If the world of hurling worked in a similar fashion to the WWE (or the WWF as a few people might remember it) then Tipperary would now, by virtue of their win over Kilkenny, be the reigning All Ireland Champions. In the wrestling world, they may have ended up winning it only after Liam Sheedy came onto the field and hit Tommy Walsh over the back of the head with a steel chair, but they’d still be the champions right now.

Of course in the real world, Kilkenny remain the kingpins and Tipperary are the number one contenders when it comes to championship honours irrespective of any league results – but that means little to punters right now, looking for winners in mid-March.

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Being honest, ever since the results from last week, Off the Ground was keeping an eye out for one fixture out of this weekend’s football matches that dripped with the potential for good value. To my immense shock and not inconsiderable disappointment, the bookmakers actually ignored history, tradition and all that stuff, and appeared to have more or less priced the game accurately.

I refer to the NFL division two encounter between Tipperary and Meath this weekend. The bookmakers have a ridiculous track record of overestimating Meath, underestimating Tipperary and failing to appreciate the importance of home advantage to the Royals – and of course the converse to that argument, which is quite how poor they are away from the familiar surroundings of Páirc Tailteann. Being truthful, I fully expected to examine this week’s prices, note a 7/2 or 3/1 beside Tipperary, circle it and advise a very large investment. Instead, a much more moderate 7/4 has been chalked down. Still good, but much shorter than it would have been even a year ago, despite both sides being more or less the same.

So far this year, Tipperary have played very competitively against Laois, struggled against a much more powerful Kildare team and secured an excellent draw in Newry. Meath scraped home against Armagh despite conceding three more scores than they took themselves, struggled in Newry and almost got nabbed by an understrength and woefully off-form Westmeath outfit.

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Usually by the end of round three, the betting for the National Football Leagues begins to look a lot simpler. In most divisions, as many as three or four counties would normally be out of the running by now, but unusually this season, very few counties are out of contention while equally, very few are still safe from the drop – notwithstanding those counties playing division four football.

Taking a helicopter view and looking down at division one first, Cork head the betting at 11/10, but this column can only speculate that there must have been plenty of money laid down on the Munster champions because this is a very short price, factoring in the football we’ve seen so far. They scraped home against Monaghan, beat a Kerry team that was very much in pre-season mode and very nearly let a huge lead slip against Galway last Saturday night on their home turf. Cork undoubtedly have ample quality, but Conor Counihan and most of the Cork supporters will know that to even win this league, much more will be required in the coming weeks.

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It’s a particularly busy weekend for a lot of the better younger footballers all across the country, with under 21 matches today and a full round of league games taking place tomorrow. Depending on how seriously managers are taking the national league and the under 21 championship, players could easily end up being asked to take part in both competitions, and from a betting point of view, that will be something to keep a close eye on when the league matches thrown in tomorrow – who will be deploying the greatest number of tired young legs.

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With two weeks of form on the table and available for assessment, taking an early view on the national football league is suddenly becoming a lot more feasible. For the first two rounds, team information is absolutely crucial as issues such as the Sigerson Cup, injuries and early season “condition” meant that it was vital to know who was lining out for each side before having a punt. Most counties were introducing plenty of younger players, unknown to the general public, and in many cases the fortunes of each team depended on how their newer recruits performed.

Now however, it’s a lot more plausible to look at the lines that are posted early in the week and possibly even attempt to beat the market before it settles by Friday evening.

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Most GAA fans would agree that it’s great to have the league back, but that there’s still nothing like championship. As a result, this weekend Sunday is definitely the day to head out for a walk, or go to the shops to look at carpets, or whatever it is that the other half would have you do – because Saturday should be an excellent day’s viewing on the box. Yours truly doesn’t get the chance to be a couch potato too often but the opportunity will certainly be taken up tomorrow, starting with the Sigerson Cup final at 2pm.

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The grand opening of the National Hurling League didn’t exactly go to plan last Saturday night with Tipperary and Kilkenny being forced to postpone their clash until tomorrow night. For followers of Off the Ground this postponement was of little use either since our even money about Tipperary is no longer available. The 8/11 currently on offer looks a lot closer to a realistic price for this match, though it could be argued that even at these prices, Tipperary are still the better betting option for those looking for a punt.

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Readers of Off the Ground could be forgiven for wondering whether or not this column will ever let a Kilmurry-Ibrickane game go by without taking an opinion one way or another, but having taken a variety of views on the Clare and Munster Champions up to this point, there’s hardly any point in stopping now. The Claremen are simply the kind of team that don’t follow the usual script when it comes to betting, and that’s ideal for the purposes of this column.

The battle hardened men from the Banner County were definitely underestimated this year in a Munster context, but it should not be forgotten that this was a Munster championship shorn of any leading contender along the lines of a Dr. Crokes or a Nemo Rangers flagship team. The first round against Dromcollogher Broadford was probably the most likely game in which Kilmurry could have slipped up and once they negotiated that challenge, they were unlikely to miss out on their Munster crown.

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Unlike previous years when the National Football League opened under the glare of Croke Park lights with thousands in attendance, this year the powers that be chose to set the NFL off with a lot less fanfare. Fixtures such as Kerry vs Dublin and Derry vs Tyrone could have been harnessed to create a sense of occasion, but overall there was no grand opening, so to speak.

The same certainly could not be said of the hurling. This Saturday night the undisputed big two counties in the game at the moment go head to head in a game that should get any small ball enthusiast salivating at the prospect. Last year Kilkenny and Tipperary went head to head in both the National Hurling League final and the All Ireland final, and in both instances supporters were treated to a humdinger of a match, with Kilkenny winning out both times. A large crowd is likely to make the trek to Tom Semple’s field in the hope of similarly competitive action this weekend, with TV cameras also on hand.

The forgotten match between these two counties last year was their meeting in Nowlan Park in the round robin stages of the league towards the end of March when Kilkenny laid down a marker with a 5-17 to 1-12 hammering. The nett result of these three results is that Kilkenny will feel that whether the game is close or not, whether they lead or trail coming into the closing stages, they should have the upper hand – and for that reason, this Saturday night’s fixture is a lot more meaningful to Tipperary than it is to Kilkenny. Of course Brian Cody would never admit it, but deep down the James Stephens man knows that a loss or two in the league tends to knock the complacency out of his players and that there is no danger of his side ever feeling inferior to Tipperary, so a win is not really as important.

For Liam Sheedy, he knows that the longer his team go without beating Kilkenny, the more of a mental block it will become to ever do so. His team have done a lot of great work to get to the stage that they’re at, nipping at the heels of the greatest team that has ever played the game, but if they don’t take out Kilkenny soon, it will all be to no avail. Nobody remembers second best, least of all in a county with a tradition like theirs. Tipperary also know more than most how psychological factors can take hold and become genuine stumbling blocks. Tipp spent many years hurling really well in Munster before crumbling in Croke Park and it took a pathetic performance from Limerick last summer to allow them to shake that monkey off their backs and the last thing they need is another simian passenger mounting their shoulders.

Of course there is a world of difference between needing to win and being able to, but on that level too, this game seems primed for a Tipperary success. Many of Kilkenny’s frontline hurlers didn’t see any Walsh Cup action, while the absence of the Ballyhale contingent will be an issue for them as well. Home support and a greater degree of familiarity with floodlit hurling should be of huge benefit to Tipp this weekend and even allowing for a couple of absentees, greater hunger and a good level of home support should push them over the line.

A 3pt bet on Tipperary to beat Kilkenny at even money is recommended for Saturday night’s fixture.

Preseason form is rarely given too much credence at the best of times, but a Walsh Cup where Kilkenny lose to both Offaly and Laois is unlikely to be regarded as anything other than a meaningless knockaround by most observers. Suffice it to say that this columnist, a long suffering Offaly man, didn’t feel the need to celebrate Offaly’s win over the Cats to any great degree and it’s probably reasonable to assume that over in Laois it’s the opening rounds of the league, where Kildare, and more importantly Clare, visit Portlaoise in rounds one and two that will be occupying Niall Rigney’s thoughts.

There is no doubt that the Kilkenny team to play Tipperary in Semple Stadium will be wholly different from the unfamiliar group who took the field against the two midland counties, but nonetheless it’s unreasonable to expect any team, even one as good as this Kilkenny side, to slip back into the groove without having played a lot hurling together so far.

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