Striking while the iron is hot

January 21st, 2009 by Kevin Egan

Having worked in the bookmaking game for the past decade and more, your writer can’t help but raise a wry smile when the airwaves and the column inches are filled with pontificating about “cleaning up” horse racing or the betting game in general. Punters will invariably express outrage when their carefully chosen wager loses value faster than your average share in an Irish Bank because of what looks like foul play, and in many cases they will vow never to bet on that crooked sport again. Whether it’s the loss of support or the loss of revenue that troubles the authorities is a moot point – what is certain is that those empowered with the development of the sport tend to make very serious statements about how this blow to punter confidence and faith must be dealt with.

Of course the racing game would be better served in the eye of the general public if every horse put in complete and total effort in every race, or if every jockey did his/her utmost to get into the places every time, but we all know that this isn’t that case, this will never be the case, and what’s more, punters don’t ever want it that way. You see, the punter who got shafted and vows never to bet again,, there’s only one way to really test if the immorality of it all is too much for them – next time that there is a race where the odds mightn’t accurately reflect the real chances of each horse winning, for whatever reason, give them the inside track in advance. Then see if they maintain their moral stance, or as is more likely, time them as they move faster than Usain Bolt down to their local bookies to try and cash in on this new found edge.

Ultimately, that’s what the punter wants – they don’t want a cleaner game, they want a corrupt sport as long as they’re the ones with the inside line when the event kicks off. This tendency is reflected in our politics as well – Irish voters like to talk about how corruption in our political system has bankrupted the nation, but until Irish voters stop electing the local guy who “knows how to get things done” (read: wouldn’t know the Constitution if they were hit on the head with it but knows how to pull strokes), this will never happen. Or to put it another way, we don’t want it to happen.

But these political debates are for other fora. GAA betting tends to be less prone to “insider info”; however it is still remarkable how bookmakers still don’t take sufficient account of information that is right in front of them. Take, for example, the current situation in Cork, widely known to every hurling follower in Ireland.

This morning, Gerald McCarthy has declared that he has no interest in continuing negotiations with the Cork players who remain on strike. He has left the door open for those who wish to return, but for now he will continue to prepare for the National Hurling league with his current panel and deal with players that make themselves available as they present themselves. More importantly, he is also enjoying the full support of the county board. What this means is that for the month of February at least, Cork will be working with what could be described as a “development panel”.

Because this panel of players are new to the world of intercounty hurling, they have a lot to learn and the likelihood is that they will absorb some very harsh lessons in the early weeks. What is also likely is that since they are still good club hurlers who will benefit from those lessons as they get up to the pace required, they will improve substantially over the course of the campaign. We saw in their clash with Waterford IT how they still have a long way to go, but rest assured that under the guidance of McCarthy, they are likely to come on as individual hurlers and as a team. Throw in a few repentant stars into the mix and you have a recipe for two completely different Cork teams, one that will struggle through the opening stages of the league and one that will finish strongly and cause real headaches for their opponents.

This of course, (eventually, you say!), leads us to our bet recommendation. On the face of things, the prices to win division one of the National Hurling League are reasonable accurate, albeit with Cork woefully under priced at 13/2. However they don’t fully account for the variances in the fixture lists, such as which teams get to play Cork early and which teams must face them after they are much more likely to have got their act together. On that basis, the recommendation is to get behind Tipperary at 11/4.

They open their campaign with a trip to Waterford, however this too is a very kind draw since Waterford are another team who will improve immeasurably as they campaign progresses. Davie Fitzgerald will know all too well that his brief is to bring the All Ireland championship back to Waterford - and having his team flying fit in early February forms no part of that agenda. He gave his players a lot of time off after their traumatic Croke Park experience in December, and is very much in experimental mode so far. Add in the unavailability of talismanic corner forward John Mullane due to club commitments and it becomes all too apparent that it will be an unfamiliar and weakened Waterford team that Tipperary will face in their campaign opener.

Two points against Waterford in round one, two points against Cork in round two and odds on to take Clare at home in round three, it is very plausible that by the time Tipp travel to Nowlan Park in round four, they will sit at the top of the table and those holding betting slips with 11/4 on them will have value on their side and may even be in a position to close off a guaranteed profit. This column recommends that you get one of those betting slips into your hand now, before the odds compilers start thinking about the information that’s all around us.

Tags: Cork, NHL, Strike, Tipperary