Goal Feasts and Goal Famines

Viewers of the live double header on RTE television tomorrow look very likely to see two very different games throwing in at 2pm and 4pm. First off is the clash of Monaghan and Derry and while Off the Ground stands by the view espoused in the previous article that Monaghan are very live contenders for this game, particularly with the two point handicap on their side, this column is nonetheless very aware that a blank sheet in terms of goals scored by the Farney men is very much a live possibility.

Tommy Freeman is a fine corner forward, but even he will struggle to break down this Derry full back line and if he can’t raise a green flag, his team-mates will find it doubly hard to do so.

At the other end of the field, the absence of Enda Muldoon has robbed Derry of one of their most disruptive forward players and without the possibility of unsettling the Monaghan defence as only a good and big full forward can do, Derry too might struggle to score any goals, as they have done all year long.

Ladbrokes are currently offering 4/5 about under 1.5 goals in this game and though the price is short, it could still offer value as these two particular leopards are unlikely to change their spots. This will be a dour and hard-fought Ulster championship game and a final score of 0-11 to 0-9 is eminently possible. In this climate, Off the Ground is happy to recommend a 3pt bet on Derry vs Monaghan to have under 1.5 goals at 4/5.

In complete contrast to this clash, the meeting of Kildare and Offaly will then be broadcast and it will be quite the shock if the twines aren’t rattled on a few occasions here. Both managers have named very attacking teams and in each case, it looks as if the forwards have the beating of their opponents. Offaly’s full back line consists of one marker, one old school full back who had a few tough days in the Spring, and one all round footballer who will be making his debut and who normally plays at wing back or even half forward. The half back line contains two very attacking footballers on the wing either side of a centre back also making his first intercounty championship start.

This is not dis-similar to the Kildare set up, with the Lilies lining out a very strong centre back in Brian Flanagan who will carry a lot of responsibility, surrounded as he is by two extremely attack minded wing backs, one makeshift full back and two debutant corners.

When one also considers that both sides have gone for scoring forwards as opposed to workmanlike trackers in their half forward lines as well, it’s clear that neither team is in this to win on a scoreline of 1-6 to 0-7. With Ladbrokes offering 15/8 about over 2.5 goals, a 2pt bet is certainly merited on this selection.

Finally, Off the Ground also suggests a small nibble on Seán Armstrong to be first goalscorer for Galway against London at the odds of 5/1. Kevin McMenamin’s withdrawal has taken away London’s main goalscoring threat and the Galway team named on paper is somewhat deceptive, unless Liam Sammon is going to surprise a lot of people. Galway insiders are of the belief that Armstrong and Michael Meehan will form a two man full forward line with Padraig and Nicky Joyce pulling out the field. In that scenario, while Meehan is always a clear goal threat of his own, Armstrong will obviously be another front runner in the runner - however his selection at number ten might have thrown off the compilers a little bit on this one.

As with all first goalscorer bets, a considerable dollop of luck will be needed to collect, however a 1pt bet on Armstrong to score first goal at 5/1 is justified in the hope that lady luck chooses to smile.

Tags: Armstrong, Goals, over/under

Categories: Gaelic Football

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