Galway the solid selection

July 23rd, 2009 by Kevin Egan

It’s not difficult to make a case for either Galway or Waterford this weekend. Galway have been very impressive so far this season, competing well against Kilkenny before securing solid and well deserved wins over Clare and Cork. They’ve clearly addressed a few key problem positions on the field, and Joe Canning is no longer their only outlet for scores.

Waterford on the other hand have been really struggling to ignite and if anything they have taken over from Galway and become hurling’s main one man show, with John Mullane making a legitimate case for a hurler of the year award amidst a team which has otherwise been lethargic and disappointing. Nonetheless it should not be forgotten that they have been trained all year to peak around now and they also secured a few huge wins last season when, it could be argued, their form was no better than it is at the moment. 9/4 looks to be a huge price about a team that has not lost to Galway in their last seven championship meetings, though it must be said that most of those games are a part of history rather than form. If Waterford do get their act together they could cause Galway a lot of problems, but unfortunately that looks like a big “if”.

Ollie Canning is still one of the best corner backs in Ireland and if he can even break even with Mullane, as I expect him to, Galway should win this well. Waterford may surprise us, but it’s always best to bet based on what’s likely rather than what’s possible. Galway minus three points is a great bet at 5/6 and well worth a 4pt stake.

Of course the absence of Shane Kavanagh is a blow, but Galway have put more solid form on the table in the past two weeks than they previously managed in about five years. Even if Waterford do put it up to them, they could still cover this handicap, and Off the Ground suspects that this one could be out the door by half time – in which case the opportunity may present itself for an in-running bet to try and land a middle.

The Limerick vs Dublin game is an altogether trickier fixture to get a handle on, but the gut feeling is that the bookmakers are still not giving Dublin credit for what they’ve achieved. They deserve to be favourites here, but serious question marks remain about whether they can go toe to toe with a team like Limerick and beat them rather than just drop and extra man back and hang in, as they did against Kilkenny. Nonetheless Limerick have been very disappointing this year and Dublin are possibly a bit of value, just not enough to recommend a bet.

The best bet in this game could be a speculative 1pt wager on under 1.5 goals at 3/1. Both of these teams have scored an anaemic two goals in three games so far, but equally both sides have been defensively competitive. Dublin conceded two goals to Kilkenny and one to Wexford after a clean sheet against Antrim, while Limerick have yet to concede a goal in three outings. With a low scoring encounter likely, neither side is likely to have to specifically chase goals and with that in mind, it would be very easy to see this bet offering real value, much more so than siding with either team in what should be a close encounter, and possibly one with something in it for draw backers.

Tags: Dublin, Galway, Goals, Limerick