Tread warily when picking big handicap outsiders
November 7th, 2009 by Kevin EganAs the rain continues to pour down, it’s safe to say that a lot of shrewd bettors will be looking for big handicaps this weekend, hoping to pick out games where covering a large spread will be very difficult in mucky, wintry conditions. However looking at the lines on offer this week, it appears that the bookmakers are making allowances for this, and as a result, punters should tread warily before piling into the outsiders with three and four point head starts. They are already paying a premium for the weather in the prices on offer, and trying to find value after incorporating that premium won’t be easy.
Of those more likely to be considered by people looking for steady, dependable teams, Rathnew plus three points at 6/5 is probably the most attractive of the outsiders on offer. However Rathnew are already recommended at 3/1 as a match bet in this column and we’re happy with that position, there is no need to overdo it. That said, those who like to play the game a little bit more conservatively, and who haven’t already gone in on the match betting, might like to pay close attention to this price. Derrygonnelly at 4/5 plus four is also a justifiable bet with Loup unlikely to open up, however 4/5 is quite short and perhaps robs the value out of this one.
Glencar/Manorhamilton plus four is simply not a good bet as there is a gulf in quality between the Leitrim champions and their Galway counterparts. Corofin would only have to play at 70% capacity to win by more than a goal here and this is actually one game where, even allowing for the injury to Alan O’Donovan, one could buck the trend and go with the favourites.
However instead, we’re going to look at Portlaoise minus three, priced at 5/6. Of all the handicap bets out there, no matter what the weather, this one stands out. Portlaoise have been hugely impressive this season, and though the loss of Zach Tuohy due his travelling to Australia robs them of a very lively half forward, they are still very well placed to advance here. Seneschalstown only won their county championship last Thursday night after two very hard fought games against Wolfe Tones, and it would require a superhuman effort for their players to be fit to compete to the full of their ability this Sunday. Obviously the celebrations will have been put on hold, that’s not the concern, but quite simply it’s too soon after a really difficult challenge to be trying to step up another level again, against what is almost certainly the best football team in the Leinster Championship.
With Portlaoise also enjoying home advantage, they can win this with plenty to spare. There is no danger of Seneschalstown collapsing in the manner that Mattock Rangers did, however they are still likely to be five or six points in arrears by the end of tomorrow’s game. A 3pt bet on Portlaoise minus three points at 5/6 is the recommendation.
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Tags: Handicap betting, Portlaoise
Categories: Gaelic Football
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