Clontibret undervalued against Belfast's finest

St Galls are an excellent club team and worthy favourites this weekend, but 9/4 outsiders against a very decent Clontibret O’Neills team is simply incorrect. Due to their consistency in Ulster competition in recent seasons and allied to the absence of many traditionally powerful clubs, Galls were well fancied to lift this Ulster crown from early on. Two solid but unspectacular wins over Cavan Gaels and Pearse Óg have confirmed what we already knew – that the Belfast club will not go down easily.

That said, it must be noted that Cavan Gaels and Pearse Óg are substantially weaker than Clontibret, who represent huge value to reach a final at the odds currently quoted. Cavan Gaels are respected due to their consistent track record in Cavan, but Cavan football is at an all time low right now, and the standard required to win a county championship up there is much lower these days. Gaels would be competitive in any county, but the fall from grace of traditionally competitive clubs such as Gowna and Mullahoran have stripped the Breffni County championship of any real edge. Their name carries much more weight than their football in recent years.

Pearse Óg were of course very new to Ulster competition and were never likely to make a substantial run, even if the credentials of any team that beats Crossmaglen Rangers cannot be doubted. That they kept Galls in touch for the hour is in fact a sign of concern from the Blues’ perspective.

Clontibret, on the other hand, have been a very strong club in a very competitive county for some time, and their array of talent is up there with the best clubs in the province. The extra week’s delay due to the rain made a huge difference to them in that it allowed Conor McManus to get a bit closer to full fitness, and this had a big bearing on their win over Dromore, with McManus scoring freely. JP Mone came off the bench to add another couple of scores and with these two stalwarts likely to be back on board at full strength, they are very much the best value of the four football teams playing this weekend.

A 3pt bet on Clontibret plus two points at even money is recommended, though smaller stakers may wish to just take the 9/4 and have a covering bet on the draw.

In the other Ulster semi final, Loup play Kilcoo in Casement Park and it would be hard to look beyond the Derry champions here. They have a 100% record in Ulster competition and a quarter-final tie against a moderate Derrrygonnelly side was perfect for them to settle into Ulster competition. Kilcoo’s win over St Eunans was a mild surprise, though the capacity for Eunans to underperform outside of their native county in unsurpassed in Ireland, but the Down champions might lack the resolve necessary to grind out a win against the best defence left in the Ulster championship. Loup minus one point at 10/11 is an interesting bet, and definitely the best option for those who definitely want to have a bet on this game, however selective punters would do well to leave this one aside and stick with the Farney boys to do the honours this week.