On your marks
December 15th, 2009 by Kevin EganWe commented in a previous post that there were a couple of the leagues that appeared to offer each way value, but despite our original intention to hold off making any recommendations until the new year in order to see which counties were starting the season at full pace, the recent experimental rule changes has forced our hand somewhat, meaning that it’s well worth taking an early punt just in case the price were to move, which is not unlikely.
Despite the notional ban on intercounty training, one would do well to find an inactive county all across Ireland at the moment, with managers looking to find the extra edge that will propel their sides forward in 2010. The Christmas period in particular is likely to be quite arduous for many players, with the trend of managers using the holidays to suss out how much players are interested in the “sacrifices” currently very prominent.
Obviously it is not for this column to openly accuse any particular county of flouting the rules, however what we can say for certain is that Kildare have been very kindly treated by the Leinster championship draw and securing their first Leinster title since the turn of the millenium is very much on the agenda. It appears that they are doing everything possible to hit the ground running in this regard. Kieran McGeeney’s charges will be (ahem) training with Summer rather than Autumn in mind, and are likely to reach their cruising speed very early on during the national league campaign.
At 10/3, this column’s sponsors are best price about Kildare securing the Division two league title on the way, and right now, that price looks like excellent value for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, based on 2009 form and their underage pedigree in recent seasons, Kildare are simply the best team in this division, probably by a couple of points over their nearest rivals. Indeed Meath would be close enough to them on championship form, but the Royals’ indifference to the league is unsurpassed in Ireland. Kildare do face four away fixtures this season, but Thurles, Navan and Portlaoise are all relatively handy venues and only their trip to Armagh looks particularly daunting. Away trips to Ulster venues are always awkward, and McGeeney will be happy that Down and Donegal both must travel to Newbridge.
However what tipped us over the edge was the implementation of the new “mark” rule. With the possible exception of Meath, or Westmeath at a push, no team possesses the level of high fielding skill that is at McGeeney’s disposal. Whether he chooses Daryl Flynn, Dermot Early, Ronan Sweeney or any one of several other options in the eight and nine jerseys, he will have two serious fielders to aim at and the mark rule has just made this kind of power very difficult to counteract. Creating scores from free kicks at midfield is far from straightforward, but it’s certainly no harm to have the chance. Kildare and perhaps Cork are the two sides in the country most suited to this new rule, and with Cork having secured promotion in 2009, this must surely be the Lilywhites’ year.
At 10/3 and a third the odds, that works out at just over 11/10 a place, and with so many teams looking way off the pace in this league which right now has two tiers, that’s too good to turn down.
A 3pt each way bet on Kildare to win NFL division 2 is hereby put on the record, and while nobody likes putting money away after the budget we’ve just endured, this looks like one of the best tax-free investments around at the moment.
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Tags: Division two, Kildare, mark, NFL
Categories: Gaelic Football
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Comments (1)
[...] odds which are still available right now. The logic behind that post is explained here – http://betdiary.com/kevinegan/2009/12/15/on-your-marks/ – so there is no need to go through it again, other than to say that the passing of a month [...]