Best foot fourward
January 19th, 2010 by Kevin EganIn the general betting universe, the recession can sometimes work slightly differently to how it affects the rest of the world. The usual response to a downturn in economic conditions is not that bookmakers do much better, as is often perceived to be the case, but that they strike many more bets at a much lower average stake. Overall turnover usually declines, however this decline is compensated for by the fact that punters are looking for the same big payouts off much smaller stakes and thus they generally place accumulators, or other high margin bets, rather than picking off the value.
From a discerning punter’s point of view, where value is always the key, whether the starting bank is €100 or €100,000, a recession is usually not good news since it can mean an end to the “easy money” for many layers. The response to this from the bookmaking community would often be to cut back on innovation, eliminating those products which are more difficult to price, and to focus instead on more “jackpot” style bets – special multiples paying out big sums, complicated first scorer/winning margin doubles and other bets paying 20/1 or more.
In that light, it was all the more encouraging to see Ladbrokes pricing up their new “Top 4” market for division one of the NFL. It’s reasonable to presume that the level of turnover in the next week or so will determine whether or not we see similar markets created for the other divisions, but even if this is as far as the offering is extended, it’s still good to see and is to be encouraged in the betting community in general.
Regarding their actual pricing, most of the counties appear to be reasonably accurately assessed. Kerry’s price of 1/5 about their finishing in the top four may appear quite short when one considers that the Kingdom are happy to win the National League, but quite unperturbed about their fortunes in the competition nonetheless. Instead the short odds are a reflection of the fact that they still tend to be difficult to beat in the league due to their incredible strength in depth, even if they are playing with August and September in mind.
Likewise at the other end, Monaghan are a fiercely competitive side, but one or two injuries would hit them very hard and they will have their work cut out for themselves dodging relegation. Their odds of 5/2 to finish in the top four may look generous, but there doesn’t appear to be any real value there either, albeit more than there is in the 1/4 about a bottom four finish.
Tyrone’s track record in the national league was strong up until a couple of seasons ago, and even though their championship record remains impressive, they are no longer so metronomic in the league that teams are guaranteed to crumble under them. Results like their narrow win over Westmeath last year, a game that the Red Hands should have lost, simply would not have happened back in the middle of the decade.
Mayo and Derry are ostensibly among the bottom tier of counties in this division but remain difficult to beat, particularly at home, so their odds seem accurate enough too. If forced to bet, this column would lean towards the 6/5 about Derry finishing in the top four and the 8/13 about Mayo finishing in the bottom half, but not so much that a bet would be recommended.
Galway too could go either way under the stewardship of Joe Kernan and could not be backed or opposed with confidence, which leaves only Cork and Dublin as our betting opportunities – and now we hit the real value. In terms of championship football, Cork, with two All Ireland appearances in the past three seasons, are undoubtedly at a higher level than the Dubs, but that doesn’t mean that they are suddenly way superior, merely that bit better able to deliver in All Ireland quarter and semi finals. In league football, the Dubs have been very consistent in recent seasons while Cork have been a little bit more hit and miss.
When a bookmaker disagrees with you, it’s always useful to know why, and in this instance it’s probably fair to say that the home draw for Cork is the big factor. Both sides have three home games in their fixtures against other teams, but when they are scheduled to meet just after the halfway point of the campaign, the tie will be played in Páirc Uí Chaoimh.
However in this writer’s case, that is compensated for by the scheduling. Kerry’s struggles in round one of the league are by now legendary and whether or not there is an underlying reason for this, it cannot be ignored – and Dublin have the benefit of playing Kerry in the opening round of games. With Dublin’s infamous training regime likely to have the boys in blue firing on all cylinders relatively early, they could pull off a surprise here.
For Cork, it’s the opposite. They meet Monaghan in round one – a team that most counties will be looking to beat, but one that is likely to get their best results early on; according to our look at Ulster counties and their performances in the opening round fixtures of league campaigns last week.
Cork probably should be favoured to edge out Dublin overall, but only marginally – the odds posted on Ladbrokes.com suggest that a bigger disparity exists between the teams than is genuinely the case. In the interests of spreading the risk, the best policy here is to have a 1.5pt bet on Cork to finish in the bottom four at 5/2, and a further 1.5pt bet on Dublin to finish in the top four at 2/1. These bets should each be odds against, but not to the extent that they are, and as we’ve discussed at length, whether in recession or boom, value remains the key criterion for any punter looking to post a black figure in his profit and loss accounts.
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Categories: Gaelic Football
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