Marketing gurus would probably look at the GAA starting their season up against the Six Nations and think that such madness leaves county boards with no chance of packing out their grounds. Certainly this column has often mentioned how a little bit more promotion and indeed a little better promotion from the mandarins in Croke Park certainly wouldn’t go amiss at times, but then you look at the action we were treated to at the weekend and you realise that in the main, Gaelic Games promote themselves. The light is kept under a basket, but even couch potatoes were well treated at the weekend with a wide range of top quality action on display.
The meeting of Derry and Tyrone was very hard fought, with plenty of excellent scores and fast paced play to savour, Meath and Armagh was a roller coaster ride which could have gone either way at the end, and Dublin went to Killarney and really put it up to the All Ireland champions in another very keenly fought contest. Cork and Monaghan played out an incredible shoutout up in Ulster, while there were plenty of other tense finishes and strong performances to savour all over the country.
The markets have since been revised and with new information to hand, we’ll have a quick rundown of the divisions and see if any value has cropped up.
In division one, it looks as if the market has over-reacted hugely to Cork’s win over Monaghan. Monaghan weren’t going well enough to expect to win without hitting top gear in this match, and while an away win is crucial, Cork won’t beat too many other division one teams with defensive displays where they concede 3-12. Indeed none of the top three teams in the current betting list looked good at the weekend, and while Kerry usually lose round one of the NFL so it would be foolish to write them off for doing so again, it would be a brave man who would bet in favour of any of the leading teams.
Tyrone now face a huge home tie against Mayo this weekend and their price of 4/1 looks crazily short when one factors in that Mayo have enjoyed a reasonable amount of success against the Red Hands in recent years. The last five league meetings have seen each team record two wins and one draw, but remarkably both Mayo successes were in Healy Park in Omagh. Travelling to the home of the Ulster Champions will hold no fears for John O’Mahony’s men and bearing in mind that a Tyrone defeat would leave Mickey Harte’s lads with a mountain to climb, 4/1 is too short. Indeed one suspects that Harte won’t worry too much about his team’s form at this time of year, instead laying a lot more store by how his players do against Cork, Kerry and Dublin later in the campaign.
Dublin’s win in Kerry will be a huge boost to them, but the real value in this division may lie within their opponents next Saturday night in Parnell Park. Derry’s win over Tyrone, without Paddy Bradley, Enda Muldoon and several other key players, proved that they are once again flying in the national league. They won in Dublin last year under lights and a repeat result would leave them in great form going into the mini-break. At 13/2, they could be worth a speculative punt. Mayo too might be a touch of value, but with so much uncertainty over where Galway are at and the merit of that win, the value appears to lie in the two counties that will feature on Setanta Sports one next week.
Our division two recommendation of backing Kildare but covering on the Ulster counties didn’t really go well this weekend with Down turning over the Lilies and Meath edging out Armagh. However as we stated, Meath generally do really well in Navan but perform very poorly away from Páirc Tailteann, so their installation as favourites might prove a little premature. If Down can eliminate their inconsistency they might cause a few surprises, but they remain the most likely of the strong teams to slip up against either Westmeath or Tipperary. At 4/1, Donegal are the county that look most interesting right now. They have four home games to come and one of their two away trips is to Tipperary, where winning is certainly well within their reach. Obviously it would be way too soon to say that 4/1 is an each way bet to nothing and it will be difficult to sustain their current good form for months on end, but in racing parlance they are on the bridle right now and look to have a bit more in the tank for when it’s needed.
In division three, every team looks capable of beating each other, with the exception of Roscommon who don’t look capable of beating even the Roscommon Juniors. The other three games all went with home advantage, meaning that the wide open betting market looks reasonably accurate. Antrim winning with so many key absentees was probably the most impressive performance of the lot, though right now no team could be punted with confidence here.
In division four, the most significant result was Clare’s win over Wicklow in Cusack Park. This writer has always had great respect for the level of talent that exists in Clare football and has constantly been disappointed by their take it or leave it attitude to the national league. A wonderful opportunity now exists for them to kick on and make a real drive for promotion, and at the risk of fool-me-twice, they look very appealing at 8/1 right now. Their next three games are away to Kilkenny, home to Leitrim and away to London – they are long odds on to be operating with a perfect record by the time they welcome Carlow to Ennis where they should be favourites as well. It’s highly plausible that they will enter the closing rounds needing perhaps only two points from their games against Longford, Limerick and Waterford to secure a place in the final – and in a one off game, they would give anybody in this league a run. At 8/1, a 1pt each way bet on Clare to win division four has to be struck.
