Week one form worth carefully watching
February 12th, 2010 by Kevin EganDespite following hot on the heels of round one and the first genuine results of the season, the second round of the National Football League can often be full of pitfalls for those looking at form to guide their betting strategy. For example, last year in the first round of the league, Armagh travelled to Wexford and scored 4-16 in Wexford Park, while Laois got hammered at home to Kildare, 0-16 to 1-8. But in round 2, Laois travelled up to Armagh and came away with a three point win, scuppering a lot of favourite backers in the process. Also in round one, Limerick travelled to Louth and put in an atrocious performance, losing by almost treble scores, while Roscommon demolished Offaly in Kiltoom, albeit an Offaly team riddled with dissention under Richie Connor. In Round two, Limerick turned over the Sheepstealers, completely making a mockery of this form.
Upsets can happen in any match, but the first round of the league can be a lot more misleading than many people give it credit for, meaning that punters should tread warily before accepting the form as automatically sound.
This weekend in division one, the two most disappointing teams of round one in the top flight, Galway and Monaghan, meet each other in Pearse Stadium. On paper, losing by a point to Cork is no disgrace, but for Monaghan, a home game against a Cork side who had little or no collective training done represented a huge opportunity to pick up some points, points that they are likely to find very hard to come by in this group. To score 3-12 and still end up empty handed has to be hugely disappointing, and for psychological reasons alone, Galway are in a better place than them right now. There should be a backlash after being humiliated by their neighbours, while Joe Kernan should also realise that he can ill afford to leave Michael Meehan twiddling his thumbs again.
10/11 about Galway minus one point looks like the best bet of the weekend in division one, simply because there is no way these players can afford a second consecutive atrocity. With home advantage, plenty to prove and Monaghan likely to be in a “maybe we’re not that badly off” mindset, it looks much more likely to result in a Galway win.
The most interesting division two clash is likely to be that on Saturday night between Down and Meath in Newry. As we discussed last week, home advantage is huge for Meath, so backing them on the road, even at 15/8, is simply not for this column or this columnist. Having said that, the price is still much more appealing than the 8/15 about Down, who do throw in the occasional dire performance. Down are always worth a look as outsiders, but they are not good bearers of the favourites’ crown.
Limerick, Clare, Waterford and Wicklow should all win in Division four, and if you must do a multiple, Wicklow at 1/3 are the best value of the lot. No real single punting opportunity exists.
Rounding off, division three contains some of the most evenly matched teams in Ireland, as people are tiring of hearing due to the overuse of that as a cliché at this stage. Fermanagh should beat Roscommon at home, but outside of that any team from the other six could secure a win. The team that caught this column’s eye was Louth at 7/4 to beat Sligo. Sligo are entitled to be favourites here, but it might be worth gambling on whether or not Louth can keep their early season form going on that bit longer this year. The Wee county boys are probably tired of hearing how great a team they are in January and after a good opening round win, they can cause problems for Sligo, particularly around midfield where Paddy Keenan is going as strong as ever. Sligo have a few very sharp inside forwards who could cause problems for Louth’s inside line backs, but after they did such a good job keeping Wexford to four points from play and a junk time goal, it might be worth backing them to step up again.
Both sides featured in narrow margin games last week, so the best ploy might be to take the handicap in this game – a 2pt bet on Louth plus one point at 5/4 is this week’s main recommendation.
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Categories: Gaelic Football
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