Hurling

Kilkenny worth opposing early

February 17th, 2010 by Kevin Egan

Preseason form is rarely given too much credence at the best of times, but a Walsh Cup where Kilkenny lose to both Offaly and Laois is unlikely to be regarded as anything other than a meaningless knockaround by most observers. Suffice it to say that this columnist, a long suffering Offaly man, didn’t feel the need to celebrate Offaly’s win over the Cats to any great degree and it’s probably reasonable to assume that over in Laois it’s the opening rounds of the league, where Kildare, and more importantly Clare, visit Portlaoise in rounds one and two that will be occupying Niall Rigney’s thoughts.

There is no doubt that the Kilkenny team to play Tipperary in Semple Stadium will be wholly different from the unfamiliar group who took the field against the two midland counties, but nonetheless it’s unreasonable to expect any team, even one as good as this Kilkenny side, to slip back into the groove without having played a lot hurling together so far.

Hurling under lights is tricky for those who aren’t that used to it, and the Saturday night fixture should maximise Tipperary’s home advantage. They are missing a few key players of their own, including James Woodlock at midfield, but their more settled team and their more advanced training could drive them home in this tie.

Looking at the outright odds however, it might not be the 15/8 Tipperary that is out of kilter – it could be the 11/10 about Kilkenny. Away trips to Semple Stadium and Páirc Uí Chaoimh in the first three weeks of the league will test the Cats a lot more than it would have done last year, while generally speaking the fixture list hasn’t been kind. They play Offaly and Cork early in the year, who are relatively forward in their training and could be more competitive than they might have been if Kilkenny had more time, they play Galway when all the Portumna players will be available, they play Limerick and Waterford in the final two weeks when Limerick might have sorted out their issues and when Waterford should have their big names back on board, and they have four away ties. Brian Cody won’t mind any of this in terms of testing his players, but for the purposes of guaranteeing a place in the top two, it was the worst schedule possible and missing out on the final is a real possibility.

However if 11/10 for Kilkenny is too short but 15/8 for Tipp is not too big, the value must be elsewhere – and it is, in the 9/2 about Galway.

Off the Ground has generally been a Doubting Thomas when it comes to the Galway hurlers and on paper, there is no reason why this year should be any different to all the others. They have plenty of good underage players to pick from, but that’s nothing new, any more than is their outstanding strength in depth. They still rely a lot on Joe Canning, but the way they scored freely in the Walsh Cup without the Portumna prodigy was quite impressive. The absence of the Portumna lads might suggest that Galway could be a little short on class, but realistically, only their trip to Semple Stadium in the first four rounds looks like the sort of game where losing is a realistic possibility. Limerick and Waterford in rounds one and two should be easy meat in their current situations, while Offaly in week four are unlikely to be able to turn over the Tribesmen in Pearse Stadium.

Week five is the critical trip to Nowlan Park, but Galway have hurled well against Kilkenny in recent years and with the Cannings, the Hayes’ and all the rest likely to be back on board by then, they could cause the Cats a lot of problems. Even if they don’t return from the Marble City with a result, home wins over Dublin and Cork in the final rounds could still be enough to get into the top two.

A 3pt bet on Galway to win NHL division one is recommended, with a 1.5pt saver on Tipperary at 15/8.

Division two is going to be won by one of Wexford or Clare – even if either of those counties do lose once to a lesser light, they certainly won’t do so twice and the round robin plus final system gives them that safety net. The trick to a profitable bet here is not to look for the county most likely to finish first, but look for the county out of these two most likely to slip up and most in danger of missing out on the final, and opposing them – and on those grounds, Wexford are the value.

Clare do host the Wexfordmen in the round robin stages, however between two relatively well matched teams, any result is possible. If Clare were to lose that, as is possible even if not probable, then they cannot drop further points elsewhere – and this is where they will start to sweat. The three danger teams in this group are Laois, Antrim and Carlow – and Clare must travel to each of these teams. One slip up, particularly in Casement Park, could be very costly.

If this league ends up in a final between the expected two, then the odds are certainly correct – but as things stand, Clare are marginally more likely to miss out on the top two than Wexford and for that reason they should be swerved.

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