Early lines point to an Antrim wager

With two weeks of form on the table and available for assessment, taking an early view on the national football league is suddenly becoming a lot more feasible. For the first two rounds, team information is absolutely crucial as issues such as the Sigerson Cup, injuries and early season “condition” meant that it was vital to know who was lining out for each side before having a punt. Most counties were introducing plenty of younger players, unknown to the general public, and in many cases the fortunes of each team depended on how their newer recruits performed.

Now however, it’s a lot more plausible to look at the lines that are posted early in the week and possibly even attempt to beat the market before it settles by Friday evening.

Very few followers of gaelic games would have picked up on this, but the last few weeks haven’t been great for the bookmakers as favourites have overperformed. Dublin’s upset win over Tipperary yesterday will have killed a lot of accumulator bets, but equally many punters would have left off Tipperary since they were away from home and didn’t have the benefit of a first round run out. If you are a favourite backer and you did leave Tipp off your coupon, chances are you were paid out. The other three division one favourites won without breaking sweat, and while the same couldn’t be said of Clare in division two, the Banner men still got past the post, as did the other three favourites, Antrim, Wexford and Carlow.

The first weekend of the hurling was no different, as was week two of the NFL – so bookmakers are definitely running scared of accumulator bets right now, and that’s pretty evident in the prices on offer at the moment. Down, Meath, London and Wicklow are the four shortest price favourites of the weekend and while they should all win, there is no value in the prices on offer. Indeed Tipperary at 11/2 could surprise Down in Newry, given the Mourne men’s propensity to throw in one very wobbly performance every league campaign.

For real value however, it’s the teams priced at 4/7 or better that we’re looking at right now. Kerry will certainly get plenty of support at 4/7 for their home game against Derry as home advantage is likely to play a big part, while they will also find it a lot easier to cope without their under 21 players – both sides are preparing for big championship ties against local rivals in that grade over the following seven days. Louth at 8/11 will make plenty of appeal at home to a Cavan team that looked quite vulnerable in Casement Park and this column would certainly be inclined towards keeping a close eye on the Wee men, but it’s Cavan’s conquerers that day which stand out most to this column.

Some would probably argue that St Gall’s victory in the All Ireland Club semi-final was a blow to Antrim’s chances, but their alternate players, who have stepped into the breach in the absence of the McGourty’s, Niblock, Gallagher and company, have all performed really well and they come into this match in a great vein of form. If anything, the Ulster finalists from last summer are likely to be well served by continuity. Fermanagh on the other hand will travel to Casement Park with no such confidence and looking nothing like the preseason favourites that they were assessed as before a ball was thrown into any game in this division. Their defeat in Tullamore was disappointing but forgiveable as they played over half the game with fourteen men and had a terrible day at the office in front of the posts. However to barely scrape home against Roscommon was much more alarming. A slightly different refereeing style could have changed the course of that game completely and to only score eight times against a team that conceded 2-20 the previous week bodes ill for the potential of their forward line to deliver the 14 points plus that they will need this Saturday night.

Martin McGrath and Eamonn Maguire continue to miss out and their quality is conspicuously absent in a team that has really laboured without so many key starters. Antrim beat Down in a warm up challenge match recently and seem to be playing too well to be denied here. A 3pt bet on Antrim to beat Fermanagh at 4/6 is well worth taking right now, with every possibility that this price could move in even further once it is confirmed that Fermanagh won’t be welcoming back all their big names just yet.

Categories: Gaelic Football