Football leagues still wide open

March 8th, 2010 by Kevin Egan

Usually by the end of round three, the betting for the National Football Leagues begins to look a lot simpler. In most divisions, as many as three or four counties would normally be out of the running by now, but unusually this season, very few counties are out of contention while equally, very few are still safe from the drop – notwithstanding those counties playing division four football.

Taking a helicopter view and looking down at division one first, Cork head the betting at 11/10, but this column can only speculate that there must have been plenty of money laid down on the Munster champions because this is a very short price, factoring in the football we’ve seen so far. They scraped home against Monaghan, beat a Kerry team that was very much in pre-season mode and very nearly let a huge lead slip against Galway last Saturday night on their home turf. Cork undoubtedly have ample quality, but Conor Counihan and most of the Cork supporters will know that to even win this league, much more will be required in the coming weeks.

11/10 outright suggests that Cork are 1/3 or shorter to finish in the top two, and that seems bizarrely short right now. Even if we assume that two wins out of four will be enough, which it probably will, none of their remaining four games are what could be termed a “gimme”. Certainly this weekend’s trip to Omagh should be fraught with danger, with Tyrone now badly in need of points to get off the foot of the table. After that Dublin come to town, and while Cork will be favourites for that match, Dublin have been playing just as impressively this season and have already taken one away win out of Munster so will be confident of repeating the trick.

Round six sees them travelling up to Celtic Park where Derry are usually very strong also, before ending the league with a home match against Mayo. Cork are odds on to finish in the top three certainly, but 11/10 is way too short, which of course leads us to the obvious follow on – where does the value lie if not with the market leaders?

Dublin’s three wins, including two away from Parnell Park, have put them in an excellent position but even so, 9/4 is plenty short enough about them too. Kerry at 7/1 are obviously a threat, but Galway’s late comeback will have restored some confidence out west and chances are that it might be better to leave that docket unstamped for another week until we see if Kerry are really returning to form.

Despite losing twice, Derry at 14/1 are still well in with a shout and could easily come right back into contention in the coming weeks while their opponents Mayo have four points on the board and could feature also, but with three home games still to come, it’s Galway who might be worth keeping on side. They looked awful in the first half of their match with Cork but they still dug deep to come up with plenty of scores and with three games to come in Pearse Stadium, they are definitely dark horses to finish out with consecutive wins and to sneak a final spot. They haven’t played well enough at all so far but the more time that the Corofin lads get to bed back in the better Galway will become, and a win this weekend could change things completely. Probably not huge value, but certainly the standout price in that division right now.

In division two, Laois, Tipp and Westmeath have all effectively ruled themselves out of contention, but it’s interesting to look at what the other counties have done and how the market has reacted to their results so far. Meath have done what Meath do – won games at home by narrow margins and lost away from home, and there is no reason to think that they are any better than we thought originally. They were no value back in early February, they are no value now at 7/2 until they prove that they can win league games away from Páirc Tailteann against decent opponents.

Kildare have struggled with injuries and suspensions but still have four points in the bag. They were a good bet at 11/4 before the start, at 7/2 they look hugely overpriced. The value of their win over Donegal cannot be overstated and right now they are in a situation where wins over Laois and Westmeath, as one would expect them to get, plus one win over either Armagh or Meath away would put them in a league final. Armagh and Meath are two tough places to go, but Kildare will hold no fear travelling to either venue and the likelihood is that they will pick up the away win that they need. If you backed them before the start at 11/4, hold firm, but if not, now is a good time to go in again.

Donegal had a chance to prove their worth yesterday and blew it spectacularly, so it defies belief that they would now trade at a shorter price than they were at the start of the season. Yes they beat Laois at home and yes they won well in Westmeath, but it’s the games against the Ulster sides and the Lilies that will make the difference in this division and they still seem to be one step behind their peers at this level.

Armagh on the other hand , despite also only having secured wins over the midland counties, are a real danger as they appear to be rediscovering some of their spirit and indomitability. Dropping points in Portlaoise last Saturday night would have been very costly, but they dug deep and picked up a massive win. Their full forward line of Ryan Henderson, Ronan Clarke and the evergreen Stephen McDonnell looks like a potent unit and at 7/2, they are in with every chance, even if they do have a tough run in still to come. Their match this weekend against Kildare should be a cracker and it’s very disappointing that the powers that be in TG4 didn’t think outside the box and make the sojourn to Crossmaglen for what should be a fierce contest.

Finally we have Down, who shocked the nation with their first round win in Newbridge, and did so again by failing to beat Tipperary in Newry on Saturday. Or to be more accurate – they shocked the nation of barstool pundits in both cases, but they didn’t shock anyone who knew anything about Down football and their propensity to compete with the best and drop points where least expected, one week after another. With five points in the bag they are of course in a strong position, but they can’t be trusted against any opponent and at 5/2, are probably more of a lay than a back. Armagh and Kildare are definitely the value options as things stand.

Division three is somewhat different in that Roscommon appear to be very poor, Antrim are a cut above the rest and everyone else is somewhere in the middle. Don’t be fooled by Roscommon’s late comeback against Offaly last weekend – that was simply down to Offaly’s mental fragility and failure to close out a game. Roscommon didn’t create their scores so much as Offaly handed them to them, and they should continue their voyage to division four.

Sligo’s run in looks kind so they should yet come into contention, however other than them, it’s hard to see anyone emerging from the pack to challenge Antrim. Wexford’s status as second favourites is justified in that they should beat both Ros and Fermanagh, could easily beat Cavan and have Antrim in the final game when the Saffrons could be home and hosed. Still, when one allows for the St Galls players returning to this Antrim team, it looks more and more like their place in the last twelve of last year’s All Ireland series was no fluke. At 13/8, Antrim are a very decent bet right now and could easily be backed, possibly each way.

In division four, the hypnotic effect of Mick O’Dwyer appears to be as strong as ever. How it makes the slightest bit of sense for Wicklow to be 3/1 while Clare continue to trade at 8/1 when Clare have already beaten Wicklow is frankly a mystery to this writer. Limerick are very much the class act of this division and they should come out on top, but at 2/5 they are accurately rather than excessively priced.

Wicklow beat an understrength Carlow team yesterday and face two tricky weeks in a row, two weeks in which Clare should be picking up easy points. It’s very plausible that in round seven, when Clare travel to Longford and Wicklow travel to Waterford, the Banner county will only have to match the Garden boys to guarantee their place in the decider. If a match bet was to be offered between these counties Clare should be odds on – so even allowing for Wicklow having slightly more pedigree in a league final, these prices look to be almost the wrong way around. Again, this column has already recommended a wager on the Banner boys but if you haven’t done so already, get on now.

Tags: Antrim, Armagh, Clare, Kildare, NFL