Meath's luste dimming in bookies' eyes

March 11th, 2010 by Kevin Egan

Being honest, ever since the results from last week, Off the Ground was keeping an eye out for one fixture out of this weekend’s football matches that dripped with the potential for good value. To my immense shock and not inconsiderable disappointment, the bookmakers actually ignored history, tradition and all that stuff, and appeared to have more or less priced the game accurately.

I refer to the NFL division two encounter between Tipperary and Meath this weekend. The bookmakers have a ridiculous track record of overestimating Meath, underestimating Tipperary and failing to appreciate the importance of home advantage to the Royals – and of course the converse to that argument, which is quite how poor they are away from the familiar surroundings of Páirc Tailteann. Being truthful, I fully expected to examine this week’s prices, note a 7/2 or 3/1 beside Tipperary, circle it and advise a very large investment. Instead, a much more moderate 7/4 has been chalked down. Still good, but much shorter than it would have been even a year ago, despite both sides being more or less the same.

So far this year, Tipperary have played very competitively against Laois, struggled against a much more powerful Kildare team and secured an excellent draw in Newry. Meath scraped home against Armagh despite conceding three more scores than they took themselves, struggled in Newry and almost got nabbed by an understrength and woefully off-form Westmeath outfit.

Even allowing for one or two absentees due to Tipp playing Under-21 championship the following week, they should give Meath plenty to think about in Semple Stadium. The correct assessment for this game, bearing in mind both the potential and the current form of both sides, is probably around 6/5 Tipperary so there is still value to be had, it’s just not nearly as good as we had thought. Rather than watching the Premier lads win without anything riding on them, a small 1pt bet at 7/4 on Tipperary to beat Meath is the call.

So far this year in division three, top of the table Antrim won one away game, bottom of the table Roscommon lost one home game, and every other match has gone to the home side. As is to be expected when evenly matched teams meet, the little things usually make all the difference and these teams do seem to be evenly matched.

One game where the bookies disagree is Fermanagh vs Louth, where Fermanagh are underdogs despite the game being played in Enniskillen. Obviously 11/10 suggests very little difference between the teams, but even so it’s hard to see why Louth are suddenly so highly rated. They do appear to have carried their form into March for the first time in years, but two good wins at home don’t suddenly suggest favouritism here. Fermanagh were very poor against Antrim, but it’s becoming obvious that Antrim are a cut above all other sides in this division so that can be excused to a certain degree. Louth beat a bad Cavan team, lost in Sligo and beat Wexford who were without Ciarán Lyng – their best attacker, not counting Forde who will probably never play county again due to injury.

This is a game where Fermanagh will know that they need a result or relegation is likely to loom large, and they have an excellent record under lights. There’s very little between these teams and on a neutral venue, the price would be right. In Brewster Park, Fermanagh are entitled to be 4/5 – so we’re going to place a 1pt bet on them at 11/10 as well.

In the top flight, the games are tricky to assess but no bet jumps off the page. Dublin should oblige at 4/7 against Monaghan, but the Farney boys secured a huge win last week and after drawing in Parnell Park two years ago, they should fancy their chances of another good showing.

Tyrone are in dire need of a win over Cork and the return of Philip Jordan can only help matters, but Cork have been winning games and that winning habit is invaluable. I’m leaning towards a home win here but would never bet at the prices offered. Galway too are live outsiders at 6/4, but not unlike the Tipperary situation, it’s somewhat surprising that the bookies haven’t sided with the perennial favourites a little bit more. Galway can win this game, but it’s another matter altogether to say that they are more than 40% likely to do so. Probably a fair price, but not a betting one.

Finally Mayo are underdogs in Derry, and while form suggests otherwise, Celtic Park is a very difficult place to visit. Mayo have already won in Omagh which will quell their trepidation somewhat, but they still should find the Bradleys to be a hot challenge. Logic dictates Mayo should win, but a niggling sensation prevents us from taking the 6/4 on offer.

Tags: Fermanagh, NFL, Tipperary