National future

April 16th, 2010 by Donn McClean

Two other things about last Saturday’s Grand National before we leave it: Arbor Supreme and Backstage. The best place to start the search for next year’s Grand National winner is always this year’s Grand National. Even though Don’t Push It didn’t, seven of the previous nine winners of the National had had a previous go at the big fences, and if you can find reasons why a horse might improve from one season to the next, a la Hedgehunter, then you have an immediate angle.

The main worry with Arbor Supreme before Saturday centred on whether or not he would take to the place. He can be a tricky ride, and there was a danger that he would have a long look at the first fence, uh oh, don’t fancy this, get over the second fence, I really don’t think this is for me, and then stare into the abyss that is the third fence, the big ditch, probably a bigger ditch than The Chair despite the celebrity status that the latter enjoys, and decide he had enough.

On the contrary, he loved it. He took a little while to figure out the big fences, but he had them well sorted in his head by the time they rounded the Canal Turn and headed off down over Valentine’s and onto what they like to call the Racecourse Proper. Then Irish Raptor fell in front of him at the fence before The aforementioned Chair, and he had a look. He had to jump the fence, then jump half of Irish Raptor, not ideal when the next fence is The Chair, in all its narrowness, when space to jump the thing is at a premium. Arbor Supreme was a bit hesitant going into the fence, what’s waiting for me on the landing side, another stricken horse perhaps, a bit crowded, went to jump, wasn’t sure, did it in a kind of a hop and a skip motion, and fired Paul Townend out the side, race over.

It was a shame, but so was Hedgehunter’s effort in 2004 when he jumped 29 of the 30 fences like he was on springs, then fell down on the landing side of the last one, exhausted, and look what Hedgehunter did in 2005. Hedgehunter was trained by Willie Mullins, as is Arbor Supreme. Hedgehunter was an eight-year-old in 2004, as is Arbor Supreme. History tells us that nine and 10-year-olds have the edge in the Grand National, the race requires an extra year of two compared to your average staying steeplechase, presumably because of the magnitude of the task. Strength and experience is more important than youth and progressiveness in this one.

Hedgehunter was rated 141 when he ran in the race in 2004. Willie Mullins ran him in five handicap hurdles the following season, until the weights for the Grand National were published, and he was allowed in off a mark of 144. Then he won the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, then he won the National.

It is not difficult to envision a similar programme for Arbor Supreme. Now rated 145, if his campaign next season was geared so that he could get into the National on a mark that was close to that, he would have a big chance. It is a big sacrifice, you sacrifice a tilt at some of the big handicap chases during the season so that you can train a horse for one race, a race in which your challenge could easily be ended by something untoward, such is its nature, a race in which, habitually, less than half the field finish. However, now that Arbor Supreme’s owner, JP McManus, has a taste for Grand National success, he may not be averse to the idea.

Speaking of eight-year-olds and untoward happenings, Backstage was another who had settled into a lovely rhythm in Saturday’s race. He got further than Arbor Supreme, he was travelling really sweetly for Davy Condon and seemed to be enjoying the whole experience when, at the fourth fence on the second circuit, a loose horse fell in front of him and he cannoned headlong into him, brining his National challenge to an abrupt end.

It was a shame for Gordon Elliott who had been preparing Backstage for the National since he won a handicap chase at Ffos Las in August. However, the son of Passing Sale is another with time on his side, another eight-year-old who will be better equipped for the rigours of the Grand National next year.

The bookmakers are going 50/1 and 40/1 about this pair, respectively, but it’s too early to have a bet on next year’s Grand National, surely.

* For more of Donn’s thoughts, visit www.donnmcclean.com.

Tags: Don't Push It, grand national