Being honest, ever since the results from last week, Off the Ground was keeping an eye out for one fixture out of this weekend’s football matches that dripped with the potential for good value. To my immense shock and not inconsiderable disappointment, the bookmakers actually ignored history, tradition and all that stuff, and appeared to have more or less priced the game accurately.

I refer to the NFL division two encounter between Tipperary and Meath this weekend. The bookmakers have a ridiculous track record of overestimating Meath, underestimating Tipperary and failing to appreciate the importance of home advantage to the Royals – and of course the converse to that argument, which is quite how poor they are away from the familiar surroundings of Páirc Tailteann. Being truthful, I fully expected to examine this week’s prices, note a 7/2 or 3/1 beside Tipperary, circle it and advise a very large investment. Instead, a much more moderate 7/4 has been chalked down. Still good, but much shorter than it would have been even a year ago, despite both sides being more or less the same.

So far this year, Tipperary have played very competitively against Laois, struggled against a much more powerful Kildare team and secured an excellent draw in Newry. Meath scraped home against Armagh despite conceding three more scores than they took themselves, struggled in Newry and almost got nabbed by an understrength and woefully off-form Westmeath outfit.

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Usually by the end of round three, the betting for the National Football Leagues begins to look a lot simpler. In most divisions, as many as three or four counties would normally be out of the running by now, but unusually this season, very few counties are out of contention while equally, very few are still safe from the drop – notwithstanding those counties playing division four football.

Taking a helicopter view and looking down at division one first, Cork head the betting at 11/10, but this column can only speculate that there must have been plenty of money laid down on the Munster champions because this is a very short price, factoring in the football we’ve seen so far. They scraped home against Monaghan, beat a Kerry team that was very much in pre-season mode and very nearly let a huge lead slip against Galway last Saturday night on their home turf. Cork undoubtedly have ample quality, but Conor Counihan and most of the Cork supporters will know that to even win this league, much more will be required in the coming weeks.

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It’s a particularly busy weekend for a lot of the better younger footballers all across the country, with under 21 matches today and a full round of league games taking place tomorrow. Depending on how seriously managers are taking the national league and the under 21 championship, players could easily end up being asked to take part in both competitions, and from a betting point of view, that will be something to keep a close eye on when the league matches thrown in tomorrow – who will be deploying the greatest number of tired young legs.

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With two weeks of form on the table and available for assessment, taking an early view on the national football league is suddenly becoming a lot more feasible. For the first two rounds, team information is absolutely crucial as issues such as the Sigerson Cup, injuries and early season “condition” meant that it was vital to know who was lining out for each side before having a punt. Most counties were introducing plenty of younger players, unknown to the general public, and in many cases the fortunes of each team depended on how their newer recruits performed.

Now however, it’s a lot more plausible to look at the lines that are posted early in the week and possibly even attempt to beat the market before it settles by Friday evening.

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Most GAA fans would agree that it’s great to have the league back, but that there’s still nothing like championship. As a result, this weekend Sunday is definitely the day to head out for a walk, or go to the shops to look at carpets, or whatever it is that the other half would have you do – because Saturday should be an excellent day’s viewing on the box. Yours truly doesn’t get the chance to be a couch potato too often but the opportunity will certainly be taken up tomorrow, starting with the Sigerson Cup final at 2pm.

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Readers of Off the Ground could be forgiven for wondering whether or not this column will ever let a Kilmurry-Ibrickane game go by without taking an opinion one way or another, but having taken a variety of views on the Clare and Munster Champions up to this point, there’s hardly any point in stopping now. The Claremen are simply the kind of team that don’t follow the usual script when it comes to betting, and that’s ideal for the purposes of this column.

The battle hardened men from the Banner County were definitely underestimated this year in a Munster context, but it should not be forgotten that this was a Munster championship shorn of any leading contender along the lines of a Dr. Crokes or a Nemo Rangers flagship team. The first round against Dromcollogher Broadford was probably the most likely game in which Kilmurry could have slipped up and once they negotiated that challenge, they were unlikely to miss out on their Munster crown.

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Despite following hot on the heels of round one and the first genuine results of the season, the second round of the National Football League can often be full of pitfalls for those looking at form to guide their betting strategy. For example, last year in the first round of the league, Armagh travelled to Wexford and scored 4-16 in Wexford Park, while Laois got hammered at home to Kildare, 0-16 to 1-8. But in round 2, Laois travelled up to Armagh and came away with a three point win, scuppering a lot of favourite backers in the process. Also in round one, Limerick travelled to Louth and put in an atrocious performance, losing by almost treble scores, while Roscommon demolished Offaly in Kiltoom, albeit an Offaly team riddled with dissention under Richie Connor. In Round two, Limerick turned over the Sheepstealers, completely making a mockery of this form.

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Marketing gurus would probably look at the GAA starting their season up against the Six Nations and think that such madness leaves county boards with no chance of packing out their grounds. Certainly this column has often mentioned how a little bit more promotion and indeed a little better promotion from the mandarins in Croke Park certainly wouldn’t go amiss at times, but then you look at the action we were treated to at the weekend and you realise that in the main, Gaelic Games promote themselves. The light is kept under a basket, but even couch potatoes were well treated at the weekend with a wide range of top quality action on display.

The meeting of Derry and Tyrone was very hard fought, with plenty of excellent scores and fast paced play to savour, Meath and Armagh was a roller coaster ride which could have gone either way at the end, and Dublin went to Killarney and really put it up to the All Ireland champions in another very keenly fought contest. Cork and Monaghan played out an incredible shoutout up in Ulster, while there were plenty of other tense finishes and strong performances to savour all over the country.

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Having previewed divisions one and two already, it’s now time to look at the eight games taking place in divisions three and four this weekend and hopefully isolate the teams that may offer a little bit of betting value.

The first game to throw in out of the eight is the meeting of London and Limerick in Ruislip, and one has to feel very sorry for Limerick in this game. They were quite unlucky to drop to division four last year and but for a point here or there, they could easily have retained their place in a quite competitive division three. Their subsequent championship performances proved that they would be quite comfortable in that environment, but instead they must now play in what is likely to be a very scrappy encounter in Ruislip which will be of little benefit to the team other than as a good social occasion.

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For every county in Ireland bar Kilkenny, the national football league gets underway this weekend and the viewing public are set to get their first snapshot of how various teams are likely to fare in 2010. While many counties will continue to experiment to a certain degree in the league, the difference in intensity between this weekend and the preseason competitions is sure to be noticeable as teams look to get their season off to a decent start and take the pressure off the latter stages of the competition. For now we’re going to look at the games in division one and two, with the lower divisions to follow later.

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