Neither of the protagonists in the football decider have ever lifted the Andy Merrigan Cup meaning that this game will have all the romance of a first time winner, combined with subplots revolving around defence vs attack, David vs Goliath and urban vs rural.

However while St Galls and Kilmurry-Ibrickane are a wonderful final pairing from a writing point of view, they are also wonderful from a betting point of view – in that the romance has led the bookies to price it up as if an upset is possible, when in actual fact it’s hugely unlikely. Ask any St Galls player about All Ireland club finals and most of them will tell you that the day passes you by in the blink of an eye. The majority of this St Galls team are of course featuring in their second final, having just lost out to Salthill-Knocknacarra four years ago. It’s reasonable to assume that St Patrick’s day of 2006 was a black day in the memory for all of those West Belfast lads, but tomorrow is the day when that experienced can be harnessed and when reparation can be made, all while KIB are still getting to terms with the occasion.

This column recommended Kilmurry-Ibrickane to win the Munster decider against Kerins O’Rahilly’s but has opposed them ever since – and remains of the view that they are simply out of their depth at this stage. As this line is being typed, this columnist is all too aware that a rod for my own back is being fashioned with every tap of the keys, but all the same it is just too difficult to envisage a team like KIB winning a game like this. Portlaoise imploded, in every sense of the word, in the All Ireland semi final and if Galls can avoid doing the same, as Off the Ground expects, then they can take that crucial final step. Players like Kevin and CJ McGourty will get nothing easy off this Quilty backline, but they are well versed in the art of thriving off scraps and they can ensure that Wednesday will be a great day for Antrim football.

In the spirit of in for a penny, in for a pound, we’re going to oppose KIB one last time. A 3pt bet on St Galls minus three points at even money is the recommended bet in this game.

With their rich history, the meeting of Portumna and Ballyhale is likely to be savoured by neutrals, but from a betting perspective, the bookies seem to have got it right. Last Autumn this column recommended backing Portumna at 4/7 and opposing Ballyhale at 5/2. The easy answer would be to suggest that Ballyhale have proved that assessment wrong, but another way of looking at things would be that since then Ballyhale endured two very tough games against Oulart the Ballagh and Newtownshandrum and negotiated another very dangerous tie extremely well in beating Ballyboden St Endas. Despite clearing three hurdles of such a magnitude, they remain comfortably odds against. If you did back at 5/2, you’d have been hoping to be in a much better position for having endured so many nervous Sundays.

There is a nagging feeling that the Kilkenny and Leinster champions deserve better after what they’ve achieved, both previously and in the last six months, but the simple fact is that Portumna have been devastating in recent years and while they have been relatively untested since starting their 2009/10 campaign, they have proven that they can own the stage on All Ireland final day.

Whether you have a bet running or not, this game is simply a match to savour, not really one to punt. Four or more goals at 11/10 looks enticing enough for those who feel that a wager is mandatory when a great sporting occasion rolls around, but it’s not good enough to warrant a recommendation, and certainly not when the football provides such an excellent money making option instead.

Of course in the real world, Kilkenny remain the kingpins and Tipperary are the number one contenders when it comes to championship honours irrespective of any league results – but that means little to punters right now, looking for winners in mid-March.

Right now, neither Kilkenny nor Tipperary are operating at anything close to full pelt. They will get better, but a low key home win over Offaly and a hammering at the hands of the Dubs suggests that both these counties are keeping plenty of juice in the tank right now. Even the match between the two sides was keenly contested but far from impressive in terms of the quality of hurling on display. If the match between Kilkenny and Cork and that between Tipperary and Galway were championship games, then it’s fair to say that 4/11 and 2/5 would represent excellent value about the favourites, but it’s the league and there is no way that either of these counties should be so short against opposition that is clearly in good scoring form.

Granted both Cork and Galway have only won one meaningful match each as their wins over shadow Limerick teams are probably of little merit, and some would argue that Cork’s win over Offaly is hardly the kind of stuff that entitles them to be thinking of de-clawing Cats, but even so both camps should be in good form after starting with two wins out of two and that spirit will bring them a long way.

It shouldn’t be forgotten either that Cork’s last game against Kilkenny was the unmerciful hiding they were subjected to in Nowlan Park last year. Kilkenny players and supporters on that occasion took great joy in reminding the returning strikers of the disparity between the two counties, some of the supporters in a less than gracious fashion. Irrespective of what anyone thinks of the rights and wrongs of the actions of the Cork players last Spring, they wouldn’t be human if the crowing of the Kilkenny supporters that day weren’t ringing in their ears ever since. In front of a partisan home crowd in Páirc Uí Chaoimh, this game has the potential to get very spicy – and if Cork can gain a bit of traction against a very strong Kilkenny half back line, they could cause the Cats some problems. In this regard, the physical presence of Aisake Ó’hAilpín and Michael Cussen will be useful weapons. Cork plus four at 5/6 is definitely the right side to be on in the handicap market and a small 2pt bet is fair value.

The rivalry between Tipperary and Galway lives on as strong as ever and supporters of both of these counties can usually recall vividly some of the great meetings between the two from around twenty years ago. The two counties share a lot of characteristics – a large pick, an underwhelming championship record for the last two decades and plenty of underage success. Tipperary are undoubtedly the better prepared side to take on Kilkenny in the championship in 2010, but as we saw against Waterford, Galway are moving well at the moment and possess a lot of scoring power. Tipperary haven’t got their offensive game in gear yet and will do extremely well to pcik up the points here. We already have an antepost bet on Galway running in this column, but even so, a further 2pt bet on Galway at 9/4 to beat Tipperary is suggested. They will need to get a lot more contribution from their midfield sector, but John McIntyre knows Tipp hurling really well obviously enough, and he should be able to create a plan to counteract Tipp’s possible supremacy here.

I refer to the NFL division two encounter between Tipperary and Meath this weekend. The bookmakers have a ridiculous track record of overestimating Meath, underestimating Tipperary and failing to appreciate the importance of home advantage to the Royals – and of course the converse to that argument, which is quite how poor they are away from the familiar surroundings of Páirc Tailteann. Being truthful, I fully expected to examine this week’s prices, note a 7/2 or 3/1 beside Tipperary, circle it and advise a very large investment. Instead, a much more moderate 7/4 has been chalked down. Still good, but much shorter than it would have been even a year ago, despite both sides being more or less the same.

So far this year, Tipperary have played very competitively against Laois, struggled against a much more powerful Kildare team and secured an excellent draw in Newry. Meath scraped home against Armagh despite conceding three more scores than they took themselves, struggled in Newry and almost got nabbed by an understrength and woefully off-form Westmeath outfit.

Even allowing for one or two absentees due to Tipp playing Under-21 championship the following week, they should give Meath plenty to think about in Semple Stadium. The correct assessment for this game, bearing in mind both the potential and the current form of both sides, is probably around 6/5 Tipperary so there is still value to be had, it’s just not nearly as good as we had thought. Rather than watching the Premier lads win without anything riding on them, a small 1pt bet at 7/4 on Tipperary to beat Meath is the call.

So far this year in division three, top of the table Antrim won one away game, bottom of the table Roscommon lost one home game, and every other match has gone to the home side. As is to be expected when evenly matched teams meet, the little things usually make all the difference and these teams do seem to be evenly matched.

One game where the bookies disagree is Fermanagh vs Louth, where Fermanagh are underdogs despite the game being played in Enniskillen. Obviously 11/10 suggests very little difference between the teams, but even so it’s hard to see why Louth are suddenly so highly rated. They do appear to have carried their form into March for the first time in years, but two good wins at home don’t suddenly suggest favouritism here. Fermanagh were very poor against Antrim, but it’s becoming obvious that Antrim are a cut above all other sides in this division so that can be excused to a certain degree. Louth beat a bad Cavan team, lost in Sligo and beat Wexford who were without Ciarán Lyng – their best attacker, not counting Forde who will probably never play county again due to injury.

This is a game where Fermanagh will know that they need a result or relegation is likely to loom large, and they have an excellent record under lights. There’s very little between these teams and on a neutral venue, the price would be right. In Brewster Park, Fermanagh are entitled to be 4/5 – so we’re going to place a 1pt bet on them at 11/10 as well.

In the top flight, the games are tricky to assess but no bet jumps off the page. Dublin should oblige at 4/7 against Monaghan, but the Farney boys secured a huge win last week and after drawing in Parnell Park two years ago, they should fancy their chances of another good showing.

Tyrone are in dire need of a win over Cork and the return of Philip Jordan can only help matters, but Cork have been winning games and that winning habit is invaluable. I’m leaning towards a home win here but would never bet at the prices offered. Galway too are live outsiders at 6/4, but not unlike the Tipperary situation, it’s somewhat surprising that the bookies haven’t sided with the perennial favourites a little bit more. Galway can win this game, but it’s another matter altogether to say that they are more than 40% likely to do so. Probably a fair price, but not a betting one.

Finally Mayo are underdogs in Derry, and while form suggests otherwise, Celtic Park is a very difficult place to visit. Mayo have already won in Omagh which will quell their trepidation somewhat, but they still should find the Bradleys to be a hot challenge. Logic dictates Mayo should win, but a niggling sensation prevents us from taking the 6/4 on offer.

Taking a helicopter view and looking down at division one first, Cork head the betting at 11/10, but this column can only speculate that there must have been plenty of money laid down on the Munster champions because this is a very short price, factoring in the football we’ve seen so far. They scraped home against Monaghan, beat a Kerry team that was very much in pre-season mode and very nearly let a huge lead slip against Galway last Saturday night on their home turf. Cork undoubtedly have ample quality, but Conor Counihan and most of the Cork supporters will know that to even win this league, much more will be required in the coming weeks.

11/10 outright suggests that Cork are 1/3 or shorter to finish in the top two, and that seems bizarrely short right now. Even if we assume that two wins out of four will be enough, which it probably will, none of their remaining four games are what could be termed a “gimme”. Certainly this weekend’s trip to Omagh should be fraught with danger, with Tyrone now badly in need of points to get off the foot of the table. After that Dublin come to town, and while Cork will be favourites for that match, Dublin have been playing just as impressively this season and have already taken one away win out of Munster so will be confident of repeating the trick.

Round six sees them travelling up to Celtic Park where Derry are usually very strong also, before ending the league with a home match against Mayo. Cork are odds on to finish in the top three certainly, but 11/10 is way too short, which of course leads us to the obvious follow on – where does the value lie if not with the market leaders?

Dublin’s three wins, including two away from Parnell Park, have put them in an excellent position but even so, 9/4 is plenty short enough about them too. Kerry at 7/1 are obviously a threat, but Galway’s late comeback will have restored some confidence out west and chances are that it might be better to leave that docket unstamped for another week until we see if Kerry are really returning to form.

Despite losing twice, Derry at 14/1 are still well in with a shout and could easily come right back into contention in the coming weeks while their opponents Mayo have four points on the board and could feature also, but with three home games still to come, it’s Galway who might be worth keeping on side. They looked awful in the first half of their match with Cork but they still dug deep to come up with plenty of scores and with three games to come in Pearse Stadium, they are definitely dark horses to finish out with consecutive wins and to sneak a final spot. They haven’t played well enough at all so far but the more time that the Corofin lads get to bed back in the better Galway will become, and a win this weekend could change things completely. Probably not huge value, but certainly the standout price in that division right now.

In division two, Laois, Tipp and Westmeath have all effectively ruled themselves out of contention, but it’s interesting to look at what the other counties have done and how the market has reacted to their results so far. Meath have done what Meath do – won games at home by narrow margins and lost away from home, and there is no reason to think that they are any better than we thought originally. They were no value back in early February, they are no value now at 7/2 until they prove that they can win league games away from Páirc Tailteann against decent opponents.

Kildare have struggled with injuries and suspensions but still have four points in the bag. They were a good bet at 11/4 before the start, at 7/2 they look hugely overpriced. The value of their win over Donegal cannot be overstated and right now they are in a situation where wins over Laois and Westmeath, as one would expect them to get, plus one win over either Armagh or Meath away would put them in a league final. Armagh and Meath are two tough places to go, but Kildare will hold no fear travelling to either venue and the likelihood is that they will pick up the away win that they need. If you backed them before the start at 11/4, hold firm, but if not, now is a good time to go in again.

Donegal had a chance to prove their worth yesterday and blew it spectacularly, so it defies belief that they would now trade at a shorter price than they were at the start of the season. Yes they beat Laois at home and yes they won well in Westmeath, but it’s the games against the Ulster sides and the Lilies that will make the difference in this division and they still seem to be one step behind their peers at this level.

Armagh on the other hand , despite also only having secured wins over the midland counties, are a real danger as they appear to be rediscovering some of their spirit and indomitability. Dropping points in Portlaoise last Saturday night would have been very costly, but they dug deep and picked up a massive win. Their full forward line of Ryan Henderson, Ronan Clarke and the evergreen Stephen McDonnell looks like a potent unit and at 7/2, they are in with every chance, even if they do have a tough run in still to come. Their match this weekend against Kildare should be a cracker and it’s very disappointing that the powers that be in TG4 didn’t think outside the box and make the sojourn to Crossmaglen for what should be a fierce contest.

Finally we have Down, who shocked the nation with their first round win in Newbridge, and did so again by failing to beat Tipperary in Newry on Saturday. Or to be more accurate – they shocked the nation of barstool pundits in both cases, but they didn’t shock anyone who knew anything about Down football and their propensity to compete with the best and drop points where least expected, one week after another. With five points in the bag they are of course in a strong position, but they can’t be trusted against any opponent and at 5/2, are probably more of a lay than a back. Armagh and Kildare are definitely the value options as things stand.

Division three is somewhat different in that Roscommon appear to be very poor, Antrim are a cut above the rest and everyone else is somewhere in the middle. Don’t be fooled by Roscommon’s late comeback against Offaly last weekend – that was simply down to Offaly’s mental fragility and failure to close out a game. Roscommon didn’t create their scores so much as Offaly handed them to them, and they should continue their voyage to division four.

Sligo’s run in looks kind so they should yet come into contention, however other than them, it’s hard to see anyone emerging from the pack to challenge Antrim. Wexford’s status as second favourites is justified in that they should beat both Ros and Fermanagh, could easily beat Cavan and have Antrim in the final game when the Saffrons could be home and hosed. Still, when one allows for the St Galls players returning to this Antrim team, it looks more and more like their place in the last twelve of last year’s All Ireland series was no fluke. At 13/8, Antrim are a very decent bet right now and could easily be backed, possibly each way.

In division four, the hypnotic effect of Mick O’Dwyer appears to be as strong as ever. How it makes the slightest bit of sense for Wicklow to be 3/1 while Clare continue to trade at 8/1 when Clare have already beaten Wicklow is frankly a mystery to this writer. Limerick are very much the class act of this division and they should come out on top, but at 2/5 they are accurately rather than excessively priced.

Wicklow beat an understrength Carlow team yesterday and face two tricky weeks in a row, two weeks in which Clare should be picking up easy points. It’s very plausible that in round seven, when Clare travel to Longford and Wicklow travel to Waterford, the Banner county will only have to match the Garden boys to guarantee their place in the decider. If a match bet was to be offered between these counties Clare should be odds on – so even allowing for Wicklow having slightly more pedigree in a league final, these prices look to be almost the wrong way around. Again, this column has already recommended a wager on the Banner boys but if you haven’t done so already, get on now.

For now though, betting has been offered on the four matches taking place in Leinster this afternoon and in several cases, it looks as if the odds makers are steering clear of the fancied teams, with very short prices on offer about several counties.

Taking Off the Ground’s home county of Offaly first, and and 1/2 is extremely short about a good but untried Offaly under 21 team. This game was postponed when most of the first round ties took place due to a couple of players from Carlow’s panel having commitments with the county’s senior hurlers, so for both of these teams this is the first outing of the year. This is largely the Carlow team that reached the 2007 Leinster minor final, powered by the hugely impressive Brendan Murphy at midfield. Most of that team will line out this afternoon in O’Connor Park, with Murphy likely to be the dominant influence in the game. Offaly’s 2007 minor crop was somewhat disappointing and ended up losing badly to Laois in that year’s Leinster semi final, but they now enjoy favouritism, probably due to the fact that many of the players have already played league football for the county seniors.

This Offaly group is being keenly watched in the county and the emergence of Brian Connor as a genuine intercounty standard midfielder means that those in attendance in Tullamore should be treated to a great battle at the middle of the field, but there is no reason why the home side should be such a short price in a game that could easily go either way. A crafty group of home forwards might make the difference, but at 15/8 Carlow are certainly the more interesting team from a betting perspective.

Wicklow at 15/8 may also make a lot of appeal to punters after their comprehensive first round win over Longford, compounded by the fact that they will enjoy home advantage against a Laois team that has been struggling at senior level at least. However in this instance, while they are not really worthy of recommendation at 1/2, Laois are still very much the more likely winners due to the much greater level of proven talent in their ranks. The 2007 Leinster minor champions have not progressed as much as was hoped inside the Queen’s county, but they still should have enough to come through here – albeit narrowly.

However of all the outsiders playing today, the recommendation has to be 2pts on Louth to turn over Dublin at 5/2. The Wee county had a very comprehensive win the first round against Wexford, albeit a very moderate Wexford side, but this result was far from out of character for this Louth team. Despite having no obvious big names, they have accumulated some large scores on the challenge circuit as well and will fancy themselves to make a great game of it today in Drogheda.

Dublin have an excellent team on paper, but they are untried as of yet and have a very hit and miss record at this grade. They could end up winning the All Ireland, but as any under 21 follower will tell you, performance at this grade is often as much about gathering momentum as anything else. Now is definitely the time to oppose them and at 5/2, the price is ideal for doing so.

Now however, it’s a lot more plausible to look at the lines that are posted early in the week and possibly even attempt to beat the market before it settles by Friday evening.

Very few followers of gaelic games would have picked up on this, but the last few weeks haven’t been great for the bookmakers as favourites have overperformed. Dublin’s upset win over Tipperary yesterday will have killed a lot of accumulator bets, but equally many punters would have left off Tipperary since they were away from home and didn’t have the benefit of a first round run out. If you are a favourite backer and you did leave Tipp off your coupon, chances are you were paid out. The other three division one favourites won without breaking sweat, and while the same couldn’t be said of Clare in division two, the Banner men still got past the post, as did the other three favourites, Antrim, Wexford and Carlow.

The first weekend of the hurling was no different, as was week two of the NFL – so bookmakers are definitely running scared of accumulator bets right now, and that’s pretty evident in the prices on offer at the moment. Down, Meath, London and Wicklow are the four shortest price favourites of the weekend and while they should all win, there is no value in the prices on offer. Indeed Tipperary at 11/2 could surprise Down in Newry, given the Mourne men’s propensity to throw in one very wobbly performance every league campaign.

For real value however, it’s the teams priced at 4/7 or better that we’re looking at right now. Kerry will certainly get plenty of support at 4/7 for their home game against Derry as home advantage is likely to play a big part, while they will also find it a lot easier to cope without their under 21 players – both sides are preparing for big championship ties against local rivals in that grade over the following seven days. Louth at 8/11 will make plenty of appeal at home to a Cavan team that looked quite vulnerable in Casement Park and this column would certainly be inclined towards keeping a close eye on the Wee men, but it’s Cavan’s conquerers that day which stand out most to this column.

Some would probably argue that St Gall’s victory in the All Ireland Club semi-final was a blow to Antrim’s chances, but their alternate players, who have stepped into the breach in the absence of the McGourty’s, Niblock, Gallagher and company, have all performed really well and they come into this match in a great vein of form. If anything, the Ulster finalists from last summer are likely to be well served by continuity. Fermanagh on the other hand will travel to Casement Park with no such confidence and looking nothing like the preseason favourites that they were assessed as before a ball was thrown into any game in this division. Their defeat in Tullamore was disappointing but forgiveable as they played over half the game with fourteen men and had a terrible day at the office in front of the posts. However to barely scrape home against Roscommon was much more alarming. A slightly different refereeing style could have changed the course of that game completely and to only score eight times against a team that conceded 2-20 the previous week bodes ill for the potential of their forward line to deliver the 14 points plus that they will need this Saturday night.

Martin McGrath and Eamonn Maguire continue to miss out and their quality is conspicuously absent in a team that has really laboured without so many key starters. Antrim beat Down in a warm up challenge match recently and seem to be playing too well to be denied here. A 3pt bet on Antrim to beat Fermanagh at 4/6 is well worth taking right now, with every possibility that this price could move in even further once it is confirmed that Fermanagh won’t be welcoming back all their big names just yet.

After DCU lift the Sigerson crown (probably!), the GAA hat will be removed for a few hours as the attention of the nation and this column too will switch over to North London for the Six Nations. However for this viewer at least, the highlight of the day’s action will be under lights when St Gall’s play Corofin in the refixture of the All Ireland semi final in Parnell Park.

This column has an each way bet running on Corofin for the All Ireland at 10/1 and the removal of Portlaoise from the race has shortened the odds on the Galway and Connacht champions even further. These words will not be uttered in either dressing room this weekend, but deep down both sides should know that this game is now the de facto All Ireland final. That feeling is not without justification. Kilmurry-Ibrickane supporters no doubt took great joy in proving this column spectacularly wrong last weekend, but at the risk of digging a further hole in the eyes of West Clare folk, my honest opinion is that last weekend’s result was as much about Portlaoise imploding as anything else. Kilmurry played a very tidy game and took their chances well, but the refereeing calls very much went their way and Portlaoise reacted in the worst possible way to those setbacks.

The initial red card was certainly correct, no-one could realistically dispute that, but Kilmurry got plenty of contentious technical calls in their favour as well and these cost the Laois men plenty of first half scores. If they were in closer contention, they might not have combusted as they did at half time – once John Mulligan spent the half time break ranting about the referee rather than going in and settling his team, the cause was lost.

However that makes this weekend’s game all the more intriguing and it’s interesting the market has clearly moved in favour of the Ulster champions. On the face of it, it’s difficult to see how such a move is justified – playing under lights shouldn’t really discommode either team, the venue is the same, and both teams have plenty of experience in their ranks and shouldn’t be troubled by the game’s increased importance. If anything, the increased possibility of highly inclement weather and a very soft pitch should have tightened things up.

At 11/8 and 10/11 plus one point, there was no reason to get further involved with Corofin. At 10/11 plus two, there is much more appeal, even though one always opposes money with plenty of caution in GAA betting. Nonetheless Corofin are still a top class side who have been on the shortlist of potential All Ireland winners since September and nothing has changed in that regard. Injuries may have robbed them of a bit of attacking flair but they remain a side who concedes points about as often as Irish politicians concede that they acted unlawfully even when proven to have done so.

Those who are already involved may wish to step aside on this one, but the value is too great to be ignored – a 2pt bet on Corofin plus two points at 10/11 is the recommendation for what should be at least as intriguing a battle as the rugby that will serve as the TV curtain raiser.

Psychologically, it’s very difficult to take 8/11 about any team when better prices were available for the same match only two nights ago, but all the factors that pointed to a Tipperary win back then remain equally relevant right now. Tipperary still need to win this game much more than the reigning league and All Ireland champions, Tipperary are still a lot closer to full strength and they will still be a lot more used to hurling under lights in Semple Stadium than their neighbours. If anything, the Tuesday night with free admission should suit them even more since a big local crowd is likely to wander down to the Stadium and add a bit of weight to the crowd’s voice.

Portlaoise’s surprise loss to Kilmurry-Ibrickane certainly didn’t suit this column, but the comeback starts tomorrow night with a 3pt bet on Tipperary at 8/11. Justice delayed, in this case, will not be justice denied.

The battle hardened men from the Banner County were definitely underestimated this year in a Munster context, but it should not be forgotten that this was a Munster championship shorn of any leading contender along the lines of a Dr. Crokes or a Nemo Rangers flagship team. The first round against Dromcollogher Broadford was probably the most likely game in which Kilmurry could have slipped up and once they negotiated that challenge, they were unlikely to miss out on their Munster crown.

The Clare champions also came very close to suffering the fate of being the first Irish provincial champion to fall in Ruislip, but a scrappy goal got them over the line against a Tír Chonaill Gaels team who will always regret blowing such a golden opportunity. There are no more soft touches left for them now though with only the elite club teams remaining – and Kilmurry simply aren’t in that league. They play Portlaoise this weekend in the Gaelic Grounds, but even if it were Corofin or St. Galls on the agenda, the verdict would be the same – this is simply a bridge too far for a committed but limited side.

Laois football may be at a low ebb as the legacy of the Mick O’Dwyer era starts to manifest itself, but even in the worst of times for Laois football, the townies were always a force to be reckoned with and they appear to be as strong as ever this year. The fixing of this tie for the Gaelic Grounds may appear to favour the Clare men and gepographically it is a ridiculous choice with Thurles lying idle on Sunday, but the wide open expanses of the Ennis Road venue are unlikely to suit the hard grafters of Kilmurry who, rumour has it, had been hoping to get the game fixed for Nenagh. The suspension of wing back Declan Callinan, another trial-by-television disiplinary decision, will also hurt the Munster champions. Portlaoise have been playing well in challenge matches and if they come close to their true form, they should cover the three point spread. A 2pt bet on Portlaoise minus three points at 6/5 is the recommendation.

Also staying with the same game, the bookmakers are breaking new ground with a price of 5/2 about no goals in the match. This would suggest a goal expectancy of 1.1 or 1.2 for the game, which is extremely low by any normal measure. KIB don’t score or concede goals freely, indeed their three Munster championship matches were all goal-less, but this is Portlaoise they are facing, who do rattle the twines frequently enough. The relatively unheralded Paul Cahillane is their main goal threat and the reason he is not as well known as he could be is because he has recently returned from a stint at Celtic and his time playing soccer has fine tuned his eye for goal. He is without question the main goalscoring threat on this team and at 7/1, two 1pt bets on Paul Cahillane to score the first and last goal of the game are definitely in order.

Looking briefly to the second semi final, this column is carrying in an antepost each way position on Corofin and despite the groundswell of opinion that St. Galls are the worthy favourites, I still fancy the Galway champions to progress. There is very little in between these two excellent teams and if the Galls attack can score at anything like the frequency they usually do, they’ll win this game handily because Corofin just don’t have fourteen or fifteen scores in them. Nonetheless, Corofin will take to the field armed with the best club defence in Ireland and they can suffocate and frustrate a Galls forward unit which is high on class but not always big into graft. Conservative types may wish to cover their positions here, but at the prices offered there is simply no value, so we wouldn’t recommend it.

The same certainly could not be said of the hurling. This Saturday night the undisputed big two counties in the game at the moment go head to head in a game that should get any small ball enthusiast salivating at the prospect. Last year Kilkenny and Tipperary went head to head in both the National Hurling League final and the All Ireland final, and in both instances supporters were treated to a humdinger of a match, with Kilkenny winning out both times. A large crowd is likely to make the trek to Tom Semple’s field in the hope of similarly competitive action this weekend, with TV cameras also on hand.

The forgotten match between these two counties last year was their meeting in Nowlan Park in the round robin stages of the league towards the end of March when Kilkenny laid down a marker with a 5-17 to 1-12 hammering. The nett result of these three results is that Kilkenny will feel that whether the game is close or not, whether they lead or trail coming into the closing stages, they should have the upper hand – and for that reason, this Saturday night’s fixture is a lot more meaningful to Tipperary than it is to Kilkenny. Of course Brian Cody would never admit it, but deep down the James Stephens man knows that a loss or two in the league tends to knock the complacency out of his players and that there is no danger of his side ever feeling inferior to Tipperary, so a win is not really as important.

For Liam Sheedy, he knows that the longer his team go without beating Kilkenny, the more of a mental block it will become to ever do so. His team have done a lot of great work to get to the stage that they’re at, nipping at the heels of the greatest team that has ever played the game, but if they don’t take out Kilkenny soon, it will all be to no avail. Nobody remembers second best, least of all in a county with a tradition like theirs. Tipperary also know more than most how psychological factors can take hold and become genuine stumbling blocks. Tipp spent many years hurling really well in Munster before crumbling in Croke Park and it took a pathetic performance from Limerick last summer to allow them to shake that monkey off their backs and the last thing they need is another simian passenger mounting their shoulders.

Of course there is a world of difference between needing to win and being able to, but on that level too, this game seems primed for a Tipperary success. Many of Kilkenny’s frontline hurlers didn’t see any Walsh Cup action, while the absence of the Ballyhale contingent will be an issue for them as well. Home support and a greater degree of familiarity with floodlit hurling should be of huge benefit to Tipp this weekend and even allowing for a couple of absentees, greater hunger and a good level of home support should push them over the line.

A 3pt bet on Tipperary to beat Kilkenny at even money is recommended for Saturday night’s fixture.