After Ballyhale’s exit from the semi-final stage of the Kilkenny hurling championship, Portumna were presumed by many to  be the champions in waiting, but that prognosis failed to come to pass either after Loughrea proved on Saturday that their draw against Portumna in the first semi final was no fluke.

Thurles Sarsfields could easily have had their season ended prematurely yesterday as well, but a contentious late 21m free was awarded and Pa Bourke saved the Sars with a brilliantly struck goal to give his club a 1-17 to 1-16 success against Toomevara, scuppering our outsider bet on Toome in the process. Sars may not head the betting for the All Ireland race right now, but rest assured that they are the most talented team still in contention, even if that’s of scant consolation of followers of this column who were looking good for a win as the final whistle approached.

The reason Thurles don’t head the betting despite their talented panel is the draw, which pits the Leinster winners against the Ulster champions. Not since 1996 when Dunloy comfortably beat Glenmore of Kilkenny have an Ulster team beaten a Leinster team in this competition, and with Loughgiel enjoying their first run outside Antrim for generations, that’s unlikely to change this year.

Oulart the Ballagh are strongly fancied to progress out of the eastern province and while the quality in their ranks cannot be dismissed, the odds appear prohibitively short. Ballyhale Shamrocks may not be coming out of Kilkenny, but it’s a foolish bettor who would dismiss either Carrickshock or O’Loughlin Gaels out off hand. Oulart must also overcome Coolderry of Offaly in a semi-final in Tullamore, and Coolderry are capable of getting a run on some very good teams with a fast flurry of scores. Of course Oulart would be favoured for such a tie, but the odds are prohibitively short in what would be a very difficult assignment.

In terms of value, by far the most appealing club is Ballyboden St. Endas of Dublin. The southside men still have a lot of hurling to do just to get out of Dublin, but 12/1 is a massive price about a very talented group who have competed well at this level over the past few years. Ballyhale may have given them a heavy beating in last year’s championship, but losing to Ballyhale is no disgrace and St. Endas are unlikely to trade at bigger than 2/1 against either Kilkenny team. Last year the club were also competing with the parallel distraction of a run through the senior football championship and with their focus now entirely on the small ball code, 12/1 about Ballyboden to win Leinster is simply too big and worth a 1pt bet.

In Munster, it’s all about Sarsfields as both the Cork and Thurles teams of that name will be expected to reach the provincial decider. Sarsfields of Cork have home advantage against the winners of the Waterford final between Ballygunner and De La Salle and though neither of those teams will be intimidated by a trip to Leeside, they don’t have the overall balance and strength in depth that Sars possess.

However realistically, this should be Thurles’ year. Hurling in Tipperary is on a high after wins for the county at senior and under 21 level and it’s difficult to see Clonoulty/Rossmore, Crusheen or Kilmallock having the power to derail their campaign. Ger O’Grady’s red card yesterday will force a slight change in the Thurles attacking unit but they have more than enough depth to overcome that loss, while only Kilmallock look strong enough to pose even the slightest threat to their progression to the final.

In Galway, Loughrea now face the difficult task of winning a county title when they can help but feel that they’ve already won one in beating Portumna. The energy that they will have expended in overcoming their rivals is not something that’s easily replaced, while there are no shortage of examples of clubs that failed in a final to replicate the intensity they were able to call on when hurling against a strong favourite at the penultimate stage.

Either way, at 5/1 each, neither of the Galway clubs are good value for an All Ireland title. Unless there are several shocks in both Leinster and Munster, the winners of this game should be outsiders in both the semi final and final and unless those prices were doubled, there’s no value to be had in the West.

With a good handful of county champions already decided, a few select clubs are already looking towards the winter, planning their assault on the All Ireland club football championships. As with every year, there is a good mix of clubs who are simply delighted to take their county crown, and then there are those who will be looking a lot further, keen to make an impression at provincial and All Ireland level.

Up north in particular, there are a large number of clubs who can be all but dismissed in terms of assessing potential All Ireland winners. Naomh Conaill, Roslea, Kingscourt, Coleraine and anyone bar Carrickmore in Tyrone and Mayobridge from Down would be teams that simply wouldn’t have the tools to progress in the All Ireland series. Even Carrickmore and Mayobridge are likely to have extended too much energy getting through their county series in a short space of time if they do manage to do so, so realistically, the only potential All Ireland winners up north are St. Galls, Crossmaglen Rangers and possibly, Clontibret.

Galls are the short price favourites, and rightly so. They have a tough draw in Ulster, starting with an away trip to Armagh, but they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for this stage, and it goes without saying that as champions, they have proven that they are capable of travelling this journey. If they can come out of Crossmaglen with a win, they will be 1/3 or shorter for every other game in Ulster, while the lopsided draw in Leinster leaves an outside possibility of a handy All Ireland semi final as well. Realistically they probably will work out at 4/1 or more by multiplying their match prices the whole way through, but they are deservedly clear front runners.

Crossmaglen appeared to find a rich vein of form at times this year, but they struggled to overcome Cullyhanna in the Armagh semi final and failing to exert themselves properly in the replay was a concern. Their final against Dromintee is unlikely to be as straightforward as many might expect, so they won’t be thinking of Ulster or All Ireland titles at all yet.

They have tradition on their side and a great blend of youth and experience, but they have lost a few key players while many of their younger stars are unproven at the higher levels. Based on the fact that they should be no shorter than 1/3 to win Armagh and at least 2/1 to get past Galls,they’d have to be a 5/2 shot for the All Ireland with four games to go for 14/1 to represent value and that doesn’t look likely.

As mentioned, the wild cards are Clontibret. It’s been nearly twenty years since a Monaghan team won the Ulster club title and the 2009 Monaghan champions still have to cross a tough county final hurdle with Magheracloone and Tommy Freeman lying in wait. Nonetheless they’ve been to this stage of proceedings before and will have learned a lot from their chastening experience at the hands of Galls last year. A home tie against the winners of Kingscourt Stars and Naomh Conaill would be a good range finder and they are strong possibilities to contest an Ulster Club final this year. Of all the outsiders from that province, they make the most appeal.

The Leinster draw is perhaps the most lopsided, with Laois, Dublin and Kildare set to contribute one provincial semi finalist between them. Longford, Wexford, Louth and Carlow can all be dismissed from long term calculations here while Rathnew are not the force they once were, meaning that a lot of strength has been put in one small sector. Ladbrokes’ book is taking almost 27% from the teams still left in that quarter for the draw, meaning that whoever comes out of there would have to be 11/4 to win the All Ireland with four games to go – simply not going to happen.

Of the other counties, Skryne cannot be dismissed on account of their experience and the overall strength of the Meath championship, but they too look a little weak, particularly in the defensive sector. Rhode and Clara are two strong clubs and the winner of this tie is well placed to reach a Leinster final, though right now it’s difficult to predict which of the two will reach that stage. Either club would look on Leinster as a real opportunity, however the current Rhode training regime is somewhat worrying – they cannot be expected to maintain four nights a week for much longer.

Perhaps a more interesting selection is Garrycastle, also priced at 40/1. The east Athlone club have had a few forays into Leinster and reached the final last year, narrowly losing out to Portlaoise. They’ve a nice draw with home ties against Longford Slashers and Mattock Rangers lying between them and a Leinster semi final and at the price offered, they stand out as the best betting option in the province right now.

The Munster club football championship spent 39 years as almost the exclusive domain of Cork and Kerry teams, with only the Pat Spillane inspired Thomond College breaking the run in 1977, and Doonbeg of Clare in 1998. Then, in the last six years, there have been three winners from elsewhere in Munster – Kilmurry/Ibrickane twice, and Dromcollogher/Broadford of Limerick. An outside case could be made for Stradbally of Waterford this year, but other than them, it looks to be going back to the two big counties.

In Kerry, both Dr Crokes and Austin Stacks are famous clubs who could go on a run, but crucially, Dr Crokes have been on the All Ireland stage before and know what it takes. Having beaten South Kerry last weekend, the Killarney club are flying high and they look like the better betting option by far. 8/1 and 14/1 about the two teams would be better reflected by 8/1 and 28/1 – Stacks would have a lot to do to go further than winning Kerry.

In Cork, Nemo Rangers’ reputation has seen them installed as 8/1 second favourites also, but nothing that they’ve done in 2010 so far suggests that they’re back to where they were in the middle part of this decade. They have a couple of tough games ahead, including a semi final meeting with 2009 champions Clonakilty, before they even get out of Cork. If they were 4/5 to win Cork and 4/5 to win Munster, that makes them 15/8 or shorter at All Ireland semi final stage. Not way wrong, but not value nonetheless.Indeed the Barrs at 28/1 might be a more interesting proposition if they do make it out of Cork, but there are better long shots out there.

We finally look to Connacht, where the 2009 Galway and Connacht champions Corofin are still going strong. Ballintubber and Castlebar will compete in a novel Mayo final on Sunday October 24th, and though Mayo clubs have a very strong record in Connacht, these two don’t look ready to take on Corofin (or Killererin) and win. St Brigids too cannot be discounted, and they look well placed to reach a Connacht decider with only Eastern Harps and Glencar/Manorhamilton lying in their way. At 16/1, they look like the best value selection out in the West, with plenty of depth and a strong range of scoring options. That price will look doubly attractive if Corofin slip up between now and the Connacht final, which is unlikely but not impossible.

Most GAA fans would agree that it’s great to have the league back, but that there’s still nothing like championship. As a result, this weekend Sunday is definitely the day to head out for a walk, or go to the shops to look at carpets, or whatever it is that the other half would have you do – because Saturday should be an excellent day’s viewing on the box. Yours truly doesn’t get the chance to be a couch potato too often but the opportunity will certainly be taken up tomorrow, starting with the Sigerson Cup final at 2pm.

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Readers of Off the Ground could be forgiven for wondering whether or not this column will ever let a Kilmurry-Ibrickane game go by without taking an opinion one way or another, but having taken a variety of views on the Clare and Munster Champions up to this point, there’s hardly any point in stopping now. The Claremen are simply the kind of team that don’t follow the usual script when it comes to betting, and that’s ideal for the purposes of this column.

The battle hardened men from the Banner County were definitely underestimated this year in a Munster context, but it should not be forgotten that this was a Munster championship shorn of any leading contender along the lines of a Dr. Crokes or a Nemo Rangers flagship team. The first round against Dromcollogher Broadford was probably the most likely game in which Kilmurry could have slipped up and once they negotiated that challenge, they were unlikely to miss out on their Munster crown.

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In theory, the process of identifying a good antepost bet should be relatively straightforward. Either some personal insight or else a standout price leads you to your selection, you pay your money and take your chances. This year’s antepost market for the All Ireland club hurling is somewhat different from that, in that it’s easy enough to see the bad value, meaning that the good value should be in there somewhere, though at first glance, it’s tricky to see it.

Thus, let’s take a good full look at the runners and riders, with a view to identifying where the money is best placed by eliminating all the clubs which are simply way too short to even contemplate backing.

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As was discussed previously in this column, bookmakers often don’t give antepost books the care and attention that they deserve. The reasoning is simple enough – most punters don’t have the patience to put their money down for months at a time, so the compilers know that errors will go unpunished more often than not.

The greater length of time between striking the bet and collecting also allows for a greater amount of random factors to enter into the equation, but nevertheless, the opportunities for finding value are usually a lot more plentiful in antepost markets.

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