Of all the preseason competitions, none is treated more seriously than the McKenna Cup, where games are generally quite competitive and usually played in front of much larger crowds than attend any of the corresponding tournaments in the other provinces. Perhaps it’s something to do with a more meaningful programme of games instead of a knockout structure, or perhaps it’s due to the fact that Ulster counties often look to peak that bit earlier in the season due to their more open provincial championship, but either way some of the most attractive fixtures taking place this weekend are in the Ulster province.

Plenty of attention will be centred around the first competitive game in Fermanagh since Peter Canavan took charge, and the bookmakers are obviously expecting some sort of bounce under the helm of the Errigal Ciarán man since they make Fermanagh the narrow favourites, but the early indications coming from the Erne county suggest that Canavan has a huge task on his hands turning around their fortunes, and that it might be some time before the fruits of that work are visible. Their most recent challenge match result was a ten point loss to a visibly understrength Monaghan team, and after the game, many observers raised questions about the state of fitness of some of the Fermanagh players. No matter how good Canavan turns out to be as a manager, he simply doesn’t have the depth to cast aside players who aren’t quite where they should be fitness wise, and expect a bumpy ride for the month of January as he tries to get his team moving as he would like. Antrim are very much an unknown quantity right now with Liam Bradley bringing in a good few new recruits of his own, but they have picked a very strong half back line and midfield, while Paddy Cunningham, Michael Magill and Conor Murray are proven intercounty standard forwards. They still might have the edge here.

Tyrone play Queens University in the other game in this group and the issue here is how to interpret Mickey Harte’s desire to have all his players available to him at this stage. With so many retirements and a couple of relevant injuries it was always going to be a new look Tyrone team this year, but there have been plenty of promising young footballers coming up through the ranks of the Red Hand county for the past few years and it makes no sense that Harte is so concerned about one or two students who presumably would get plenty of game time in the national football league anyway. The team selected doesn’t look particularly intimidating and it certainly doesn’t justify the 2/7 favouritism afforded them by Paddy Powers. Queens are expected to be a step behind UUJ in the race for the Sigerson Cup this year after several years of less than stellar performances at Freshers level, but even so they will be competitive and should give Tyrone plenty to think about.

Jordanstown face arguably the toughest task of any college team this weekend, taking on Donegal in Letterkenny. Jim McGuinness has come out and said that his Donegal team are in a much better place than they were this time last year, and since they were good enough to beat UUJ in the 2011 renewal of this event, if we could take that assertion at face value we could pile into Donegal. However a training regime involving two sessions every day is likely to take a toll on Donegal and with no real need to win the McKenna Cup, much less target this game, backing Donegal is a dangerous game here. After all, would anyone be really surprised if it emerged after the game that McGuinness had saw fit to put his players through a training session on Sunday morning? Powers and Boyles are both 1/4 Donegal and that price is putting a lot of faith in McGuinness to put his best foot forward in this fixture. We don’t share that faith.

Finally, having put up two outsiders, we’ll finish by recommending the best banker bet of the McKenna Cup coupon – Down to beat Armagh, best priced at 4/6 with Ladbrokes. These two counties have a fierce rivalry going back a long way, but James McCartan has clearly settled on the bones of his best squad and there is a lot of experience available to him for this game. In contrast Armagh manager Paddy O’Rourke is of course without his Crossmaglen players, he’s also without several other frontliners including Rory Grugan, Stephen McDonnell, Kieran McKeever and Kieran Toner. At their best, Armagh would be hard pressed to beat this Down side who have a lot of football under their belts already, and with a shadow team, it’s very hard to be optimistic for the Orchard County.

McKenna Cup Recommendations

Donegal vs UUJ: UUJ @ 10/3 (Powers, Boylesports)

Tyrone vs Queens: Queens @ 3/1 (Powers)

Down vs Armagh: Down @ 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

Following on from our breakdown of the lie of the land for the big ball players out there, it’s now time to turn our hand to their hurling counterparts and to make our projections for 2012. Listed below is the first part of our series incorporating all counties chasing provincial or Liam McCarthy honours. While we would love to extend the courtesy to the Ring/Rackard/Meaghar counties, unfortunately there is simply too much volatility at that level. One or two little things like an increase or decrease in attention from a county board that previously concentrated on football, or a couple of transfers of good club hurlers from other counties, could make a world of difference and while we do our best to pick up on all relevant information here at Starbets.ie, unfortunately every grapevine hides a few morsels of fruit deep within the branches.

The format is the same as was used for the football columns. Counties are ranked in order of how we see them right now, based on results and form, with the current bookmaker rankings in brackets and our prediction for whether they’ll be moving up or down the ladder over the next twelve months.

14. Westmeath (14 – Improvement)

One swallow does not make a summer, and while they had a good day against Carlow in the Leinster championship, they still deserve to be ranked behind the Dolmen county for the moment, as Carlow have been much more consistent in their play for the past few seasons. However the future for Westmeath hurling, in the medium to long term at least, looks bright. The small margin of their defeat to Kilkenny in this year’s Leinster minor hurling semi final was no fluke and neither was their comprehensive win over Offaly in O’Connor Park earlier in that competition. There are some excellent young hurlers coming up along the line in Westmeath and while 2012 might be a little early for a lot of them, the next five years should see the Lake county men improve hugely. We suspect they’ll begin by taking full advantage of their reprieve in the National Hurling league and by making a real push to win division 2A this spring.

13. Carlow (13 – Slight disimprovement)

For all the moaning and wailing from Limerick and Wexford, no county was more damaged by the decision to remake the national hurling league than Carlow. From a position where they were in a good competitive division 2, involving some winnable games and a chance to hurl against some “traditional” counties, they suddenly find themselves right back in with mostly Christy Ring counties. Crucially, they had a chance to avoid this fate but didn’t know it at the time. They made no effort in the last round of the league against Clare when they believed there was nothing at stake, instead resting some key players and blooding younger hurlers. As it turned out, a win in that fixture would have seen them replace Antrim in Division 1b. However having said all that, it’s hard to see where the improvement will come from next year. They’ve regressed at underage level, they still lack dominant players in central positions and while their Leinster championship clash with Laois would have been an ideal draw in 2011, under Teddy McCarthy, Laois should progress well this year.

12. Laois (12 – Improvement)

The decision to bring in one of the most decorated dual stars in the GAA’s history to take charge is a clear sign that Laois hurling intends to make real progress this year. Niall Rigney worked miracles in a difficult environment with the county in recent years, but McCarthy will command even more respect and should be able to get Laois hurling moving in the right direction this year. It’s harsh on Rigney to say that as the Portlaoise clubman is clearly one of the outstanding hurling managers in the game right now, but it’s a simple statement of fact that players will rally around a big name from outside quicker than one of their own. It’s been a long time since Laois people have been able to say with confidence that their best hurlers were all available for selection but they have plenty of glamour league ties to look forward to in Division 1B and a nice draw awaits them in the Leinster championship. Ridiculous though it might sound, Laois will feel they have the beating of Dublin. They don’t, but by shooting for the stars, they’ll still go a long way before they finally fall short.

11. Antrim (11 – Disimprovement)

There is a very real chance that they will have to work without their Loughgiel hurlers for long stretches of the league, and frankly, at any given time Antrim hurling looks capable of imploding. The current standoff with their referees, the debacle that was their attempt at fielding a decent team for the All Ireland semi final against Dublin and the long running bad blood between certain clubs all indicate that there are deep, structural problems in Antrim hurling. Many people in the county celebrated St Galls’ win over Dunloy in the club championship as a sign that hurling was making real progress in Belfast – time may tell that the result said more about Dunloy than it did about Galls. There’s simply no grounds for optimism here.

10. Wexford (10 – no change)

Wexford supporters will look at Offaly, ranked above them, and will ask questions as to why that should be after Wexford deservedly finished above the midlanders in the league. That was even after being asked to play the league game between the two counties in O’Connor Park, when home advantage is traditionally hugely important between these counties. The simple answer is that while they played hard to save their skin in the league, they got the benefit of playing Tipperary when Tipp were in second gear, and when it came to the championship Wexford were hugely disappointing. There are good young hurlers in the county but the sight of Oulart the Ballagh, containing half the county team, playing so poorly against Coolderry in Nowlan Park must have been hugely worrying for Liam Dunne. Indeed Dunne himself failed his tactical exams that day, coming off a distinct second best to Ken Hogan, and with so much work still to be done in the South East, it will be a few years before things get better for them.

9. Offaly (9 – Slight improvement)

As one of the big winners from the league reshuffle, Offaly have been handed a great chance to have a good year in 2012 and with Ollie Baker at the helm, they might just take it. Their one point defeat in Páirc Uí Chaoimh was a huge disappointment and a massive missed opportunity, but it also proved that they have a core group of hurlers capable of troubling the middle tier teams, even if they are still a long way off challenging the big guns. The long term prognosis for the county is very bleak as underage and academy results are appalling, but there is still a strong core group of players there and if David Kenny is finally granted the time to recover properly, they will have a spine capable of competing with anyone. Of course Shane Dooley’s intentions are vital and if he ends up staying in New York he will be almost impossible to replace, but for now they should be looking both to the league and to the Leinster championship with moderate optimism.

8. Cork (5 – Slight disimprovement)

After suggesting that Laois will improve for the recruitment of one famous dual star from Leeside, it seems hypocritical to suggest that the Rebel County themselves won’t benefit for the deployment of an even more famous dual star and former All Ireland winning manager. However 2011 was a terrible year for hurling in Cork and they can thank their lucky stars that they didn’t exit the championship in Páirc Uí Chaoimh against Offaly when a farcical lack of injury time saved them when on the ropes. Against Galway many of their bigger names didn’t appear interested and they just don’t seem to have the leadership they’ll need down the spine of the team. If Cork are good enough to secure a championship win over any of the top four or five counties in 2012, it will mean one of two things – either Jimmy Barry Murphy is a miracle worker, or else every player on the team owes Denis Walsh a huge apology for phoning it in under his leadership. We suspect it won’t be an issue.

Following on from yesterday, let’s continue our pre-Christmas rundown on the state of play of the various counties as they approach the start of the 2012 pre season. As before, the number on the left is their Starbets ranking, the number in brackets is where they are ranked in the betting for Sam Maguire in 2012, followed by our prediction for where they will be ranked this time next year.

25. Sligo (18 – Slight improvement)
It’s been quite the fall from grace for Sligo, who only eighteen months ago had just beaten Galway and Mayo and were odds on favourites to win a Connacht title. They let their chance slip against the Rossies in the Connacht decider, before collapsing against Down in the qualifiers and enduring a terrible season in 2011. Manager Kevin Walsh has some of the best individual defenders in Ireland playing for the Yeats county, while David Kelly is a fine scoring threat, but from 8 to 12 the team is weak and they need to find a lot of improvement this year. Division three should give them a chance to get off to a good start and gain some confidence, but they can ill afford to start slowly and need results sooner rather than later.

24. Cavan (25 – Significant improvement)

2012 is a massive year for Cavan football. The Breffni men have been in the doldrums (as opposed to the drumlins!) for too long now and manager Val Andrews knows that he needs to start turning things around. The success of their under-21 panel last year will provide an invaluable injection of fresh blood into the senior panel and while the poor performance of Cavan Gaels was a disappointment, if they can address issues in the wide defensive positions, they certainly have enough flair up front to cause teams real problems.

23. Tipperary (22 – slight disimprovement)

With new county champions coming from territory that usually doesn’t make a huge contribution to the county team and an All Ireland winning group of minor footballers, the long term prognosis for Tipperary football is very, very bright. However it could be a few years yet before things really start to improve and there is a real danger that too much will be asked of a lot of young footballers before they are ready to deliver. Barry Grogan’s incredible talent will keep them in touch in games but for now, Tipperary should be happy just to hold on to division three status and keep things ticking over for the next couple of years.

22. Louth (20 – Disimprovement)

Not unusually for Louth football, most of their best work was done in the Spring as opposed to the summer in 2011. They enjoyed a good O’Byrne Cup, they got off to a great start in the league but then started to stutter as the ground began to harden, even if they did muster up a big performance in the Division 3 final. However their deterioration continued in the championship and they could be about to learn the same lesson that Mayo did when John O’Mahony was elected to the Dáil – if a manager is working as a TD, he won’t be able to give his county team as much attention as they deserve and results will reflect that.

21. Westmeath (19 – Slight disimprovement)

After deservedly securing promotion in 2011, they may feel hard done by to still be ranked in the bottom half, but it’s hard to ignore two very poor championship performances against mid-ranking opposition. Some very good young footballers have emerged from the Lake County in recent years, even if one of the best of them (John Heslin) is out in Australia, but Denis Glennon has yet to prove that he can carry the team in the same way that Dessie Dolan has done for over a decade now. There is potential for improvement here, but it’s going to be a tough campaign in division 2 and the ominous presence of Dublin in their quarter of the Leinster draw probably limits their capacity, in Leinster at least.

20. Offaly (21 – Slight disimprovement)

They mixed the good with the bad in the league, digging out three crucial away wins while losing out on promotion due to bad performances against Westmeath and Tipperary. This trend continued in the championship with two awful performances and one very impressive one against Monaghan. For 2012, their fate will depend on how their twenty-something footballers grow up in the absence of Ciarán McManus, who played some of his best football last year. The Tubber midfielder was a huge presence in the Offaly dressing room and a new look team is likely to take the field this year – which could be no bad thing, though they will meet more than a few bumps along the road.

19. Antrim (24 – Slight improvement)

The Ulster championship draw has worked out very nicely for Antrim and they’ll rightly believe that they have every chance of making real progress next year. Some of the best young footballers in Ulster should be breaking into their squad very soon and if they can keep a lid on some of the more explosive characters in the dressing room, they have a lot of the ingredients needed to make progress.

18. Longford (23 – Slight disimprovement)

Unquestionably the most improved county in 2011, Glen Ryan has stamped his authority on this team but at the same time allowed the natural, attacking style of the players in the county to flourish. The issue now will be building and sustaining the progress that was made since he took over, a task which should be made easier by the existence of a few very bright young prospects that were part of the Leinster minor winning team in 2010. The old reliable attackers like Brian Kavanagh and the Bardens aren’t getting any younger, but they have some excellent man marking defenders and a lot of good energy around the middle of the field. Their first round battle with Laois in Pearse Park already looks like it could be one of the most enjoyable games in the championship.

Continuing our series of looks at the antepost GAA betting markets for the national football leagues that are now available, next on the list is the minefield that is divison three, a treacherous betting heat where any team is capable of winning and any team is capable of making the drop. One of the key lessons from results in the past few years is that getting stuck into short priced favourites has generally ended in tears. Louth were moderately well fancied last year but generally this league has thrown up more than it’s fair share of upsets, as Limerick can testify. The Treaty county were the 10/3 favourites generally before a ball was thrown in at all, but they got off to a terrible start and now must face into playing division four football in a few weeks.

It’s a mark of the decline in the state of Cavan football that the blue blooded Ulster men are stone last in the betting, despite being handed four home games and operating in a county that cares so little about hurling that they have officially disbanded their senior county team. It’s incredible to think that a county with so many really strong football clubs have fallen to this level, even after putting together some decent results last year after a very bad start. Their management team appears to tick all the boxes as well with a good footballing man in Val Andrews at the helm, John Morrison taking over the physical training side, and Terry Hyland as selector providing local insight. Add in a good crop of young footballers and there are actually plenty of reasons for giving plenty of consideration to the 14/1 on offer from Victor Chandlers and Paddy Powers.

By far Cavan’s toughest tie will be their first round battle with Wexford at Wexford Park, but that’s the perfect time to have your toughest match, when good teams are most vulnerable to an upset. If the Breffni men were to get a win here, their price would plummet, while defeat would be unlikely to cause them to drift any farther than 16/1 or 18/1. At first glance, they look like the value selection of this league.

In comparison, some of the favourites make little or no appeal. Roscommon will be heavily depleted in the early rounds due to the absence of their St Brigids contingent, while their general standing in the country’s footballing pecking order is somewhat overstated at the best of times due to their presence in Connacht, where reaching a provincial final is often a very moderate achievement. If the Brigids players were guaranteed to return after the first two rounds when they play Tipperary and Offaly, then the 7/1 from Powers might be worth a second look. However they aren’t, and it isn’t. Whisper it quietly, but if there was betting on offer on which team would get relegated, we’d be all over anything over 5/2 about the Rossies.

Wexford are probably one of the strongest teams in this division however they’ve been slow starters for a few years now and are unlikely to change their approach this year. Only three home games is a drawback, and the best price of 10/3 from Hills simply isn’t even close to being long enough to justify a bet. They can win, but they’ll have their work cut out to win five games all the same.

Tipperary have some great footballers coming up through their development teams, however that has to be measured against the profile of their starting team from last year, which had plenty of players that are coming towards the end of their careers. The long term future of the county is bright, and the fixture list has been kind in pitching them against Roscommon in week one when the Brigids players will be absent, but they lack the consistency required to be suggested as value.For the moment, their price looks reasonably accurate.

Sligo regressed considerably in 2011 and relegation from division two was followed by championship defeats to Leitrim and Wicklow, casting a pall over the county. Tourlestrane didn’t do anything to change the mood after losing badly to St Brigids in the Connacht championship. Kevin Walsh still has a good core group of players to work with but he faces something of a dilemma this Spring, torn between giving some new players opportunities to learn and develop in the league and sticking with his tried and trusted group who would give him the best possible chance of promotion. Walsh would never admit this publicly, but since division three offers competitive games, Sligo would possibly be happy just to avoid relegation next year. They should just about do that, but you can see why Hills are going after them at 7/1.

Longford, in contrast, have plenty of momentum after winning the Division 4 title and playing very competitively in the championship in the summer. Glen Ryan, not unlike his Sligo counterpart, doesn’t have huge depth to work with, but their schedule is absolutely ideal. Roscommon, Wexford, Offaly and Antrim all have to travel to Pearse Park, while Longford won’t mind making the short trip across to Breffni Park, or down the N4 to Sligo. Indeed even travelling to Tipperary is not really a daunting trip in that while Tipperary are decent opponents, an empty Semple Stadium is hardly a melting pot of an atmosphere. That could change if Tipp’s home games revert to Clonmel, but for now Longford should be looking forward to the start of the league campaign with some optimism.One or two injuries, particularly defensive ones, would be costly, but that’s a risk with any team at this level.

Leinster rivals Offaly are something of an unknown quantity under new manager Gerry Cooney and a new look outfit is likely to take the field for their season opener against Longford in Pearse Park. They’ve shed some senior players and while there is plenty of footballing talent in the county – witness their outstanding qualifier victory over Monaghan last year – there are huge deficits in terms of tight marking full back line players, and real leaders in the spinal positions on the field now that Ciarán McManus has retired. They can’t be ruled out, but betting on them before we get some indication of how they shape up under Cooney’s management in the O’Byrne competitions makes no sense.

Finally we have Antrim, another side playing in division two after dropping down last spring. There are plenty of talented players in the county and if they got everyone pulling in the same direction, 8/1 from Hills would be a very attractive price. Indeed if we knew Antrim were going to play to their potential in the same way that we could depend on Longford for example, we’d be recommending a substantial bet right now – sadly we can’t be sure of anything of the sort. Watch their performances in the McKenna Cup carefully, and if they go well, then they might be worth a second look.

The football qualifiers continue to come think and fast, with the eight counties in action this weekend beginning to realise that there could very soon be some light at the end of the tunnel. Already half the participating teams have departed the race for the Sam Maguire Cup, and one more victory will leave any of those remaining, who recently felt like their dreams were dashed, tantalisingly close to Croke Park. For some, it’s still hard to imagine them playing in the last eight of the All Ireland championship, but for others, it’s hard to see them denied.

Down vs Antrim

For long spells of last weekend’s match in Newry, Down struggled to gain real supremacy over Leitrim and they even looked like they could have been in danger of losing the match at times. That they still won by eight points is an indication of the class that there is in the red and black jerseys, while in Casement Park Antrim were extremely fortunate to come through against Carlow – or indeed Carlow were extremely unfortunate, from the point of view of this column, which recommended them at 5/1.

The local derby element will come into play to a certain extent, but even allowing for this, Antrim look overmatched here. Liam Bradley is unlikely to start without Paddy Cunningham this week but even if Cunningham plays and plays well, there simply aren’t enough free scorers in that Antrim forward line. Down should relish the big pitch in Casement Park and after two warnings now, they should be on their toes. 10/11 about Down minus four is a decent bet, but Ladbrokes are also offering 7/4 about Down to score over 1.5 goals. In ten league and championship games this year, only Meath have failed to find the net against the Saffrons and with Down’s attacking talent, raising two green flags is a very realistic prospect.

Wicklow vs Armagh

Hands up time here – this column definitely did not see that coming. Wicklow (and indeed the bookmakers, who would have cheered the demise of countless multiple bets) were blessed that Seán Furlong’s normal time goal was allowed after a questionable amount of steps, while his extra time strike also came after dubious handpass, but even so Armagh will be very worried at the way that Leighton Glynn’s movement and energy really unsettled their full back line, and also how James Stafford and Rory Finn lorded matters at midfield. Their return to Aughrim is a huge boost for Wicklow, but the value of that ground can sometimes be overstated. A field of grass is simply a field of grass and while Aughrim is not the most easily accessible village in Ireland, their venue remains a good open pitch where footballers should thrive.

Given that Armagh have been forewarned now and that Paddy O’Rourke is likely to do a lot better tactically this week, we’ll take the risk of compounding our error by suggesting Armagh minus two points as the best bet.

Limerick vs Waterford

Limerick fully deserved their win over Offaly in the Gaelic Grounds, but as we warned in this column, if Offaly got dragged into a battle, they were always going to come off second best. They needed to get in front and to force Limerick to come out and chase the game, a strategy that went out the window when Ian Ryan and Seamus O’Carroll struck for early goals.

Limerick’s lack of fielding ability will come back to haunt them some other time, but they might still have enough to get through Waterford. However scorelines of 1-17 and 3-13 are very out of character for these teams and bearing in mind how well both sides know each other after playing each other competitively four times in the last 18 months, not to mention a challenge match a fortnight ago, and a low scoring tie could be in prospect. Take under 30.5 points at even money.

Kildare vs Meath

Kildare’s ridiculously good record in the qualifiers continued last week with a crushing victory over Laois, while Meath proved once again that having big names in your forward line is no guarantee of getting plenty of scores. They limped over the line against Galway and their inability to kick points continues to hold them back.

These two sides are operating on completely different levels right now and there is simply no reason why Páirc Tailteann, tradition, or any other factor will compensate for that. Kildare’s very game is built on intensity and they do not know any other way to play – they can win this game and win it well. 1/2 about Kildare on the match betting market is a great odds on bet, but those looking for a big price should take Kildare to win by 7-9 pts at 6/1, and possibly even the 12/1 about a 10-12pt win.

Limerick vs Offaly

The reasons to go against Limerick are plentiful, and certainly if Offaly come close to replicating their performance against Monaghan, they should come through this fixture with relative ease. Losing heavily to Kerry wouldn’t be something that a lot of counties would lose sleep over, however in 2010 Limerick came desperately close to beating Kerry in a Munster Final and to have lost so much ground to them in the space of twelve months must be hugely disconcerting. Injuries to Jim O’Donovan, Eoin Joy and John Galvin rob them of a lot of presence around the midfield sector, not to mention the inspirational leadership that Galvin brings to any game.

However there is also plenty of cause to hold fire here – Offaly’s performance in O’Connor Park against Monaghan was hewn out of a fierce desire to prove a point after letting themselves down so badly against Wexford. Their need to set the record straight in front of their home supporters (and three times as many Monaghan supporters) was palpable and it’s far from certain that they’ll have the same passion for performance now that they are no longer the subject of criticism on the national airwaves. On the grounds that if they play well, they can win well, but without wanting to risk too much capital on the psychology involved, we’ll take 8/1 from Ladbrokes about Offaly winning by 7-9pts inclusive.

Antrim vs Carlow

Antrim are marginally the better team, they have home advantage, and they have some momentum after winning their most recent game – all advantages in their favour. However while these advantages are useful, they do not explain odds of 1/7 Antrim and 11/2 Carlow. Carlow’s win over Louth was a huge milestone for the county and having got a taste for success and now been handed a winnable tie in the qualifiers, it would be a huge shock if Carlow lay down easily in Belfast. Luke Dempsey’s grievances over the throw in time are understandable but still it’s hardly the huge obstacle that he suggests, while he’s also well versed in plotting through the qualifiers from his time with Westmeath and Longford.

Antrim are a very solid team but they don’t score much, and much like a boxer without a knockout punch, they always give a weaker opponent a chance. Seán Gannon is a big loss, but there are scores in Willie Minchin, his replacement, while Cormac Mullins is there to come on at any stage. Purely on price, 11/2 is worth a shout.

London vs Waterford

Perhaps this columnist is just suffering from a touch of the Doubting Thomas syndrome, but the idea that London are suddenly a force to be reckoned with in the qualifiers defies logic. Their win over Fermanagh was great for the GAA community in London and it was the least that a lot of devoted Gaels over there deserved, but Fermanagh were absolutely in tatters going over there so people suggesting things like London suddenly having the potential to go all the way to the quarter finals are getting hugely carried away.

The problem for punters this week is that the signs are that Waterford might not be in great shape either. Last week they were torn asunder by Limerick in a challenge match and so they too could be vulnerable. Waterford at full speed and with everybody tuned in would win this by six or seven points, regardless of how much London have improved. However without knowing for sure what state the Déise men are in, this is no bet country.

Down vs Leitrim

Clearly all is not well in the Leitrim camp. Wayne McKeon, their man of the match against Sligo, has left the squad due to disciplinary reasons, while the absence of Conor and Tomás Beirne from the match day panel is another baffling surprise. Leitrim football simply doesn’t have the depth to replace guys of this calibre and it must surely be devastating for players who have put their heart and soul into playing well for Leitrim to see things fall apart like this.

Down got their scare against Clare, and last year, after Down got scared by Offaly, they turned around and devoured Sligo in the next match. Leitrim look like they are in the wrong place at the wrong time, and even though Ladbrokes’ handicap of minus ten points looks high, we’re still going to recommend the 10/11 about Down covering that line.

The first round of the qualifiers is a unique test for punters in that it is often a test of the ability to read minds and mindsets as much as it is a test of the ability to read footballing skill and attributes.

Most of the match ups usually lack the local rivalry element that add a little bit of heat to the encounter, and in many cases players are often more concerned about catching a flight to America, or perhaps even getting back to their clubs and getting on with domestic affairs, than they are with prolonging a county season that is often going nowhere to begin with.

Either way, here’s Off the Ground’s assessment of the eight football qualifiers taking place tomorrow.

London vs Fermanagh

This column’s honest assessment is this – it’s impossible to say what the right price is, except that 1/2 Fermanagh and 15/8 London, as Ladbrokes have chalked up, is simply not it. This was not the draw Fermanagh wanted at all, on any level. They have one of the smallest budgets on the intercounty circuit and a €20k trip to London was not what the doctor ordered at all. With London on a high, the general perception is that Fermanagh are ripe for the picking, and the money has reflected this, piling into the Exiles who were as big as 5/1 in places when the odds were first released.

If Fermanagh buy into all this, then London should be favourites. If Fermanagh travel over here determined not to become the first county to lose to London in the qualifiers and believing that there is still something to be salvaged out of this season, then they are 1/6 shots. After all London are still the same county that manage one league win over anyone other than Kilkenny every couple of years. As we said, 1/2 is not right, but ascertaining the correct odds is another matter entirely. The lot of the compiler is an unhappy one here.

Fermanagh minus three at 6/5 looks like the best bet here, given that even though their best players are at home, those that travel still have a lot of pride in the jersey and won’t lie down, and London have lost the element of surprise.

Clare vs Down

Clare have better footballers than they are often given credit for, and if they smelled blood in the water, they would be a real dangerous outsider. Unfortunately Down is simply too big a target, they needed a Cavan, Sligo, Offaly or Antrim to come to Ennis. The retirement of John Clarke, the injury to Danny Hughes, uncertainty over the defensive credentials of the half back line, all these issues still have to be addressed by James McCartan, but they won’t be solved this week. Either way, Down will win here and probably cover the spread in the process.

Louth vs Meath

Remember all that stuff in the first paragraph about how qualifiers often lack the bite due to counties meeting that have no axe to grind? Well scratch that for this one.

It’s a huge pity that this tie couldn’t take place in Louth, because this could have been a humdinger of a tie if it was played in Drogheda with supporters hanging from the rafters, baying for Royal County blood. That wasn’t possible, but even so Louth could be in with a chance here.

Much of the discussion after Kildare’s Leinster quarter final win over Meath centred on Kildare’s inability to shoot, which was fair comment but still missed the point from a Meath perspective. Meath won 50% of the primary possession in that game at least, and yet they had less than half the number of chances as Kildare.

Meath simply don’t know how to turn possession into scoring chances under Banty and a Meath team playing possession football is a round peg trying to fit into a square hole – it’s just not natural. Paddy Keenan can spoil the midfield at least, he won’t meet anyone as good as Brendan Murphy here, and while the Louth half forward line is hugely underwhelming, if Meath turn over ball the same way as they did against Kildare, then Lennon, Maguire and Rooney will get chances.

Louth being Louth, a heartbreaking defeat is always possible, so 6/5 about Louth plus two is the best play.

Offaly vs Monaghan

Even as an Offaly native, calling this one is tough. Offaly have the players to give Monaghan a tough time in Tullamore, but banking on them to be in the right mindset to do so is a risky game. The Wexford game hurt this team and management badly, and subsequent events that have accused them of being good-time-charlies can’t have gone down well either. In many counties that would lead to a backlash, but sometimes backlashes in Offaly don’t always work out how one would imagine. They often take place far away from the field of play.

Anton Sullivan is a huge loss and while the team named is certainly not that which will start, the withdrawal of John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan robs Tom Cribbin of several options so there won’t be that many surprises.

If Offaly get goals, this could be close, but they’ll need the rub of the green because they have proven that they can’t overcome any bad luck in the middle of games.

Laois vs Tipperary

The accepted wisdom regarding this fixture is that Laois were going the right way under Justin McNulty, they just overdid the defensive play and got blown away by a strong Dublin team. That’s as may be, but Tipperary played a strong Kerry team and got no luck, so it’s very early to say that they are way off the pace. Tipperary are a solid division three team, no better, no worse, while Laois are a cut above that. However the Laois half forward line is desperately short on scoring power and there remain question marks over the form of both Kingston and Tierney. Laois should win, but 1/3 with Ladbrokes is way too short. Instead, take even money about less than 28.5 points in the game. It’s hard to see either side scoring fifteen points in this game, never mind both of them.

Cavan vs Longford

It says a lot that despite all the comments directed at the problems in Leinster football, one of the weakest counties in the province is favoured to win away from home against an Ulster team who would probably be regarded as no worse than seventh in the northern province right now. This is a great fixture for the locals who share a keen rivalry but rarely get to meet on the field. Longford to win is the accepted wisdom, but it mightn’t be that simple. No bet here, there’s just too many talented forwards on that Cavan team who could hit form at any time.

Wicklow vs Sligo

What looked like a reasonable assignment for Sligo when the fixture was drawn up has grown more and more difficult as their list of absentees has extended. Johnny Davey and David Kelly are unable to return, Ken Sweeney has followed Keelan Cawley out of Ireland, Brendan Curran and Alan Costello are suspended and all in all Sligo look to have their work cut out for them. Ladbrokes appear to be of the same mind here, offering Sligo at a best price of even money, while only giving 11/10 to Wicklow backers. In a neutral venue, with both sides at full strength, Sligo would be 2/5 here – right now, Wicklow probably deserve narrow favouritism and would be the tentative call.

Antrim vs Westmeath

Two sides that were desperately poor in the first round, but the managers have taken a very different approach to this qualifier tie. Liam Bradley has picked the same Antrim side as started against Donegal, while Pat Flanagan has reverted to type with a very defensive alignment, including two wing forwards who would usually be known as defenders. The other side of this is that the selection of Denis Corroon as a wing back is an unusual one, but one that Gary Connaughton could look to target with kickouts.

The Westmeath hurlers would happily testify as to how difficult it is to play an away fixture in Belfast, so far from home, however the 13/10 makes plenty of appeal even so. Dessie Dolan and Denis Glennon is a fine inside forward pairing and while they were out-gunned against Wexford, Antrim simply don’t have the same scoring power to match them blow for blow. Another low scoring battle could be in prospect here, but we’ll give the tentative nod to the outsiders to sneak it. In fact Westmeath to win by 1-3pts would be our favourite winning margin bet of the week.

It’s very fair to say that while the football championship is getting underway in some measure of style this weekend, we still have a week to wait before the hurling championship really ignites. That’s not to disrespect Laois, Antrim, Carlow or Westmeath, but the odds on those teams featuring in September don’t offer any value – they reflect four teams whose ambitions are very moderate in the wider scheme of things. These early matches are of huge significance to people in Cushendall, Camross, Clonkill and Carlow Town, but outside of those hurling heartlands, there won’t be any burning desire to examine those matches in depth.

However from a position a few years ago where the Leinster SHC was a dead betting contest which Kilkenny sauntered through, it has now suddenly become at least as interesting as it’s Munster equivalent. (And no, that’s not a comment designed to rouse the Munster Hurling purists into a vitriolic fury!).

I say interesting, because there is so much novelty to this year’s championship. After years of hoping that Wexford and Offaly would somehow catch the Cats unawares, we have now reached a situation where both of those counties are almost forgotten about, since the analysts have much bigger fish to fry.

Starting first with Offaly, and sadly from this writer’s point of view, drawing a line through them for betting purposes is absolutely the right  thing to do. The Joe Dooley era has never really taken off and while the midlanders stumbled through 2010, doing enough to give the Clareen men a fourth year at the helm, the wheels have come off this year in spectacular fashion.

Offaly were handed the dream league draw with four home fixtures against supposedly beatable opposition and only played competitively in one of the four games, while the constant moaning and wailing about injuries is simply a cover story, preparing the ground for the horror show that could be on the cards in nine days time.

Of those players out injured, Joe Brady is very similar in style to Peter Healion, so there will be no loss there, while Paul Cleary would probably start but how much of an improvement he’d be over somebody like Dylan Hayden who he might replace is debatable to say the least.

James Rigney is a huge loss all right, but certainly no more than Joey Boland for Dublin, for example. Indeed the most significant injury issue has been David Kenny’s inability to get properly recovered from his hamstring, knee and other ailments and Dooley has taken the option here to play the Belmont man for every possible minute, doing the full back no good whatsoever.

There is no shape, style or reason to Offaly’s hurling this year and another heavy defeat to Dublin, as happened in O’Connor Park already this year, could be on the cards.

But what of Dublin from then on? Well perhaps I’m easily impressed, but Dublin look for all the world like they are the real deal in 2011 – genuine Leinster and All Ireland contenders. Anthony Daly has taken a group of capable hurlers, who have tipped the hat to nobody at underage level, and moulded them into a physically powerful and hugely co-ordinated team. Players move in and out of the first fifteen at ease, while Conal Keaney and Ryan O’Dwyer have introduced a touch of real class to augment an already powerful group. 11/2 is a much shorter price than was available earlier, however it’s still hard to see Dublin’s match prices working out much longer than that when multiplied together.

Galway actually come into this Leinster campaign relatively unheralded after a real mixed bag of a league campaign. They beat the two league finalists but some very poor performances away from home to Waterford and Cork, not to mention a shocker in Pearse Stadium against Tipp, ensured that they finished in mid-table.

Iarla Tannion has been a hugely improved performer and in theory Galway should be a leading contender for every trophy going with Joe Canning coming back into an already strong attack, but in Galway it seems that either Joe Canning can hurl well, or the rest of the Galway forwards can, but not both. John McIntyre is still struggling with the issue of getting the rest of his forward line to step up and support the Portumna man instead of stepping aside and letting him carry the workload, while they have real problems in the full back line again.

Last year’s one point loss to Tipperary in an enthralling All Ireland quarter final could spur them on, or it could be another cross to bear. 10/3 to beat Dublin and Kilkenny is just too short when they need to get on top of all these issues.

Carlow and Westmeath can be safely written off, while Antrim had a good year in 2010 but still didn’t show anything against Laois to suggest that they’ll be able to pull off another away win in Wexford Park.

But what of Wexford, who will then go on to meet Kilkenny in another home fixture? Midway through the league it looked as if Wexford were floundering desperately and that their trip to Tullamore was a forlorn hope. They came away from O’Connor Park with nothing, but somehow found the will and the ability to take three points against Cork and Tipperary and to deservedly save their division one status. Nobody would argue for a second that Tipperary were at full pelt against Wexford in Thurles, but they still took a four point lead and left Wexford with a mountain to climb, which Wexford duly conquered.

Looking forward however, their forward line is still way too weak. Wexford have some fine defenders and they dominated several good forwards during the Spring league campaign, but they just don’t have the kind of hurlers who can take quick and easy scores by just catching a puckout, shrugging off an opponent and putting the ball over the bar from fifty metres out. Everything they do is real hard work and while they might stay within the spread against Kilkenny and even a draw cannot be dismissed, they won’t have the wherewithal to consign Kilkenny to the qualifiers.

Which, of course, leads us to the Cats. Kilkenny, currently 1/2 with Ladbrokes, have been the subject of countless diagnoses of terminal illness from pundits all over Ireland, but yet there is a feeling that a lot of the writing off of Brian Cody’s men is wishful thinking.

Yes they have problems, but the re-introduction of hurlers like Tommy Walsh, Henry Shefflin and Richie Power, to name a few, would solve pretty much any problem that any hurling team ever had. Despite all their years of experience, most of those Kilkenny hurlers never experienced a day like the National Hurling League final and that sensation is probably burning within every one of them and for all the criticism of their lack of youth in the current panel, Colin Fennelly has been a revelation this year while Richie Doyle looks like a fine prospect who will play a part at some point.

Kilkenny don’t appear to represent value at 1/2 just yet, simply on the basis that whoever wins between Dublin and Galway will arrive at headquarters for the Leinster final with a tidal wave of support behind them, while at the same time no matter what Kilkenny do against Wexford, it will be perceived as “only Wexford”. It’s not inconceivable that in that situation, 4/7 about Kilkenny or even 4/6 outright could be available. That will be the time to play, not now.

Taking a break from our antepost previews for a moment, now that we’ve got an idea of teams for the weekend it seemed opportune to have a look at the two championship matches down for decision this Saturday and Sunday. Antrim and Laois get the Leinster hurling championship underway on Saturday night in O’Moore Park, and Ladbrokes’ odds are notable here in that they are a standout best price on Antrim at even money.

Bookmakers taking their own opinions instead of blindly following the market is what this game is all about, but unfortunately from a punting perspective, Off the Ground’s opinion tallies with that of the Ladbrokes GAA brains trust so we won’t be recommending digging deep on this game.

Respect for Antrim is largely borne out of their strong performances against Dublin and Cork in last year’s championship, however the time to build on that success was this spring in the national hurling league when a division two final place was there for the taking. Losing to Clare by a point early in the season was a huge missed opportunity, however there was a chance to recover from that defeat in O’Moore Park.

However when the chance to stay in the division two race was on the line, Laois were comfortably the better team in their round robin league meeting, also in O’Moore Park. Even though reaching the final looked to be out of Antrim’s grasp after this result, their game against Limerick was a great chance to get some positive momentum going into the championship season. However once again they failed utterly in their goal of competing with the Shannonsiders and they ended the league in mid table, as usual.

Laois have lost a few key players this year but if it wasn’t for their shocking display in Portaferry against Down, they would have nicked second spot from Clare and really made the country sit up and take notice. The absence of players like Mick McEvoy, Darren Maher, Cahir Healy and Tommy Fitzgerald was always likely to point the national media towards putting a negative asterisk beside Laois this year, but the sad truth of Laois hurling in recent years is that they’ve always been missing some key performers, and at least the naming of Brian Campion at full back gives them some solidity at the edge of the square that they thought up to now that they might also be missing.

Laois have had the upper hand over Antrim in the last couple of years, winning the last three meetings between the sides and in front of a good home crowd, boosted by the presence of the Laois minor footballers featuring on the undercard, they can edge this game.

Earlier in the week we would have tipped Antrim to overachieve in the big ball code instead, but one has to wonder what Liam Bradley was thinking in denigrating Donegal’s style of play earlier this week. One of the biggest assets that Antrim had coming into this game was complacency within Donegal football circles, and taking cheap shots at your opponent is one sure fire way of making sure that they don’t overlook you.

The league match between the two counties is of no relevance here as Antrim were severely depleted on that occasion, indeed Liam Bradley made sure that his team were woefully under par by playing a very weakened side and they appear to be a lot closer to full strength this week, with the exception of Kevin McGourty and long term absentee CJ McGourty.

Cargin midfielder Michael McCann has made the cut however and midfield is one area where Antrim could enjoy an advantage this week. They’ll need to, because Michael Murphy and Colm McFadden have the ability to destroy any inside line if they get good early ball delivered in their direction.

Ultimately the odds always dictate the bets and while logic suggests that Donegal should win this game, 1/5 is a very short price about a repeat fixture of a game that Antrim won only two years ago. Donegal were 1/7 for that fixture and they wobbled when the game was there for the taking, and the same thing is quite possible here.

A lot will depend on discipline within the Donegal camp – the Tir Chonaill men used to be one of the leading accumulators of red cards in Ireland, however Jim McGuinness appears to have eliminated that side of things from their game. They should win, but unless they drift out to 1/3 or even 5/4 minus four points, it couldn’t be a recommendation. Small stakes only on an Antrim win is the best option here.

For the senior footballers and hurlers in action this weekend in Portlaoise and Ballybofey, they go into battle knowing that even in the case of defeat, the qualifiers will offer them a second chance later in the summer. However there are ten counties in minor action this weekend as well and in each of their cases, they face into old fashioned straight knockout football.

Ladbrokes are offering prices on all five games, and Donegal and Dublin are the two leading favourites, each priced at 1/4 to continue their summer adventures. In Donegal’s case, their status as a short odds banker is probably justified, with Antrim looking like possibly the weakest team in the province at minor level.

Many of these young Donegal footballers spent the winter playing together in the All Ireland Vocational Schools competition and they successfully won the All Ireland title at that grade, beating off stiff competition from Meath and Cork in the All Ireland series. Between form from that competition, home advantage and the lack of any signs of life from Antrim, this looks like as good a 1/4 shot as any minor team can ever be, though backing teenagers at such short odds is always fraught with risk.

Dublin, on the other hand, could have their work cut out for them. Dessie Farrell’s charges have been the eye catching minor team this spring, blazing a trail through the Leinster league and comfortably beating on all comers en route. They have huge strength in depth and their first round win over Westmeath was outstanding.

All that said, they’ve got a very tough draw here and they represent no value at 1/4. They are five or six points the better team than Longford probably, however home advantage will play into Longford’s hands, while much more importantly, Longford now have three good championship games under their belts. The value of getting games in cannot be overstated in this competition and while Dessie has a panel of over thirty very capable footballers to choose from, that can sometimes make settling on your best team very difficult. Dublin should win this game, but at 1/4, stay well clear.

Kildare have been widely flagged as the second best team in the province and certainly their comfortable first round win over Longford indicates that this is an excellent group of young footballers. Midfielder Gavin Farrell put in an awesome display in that match and he’ll be very hard to stop here, however they’ve been handed a very tough tie away to Offaly and this game could yet turn out to be a very tough test for the Lily Whites.

Both sides are missing key players from their first round games through injury – Kildare have lost captain and corner forward Tony Gibbons due to a broken arm, while Offaly have lost centre back Eamonn McCabe and full forward Brian Grehan, two equally important players on their side. Given an equal level of preparation, Kildare would be entitled to favouritism here but while their players were playing club championship last weekend, Offaly had a good workout together against Down and showed plenty of ability in a two goal defeat in Malahide. Offaly could be worth a second look at 11/8 here.

Wexford’s trip to Meath is the toughest game of all to call because Wexford’s only championship form is a 7-17 to 0-0 win over Kilkenny, which obviously enough tells us nothing at all about them. Meath were surprisingly beaten by Louth in the first round and walked all over Carlow in the backdoor, which equally gives us no real indication of how they are fixed. Word from Wexford on this team is generally positive and while it’s tough to measure exactly where they are, Meath might not be good enough to be trusted here, even if they should be better placed due to having two real games and home field advantage.

Finally Louth travel to Laois, and while Louth are traditionally not very strong at this level, the success of the Dundalk Colleges team in the Leinster Colleges A competition allied to their first round win over Meath suggests that this year might be the exception to that rule.

Louth manager Thomas McNamee has been talking down his charges to a certain extent, while within Laois expectations are moderate around the 2011 minor vintage also. However young footballers don’t think like that and Louth should be on a high after that big win over their near rivals. These two sides met earlier this year in a league game in Darver, a match that ended in a 1-4 to 0-7 draw, however both sides were heavily depleted that day so there is very little to be drawn from that result.

Our narrow preference here is for Louth, on the basis that Ladbrokes are offering odds of 11/10 against, and the fact that they should take more confidence from their season opener. It’s a close call however, not one to justify a large bet.

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