Concluding our series of report cards, we now take a look at the second tier of the National Hurling League, featuring five teams with managers facing into their first championship at the helm of their current team. Indeed for four of the five bosses in question, it will be their first ever championship as an intercounty manager.

Clare – B

The Banner County deservedly topped the Division 1B class and yet again, David Fitzgerald is proving that a very astute hurling brain lies beneath his ferociously competitive and tempestuous exterior. Granted he’s got plenty of raw material to work with in Clare at the moment as some of the best young hurlers in Ireland are natives of the county, but they ticked every box over the course of the league. They produced a stunning display to blow Limerick out of the water in week one, they safely negotiated banana skin fixtures against Antrim and Laois, they hurled Wexford off the park without getting out of second gear, they beat Offaly in Tullamore with a reserve team and they came back from a large deficit in the 1B final against Limerick. It was disappointing that they failed to produce something different to unsettle Kilkenny a little in the league semi final, but generally things are moving well in Clare and they look like real Munster championship contenders right now, particularly with Tipperary struggling to find form.

Limerick – D

They huffed and puffed about dubious decisions in their drawn game against Offaly, but really they should have had the Faithful County long put away before then. They’ve made no real progress since last year and there are too many positions on the spine of their team still up for grabs, way more than should be the case with a manager in his second year. They have great potential and should be relishing the prospect of a Munster championship clash with Tipp, but too many of their new discoveries from last year seem to be suffering from a “sophomore slump” for that to be a realistic betting prospect at the moment.

Offaly – D

Offaly are comfortable hurling at division 1B level but will look back at all three of their games against decent opposition with some level of regret. They absolutely hurled Wexford off the park in round 2 of the campaign before inexplicably conceding three late goals and losing out by a point, they went out of the game for long spells against Limerick and still got a draw and had plenty of chances to beat Clare in Tullamore. Still, they actually have more depth in the panel than has been the case for a long time and with players like David Kenny and Rory Hanniffy fit, they actually have plenty of real leaders in the team. They will be better than they were in 2011, but time will tell how much better.

Wexford – E

We could try and paint a positive picture here, but there would be no justification for doing so. They deservedly lost to Antrim, they showed plenty of character but little hurling in their win over Offaly and nothing that we’ve seen so far suggests that Liam Dunne has a clear plan in terms of where he’s going with the team and what way he wants them to play. Winning a Leinster championship seems as far away as ever and while it’s now been twelve years since they lost to Offaly in the championship, that day looks to be closer than ever.

Antrim – B

Jerry Wallace should actually be really happy with how his side performed this Spring. Playing without the Loughgiel hurlers for the vast, vast majority of the campaign, they beat Wexford, put Offaly under real pressure in Tullamore and produced a great comeback when they needed it against Laois. They actually look to be in a good place in advance of this championship and could pull off a surprise somewhere this summer.

Laois – E

The optimism that pervaded Laois hurling in January has long since dissipated and Teddy McCarthy must be wondering what he has signed on for in trying to sort out the dysfunctional midlanders. They hurled well for small patches against Offaly and Wexford and for maybe half the game in Casement Park against Antrim, but they need to do a lot more. Right now they must be dreading their Leinster championship battle with Carlow, and rightly so.

For Longford and Wexford, these season’s league campaign has been a genuine success, regardless of how they fare in Croke Park on Saturday evening. However for the other six counties that took part in NFL division 3, this year was either a little disappointing or else a complete failure. In the third part of our series of mid-term report cards, we look at the eight division three counties and assess their performances so far.

Longford – A

In contrast to some counties that we will speak about later in this column, Longford are the poster children for the stability, patience and the benefits of sticking to a long term plan. The county has punched above it’s weight at minor and under-21 level in recent years and they’ve put their faith in Glen Ryan, who has rewarded them with a gradual improvement in the fortunes of the county. They’ve introduced some good young players into the team this year and it’s incredible to think that a team who so recently was hugely dependent on Brian Kavanagh and the Bardens is still one of the best attacking sides in the league, even after those key players have slipped past their peak. Already there is a groundswell of momentum suggesting that they will beat Laois in the first round of the Leinster championship, though early prices on offer seem to be allowing for this.

Wexford – B

It’s no surprise that Wexford went well in this league. They’ve had very little player turnover in recent years and manager Jason Ryan is continuing to do good work with the raw material at his disposal. The challenge for them this year is to take the next step in the championship and pull off a win against a team like Kildare or Dublin, or one of their equivalents in the qualifiers. There is good depth in the Wexford squad and the vast majority of players have a lot of years of hard physical training behind them – anyone involved in football will say that in terms of core strength and power, Wexford are up there with the best of them – but the time has come to try and produce something more meaningful, because time is running out. They have to deliver this year, and they know it.

Sligo – C

They come to the summer on the back of three wins in succession and but for narrow defeats in games against Antrim and Cavan, they would have secured a quick return to division two. The emergence of Niall Murphy as an inside forward of real potential was the good news story of the league for Kevin Walsh and his team, though they do concede a lot of scores and need to create a lot of their own – unlike a few years ago where Sligo rarely if ever conceded more than a dozen scores in a game. If Roscommon beat Galway, then look for Sligo to ambush the Rossies in the semi final.

Roscommon – D

A D grade might seem harsh, but Roscommon never really delivered a strong performance during this league campaign and they were distinctly second best in their matches against Longford and Wexford – even though the final two point margins suggested a different story. The success of their under-21 footballers is the good news story in the county for now, but Roscommon don’t need more good young players – they need more of their 22-25 year old footballers to step up and become leaders. In a few very notable cases, that’s simply not happening so far. It’s not that they don’t have potential, but the league told us nothing new.

Antrim – C

Great start, woeful finish, mitigated only by their goalscoring spree against Cavan in the final round. There always was and continues to be plenty of talent in Antrim football, but producing consistent performances seems to be beyond them. Monaghan are there to be ambushed in Ulster but even if they do knock out the Farney County, it’s hard to see them producing a second big game against either Down or Fermanagh. The punter who accurately predicts their mood is a shrewd judge.

Cavan – E

Okay, they escaped relegation – but they didn’t deserve to. They dropped points against a woeful Offaly team and then contrived to lose to a second string Antrim side with their division three lives at stake. Under-21 success is all very well but there are senior footballers in this county that need to start producing and now that they’ve disposed of Val Andrews, they have no more excuses for their mediocrity. They will lose to Donegal in the first round of the championship, that much is certain, but Cavan have been disinterested in the qualifiers for too long – they need to produce a run this summer. We wouldn’t like to bet on it happening.

Tipperary – E

After so many things were going well in Tipperary football, out of nowhere they produced this pig of a league campaign. John Evans decision to walk away in mid-season spoke volumes and if Barry Grogan does decide to head for foreign shores this summer, they have no other forward on form. It’s a great pity after so many positive steps, but right now they simply look like makeweights in the championship.

Offaly – F

The Offaly footballers seem to be taking dysfunctional to all new levels after they produced a shocking league campaign, capped off by a miserable effort to save themselves against Tipperary. Even getting every break going, from an uninspired opponent to unlikely help from the Antrim reserves, and still they couldn’t produce scores. Another manager has walked the plank and now Tom Coffey comes on board and while the former Rhode boss will command plenty of respect, too much damage has been done. A humiliation beckons at the hands of Kildare and God knows what after that.

Unlike the top flight, the lower divisions of the National Football League are littered with contests where there is little or nothing at stake for the competing teams this weekend. Plenty of sides have no reason to look either up or down the table, and while that can often lead to betting opportunities, it’s a dangerous game to play. For that reason, we’re going to start with the most competitive game of them all, the Division Two promotion decider at Pearse Stadium.

Galway vs Kildare

Two good golden rules to follow in the betting game are, never trust Galway at odds on against a weaker opponent, but always respect their ability to produce a very high quality game when you least expect it. A one point haul from their games against Louth and Westmeath seemed to condemn them to another mid table finish at best, but good wins over Monaghan and Meath have salvaged their season and suddenly they face a one off game with promotion on the table for the winner.

However for Galway, the timing could not be worse since the Lilies are on an incredible run of form at the moment, scoring 7-69 in their last four games. Since Galway have yet to score nineteen times in a game this year, never mind average nineteen scores over a run of four games, it’s safe to say that a huge defensive performance will be required if the Tribesmen are to prevail on Sunday.

Kildare’s pursuit of Seanie Johnston continues unabated, but honestly it’s hard to see why he’s needed. They’ve found their rhythm now and while we don’t like opposing Galway at odds on, we’ll instead take Kildare to cover an alternative handicap at a big price. Galway might pull off a shock here, but anything less than their best and they could be on the end of a heavy defeat.

Meath vs Louth

Under normal circumstances, these teams would be cursing their luck as relegation rivals Monaghan got the benefit of playing Tyrone when the Red Hand men were already qualified, but Mickey Harte would be very slow to harm the integrity of the competition so chances are that Tyrone will go for the win and get it, so Meath will probably be safe from relegation regardless of how they go in this fixture. Nonetheless this match has the potential to be quite spiky since there is plenty of feeling left over from the famous Leinster final of 2010, and Louth didn’t exactly make a good effort at redeeming their pride in last year’s qualifier fixture.

The Wee County are actually playing quite well at the moment without necessarily getting the results  their football deserves. While their under-21 players were outclassed on Wednesday night, there are one or two individuals in that panel who are ready to make a meaningful contribution at senior level. Meath too have played some reasonable football in recent weeks but Seán Boylan’s resignation from his “Director of Football” role is very worrying. If Louth can get over their traditional hang up when it comes to playing Meath – admittedly that’s a big if – they look like the value here with the head start.

Cavan vs Antrim

It’s been a real season of two halves for Antrim, who started the league in great form but have now lost three games in a row and would surely be worrying about the drop if the season was only a game or two longer. Cavan haven’t exactly pulled up any trees at any level but they have been moderately competitive throughout the year and their under-21 footballers are certainly leading the way in the county.

Antrim manager Liam Bradley made it clear how seriously – or not – he was taking the fixture when he named a team that went very deep into his panel. Some of these youngsters have a point to prove, but Cavan have a season to save, and they should be capable of doing just that, backboned by their under-21s who continue to go from strength to strength.

NFL Lower Division Recommendations

Galway vs Kildare: Kildare -5pts @ 3/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Louth: Louth +2pts @ 11/10 (general)

Cavan vs Antrim: Cavan @ 5/6 (Stan James/Betpack)

Division 1B of the National Hurling League is a little bit more clearcut than 1A, with first place already resolved and the hurlers of Wexford and Laois likely to be much more interested in the relegation match between the two than the meaningless dead rubber taking place in the South East this week. Thus, we’ll leave that game aside from our betting previews, since only Liam Dunne and Teddy McCarthy know what they have planned for the morning of this game – pre match training is very possible here.

Offaly vs Clare

Earlier today we previewed Waterford vs Dublin and came to the conclusion that it makes no sense to be backing a team with nothing to play for. That’s also exactly the situation here. Offaly realistically need a win to reach the division 1B final, though a draw would do if Limerick failed to win in Belfast, while Clare have already booked their place in that playoff fixture. Now no member of the Clare panel or management team would be caught dead saying this, but many hurling people in the Banner county would be happier to meet Offaly in the final having learned something from this game than to have to take on a resurgent Limerick with a bee in their bonnet after the round robin match between the two sides. David Fitzgerald would never think that way, but human nature is a peculiar thing and it’s hard to compete aggressively when you don’t know if you want the prize.

Offaly will be motivated, but they’ve been something of an enigma throughout this league campaign. They’ve played some excellent hurling in patches, but they’ve been very poor at other times and they were very fortunate to come away from Limerick with a draw, even leaving aside Cathal McAllister’s controversial decision to award that penalty at the end. Nonetheless they are at home, they have a powerful forward line that should be capable of winning ball and even money plus one point from Bet365 is very attractive.

Antrim vs Limerick

Suddenly, due to their late comeback against Laois, Antrim have a League final place to play for in front of their home fans and while they’ll need a favour from Clare to get into the 1B decider, they aren’t without hope here. However Limerick are slowly getting back to full strength with Shane Dowling making his return this week and they will be stung by the manner of their draw with Offaly. They need to win by thirteen points more than Offaly do if they don’t get a favour from their neighbours across the Shannon and while that’s probably asking too much, if they step on the gas early, they can give it quite a rattle. Antrim have been good so far this year but they failed to step up to the next level against Offaly or Clare and while they are at home here, they don’t have a good record against Limerick with no wins in their last 16 attempts.

Division 1B Recommendations

Offaly vs Clare: Offaly + 1pt @ evens (Bet365)

Antrim vs Limerick: Limerick to win by 7-9pts @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

Of all the preseason competitions, none is treated more seriously than the McKenna Cup, where games are generally quite competitive and usually played in front of much larger crowds than attend any of the corresponding tournaments in the other provinces. Perhaps it’s something to do with a more meaningful programme of games instead of a knockout structure, or perhaps it’s due to the fact that Ulster counties often look to peak that bit earlier in the season due to their more open provincial championship, but either way some of the most attractive fixtures taking place this weekend are in the Ulster province.

Plenty of attention will be centred around the first competitive game in Fermanagh since Peter Canavan took charge, and the bookmakers are obviously expecting some sort of bounce under the helm of the Errigal Ciarán man since they make Fermanagh the narrow favourites, but the early indications coming from the Erne county suggest that Canavan has a huge task on his hands turning around their fortunes, and that it might be some time before the fruits of that work are visible. Their most recent challenge match result was a ten point loss to a visibly understrength Monaghan team, and after the game, many observers raised questions about the state of fitness of some of the Fermanagh players. No matter how good Canavan turns out to be as a manager, he simply doesn’t have the depth to cast aside players who aren’t quite where they should be fitness wise, and expect a bumpy ride for the month of January as he tries to get his team moving as he would like. Antrim are very much an unknown quantity right now with Liam Bradley bringing in a good few new recruits of his own, but they have picked a very strong half back line and midfield, while Paddy Cunningham, Michael Magill and Conor Murray are proven intercounty standard forwards. They still might have the edge here.

Tyrone play Queens University in the other game in this group and the issue here is how to interpret Mickey Harte’s desire to have all his players available to him at this stage. With so many retirements and a couple of relevant injuries it was always going to be a new look Tyrone team this year, but there have been plenty of promising young footballers coming up through the ranks of the Red Hand county for the past few years and it makes no sense that Harte is so concerned about one or two students who presumably would get plenty of game time in the national football league anyway. The team selected doesn’t look particularly intimidating and it certainly doesn’t justify the 2/7 favouritism afforded them by Paddy Powers. Queens are expected to be a step behind UUJ in the race for the Sigerson Cup this year after several years of less than stellar performances at Freshers level, but even so they will be competitive and should give Tyrone plenty to think about.

Jordanstown face arguably the toughest task of any college team this weekend, taking on Donegal in Letterkenny. Jim McGuinness has come out and said that his Donegal team are in a much better place than they were this time last year, and since they were good enough to beat UUJ in the 2011 renewal of this event, if we could take that assertion at face value we could pile into Donegal. However a training regime involving two sessions every day is likely to take a toll on Donegal and with no real need to win the McKenna Cup, much less target this game, backing Donegal is a dangerous game here. After all, would anyone be really surprised if it emerged after the game that McGuinness had saw fit to put his players through a training session on Sunday morning? Powers and Boyles are both 1/4 Donegal and that price is putting a lot of faith in McGuinness to put his best foot forward in this fixture. We don’t share that faith.

Finally, having put up two outsiders, we’ll finish by recommending the best banker bet of the McKenna Cup coupon – Down to beat Armagh, best priced at 4/6 with Ladbrokes. These two counties have a fierce rivalry going back a long way, but James McCartan has clearly settled on the bones of his best squad and there is a lot of experience available to him for this game. In contrast Armagh manager Paddy O’Rourke is of course without his Crossmaglen players, he’s also without several other frontliners including Rory Grugan, Stephen McDonnell, Kieran McKeever and Kieran Toner. At their best, Armagh would be hard pressed to beat this Down side who have a lot of football under their belts already, and with a shadow team, it’s very hard to be optimistic for the Orchard County.

McKenna Cup Recommendations

Donegal vs UUJ: UUJ @ 10/3 (Powers, Boylesports)

Tyrone vs Queens: Queens @ 3/1 (Powers)

Down vs Armagh: Down @ 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

Following on from our breakdown of the lie of the land for the big ball players out there, it’s now time to turn our hand to their hurling counterparts and to make our projections for 2012. Listed below is the first part of our series incorporating all counties chasing provincial or Liam McCarthy honours. While we would love to extend the courtesy to the Ring/Rackard/Meaghar counties, unfortunately there is simply too much volatility at that level. One or two little things like an increase or decrease in attention from a county board that previously concentrated on football, or a couple of transfers of good club hurlers from other counties, could make a world of difference and while we do our best to pick up on all relevant information here at Starbets.ie, unfortunately every grapevine hides a few morsels of fruit deep within the branches.

The format is the same as was used for the football columns. Counties are ranked in order of how we see them right now, based on results and form, with the current bookmaker rankings in brackets and our prediction for whether they’ll be moving up or down the ladder over the next twelve months.

14. Westmeath (14 – Improvement)

One swallow does not make a summer, and while they had a good day against Carlow in the Leinster championship, they still deserve to be ranked behind the Dolmen county for the moment, as Carlow have been much more consistent in their play for the past few seasons. However the future for Westmeath hurling, in the medium to long term at least, looks bright. The small margin of their defeat to Kilkenny in this year’s Leinster minor hurling semi final was no fluke and neither was their comprehensive win over Offaly in O’Connor Park earlier in that competition. There are some excellent young hurlers coming up along the line in Westmeath and while 2012 might be a little early for a lot of them, the next five years should see the Lake county men improve hugely. We suspect they’ll begin by taking full advantage of their reprieve in the National Hurling league and by making a real push to win division 2A this spring.

13. Carlow (13 – Slight disimprovement)

For all the moaning and wailing from Limerick and Wexford, no county was more damaged by the decision to remake the national hurling league than Carlow. From a position where they were in a good competitive division 2, involving some winnable games and a chance to hurl against some “traditional” counties, they suddenly find themselves right back in with mostly Christy Ring counties. Crucially, they had a chance to avoid this fate but didn’t know it at the time. They made no effort in the last round of the league against Clare when they believed there was nothing at stake, instead resting some key players and blooding younger hurlers. As it turned out, a win in that fixture would have seen them replace Antrim in Division 1b. However having said all that, it’s hard to see where the improvement will come from next year. They’ve regressed at underage level, they still lack dominant players in central positions and while their Leinster championship clash with Laois would have been an ideal draw in 2011, under Teddy McCarthy, Laois should progress well this year.

12. Laois (12 – Improvement)

The decision to bring in one of the most decorated dual stars in the GAA’s history to take charge is a clear sign that Laois hurling intends to make real progress this year. Niall Rigney worked miracles in a difficult environment with the county in recent years, but McCarthy will command even more respect and should be able to get Laois hurling moving in the right direction this year. It’s harsh on Rigney to say that as the Portlaoise clubman is clearly one of the outstanding hurling managers in the game right now, but it’s a simple statement of fact that players will rally around a big name from outside quicker than one of their own. It’s been a long time since Laois people have been able to say with confidence that their best hurlers were all available for selection but they have plenty of glamour league ties to look forward to in Division 1B and a nice draw awaits them in the Leinster championship. Ridiculous though it might sound, Laois will feel they have the beating of Dublin. They don’t, but by shooting for the stars, they’ll still go a long way before they finally fall short.

11. Antrim (11 – Disimprovement)

There is a very real chance that they will have to work without their Loughgiel hurlers for long stretches of the league, and frankly, at any given time Antrim hurling looks capable of imploding. The current standoff with their referees, the debacle that was their attempt at fielding a decent team for the All Ireland semi final against Dublin and the long running bad blood between certain clubs all indicate that there are deep, structural problems in Antrim hurling. Many people in the county celebrated St Galls’ win over Dunloy in the club championship as a sign that hurling was making real progress in Belfast – time may tell that the result said more about Dunloy than it did about Galls. There’s simply no grounds for optimism here.

10. Wexford (10 – no change)

Wexford supporters will look at Offaly, ranked above them, and will ask questions as to why that should be after Wexford deservedly finished above the midlanders in the league. That was even after being asked to play the league game between the two counties in O’Connor Park, when home advantage is traditionally hugely important between these counties. The simple answer is that while they played hard to save their skin in the league, they got the benefit of playing Tipperary when Tipp were in second gear, and when it came to the championship Wexford were hugely disappointing. There are good young hurlers in the county but the sight of Oulart the Ballagh, containing half the county team, playing so poorly against Coolderry in Nowlan Park must have been hugely worrying for Liam Dunne. Indeed Dunne himself failed his tactical exams that day, coming off a distinct second best to Ken Hogan, and with so much work still to be done in the South East, it will be a few years before things get better for them.

9. Offaly (9 – Slight improvement)

As one of the big winners from the league reshuffle, Offaly have been handed a great chance to have a good year in 2012 and with Ollie Baker at the helm, they might just take it. Their one point defeat in Páirc Uí Chaoimh was a huge disappointment and a massive missed opportunity, but it also proved that they have a core group of hurlers capable of troubling the middle tier teams, even if they are still a long way off challenging the big guns. The long term prognosis for the county is very bleak as underage and academy results are appalling, but there is still a strong core group of players there and if David Kenny is finally granted the time to recover properly, they will have a spine capable of competing with anyone. Of course Shane Dooley’s intentions are vital and if he ends up staying in New York he will be almost impossible to replace, but for now they should be looking both to the league and to the Leinster championship with moderate optimism.

8. Cork (5 – Slight disimprovement)

After suggesting that Laois will improve for the recruitment of one famous dual star from Leeside, it seems hypocritical to suggest that the Rebel County themselves won’t benefit for the deployment of an even more famous dual star and former All Ireland winning manager. However 2011 was a terrible year for hurling in Cork and they can thank their lucky stars that they didn’t exit the championship in Páirc Uí Chaoimh against Offaly when a farcical lack of injury time saved them when on the ropes. Against Galway many of their bigger names didn’t appear interested and they just don’t seem to have the leadership they’ll need down the spine of the team. If Cork are good enough to secure a championship win over any of the top four or five counties in 2012, it will mean one of two things – either Jimmy Barry Murphy is a miracle worker, or else every player on the team owes Denis Walsh a huge apology for phoning it in under his leadership. We suspect it won’t be an issue.

Following on from yesterday, let’s continue our pre-Christmas rundown on the state of play of the various counties as they approach the start of the 2012 pre season. As before, the number on the left is their Starbets ranking, the number in brackets is where they are ranked in the betting for Sam Maguire in 2012, followed by our prediction for where they will be ranked this time next year.

25. Sligo (18 – Slight improvement)
It’s been quite the fall from grace for Sligo, who only eighteen months ago had just beaten Galway and Mayo and were odds on favourites to win a Connacht title. They let their chance slip against the Rossies in the Connacht decider, before collapsing against Down in the qualifiers and enduring a terrible season in 2011. Manager Kevin Walsh has some of the best individual defenders in Ireland playing for the Yeats county, while David Kelly is a fine scoring threat, but from 8 to 12 the team is weak and they need to find a lot of improvement this year. Division three should give them a chance to get off to a good start and gain some confidence, but they can ill afford to start slowly and need results sooner rather than later.

24. Cavan (25 – Significant improvement)

2012 is a massive year for Cavan football. The Breffni men have been in the doldrums (as opposed to the drumlins!) for too long now and manager Val Andrews knows that he needs to start turning things around. The success of their under-21 panel last year will provide an invaluable injection of fresh blood into the senior panel and while the poor performance of Cavan Gaels was a disappointment, if they can address issues in the wide defensive positions, they certainly have enough flair up front to cause teams real problems.

23. Tipperary (22 – slight disimprovement)

With new county champions coming from territory that usually doesn’t make a huge contribution to the county team and an All Ireland winning group of minor footballers, the long term prognosis for Tipperary football is very, very bright. However it could be a few years yet before things really start to improve and there is a real danger that too much will be asked of a lot of young footballers before they are ready to deliver. Barry Grogan’s incredible talent will keep them in touch in games but for now, Tipperary should be happy just to hold on to division three status and keep things ticking over for the next couple of years.

22. Louth (20 – Disimprovement)

Not unusually for Louth football, most of their best work was done in the Spring as opposed to the summer in 2011. They enjoyed a good O’Byrne Cup, they got off to a great start in the league but then started to stutter as the ground began to harden, even if they did muster up a big performance in the Division 3 final. However their deterioration continued in the championship and they could be about to learn the same lesson that Mayo did when John O’Mahony was elected to the Dáil – if a manager is working as a TD, he won’t be able to give his county team as much attention as they deserve and results will reflect that.

21. Westmeath (19 – Slight disimprovement)

After deservedly securing promotion in 2011, they may feel hard done by to still be ranked in the bottom half, but it’s hard to ignore two very poor championship performances against mid-ranking opposition. Some very good young footballers have emerged from the Lake County in recent years, even if one of the best of them (John Heslin) is out in Australia, but Denis Glennon has yet to prove that he can carry the team in the same way that Dessie Dolan has done for over a decade now. There is potential for improvement here, but it’s going to be a tough campaign in division 2 and the ominous presence of Dublin in their quarter of the Leinster draw probably limits their capacity, in Leinster at least.

20. Offaly (21 – Slight disimprovement)

They mixed the good with the bad in the league, digging out three crucial away wins while losing out on promotion due to bad performances against Westmeath and Tipperary. This trend continued in the championship with two awful performances and one very impressive one against Monaghan. For 2012, their fate will depend on how their twenty-something footballers grow up in the absence of Ciarán McManus, who played some of his best football last year. The Tubber midfielder was a huge presence in the Offaly dressing room and a new look team is likely to take the field this year – which could be no bad thing, though they will meet more than a few bumps along the road.

19. Antrim (24 – Slight improvement)

The Ulster championship draw has worked out very nicely for Antrim and they’ll rightly believe that they have every chance of making real progress next year. Some of the best young footballers in Ulster should be breaking into their squad very soon and if they can keep a lid on some of the more explosive characters in the dressing room, they have a lot of the ingredients needed to make progress.

18. Longford (23 – Slight disimprovement)

Unquestionably the most improved county in 2011, Glen Ryan has stamped his authority on this team but at the same time allowed the natural, attacking style of the players in the county to flourish. The issue now will be building and sustaining the progress that was made since he took over, a task which should be made easier by the existence of a few very bright young prospects that were part of the Leinster minor winning team in 2010. The old reliable attackers like Brian Kavanagh and the Bardens aren’t getting any younger, but they have some excellent man marking defenders and a lot of good energy around the middle of the field. Their first round battle with Laois in Pearse Park already looks like it could be one of the most enjoyable games in the championship.

Continuing our series of looks at the antepost GAA betting markets for the national football leagues that are now available, next on the list is the minefield that is divison three, a treacherous betting heat where any team is capable of winning and any team is capable of making the drop. One of the key lessons from results in the past few years is that getting stuck into short priced favourites has generally ended in tears. Louth were moderately well fancied last year but generally this league has thrown up more than it’s fair share of upsets, as Limerick can testify. The Treaty county were the 10/3 favourites generally before a ball was thrown in at all, but they got off to a terrible start and now must face into playing division four football in a few weeks.

It’s a mark of the decline in the state of Cavan football that the blue blooded Ulster men are stone last in the betting, despite being handed four home games and operating in a county that cares so little about hurling that they have officially disbanded their senior county team. It’s incredible to think that a county with so many really strong football clubs have fallen to this level, even after putting together some decent results last year after a very bad start. Their management team appears to tick all the boxes as well with a good footballing man in Val Andrews at the helm, John Morrison taking over the physical training side, and Terry Hyland as selector providing local insight. Add in a good crop of young footballers and there are actually plenty of reasons for giving plenty of consideration to the 14/1 on offer from Victor Chandlers and Paddy Powers.

By far Cavan’s toughest tie will be their first round battle with Wexford at Wexford Park, but that’s the perfect time to have your toughest match, when good teams are most vulnerable to an upset. If the Breffni men were to get a win here, their price would plummet, while defeat would be unlikely to cause them to drift any farther than 16/1 or 18/1. At first glance, they look like the value selection of this league.

In comparison, some of the favourites make little or no appeal. Roscommon will be heavily depleted in the early rounds due to the absence of their St Brigids contingent, while their general standing in the country’s footballing pecking order is somewhat overstated at the best of times due to their presence in Connacht, where reaching a provincial final is often a very moderate achievement. If the Brigids players were guaranteed to return after the first two rounds when they play Tipperary and Offaly, then the 7/1 from Powers might be worth a second look. However they aren’t, and it isn’t. Whisper it quietly, but if there was betting on offer on which team would get relegated, we’d be all over anything over 5/2 about the Rossies.

Wexford are probably one of the strongest teams in this division however they’ve been slow starters for a few years now and are unlikely to change their approach this year. Only three home games is a drawback, and the best price of 10/3 from Hills simply isn’t even close to being long enough to justify a bet. They can win, but they’ll have their work cut out to win five games all the same.

Tipperary have some great footballers coming up through their development teams, however that has to be measured against the profile of their starting team from last year, which had plenty of players that are coming towards the end of their careers. The long term future of the county is bright, and the fixture list has been kind in pitching them against Roscommon in week one when the Brigids players will be absent, but they lack the consistency required to be suggested as value.For the moment, their price looks reasonably accurate.

Sligo regressed considerably in 2011 and relegation from division two was followed by championship defeats to Leitrim and Wicklow, casting a pall over the county. Tourlestrane didn’t do anything to change the mood after losing badly to St Brigids in the Connacht championship. Kevin Walsh still has a good core group of players to work with but he faces something of a dilemma this Spring, torn between giving some new players opportunities to learn and develop in the league and sticking with his tried and trusted group who would give him the best possible chance of promotion. Walsh would never admit this publicly, but since division three offers competitive games, Sligo would possibly be happy just to avoid relegation next year. They should just about do that, but you can see why Hills are going after them at 7/1.

Longford, in contrast, have plenty of momentum after winning the Division 4 title and playing very competitively in the championship in the summer. Glen Ryan, not unlike his Sligo counterpart, doesn’t have huge depth to work with, but their schedule is absolutely ideal. Roscommon, Wexford, Offaly and Antrim all have to travel to Pearse Park, while Longford won’t mind making the short trip across to Breffni Park, or down the N4 to Sligo. Indeed even travelling to Tipperary is not really a daunting trip in that while Tipperary are decent opponents, an empty Semple Stadium is hardly a melting pot of an atmosphere. That could change if Tipp’s home games revert to Clonmel, but for now Longford should be looking forward to the start of the league campaign with some optimism.One or two injuries, particularly defensive ones, would be costly, but that’s a risk with any team at this level.

Leinster rivals Offaly are something of an unknown quantity under new manager Gerry Cooney and a new look outfit is likely to take the field for their season opener against Longford in Pearse Park. They’ve shed some senior players and while there is plenty of footballing talent in the county – witness their outstanding qualifier victory over Monaghan last year – there are huge deficits in terms of tight marking full back line players, and real leaders in the spinal positions on the field now that Ciarán McManus has retired. They can’t be ruled out, but betting on them before we get some indication of how they shape up under Cooney’s management in the O’Byrne competitions makes no sense.

Finally we have Antrim, another side playing in division two after dropping down last spring. There are plenty of talented players in the county and if they got everyone pulling in the same direction, 8/1 from Hills would be a very attractive price. Indeed if we knew Antrim were going to play to their potential in the same way that we could depend on Longford for example, we’d be recommending a substantial bet right now – sadly we can’t be sure of anything of the sort. Watch their performances in the McKenna Cup carefully, and if they go well, then they might be worth a second look.

The football qualifiers continue to come think and fast, with the eight counties in action this weekend beginning to realise that there could very soon be some light at the end of the tunnel. Already half the participating teams have departed the race for the Sam Maguire Cup, and one more victory will leave any of those remaining, who recently felt like their dreams were dashed, tantalisingly close to Croke Park. For some, it’s still hard to imagine them playing in the last eight of the All Ireland championship, but for others, it’s hard to see them denied.

Down vs Antrim

For long spells of last weekend’s match in Newry, Down struggled to gain real supremacy over Leitrim and they even looked like they could have been in danger of losing the match at times. That they still won by eight points is an indication of the class that there is in the red and black jerseys, while in Casement Park Antrim were extremely fortunate to come through against Carlow – or indeed Carlow were extremely unfortunate, from the point of view of this column, which recommended them at 5/1.

The local derby element will come into play to a certain extent, but even allowing for this, Antrim look overmatched here. Liam Bradley is unlikely to start without Paddy Cunningham this week but even if Cunningham plays and plays well, there simply aren’t enough free scorers in that Antrim forward line. Down should relish the big pitch in Casement Park and after two warnings now, they should be on their toes. 10/11 about Down minus four is a decent bet, but Ladbrokes are also offering 7/4 about Down to score over 1.5 goals. In ten league and championship games this year, only Meath have failed to find the net against the Saffrons and with Down’s attacking talent, raising two green flags is a very realistic prospect.

Wicklow vs Armagh

Hands up time here – this column definitely did not see that coming. Wicklow (and indeed the bookmakers, who would have cheered the demise of countless multiple bets) were blessed that Seán Furlong’s normal time goal was allowed after a questionable amount of steps, while his extra time strike also came after dubious handpass, but even so Armagh will be very worried at the way that Leighton Glynn’s movement and energy really unsettled their full back line, and also how James Stafford and Rory Finn lorded matters at midfield. Their return to Aughrim is a huge boost for Wicklow, but the value of that ground can sometimes be overstated. A field of grass is simply a field of grass and while Aughrim is not the most easily accessible village in Ireland, their venue remains a good open pitch where footballers should thrive.

Given that Armagh have been forewarned now and that Paddy O’Rourke is likely to do a lot better tactically this week, we’ll take the risk of compounding our error by suggesting Armagh minus two points as the best bet.

Limerick vs Waterford

Limerick fully deserved their win over Offaly in the Gaelic Grounds, but as we warned in this column, if Offaly got dragged into a battle, they were always going to come off second best. They needed to get in front and to force Limerick to come out and chase the game, a strategy that went out the window when Ian Ryan and Seamus O’Carroll struck for early goals.

Limerick’s lack of fielding ability will come back to haunt them some other time, but they might still have enough to get through Waterford. However scorelines of 1-17 and 3-13 are very out of character for these teams and bearing in mind how well both sides know each other after playing each other competitively four times in the last 18 months, not to mention a challenge match a fortnight ago, and a low scoring tie could be in prospect. Take under 30.5 points at even money.

Kildare vs Meath

Kildare’s ridiculously good record in the qualifiers continued last week with a crushing victory over Laois, while Meath proved once again that having big names in your forward line is no guarantee of getting plenty of scores. They limped over the line against Galway and their inability to kick points continues to hold them back.

These two sides are operating on completely different levels right now and there is simply no reason why Páirc Tailteann, tradition, or any other factor will compensate for that. Kildare’s very game is built on intensity and they do not know any other way to play – they can win this game and win it well. 1/2 about Kildare on the match betting market is a great odds on bet, but those looking for a big price should take Kildare to win by 7-9 pts at 6/1, and possibly even the 12/1 about a 10-12pt win.

Limerick vs Offaly

The reasons to go against Limerick are plentiful, and certainly if Offaly come close to replicating their performance against Monaghan, they should come through this fixture with relative ease. Losing heavily to Kerry wouldn’t be something that a lot of counties would lose sleep over, however in 2010 Limerick came desperately close to beating Kerry in a Munster Final and to have lost so much ground to them in the space of twelve months must be hugely disconcerting. Injuries to Jim O’Donovan, Eoin Joy and John Galvin rob them of a lot of presence around the midfield sector, not to mention the inspirational leadership that Galvin brings to any game.

However there is also plenty of cause to hold fire here – Offaly’s performance in O’Connor Park against Monaghan was hewn out of a fierce desire to prove a point after letting themselves down so badly against Wexford. Their need to set the record straight in front of their home supporters (and three times as many Monaghan supporters) was palpable and it’s far from certain that they’ll have the same passion for performance now that they are no longer the subject of criticism on the national airwaves. On the grounds that if they play well, they can win well, but without wanting to risk too much capital on the psychology involved, we’ll take 8/1 from Ladbrokes about Offaly winning by 7-9pts inclusive.

Antrim vs Carlow

Antrim are marginally the better team, they have home advantage, and they have some momentum after winning their most recent game – all advantages in their favour. However while these advantages are useful, they do not explain odds of 1/7 Antrim and 11/2 Carlow. Carlow’s win over Louth was a huge milestone for the county and having got a taste for success and now been handed a winnable tie in the qualifiers, it would be a huge shock if Carlow lay down easily in Belfast. Luke Dempsey’s grievances over the throw in time are understandable but still it’s hardly the huge obstacle that he suggests, while he’s also well versed in plotting through the qualifiers from his time with Westmeath and Longford.

Antrim are a very solid team but they don’t score much, and much like a boxer without a knockout punch, they always give a weaker opponent a chance. Seán Gannon is a big loss, but there are scores in Willie Minchin, his replacement, while Cormac Mullins is there to come on at any stage. Purely on price, 11/2 is worth a shout.

London vs Waterford

Perhaps this columnist is just suffering from a touch of the Doubting Thomas syndrome, but the idea that London are suddenly a force to be reckoned with in the qualifiers defies logic. Their win over Fermanagh was great for the GAA community in London and it was the least that a lot of devoted Gaels over there deserved, but Fermanagh were absolutely in tatters going over there so people suggesting things like London suddenly having the potential to go all the way to the quarter finals are getting hugely carried away.

The problem for punters this week is that the signs are that Waterford might not be in great shape either. Last week they were torn asunder by Limerick in a challenge match and so they too could be vulnerable. Waterford at full speed and with everybody tuned in would win this by six or seven points, regardless of how much London have improved. However without knowing for sure what state the Déise men are in, this is no bet country.

Down vs Leitrim

Clearly all is not well in the Leitrim camp. Wayne McKeon, their man of the match against Sligo, has left the squad due to disciplinary reasons, while the absence of Conor and Tomás Beirne from the match day panel is another baffling surprise. Leitrim football simply doesn’t have the depth to replace guys of this calibre and it must surely be devastating for players who have put their heart and soul into playing well for Leitrim to see things fall apart like this.

Down got their scare against Clare, and last year, after Down got scared by Offaly, they turned around and devoured Sligo in the next match. Leitrim look like they are in the wrong place at the wrong time, and even though Ladbrokes’ handicap of minus ten points looks high, we’re still going to recommend the 10/11 about Down covering that line.

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