The GAA may get a lot of things wrong, but they have mastered the art of starting the National Football League with a bang in recent years and tomorrow night’s double header featuring Kildare vs Tyrone and Dublin vs Kerry is a genuinely mouthwatering attraction, one that should attract a substantial crowd for what will be an incredible night of entertainment. We’ll have a look at Kildare vs Tyrone later today, but for now, let’s have a look at the All Ireland final rematch to kick off our previewing for the week.

Dublin vs Kerry

Last year’s All Ireland final was not unlike an episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer for Dublin supporters, since so many demons were killed over the course of the match. They beat Kerry in an All Ireland final, they delivered a fantastic comeback when it looked like they were dead and buried and thus proved their mental fortitude, and above all they bridged the 16 year gap and ensured that the Sam Maguire Cup spent the winter in the nation’s capital city. Their priority for 2012 will of course be to retain that title and while any victory over Kerry is a good day’s work, much like the O’Byrne Cup semi final two weeks ago, this is a game that Dublin would like to win, but yet they have no real need of doing so. Bernard Brogan, Alan Brogan and Paul Flynn are among the significant absentees from the forward line, but Mossy Quinn has been in good form so far this year while Diarmuid Connolly is capable of scoring well, so that’s not really our concern.

Traditionally opposing Kerry in the first round of the league is a good policy to keep. They’ve often come out of the blocks slowly and usually bounce back in week two. That said, it’s never good to underestimate the intensity that a Kerryman can bring to a game if he feels in any way slighted. Last year was supposed to be Colm Cooper’s year to lift the Sam Maguire and while Dublin probably deserved their narrow win in the final, Kerry can certainly feel a little aggrieved with a few marginal decisions that went against them, none more so than the free that was awarded and converted by Stephen Cluxton to win the game. Dublin are a long way off full fitness yet and even without the Dr Crokes players, Kerry look like the more motivated side here.

Down vs Donegal

Last year Donegal hit the ground running, this year so far they’ve been very flat and the general consensus appears to be that a home win is the most likely outcome here. This column is not so sure about that. Derry shut down the highly rated Down attack in the McKenna Cup semi-final and thoughDonegal are missing a few very important players for this game – in the absence of Colm McFadden, Michael Murphy and Mark McHugh, one wonders where their scores will come from – this is a game where both managers will be drawing heavily on their reserves. In that context, the team with the best system, where panel players can slot in and do a job, may have the advantage and that suggests Donegal can be competitive in what could be one of the lowest scoring matches of the weekend. The match odds seem correct, so we’ll side with a shutout here.

Laois vs Mayo

Laois outdid themselves to secure promotion to division one last year, but one wonders if it will seem like a pyrrhic victory after a tough campaign in the top flight this Spring. Games away to Donegal, Kerry and Cork look like lost causes before the start, so they will have to look at taking at least five if not six points from their four home fixtures to have any chance of staying up. Mayo have been moving well so far this Spring and even though Laois tend to go well under lights at O’Moore Park, we suspect an arduous league campaign starts tomorrow night for Justin McNulty’s men.

Armagh vs Cork

Ladbrokes posted up 1/2 about a Cork win earlier this week and they were quickly brought back into line by the weight of money, while even the 2/5 that was generally available is starting to move now, as the punters line up to take on a home side shorn of their Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Armagh have sometimes surprised us in the past with strong performances at home, but two debutant corner forwards either side of a full forward who is more known for his workrate than his finishing does not suggest that they will score freely this weekend. Now look at the Cork team – arguably stronger than the side that lined out in their last championship match, due to players returning from injury. Taking a global view, it seems wrong not to recommend a single home team to win in a full round of games, but despite an inspecific sense of uneasiness about doing so, logic forces us to back Cork to cover the spread here.

Division One Recommendations

Dublin vs Kerry: Kerry @ 11/10 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Down vs Donegal: No Goalscorer @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)

Laois vs Mayo: Mayo -3pts @ 23/10 (Powers – alternative handicap)

Armagh vs Cork: Cork -3pts @ 11/10 (William Hill)

Perhaps the highest profile football fixture that took place last weekend was Down’s meeting with Armagh in the McKenna Cup, probably the only all-division one battle that will take place in preseason competition in 2012. What looked like a renewal of a fiercely contested local derby when it was first drawn up turned into something of a canter for Down however, as Armagh struggled to compensate for the absence of their Crossmaglen players and several other key individuals. James McCartan’s selection looked very fresh when first announced, but he had a lot of strength on the bench to call upon if required, and the value of that was clear to see when he was able to get meaningful contributions from Conor Laverty, Aidan Brannigan and of course Benny Coulter.

The question that now has to be asked, since most observers and journalists present in Newry agreed that the eight point margin was a fair reflection, is how good were Down? Alternatively, how bad were Armagh?

To put it another way – Monaghan had an eight point win over St Mary’s College, who were expected to struggle without some key players like Tyrone’s Peter Harte, but their substantial winning margin was largely the result of some very poor shooting from the teaching college students and most observers in Clones felt that a five or six point margin would have been fairer, albeit in a match that never really caught fire. So in theory at least, the gap between Down and Monaghan should be the same if not bigger than the gap between Armagh and St Mary’s – yet Armagh are  as short as 1/4 in places for their match, while Monaghan are not to be had at any price bigger than the 2/1 on offer from William Hill. It’s not unreasonable to infer that either the potential of an upset in the Morgan Atheltic Grounds is being understated, or else Down should be stronger favourites against Monaghan.

The wild card in this line of thinking however is the concern about which teams will improve most from last Sunday to next – and of course the answer here should be the county teams. The college sides have played a league campaign as a coherent panel and are a lot further in their development, while the county sides have theoretically at least, not been playing collectively for several months. Having had their first session together, they should improve immensely for that exercise, all the more when trying to integrate new players with more experienced footballers. Nonetheless the very real prospect of greatly altered teams mitigates this somewhat.

While there is a lot to like about Down, best priced at 8/13 with Boylesports – certainly we’d prefer to be backing that than taking the 2/1 about Monaghan – our gut feeling here is that Armagh really struggled to compensate for the absence of their key players and that they could be very vulnerable favourites this week. St Mary’s haven’t shown any signs over the winter of improving significantly on their performances in recent years, but they’ve still won one game out of three in this competition in each of the last three seasons. With Down currently flying, they’ll almost certainly have to beat Armagh to keep that record up for a fourth successive year and while the county men should still hold an edge, Hills, Powers and Boylesports are all 10/3 about an upset win and that price is just about big enough to justify a small interest.

McKenna Cup Round 2 Recommendation

Armagh vs St Marys: St Mary’s to win at 10/3 (Boylesports, Hills, Powers)

Of all the preseason competitions, none is treated more seriously than the McKenna Cup, where games are generally quite competitive and usually played in front of much larger crowds than attend any of the corresponding tournaments in the other provinces. Perhaps it’s something to do with a more meaningful programme of games instead of a knockout structure, or perhaps it’s due to the fact that Ulster counties often look to peak that bit earlier in the season due to their more open provincial championship, but either way some of the most attractive fixtures taking place this weekend are in the Ulster province.

Plenty of attention will be centred around the first competitive game in Fermanagh since Peter Canavan took charge, and the bookmakers are obviously expecting some sort of bounce under the helm of the Errigal Ciarán man since they make Fermanagh the narrow favourites, but the early indications coming from the Erne county suggest that Canavan has a huge task on his hands turning around their fortunes, and that it might be some time before the fruits of that work are visible. Their most recent challenge match result was a ten point loss to a visibly understrength Monaghan team, and after the game, many observers raised questions about the state of fitness of some of the Fermanagh players. No matter how good Canavan turns out to be as a manager, he simply doesn’t have the depth to cast aside players who aren’t quite where they should be fitness wise, and expect a bumpy ride for the month of January as he tries to get his team moving as he would like. Antrim are very much an unknown quantity right now with Liam Bradley bringing in a good few new recruits of his own, but they have picked a very strong half back line and midfield, while Paddy Cunningham, Michael Magill and Conor Murray are proven intercounty standard forwards. They still might have the edge here.

Tyrone play Queens University in the other game in this group and the issue here is how to interpret Mickey Harte’s desire to have all his players available to him at this stage. With so many retirements and a couple of relevant injuries it was always going to be a new look Tyrone team this year, but there have been plenty of promising young footballers coming up through the ranks of the Red Hand county for the past few years and it makes no sense that Harte is so concerned about one or two students who presumably would get plenty of game time in the national football league anyway. The team selected doesn’t look particularly intimidating and it certainly doesn’t justify the 2/7 favouritism afforded them by Paddy Powers. Queens are expected to be a step behind UUJ in the race for the Sigerson Cup this year after several years of less than stellar performances at Freshers level, but even so they will be competitive and should give Tyrone plenty to think about.

Jordanstown face arguably the toughest task of any college team this weekend, taking on Donegal in Letterkenny. Jim McGuinness has come out and said that his Donegal team are in a much better place than they were this time last year, and since they were good enough to beat UUJ in the 2011 renewal of this event, if we could take that assertion at face value we could pile into Donegal. However a training regime involving two sessions every day is likely to take a toll on Donegal and with no real need to win the McKenna Cup, much less target this game, backing Donegal is a dangerous game here. After all, would anyone be really surprised if it emerged after the game that McGuinness had saw fit to put his players through a training session on Sunday morning? Powers and Boyles are both 1/4 Donegal and that price is putting a lot of faith in McGuinness to put his best foot forward in this fixture. We don’t share that faith.

Finally, having put up two outsiders, we’ll finish by recommending the best banker bet of the McKenna Cup coupon – Down to beat Armagh, best priced at 4/6 with Ladbrokes. These two counties have a fierce rivalry going back a long way, but James McCartan has clearly settled on the bones of his best squad and there is a lot of experience available to him for this game. In contrast Armagh manager Paddy O’Rourke is of course without his Crossmaglen players, he’s also without several other frontliners including Rory Grugan, Stephen McDonnell, Kieran McKeever and Kieran Toner. At their best, Armagh would be hard pressed to beat this Down side who have a lot of football under their belts already, and with a shadow team, it’s very hard to be optimistic for the Orchard County.

McKenna Cup Recommendations

Donegal vs UUJ: UUJ @ 10/3 (Powers, Boylesports)

Tyrone vs Queens: Queens @ 3/1 (Powers)

Down vs Armagh: Down @ 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

Continuing now with the third part in the series, detailing those counties that will be hoping to make a real breakthrough into the top tier in 2012…..

17. Roscommon (16 – Disimprovement)

Few counties better illustrate the inequity of the current provincial structure than Roscommon, who have reached the last twelve of the All Ireland race for each of the last two seasons despite failing to beat any top twenty county in league or championship along the way. That there is talent in the county cannot be questioned and that’s the only reason why they aren’t ranked even lower, but a few cracks are starting to appear that suggest that some of their brightest hopes from the 2006 minor team simply aren’t progressing as well as many supporters would have hoped. Players like Peter Domican, Senan Kilbride and Cathal Cregg would be welcome into any county team in Ireland, but there will be no handy run to the Connacht final this year and as a result it would be a huge surprise to this column if they were still playing football in August.

16. Limerick (17 – slight disimprovement)

A little bit more luck in the early part of the league would have gone a long way and by the time they found their rhythm in the summer, even without talismanic midfielder John Galvin, they looked like a dangerous force in the qualifiers. The draw was extremely kind to them and not many teams would get to reach an All Ireland quarter final beating only division three sides, but it’s hard to be too critical of a team that only lost to Kerry in the championship. If they can continue to create space for what is a very potent forward line they’ll do well, but their league match against Fermanagh will be particularly revealing as no side under Canavan is likely to allow a lot of space to their direct opponents. Expect Fermanagh to write the script for how to neutralise Limerick in 2012.

15. Laois (15 – no change)

Based on league form, Laois deserve to be ranked much higher than this, but in the championship they’ve made little or no impression for some years now. Manager Justin McNulty looked like he was achieving some good things in the county but the poor state of their domestic championship is a concern and many of their younger prospects aren’t progressing as well as they should. They will almost certainly get relegated from division one but if they can learn from playing at that standard, they might just have enough to come through a treacherous first round championship tie against Longford.

14. Meath (11 – Slight disimprovement)

The wisdom in picking a non-Meath manager to take charge of the Royal County for the first time is being questioned at the moment with Seamus McEnaney yet to win over the footballing public in Meath. Up front the county has no problems with a string of capable attacking players but the absence of Nigel Crawford will be keenly felt this year while all across the midfield and half back line there are concerns. Their reputation is masking quite how many problems there are in Meath football at the moment.

13. Monaghan (13 – disimprovement)

Their shocking qualifier performance in Tullamore last year was either the portent of the start of a long term decline or else one bad day, an anomaly to be ignored. Sadly for Monaghan supporters, this column suspects it could be the former. The Farney men have been one of the most competitive and consistent counties in terms of punching above their weight in the last few years but a lot of that was down to Tommy Freeman’s incisive play up front and while Conor McManus has stepped up to a certain degree, some very average footballers have seen significant playing time under Seamus McEneaney. Their attitude to the game means that they won’t slip too far but if we were to predict one championship upset now, Antrim vs Monaghan in Clones in the first round of the Ulster championship would be our first choice.

12. Wexford (14 – Slight improvement)

After a couple of years of stagnation, Wexford finally found their rhythm in 2011 and were very unlucky both in terms of missing out on promotion and in losing out to Limerick in the fourth round of the qualifiers. Indeed Kerry were probably delighted to see Limerick trip up Wexford because the Slaneysiders could have created a much more interesting All Ireland quarter final if they had advanced to meet the Kingdom. They have an experienced squad that physically are a lot more powerful than they’ve been given credit for and by far they look like the most realistic contender for a Leinster title outside of the big two.

11. Galway (10 – improvement)

If you were to design a scenario where a county should be poised to make huge gains in 2012, you’d struggle to create anything more ideal than the situation out west. You have a very strong club championship, a highly talented bunch of young footballers waiting in the wings, a local manager who has earned respect with his achievements and a group of senior players that must be eager to start accumulating the medals that their talent warrants. The problem is that many of these conditions have been in place previously. Time will tell if Alan Mulholland can unlock the world of potential that lies in Galway football, but if he can’t manage it, there’s little hope for anyone.

10. Armagh (12 – No change)

The depth in Armagh football is not as much of a strength as many outside the county believe, but they have some fine individual talents and players like Aaron Kernan are incredibly good role models for the younger players that are coming in. One or two injuries tend to hit the county very hard but they are not as far off the pace as all that. If Jamie Clarke starts replicating his club form in the Ulster Championship, they could be real dark horses to take provincial honours.

9. Derry (9 – Slight improvement)

Last year was a glorious chance for an Ulster title that went astray and one wonders quite how many such chances will come their way. If we were projecting well into the future we’d struggle to be optimistic for the Derry men but in the short term, 2012 has to be a big year for the county. Injury permitting both Paddy and Eoghan Bradley will be available to manager John Brennan and if he can get the two Glenullin brothers working well within the framework of the team, he’ll have a unit capable of a lot of success.

Twas the month before Christmas, and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even in the O’Byrne Cup.

The county players currently training frantically and preparing for the 2012 season might beg to differ on the concept of the “winter break”, but for the GAA public, the only action to be found during the month of December is at your local club AGM, where treasurers give out about physios, hurlers give out about football, managers complain about lack of commitment and political coups are executed to varying degrees of success. It might be the kind of drama that members of soccer and rugby clubs can only dream of, but it’s still of little use to the betting public, since not even the most foolhardy bookmaker would like to start betting on who will be installed as the new PRO of Ballygobackwards hurling club, much less whether or not they’ll pass that motion suggesting a change in the structure of the under-14 championship.

However those betting firms out there are very conscious of the fact that if they don’t offer us something, all our money would instead get wasted on folly like Christmas presents or brussels sprouts, so rather than allow such a ridiculous scenario to come about, they’ve suddenly burst out of the blocks with betting for next year’s national football leagues.

It’s very early in the game to make any strong recommendations, however now is a good time to share our early thoughts, perhaps picking off some long shots that may dip in price before a ball is ever thrown in. Looking first at division one of the National Football League, and it’s safe to say that most punters will stay with the big three of Cork, Kerry and Dublin, with Kerry perhaps likely to prove the least popular selection of these three. Colm Cooper will miss at least the first two rounds of the competition against Dublin and Armagh due to his involvement with Dr Crokes, as will several other of the Killarney based players, which will be a stumbling block for a lot of potential backers, however Kerry are well used to losing the first round of the league, while Armagh will certainly be a lot more depleted for their round two meeting due to the absence of the Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Kerry’s reputation as non-triers in the league might seem justified in the light of their comparitively stronger record in championship football, however the 3/1 on offer from William Hill and Boylesports could yet be a decent price. After all, anyone backing the Kingdom at that price for each National League campaign during the last decade would still be showing a profit now after outright wins in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

The fixture list could have been more kind to Jack O’Connor and his panel as it will send Kerry to both Croke Park and Páirc Uí Chaoimh in the spring, however there are Kerry footballers who have played more county games in Croke Park than in Tralee, while the Leeside venue is hardly unfamiliar territory either.

Of the outsiders in this division, Donegal at 10/1 with Boylesports looks the most intriguing. The Kevin Cassidy saga could be a distraction, but Jim McGuinness’ strongest attribute is his ability to handle the mental side of management and he will undoubtedly find some way to turn a crisis into an opportunity, even if it does look to this outsider like a largely self made crisis. Getting four home games is very important to a remote county like Donegal and their week three battle with Cork at home will be their most significant fixture. They have a great chance of starting off with two wins and could very easily be top of the table if they can cash in on Cork’s huge round trip. While they’d have preferred to play Armagh early in the year when the Crossmaglen players wouldn’t be available, otherwise they can have few complaints about the schedule.

James Horan has made it clear in his first season in charge that he will, rightly, use the league for experimentation and with a good championship behind him, he’s under no pressure to get results next spring. They certainly won’t come easily to Mayo with a very real possibility that they will be underdogs in six out of seven matches. For the moment, we can safely draw a line through them in terms of potential winners, as we can through Armagh who will miss the Crossmaglen players for several rounds. Indeed we could possibly dismiss Down, who have concerns over key central positions and will also miss out on the influence of Martin Clarke, but they still might have an outsider’s chance if they avoid shipping too much punishment in the early rounds.

Other than the 10/1 about Donegal from Boylesports, there’s no price that we would say with 80% confidence will be shorter by the start of the season, so we won’t recommend diverting too much of the Christmas money just yet. But don’t go throwing it all in the collection plate at midnight mass – the New Year isn’t that far away.

The four senior games may be capturing the national attention and the vast majority of the GAA column inches this week, but with three long odds on favourites and Kildare also expected to win (by this column at least!) punters searching for a closely contested tie will have to look instead to the minor ranks and the four upcoming All Ireland quarter finals.

The headline fixture is the meeting of Dublin and Cork in O’Moore Park on Monday, and it’s fair to say that all previews of this game will focus on the same thing – that this Dublin team are flying under Dessie Farrell, and that they should win well.

They may do, but if Cork have Conor Dorman back to fill their full back berth, the young Rebels will be a much better team than the side that lost so tamely to Tipperary in the Munster final. Cork spent far too much time in that Munster decider chopping and changing their alignment in their back line and against a competent team like Tipperary, that was unforgivable. Dorman faces a huge task taking on the wonderfully talented Ciarán Kilkenny, however if he can curtail the young dual star, Cork will have gone a long way towards securing a win here.

Dublin are probably the best team left in this championship, but people forget that these are teenagers, who are invariably prone to bad days. 4/11 is too short to consider a bet on the Dubs against a Cork side that are capable of an upset.

The other Leinster vs Munster clash sees Tipperary taking on Meath and after putting both Cork and Kerry to the sword, despite trailing Kerry by ten points early in the game, this Tipperary team have more than proved their worth. Meath limped through to a Leinster Final largely due to landing on what was by far the easier side of the draw within their province, and they look to be comfortably the weakest side still in the competition. They should have no answer to TJ Ryan, who is one of the most promising talents in the entire competition, and if Ladbrokes release a handicap by Monday, it would be well worth backing Tipperary to cover.

The meeting of Cavan and Galway is one of the trickiest games to call, simply because Galway underachieved so spectacularly in the Connacht final. Word out west is that this team is very fast and fluid and they were simply unable to get going in the miserable conditions that prevailed on Connacht Final day, however the absence of any notable scalps so far this year is a worry. Some wonderful footballers from St Jarlaths have a lot to offer the teenage Tribesmen, but Cavan probably should be slight favourites based on a great performance in the Ulster final and a wonderful result against a hotly fancied Tyrone team in the Ulster semi-final.

The best value bet of the week looks to be Roscommon minors, 8/11 to overcome Armagh in Croke Park on Saturday afternoon. Ross Shannon has moulded a wonderful group of footballers in Roscommon this year and more than a few pundits within the county feel that this group is at least as good as the All Ireland winning team of 2006.

They’ve got plenty of size and power, but they still play a fast and effective style of football that should prosper in the open spaces of Croke Park. This Roscommon team have actually played in Croke Park already this year and that experience will stand to them, however more than any other factor, it’s simply hard to ascertain why Armagh are so highly rated. They accounted for Down in the Ulster semi-final and since big things were expected of Down this year, that result saw them rocket up the betting – however they failed to score for the entire second half of the Ulster Final and don’t look potent up front.

Roscommon just look to be a good cut above and at 8/11, they represent the best value bet of the eight teams playing this weekend.

The football qualifiers continue to come think and fast, with the eight counties in action this weekend beginning to realise that there could very soon be some light at the end of the tunnel. Already half the participating teams have departed the race for the Sam Maguire Cup, and one more victory will leave any of those remaining, who recently felt like their dreams were dashed, tantalisingly close to Croke Park. For some, it’s still hard to imagine them playing in the last eight of the All Ireland championship, but for others, it’s hard to see them denied.

Down vs Antrim

For long spells of last weekend’s match in Newry, Down struggled to gain real supremacy over Leitrim and they even looked like they could have been in danger of losing the match at times. That they still won by eight points is an indication of the class that there is in the red and black jerseys, while in Casement Park Antrim were extremely fortunate to come through against Carlow – or indeed Carlow were extremely unfortunate, from the point of view of this column, which recommended them at 5/1.

The local derby element will come into play to a certain extent, but even allowing for this, Antrim look overmatched here. Liam Bradley is unlikely to start without Paddy Cunningham this week but even if Cunningham plays and plays well, there simply aren’t enough free scorers in that Antrim forward line. Down should relish the big pitch in Casement Park and after two warnings now, they should be on their toes. 10/11 about Down minus four is a decent bet, but Ladbrokes are also offering 7/4 about Down to score over 1.5 goals. In ten league and championship games this year, only Meath have failed to find the net against the Saffrons and with Down’s attacking talent, raising two green flags is a very realistic prospect.

Wicklow vs Armagh

Hands up time here – this column definitely did not see that coming. Wicklow (and indeed the bookmakers, who would have cheered the demise of countless multiple bets) were blessed that Seán Furlong’s normal time goal was allowed after a questionable amount of steps, while his extra time strike also came after dubious handpass, but even so Armagh will be very worried at the way that Leighton Glynn’s movement and energy really unsettled their full back line, and also how James Stafford and Rory Finn lorded matters at midfield. Their return to Aughrim is a huge boost for Wicklow, but the value of that ground can sometimes be overstated. A field of grass is simply a field of grass and while Aughrim is not the most easily accessible village in Ireland, their venue remains a good open pitch where footballers should thrive.

Given that Armagh have been forewarned now and that Paddy O’Rourke is likely to do a lot better tactically this week, we’ll take the risk of compounding our error by suggesting Armagh minus two points as the best bet.

Limerick vs Waterford

Limerick fully deserved their win over Offaly in the Gaelic Grounds, but as we warned in this column, if Offaly got dragged into a battle, they were always going to come off second best. They needed to get in front and to force Limerick to come out and chase the game, a strategy that went out the window when Ian Ryan and Seamus O’Carroll struck for early goals.

Limerick’s lack of fielding ability will come back to haunt them some other time, but they might still have enough to get through Waterford. However scorelines of 1-17 and 3-13 are very out of character for these teams and bearing in mind how well both sides know each other after playing each other competitively four times in the last 18 months, not to mention a challenge match a fortnight ago, and a low scoring tie could be in prospect. Take under 30.5 points at even money.

Kildare vs Meath

Kildare’s ridiculously good record in the qualifiers continued last week with a crushing victory over Laois, while Meath proved once again that having big names in your forward line is no guarantee of getting plenty of scores. They limped over the line against Galway and their inability to kick points continues to hold them back.

These two sides are operating on completely different levels right now and there is simply no reason why Páirc Tailteann, tradition, or any other factor will compensate for that. Kildare’s very game is built on intensity and they do not know any other way to play – they can win this game and win it well. 1/2 about Kildare on the match betting market is a great odds on bet, but those looking for a big price should take Kildare to win by 7-9 pts at 6/1, and possibly even the 12/1 about a 10-12pt win.

Longford vs Tyrone

Longford might not be a big name in terms of the race for the All Ireland senior football championship, but rest assured Tyrone did not want this fixture at all and a one point win would be readily seized by any Tyrone supporter if it was offered to them right now.

Of course Tyrone have the better players and many people felt that they were the better team in their Ulster semi-final against Donegal. However this time last year they faced an Ulster semi-final against Down, and the contrast between the two games is stark. Against Down, Tyrone got off to a bad start but slowly and inexorably took control of the fixture, suffocating the life out of their opponents. Against Donegal they were the beneficiaries of the good start and with Donegal unable to play free flowing attacking football simply by nature of the way they were lined out, they should have had enough about themselves to close out a three or four point win. Instead they got drawn into a dogfight and came off second best against the younger, hungrier dog.

Now they face a trip to Pearse Park, with Longford in flying form after a big win over their Cavan neighbours, and the whole squad moving freely under Glen Ryan. Seán McCormack has provided a nice alternative threat to Brian Kavanagh in the Longford full forward line, their defence is incredibly tenacious and hugely under-rated, and at home they will fear no-one.

Tyrone still have plenty of know-how and should find a way to win, but they don’t look to have the firepower to blow Longford away. Ladbrokes are standing out in the marketplace with 11/10 about Longford plus four and if they’ve made the effort to draw in money, it seems rude not to respond with a moderate bet.

Armagh vs Wicklow

The national consensus on this fixture is that if it were played in Aughrim, Wicklow would have a real chance. They wouldn’t. Armagh got blindsided by a wonderful Derry performance in the Ulster semi-final but it doesn’t suddenly make them a bad team, while the most significant aspect to Wicklow’s home win over Sligo was the fact that Mick O’Dwyer actually used some substitutes. He can field whoever he likes here, Armagh are operating on a different level and Wicklow’s old style football using Seánie Furlong as a target man will get them nowhere in Armagh. Money buyers could take Armagh/Armagh double result at 1/3, while another option could be 7/4 about Armagh scoring more than 1.5 goals.

Laois vs Kildare

This fixture will undoubtedly be a huge test for the character of this Kildare team as nobody could condemn them for feeling hard done by after their last outing in Croke Park. It would be easy to suggest that the last thing they needed now was a local derby against a resurgent Laois team who would be only too delighted to crush their dreams for the year, however this Kildare team is fuelled by passion, commitment and a ridiculous level of energy and drive. This fixture is actually perfect for them. When the bright lights of Croke Park seems far away, there’s nothing like the pleasure of putting one over on your near neighbours to concentrate the mind and get you through a round of the qualifers and get you a step closer to relevance.

In every championship match they’ve played this year and last, the correct betting play has been waiting until half time and then backing Kildare in running on whatever handicap or match market is available. This could be the game where Kildare finally start the match well. This will be a very well attended game in front of the TV cameras, and with the Mullaghbawn dimension to really spice things up. Kildare/Kildare double result is our recommendation, while this could also be a good time to dabble in Ladbrokes’ “Dream Start” market. 4/1 about Kildare to get the first three scores, while still seething internally at the injustice they suffered.

Meath vs Galway

When the prices for this match were first posted, yours truly raised an eyebrow. Yes Galway were disgracefully bad in their one championship outing this year, and yes, the stock of Connacht football is at an all time low. But still, 5/2 about a bad division one team beating a bad division two side? Hard to fathom.

Then the Galway team was released appeared to contain a lot of positive changes, including the return of Michael Meehan and debuts for a few very talented young footballers. Still 5/2. Then today, the Racing Post Goalpost supplement comes out, and there is a veritable chorus of opinion that Meath should win well?

Time may highlight the flaws in the judgement of your columnist, but right now, it’s hard not to feel like the small boy in the fable of the Emporor’s New Clothes. This Meath team, while heavily laden with individual talent, has done nothing this year to command this type of respect. They beat Louth well, but frankly this column would have been a lot more impressed if they had scored 2-14 than 5-8. This Meath team is not scoring points all year, and only once has scored more than 14 times. They’ve relied on goals to carry them through matches, and that’s a risky strategy.

As for Galway’s problems, well undoubtedly they exist, but too much is being made of their Connacht Semi-Final defeat to Mayo. Yes the standard of football was poor, but they were away from home playing Connacht championship, renewing one of the biggest rivalries in football, with their main attacker out injured and on a truly horrendous day for football. Yes they had a bad day, but the media reaction has been completely overdone. While several players underperformed, Tomás O’Flaharta has the luxury of being able to bring in All Ireland under-21 winners to freshen up the squad, which is a nice option to have.

Meath are probably entitled to be narrow favourites here, but 4/6 would be fair, not 4/9. Ladbrokes are joint best in the market at 5/2 about Galway and while the Tribesmen are the type of team that could decide not to bother and lose badly, if they do take to the field in Páirc Tailteann with a real drive to prove their doubters wrong, they are well capable of a win. That price is way out of line and well worth taking.

The decision to hold the Ulster senior football semi final in Clones may make sense from the point of view of minimising the Ulster Council’s VAT liability, however there must surely have been a few grumbles from Derry management and players when the decision was announced to forego the option of playing the tie in either Omagh or Casement Park.

Derry footballers are notoriously badly supported anyway with a very small fan base and this decision will certainly not incentivise any fair weather supporters to make the trip. Not just for reasons of colour, spotting Derry supporters will be like playing where’s Waldo this weekend, as Armagh are set to have the closest thing to a home fixture. However the make up of the crowd is unlikely to have a huge bearing on this game, but Armagh’s familiarity with St. Tiernach’s Park definitely will.

Armagh are rightly proud of their new Morgan Athletic Grounds facility, but the traditional home of Ulster football has become a home from home for them in the last ten years and most Armagh footballers would tell you that they love playing there. Of course the county’s success had a big part in that, but familiarity is a big factor in their favour.

In fact all the prematch indicators seem to be pointing to an Armagh win this weekend. It’s division one against division two, Armagh had much the better preparation with a genuinely high quality win over Down, they have a better track record within Ulster in recent years and up front the pairing of McDonnell and Clarke looks like it should trump the one man attack of Eoin Bradley. Last year’s qualifier fixture did go the way of the Derry men but they had home advantage that day, while neither side was in a good place mentally. Armagh have a spring in their step after disposing of the 2010 All Ireland finallists and while this column remains doubtful that Billy Joe Padden will score another three points all season, never mind in one match, their half forward line overall was a much better attacking force. They took their chancesm but crucially they consistantly got the ball into the hands of the key dangermen.

For Derry, the rumours about Gerard O’Kane missing out are deeply worrying. The experienced defender is one of the Oak Leaf County’s most consistent performers and extensive surgery would be required in order for Derry to restore a balance to their backline in his absence.

However it’s at the other end of the field that Armagh could have the biggest advantage. One of the less reported aspects to Armagh’s win over Down was Paddy O’Rourke’s very astute management in matching up his defenders brilliantly against the dangerous Down forwards. He did a wonderful job in maximising the strengths and minimising the weaknesses in his players and if he can do the same against Derry, then John Brennan looks to have too many problem areas and not enough bushes to plug every gap.

Even allowing for the close relationship between Ladbrokes and Derry GAA, the offer of 10/11 about Armagh this week is a great price. Armagh have championship form on the board, they have a good settled team available for selection and the venue is the one that they would have chosen themselves. They are undoubtedly the best bet of the weekend and could win quite easily.

Tipperary’s impressive victory over Cork yesterday ensured that the Premier County widened the gap at the top of the betting according to Boylesports. The All-Ireland champions have been slashed from 4/5 to 4/11 to win the Munster SHC title. Punters have also continued to back the reigning champions to reclaim their Liam McCarthy Cup come September at 6/5.

Meanwhile, Dublin’s odds have been cut from 5/1 to 7/2 to win their first Leinster Hurling title in 40 years, after surviving a late comeback from a determined Offaly side. However, Kilkenny still remain the clear favourites at 4/7 for Leinster glory.

In football, Armagh recorded a shock victory over Down at the Athletic Grounds. The Orchard County’s impressive display resulted in their odds being dramatically cut from 8/1 to 3/1. Last year’s beaten All-Ireland finalists now face a summer in the qualifiers and are as big as 25/1 to win the Sam.

Nicola McGeady, spokesperson for Boylesports, commented, “It was another weekend of cracking games and big movers from a betting perspective. Tipperary attracted the most money and their chances of retaining their status as All-Ireland champions is looking more and more likely”.

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