Technically, the race for the All Ireland football championship got underway a fortnight ago in Gaelic Park in New York, but with all due respect to the Exiles, the real business starts this weekend, with action taking place in all four provinces. We’ll have a look at the matches later today, but here’s our antepost look at the four provincial championships and our recommendations, starting down south, where Waterford travel to Limerick with a real possibility of making a Munster Final for the first time in over half a century.

Munster SFC

Last year all four of the weaker counties in Munster faced one of the two traditional powers in their first game. No team got within ten points of Cork or Kerry, and the gap between the best and the rest seemed to be as wide as was ever the case. Nothing that has happened so far in 2012 suggested that things are about to change, as Tipperary regressed in their league campaign and the other three counties all failed to escape the basement division. The draw has been kind to Limerick, Clare and Waterford as one of those three will contest a Munster decider, but in the absence of an each way option, that’s really not much use to us. So it’s down to Cork or Kerry, and as usual there is little to call between the two.

This year the pair would be due to meet in Páirc Uí Chaoimh, they are odds against and the Rebel attack is moving a lot better for the return of some of their injured stars. On that basis, they get a tentative nod.

Connacht SFC

Out west, we know that Mayo will be in the final since there is no way they’ll slip up against either Leitrim or London. We know that 8/13 corresponds with a match price of 8/11, which would be reasonable enough if Galway got to the final and were in good scoring form – something which is very possible now that Michael Meehan is close to a full recovery. Nonetheless, Galway face two very dangerous banana skins en route, starting this weekend in Dr Hyde Park. On that basis, Mayo are great value because this 8/13 will look like a massive price if the Tribesmen slip up.

Of the outsiders, Sligo make marginally more appeal than Roscommon simply because they are available at 12/1 and have one less hurdle to cross, but the smart money is still best placed on Mayo.

Ulster SFC

Now the analysis starts to get complicated. What looked like a very handy draw for Down has got a little trickier now that Peter Canavan has made some progress at the helm of Fermanagh, while despite the absence of any real reason for this line of thought, we have a niggling feeling that there could be a kick in Antrim yet. However in a provincial championship littered with minefields, it’s still hard to pick out better value than James McCartan’s charges. Tyrone were flying during the league but Armagh’s performances in Division 1 were very decent as well and that was largely operating without their Crossmaglen players. Donegal should cruise past Cavan this week but they won’t have it easy against Derry in the next round, and neither will they have a huge tactical advantage on all other teams who will be much better prepared for their strategy. Even at best prices, it works out at 4/9 that the team from the good side of the draw wins the final. Out of those, only Armagh at 17/2 with Victor Chandler looks anyway attractive, and it’s very much the poor relation of the five recommended bets below.

Ultimately, Down are odds on to reach the Ulster final and if they get that far, they have the pedigree to put their best foot forward and cause teams problems. Certainly 11/2 outright is a decent price, thinking along the same lines as we did in Connacht. If Tyrone get there, those odds will prove correct. If Tyrone slip up, then this could work out aas a great value bet.

Leinster SFC

From a value betting point of view, this prediction could not be easier or more straightforward. Kildare are 3/1 with VCBet and they make massive appeal at that price. With Meath going so poorly right now, there is a case for saying that of the eleven teams in Leinster, Kildare and the four weakest counties make up one half of the draw. Meath supporters might disagree, but at what point do we start realising that there is a lot more to Meath’s difficulties than one man from Monaghan callen McEnaney? Their under-21 footballers were very poor, Joe Sheridan has missed a lot of time, they haven’t freshened up their team and the players know that the manager is hanging by a thread.

Wicklow’s division 4 title was a worthwhile achievement, much more meaningful than anything they did under Mick O’Dwyer with the possible exception of their Leinster championship win over Kildare, but the standard of football in that fixture was pedestrian in comparison to what Kildare will produce. Offaly are in utter, utter disarray and will be happy just to avoid damage limitation in the Leinster quarter final, while Carlow show no signs of improvement.

Of course Dublin have to be respected, but they have a much tougher route to the final, and even if they do get there, they are entitled to be considered favourites by a point or two, at most. One contentious decision split the teams in 2011 and anything other than 4/6 vs 6/4 would be incorrect betting in such a hypothetical final. Kildare at 3/1 are by far the best value provincial bet available right now.

Provincial Championships – Antepost Recommendations

Munster SFC: Cork @ 6/5 (Hills)

Connacht SFC: Mayo @ 8/13 (Powers, Stan James, Hills)

Ulster SFC: Armagh @ 17/2 (BetVictor), Down @ 11/2 (Boylesports)

Leinster SFC: Kildare @ 3/1 (BetVictor)

The playoffs may still be looming on the horizon, but for the vast majority of teams, the National Football League is over for another year and nothing remains but to pore over the carcass and see what needs to be done in advance of the championship. The big news in division 1 was the failure of Dublin to reach the last four, and they look to be the side with the most work to do in advance of the championship.

Kerry: B

Despite playing without a lot of their frontline players, Kerry still topped the division and while their final round draw with Mayo wasn’t some of their best work, they still look to be in a good place. Bryan Sheehan looks more settled than ever at midfield while Patrick Curtin is showing lots of potential up front. After losing the previous All Ireland final by a point, it doesn’t take a lot new for Kerry to get where they need to be. A much improved performance from the under-21 footballers under the guidance of Eamon Fitzmaurice is more good news for the Kingdom and they also look to have some good prospects in their ranks that could be called upon if required.

Cork – C

Conor Counihan is persisting with the experiment of playing Aidan Walsh as a target man full forward and his goal at the weekend will undoubtedly be seen as some vindication of that policy, but it’s also detracting from the potency of their running game from midfield. Perhaps this is a ploy to counteract blanket defences, but right now Cork are not really running up the scores that they need and look to be a step behind their main rivals.

Down – C

Many would argue that reaching the knockout stages deserves more praise for a county like Down in such heady Division 1 company, but with the exception of their strong performance against Dublin, they haven’t really shown anything new. They have a great killer instinct and they produced a big win over Laois when it was badly needed, but it’s hard to look at the Down team that played throughout the league and say that James McCartan has hit on a new player or a new tactic, or anything that’s going to bump them up from “capable of beating anyone on their day” to “blue chip contender”. They’re in a better place than most, but they only have another year or two before they start to lose a lot of key players and they need to produce soon. It’s hard to tell what McCartan has in his locker but he’ll need something, though a very kind Ulster championship draw will bring them a long way.

Mayo – B

On the grounds that all league games are equal when it comes to points but not all are equal when it comes to championship form, Mayo actually have more cause to be happy than most right now. Granted some of their losses earlier in the campaign were very disappointing, but they rounded off the season with a great performance against Cork where they were edged out of it, a draw in Kerry and a devastating demolition job of Dublin. Yet again they seem to have eight or nine forwards all making a strong case for championship inclusion and Donal Vaughan looks like he’s really stepped up to a whole new level at centre back. Their semi-final against Kerry will be fascinating but one way or another they look well poised to win Connacht and look like great value at 20/1 in places for the All Ireland on that basis.

Dublin – D

The Dubs badly need Bernard Brogan back because up front they are completely lacking penetration. Pat Gilroy said after Sunday’s defeat to Cork that “We uncovered a few new players, which was one of the things we wanted to do”. At the risk of sounding harsh, if he has discovered them, he hasn’t shown them to the rest of us yet. He has got some solid contributions from proven players in different positions, with Kevin McManamon coming to mind in particular in this regard, but they have a lot of work to do and are currently six points behind where they were at the end of 2011. It’s not as simple as just presuming that it’ll all work out in the end.

Donegal – D

They survived by virtue of three home wins in the league, beating Cork when the Rebels had two key players out through suspension, edging past Armagh who had no Crossmaglen players, and beating Mayo on a day when the Connacht champions never showed up. They’ve shown us nothing and knowing Jimmy McGuinness, that’s probably deliberate. Their championship tactics took us all by surprise last year and expect something similar this time around. Ignore their league entirely is the message here.

Laois – D

Realistically the midlanders were always likely to be relegated so dropping to division 2 is no disaster for them, particularly after winning two games and playing quite well in others, most notably against Kerry and Dublin. Their Leinster draw is tricky but if it also represents a nice progression. If they come through Longford and Wexford, they will be very well poised and ready for a Croke Park tie against the Dubs. Nonetheless they lack free scoring inside forwards and they certainly won’t have taken any heart from their under-21 display.

Armagh – B

Another controversial grade, giving a B to a team that just got relegated, but Armagh played competitively in the top flight without having any use of their Crossmaglen players – that’s an incredible achievement. We certainly won’t get involved in the debate about the rights and wrongs of Ciarán McKeever’s red card in Portlaoise but they essentially got relegated that day and it’s safe to say that such a sequence of events won’t happen again. Put the Cross players back into that team and already the 10th of June in the Morgan Athletic Grounds looks like something well worth marking on your calendar.

Working out the various permutations for this weekend’s National Football League division 1 battles would require an advanced degree in Mathematics, however the GAA authorities have been reasonably fortunate in that seven of the eight teams have something to play for this week so at least supporters will be watching teams trying to win before they have to break out their calculators in the last quarter. We’ll start our round up in Cork, where two of the antepost favourites from pre-season meet in a significant battle, one where defeat is not an option that either Conor Counihan or Pat Gilroy would like to countenance.

Cork vs Dublin

It’s no surprise that Dublin have struggled to generate scores in some of their games with Bernard and Alan Brogan playing little or no part in the league so far, but how many pundits would have predicted that the All Ireland champions would miss Eoghan O’Gara as much as they have? O’Gara was central to their win over Laois and a little bit of his physical presence and direct approach would have been a pleasant change in Castlebar when Mayo cut through them for a short cut last week – though granted it would have had nothing more than a cosmetic effect on the scoreboard with so many Dubs off form. Cork will certainly bring plenty of physicality to this game, though so far, their tactic of playing Aidan Walsh at full forward hasn’t quite worked out. Nonetheless they give the impression of a team that is actually a lot closer to the finished product than Dublin, they just need to iron out a few kinks.

This game was a tough one to call all week but Pat Gilroy made up our minds for us with his team selection. Craig Dias, David Byrne and Michael Dara MacAuley are odd selections in a forward line which surely was crying out for the more potent scoring threat that would have been offered by players like Paddy Andrews or Dean Rock. Cork have the more settled team, they have home advantage, and they need to win – we expect they will.

Donegal vs Armagh

Early in the week we were all set to go big on a home win here, but news of the potential absence of Colm McFadden and Paddy McBrearty makes this game impossible to predict unless you have the inside track to their availability. Michael Murphy is already absent, meaning that if these two also fail to make the start, it’s impossible to see where Donegal will get scores. The Tír Chonaill men are the better team at full strength, but that’s no help to us now. The better bet here might be taking Christy Toye to score a goal – if either McBrearty or McFadden fails to make the start, Toye is the most likely candidate to be pushed into a more forward role and at 14/1 to score the first goal, with each way allowed, backing him could be the best way to go.

Kerry vs Mayo

Only Kerry could revamp their team due to having nothing to play for and yet bring in a player like Colm Cooper. It’s almost laughable, if you’re not from Mayo of course.

On form, we’d nearly suggest that an upset is possible here, but Mayo have a terrible record against Kerry and there is a nagging suspicion that their match against Dublin was almost too good to be true – is it really likely that the Mayo forwards will be that accurate again? Then to top it all off, there is Jack O’Connor’s ability to spring either Darran or Declan O’Sullivan from the bench if required. No bet here.

Laois vs Down

Down have actually played some very good football so far in this league campaign and while they were poor against Kerry and atrocious against Cork, they did produce some other very good performances along the way, not least their win over Dublin at Newry. Laois on the other hand have shown good survival instinct, but they haven’t been as impressive in terms of quality. We suspect Down may actually win this with a little in hand, so again we’re going to go for the low-risk, high-return market that is winning margin.

NFL Division 1 Recommendations

Cork vs Dublin: Cork -1pt @ 10/11 (Betpack, Blue Square)

Donegal vs Armagh: Christy Toye to score the first goal @ 14/1, each way (Powers)

Laois vs Down: Down by 4-6 points @ 11/2 (Powers)

Atonement could easily be the theme to this weekend’s round of games in the top flight of the National Football League. Three of the four fixtures are repeats of crucial championship battles in 2011, with Donegal’s trip to Dublin catching the eye in particular. So, for no other reason, we’ll start our rundown at Croke Park.

Dublin vs Donegal

That Donegal’s tactical approach continues to make the headlines says an awful lot about how worried some other teams are about the threat posed by the reigning Ulster champions. Of course traditional powers like Kerry would like nothing more than to have every team playing traditional man on man football, and the side with the most naturally talented forwards would usually win out. However while Donegal’s style might not be particularly attractive to those people, for those of us who enjoy something a little different, it’s intriguing to watch. Also, it’s highly unlikely that the Dublin half forward line won’t be asked to spend plenty of time tracking back too.

This year however the return of Michael Murphy to a more natural attacking role means that Donegal look much more potent at the other end of the field. Yes they kept Mayo to eight scores last week, but they also scored seventeen times themselves. Against a Dublin side that has been very inconsistent so far, there is every chance of an upset here. At 3/1, we’re willing to take the value and hope for a surprise, with undoubtedly more incandescent rage to follow.

Kerry vs Laois

If the stewards in the Champion Chase last week waved as many red flags at the final fence as there are around this fixture from a betting perspective, then there would have been no controversy. We have one team that has already secured their place in the last four but has the ability to scythe through decent opposition if they feel like it, we have opponents who could be galvanised by events of last week or they could come down here with a defeatist attitude, we’ve a squad managed by an Armagh man with players accused of sectarian comments against another Armagh man, and we’ve two sides that haven’t met in  four years so there is no real form to go on. Avoid like you would an open petri dish of ebola virus.

Mayo vs Cork

Mayo have actually won six of their last seven competitive fixtures against Cork, including last year’s All Ireland quarter final, and there remain plenty of question marks over the balance of the Cork attack. Against Down and Laois, the Rebels looked devastating. Against Armagh, Kerry and Donegal, they looked clueless, for long periods at least. Mayo aren’t as bad as Down or Laois, but neither have they defensive strength of the other three, or indeed the strength that they showed themselves in last year’s championship. Their under-21 defeat in midweek was also a very disappointing result and can’t have helped the mood in the camp. Purely on value grounds, a small wager on a home win might be worthwhile.

Armagh vs Down

Armagh supporters, and indeed this columnist, were very taken aback by how poor their under-21 footballers were against Cavan and after losing out to Laois the previous weekend, the county that started the league with three points against Cork and Kerry is suddenly looking like relegation fodder. A tough, hard battle is likely in this fixture with plenty of local rivalry at the heart of everything, but Down clearly stepped up their performance level last weekend against Dublin and a repeat of that form should get them over the line here, though possibly not by very much.

NFL Division 1 Recommendations

Dublin vs Donegal: Donegal to win @ 3/1 (general)

Mayo vs Cork: Mayo to win @ 2/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills, Betpack)

Armagh vs Down: Down to win by 1-2 pts @ 9/2 (Hills)

For the senior footballers and hurlers all across Ireland we’ve a long way still to go until the business end of the season, but already the under-21 championship is beginning to take shape and tonight we’ll get an even clearer picture as to which counties have some of the best prospects coming up through the ranks. Today we’ll preview the four quarter finals taking place in Ulster, where the meeting at Breffni Park tops the bill.

Cavan vs Armagh

As Galway and Wexford have proved so far, reigning under-21 champions means very little when panels change so much from year to year. Cavan retain a lot of their stars from last year but their success in 2011 owed a lot to the attitude and workrate that they brought to every game rather than any significant amount of class. Certainly the All Ireland final against Galway illustrated Cavan’s deficit in that regard and while that may seem unduly critical, it’s actually a huge endorsement of the players themselves that they used their potential so well.

However there is a real danger that they will be outclassed again tonight. Armagh have added plenty of fine young talents to their All Ireland Minor team from 2009 and up front in particular, they look devastating. Under-21 teams don’t always deliver on their potential but if this one does, they’ll win with a bit to spare and could so the whole way through Ulster.

Down vs Antrim

Three years ago there wasn’t a lot to call between Down and Armagh in the Ulster minor final but Down’s players haven’t quite progressed to the same degree, and while Antrim are not usually one of the front runners at this grade, they still have enough raw material in the squad to suggest that they could be competitive. Still, though odds of 1/8 make no appeal, Down should advance here.

Derry vs Monaghan

Monaghan pulled off a surprise win over Derry in last year’s championship and again they look like dark horses in this Ulster championship. There are some concerns about their full back line but they’ve played some good football in challenge matches and will travel to Celtic Park with plenty of cause for optimism. Very little has been said about Derry in the approach to this game and while they have had some promising footballers at minor level over the past three years, they don’t look like worthy odds on shots.

Donegal vs Tyrone

Donegal can call on some proven talent in players like Paddy McBrearty and Brick Molloy for this game, but Tyrone are clearly flying as evidenced by their facile win over Fermanagh, while the ridiculous delay in getting a management team in place in Donegal bodes poorly for the Tír Chonaill men. Getting to know each other is crucial at this grade, all the more so when players might never have met due to the huge distances between the west of the county and places like Inishowen, and it’s notable that Boylesports have already cut their price on Tyrone right in. Expect Paddy Power to follow, so the 5/4 about Tyrone minus two should be taken now, while you can.

Ulster Under-21 Championship Recommendations

Cavan vs Armagh: Armagh to win @ 8/11 (Ladbrokes)

Derry vs Monaghan: Monaghan to win @ 7/4 (Hills, Ladbrokes, Boylesports)

Donegal vs Tyrone: Tyrone -2 pts @ 5/4 (Powers)

Some lucky Cork bus company got a gig they weren’t expecting when tomorrow night’s league fixture between the Rebel County and Laois was moved from Leeside to the midlands, and certainly the bookmaking community won’t have been too unhappy either as what was something of a dead rubber is suddenly now a much more competitive fixture. Dublin host Armagh in the second leg of a big time double header in Croke Park on Sunday, while elsewhere in the division, Kerry will be expected to continue their good form against a Donegal team who will see how Cork felt after travelling the full length of the country, while Down travel to Mayo, who were quietly impressive against Armagh last weekend.

Laois vs Cork

Justin McNulty’s men always looked second best against the visiting Dubs last weekend, but they still could easily have finished within the three point spread were it not for a late strike by Eoghan O’Gara to increase the final gap to five. Cork have now dropped points twice on their travels up to Ulster and with fixtures against Kerry, Mayo and Dublin still to come, they’ll want to boost their tally and take a strong step closer to the league playoffs.

Last week we were happy to oppose Cork, but that was with a good Donegal team who had Michael Murphy coming back, while Cork missing two key players through suspension. Murphy duly scored 1-3 and Donegal won – but Laois have no such hero riding into battle to save them. Ladbrokes and Boyles both go 11/10 about Cork winning by four or more and against a very ordinary Laois team who will be eying up upcoming matches against Armagh and Down as the ones to save their season, that bet looks very attractive.

Kerry vs Donegal

That Donegal have improved is beyond doubt, but Fitzgerald Stadium in Killarney is a long way from Letterkenny or Ballybofey and when the Ulster champions get there, they’ll meet a Kingdom side that are in very strong form at the moment. Expect Donegal to put up a strong defensive display but the Kingdom to do enough.

Dublin vs Armagh

After taking three points from games against Kerry and Cork, Armagh put up their worst display of the year last weekend against Mayo and suddenly the prospect of relegation is very real once again. Whether or not they make the drop will almost certainly be determined in their other games rather than here, since even Armagh playing well would struggle to live with Dublin. The news that Bernard Brogan has been given the all clear and has resumed training is another boost and the very short odds on a home win look justified.

Mayo vs Down

Down started the year with a great home win over Donegal and while there is no shame in losing to Cork and Kerry in successive weeks, they haven’t looked competitive against those opponents. They should find the going a little easier in Castlebar, but not by that much. James Horan continues to impress with the subtle balancing of the often conflicting goals of getting results and blooding players. They could win well here.

NFL Division 1 recommendations

Laois vs Cork: Cork -3pts @ 11/10 (Ladbrokes, Boylesports)

Kerry vs Donegal: Kerry to win by 4-6 points @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)

Mayo vs Down: Mayo -3pts @ 11/10 (Powers, Hills)

Not unlike the third round of the US Masters golf tournament which is referred to as “Moving Day”, so it is in the National Football League, where round three is the chance for counties start to show real signs of how they are fixed for the summer and how the remainder of their league season is likely to pan out. Early February comes a little quickly for a lot of managers, however even the few that adhere to the winter training ban have now had a couple of months to settle in together and form starts to become much more meaningful.

We’ll start our “Moving Weekend” set of previews with a look at Division 1.

Laois vs Dublin

Rumours that Alan and Bernard Brogan were poised to return for tomorrow night’s clash in O’Moore Park turned out to be erroneous as Tomás Quinn and Diarmuid Connolly fill the corner forward slots either side of Eoghan O’Gara, but even allowing for the absence of the Oliver Plunketts siblings, it’s very hard to make a case to support Laois here. The O’Moore men pulled off a great victory in Donegal last time out but that still looks like a one off result rather than a sign of greater things to come. A 1-16 to 0-13 reverse against Offaly last Saturday night in a challenge match doesn’t suggest that things are going too well and we saw enough from Dublin in the first half of their abandoned match against Mayo to suggest that they are moving at a different tempo now.

Armagh vs Mayo

You can have odds against about either team in this fixture if you shop around, though if you’re a fan of historical trends, you’ll just be looking for one side – it’s actually one week short of twenty years since Mayo last beat Armagh in a competitive fixture. Granted that twenty years just saw the teams play each other five times and last year’s one goal win for Armagh in Castlebar was their first meeting in six seasons. Much more relevant is Armagh’s current good current form and after taking three points from battles with Kerry and Cork, they could have the upper hand here in front of their own supporters. Malachy Mackin’s place in the team is confirmed after there were some doubts about his participation, and while Ciaran McKeever’s absence is a worry, Ladbrokes’ offer of 5/4 about a home win is good enough for us.

Down vs Kerry

Kerry manager Jack O’Connor is famous for his chip on the shoulder regarding Ulster teams and the recalled Declan O’Sullivan will surely share some of that sentiment after the controversial All Ireland Junior semi final between Derrytresk and his own Dromid Pearses. Down’s most recent outing in the league would put you off betting on them for the foreseeable future, but it’s still a long journey for the Kingdom and not the kind of game where we’d like to recommend a bet. Our gut feeling is that Down at 13/5 with William Hill might be worth a second look but this is definitely one of the most unpredictable games of the weekend.

Donegal vs Cork

Donegal have left themselves with a huge mountain to climb after taking no points from two relatively easy ties against Down and Laois, so the pressure is really on for this home fixture against Cork. If they lose, with trips to Dublin and Kerry still to come, they’ll almost certainly be facing a swift return to division two. While their form in February was a concern, the stars are aligning for Donegal a little bit here and they could cause a shock this week. The suspensions to Michael Shields and Pierce O’Neill will rob Cork of some of their power, while Eoin Cotter replaces Eoin Cadogan due to injury, also in the full back line, leaving Cork looking a little weak in that sector. The return of Michael Murphy to action for DCU is also a boost and of course it would be foolish to ignore the logistical nightmare that is Cork making their way to Ballybofey for this fixture. It’s notable too that after touching 5/2 for a time, Paddy Powers have seen fit to cut Donegal into 2/1. Whoever was putting on that money could be on to a winner this week.

NFL Division 1 Recommendations

Laois vs Dublin: Dublin to win by 4-6  points at 10/3 (Ladbrokes, Powers)

Armagh vs Mayo: Armagh to win @ 5/4 (Ladbrokes)

Donegal vs Cork: Donegal to win @ 3/1 (Bodog)

The upcoming three week break may not suit a lot of counties looking to build momentum, but while results from this coming weekend of the national football league will be disregarded as winter scores by the time championship rolls around, the points are crucially important and will count just as much as those secured later in the season. We start our preview in Castlebar, where the Setanta Sports cameras will be in place to watch the battle between the reigning Connacht champions and the Sam Maguire holders at McHale Park.

Mayo vs Dublin

Mayo were very efficient in their opening round game against Laois at O’Moore Park and while that result went a little un-noticed up against the more glamorous fare that was on offer in Croke Park, a six point away win in this league has to be respected, no matter where it happens. Dublin for their part came up against a highly motivated Kerry team and struggled to secure any possession against the Kingdom, who clearly had a point or two to prove after last year’s All Ireland final.

Reports that Pat Gilroy held his players back in the dressing room after the game and pointed out a few home truths could indicate that the Dubs might be ready to move up a gear tomorrow night, but sometimes it’s not just about desire, it’s about desire in the gym and on the training field and how that work bears fruit on the field of play. On that basis Mayo make a lot of appeal this week, particularly at even money on Ladbrokes’ draw-no-bet market. Perhaps the one area of the field where Mayo struggled last weekend was at midfield, but as is now widely known, Dublin don’t really engage in traditional midfield battles and their partnership of Ross McConnell and Michael Dara MacAuley are much more about covering ground and offering themselves as outlets and tackling support than contesting primary possession.

Dublin might not lose the battle for possession as heavily this week but the absence of the two Brogan brothers still robs them of their scoring edge. Mayo, by contrast, have a nicely balanced forward line with five of the six likely starters all capable of chipping in with a couple of scores.

Kerry vs Armagh

Armagh were the bane of the multiple betting community last week when they pulled off a coupon-busting draw against Cork at the Morgan Athletic Grounds. Paul Kerrigan’s red card certainly didn’t help matters for the visitors but even so it was a hugely encouraging result for Paddy O’Rourke’s men and one that could stand to them in the battle to avoid relegation, not to mention provide a huge confidence boost to the squad.

Kerry however would have covered a six point handicap against Dublin were it not for a disastrous day’s shooting so presuming they improve a little in that regard, and allowing for home advantage and Jack O’Connor’s longstanding desire to assert supremacy over Ulster opposition, they still look like very strong and worthy favourites here. Nobody would get rich backing the Kingdom to win at odds of 1/8, but it was notable that Armagh struggled for scores, even last week when playing well. If the Kingdom come close to replicating that level of hunger, they can keep Armagh down to a low level of scoring again.

Cork vs Down

Once bitten, twice shy?

Cork backers got burned last week at short odds, and now prices of 1/4 are on offer to tantalise punters against a Down team that looked very ordinary against Donegal. When your half back line scores 1-6 and your starting six forwards register one point from play between them, something is not quite right with your attacking system. Donegal started slowly, they were missing their two main attacking weapons in Colm McFadden and Michael Murphy and they still probably deserved at least a share of the spoils in Newry last week. Cork should win here and Hills may not hold their three point handicap, the only one in the marketplace, for too much longer.

Donegal vs Laois

With no points on the board for either team, the loser here will be looking at a relegation battle and there are reasons not to trust either side. Laois had what looked like a decent forward line shut out against Mayo, while Donegal were a long way short of key fitness and allowed Down to move the ball around and through their blanket defence system. As was pointed out above, the delayed footage of the Down vs Donegal match on Setanta suggested that Donegal were a little better than the result suggested, but we don’t feel comfortable trusting a team at 1/2 where they are far from guaranteed to be in good form. No bet here.

Division One Recommendations

Mayo vs Dublin: Mayo @ 1/1, draw-no-bet (Ladbrokes)

Kerry vs Armagh: Armagh Total under 10.5 @ 4/6 (Powers)

Cork vs Down: Cork -3pts @ 4/5 (William Hill)

The GAA may get a lot of things wrong, but they have mastered the art of starting the National Football League with a bang in recent years and tomorrow night’s double header featuring Kildare vs Tyrone and Dublin vs Kerry is a genuinely mouthwatering attraction, one that should attract a substantial crowd for what will be an incredible night of entertainment. We’ll have a look at Kildare vs Tyrone later today, but for now, let’s have a look at the All Ireland final rematch to kick off our previewing for the week.

Dublin vs Kerry

Last year’s All Ireland final was not unlike an episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer for Dublin supporters, since so many demons were killed over the course of the match. They beat Kerry in an All Ireland final, they delivered a fantastic comeback when it looked like they were dead and buried and thus proved their mental fortitude, and above all they bridged the 16 year gap and ensured that the Sam Maguire Cup spent the winter in the nation’s capital city. Their priority for 2012 will of course be to retain that title and while any victory over Kerry is a good day’s work, much like the O’Byrne Cup semi final two weeks ago, this is a game that Dublin would like to win, but yet they have no real need of doing so. Bernard Brogan, Alan Brogan and Paul Flynn are among the significant absentees from the forward line, but Mossy Quinn has been in good form so far this year while Diarmuid Connolly is capable of scoring well, so that’s not really our concern.

Traditionally opposing Kerry in the first round of the league is a good policy to keep. They’ve often come out of the blocks slowly and usually bounce back in week two. That said, it’s never good to underestimate the intensity that a Kerryman can bring to a game if he feels in any way slighted. Last year was supposed to be Colm Cooper’s year to lift the Sam Maguire and while Dublin probably deserved their narrow win in the final, Kerry can certainly feel a little aggrieved with a few marginal decisions that went against them, none more so than the free that was awarded and converted by Stephen Cluxton to win the game. Dublin are a long way off full fitness yet and even without the Dr Crokes players, Kerry look like the more motivated side here.

Down vs Donegal

Last year Donegal hit the ground running, this year so far they’ve been very flat and the general consensus appears to be that a home win is the most likely outcome here. This column is not so sure about that. Derry shut down the highly rated Down attack in the McKenna Cup semi-final and thoughDonegal are missing a few very important players for this game – in the absence of Colm McFadden, Michael Murphy and Mark McHugh, one wonders where their scores will come from – this is a game where both managers will be drawing heavily on their reserves. In that context, the team with the best system, where panel players can slot in and do a job, may have the advantage and that suggests Donegal can be competitive in what could be one of the lowest scoring matches of the weekend. The match odds seem correct, so we’ll side with a shutout here.

Laois vs Mayo

Laois outdid themselves to secure promotion to division one last year, but one wonders if it will seem like a pyrrhic victory after a tough campaign in the top flight this Spring. Games away to Donegal, Kerry and Cork look like lost causes before the start, so they will have to look at taking at least five if not six points from their four home fixtures to have any chance of staying up. Mayo have been moving well so far this Spring and even though Laois tend to go well under lights at O’Moore Park, we suspect an arduous league campaign starts tomorrow night for Justin McNulty’s men.

Armagh vs Cork

Ladbrokes posted up 1/2 about a Cork win earlier this week and they were quickly brought back into line by the weight of money, while even the 2/5 that was generally available is starting to move now, as the punters line up to take on a home side shorn of their Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Armagh have sometimes surprised us in the past with strong performances at home, but two debutant corner forwards either side of a full forward who is more known for his workrate than his finishing does not suggest that they will score freely this weekend. Now look at the Cork team – arguably stronger than the side that lined out in their last championship match, due to players returning from injury. Taking a global view, it seems wrong not to recommend a single home team to win in a full round of games, but despite an inspecific sense of uneasiness about doing so, logic forces us to back Cork to cover the spread here.

Division One Recommendations

Dublin vs Kerry: Kerry @ 11/10 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Down vs Donegal: No Goalscorer @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)

Laois vs Mayo: Mayo -3pts @ 23/10 (Powers – alternative handicap)

Armagh vs Cork: Cork -3pts @ 11/10 (William Hill)

Perhaps the highest profile football fixture that took place last weekend was Down’s meeting with Armagh in the McKenna Cup, probably the only all-division one battle that will take place in preseason competition in 2012. What looked like a renewal of a fiercely contested local derby when it was first drawn up turned into something of a canter for Down however, as Armagh struggled to compensate for the absence of their Crossmaglen players and several other key individuals. James McCartan’s selection looked very fresh when first announced, but he had a lot of strength on the bench to call upon if required, and the value of that was clear to see when he was able to get meaningful contributions from Conor Laverty, Aidan Brannigan and of course Benny Coulter.

The question that now has to be asked, since most observers and journalists present in Newry agreed that the eight point margin was a fair reflection, is how good were Down? Alternatively, how bad were Armagh?

To put it another way – Monaghan had an eight point win over St Mary’s College, who were expected to struggle without some key players like Tyrone’s Peter Harte, but their substantial winning margin was largely the result of some very poor shooting from the teaching college students and most observers in Clones felt that a five or six point margin would have been fairer, albeit in a match that never really caught fire. So in theory at least, the gap between Down and Monaghan should be the same if not bigger than the gap between Armagh and St Mary’s – yet Armagh are  as short as 1/4 in places for their match, while Monaghan are not to be had at any price bigger than the 2/1 on offer from William Hill. It’s not unreasonable to infer that either the potential of an upset in the Morgan Atheltic Grounds is being understated, or else Down should be stronger favourites against Monaghan.

The wild card in this line of thinking however is the concern about which teams will improve most from last Sunday to next – and of course the answer here should be the county teams. The college sides have played a league campaign as a coherent panel and are a lot further in their development, while the county sides have theoretically at least, not been playing collectively for several months. Having had their first session together, they should improve immensely for that exercise, all the more when trying to integrate new players with more experienced footballers. Nonetheless the very real prospect of greatly altered teams mitigates this somewhat.

While there is a lot to like about Down, best priced at 8/13 with Boylesports – certainly we’d prefer to be backing that than taking the 2/1 about Monaghan – our gut feeling here is that Armagh really struggled to compensate for the absence of their key players and that they could be very vulnerable favourites this week. St Mary’s haven’t shown any signs over the winter of improving significantly on their performances in recent years, but they’ve still won one game out of three in this competition in each of the last three seasons. With Down currently flying, they’ll almost certainly have to beat Armagh to keep that record up for a fourth successive year and while the county men should still hold an edge, Hills, Powers and Boylesports are all 10/3 about an upset win and that price is just about big enough to justify a small interest.

McKenna Cup Round 2 Recommendation

Armagh vs St Marys: St Mary’s to win at 10/3 (Boylesports, Hills, Powers)

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