Posts Tagged ‘Cavan’
Amidst all the talk of the competitiveness of the Ulster football championship and how every team is capable of beating one another, it can often get forgotten that sometimes there is simply a gulf in class between sides. This is usually priced in when Tyrone are involved, but this particular column and the recommendation that follows is not about one team being better than all the others – this is about one team being a lot worse. Worse than their counterparts today, indeed worse than any Ulster team has been for several years now.
Nobody likes bankers very much these days and visions of Seanie Fitzpatrick and the like living it up on the taxpayers’ shilling is hard to stomach for a lot of people, but in a betting shop, bankers are still very welcome. Everybody loves a short odds favourite that looks like it can’t lose and “bankers” thus get inserted to make up the odds on every multiple bet going.
This column has never been a huge fan of multiple bets since mathematically, there is much more margin built in than is the case with single bets. As any bookie worth his salt will tell you, a punter who regularly bets 7/1 single bets will almost always beat the punter who places the same stake on a treble on three even money shots, simply because the margin built into the treble is usually so much more.
Last week we had a look at which counties appeared to be moving well in the preseason competitions, but just as some teams are overachieving, others are falling a little short of where they need to be and they too should be looked at, with a view to opposing them in the earlier stages of the national league or simply towards being fully informed before acting in any form.
Of course preseason competition cannot be treated too seriously and in no way should it be taken as a reliable form guide, but it remains very difficult to break a losing habit or to get players to turn around their form no matter how irrelevant the games are where such enthusiasm is expected. Preseason form should never be a primary factor in striking a bet, but it could be enough to turn an inclination into either a strong bet, or alternatively into a decision not to bet at all.
As with any sport, late tactical adjustments can go a long way towards securing the desired result in the betting game also. Team news is a tricky thing to read at this time of year as a hungry but less well known 21 year old can often be a more effective performer at this time of year than the established star who knows that his jersey is secure for the championship. However a manager’s intentions can still be read from the line up which is selected and can sometimes help point as to where the money should be placed.
