As we discussed in our column earlier today, the provincial football championships all begin in earnest this weekend, with five teams poised to exit the race for their respective provincial titles on Sunday, barring draws. The Sunday Game cameras will travel to Dr Hyde Park in Roscommon to take in the meeting of the Rossies and Galway in the Connacht quarter final, however there are good betting opportunities all across Ireland, starting at Navan, where Westmeath look well poised to break a run of defeats against Louth.

Westmeath vs Louth

Louth manager Peter Fitzpatrick probably wishes he could play Westmeath every week. In four games against the Lake County, he has guided Louth to four wins, three in the league and one in the 2010 Leinster championship.  Louth also won the last meeting between these two counties before Fitzpatrick took over – a 1-12 to 0-7 victory in the 2007 National League – but previously this was actually a fixture that Westmeath dominated, with seven wins in succession between 2001 and 2006. This column’s suspicion is that the tide could be turning back in Westmeath’s favour, after the Lazarus act that saved their place in Division 2.

Both sides are entitled to be very proud of their achievements in salvaging Division 2 status – both counties were odds on to make the drop – but Westmeath should be a little bit stronger on Sunday than they were in the league, while key absentees from the Louth team should leave them a weaker side than they were in the Spring. John Gaffey, Doran Harte and James Dolan are all selected to start on Sunday having spent most of the Spring playing football in the green and red of Garrycastle instead of the maroon colours of Westmeath, while Eoin O’Connor, Eamon McAuley and Shane Lennon all miss out due to injury on the Louth side.

As if that weren’t enough, Brian White, Brian Donnelly, James Califf and Cathal Bellew have all decided to emigrate to the US for the summer, while regular full back Dessie Finnegan will miss the game as he will be on his honeymoon. Needless to say not all of the eight players listed above would start, but if they were all available, they would possibly fill as many as four of the spinal positions on the team. Louth simply don’t have the depth to justify favouritism with so many gaps in central positions and so Westmeath represent great value.

Longford vs Laois

This is a fascinating game on so many levels. Longford are brimming with confidence, they will play in front of a home crowd, they play a wonderful fast, attacking brand of football and they are looking forward with enthusiasm to this Leinster campaign and in particular the chance to settle a score with Laois, after they came so close to beating them last year. Laois in contrast are riddled with self-doubt, struggling to find form and unsure of their identity. However while both these teams will play division 2 football in 2013, there were two divisions between them this year and this is still the same Laois team that beat both Armagh and Donegal and gave Dublin a tough contest.

For all the reasons listed above, Longford are a very “lovable” county at the moment. They’re the type of plucky underdog that neutrals love, but that can sometimes lead to fundamental flaws being overlooked. For example they are not strong ball winners at midfield, and the swashbuckling, attacking style of their forward division can sometimes leave the defence exposed. However Laois haven’t improved from Spring to Summer for a while now and they aren’t worthy of trust at odds on.

What we can believe in is the likelihood of a high scoring game, Longford’s very way of playing ensures it. Last year Laois played very defensive football but that didn’t really work out for them and Justin McNulty has reverted to a more attacking style this year. Boylesports have pitched their total points mark at 27.5 – on a good playing surface like Pearse Park and in front of a partisan home crowd, we’re confident that number will be surpassed.

Cavan vs Donegal

This is one of those predictions that more experienced GAA pundits don’t usually make, because it can come back to haunt you in the white heat of championship. However we’re going to go ahead and do it anyway, even if it does risk making us look foolish. Donegal should win this with plenty to spare.

Cavan should experience a certain bounce under Terry Hyland and they have some good young footballers to call upon, but they are a world away from where Donegal are in their preparations right now. One of these teams is an All Ireland contender, the other is a team that would be playing division 4 football in 2013 but for the fact that they miraculously found two teams worse than them this year in the third tier. Donegal’s defensive style is the only thing that has this handicap so low, and frankly if it were a six point handicap instead of a three, this columnist would still fancy Donegal to cover, that’s how bad Cavan are.

Limerick vs Waterford

Waterford haven’t beaten anyone other than Clare in the Munster football championship in nearly a quarter of a century.

We give that line a paragraph all to itself so we can allow the magnitude of that statement to sink in. No matter what issues Limerick may have had this year, they still should be better than Waterford, who continue to struggle. If this game were taking place in Fraher Field we might have some belief in the possibility of an upset, but even allowing for the somewhat uncharacteristically free scoring 1-18 to 1-14 win for Waterford when these two counties met in the league, we’d prefer to go for a lower stakes, higher return bet this week than backing the underdogs, who look to be up against it.

So we’re going to pick two players for a first goalscorer bet. First we’ll go with Mark Ferncombe, who scored four goals for Waterford in the league while no other player raised more than a single green flag, and we’re also going to side with Seamus O’Carroll for Limerick. The big full forward is one of the players who should relish the opportunity to go for balls dropping into the square and while he’s been praised highly for his achievements playing handball in recent weeks, he’s also a very accomplished footballer and one who will be a real threat to the Waterford goal this Sunday.

Roscommon vs Galway

If Roscommon manager Des Newton can go into championship battle without feeling the need to start a single member of an under-21 panel that reached the All Ireland final, then clearly he believes that either (a) Roscommon have serious strength in depth, or (b) the under-21′s weren’t that good after all. As with all things, it’s probably a little bit of both.

Galway football this year has given the impression of being very, very close to hitting the mark. Alan Mulholland has imposed a style and pattern to the county’s play and eliminated a lot of the individuality that plagued the Tribesmen in recent years. He now has a young, strong panel who are working hard for each other and if Michael Meehan is in fact close to making a return as is rumoured, then this could yet turn out to be a good summer for Galway. The problem is that they have always shown a genuine disinterest in the qualifiers and in order to avoid that minefield, they need to get out of Dr Hyde Park intact. This could prove tricky, and while this column remains of the view that there are parallels between Roscommon football and the emporor with no clothes, there’s nothing to be gained by punting the Galway at 8/15. Instead, we’ll again play the square ball rule change and side with another big full forward to net the first goal – in this case Paul Conroy of St James and Galway.

Match Betting Recommendations

Louth vs Westmeath: Westmeath to win @ 5/4 (Bet365, Skybet)

Longford vs Laois: Over 27.5 total points @ 5/6 (Boylesports)

Cavan vs Donegal: Donegal -3pts @ 5/6 (Boylesports, Bet365)

Limerick vs Waterford: Seamus O’Carroll @ 7/1 and Mark Ferncombe @ 8/1 to score the first goal. (Ladbrokes)

Roscommon vs Galway: Paul Conroy to score the first goal @ 7/1 (general)

For Longford and Wexford, these season’s league campaign has been a genuine success, regardless of how they fare in Croke Park on Saturday evening. However for the other six counties that took part in NFL division 3, this year was either a little disappointing or else a complete failure. In the third part of our series of mid-term report cards, we look at the eight division three counties and assess their performances so far.

Longford – A

In contrast to some counties that we will speak about later in this column, Longford are the poster children for the stability, patience and the benefits of sticking to a long term plan. The county has punched above it’s weight at minor and under-21 level in recent years and they’ve put their faith in Glen Ryan, who has rewarded them with a gradual improvement in the fortunes of the county. They’ve introduced some good young players into the team this year and it’s incredible to think that a team who so recently was hugely dependent on Brian Kavanagh and the Bardens is still one of the best attacking sides in the league, even after those key players have slipped past their peak. Already there is a groundswell of momentum suggesting that they will beat Laois in the first round of the Leinster championship, though early prices on offer seem to be allowing for this.

Wexford – B

It’s no surprise that Wexford went well in this league. They’ve had very little player turnover in recent years and manager Jason Ryan is continuing to do good work with the raw material at his disposal. The challenge for them this year is to take the next step in the championship and pull off a win against a team like Kildare or Dublin, or one of their equivalents in the qualifiers. There is good depth in the Wexford squad and the vast majority of players have a lot of years of hard physical training behind them – anyone involved in football will say that in terms of core strength and power, Wexford are up there with the best of them – but the time has come to try and produce something more meaningful, because time is running out. They have to deliver this year, and they know it.

Sligo – C

They come to the summer on the back of three wins in succession and but for narrow defeats in games against Antrim and Cavan, they would have secured a quick return to division two. The emergence of Niall Murphy as an inside forward of real potential was the good news story of the league for Kevin Walsh and his team, though they do concede a lot of scores and need to create a lot of their own – unlike a few years ago where Sligo rarely if ever conceded more than a dozen scores in a game. If Roscommon beat Galway, then look for Sligo to ambush the Rossies in the semi final.

Roscommon – D

A D grade might seem harsh, but Roscommon never really delivered a strong performance during this league campaign and they were distinctly second best in their matches against Longford and Wexford – even though the final two point margins suggested a different story. The success of their under-21 footballers is the good news story in the county for now, but Roscommon don’t need more good young players – they need more of their 22-25 year old footballers to step up and become leaders. In a few very notable cases, that’s simply not happening so far. It’s not that they don’t have potential, but the league told us nothing new.

Antrim – C

Great start, woeful finish, mitigated only by their goalscoring spree against Cavan in the final round. There always was and continues to be plenty of talent in Antrim football, but producing consistent performances seems to be beyond them. Monaghan are there to be ambushed in Ulster but even if they do knock out the Farney County, it’s hard to see them producing a second big game against either Down or Fermanagh. The punter who accurately predicts their mood is a shrewd judge.

Cavan – E

Okay, they escaped relegation – but they didn’t deserve to. They dropped points against a woeful Offaly team and then contrived to lose to a second string Antrim side with their division three lives at stake. Under-21 success is all very well but there are senior footballers in this county that need to start producing and now that they’ve disposed of Val Andrews, they have no more excuses for their mediocrity. They will lose to Donegal in the first round of the championship, that much is certain, but Cavan have been disinterested in the qualifiers for too long – they need to produce a run this summer. We wouldn’t like to bet on it happening.

Tipperary – E

After so many things were going well in Tipperary football, out of nowhere they produced this pig of a league campaign. John Evans decision to walk away in mid-season spoke volumes and if Barry Grogan does decide to head for foreign shores this summer, they have no other forward on form. It’s a great pity after so many positive steps, but right now they simply look like makeweights in the championship.

Offaly – F

The Offaly footballers seem to be taking dysfunctional to all new levels after they produced a shocking league campaign, capped off by a miserable effort to save themselves against Tipperary. Even getting every break going, from an uninspired opponent to unlikely help from the Antrim reserves, and still they couldn’t produce scores. Another manager has walked the plank and now Tom Coffey comes on board and while the former Rhode boss will command plenty of respect, too much damage has been done. A humiliation beckons at the hands of Kildare and God knows what after that.

Two of the four counties aiming to reach the All Ireland under-21 football championship final tomorrow afternoon are featuring at this stage of the competition for the second year in a row, but only Cavan out of the two are favoured to progress, while Cork are clear underdogs against Dublin. Dublin will undoubtedly have the bulk of the support in O’Moore Park since their hurlers will bring plenty of sky blue clad supporters to flesh out the crowd, but even so the value could be with the Munster champions, who have come through a tough Munster final against their old rivals from the Kingdom.

Dublin vs Cork

Cork manager John Cleary was poor mouthing to the media earlier this week about his five players who were all supposedly suffering from injuries, while he also threw in a sideswipe about how far Portlaoise was from some of his players in West Cork. Presumably he was angling for Mitchelstown as a neutral venue, but punters have seen right through his complaints and most of the 2/1 about Cork has been backed out of existence, with only Stan James and BetPack still holding that price. Lo and behold, all five injury doubts were named to start in the Cork team and the punting public were proved right. Of course they still have a lot to do, but it says a lot that Cleary feels the need totalk his team down rather than up.

Dublin come into this semi final on the back of a wave of hype, much of it surrounding teenage sensation Ciarán Kilkenny, who really proved his incredible talents against Louth in the provincial decider. Certainly this is a highly capable Dublin outfit but Leinster was particularly poor this year, with Meath and Laois fielding some of their worst teams at this level for a long time. Kildare were expected to provide Dublin with their toughest challenge but they failed to get their campaign off the ground, losing by a point to Offaly in Gracefield. Dublin have looked good cutting through poor teams for a short cut but they have to find a new level tomorrow and they might find the going tough. In what could be a low scoring game, take the two point head start given to the Rebels by Stan James and look for an upset.

Cavan vs Roscommon

This column went against Cavan twice already this year, both against Armagh and Derry, and since we paid the price on each occasion, we won’t do so again. However this is not a good betting game for the simple reason that there is a good possibility that Roscommon haven’t shown their full hand yet, and they could be a much better team than people realise. They cruised through their Connacht final against Sligo and were very much the better team against Mayo, even though the scoreline didn’t give any indication. On that basis, we’ll stick with a goalscorer bet here and side with Colin Compton, 9/1 with Powers to get the first goal of the game.

The Strokestown forward has been the focal point of the Roscommon attack at the edge of the square and while he’s done great work so far bringing the players around him into the game, he’s also proved that he’s able to finish himself when the opportunity arises. Roscommon will look for him early and often and at 9/1 he looks like a real threat and possibly the most likely Ros player to raise a green flag.

U21 Recommendations

Dublin vs Cork: Cork +2pts @ 11/10 (Stan James, Betpack)

Cavan vs Roscommon: Colin Compton to score the first goal @ 9/1 (Powers)

Unlike the top flight, the lower divisions of the National Football League are littered with contests where there is little or nothing at stake for the competing teams this weekend. Plenty of sides have no reason to look either up or down the table, and while that can often lead to betting opportunities, it’s a dangerous game to play. For that reason, we’re going to start with the most competitive game of them all, the Division Two promotion decider at Pearse Stadium.

Galway vs Kildare

Two good golden rules to follow in the betting game are, never trust Galway at odds on against a weaker opponent, but always respect their ability to produce a very high quality game when you least expect it. A one point haul from their games against Louth and Westmeath seemed to condemn them to another mid table finish at best, but good wins over Monaghan and Meath have salvaged their season and suddenly they face a one off game with promotion on the table for the winner.

However for Galway, the timing could not be worse since the Lilies are on an incredible run of form at the moment, scoring 7-69 in their last four games. Since Galway have yet to score nineteen times in a game this year, never mind average nineteen scores over a run of four games, it’s safe to say that a huge defensive performance will be required if the Tribesmen are to prevail on Sunday.

Kildare’s pursuit of Seanie Johnston continues unabated, but honestly it’s hard to see why he’s needed. They’ve found their rhythm now and while we don’t like opposing Galway at odds on, we’ll instead take Kildare to cover an alternative handicap at a big price. Galway might pull off a shock here, but anything less than their best and they could be on the end of a heavy defeat.

Meath vs Louth

Under normal circumstances, these teams would be cursing their luck as relegation rivals Monaghan got the benefit of playing Tyrone when the Red Hand men were already qualified, but Mickey Harte would be very slow to harm the integrity of the competition so chances are that Tyrone will go for the win and get it, so Meath will probably be safe from relegation regardless of how they go in this fixture. Nonetheless this match has the potential to be quite spiky since there is plenty of feeling left over from the famous Leinster final of 2010, and Louth didn’t exactly make a good effort at redeeming their pride in last year’s qualifier fixture.

The Wee County are actually playing quite well at the moment without necessarily getting the results  their football deserves. While their under-21 players were outclassed on Wednesday night, there are one or two individuals in that panel who are ready to make a meaningful contribution at senior level. Meath too have played some reasonable football in recent weeks but Seán Boylan’s resignation from his “Director of Football” role is very worrying. If Louth can get over their traditional hang up when it comes to playing Meath – admittedly that’s a big if – they look like the value here with the head start.

Cavan vs Antrim

It’s been a real season of two halves for Antrim, who started the league in great form but have now lost three games in a row and would surely be worrying about the drop if the season was only a game or two longer. Cavan haven’t exactly pulled up any trees at any level but they have been moderately competitive throughout the year and their under-21 footballers are certainly leading the way in the county.

Antrim manager Liam Bradley made it clear how seriously – or not – he was taking the fixture when he named a team that went very deep into his panel. Some of these youngsters have a point to prove, but Cavan have a season to save, and they should be capable of doing just that, backboned by their under-21s who continue to go from strength to strength.

NFL Lower Division Recommendations

Galway vs Kildare: Kildare -5pts @ 3/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Louth: Louth +2pts @ 11/10 (general)

Cavan vs Antrim: Cavan @ 5/6 (Stan James/Betpack)

It’s a bit early yet to say that this year will see the launch of another “Drive for Five” in Dublin GAA – or maybe even the “Joy of Six” – but the Metropolitans are off to a good start in the under-21 football championship and they should put the first piece of silverware on the table tonight. Elsewhere there is semi final action in Ulster, while the Connacht title will be decided on Saturday evening in Dr Hyde Park.

Dublin vs Louth

Dublin have enjoyed two large victories in succession in this championship and while Laois were in disarray under Pat Roe, that was a good Westmeath team that they put to the sword a fortnight ago in Parnell Park. Louth by contrast were marginally the better team in their win over Longford, but if it wasn’t for a very kind run of the ball against Offaly, they would have exited the championship at that stage. Without attempting to sound too biased, a perfectly legitimate Offaly goal was pulled back for a free in to be given instead, Anton Sullivan missed two 20m frees and even then Louth were hanging on at the end as Offaly’s greater fitness almost reeled them in. This Louth team may yet provide the template for beating sides that play a blanket defence since their tendency of playing long foot passes from one 45m line to the other and looking for runners off the shoulder instead of playing long from midfield to the scoring zone meant that the football got to the danger area before Offaly defenders did. Nonetheless Dublin won’t be playing such a defensive game, neither will they give Louth as big a head start, and they should cover the handicap.

Tyrone vs Down

Down came into this championship with a strong reputation, but they were severely tested by a very ordinary Antrim team and they could find tonight’s game a bridge too far. The injury to Ronan O’Neill however is a blow to Tyrone and their would be some concern about their full back line, which will be well tested tonight. Of the four games taking place tonight and on Saturday, this is the one best left aside, purely because Down should be a lot better than we’ve seen so far, but it would be a speculative play to bet on the basis that they will either match their potential or merely reproduce their first round form.

Cavan vs Derry

On the face of it, Cavan’s six-point win over Armagh in the first round in Ulster was the most impressive performance of this competition so far. They blew away a very highly rated Armagh team and now they take the favourites’ tag into tonight’s fixture with Derry. However reports subsequent to that game suggest that not all was well in the Armagh camp at the time with a rift existing between senior and under-21 management, while injuries have hit Cavan hard since then. Captain Barry Reilly, freetaker Paul O’Connor and midfielder Killian Brady are all set to miss out tonight and Cavan simply don’t have the depth to replace players of that calibre. One way or another they wouldn’t be in for an easy game tonight against a very strong Derry team and both Boylesports and Hills have cut Derry already. However Boylesports haven’t gone far enough, so take the 7/4 still on offer while you can.

Roscommon vs Sligo

Roscommon came out of the tough side of the draw while Sligo have really proved nothing in a facile win over a Leitrim team shorn of their best forward, but even so the odds here could be a little lopsided. Roscommon’s style of football involves very fast transferring of the football from one end of the field to the other, carrying the ball and avoiding the tackle. They could be vulnerable to a side that packs the scoring zone and forces them to shoot from distance and Sligo may well be that team. Pat Hughes, David Maye and James Clarke are all dominant players in the diamond sector and while Pat Hughes has a huge task on his hands against Roscommon captain Paddy Brogan who was one of the stars of the show against Mayo, midfielders Niall Daly and and Fintan Kelly don’t look entirely natural in these roles and would possibly be happier elsewhere. Powers go 7/2 about a win for Sligo here and that could be a little generous in a game where Roscommon could easily start the match with a touch of complacency.

Under-21 Championship Recommendations

Dublin vs Louth: Dublin -5pts @ 5/6 (Ladbrokes)

Cavan vs Derry: Derry @ 7/4 (Boylesports)

Roscommon vs Sligo: Sligo @ 7/2 (Powers)

For the senior footballers and hurlers all across Ireland we’ve a long way still to go until the business end of the season, but already the under-21 championship is beginning to take shape and tonight we’ll get an even clearer picture as to which counties have some of the best prospects coming up through the ranks. Today we’ll preview the four quarter finals taking place in Ulster, where the meeting at Breffni Park tops the bill.

Cavan vs Armagh

As Galway and Wexford have proved so far, reigning under-21 champions means very little when panels change so much from year to year. Cavan retain a lot of their stars from last year but their success in 2011 owed a lot to the attitude and workrate that they brought to every game rather than any significant amount of class. Certainly the All Ireland final against Galway illustrated Cavan’s deficit in that regard and while that may seem unduly critical, it’s actually a huge endorsement of the players themselves that they used their potential so well.

However there is a real danger that they will be outclassed again tonight. Armagh have added plenty of fine young talents to their All Ireland Minor team from 2009 and up front in particular, they look devastating. Under-21 teams don’t always deliver on their potential but if this one does, they’ll win with a bit to spare and could so the whole way through Ulster.

Down vs Antrim

Three years ago there wasn’t a lot to call between Down and Armagh in the Ulster minor final but Down’s players haven’t quite progressed to the same degree, and while Antrim are not usually one of the front runners at this grade, they still have enough raw material in the squad to suggest that they could be competitive. Still, though odds of 1/8 make no appeal, Down should advance here.

Derry vs Monaghan

Monaghan pulled off a surprise win over Derry in last year’s championship and again they look like dark horses in this Ulster championship. There are some concerns about their full back line but they’ve played some good football in challenge matches and will travel to Celtic Park with plenty of cause for optimism. Very little has been said about Derry in the approach to this game and while they have had some promising footballers at minor level over the past three years, they don’t look like worthy odds on shots.

Donegal vs Tyrone

Donegal can call on some proven talent in players like Paddy McBrearty and Brick Molloy for this game, but Tyrone are clearly flying as evidenced by their facile win over Fermanagh, while the ridiculous delay in getting a management team in place in Donegal bodes poorly for the Tír Chonaill men. Getting to know each other is crucial at this grade, all the more so when players might never have met due to the huge distances between the west of the county and places like Inishowen, and it’s notable that Boylesports have already cut their price on Tyrone right in. Expect Paddy Power to follow, so the 5/4 about Tyrone minus two should be taken now, while you can.

Ulster Under-21 Championship Recommendations

Cavan vs Armagh: Armagh to win @ 8/11 (Ladbrokes)

Derry vs Monaghan: Monaghan to win @ 7/4 (Hills, Ladbrokes, Boylesports)

Donegal vs Tyrone: Tyrone -2 pts @ 5/4 (Powers)

The action continues to come thick and fast in the National Football League, with the big Munster Derby at Páirc Uí Chaoimh taking centre stage as the main attraiction. So, we’ll start our tour of the country by the Lee and look at the battle of the big guns down south.

Cork vs Kerry

You can have odds against about both teams here, with William Hill going after the Rebels and laying 5/4, while Ladbrokes take the opposite view and go 11/10 about a Kerry win in the Páirc. On form so far, Kerry look more likely to take the points. They had a poor outing in round 2 against Armagh but otherwise they’ve been consistently excellent and have all but secured their place in the semi-final lineup already. Cork look quite strong for this tie however with Pearse O’Neill back in the team and Donncha O’Connor and Colm O’Neill showing some potency up front. They found some form against Laois last time out and looked a lot more like themselves. Neither manager will want to give too much away here, so at the risk of getting splinters in our groin from sitting on the fence, this looks certain to be a tight game with little between them. Ladbrokes “Close Call” bet pays out if either side win’s by three or less, or if the game is drawn. 8/13 may look short but it would have paid out the last six times these teams faced each other – good enough for us.

Galway vs Tyrone

Backing Galway at odds on to win football matches is clearly not a good policy, but neither can the Tribesmen be written off when taking on better quality opponents. They dug deep to produce a big win over Meath last week and remain in contention for a promotion place, though they cannot afford to drop any more points this Sunday. Tyrone have been imperious in the league so far with a string of good results but Ladbrokes may be overdoing things by offering 9/4 about the home side. Galway are too good to be 9/4 in a league match against any division 2 opponent at home and while they are too inconsistent to be trusted at short prices – there is a reason we’re not taking the head start on the handicap – they can deliver big returns if you catch them on the right day.

Cavan vs Offaly

This Offaly columnist takes no joy in saying this, but the Offaly football setup is a mess right now and confidence could not be lower in the camp. The new management regime headed by Gerry Cooney has failed utterly to catch the imagination of the players and there appears to be no clear plan as to how the team can create scores. The blanket defensive system isn’t fitting in while up front, small forwards like Nigel Dunne and Bernard Allen, though on form, are isolated against bigger opponents. They’ve been shocking throughout the league and there is no reason why tomorrow would be any different.

Clare vs Leitrim

Clare have made a very solid start to division four this year, and while they dropped points in Enniskillen, wins over Carlow, Limerick and Waterford have set them up to make a real push for that elusive promotion spot. Leitrim have been their usual dogged selves and they got the rub of the green against Carlow when a contentious goal from forward Ray Cox was allowed despite a strong whiff of a square ball offence. Against a more freescoring side like Wicklow or Fermanagh, the Leitrim men could be a little bit short of firepower to go toe to toe, but Clare’s 1-17 against Waterford the first day out was largely down to the absence of the two O’Gorman brothers. Since then they’ve reverted to type and posted a dozen scores per game. You can get 11/10 about Leitrim with a two point start and while those couple of points are expensive, with Hills offering 12/5 about a straight win, it’s well worth it to keep them on your side and give yourself that extra safety net.

NFL Round 5 Recommendations

Cork vs Kerry: “A Close Call” @ 8/13 (Ladbrokes)

Galway vs Tyrone: Galway @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes)

Cavan vs Offaly: Cavan -2 pts @ 10/11 (Stan James/Betpack)

Clare vs Leitrim: Leitrim +2 pts @ 11/10 (Bet365, Hills)

Following on from yesterday, let’s continue our pre-Christmas rundown on the state of play of the various counties as they approach the start of the 2012 pre season. As before, the number on the left is their Starbets ranking, the number in brackets is where they are ranked in the betting for Sam Maguire in 2012, followed by our prediction for where they will be ranked this time next year.

25. Sligo (18 – Slight improvement)
It’s been quite the fall from grace for Sligo, who only eighteen months ago had just beaten Galway and Mayo and were odds on favourites to win a Connacht title. They let their chance slip against the Rossies in the Connacht decider, before collapsing against Down in the qualifiers and enduring a terrible season in 2011. Manager Kevin Walsh has some of the best individual defenders in Ireland playing for the Yeats county, while David Kelly is a fine scoring threat, but from 8 to 12 the team is weak and they need to find a lot of improvement this year. Division three should give them a chance to get off to a good start and gain some confidence, but they can ill afford to start slowly and need results sooner rather than later.

24. Cavan (25 – Significant improvement)

2012 is a massive year for Cavan football. The Breffni men have been in the doldrums (as opposed to the drumlins!) for too long now and manager Val Andrews knows that he needs to start turning things around. The success of their under-21 panel last year will provide an invaluable injection of fresh blood into the senior panel and while the poor performance of Cavan Gaels was a disappointment, if they can address issues in the wide defensive positions, they certainly have enough flair up front to cause teams real problems.

23. Tipperary (22 – slight disimprovement)

With new county champions coming from territory that usually doesn’t make a huge contribution to the county team and an All Ireland winning group of minor footballers, the long term prognosis for Tipperary football is very, very bright. However it could be a few years yet before things really start to improve and there is a real danger that too much will be asked of a lot of young footballers before they are ready to deliver. Barry Grogan’s incredible talent will keep them in touch in games but for now, Tipperary should be happy just to hold on to division three status and keep things ticking over for the next couple of years.

22. Louth (20 – Disimprovement)

Not unusually for Louth football, most of their best work was done in the Spring as opposed to the summer in 2011. They enjoyed a good O’Byrne Cup, they got off to a great start in the league but then started to stutter as the ground began to harden, even if they did muster up a big performance in the Division 3 final. However their deterioration continued in the championship and they could be about to learn the same lesson that Mayo did when John O’Mahony was elected to the Dáil – if a manager is working as a TD, he won’t be able to give his county team as much attention as they deserve and results will reflect that.

21. Westmeath (19 – Slight disimprovement)

After deservedly securing promotion in 2011, they may feel hard done by to still be ranked in the bottom half, but it’s hard to ignore two very poor championship performances against mid-ranking opposition. Some very good young footballers have emerged from the Lake County in recent years, even if one of the best of them (John Heslin) is out in Australia, but Denis Glennon has yet to prove that he can carry the team in the same way that Dessie Dolan has done for over a decade now. There is potential for improvement here, but it’s going to be a tough campaign in division 2 and the ominous presence of Dublin in their quarter of the Leinster draw probably limits their capacity, in Leinster at least.

20. Offaly (21 – Slight disimprovement)

They mixed the good with the bad in the league, digging out three crucial away wins while losing out on promotion due to bad performances against Westmeath and Tipperary. This trend continued in the championship with two awful performances and one very impressive one against Monaghan. For 2012, their fate will depend on how their twenty-something footballers grow up in the absence of Ciarán McManus, who played some of his best football last year. The Tubber midfielder was a huge presence in the Offaly dressing room and a new look team is likely to take the field this year – which could be no bad thing, though they will meet more than a few bumps along the road.

19. Antrim (24 – Slight improvement)

The Ulster championship draw has worked out very nicely for Antrim and they’ll rightly believe that they have every chance of making real progress next year. Some of the best young footballers in Ulster should be breaking into their squad very soon and if they can keep a lid on some of the more explosive characters in the dressing room, they have a lot of the ingredients needed to make progress.

18. Longford (23 – Slight disimprovement)

Unquestionably the most improved county in 2011, Glen Ryan has stamped his authority on this team but at the same time allowed the natural, attacking style of the players in the county to flourish. The issue now will be building and sustaining the progress that was made since he took over, a task which should be made easier by the existence of a few very bright young prospects that were part of the Leinster minor winning team in 2010. The old reliable attackers like Brian Kavanagh and the Bardens aren’t getting any younger, but they have some excellent man marking defenders and a lot of good energy around the middle of the field. Their first round battle with Laois in Pearse Park already looks like it could be one of the most enjoyable games in the championship.

The four senior games may be capturing the national attention and the vast majority of the GAA column inches this week, but with three long odds on favourites and Kildare also expected to win (by this column at least!) punters searching for a closely contested tie will have to look instead to the minor ranks and the four upcoming All Ireland quarter finals.

The headline fixture is the meeting of Dublin and Cork in O’Moore Park on Monday, and it’s fair to say that all previews of this game will focus on the same thing – that this Dublin team are flying under Dessie Farrell, and that they should win well.

They may do, but if Cork have Conor Dorman back to fill their full back berth, the young Rebels will be a much better team than the side that lost so tamely to Tipperary in the Munster final. Cork spent far too much time in that Munster decider chopping and changing their alignment in their back line and against a competent team like Tipperary, that was unforgivable. Dorman faces a huge task taking on the wonderfully talented Ciarán Kilkenny, however if he can curtail the young dual star, Cork will have gone a long way towards securing a win here.

Dublin are probably the best team left in this championship, but people forget that these are teenagers, who are invariably prone to bad days. 4/11 is too short to consider a bet on the Dubs against a Cork side that are capable of an upset.

The other Leinster vs Munster clash sees Tipperary taking on Meath and after putting both Cork and Kerry to the sword, despite trailing Kerry by ten points early in the game, this Tipperary team have more than proved their worth. Meath limped through to a Leinster Final largely due to landing on what was by far the easier side of the draw within their province, and they look to be comfortably the weakest side still in the competition. They should have no answer to TJ Ryan, who is one of the most promising talents in the entire competition, and if Ladbrokes release a handicap by Monday, it would be well worth backing Tipperary to cover.

The meeting of Cavan and Galway is one of the trickiest games to call, simply because Galway underachieved so spectacularly in the Connacht final. Word out west is that this team is very fast and fluid and they were simply unable to get going in the miserable conditions that prevailed on Connacht Final day, however the absence of any notable scalps so far this year is a worry. Some wonderful footballers from St Jarlaths have a lot to offer the teenage Tribesmen, but Cavan probably should be slight favourites based on a great performance in the Ulster final and a wonderful result against a hotly fancied Tyrone team in the Ulster semi-final.

The best value bet of the week looks to be Roscommon minors, 8/11 to overcome Armagh in Croke Park on Saturday afternoon. Ross Shannon has moulded a wonderful group of footballers in Roscommon this year and more than a few pundits within the county feel that this group is at least as good as the All Ireland winning team of 2006.

They’ve got plenty of size and power, but they still play a fast and effective style of football that should prosper in the open spaces of Croke Park. This Roscommon team have actually played in Croke Park already this year and that experience will stand to them, however more than any other factor, it’s simply hard to ascertain why Armagh are so highly rated. They accounted for Down in the Ulster semi-final and since big things were expected of Down this year, that result saw them rocket up the betting – however they failed to score for the entire second half of the Ulster Final and don’t look potent up front.

Roscommon just look to be a good cut above and at 8/11, they represent the best value bet of the eight teams playing this weekend.

The first round of the qualifiers is a unique test for punters in that it is often a test of the ability to read minds and mindsets as much as it is a test of the ability to read footballing skill and attributes.

Most of the match ups usually lack the local rivalry element that add a little bit of heat to the encounter, and in many cases players are often more concerned about catching a flight to America, or perhaps even getting back to their clubs and getting on with domestic affairs, than they are with prolonging a county season that is often going nowhere to begin with.

Either way, here’s Off the Ground’s assessment of the eight football qualifiers taking place tomorrow.

London vs Fermanagh

This column’s honest assessment is this – it’s impossible to say what the right price is, except that 1/2 Fermanagh and 15/8 London, as Ladbrokes have chalked up, is simply not it. This was not the draw Fermanagh wanted at all, on any level. They have one of the smallest budgets on the intercounty circuit and a €20k trip to London was not what the doctor ordered at all. With London on a high, the general perception is that Fermanagh are ripe for the picking, and the money has reflected this, piling into the Exiles who were as big as 5/1 in places when the odds were first released.

If Fermanagh buy into all this, then London should be favourites. If Fermanagh travel over here determined not to become the first county to lose to London in the qualifiers and believing that there is still something to be salvaged out of this season, then they are 1/6 shots. After all London are still the same county that manage one league win over anyone other than Kilkenny every couple of years. As we said, 1/2 is not right, but ascertaining the correct odds is another matter entirely. The lot of the compiler is an unhappy one here.

Fermanagh minus three at 6/5 looks like the best bet here, given that even though their best players are at home, those that travel still have a lot of pride in the jersey and won’t lie down, and London have lost the element of surprise.

Clare vs Down

Clare have better footballers than they are often given credit for, and if they smelled blood in the water, they would be a real dangerous outsider. Unfortunately Down is simply too big a target, they needed a Cavan, Sligo, Offaly or Antrim to come to Ennis. The retirement of John Clarke, the injury to Danny Hughes, uncertainty over the defensive credentials of the half back line, all these issues still have to be addressed by James McCartan, but they won’t be solved this week. Either way, Down will win here and probably cover the spread in the process.

Louth vs Meath

Remember all that stuff in the first paragraph about how qualifiers often lack the bite due to counties meeting that have no axe to grind? Well scratch that for this one.

It’s a huge pity that this tie couldn’t take place in Louth, because this could have been a humdinger of a tie if it was played in Drogheda with supporters hanging from the rafters, baying for Royal County blood. That wasn’t possible, but even so Louth could be in with a chance here.

Much of the discussion after Kildare’s Leinster quarter final win over Meath centred on Kildare’s inability to shoot, which was fair comment but still missed the point from a Meath perspective. Meath won 50% of the primary possession in that game at least, and yet they had less than half the number of chances as Kildare.

Meath simply don’t know how to turn possession into scoring chances under Banty and a Meath team playing possession football is a round peg trying to fit into a square hole – it’s just not natural. Paddy Keenan can spoil the midfield at least, he won’t meet anyone as good as Brendan Murphy here, and while the Louth half forward line is hugely underwhelming, if Meath turn over ball the same way as they did against Kildare, then Lennon, Maguire and Rooney will get chances.

Louth being Louth, a heartbreaking defeat is always possible, so 6/5 about Louth plus two is the best play.

Offaly vs Monaghan

Even as an Offaly native, calling this one is tough. Offaly have the players to give Monaghan a tough time in Tullamore, but banking on them to be in the right mindset to do so is a risky game. The Wexford game hurt this team and management badly, and subsequent events that have accused them of being good-time-charlies can’t have gone down well either. In many counties that would lead to a backlash, but sometimes backlashes in Offaly don’t always work out how one would imagine. They often take place far away from the field of play.

Anton Sullivan is a huge loss and while the team named is certainly not that which will start, the withdrawal of John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan robs Tom Cribbin of several options so there won’t be that many surprises.

If Offaly get goals, this could be close, but they’ll need the rub of the green because they have proven that they can’t overcome any bad luck in the middle of games.

Laois vs Tipperary

The accepted wisdom regarding this fixture is that Laois were going the right way under Justin McNulty, they just overdid the defensive play and got blown away by a strong Dublin team. That’s as may be, but Tipperary played a strong Kerry team and got no luck, so it’s very early to say that they are way off the pace. Tipperary are a solid division three team, no better, no worse, while Laois are a cut above that. However the Laois half forward line is desperately short on scoring power and there remain question marks over the form of both Kingston and Tierney. Laois should win, but 1/3 with Ladbrokes is way too short. Instead, take even money about less than 28.5 points in the game. It’s hard to see either side scoring fifteen points in this game, never mind both of them.

Cavan vs Longford

It says a lot that despite all the comments directed at the problems in Leinster football, one of the weakest counties in the province is favoured to win away from home against an Ulster team who would probably be regarded as no worse than seventh in the northern province right now. This is a great fixture for the locals who share a keen rivalry but rarely get to meet on the field. Longford to win is the accepted wisdom, but it mightn’t be that simple. No bet here, there’s just too many talented forwards on that Cavan team who could hit form at any time.

Wicklow vs Sligo

What looked like a reasonable assignment for Sligo when the fixture was drawn up has grown more and more difficult as their list of absentees has extended. Johnny Davey and David Kelly are unable to return, Ken Sweeney has followed Keelan Cawley out of Ireland, Brendan Curran and Alan Costello are suspended and all in all Sligo look to have their work cut out for them. Ladbrokes appear to be of the same mind here, offering Sligo at a best price of even money, while only giving 11/10 to Wicklow backers. In a neutral venue, with both sides at full strength, Sligo would be 2/5 here – right now, Wicklow probably deserve narrow favouritism and would be the tentative call.

Antrim vs Westmeath

Two sides that were desperately poor in the first round, but the managers have taken a very different approach to this qualifier tie. Liam Bradley has picked the same Antrim side as started against Donegal, while Pat Flanagan has reverted to type with a very defensive alignment, including two wing forwards who would usually be known as defenders. The other side of this is that the selection of Denis Corroon as a wing back is an unusual one, but one that Gary Connaughton could look to target with kickouts.

The Westmeath hurlers would happily testify as to how difficult it is to play an away fixture in Belfast, so far from home, however the 13/10 makes plenty of appeal even so. Dessie Dolan and Denis Glennon is a fine inside forward pairing and while they were out-gunned against Wexford, Antrim simply don’t have the same scoring power to match them blow for blow. Another low scoring battle could be in prospect here, but we’ll give the tentative nod to the outsiders to sneak it. In fact Westmeath to win by 1-3pts would be our favourite winning margin bet of the week.

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