Following on from yesterday, let’s continue our pre-Christmas rundown on the state of play of the various counties as they approach the start of the 2012 pre season. As before, the number on the left is their Starbets ranking, the number in brackets is where they are ranked in the betting for Sam Maguire in 2012, followed by our prediction for where they will be ranked this time next year.

25. Sligo (18 – Slight improvement)
It’s been quite the fall from grace for Sligo, who only eighteen months ago had just beaten Galway and Mayo and were odds on favourites to win a Connacht title. They let their chance slip against the Rossies in the Connacht decider, before collapsing against Down in the qualifiers and enduring a terrible season in 2011. Manager Kevin Walsh has some of the best individual defenders in Ireland playing for the Yeats county, while David Kelly is a fine scoring threat, but from 8 to 12 the team is weak and they need to find a lot of improvement this year. Division three should give them a chance to get off to a good start and gain some confidence, but they can ill afford to start slowly and need results sooner rather than later.

24. Cavan (25 – Significant improvement)

2012 is a massive year for Cavan football. The Breffni men have been in the doldrums (as opposed to the drumlins!) for too long now and manager Val Andrews knows that he needs to start turning things around. The success of their under-21 panel last year will provide an invaluable injection of fresh blood into the senior panel and while the poor performance of Cavan Gaels was a disappointment, if they can address issues in the wide defensive positions, they certainly have enough flair up front to cause teams real problems.

23. Tipperary (22 – slight disimprovement)

With new county champions coming from territory that usually doesn’t make a huge contribution to the county team and an All Ireland winning group of minor footballers, the long term prognosis for Tipperary football is very, very bright. However it could be a few years yet before things really start to improve and there is a real danger that too much will be asked of a lot of young footballers before they are ready to deliver. Barry Grogan’s incredible talent will keep them in touch in games but for now, Tipperary should be happy just to hold on to division three status and keep things ticking over for the next couple of years.

22. Louth (20 – Disimprovement)

Not unusually for Louth football, most of their best work was done in the Spring as opposed to the summer in 2011. They enjoyed a good O’Byrne Cup, they got off to a great start in the league but then started to stutter as the ground began to harden, even if they did muster up a big performance in the Division 3 final. However their deterioration continued in the championship and they could be about to learn the same lesson that Mayo did when John O’Mahony was elected to the Dáil – if a manager is working as a TD, he won’t be able to give his county team as much attention as they deserve and results will reflect that.

21. Westmeath (19 – Slight disimprovement)

After deservedly securing promotion in 2011, they may feel hard done by to still be ranked in the bottom half, but it’s hard to ignore two very poor championship performances against mid-ranking opposition. Some very good young footballers have emerged from the Lake County in recent years, even if one of the best of them (John Heslin) is out in Australia, but Denis Glennon has yet to prove that he can carry the team in the same way that Dessie Dolan has done for over a decade now. There is potential for improvement here, but it’s going to be a tough campaign in division 2 and the ominous presence of Dublin in their quarter of the Leinster draw probably limits their capacity, in Leinster at least.

20. Offaly (21 – Slight disimprovement)

They mixed the good with the bad in the league, digging out three crucial away wins while losing out on promotion due to bad performances against Westmeath and Tipperary. This trend continued in the championship with two awful performances and one very impressive one against Monaghan. For 2012, their fate will depend on how their twenty-something footballers grow up in the absence of Ciarán McManus, who played some of his best football last year. The Tubber midfielder was a huge presence in the Offaly dressing room and a new look team is likely to take the field this year – which could be no bad thing, though they will meet more than a few bumps along the road.

19. Antrim (24 – Slight improvement)

The Ulster championship draw has worked out very nicely for Antrim and they’ll rightly believe that they have every chance of making real progress next year. Some of the best young footballers in Ulster should be breaking into their squad very soon and if they can keep a lid on some of the more explosive characters in the dressing room, they have a lot of the ingredients needed to make progress.

18. Longford (23 – Slight disimprovement)

Unquestionably the most improved county in 2011, Glen Ryan has stamped his authority on this team but at the same time allowed the natural, attacking style of the players in the county to flourish. The issue now will be building and sustaining the progress that was made since he took over, a task which should be made easier by the existence of a few very bright young prospects that were part of the Leinster minor winning team in 2010. The old reliable attackers like Brian Kavanagh and the Bardens aren’t getting any younger, but they have some excellent man marking defenders and a lot of good energy around the middle of the field. Their first round battle with Laois in Pearse Park already looks like it could be one of the most enjoyable games in the championship.

The four senior games may be capturing the national attention and the vast majority of the GAA column inches this week, but with three long odds on favourites and Kildare also expected to win (by this column at least!) punters searching for a closely contested tie will have to look instead to the minor ranks and the four upcoming All Ireland quarter finals.

The headline fixture is the meeting of Dublin and Cork in O’Moore Park on Monday, and it’s fair to say that all previews of this game will focus on the same thing – that this Dublin team are flying under Dessie Farrell, and that they should win well.

They may do, but if Cork have Conor Dorman back to fill their full back berth, the young Rebels will be a much better team than the side that lost so tamely to Tipperary in the Munster final. Cork spent far too much time in that Munster decider chopping and changing their alignment in their back line and against a competent team like Tipperary, that was unforgivable. Dorman faces a huge task taking on the wonderfully talented Ciarán Kilkenny, however if he can curtail the young dual star, Cork will have gone a long way towards securing a win here.

Dublin are probably the best team left in this championship, but people forget that these are teenagers, who are invariably prone to bad days. 4/11 is too short to consider a bet on the Dubs against a Cork side that are capable of an upset.

The other Leinster vs Munster clash sees Tipperary taking on Meath and after putting both Cork and Kerry to the sword, despite trailing Kerry by ten points early in the game, this Tipperary team have more than proved their worth. Meath limped through to a Leinster Final largely due to landing on what was by far the easier side of the draw within their province, and they look to be comfortably the weakest side still in the competition. They should have no answer to TJ Ryan, who is one of the most promising talents in the entire competition, and if Ladbrokes release a handicap by Monday, it would be well worth backing Tipperary to cover.

The meeting of Cavan and Galway is one of the trickiest games to call, simply because Galway underachieved so spectacularly in the Connacht final. Word out west is that this team is very fast and fluid and they were simply unable to get going in the miserable conditions that prevailed on Connacht Final day, however the absence of any notable scalps so far this year is a worry. Some wonderful footballers from St Jarlaths have a lot to offer the teenage Tribesmen, but Cavan probably should be slight favourites based on a great performance in the Ulster final and a wonderful result against a hotly fancied Tyrone team in the Ulster semi-final.

The best value bet of the week looks to be Roscommon minors, 8/11 to overcome Armagh in Croke Park on Saturday afternoon. Ross Shannon has moulded a wonderful group of footballers in Roscommon this year and more than a few pundits within the county feel that this group is at least as good as the All Ireland winning team of 2006.

They’ve got plenty of size and power, but they still play a fast and effective style of football that should prosper in the open spaces of Croke Park. This Roscommon team have actually played in Croke Park already this year and that experience will stand to them, however more than any other factor, it’s simply hard to ascertain why Armagh are so highly rated. They accounted for Down in the Ulster semi-final and since big things were expected of Down this year, that result saw them rocket up the betting – however they failed to score for the entire second half of the Ulster Final and don’t look potent up front.

Roscommon just look to be a good cut above and at 8/11, they represent the best value bet of the eight teams playing this weekend.

The first round of the qualifiers is a unique test for punters in that it is often a test of the ability to read minds and mindsets as much as it is a test of the ability to read footballing skill and attributes.

Most of the match ups usually lack the local rivalry element that add a little bit of heat to the encounter, and in many cases players are often more concerned about catching a flight to America, or perhaps even getting back to their clubs and getting on with domestic affairs, than they are with prolonging a county season that is often going nowhere to begin with.

Either way, here’s Off the Ground’s assessment of the eight football qualifiers taking place tomorrow.

London vs Fermanagh

This column’s honest assessment is this – it’s impossible to say what the right price is, except that 1/2 Fermanagh and 15/8 London, as Ladbrokes have chalked up, is simply not it. This was not the draw Fermanagh wanted at all, on any level. They have one of the smallest budgets on the intercounty circuit and a €20k trip to London was not what the doctor ordered at all. With London on a high, the general perception is that Fermanagh are ripe for the picking, and the money has reflected this, piling into the Exiles who were as big as 5/1 in places when the odds were first released.

If Fermanagh buy into all this, then London should be favourites. If Fermanagh travel over here determined not to become the first county to lose to London in the qualifiers and believing that there is still something to be salvaged out of this season, then they are 1/6 shots. After all London are still the same county that manage one league win over anyone other than Kilkenny every couple of years. As we said, 1/2 is not right, but ascertaining the correct odds is another matter entirely. The lot of the compiler is an unhappy one here.

Fermanagh minus three at 6/5 looks like the best bet here, given that even though their best players are at home, those that travel still have a lot of pride in the jersey and won’t lie down, and London have lost the element of surprise.

Clare vs Down

Clare have better footballers than they are often given credit for, and if they smelled blood in the water, they would be a real dangerous outsider. Unfortunately Down is simply too big a target, they needed a Cavan, Sligo, Offaly or Antrim to come to Ennis. The retirement of John Clarke, the injury to Danny Hughes, uncertainty over the defensive credentials of the half back line, all these issues still have to be addressed by James McCartan, but they won’t be solved this week. Either way, Down will win here and probably cover the spread in the process.

Louth vs Meath

Remember all that stuff in the first paragraph about how qualifiers often lack the bite due to counties meeting that have no axe to grind? Well scratch that for this one.

It’s a huge pity that this tie couldn’t take place in Louth, because this could have been a humdinger of a tie if it was played in Drogheda with supporters hanging from the rafters, baying for Royal County blood. That wasn’t possible, but even so Louth could be in with a chance here.

Much of the discussion after Kildare’s Leinster quarter final win over Meath centred on Kildare’s inability to shoot, which was fair comment but still missed the point from a Meath perspective. Meath won 50% of the primary possession in that game at least, and yet they had less than half the number of chances as Kildare.

Meath simply don’t know how to turn possession into scoring chances under Banty and a Meath team playing possession football is a round peg trying to fit into a square hole – it’s just not natural. Paddy Keenan can spoil the midfield at least, he won’t meet anyone as good as Brendan Murphy here, and while the Louth half forward line is hugely underwhelming, if Meath turn over ball the same way as they did against Kildare, then Lennon, Maguire and Rooney will get chances.

Louth being Louth, a heartbreaking defeat is always possible, so 6/5 about Louth plus two is the best play.

Offaly vs Monaghan

Even as an Offaly native, calling this one is tough. Offaly have the players to give Monaghan a tough time in Tullamore, but banking on them to be in the right mindset to do so is a risky game. The Wexford game hurt this team and management badly, and subsequent events that have accused them of being good-time-charlies can’t have gone down well either. In many counties that would lead to a backlash, but sometimes backlashes in Offaly don’t always work out how one would imagine. They often take place far away from the field of play.

Anton Sullivan is a huge loss and while the team named is certainly not that which will start, the withdrawal of John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan robs Tom Cribbin of several options so there won’t be that many surprises.

If Offaly get goals, this could be close, but they’ll need the rub of the green because they have proven that they can’t overcome any bad luck in the middle of games.

Laois vs Tipperary

The accepted wisdom regarding this fixture is that Laois were going the right way under Justin McNulty, they just overdid the defensive play and got blown away by a strong Dublin team. That’s as may be, but Tipperary played a strong Kerry team and got no luck, so it’s very early to say that they are way off the pace. Tipperary are a solid division three team, no better, no worse, while Laois are a cut above that. However the Laois half forward line is desperately short on scoring power and there remain question marks over the form of both Kingston and Tierney. Laois should win, but 1/3 with Ladbrokes is way too short. Instead, take even money about less than 28.5 points in the game. It’s hard to see either side scoring fifteen points in this game, never mind both of them.

Cavan vs Longford

It says a lot that despite all the comments directed at the problems in Leinster football, one of the weakest counties in the province is favoured to win away from home against an Ulster team who would probably be regarded as no worse than seventh in the northern province right now. This is a great fixture for the locals who share a keen rivalry but rarely get to meet on the field. Longford to win is the accepted wisdom, but it mightn’t be that simple. No bet here, there’s just too many talented forwards on that Cavan team who could hit form at any time.

Wicklow vs Sligo

What looked like a reasonable assignment for Sligo when the fixture was drawn up has grown more and more difficult as their list of absentees has extended. Johnny Davey and David Kelly are unable to return, Ken Sweeney has followed Keelan Cawley out of Ireland, Brendan Curran and Alan Costello are suspended and all in all Sligo look to have their work cut out for them. Ladbrokes appear to be of the same mind here, offering Sligo at a best price of even money, while only giving 11/10 to Wicklow backers. In a neutral venue, with both sides at full strength, Sligo would be 2/5 here – right now, Wicklow probably deserve narrow favouritism and would be the tentative call.

Antrim vs Westmeath

Two sides that were desperately poor in the first round, but the managers have taken a very different approach to this qualifier tie. Liam Bradley has picked the same Antrim side as started against Donegal, while Pat Flanagan has reverted to type with a very defensive alignment, including two wing forwards who would usually be known as defenders. The other side of this is that the selection of Denis Corroon as a wing back is an unusual one, but one that Gary Connaughton could look to target with kickouts.

The Westmeath hurlers would happily testify as to how difficult it is to play an away fixture in Belfast, so far from home, however the 13/10 makes plenty of appeal even so. Dessie Dolan and Denis Glennon is a fine inside forward pairing and while they were out-gunned against Wexford, Antrim simply don’t have the same scoring power to match them blow for blow. Another low scoring battle could be in prospect here, but we’ll give the tentative nod to the outsiders to sneak it. In fact Westmeath to win by 1-3pts would be our favourite winning margin bet of the week.

After enjoying a star-studded weekend of football activity in which the five leaders in the betting for the Sam Maguire were all in action, the big ball games this weekend simply don’t jump off the page to the same extent, unless of course you hail from one of the eight counties competing to stay in their respective provincial races.

First up we’ll take a look at the two games in the general North West area, starting with the meeting of Donegal and Cavan at Kingspan Breffni Park.

On the face of it, reasons to fancy Cavan are very hard to come by. Donegal won division two this year, Cavan were somewhat fortunate to avoid relegation from division three. Donegal won an All Ireland under-21 title last year and have successfully integrated many of those players into their team right now, Cavan reached this year’s under-21 decider and have called upon several of those players, but it remains to be seen how they will bed in.

Donegal ended their run of four years without an Ulster championship win this year, Cavan have only gone through two years since getting a win but another way of looking at it is that since their 1997 success, they’ve only beaten Down, Fermanagh and Antrim in Ulster – the two traditional whipping boys, and Down, who have a poor record in Ulster and who for some reason, always struggle against Cavan.

Basically, by any measure, Donegal should be winning this game and even at 1/3, we’d probably side with them to do so. Donegal mightn’t be great viewing but they are solid banker material this week. However the handicap betting will be the market of choice for most punters and here the Magic Sign are 5/6 about Donegal winning by more than a three point head start. Before betting on this market, we would preach caution.

Donegal’s style of football hasn’t won them too many admirers south of Bundoran or east of Lifford, but it is effective and sometimes when a team is struggling to muster up commitment, any rallying point, even a unique style of play, can galvanise a group of players and create a sense of purpose that was hitherto lacking. However it cannot be ignored that Donegal were utterly dominant against Antrim, monopolising possession and suffocating their attack but despite this, were it not for Mark McHugh’s late goal, they would not have covered the handicap. Simply put, Donegal’s system is built to win games, but not to win by big margins. Donegal to win this game by 1-3pts at 3/1 is the bet here.

Moving west of Breffni Park to the wonderful Páirc Seán Mac Diarmada now and a longstanding rivalry of great depth gets renewed this Sunday when Leitrim take on Roscommon. Roscommon come into this game as Connacht champions but only the most utterly biased Rossie would disagree that their provincial title in 2010 was probably the handiest one won in gaelic football since the war. They beat London, then a Leitrim team who were still devastated and shattered from the death of Philly McGuinness, and caught Sligo napping in the final after the hype got into the heads of the Yeats County men. Even then they would have been reeled in had the game gone on two minutes longer.

Simply put, one Nestor Cup in those circumstances does not suddenly make a mediocre team into a good one but yet the forces of Roscommunism appear to be getting a bit carried away. The discussion boards are full of posters paying lip service to Leitrim but the bottom line is always about how Roscommon will win and it can be difficult for management to fight that kind of mindset if it spreads to the players, which it invariably will in the internet era.

Leitrim were greatly assisted by the injury to David Kelly in their first round win over Sligo, but they now have a home game to play with the carrot of a Connacht Final appearance dangling in front of their noses. No team is more certain to put in a competitive display than Leitrim and this game should go right down to the wire.

Ladbrokes “Close Call” bet is absolutely made for this fixture and 5/6 about a win for either team by a goal or less or indeed a draw is a great offer. Roscommon won this tie by five points last year but this is a better Leitrim team with a win behind them – a one or two point win would be a great result for them this year.

The start of the GAA championships on Irish soil (or indeed on soil of any kind) is upon us, with Antrim’s trip to Donegal getting the Ulster football championship underway on Sunday, while Laois play Antrim’s hurlers in the first Leinster hurling championship tie of the year on Saturday evening in O’Moore Park.

This week, with that in mind, we’ll have a run through all the provinces from an antepost betting perspective and see if we can’t at least draw a line through a few of the counties in a bid to isolate where the real value lies.

Since it’s Ulster football getting things underway this week, up north is as good a place as any to start with our football preview blogs. Tyrone are clear favourites and Ladbrokes have them at 2/1, and while this column believes that this Tyrone team is running out of road, it’s still difficult to oppose them in Ulster this year.

Monaghan were somewhat unlucky to suffer relegation from division one this season as they played quite competitively throughout, however Tyrone have something of an Indian sign over Monaghan in the championship in recent years, beating them three times out of three meetings since 2005.

Eamonn McEnaney unearthed some good young talent during the league campaign but they are still hugely reliant on a few key performers that are edging past their best. Their display against Kildare in last year’s fourth round qualifier illustrated just how much energy they had sunk into their Ulster championship campaign and while the change of management will have freshened things up somewhat, they still could struggle to find enough in the tank to get past Tyrone.  Tyrone in turn are stumbling in their attempts to find the higher gears, but they can scrape through to an Ulster final on memory alone and once they reach that stage, it’s well worth having them covered.

This weekend Donegal host Antrim and while Off the Ground suspects that there is real upset potential here, certainly at the odds of 9/2 being offered by Ladbrokes at the moment, only Donegal have any real long term potential out of this pairing. Their inside forward pairing of Michael Murphy and Colm McFadden is very difficult to stop simply because they can score with high or low ball in, while Jimmy McGuinness has developed an excellent work ethic throughout the rest of the team.

It’s been four years now since Donegal won an Ulster championship match despite getting plenty of home draws in that time so there will be a degree of mental fragility that still has to be worked out of the system. It’s for that reason that we’d suggest leaving the 13/2 for now and waiting until the semi final stages, when the banana skins have been avoided and they face into a game with Tyrone. They will still be no shorter than 4/1 or 9/2 at that stage, and it will make more sense to punt them there if at all. In honesty, four Ulster championship games can prove too much and it probably will be a battle too far for either of these teams.

The darkest of dark horses is Cavan, waiting in the wings for the winner of the match in Ballybofey. 28/1 is on offer about the Breffni men bridging a 14 year gap since their last Anglo Celt Cup and they’re not the kind of team that we like to oppose too readily. They have been consistent underachievers relative to their talent for some years now, and someday soon a manager will get that out of them and they will cause real problems for good teams.

It remains to be seen if Val Andrews is the man to do this but he has settled down their defensive structure, and up front Cavan possess some really top class forwards. They’ll take plenty of encouragement from their under-21 footballers who performed so well and right now this is a county that should be kept on side, simply based on the price.

On the other side of the draw, Fermanagh have no chance and not if the 33/1 was trebled would we suggest a bet on them. They cannot win an Anglo-Celt Cup with the kind of preparation that they’ve had this year.

Derry, their first round opponents, are another matter entirely however. They’ve completely slipped under the radar this year but with the exception of a horror show performance at home to Laois, they actually enjoyed a decent league campaign. Paddy and Eoghan Bradley are back in harness and playing well and while they don’t have as much depth as they might like, they can beat anyone in this province.

The problem here is the price. At 5/1, they are just too short to provide any real value. Even if we say that they are 1/10 to get through Fermanagh, that still makes them no bigger than 5/4 in each of the semi final and final – and that’s too short. Contenders, but no value.

Finally we have the big clash between Down and Armagh at the newly revamped Athletic Grounds, and this match features the best football team in Ulster and the value bet to win out – but those two teams aren’t the same.

Down are the best footballing side in the province and even though they can struggle to win possession around the middle, they have a craft and innovation about their play in the half forward line that is unmatched anywhere north of Listowel. Benny Coulter has become all the more threatening now that Martin Clarke has become the main man in the attack, while much like the Clare hurlers of the 1990′s, they have a supporting cast of forwards that are inconsistent, but yet on any given day each of Ronan Murtagh, Mark Poland, Ronan Sexton and Danny Hughes are capable of having a big day. If it’s not one, it’s another.

The problem is that as a lightweight side, by Ulster measures anyway, they can be muscled out of games and Armagh are just the kind of side to do that. It should not be forgotten here that amidst all the talk of how Ulster is the most open province in Ireland, it has been thirteen years since anyone other than Armagh or Tyrone won the title. These two counties know how to win and while they can sometimes be found out in the qualifiers, they have the resilience to dig out big results in tight provincial games. Gareth Swift is an All Star waiting to happen and with home advantage, Armagh can overcome Down and progress deep into this championship.

Overall, the best policy here is to place 50% of your total stake on Armagh at 8/1, 10% on Cavan just to be on the safe side, and 40% on Tyrone at 2/1 to ensure that you are covered in the event of one last big push from Mickey Harte’s men.

The phrase “out of sight, out of mind” is often aired in the context of long distance relationships, however it could also be said to apply to tonight’s under-21 football championship meeting between Tyrone and Cavan in Enniskillen. Tyrone have been gathering the headlines with their long running saga against Down, while Cavan have been patiently waiting in the wings after doing what they needed to do against Fermanagh and Donegal earlier in the competition.

Ladbrokes are making Tyrone the clear favourites here at 4/9 and are conspicuously short at that price. The Magic Sign taking a negative view on Cavan must always be taken seriously since compiler Neil Walsh is living in the heart of Breffni country and is invariably clued in on the goings on up there, but nevertheless this looks like a very short price in the absence of any negative news from the Cavan camp.

Any under-21 team will benefit from games however this group of Cavan footballers have played plenty of football together this year and have impressed more and more with every outing. They looked like a class act in the Hastings Cup, while in their most recent match against Donegal they put the Tír Chonaill men away in a very efficient fashion. After losing out on an Ulster title last year, there is real resolve to go one better here and 21/10 is a good price about Cavan securing their third win of the campaign in Brewster Park.

Tyrone’s biggest failing has been their inability to start games well and the double result bet of Cavan to lead at half time with Tyrone to win also makes some appeal, but in this instance Cavan might just be good enough to get over the line and hold off the late Red Hand surge.

Certainly it’s difficult to see either side winning this with plenty to spare so the “Close Call” bet that Ladbrokes are offering at 8/11 will also make plenty of appeal to some punters, however for this column we’re just going to stick with a straight bet on the outsiders.

The Munster minor football championship also throws in tonight however betting on minor games without some form on the table is a sure fire way to the poorhouse. This column will have plenty of minor recommendations throughout the year, but they’ll be few and far between until we get to see how the various counties are equipped at the teenage grade.

Potential betting landmines lie in wait for those seeking a profit on the final day of the National football leagues. Trying to grasp the thoughts of certain managers in their approach to this weekend’s match is anyone’s guess. Of course they want to finish on a high, but the thoughts of losing a star player in a dead rubber game is the last thing they want and it would be no surprise to see some fringe players getting a run. Maybe it’s best sticking with teams with something to play for. James Horan has already stated he will give some fringe players a run-out and with Monaghan holding slim survival hopes, it’s time to back the Ulster men. The absence of some key players is a worry but I’ve been impressed by the competitiveness of Eamon McEneaney’s men. Back Monaghan to win the match at 10/11.

Kerry and Down should be a cracking encounter with plenty of scores. I expect the Kingdom to come away with the win, especially as it looks like the starting 15 is beginning to take shape. The 4/6 on offer for over 28.5 points looks a good bet considering the forwards that will be on show. I’m struggling to find value elsewhere in Division 1 with the handicaps looking just about right.

Take Cork half time/full time at 4/9 and the 4/1 on offer for Galway to beat Dublin by 1-3 points in Salthill. Pat Gillroy’s men may have one eye on the final and face a Galway side that will be playing with a bit more confidence. Division 2 looks far more competitive this week with the clash of table toppers Laois and Donegal taking place in Portlaoise. Both teams have impressed under new management but it’s the hosts that I’m siding with this week. For me they have been slightly more impressive and I’ve slight reservations about some of Donegal’s wins. Back Laois at 10/11 to beat their Ulster opponents.

Meath are still to be avoided at all costs and Tyrone look a terrific -1 at 5/6. On form this shouldn’t be close. Sligo have been tipped by many shrewd observers but I just can’t see them beating Kildare on their home patch and back the Lillywhites to come out on top by 4-6 points at 4-6 and to cover the -2 handicap at 10/11. The 4/5 on offer for Antrim to score more than 12.5 looks a good bet considering the return of Paddy Cunningham. Looking down the Leagues Wicklow are the bet of the day -3 at 10/11 while Cavan and Louth should also prevail at 4/5 and 5/6 respectively.

A worthwhile treble involves Wicklow, Cavan and Kildare valued at around 9/4. Finally it may be worthwhile finding a goalscorer bet and take a chance with Kieran Donaghy grabbing the opening goal against Down at 15/2.

Now that the Irish punting public has bathed in bookmaker blood after an unprecedented day of six Irish winners at Cheltenham, the time seemed right to have a quick look at tonight’s under 21 football championship matches in Ulster – nothing is quite so much fun as playing with the bookies’ money after all!

The meeting of Down and Tyrone in Newry is the eye-catching fixture of the four, with Tyrone expected to go well this year in the eyes of most neutrals. Most of the 2008 All Ireland minor winning side are still on duty, while subsequent minor teams, including last year’s champions, have also added plenty of talent into the mix.

Despite this apparent abundance of footballing skill however, Tyrone’s form in preseason matches has been relatively poor, albeit with several of their leading names not available for selection. Generally speaking there has been a downturn in Tyrone football recently and as it is possible that we stand on the cusp of the real decline of Tyrone as a football force, they make little or no appeal at 4/6 away to a very dangerous Down team.

Down aren’t endowed with a wealth of senior experience, however they are very strong in the crucial diamond positions and they have a sharpness up front that will cause Tyrone problems. Tyrone are entitled to marginal favouritism but the feeling here at StarBets.ie is that they aren’t as well fixed as they could be and they should be swerved.

Cavan have had a very poor track record in this competition since the turn of the millennium however they did enjoy a good run to the final last year and have nine of the starters from that Ulster Final available again this year. They played some nice football in preseason competition and they will be widely fancied to come through tonight’s fixture.

All that said, 4/11 looks like a very skinny price. Fermanagh are going very badly at senior level but they have some good young players on duty tonight who have played some good football, while home advantage will stand to them too. With the seniors going so badly, there will be a lot of pressure on this group to deliver but at 5/2, they could be worth a small nibble.

Derry showed great resolve to come through a very tough test against Armagh in the previous round and the value of getting a game under your belt is huge at this level. Monaghan will feel that they have a good group of players here and while they will have their work cut out controlling the influence of players like Caolan O’Boyle, they have shown signs in preseason of having plenty of potential.

Monaghan’s win over Derry in 2008 at minor level is probably being factored in here too, though there are a few key absentees from that Monaghan minor side. The familiar surroundings of Inniskeen will also help, but from a betting point of view it’s the win over Armagh that swings our decision. Derry at 5/6 with Ladbrokes are the bet.

Finally reigning Ulster champions Donegal put their title on the line against Antrim and while Donegal must be respected, 2/7 is way too short. Antrim have a few very nice footballers in this team while it’s a completely revamped Donegal selection from last year. Mark McHugh is in great form and he’ll lead the Donegal charge but from a betting perspective, Antrim are the only call that could logically be made and at 3/1, they are the best bet of the night.

With three games played and four games to go for most teams in the national football leagues, this weekend’s games are truly pivotal. After this round we will see the first of the inconsequential games where some results will have no effect on the promotion or relegation prospects of the contestants.

This weekend I’m paying extra attention to teams who have not yet performed to their capabilities and are in need of a result to put some distance between themselves and the relegation trapdoor. Motivation is an unquantifiable concept, and I can’t tell you precisely how much its worth to any particular team, but if a result is more important to one team than another then we should take note.

The flip side here is that some teams may be considered to have over-achieved so far in this campaign. Us bookies are cautious with such sides and punters love to get their money behind a team that has been racking up the wins. Its arguably a fast track to blowing your betting bank however, such teams tend to offer significantly less value than a team that has proven quality but fewer points in the bag.

The meeting of Kildare and Laois in Division 2 this weekend fits the above scenarios like a glove. Laois have exceeded my expectations so far as they proudly boast three wins from three outings, while Kildare – preseason second favourites behind Tyrone for the divisional title – have disappointed to date.

Home wins over Meath and Antrim were followed up by a stunning and unexpected14 point victory in Derry which set tongues wagging around the country about how productive the Justin McNulty’s regime was becoming in Laois. Meanwhile McNulty’s old Armagh team mate managing Leinster neighbours Kildare, Kieran McGeeney, is doubtless in deep thought about why his team has failed to exercise the scoreboard operator beyond 11 points in three outings. Kildare’s league form has been patchy since the restructure of the divisons ahead of the 2008 season, but in the last two years they have done enough to stay in Division 2 while preparing for summer football. I expect them to up their game this weekend and take maximum points at home against Laois. Shop early for 4/5.

Limerick are another side who have yet to replicate last summer’s form in the opening rounds of the league. Successive defeats against Tipperary, Waterford and Offaly run contrary to the kind of form which has seen Limerick cause major problems for Kerry and Cork in recent times. At 8/11 Limerick can be expected to get the better of Cavan.

Punt On!

In an effort to make up the ground lost in the sub zero conditions the weekend before last, a full round of McKenna Cup fixtures are down for decision this Wednesday night, with Tyrone and Fermanagh each making their belated seasonal reappearance.

Already Ladbrokes have betting on the six games, offering strong favourites in four of the six ties.

Certainly the Magic Sign can’t be blamed for keeping Armagh very short, since St Mary’s College were really disappointing against Antrim while the Orchard men were relatively impressive in a high scoring game against Down. 2-15 to 3-11 is very impressive shooting for early January and while this column still retains a hunch that there will be a kick in the teaching students at some point, it probably won’t happen in the Athletic Grounds and one way or another, that hunch is becoming harder and harder to justify.

What cannot be denied however is that in the other section C game in Casement Park, Antrim pose a very live threat at odds of 6/5 against their neighbours to the South. Down, as is their wont, struck for goals at regular intervals against Armagh but for long stretches of the game they were outplayed, while many of their more established players are clearly still in Winter mode. This Down team is unquestionably a dangerous opponent and not one to be opposed lightly, however at the odds offered, only Antrim could be backed in any sensible staking plan.

In section B, it’s a statement of how weakened Monaghan are for this competition that they are underdogs at home to neighbours Cavan, who have very much played second fiddle to their rivals in recent years. However it’s hard to argue with the bookies running for cover until this falling market hits a bottom, so to speak. With so few recognisable faces in their lineup, Eamonn McEneaney is clearly using this competition to test out new players and they showed enough against Queens to suggest that he may have a few players with plenty of potential in there. Nonetheless winning this fixture is a different aspiration entirely and could be beyond the Farney county so this match is definitely best left alone. We’d almost suggest backing Cavan, except for the fact that a different selection policy could really change things.

Queens University against Derry however looks like the value bet of the week – 9/4 is simply too big about the college students in a match that genuinely could go either way. Derry manager John Brennan has a balanced squad with youth and experience, however after a good first half in Breffni Park his team allowed a mediocre Cavan team back into the game and could easily have lost the fixture if it wasn’t for a fisted Paddy Bradley goal to stop the rot.

Queens lack a dangerous inside forward and failed to get a score from their starting full forward line against Monaghan, however they are very strong at midfield and in the half forward line and can enjoy plenty of possession against Derry. This has the makings of a very tight game that will go down to the wire and as a result, 9/4 has to be the bet.

The Section A matches are unquestionably the hardest to decipher, with Tyrone and Fermanagh still to make their first appearance of the season. Fermanagh could be under-rated at 11/4 for their match against Donegal in Ballybofey, however there was a lot to like about the spirit in the Donegal camp in their win over Jordanstown and while a three or four point handicap bet might be appealing, the straight match betting is probably best left aside.

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