A quick glance at the prices on offer from Ladbrokes would suggest that Rhode and Clara are a long way ahead of the pack and in this regard, the Magic Sign have assessed the situation correctly. When Rhode surrendered their county title to Tullamore in 2007, it was notable that Tullamore weren’t the team that beat them, and when the town team entered the Leinster club championship, they ran aground against a good but limited Éire Óg side from Carlow. Last year, when Clara usurped Rhode, they did so by beating Rhode in the county final, before going on to prove their worth on the Leinster stage. Indeed had their first semi final against Portlaoise not been abandoned due to the heavy rainfall, there is every chance that Clara would have denied Portlaoise their Leinster crown and possibly gone on a longer run of their own.

These two clubs also met in a very spicy league match recently and Clara came off best by a single point, however that was with Niall McNamee absent from the Rhode line up. Anyone who was previously unaware of McNamee’s fantastic talent got a glimpse of it last Sunday with his role in the two Offaly goals against Meath and that was while playing with a severely limiting injury. At club level, in Offaly at least, he is almost unstoppable and his importance cannot be overstated.

Nonetheless the psychological aspect of last year’s county final defeat cannot be discounted. Unlike previous defeats where Rhode might have been caught on the hop, last September they were definitely second best and they lost out despite getting plenty of help from the referee on the day. To compound that with a second defeat in the league means that Clara right now have a mental edge on their rivals, probably enough of an edge to counteract Rhode’s slightly deeper pool of top quality players.

If this were a straight county final between the two clubs and odds of 8/11 and 11/8 were offered, as the current outright odds suggest would be the case, then those prices would reflect Rhode’s talent but not Clara’s resolve and inner belief. At the outright odds, a 2pt bet on Clara at 15/8 would be justified.

Looking down the field, potential outsiders are hard to identify. Tullamore’s win in the county hurling championship last year has invigorated hurling in the town, to the point that many dual players are giving the small ball game their first preference. Tullamore’s ability to take opportunities is unparalleled – the club rarely misses a chance to snatch a title when others drop the ball – but they have big problems down the spine of their team and lack star quality. That their best player is an intercounty hurler who rarely trains with the footballers says a lot.

Edenderry are improving under Peter Brady’s stewardship but have a long way to go and need to learn how to close out wins in tight games, while Gracefield have a terrible record at getting their best footballers out on the field. Ferbane will need to find a lot more scoring potential to really threaten the top teams, while Shamrocks missed a lot of chances to win titles when they had a very strong team out, it’s difficult to see them making an impact now with many better footballers not available for selection.

Tubber and Ballycumber have both been competitive in recent years, but neither of these two neighbours look like contenders either. Tubber are losing several players to emigration this summer, a bodyblow for a small rural club, while Ballycumber simply haven’t brought enough good younger footballers into the mix in recent years.

The one wild card is Walsh Island, Intermediate champions from 2009. The very name will evoke a lot of memories from football fans all over Ireland familiar with legendary names such as Willie Bryan, Richie Connor and of course Matt Connor associated with the famous hooped jersey. They’ve a good core unit and are very strong at midfield, an area where Offaly club football is notoriously weak. The phrase “in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king” certainly comes to mind. An injury or two to any of their key players will be enough to derail their campaign, but if they could keep fit and maybe avoid Rhode and Clara until the later stages, they have a settled team who might put themselves in a position to pull off a shock. The odds aren’t way off by any stretch of the imagination, but at 16/1 they are genuinely capable of beating the good sides, which is more than can be said for many other teams priced in or around that level. A 1pt bet on Walsh Island at 16/1, possibly with a view to laying off later, is well worthwhile.

Indeed for those who follow this blog and its recommendations, the Meath official’s decision was extremely welcome. Portlaoise had played with the advantage of a stiff but tricky breeze in the first half, and Clara were definitely the happier team going in at half time level pegging. Stephen Deehan’s point at the start of the second half was taken with the kind of relaxed kicking stroke that simply wasn’t an option in the first half, and with Thomas Deehan also playing extremely well in the inside line, Clara were definitely odds on to progress had the match played to a natural conclusion.

The refixture takes place this Saturday in Portlaoise, and the issue for those with a current position on the Leinster Championship outright, or indeed those currently uninvolved, is whether or not the market currently reflects the state of play of the three clubs involved. Clara were at least a match for Portlaoise last Sunday in the thirty five minutes of play that took place and their excellent use of foot passing over ranges of twenty and thirty yards really discommoded Portlaoise’s pressure defence. Portlaoise manager John Mulligan is unlikely to let the lessons from last Sunday go unheeded, but the evidence is stacking up that Clara are not just an unspectacular club team that pulled off a shock win over Rhode, but that they are right at home in this kind of company.

The bookmakers continue to view Clara as three point outsiders looking for a shock result this weekend, but this column is not so sure that this is the case. Portlaoise at 8/11 to win Leinster outright is way too short to justify punting after a shock to the system like this, particularly in the light of an excellent display from Garrycastle in Mullingar last Sunday. This column has bets running on Portlaoise at 6/4 and Garrycastle at 16/1, and bearing in mind that the Offaly champions still look very dangerous, a covering 1pt bet on Clara at 6/1 is definitely in order right now.

From an All Ireland perspective, our existing position on Corofin is perfectly healthy, however Garrycastle very definitely entered the list of potential contenders on Sunday. The poor standard of football on display in Munster was also a factor in this regard in that neither Kerins O’Rahillys nor Kilmurry-Ibrickane look strong enough to go the whole way, meaning that Garrycastle are probably the second most likely team after Portlaoise to reach the final from that side of the draw. Indeed Sunday’s football threw up the very real possibility that no Munster team will play in the All Ireland semi-final at all. Based on the form shown by the Kerry and Clare representatives, this year is the best chance Tír Chonaill Gaels have had to win a quarter final since they started lording the London scene, and in familiar territory in January, they could cause the Munster champions real problems.

Garrycastle would be underdogs in any hypothetical final since the odds of neither Corofin nor St Galls making the decider are few and far between, but at 14/1, it’s could be worth getting a small interest on the Westmeath men into the portfolio now. A natural distrust of Westmeath men in the latter stages of All-Ireland competitions, bred into all West Offaly Gaels from a young age, prevents Off the Ground from going on record and staking on this selection, but they have been handed a huge advantage now in that either Portlaoise or Clara will be going out for their third week in a row in the Leinster decider, while a win for Kilmurry-Ibrickane in Munster, also a distinct possibility, would also greatly shorten their All-Ireland price, were a victory for the Claremen come to pass.

Austin Stack Park in Tralee is one venue which has traditionally held up reasonably well in the face of adverse weather conditions, but unless the predicted rain for tomorrow fails to materialise, even that match could come under pressure. Having said all that, if the games do take place, then there may be a little bit of value in the goals markets that have been priced up.

Assuming that any games which do go ahead do so in very inclement conditions, it’s reasonably safe to say that there is unlikely to be any high scoring encounters. That said, wet and mucky conditions lead to considerably less points being scored, but the number of goals is not always affected in the same way. While the slower movement of the ball can take a toll in that it becomes much more difficult to hit teams on the break and create match ups with corner forwards going one on one with their markers, while heavy ground tends to suit the backsman anyway, different chances can come about from players making mistakes, struggling to catch or control high deliveries. The number of good goals scored is likely to be quite low, but that doesn’t always equate to a drop in the number of goals of any type.

With regard to using this information, the game that stands out by a mile is the meeting of Portlaoise and Clara, and the 10/11 available about more than 1.5 goals in this encounter. Portlaoise’s scoring statistics this season have been phenomenal and their attack is functioning exceptionally well, but equally a lot of Clara’s strength lies in their full forward line and they too could cause problems. Clara’s most recent win over Rathvilly broke a five game streak in which they scored at least one goal in every game, and while Portlaoise are an exceptional team, they are by no means exceptional at keeping out good goalscorers.

This is a game where both sides are more than likely going to get in for at least one goal, and at 10/11, the statistics definitely favour getting behind two or more goals in this match. A 2pt bet is recommended.

Now all we need is to finally get around to putting a roof over this country. It’s the infrastructure project that we’ve all been waiting for.