The decider in Kildare has already been discussed on these pages, and for all the reasons previously discussed, Carbury plus one point at 11/10 with Paddy Power remains our bet of choice for that fixture. Carbury have the edge on the sideline, they have the experience that they need and their forwards stepped up brilliantly in the semi final even though Eoghan O’Flaherty was kept relatively quiet. Taking the one point head start could be crucial in a game where the draw is a live contender, and at 11/10, there’s a lot to like about that bet.

Moving west to Offaly, and Clara will be expected to put Edenderry to the sword after a comprehensive defeat of Rhode in the county semi final. Edenderry are very much a coming force in Offaly and the club has been a shining example of how to respond to relegation positively. Despite a rich history, the Reds made the drop in 2006 but bounced back straight away, and are now reaping the reward of a renewed focus on their underage sides. They have an extremely young panel and only Basil Malone out of the spine of the team is over 24.

On Sunday however, they take on a Clara side that is a lot more advanced in their development. This is a Clara team that has gone toe to toe with Rhode over the past few years and never taken a backwards step against a good opponent. In the semi final they conceded an early goal and lost talismanic attacker Thomas Deehan to injury, but still powered on to overwhelm their opponents. They had the advantage of meeting Rhode on a day when Niall McNamee didn’t fire and Anton Sullivan was absent through injury, but it wasn’t the star names that won that game for Clara, it was massive performances from less heralded players like wing back Enda Dunne and centre forward Stephen Deehan. The only danger here for Clara is complacency, and if they avoid that, they should cover Paddy Power’s two point handicap with a bit to spare.

Moving up the N61 to Roscommon now, where St Brigids will be expected to win at their ease against Elphin, and they too look like solid plays on the five point handicap offered by Boyles and Ladbrokes. Elphin have surprised a lot of people by getting back to the Connacht final, but a lot of that is down to avoiding some of the bigger teams along the way. Many people regarded St Brigids’ win over Western Gaels as the real final in the county, and to win so easily against a good Western Gaels team suggests that St Brigids are right where they were last year – among the top five or six clubs in Ireland and head and shoulders above any of their rivals in Connacht. As the winter draws in their experienced campaigners will become more and more prevalent as the game slows down to meet them, while Elphin don’t have the inside line to threaten their one possible weak link – the full back line.

Finally over to Monaghan, where Latton at 10/11 with Paddy Power will be hoping to make their experience tell against a robust Scotstown group. For Latton this will be their fifth final in ten years, and their two point win over Clontibret earlier in this championship proves that they are still up there with the best of the county. Scotstown have a rich tradition and history but they are hugely dependent on Darren and Kieran Hughes, Darren to drive them on from either midfield or centre back, and Kieran to create and convert chances at full forward.

Latton struggled in their local derby against Ballybay in the semi final, the same Ballybay team that Scotstown beat easily earlier in the championship, but one poor game does not suddenly turn them into a poor team. The other bookies have Latton as 4/6 shots for this game and that looks like a more realistic appraisal of this fixture.

Top Tips:

Kildare – Cadbury v Athy: Carbury (+1pt) @ 11/10 (Paddy Power)

Offaly – Clara v Edenderry: Clara (-2pts) @ 10/11 (Paddy Power)

Roscommon – St Brigids v Elphin: St Brigids (-5pts) @ 4/5 (Boyles, Ladbrokes)

Monaghan – Latton v Scotstown: Latton @ 10/11 (Paddy Power)

The options available to GAA punters in recent years have increased exponentially, to the point that we now have bookmakers offering first and last goalscorer betting on non-televised county finals. It’s a brave  new world to say the least, and seeing as the bookies have gone to such lengths to provide this service, it’s only reasonable to look to exploit it.

As discussed yesterday, Clara and Edenderry square off against each other tomorrow in Tullamore, and Clara deserve favouritism for this match. Neither side have been scoring goals freely so far this year – both have scored five goals in seven outings, and since two county finalists are the two sides that have reached the top of the tree in the county this year, it’s logical to presume that they’ve met weaker opponents up along the line – though Rhode would doubtlessly contest that assertion. Remarkably, four of Clara’s goals have come from players that are unlikely to even start tomorrow’s match.

Still, neither side is built with goalscoring in mind, and an overall goals expectancy of 1.5 here is not unrealistic, which would suggest that the no goalscorer price should be as low as 11/4. Certainly the Paddy Power price of 7/2 about that selection looks decent.

But if goals do come, where will they come from? Obviously the full forward line will be the main source, and let’s look at the two full forward lines. First we have Edenderry, where you will have Derek Kelly at 15, who will pull deep and play as a third midfielder, and Mark Young, who will be the big physical presence looking to get out in front and kick points from range. Young is able to finish if he gets a chance and may be deployed late on to sit on the edge of the square as a target man, but that will only be if Edenderry are chasing the game. For the first 45 minutes only Stuart Cullen will look to slip his man and get in on goal – indeed many would argue that the young forward does it too often – so he stands out at 9/1 with Ladbrokes in the first goalscorer market.

On the other side of the ball, Clara’s atack is much more multi-dimensional, however their goals still come from one source – John Reynolds – more often than not. Their inside line of Reynolds, Graham Guilfoyle and Thomas Deehan are all immensely giften players who have played intercounty football, but Reynolds is by far the most likely goalscorer on current form. Guilfoyle is a twenty-year-old player who is slowly adding power to his pace and height, but he spent the summer in the States, losing a little of his sharpness in the process, and is now being deployed as the primary outlet for long balls. He will start from the penalty spot and run out to collect long deliveries, and while he should have the pace to turn his man, he’ll be facing an excellent man marker in David Hanlon and won’t get find it easy to do so.

Thomas Deehan was a similarly pacey player when he burst on to the scene in 2006, but he has lost that ability to beat a corner back and instead looks to use his accuracy to snipe points from between twenty five and thirty five metres out. His greatest asset now is his ability to get his shot away under pressure and to still deliver a high percentage return, but it’s been some time since he has scored a goal for his club and he offers no value at 13/2.

Reynolds may have only scored one goal this year, but against Rhode he got a couple of clear looks and instead chose to take his points, which was the correct thing to do at the time. He still can shake off defenders and remains a potent goal threat at intercounty, not to mention club level. At 13/2, he looks like the standout candidate in a Clara team that generally speaking, doesn’t offer a huge goal threat.

Top Tips:

Clara v Edenderry:

John Reynolds First and Last Goalscorer @ 13/2 (Ladbrokes)

Stuart Cullen First Goalscorer @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

No Goalscorer @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)

The draw between Dicksboro and Clara last week means that those two clubs have to do it all over again this Saturday at 2pm and just like last week, it’s impossible to pick a clear favourite here. The Boro will feel that they had every chance going in three points down at half time with a gale force wind to come, but some great battling hurling from Clara ensured another day out for both clubs.

Dicksboro looked slightly the classier team and even though narrow favouritism for Clara is justified, 8/11 is short and 6/5 Dicksboro would have some appeal to value seekers. Certainly 9/1 about a second draw between two very evenly match sides makes great sense.

Fenians’ win over Erins Own was the shock result of the first round, and a scoreline of 0-9 to 0-7 in a Kilkenny SHC match says it all about the quality of that game. The Johnstown club will be sure to battle to the end against St Martins this week, but even at 21/10 with Ladbrokes, we’re still going to pass. The wide open spaces of Nowlan Park mightn’t suit the older Fenians players and while we might be suggesting a speculative punt on the outsiders on a smaller club pitch, 2/5 is fair value about the favourites here.

Carrickshock did enough but very little more against Dunnamaggin in the first round and while they have a fine array of good hurlers in that club, it’s still asking a lot of them to turn over Ballyhale Shamrocks this week. At 7/1 we might be tempted – 7/2 is no value whatsoever about a team with at least six points to make up on form. Ballyhale should win well, and if there was a handicap bet available, we’d be suggesting they would cover. As it is, throw 1/5 into your multiple bets to boost the price.

James Stephens at 2/7 are another solid favourite that we simply couldn’t oppose. Graigue Ballycallan’s first round win over Tullaroan was a real banana skin fixture and the GBC men will be delighted to keep their championship hopes alive and take the threat of relegation off the table, but there’s a world between Tullaroan and the Village and that should be clearly illustrated this week.

At the end of the most complicated divisional and qualifier system in club hurling, the Tipperary senior hurling championship has a huge weekend in store also, with arguably the eight best teams in the county lined up to take part in the quarter finals in Semple Stadium.

The action begins with West champions Clonoulty/Rossmore taking on Nenagh Éire Óg, who are reported to be ravaged by injury coming into this tie. GAA injury reports are often best taken with a pinch of salt, particularly at club level where the jostling for non-favouritism can border on comic at times, but unless any of the readers of this column have the number of the Nenagh physio in their phone, trading them at 13/10 makes little or no sense.

Kevin Tucker, Hugh Flannery and Pearse Morris are all expected to miss this clash and if they do, it’s nigh on impossible to see Nenagh coming through against a very solid Clonoulty/Rossmore team. The big concern for Clonoulty/Rossmore is their long time without a competitive match – they won the West title on the 31st of July – but even so they get the nod for this one.

At 5pm Loughmore-Castleiney take on Thurles Sarsfields in a repeat of last year’s final, and they’ll fancy their chances of giving the Sars plenty to think about on their home field. Loughmore-Castleiney have six points to make up on last year’s form, but they’ll feel confident coming into this game as Mid Tipp champions, while Thurles Sarsfields are only now getting back into stride after an horrendous start to the year.

If this was a few weeks ago, we’d really like Loughmore’s chances at 11/4. As it is, the manner with which Thurles brushed aside Kildangan last weekend, even though they trailed by six points midway through, is ominous. The consensus within Tipperary is that an upset is possible here, but frankly, it certainly looks much less likely than the 11/4 price suggests, at least from our point of view.

The sole southern division representatives are Mullinahone, who have been nominated to represent the South in the absence of a champion. There isn’t enough room in cyberspace, never mind on StarBets.ie, to go through the ins and outs of South Tipperary politics, however the upshot of all this is that Mullinahone have come this far without really doing a whole lot this year. Eoin Kelly is a huge performer at this level but so too is Brendan Maher, and Ladbrokes could have got it right by making Borris-Ileigh the favourites here. Borris have injury concerns, but even so they could be the most well placed North board team to progress.

That’s not to say that we’re writing off Toomevara, but John O’Brien’s suspension is a huge blow and they face a really big test against quality opposition in Drom and Inch and so they could be the vulnerable odds on shot this weekend.

Toomevara came the closest of any club in Tipperary to knocking out Sarsfields last year, but Sars have never found it easy to overcome Toome in championship hurling and Pa Bourke’s late goal then deprived this column of a big priced win on that occasion. However Toome’s ability to run Sars very close doesn’t necessarily imply that they are the next best team in the county. They have plenty of talent certainly, and no shortage of fighting spirit, but Drom and Inch could be in for a big day this Sunday.

Seamus Callanan will have a huge say and will probably have to line out against Benny Dunne, and unless Dunne really outdoes himself, this could be a big day for Callanan and a big day for Drom and Inch. 7/4 is a great price, and by far the best outsider price of the weekend’s hurling.

Tomorrow night sees Magheracloone facing off against Scotstown in the first such battle of the weekend, with Ladbrokes marginally favouring Magheracloone at odds of 10/11. The 2010 county finalists started this year very poorly and looked to have fallen out of contention by the height of the summer, but driven by Damien Freeman and a few other senior players, they pulled themselves together, culminating in their excellent quarter final win over Clontibret.

It’s often difficult to follow up a big win over a team that you were not expected to beat with another victory over a less vaunted rival, and Scotstown certainly won’t make life easy for Magheracloone this week, but the return to these shores of Tommy Freeman gives the men in yellow a huge boost.

Freeman probably won’t start the game, but the ability to call on the star corner forward will be a handy trump card to play in the case of emergency, and his presence certainly should be enough to get Magheracloone over the line. Without him on the bench, 10/11 would still have been the better bet here, but it certainly seems as if the bookies are a bit behind the news here, and those odds should be taken.

Latton O’Rahillys are very short at 2/7 in the other semi-final, but they still should have too much for Ballybay – however the odds here seem to be correctly assessed.

The two Down semi finals are also taking place this week with Kilcoo and Burren both expected to reach the decider with little or no obstruction. Caolan Mooney is also available once again for Rostrevor having come back from Australia, but the money is already in for the two favourites here, and 3/10 is now the Ladbrokes offering about both favourites, the Magic Sign having gone 4/11 about both initially. Kilcoo’s lack of experience at this stage of the championship makes them the more vulnerable of the two favourites, but it would still be a huge surprise if a Burren/Kilcoo double didn’t pay out.

The Sligo senior football decider gets underway at 5pm this Sunday, with Tourlestrane narrowly favoured at 4/5 to overcome 2005 Sligo champions Coolera-Strandhill. The seaside club have been by far the most devastating attacking force in Sligo this year, and the big surprise is that it hasn’t even been all about their county player Alan Costello. Teenage corner forward Niall Murphy has been a revelation and his improved form is a big part of why Coolera-Strandhill have been scoring well and overpowering opposition defences.

Tourlestrane looked dead and buried midway through the group stages after losing Eamon O’Hara to long term injury and dropping a lot of points, but they’ve pulled themselves together and there was a lot to be said for their win over Eastern Harps after a replay. There will be no shortage of character and resolve in the green and gold jerseys of the South Sligo men, but you can’t substitute for class and Coolera-Strandhill should have the edge in that regard. The prices here look the wrong way round, 5/4 on Coolera-Strandhill should be 4/5 and as such they represent the best bet in this match.

The Offaly senior football semi finals combine to form an excellent Sunday double header in Tullamore with Edenderry and Rhode the favoured combination according to the odds.

Both Paddy Power and Ladbrokes have cut Edenderry already, but even at the 8/13 currently on the boards, take the Reds to overcome Gracefield and get back to their first county final in ten years. After a prolonged period of success between 1995 and 2001 when Edenderry played in five of the seven county finals and won four titles, things began to deteriorate for the club at the start of the noughties, culminating in their relegation to intermediate level. A lot of work went into the underage structures in the club and after bouncing back to senior with a few new players to the fore, they now have a young, mobile team that lacks star names but still should be well able to stretch Gracefield out of their comfort zone in O’Connor Park.

The battle between Richie Dalton and Niall Smith at midfield will be crucial – Smith is a fine fielding midfielder, but if Dalton can pull him wide and force him to do a marking job, Gracefield will be robbed of their main source of possession and possibly will be exposed to players running from deep positions. A wet day and bad conditions is the main concern here, but even with that risk in mind, 8/13 is a good price.

The battle between Rhode and Clara has the potential to be one of the best games in the country this weekend, as these two clubs played out excellent county finals in 2009 and 2010, Clara winning by a point in 2009 and Rhode coming out on top by the same margin last year, when Niall McNamee gave an exhibition of scoring in O’Connor Park. McNamee is carrying a long standing groin injury but still has been outstanding throughout this championship. Rhode have won all six matches they’ve played this year without playing well, solely on the back of his brilliance and unless Clara come up with a way of stopping him, they will become victim number seven.

Clara have all their players available for the first time this year, including J1 traveller Graham Guilfoyle and injury victim Scott Brady, but they’ll need to click in order to put Rhode under real pressure. On the basis that they haven’t done so yet this year, 21/10 is just a touch too short to justify a speculative bet this week.

This particular post will focus on Offaly, since unsurprisingly it is the championship that this writer is most familiar with, and many accum punters looking to put together a bet will certainly be looking at Rhode, 1/4 to beat Ferbane, and Clara, 2/7 to beat Walsh Island, as a part of their portfolio for this weekend. Certainly Ladbrokes have a good few games to choose from in their extensive list, and whatever about Rhode, it could be worth skipping Clara and looking elsewhere.

Both sides have key players over in America, but the importance of Brian Connor to Walsh Island cannot be overstated and his absence is the most significant piece of team news. Walsh Island have little or no reserve strength and the big midfielder is a dominant influence on the club scene, one that they simply cannot adequately replace. Having said that, Clara are missing several players of their own, including, most significantly, Scott Brady, who sustained a knee injury in the league semi final against Ballycumber.

Despite having an enviable array of talent, something is not quite right in Clara at the moment and they are oscillating wildly between playing some very stylish football and simply not hitting the right notes at all. Their recent results include a 2-7 to 1-4 defeat to Ballycumber in the league semi final, a 0-21 to 1-5 win over Walsh Island, and a 0-6 to 1-12 loss to Erin Rovers. These aren’t the results of a club playing consistent football, and while they could win with plenty to spare, they represent a very dangerous 2/7 shot this week. Ladbrokes are 3/1 about Walsh Island and within Offaly, that bet is proving very popular this week. Clara should pull through, if only because their loss to Gracefield in the previous round has put them under pressure, but it’s not a betting proposition.

Rhode at 1/4 make a lot more appeal, simply because no matter what injury or loss of form the rest of the team endures, they still have Niall McNamee in their ranks and no club in Offaly has the kind of defender capable of curtailing his influence. Ferbane came close to causing an upset when these two sides met in the quarter final last year due to their ability to nick goals, however Niall’s brilliance still pulled Rhode through and it can do so again.

That match on Sunday evening is followed by the fixture between Edenderry and Tullamore, a game that promises to be a real season-defining clash for these two clubs. Edenderry football club fell on some hard times in the middle of the last decade and they even dropped down to intermediate level briefly, but as is often the case, relegation was the catalyst for the club to begin rebuilding and to start working with the next generation of footballer. They’ve had a steady stream of decent minor teams and in the past couple of years they’ve always been competitive, even if they’ve lacked the ability to close out tight games.

Tullamore on the other hand have had some big blowouts and have looked in a really bad way on several occasions in the last few years, but they are masters at finding a way to win. While they cannot seem to beat Rhode, if someone else manages to do that job for them, more often than not they end up as the team to capitalise.

This year however things appear to have fallen apart in spectacular fashion in the town. Manager Benny O’Brien left his role after deciding that his players weren’t willing to make the commitment – one too many training sessions with single figure attendances – while they were by far the most heavily hit club in Offaly in terms of emigration. Many of those departures were only temporary, but they are a pale shadow of the side that reached successive county finals not long ago. County under-21 footballers John Moloney and Michael Brazil have agreed to cut short their summer in New Zealand to come back and help out the Blues this week, but with Shane Dooley still over in New York, it’s hard to see where the scores will come from. Shane’s exploits on the hurling field are well known all across Ireland, but he has also been one of the top three forwards in Offaly club football for the past four or five years, and without him Tullamore simply lack scoring power.

Tullamore have plenty of talent still available to them, but Edenderry look to be in a lot better shape right now and could very easily be coming into this game as league champions. Ladbrokes make them 10/11 this week and while their lack of goalscoring is a worry, they still should compound Tullamore’s misery on Sunday evening.

After approximately eighteen months of learning the ropes with the telephone betting and online teams, I joined the odds compiling department and began working on GAA pricing, under the watchful supervision of a Meathman who managed risk in a style not dis-similar to the footballing personality of his county. He understood the game instinctively and respected his opponents, but if anyone breached the bookmaker’s defences to score, they were marked out of the game from then on. It was as if Mick Lyons was at the helm.

The general attitude to GAA betting at this time was very conservative all across the industry. Bets on big championship games and outright bets on provincial and All Ireland titles were accepted with good grace, but betting on club matches before the All Ireland final was unheard of, while national league games were actually offered on a “minimum trebles” basis, designed to make the product unattractive.

That ridiculous stipulation did not last long, but it’s a far cry from today, when one can bet on round robin games in club championships. Ladbrokes currently offer betting on Meath, Dublin and Offaly club matches and it’s definitely a punter’s paradise with so many options. Picking winners is never straightforward, but the more matches we have to choose from, the better chance we have of betting profitably.

Taking the Offaly SFC first, since it is the one nearest and dearest to this writer’s heart, the outright betting is essentially a write off. There is little to choose between Rhode and Clara, as Ladbrokes have established, and it’s almost impossible to see a winner coming from anywhere else.

Tullamore have lost John Moloney and Michael Brazil – two of the best under-21 footballers in the county – to emigration, while Kevin Williamson is concentrating on soccer with Athlone Town. All three of those players would be in the top 50 overall in Offaly, and no senior club can bear that kind of loss, much less a club with ground to make up on the two front runners.

Ferbane, my own club, have a great group of minor footballers and look to be moving in the right direction, but the number of dual players is a problem and it’s a big ask to win a county senior title with no county panellist. They, along with a number of other clubs, could conceivably reach a county final if luck went their way, but there is no value at 8/1 outright.

Tubber are a wild card at 20/1 as they have a wonderful community spirit and two top class players at different stages of their career in Ciarán McManus and Bernard Allen, however they probably lack the depth required. They could be a good each way punt, but in the tougher group of the two, they are unlikely to dodge the big guns for as long as they need to.

It’s ultimately between Rhode at 5/4 and Clara at 6/4, and with Graham Guilfoyle currently lined up to head out to the Gold Coast Suns on a trial basis, Rhode have to be the narrow call here.

Looking at the match betting now, and the game that jumps off the page is the meeting of St Rynaghs and Gracefield in O’Connor Park on Saturday evening. Gracefield are a traditional football club taking in the Offaly side of Portarlington and were the first club to win the Leinster club championship.

However despite regularly providing one or two players to Offaly county sides at every level, the club team has underperformed spectacularly in recent seasons. Karol Slattery and Niall Smith should dominate club games at centre back and midfield respectively, but they rarely do and the club has been bedevilled by emigration.

Rynaghs are more well known as a force in the hurling world, and they had more than a few narrow escapes on their way to winning the intermediate football championship last year, but they have got an extremely capable and dependable backline, along with some of the brightest young prospects in the county.

Gracefield have got badly beaten in their last three league games, losing by a combined total of 29 points, and while they have some very talented footballers, they have struggled to pull things together this season and have essentially picked up where they left off in 2010, when they just about edged out St Brigid’s to avoid the drop.

If both sides had everyone available Gracefield would be the better bet here but they have several key forwards in foreign countries, while Ciarán Kiely has transferred out to the Downs in Westmeath. They will improve as the championship goes on but for now, and at the 11/8 posted by the Magic Sign, St Rynaghs have to be nominated as the better betting option.

Starting in Offaly, obviously enough for any proud Offaly man, Rhode and Clara remain favoured to contest the Dowling Cup in two weeks time, though the odds for an upset vary hugely from one game to the other. Rhode are a very short 1/6 to overcome Shamrocks, while Clara are a much juicier 1/2 to overcome Tullamore. Looking first to tomorrow evening’s semi final between the two two clubs, Tullamore’s very presence in the latter stages of the championship tends to spook other teams, and as a result the gut feeling in a lot of the pubs around the county is that the Blues (Tullamore) are a great bet to cash in on any opportunity for silverware.

The statistics certainly bear that feeling out. In a championship with very little depth, Tullamore have failed to reach the county semi finals in five of the last ten years. However in the five championships where they did reach the last four, they converted that into four final appearances and three wins. That tendency to deliver when the stakes are highest means that they are considered very lively outsiders, particularly when ranged against Clara, who would be well known for stylish flamboyant football and whiter than white boots, but would also be historically renowned as a mentally weak unit.

However, this generation of players appears very different. They didn’t win last year’s county final due to getting the run of the ball, the won it despite getting no luck whatsoever. They dug deep when the pressure came on, and they now look and act like winners on the field. They put in a poor performance against neighbours Tubber in the quarter finals, but when their one goal chance came, John Reynolds took it with style and unless they under-perform hugely, they should beat a Tullamore team with plenty of skill in moving the ball, but a shortage of finishers.

Nowhere in Ireland is football more central to life than in Rhode village, and the presence of three sets of very talented brothers (McNamees, Sullivans and Darbys) gives them seven county panelists against a Shamrocks team that has never won a county title and has struggled to balance senior football and senior hurling. Shamrocks are hugely dependent on PJ Ward for scores, a very talented player but a man who hasn’t always produced his best football when the circumstances are most testing. They have no county starters and many of their traditional, no-nonsense leaders like Barry, Conor and Ronan Mooney are well into the Autumn of their careers. Despite all this, they have a very solid unit and when they do click, they can be a very potent attacking force. Nigel Dunne, a play-making centre forward in Maynooth university, is a player to watch for the future and he has been pulling the strings for the club very well.

Shamrocks brittle mentality means that a fifteen point hammering cannot be ruled out, but their potential is such that a win cannot be discounted either. At the odds offered for the two matches, Clara, and not Rhode, are the favourites to have on side.

Moving northwest to Roscommon where the county final is taking place on Sunday afternoon, St Brigid’s of Kiltoom are once again strong favourites to regain the Fahey Cup, a title that they last held in 2007. Their opponents on Sunday are Elphin, a club who have a huge history, but who have achieved very little throughout recent generations. In 1957, Elphin played in their tenth consecutive county final, winning their fourteenth championship by a goal against Sunday’s opponents. The 53 years since then have seen the club fail to add their fifteenth title, though optimism is very high in advance of Sunday’s game.

Elphin have a solid defensive unit, arguably at least as strong a sextet as that which the Kiltoom men will bring to Dr Hyde Park, but up front they have one star in Cathal Cregg and little else. The battle between Cathal Cregg and Peter Domican will be worth the entrance money alone since these are two of the most talented young footballers in Connacht, but with complacency unlikely to be an issue after two barren campaigns, St Brigid’s should coast home at the odds of 1/3.

The position of Longford Slashers as favourites for the county final on the other side of the river Shannon looks like a strong opinion from the Magic Sign, but that’s as much about the injury to Francis Magee as anything else. Between Magee’s absence, Dromard’s absolute ferocity in the tackle and a Longford Slashers backline that has yet to concede a goal this year, this game has all the ingredients of a 0-7 to 0-5 thriller. Jamesie Martin and Cian Mimnagh are two good scorers who can carry the Dromard attack in the absence of Magee, but Longford Slashers have been doing a lot of work at underage level and the general consensus around the county is that this is the year when they bridge the sixteen year gap since their last title.

But yet, at the odds offered, the only bet you should have is on Dromard at 13/8. The North Longford club aren’t the most popular team in the county, but their competitiveness and will to win is sufficient to ensure that they should cause the town club plenty of problems. This game looks certain to go down to the wire in a ferocious dog fight, and at 13/8, the Dromard lads are the meanest dogs in the house at a great price. This column recommends a 2pt bet on Dromard at 13/8.

Moving a bit further north again, Cavan Gaels and Roslea are both priced very short at 1/6 and 1/7 respectively, but their performances so far suggest that they should win with ease, while the last game we’ll look at this weekend is the Sligo football final, featuring Eastern Harps and Tourlestrane.

This is the third county final in four years featuring these two clubs and both games so far have Tourlestrane win by way of scoring the only goal in the game. Eastern Harps did pick up a county title in 2008 when Tourlestrane were essentially knocked out of the championship by June, but on form and on head to head record, the 2009 champions are justifiably favoured at 8/13. Eastern Harps possess one of the best defensive units in Sligo, led by Ross Donovan, and though their attack is still heavily dependent on Paul Taylor, they have averaged 1-14 in each of their four championship games this year. Their quarter final win over St Mary’s was one of the best games played in Sligo this year and while they might find it difficult to secure a win against a very experienced Tourlestrane team, this is one of those games where draw backers look sure to get a run for their money at 15/2.

A quick glance at the prices on offer from Ladbrokes would suggest that Rhode and Clara are a long way ahead of the pack and in this regard, the Magic Sign have assessed the situation correctly. When Rhode surrendered their county title to Tullamore in 2007, it was notable that Tullamore weren’t the team that beat them, and when the town team entered the Leinster club championship, they ran aground against a good but limited Éire Óg side from Carlow. Last year, when Clara usurped Rhode, they did so by beating Rhode in the county final, before going on to prove their worth on the Leinster stage. Indeed had their first semi final against Portlaoise not been abandoned due to the heavy rainfall, there is every chance that Clara would have denied Portlaoise their Leinster crown and possibly gone on a longer run of their own.

These two clubs also met in a very spicy league match recently and Clara came off best by a single point, however that was with Niall McNamee absent from the Rhode line up. Anyone who was previously unaware of McNamee’s fantastic talent got a glimpse of it last Sunday with his role in the two Offaly goals against Meath and that was while playing with a severely limiting injury. At club level, in Offaly at least, he is almost unstoppable and his importance cannot be overstated.

Nonetheless the psychological aspect of last year’s county final defeat cannot be discounted. Unlike previous defeats where Rhode might have been caught on the hop, last September they were definitely second best and they lost out despite getting plenty of help from the referee on the day. To compound that with a second defeat in the league means that Clara right now have a mental edge on their rivals, probably enough of an edge to counteract Rhode’s slightly deeper pool of top quality players.

If this were a straight county final between the two clubs and odds of 8/11 and 11/8 were offered, as the current outright odds suggest would be the case, then those prices would reflect Rhode’s talent but not Clara’s resolve and inner belief. At the outright odds, a 2pt bet on Clara at 15/8 would be justified.

Looking down the field, potential outsiders are hard to identify. Tullamore’s win in the county hurling championship last year has invigorated hurling in the town, to the point that many dual players are giving the small ball game their first preference. Tullamore’s ability to take opportunities is unparalleled – the club rarely misses a chance to snatch a title when others drop the ball – but they have big problems down the spine of their team and lack star quality. That their best player is an intercounty hurler who rarely trains with the footballers says a lot.

Edenderry are improving under Peter Brady’s stewardship but have a long way to go and need to learn how to close out wins in tight games, while Gracefield have a terrible record at getting their best footballers out on the field. Ferbane will need to find a lot more scoring potential to really threaten the top teams, while Shamrocks missed a lot of chances to win titles when they had a very strong team out, it’s difficult to see them making an impact now with many better footballers not available for selection.

Tubber and Ballycumber have both been competitive in recent years, but neither of these two neighbours look like contenders either. Tubber are losing several players to emigration this summer, a bodyblow for a small rural club, while Ballycumber simply haven’t brought enough good younger footballers into the mix in recent years.

The one wild card is Walsh Island, Intermediate champions from 2009. The very name will evoke a lot of memories from football fans all over Ireland familiar with legendary names such as Willie Bryan, Richie Connor and of course Matt Connor associated with the famous hooped jersey. They’ve a good core unit and are very strong at midfield, an area where Offaly club football is notoriously weak. The phrase “in the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king” certainly comes to mind. An injury or two to any of their key players will be enough to derail their campaign, but if they could keep fit and maybe avoid Rhode and Clara until the later stages, they have a settled team who might put themselves in a position to pull off a shock. The odds aren’t way off by any stretch of the imagination, but at 16/1 they are genuinely capable of beating the good sides, which is more than can be said for many other teams priced in or around that level. A 1pt bet on Walsh Island at 16/1, possibly with a view to laying off later, is well worthwhile.

Indeed for those who follow this blog and its recommendations, the Meath official’s decision was extremely welcome. Portlaoise had played with the advantage of a stiff but tricky breeze in the first half, and Clara were definitely the happier team going in at half time level pegging. Stephen Deehan’s point at the start of the second half was taken with the kind of relaxed kicking stroke that simply wasn’t an option in the first half, and with Thomas Deehan also playing extremely well in the inside line, Clara were definitely odds on to progress had the match played to a natural conclusion.

The refixture takes place this Saturday in Portlaoise, and the issue for those with a current position on the Leinster Championship outright, or indeed those currently uninvolved, is whether or not the market currently reflects the state of play of the three clubs involved. Clara were at least a match for Portlaoise last Sunday in the thirty five minutes of play that took place and their excellent use of foot passing over ranges of twenty and thirty yards really discommoded Portlaoise’s pressure defence. Portlaoise manager John Mulligan is unlikely to let the lessons from last Sunday go unheeded, but the evidence is stacking up that Clara are not just an unspectacular club team that pulled off a shock win over Rhode, but that they are right at home in this kind of company.

The bookmakers continue to view Clara as three point outsiders looking for a shock result this weekend, but this column is not so sure that this is the case. Portlaoise at 8/11 to win Leinster outright is way too short to justify punting after a shock to the system like this, particularly in the light of an excellent display from Garrycastle in Mullingar last Sunday. This column has bets running on Portlaoise at 6/4 and Garrycastle at 16/1, and bearing in mind that the Offaly champions still look very dangerous, a covering 1pt bet on Clara at 6/1 is definitely in order right now.

From an All Ireland perspective, our existing position on Corofin is perfectly healthy, however Garrycastle very definitely entered the list of potential contenders on Sunday. The poor standard of football on display in Munster was also a factor in this regard in that neither Kerins O’Rahillys nor Kilmurry-Ibrickane look strong enough to go the whole way, meaning that Garrycastle are probably the second most likely team after Portlaoise to reach the final from that side of the draw. Indeed Sunday’s football threw up the very real possibility that no Munster team will play in the All Ireland semi-final at all. Based on the form shown by the Kerry and Clare representatives, this year is the best chance Tír Chonaill Gaels have had to win a quarter final since they started lording the London scene, and in familiar territory in January, they could cause the Munster champions real problems.

Garrycastle would be underdogs in any hypothetical final since the odds of neither Corofin nor St Galls making the decider are few and far between, but at 14/1, it’s could be worth getting a small interest on the Westmeath men into the portfolio now. A natural distrust of Westmeath men in the latter stages of All-Ireland competitions, bred into all West Offaly Gaels from a young age, prevents Off the Ground from going on record and staking on this selection, but they have been handed a huge advantage now in that either Portlaoise or Clara will be going out for their third week in a row in the Leinster decider, while a win for Kilmurry-Ibrickane in Munster, also a distinct possibility, would also greatly shorten their All-Ireland price, were a victory for the Claremen come to pass.