The GAA might pride itself on being an all-inclusive organisation, but a quick look at the media coverage for national league games will tell you where their interests really lie. Expect full page spreads on the big battles in division one, plenty of coverage of Mickey Harte and Kieran McGeeney as they attempt to drag their respective teams out of division two, while everyone else fights for the scraps from the Masters’ table!

However here at Starbets, we’re nothing if not pragmatic. A 2/1 winner in a division four basement battle watched by five men, three maor uisce and a dog is just as good as a 2/1 winner at Croke Park or Páirc Uí Chaoimh, so here now is our preview for the first week of division 3 and division 4 action.

Antrim vs Sligo

These two counties have become joined at the hip in recent years and this will be their eighth meeting since 2006 in the league, meaning that they have met each other more often than any other pairing in that time. Whether it’s promotion or relegation, neither county likes to do anything without the other and as such it’s no surprise that the bookies are finding it hard to split them in advance of tonight’s battle at Casement Park. Boylesports make the home side their ever-so-slight favourites, while Hills give the most tentative of nods to the visitors from the North West, but every other layer is right on the fence, offering even money each of two. Initially we were inclined towards sharing the view held by Hills, but the news that David Kelly doesn’t start was enough for us to recant. The Tubbercurry forward has been in fantastic form for DCU so far this season and while we think that Sligo might be able to get a good result without him, unless you’re in Casement Park and you see his distinctive red hair bobbing into the corner for the throw in, this is a no bet game.

London vs Fermanagh

The odds of 1/7 and 1/8 about a Fermanagh win might seem odd in the light of the most recent result between these two teams, but there is no contrast between the Fermanagh team of 2011 and the 2012 version under the tutelege of Peter Canavan. If there was a handicap bet to be had, we’d be suggesting that Fermanagh would cover, but there isn’t, so our hands remain in our pockets for this one too.

Clare vs Waterford

Not many football supporters from north of the Suir river will realise quite how talented the two O’Gorman brothers are, and how much of a blow their defection to the hurling panel is to John Kiely and his selectors. There still are some fine footballers in this Waterford team and they can certainly consider themselves unlucky to have made the drop last year after three of their five league defeats were by a goal or less, but Clare looked decent in preseason competition. Home advantage is worth a couple of points, while the availability of the Kilmurry-Ibrickane players is worth a few more.

Kilkenny vs Wicklow

Kilkenny’s forfeiture against Louth in the O’Byrne Cup could easily turn out to be their best result of the year. Wicklow to win by as much as they like, not that this is any use to us.

Leitrim vs Limerick

Limerick will feel very hard done by to be playing division four football and they now share with Roscommon the remarkable record of having reached an All Ireland quarter final one year only to play basement league football the year after. And no game more typifies division four than a trip to Páirc Séan MacDiarmada to play Leitrim. There is no glamour or glory to be had, but anything less than complete and total commitment will see you coming home empty handed. Limerick to win, but not without a fight.

Longford vs Offaly

The few bits of 8/11 about Longford that were floating around earlier in the week have disappeared a long time ago and now 4/7 is the best that can be had about a home win here. It’s easy to see why those prices were taken – Longford are much further on in their development while Offaly are going into battle without their standout player in Niall McNamee. Longford should win with a bit over a goal to spare.

Roscommon vs Tipperary

Tipperary bring a very strong, seasoned outfit up to Kiltoom for this fixture and against a Roscommon team shorn of their St Brigids players, they will be expected to come home with the points. However it may not turn out to be that simple against a Roscommon team with plenty of scoring still in their team. Logic dictates that the 11/8 from Hills about an away win is the way to go, but we’re going to stay on the fence in this one in terms of the result.

However these are two good goalscoring sides and neither is either team particularly convincing in the full back line. Ladbrokes are offering 3/1 about over 2.5 goals in this game and that’s a decent shout here.

Wexford vs Cavan

Our antepost tip for the division faces what should be their toughest fixture of the entire campaign when they travel to Wexford Park to take on the antepost favourites for this extremely competitive division. Here at Starbets we were all set to recommend Cavan as a live outsider for this fixture, but that was at a time when we expected them to be offered at something around 3/1. 2/1 doesn’t appeal nearly as much and instead the best play is to stick with Cavan on the outright market. Even if they lose here they still have a great chance, while a win will see their outright price slashed right into 7/2 or 4/1.

Division 3 and Division 4 recommendations

Clare vs Waterford: Clare @ 4/5 (Bet365, Boylesports, Powers, Hills)

Leitrim vs Limerick: Limerick to win by 1-3 pts @ 13/5 (Powers)

Longford vs Offaly: Longford -1 pt @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Roscommon vs Tipperary: Over 2.5 goals @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes)

Any odds compiler will learn very quickly upon entering into the world of GAA trading that at this time of year, a little bit of money can tell a big story. In theory the bookies are out to make money with every event they offer. but in practice January is a time to duck and weave, to dodge the big money and wait until the bigger occasions such as national league and club championship fixtures take place in the spring. This week it’s the Clare hurlers that are the subject of the “plunge” in the betting market, though some readers would be shocked if they saw how little money it might take to move a team from 1/2 into 1/5 in a competition like the Waterford Crystal Cup, as has happened in this case.

On the face of it, Clare make little or no appeal this week. Waterford IT have good form in this competition having beaten Tipperary in last year’s competition and their draw with the Waterford county team a couple of weekends ago suggests that they are moving reasonably well at this time of year. Clare in turn would have a lot of hurlers unavailable due to their own college commitments, and under new management, there would be no reason to believe that they would be ready to hit the ground running. In fact nothing that Clare have done in the hurling world in the last few years suggests that they would be entitled to be such clear favourites here anyway, many of their players still have a lot to prove.

However if we learned nothing else from last night’s desperately disappointing FBD league final, it’s clear we should beware of college teams with bigger fish to fry. NUIG really phoned it in against Mayo, and while it was an improved performance from James Horan’s charges, the game was still rendered lifeless by the half hearted efforts of the students who clearly are much more interested in this week’s battle with St Mary’s teacher training college at Dangan.

This Thursday Waterford IT face a very tricky trip to Cork IT in the first round of the Fitzgibbon Cup and that will of course be their main priority. With that in mind, it’s easy to see why punters are piling into Clare, though one suspects there may have been a bit of an over-reaction at this stage as there is probably some bets being struck that owe more to lemming-like following the money than any real insight.

The match between Galway and UCD seems to be subject to the same behaviour, though in this instance, it’s hard to see why. UCD are in the same Fitzgibbon group as Waterford IT and Cork IT and they have no fixture in that competition this week. As such now would be the perfect time for a really high class challenge match and with home advantage, this column finds it very hard to fathom how punters are backing Galway with such confidence in a game that is exactly what UCD would want right now. After all this is Galway’s first competitive fixture under Anthony Cunningham’s reign and even though the for St Thomas’ player is a dab hand at multitasking in the GAA management world, he still has a lot on his plate, preparing for an All Ireland semi final with Garrycastle. We’d like to know a little bit more about UCD before piling into them, but in this instance the odds of 1/5 about Galway winning at Belfield seem far too short to make any appeal and could come back to haunt some of the lemmings out there.

Even by preseason standards, the McGrath Cup in Munster is very much the poor relation of the four competitions. Due to the absence of Kerry and the straight knockout format that fails to allow sides to get any momentum up, it’s taking place below the radar this weekend with little or no national interest in the games taking place. Traditionally a lot of the third level institutions taking part in the McGrath Cup are among the weakest footballing colleges in Ireland, with sides like Limerick IT and Waterford IT very much out of their depth at this level of competition.

However in the midst of all this, Sigerson Cup champions UCC certainly add a heavyweight presence to the competition, while the bright and positive early start for Clare suggests that they too could be worthy contenders for this prize if they can keep up their decent form.

From a betting point of view, the battle between Waterford IT and Tipperary is a dead duck with the 1/12 Tipp men almost certain to win, while Cork IT are simply too unpredictable and can’t be trusted to play to form against a low profile but capable group from IT Tralee. Odds of 9/4 about IT Tralee would be worth watching for the simple reason that a little money would tell a long story at this level, however in the absence of any clear team information or flood of money for the Kerry college, this too is not a fixture where we’d like to make any strong recommendations.

Cork manager Conor Counihan has suggested in the national media that his team will be taking the McGrath Cup seriously and will be hoping to string together a run of games, however the fifteen starters that he has selected don’t exactly back up this assertion. Graham Canty might be a big name in the world of Gaelic Football after a stellar career but he’s spent a long time away from county action and will undoubtedly need plenty of playing time to get back up to the pace of the game. There is huge depth in Cork football so it’s not as if we’re expecting any of the players named to turn out to be a weak link, but even so it’s a raw team that hasn’t played together and will be a long way further back in their training than Clare. After all Cork and Kerry are the two counties that can say with complete and absolute confidence that they will be playing ball in late July, and with that safety net behind him, Conor Counihan and Jack O’Connor simply don’t have to hit the ground running to the same extent.Conor Counihan might be trying to do the Munster Council a favour in talking up the McGrath Cup so as to get bums on seats, but we’d be amazed if he genuinely afforded priority to this match.

The presence of Kilmurry-Ibrickane footballers on the Clare panel this year indicated that the Banner County finally might be able to pull together and start delivering on the potential that exists in Clare football, while the hard hitting style of football in the county is well suited to winter games. Their comprehensive win last weekend did come at the expense of an underwhelming UL team and David Moran’s injury undoubtedly played a big part, but even so it’s hard to fault any team who scored eighteen times in a January football match, no matter who their opponents were. Hills’ offer of 4/1 about Clare is very attractive in this context and well worth a small bet.

Boylesports appear to be out to get UCC in advance of their battle with Limerick, but on the face of things, it’s difficult to see quite why they are pursuing this policy. All of the other leading contenders for the Sigerson Cup with the exception of Queens – DCU, NUIG, UUJ and UCD – got off to winning starts, in some cases against some very decent opposition. UCC kept plenty in reserve in the higher education league, as they usually do, but even so any side defending a Sigerson Cup title is likely to be decent and odds of 8/11 against a Limerick team with four debutants in the forward line and short of several other leading players, they look like an outstanding bet in Rathkeale.

McGrath Cup Recommendations

Cork vs Clare: Clare to win @ 4/1 (Hills)

Limerick vs UCC: UCC @ 8/11 (Boylesports)

Hot on the heels of the first part of our series, now we detail the top half of our hurling power rankings. We left off the first part with one county that had just recruited a local legend to take the reins so now, we resume with another….

7. Clare (8 – Slight improvement)

With a proven manager in charge and a lot of fine young prospects coming into their prime, Clare should be set to move well up the pecking order in the next few years, though Banner supporters will be slightly worried that they haven’t made more ground up by now. Last year in the Fitzgibbon Cup there were ten colleges that were competitive – Clare had 22 starters for these ten colleges, more than any other county, with the exception of Kilkenny. The significance of this is that Fitzgerald can afford to push his team very hard because the depth is there in the county to sustain a few losses. If players like Darach Honan, John Conlon, Caimín Morey and the like start to deliver on their huge potential they will shoot up the rankings and secure some very big wins, but we’ll temper our expectations for the moment and say that a Munster semi final win against Waterford is well within their grasp.

6. Galway (4 – Slight improvement)

Loads of underage talent, a new manager at the helm with a good track record, and a club championship that yet again proved itself to be one of the deepest in the country in terms of talent – you’ll forgive us if we say that we’ve heard it all before. On paper, Galway should be there or thereabouts every year, and yet they’ve only reached the last four once in the last ten championship campaigns. In 2010 they absolved themselves by saying that they should have beaten Tipperary, who went on to win the All Ireland. There can be no such excuse in 2011 after an abject defeat to Waterford, who should have been mentally broken after leaking seven goals in the Munster final. Logic dictates they should improve, but on the other hand, why would 2012 be any different to every other year when they promised greatness only to fall way short?

5. Waterford (6 – Disimprovement)

Time to get off the fence here. This column’s view is that people don’t realise yet what an incredible job David Fitzgerald did with very limited material in Waterford, so subsequently they will struggle to keep up the same standard next year and will probably slip down the order considerably. They may not be overtaken by too many other counties, but they ended 2011 maybe seven or eight points off All Ireland winning standard – expect that to move out to double figures at least. There are some good young hurlers in the county but it’s hard to look at those hurlers under 25 in the county and say that any of them have the making of another Tony Browne, John Mullane or Brick Walsh, all of whom are either retired or nearing that stage. Their first round league meeting with Cork in Páirc Uí Rinn is a massive fixture for them. Relegation to 1B will be difficult to avoid if they don’t win that tie, and their players might not have the mental strength to overcome a setback of that nature.

4. Limerick (7 – Slight disimprovement)

Their bookmaker ranking of seven is a little harsh and is probably more a reflection of the Munster championship draw that pits them against Tipperary in the quarter final. They appeared to turn a corner in 2011 and after comfortably securing promotion, they were narrowly edged out by Waterford in a wonderful Munster final. Their qualifier performances were very solid and they can consider themselves very unlucky to lose out to Dublin in a game where goals were very much the difference between the sides. John Allen will provide a steady hand on the tiller but they need to find a bit more steel in the full back line and possibly a consistent point scorer from play up front, someone who can be depended upon to raise two or three white flags even on a bad day. Right now there is no Limerick forward that meets that description – though several of their younger players could yet grow into that role.

3. Dublin (3 – improvement)

Not unlike Kildare in football, Dublin are in a “don’t look down” situation. They are going hell for leather and continue to take steps forward as a result, but standing still is not an option for them as they will slip right back as soon as they do. The second they take their foot off the accelerator, they will struggle to rediscover their momentum and they need Anthony Daly to keep pushing his players on. He’s not without fuel for the fire however – they proved in 2011 that they can win big games, they showed no fear of Tipperary in the All Ireland semi final and next year’s draw is ideal for them. Tthey can take on Kilkenny early and either secure that elusive championship win over the Cats, or else take their time and rebuild through the qualifiers and use what they learned later in the year. They have youth on their side, and Conal Keaney’s return will change their dynamic completely. Genuine All Ireland contenders in 2012.

2. Tipperary (2 – Slight disimprovement)

Consistently strong throughout the team, but Eoin Kelly continues to slow down and Lar Corbett struggled in the All Ireland final. Being so one-sided at the top level of the game was always likely to cause problems for the Sarsfields man and now that the Cats have figured out how to counteract Tipperary’s pattern of movement up front, Corbett will struggle to get himself into the same goalscoring positions. There are too many good hurlers in the county for Declan Ryan ever to have to field a “weak link” but in contrast to Kilkenny, how many Tipperary hurlers can we say are definitely the number one in Ireland in their position? Michael Cahill, Padraic Maher and Corbett are the only three that stand out and none of those man a central role. It’s a lot more than some other counties have, but you need more than that to usurp this Kilkenny team.

1. Kilkenny (1 – No change)

Yet again, Brian Cody took apart a good team and rebuilt it to become even better. In 2009, Kilkenny won the All Ireland but it was clear that Tipp were gaining ground and in 2010 the Premier men deservedly took the big prize. Last year Kilkenny defied their critics and roared back with an outstanding season and it’s hard to pick holes in any aspect of their setup. For as long as Brian Cody retains his incredible thirst for success and Henry Shefflin continues to compete at his incredibly high level they will be right up there, but next year they will have to be on guard for a challenge from Dublin. They’ve got Tipp figured out for the moment at least, but Dublin could have the fresh approach that might be their undoing. Deserved favourites and the best team in Ireland right now however.

Perhaps because there aren’t any matches to bet on, or perhaps because the NFL season is reaching a climax and we decided to borrow an idea from across the Atlantic Ocean to end the year, this column took the somewhat traditional decision to end the year with an attempt at that great debate topic, alternatively known as the great space filler, the power rankings.

When Martin Breheny of the Indo puts together a similar list at the end of the season, the ratings largely follow along the lines of the championship performances that year, probably as much to avoid controversy as for any other reason. While this Starbets list is obviously taking into account 2011 performances as the most significant factor, we are also attaching some weight to the general potential of counties in question. After all, Galway footballers won one competitive match this year out of nine – yet it is a brave compiler who would rank them in the bottom half of sides playing football.

Equally there are sides ranked above teams that beat them in significant games – the most obvious example being Kildare, ranked above Donegal. The reasoning here again is similar – Donegal got the result on that particular day in August, but only the most irrational mind would ignore that an erroneous square ball decision was the only reason they even got a chance to play extra time. If the sides met again tomorrow in a vital battle, Kildare would be favourites, and rightly so. Anyway, let us begin our voyage of unsubstantiated opinion, spread  across four columns and counting down. Counties are listed in order of Starbets ranking, but with the bookmaker ranking in brackets, calculated based on an aggregate of all 2012 All Ireland odds, and the prediction for how our ranking will change over the next twelve months.

33. New York (33 – no change)

A nice easy one to begin. New York’s participation in the All Ireland championship owes more to tradition than logic at this stage and perhaps the time is coming when New York should have to compete with teams from Boston or San Francisco to secure their slot in the Connacht Championship. That’s a debate for another forum however.For now, expect them to remain, and to continue shipping beatings.

32. London (28 – No change)

Slight controversy here, as not many would rate London so poorly after their incredible summer. However while they did have a good campaign, ultimately all they achieved was a win over a Fermanagh team that clearly were not ready for championship football. Anyone who has also played football in London knows that the issue of travelling from South to North for training is a very real one, to be taken very seriously. Southside clubs Fulham Irish and Round Towers were the London Senior and Intermediate champions in 2011, and their players will find it difficult to commit to playing county football, another blow for the Exiles. Without the element of surprise, London will struggle this year.

31. Leitrim (32 – slight improvement)

It may seem odd to rank Leitrim so poorly after a reasonable summer, but there is a feeling that they really peaked in beating Sligo and they will struggle to find more this year. The county isn’t producing enough good young players and while they can always catch a team on the hop, they’ll struggle to beat any other county who play to their potential against Leitrim.

30. Carlow (29 – slight improvement)

Carlow have always had good footballers, but getting them to work together for the greater good of the county has been a difficult art. Their win over Louth was a great occasion for the county, but now they have to build on that, starting with the league where they need to make a real push at escaping division 4.

29. Waterford (30 – no change/slight disimprovement)

Waterford put in a powerful effort in their 2011 NFL Division 3 campaign and to end the year relegated was a devastating blow. They remain very powerful around the middle third of the field for a division four team but there is no sign of that all -important elusive scoring inside forward coming up through their ranks.

28. Clare (31 – no change)

Clare had a glorious chance to make it out of division four last year but they fell at the closing hurdles and their Munster championship campaign ended with predictable results. Nonetheless they have some fine individual players and their level of talent stands equal to at least ten other counties in Ireland. As such it’s hard to rate them too poorly.

27. Wicklow (27 – No change/slight disimprovement)

As discussed in the previous column discussing division four, the biggest drawback to bringing Mick O’Dwyer in as your manager is that there will come a point where he will leave. Underage and personal development of players will have been neglected, and quite often transferred players will return home, though Thomas Walsh beat the rush by getting out already. Nothing that the county has done at minor or under-21 level suggests that a real bounce is coming and a first round tie against Meath looks ominous.

26. Fermanagh (26 – improvement)

This is still a county full of committed footballers, and the recruitment of Peter Canavan as manager has to be a significant step in the right direction. Getting out of division four is the immediate priority and Peter will know that no matter how much improvement he gets out of his team, beating Down is probably out of reach just yet. Nonetheless the future is a lot brighter and nobody believes for a minute that 2011 was a fair reflection of Fermanagh’s ability.

Clare, the Munster minor hurling champions, face a trip into the unknown on Sunday afternoon when they line out against Galway in the first All Ireland championship semi final of the summer. A 38 point win over Antrim proved that this Galway team are well capable of running up a score against a hapless opponent, but quite what that means in the context of taking the antepost favourites for the All Ireland title is a difficult question to solve.

With Clare, there can be no such question marks. They have several survivors from last year’s team, who also won Munster and who could have closed out the All Ireland as well only to be pipped by Kilkenny. They also have several members of the Ard Scoil Rís team from this year, a group that was heavily punted to win the All Ireland Colleges title, only to let that opportunity slip from their grasp against St Kieran’s college.

Against both Waterford and Tipperary however this Clare team was very strong, so their hurling credentials cannot be questioned. However whether those two lost finals were bad luck, nerves, a Croke Park effect or simply Kilkenny teams digging deep is something that could be hugely relevant this Sunday. Another game going down to the wire will ask a lot of the character of these two teams, and that’s a question that Clare have yet to answer this year.

One thing is for sure – Galway manager Mattie Murphy knows exactly what it takes to win a minor All Ireland title, and his comments in the run up to this fixture suggest that he thinks the potential is in this Galway side to emulate those five teams of years gone by that he has guided to Markham Cup success.

Of course he certainly can’t know how his team will react in the heat of championship battle, and he’ll be a little disappointed that they’ve drawn Antrim, followed by Clare. If his team had the opportunity to play one game against Kilkenny, Waterford or Dublin first up, they might have scraped through but still learned a thing or two about themselves, which would be a great help. As it is his side will have to be at full pelt tomorrow and hope that they get the run of the ball.

The odds of 8/15 about a Clare win are probably correct, in that while this Galway team is dangerous, Clare have to be favoured due to the form that they’ve put on the table so far. Those looking to back Clare to win could be as well off taking the 5/6 that Ladbrokes are offering about the favourites covering a two point handicap, simply because if Galway turn out to be average, this Clare side is good enough to win well. Overall however, this looks like a tough game to call, and a match that may be better suited to an in-play wager, to be struck when Galway have shown us at least some part of their hand.

Limerick and Galway were both drawn at home for this weekend’s phase two hurling qualifiers, and while both sides would have been expected to progress regardless of the venue for these fixtures, it certainly decreases the potential for an upset, very much so in the case of Limerick vs Wexford.

Unsurprisingly Ladbrokes compiler Neil Walsh is favouring the two home sides this week, however he is taking a very different view on both teams. At 3/10 Galway and 11/4 Clare for the match in Pearse Stadium, the Magic Sign are making a clear statement that they want money on the Banner County this week, and while they should get it, this column feels that this is a shrewd play on their behalf and that the money will be staying in the satchel of the bookmaker.

Galway weren’t just beaten by Dublin, they were humiliated. To only score nine times against a county that most Galway fans felt that they should have matched at the very least was a huge blow, all the more so after so many of the big names of bygone years had spoken up in advance of the game to flag up their concerns about the state of Galway hurling, essentially waving a red flag in the faces of the Galway players.

This was a symptom of one of the biggest problems for Galway hurling – their constant see-sawing between crisis and hype. They rarely live in the middle ground in the eyes of either the media or their supporters, despite being very much a middle ground team on the field of play. Joe Canning was supposed to be the prophet and messiah to lead them to the promised land, however while he is a fantastic hurler in his own right, all that he has done is caused most of his fellow forwards to retreat into their shell, which has obvious consequences when Joe has a day like he did in Tullamore.

Joe Gantley did step up to take a few nice points, but other than that the Galway forwards were dismal, utterly overshadowed by their Dublin markers. They certainly have something to prove, and while Galway hurling supporters might not regard Pearse Stadium as their natural home just yet, it is still a home fixture and John McIntyre’s men will be very eager not to be overshadowed on home soil.

Clare did burst out of the blocks very well against Tipperary and they stayed competitive throughout, but once again Clare were very much running on fire and brimstone, and one wonders how much of that they will be able to muster up outside of the cauldron that is the Munster hurling championship. There are several ways of reading their 4-18 to 1-18 defeat – either it was a close game where a late goal gave Tipperary’s margin a gloss that wasn’t deserved, or else it was a match that saw Tipperary start slowly, but easily take control once they settled into the tie.

Here at Off the Ground, we feel it’s the latter. Clare had some fine individual performances, but they won’t be able to bully Galway physically in the same fashion as Dublin, while neither are they likely to be allowed to build up an early lead. Galway will be forewarned, spitting blood, and they should cover the spread this week, which will presumably be of the four point variety.

In contrast, Ladbrokes are going after the favourites in the Gaelic Grounds, offering 8/15 about a Limerick win when the market is generally shorter. In this instance it might be worth taking the bait, as Limerick really shouldn’t be complacent in this fixture and if they hurl at full pelt, they are very definitely the better team. Opposing division two hurling teams when they line out against division one opposition has been a lucrative pastime in recent seasons as poorer league preparation usually takes a toll, however the difference in 2011 is that while this group of Limerick hurlers may have played their league hurling in division two, unlike any other division two team in recent years, they were a cut above the rest of the league. They won their title and won it well, and if they had a little bit more experience, they would have held off Waterford for a Munster semi-final victory into the bargain.

Wexford put in a late run to deservedly salvage their place in the top flight of the national league, but they were not as far away from Antrim as the final score suggests, they were a distant second best against Kilkenny, and there will be those within the county that will feel that the under-21 championship is of greater importance.

Above all however, they simply don’t have the weapons to inflict a large score on Limerick and while Wexford Park could have carried them a long way, in Limerick they are deservedly underdogs and possibly should be by another 1 or 1.5 points more than the 2 that will be offered.

In the tricky quest to find some value winners in the first round of the football qualifiers you may find some worth in noting the market movers. Here I’ll talk you through our thinking on some of the price changes made in the run up to today’s games.

A question I’m often asked is “How much money does it take to change a price?” To ask the question is to misunderstand the dynamic of the market. As John Maynard Keynes retorted when challenged about his shift in position on monetary policy: “When the facts change, I change my mind.”

In the case of the Sligo v Wicklow game the changing fact is that Sligo travel to Wicklow missing a significant number of players who would be expected to deliver the top level of performance that the county team is capable of. In the absence of these players our original price of 11/8 against a Wicklow victory was overly generous, so without seeing any significant amount of money for Mick O’Dwyer’s side we took the measure to reassess the game and move Wicklow in to 11/10.

Our price of even money Sligo is the best in the industry today. It’s not so much that we’re ‘out to get them’ but an under-strength side having been beaten by Leitrim then having to travel the breadth of the country for a first round qualifier tie look a selection that we’d struggle to lay at odds-on.

Another side that we are now stand-out against is Offaly. Having suffered a brutal beating against a county that they historically wouldn’t feel inferior to when Wexford wiped the floor with them, they were then dragged in to the controversy surrounding their county’s hurling counterparts when a high profile pundit – and a platoon of internet gossipers – questioned how they ‘refuelled’ between games. John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan quit the panel, and of course Offaly would not be renowned for blazing a trail through the qualifiers.

Even with a home draw things are stacking against Tom Cribben’s side. Monaghan on the other hand were nobly defeated by Tyrone, perhaps exceeding expectations as a new-look championship side took the game to the Ulster champions. A hard luck story in Dick Clerkin’s sending off presents an opportunity to ponder what might have been; they seem to be a unified and focussed panel that expects to improve through the qualifiers. We have the Ulster side in to 4/11 with Offaly now available at 3/1.

One selection that has been moved by market forces rather than team news is Down on the handicap against Clare.

We went up with a six point line on this game, Down at 10/11. It didn’t last so long. We saw interest from some customers whose view we respect and it became apparent that we were going to end up in an extreme position if we didn’t alter the prices. We cut Down to 4/5 and saw yet more money, so we went 4/6 and also opened up a new line at 7 points for customers who wanted odds closer to even money on their handicap pick.

Teams like Clare can be difficult to assess. They don’t get a lot of airtime or a lot of column inches. Their team news or reports on camp morale tends not to displace any of the headlines on the sports bulletins. What does reveal everything we need to know about Clare however is the weight of money opposing them. The punters penny is the key indicator, and we haven’t seen many notes cross the counter accompanying a docket with Clare +6 or Clare +7 on it.

Punt On!

The first round of the qualifiers is a unique test for punters in that it is often a test of the ability to read minds and mindsets as much as it is a test of the ability to read footballing skill and attributes.

Most of the match ups usually lack the local rivalry element that add a little bit of heat to the encounter, and in many cases players are often more concerned about catching a flight to America, or perhaps even getting back to their clubs and getting on with domestic affairs, than they are with prolonging a county season that is often going nowhere to begin with.

Either way, here’s Off the Ground’s assessment of the eight football qualifiers taking place tomorrow.

London vs Fermanagh

This column’s honest assessment is this – it’s impossible to say what the right price is, except that 1/2 Fermanagh and 15/8 London, as Ladbrokes have chalked up, is simply not it. This was not the draw Fermanagh wanted at all, on any level. They have one of the smallest budgets on the intercounty circuit and a €20k trip to London was not what the doctor ordered at all. With London on a high, the general perception is that Fermanagh are ripe for the picking, and the money has reflected this, piling into the Exiles who were as big as 5/1 in places when the odds were first released.

If Fermanagh buy into all this, then London should be favourites. If Fermanagh travel over here determined not to become the first county to lose to London in the qualifiers and believing that there is still something to be salvaged out of this season, then they are 1/6 shots. After all London are still the same county that manage one league win over anyone other than Kilkenny every couple of years. As we said, 1/2 is not right, but ascertaining the correct odds is another matter entirely. The lot of the compiler is an unhappy one here.

Fermanagh minus three at 6/5 looks like the best bet here, given that even though their best players are at home, those that travel still have a lot of pride in the jersey and won’t lie down, and London have lost the element of surprise.

Clare vs Down

Clare have better footballers than they are often given credit for, and if they smelled blood in the water, they would be a real dangerous outsider. Unfortunately Down is simply too big a target, they needed a Cavan, Sligo, Offaly or Antrim to come to Ennis. The retirement of John Clarke, the injury to Danny Hughes, uncertainty over the defensive credentials of the half back line, all these issues still have to be addressed by James McCartan, but they won’t be solved this week. Either way, Down will win here and probably cover the spread in the process.

Louth vs Meath

Remember all that stuff in the first paragraph about how qualifiers often lack the bite due to counties meeting that have no axe to grind? Well scratch that for this one.

It’s a huge pity that this tie couldn’t take place in Louth, because this could have been a humdinger of a tie if it was played in Drogheda with supporters hanging from the rafters, baying for Royal County blood. That wasn’t possible, but even so Louth could be in with a chance here.

Much of the discussion after Kildare’s Leinster quarter final win over Meath centred on Kildare’s inability to shoot, which was fair comment but still missed the point from a Meath perspective. Meath won 50% of the primary possession in that game at least, and yet they had less than half the number of chances as Kildare.

Meath simply don’t know how to turn possession into scoring chances under Banty and a Meath team playing possession football is a round peg trying to fit into a square hole – it’s just not natural. Paddy Keenan can spoil the midfield at least, he won’t meet anyone as good as Brendan Murphy here, and while the Louth half forward line is hugely underwhelming, if Meath turn over ball the same way as they did against Kildare, then Lennon, Maguire and Rooney will get chances.

Louth being Louth, a heartbreaking defeat is always possible, so 6/5 about Louth plus two is the best play.

Offaly vs Monaghan

Even as an Offaly native, calling this one is tough. Offaly have the players to give Monaghan a tough time in Tullamore, but banking on them to be in the right mindset to do so is a risky game. The Wexford game hurt this team and management badly, and subsequent events that have accused them of being good-time-charlies can’t have gone down well either. In many counties that would lead to a backlash, but sometimes backlashes in Offaly don’t always work out how one would imagine. They often take place far away from the field of play.

Anton Sullivan is a huge loss and while the team named is certainly not that which will start, the withdrawal of John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan robs Tom Cribbin of several options so there won’t be that many surprises.

If Offaly get goals, this could be close, but they’ll need the rub of the green because they have proven that they can’t overcome any bad luck in the middle of games.

Laois vs Tipperary

The accepted wisdom regarding this fixture is that Laois were going the right way under Justin McNulty, they just overdid the defensive play and got blown away by a strong Dublin team. That’s as may be, but Tipperary played a strong Kerry team and got no luck, so it’s very early to say that they are way off the pace. Tipperary are a solid division three team, no better, no worse, while Laois are a cut above that. However the Laois half forward line is desperately short on scoring power and there remain question marks over the form of both Kingston and Tierney. Laois should win, but 1/3 with Ladbrokes is way too short. Instead, take even money about less than 28.5 points in the game. It’s hard to see either side scoring fifteen points in this game, never mind both of them.

Cavan vs Longford

It says a lot that despite all the comments directed at the problems in Leinster football, one of the weakest counties in the province is favoured to win away from home against an Ulster team who would probably be regarded as no worse than seventh in the northern province right now. This is a great fixture for the locals who share a keen rivalry but rarely get to meet on the field. Longford to win is the accepted wisdom, but it mightn’t be that simple. No bet here, there’s just too many talented forwards on that Cavan team who could hit form at any time.

Wicklow vs Sligo

What looked like a reasonable assignment for Sligo when the fixture was drawn up has grown more and more difficult as their list of absentees has extended. Johnny Davey and David Kelly are unable to return, Ken Sweeney has followed Keelan Cawley out of Ireland, Brendan Curran and Alan Costello are suspended and all in all Sligo look to have their work cut out for them. Ladbrokes appear to be of the same mind here, offering Sligo at a best price of even money, while only giving 11/10 to Wicklow backers. In a neutral venue, with both sides at full strength, Sligo would be 2/5 here – right now, Wicklow probably deserve narrow favouritism and would be the tentative call.

Antrim vs Westmeath

Two sides that were desperately poor in the first round, but the managers have taken a very different approach to this qualifier tie. Liam Bradley has picked the same Antrim side as started against Donegal, while Pat Flanagan has reverted to type with a very defensive alignment, including two wing forwards who would usually be known as defenders. The other side of this is that the selection of Denis Corroon as a wing back is an unusual one, but one that Gary Connaughton could look to target with kickouts.

The Westmeath hurlers would happily testify as to how difficult it is to play an away fixture in Belfast, so far from home, however the 13/10 makes plenty of appeal even so. Dessie Dolan and Denis Glennon is a fine inside forward pairing and while they were out-gunned against Wexford, Antrim simply don’t have the same scoring power to match them blow for blow. Another low scoring battle could be in prospect here, but we’ll give the tentative nod to the outsiders to sneak it. In fact Westmeath to win by 1-3pts would be our favourite winning margin bet of the week.

It all started with a smile, and for a decade after Nicky English made the mistake of relaxing his game face in 1993, the rivalry between Tipperary and Clare was as heated as any pairing in Gaelic Games. The infamous under-21 “Menace in Ennis” will live long in the memory of anyone who was there to witness it, while several other occasions revealed that there was a lot more to this battle than simply winning games of hurling.

This weekend sees Tipperary priced at 1/16 with Ladbrokes for their meeting with Clare in the Gaelic Grounds, and followers of the game within the Banner county could be forgiven for wondering how things have deteriorated back to a point reminiscent of the 1960’s, when Clare barely even featured on Tipperary’s radar.

A nine point handicap suggests that Tipperary should win this game at their ease and it is difficult to look down the lineups and see areas where Clare can gain some kind of foothold. Jonathan Clancy’s energy at midfield could be a source of possession if things fall in his favour, John Conlon remains a fine prospect and a potentially game changing wing forward and Darach Honan always has a real air of danger about him, but all three men face tough match ups on Sunday, while players like Lar Corbett and Noel McGrath appear to be in too much form for Clare to be able to handle them.

It’s notable that this week the bookmakers have finally responded to the increased level of scoring in this year’s championship and are pitching their total points lines that bit higher, but increased total points brings with it increased winning margin. Not unlike rugby union, where a slight difference in ability can lead to a big disparity on the scoreboard given the right conditions, a lot of the games this year have ended with deceptively large winning margins.

Antrim gave Wexford a torrid time for long spells before eventually succumbing by eleven points, Tipperary’s win over Cork will go into the record books as an eight point win but was hardly a hammering on the field by any stretch of the imagination, while Westmeath hugely over performed against Galway and drew level with a quarter of the game to go, but still succumbed by nine points. Of course Waterford’s win over Limerick also proved that tight games are possible as well, but those sides were a lot more evenly matched than Sunday’s protagonists.

Tipperary are moving at a high cruising speed right now and while Clare will take the field energised and keen for the fray, their division two preparation could cost them dearly in the closing stages. Second tier league teams have struggled in the championship to compete in recent years and while Limerick went against that trend, this Limerick team were a cut above the rest of the division two sides this year, something that cannot be said about Clare who have been very fortunate not to have suffered more reverses at the hands of the Laois/Carlow/Antrim type teams of this world.

Even if they defy this preparation and go well, as they did two years ago, then this handicap could still come into play. If on the other hand Tipperary hit the ground running and burn off Clare early in the game, this could be a comfortable win. Tipperary minus 9 points on the handicap is definitely the recommendation.

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