Ulster battles to the fore

September 2nd, 2011 by Kevin Egan

This weekend’s nationwide tour of club action takes in Antrim, Donegal, Limerick, Waterford, Cork, Offaly, Wexford, Leitrim and a whole host of other counties, all looking to squeeze fixtures in before the hurling final throws in on Sunday – or in Donegal’s case, happily going head to head with Kilkenny and Tipp!

Glenswilly vs St Eunans is the big one in Donegal that fixture makers up there believe will appeal to the local public more than the hurling decider, and as one wag on a discussion board put it, the result could easily depend on whether Michael Murphy remembers how to play as a forward. His deployment as a sweeper behind the midfield has to go down as the most tragic waste of resources in that Donegal team under Jim McGuinness and while the big man is no doubt delighted to have an Ulster medal for himself, it is a shame to see a player of such immense talent unable to show it.

St Eunans have been at the forefront of Donegal football for some time but while they might have marginally more depth, the narrow preference is for the outsiders (5/4 Glenswilly with Ladbrokes) to edge this game. There was little or nothing to choose between the sides in their first, drawn game a month ago, but Glenswilly are growing in belief this year and they get the vote to prevail.

Kilcar should have way too much ability for Ardara in the other quarter final down for decision, and assuming that Paddy McBrearty isn’t too traumatised by having to go back to school, they look like nailed on 1/2 shots and great value for accumulator bets.

Over in Armagh, Crossmaglen Rangers will be a regular feature on multiple bets in advance of their clash with Armagh Harps tonight, but at 1/12, there’s little to be gained in looking too deeply at that fixture.

Tomorrow evening Maghery meet Granemore in the second of two quarter finals, with discipline likely to be a key issue for both teams. On paper Granemore have a decent attacking unit based around the assorted Raffertys, however they haven’t produced big scores in recent seasons and a total of 1-9 in the first round against St Michaels doesn’t indicate that anything has changed. The odds of 10/11 Maghery and 11/10 Granemore give a fair indication about how closely matched these teams should be, but on the basis that Maghery create more chances, they get the vote to progress to the last four.

Sunday’s games see the hugely inconsistent St Pats taking on a Pearse Óg team that haven’t found their form this year yet, with plenty of online tipsters leaning for an upset here. It could happen, but with slight injury concerns over defender Ciarán McKeever, we wouldn’t like to make a recommendation. If you are connected enough to know that he’ll definitely make the starting line up, then 13/8 could make some appeal. Otherwise, it’s possibly best left alone.

Ballymacnab are favourites to overcome Clan na nGael based entirely on league form, since they received a bye in the first round of the championship. They look the better team certainly, but championship experience is a valuable asset nonetheless. This column is a big fan of Rory Grugan’s threat when coming at goal from the half forward line and there is certainly scoring in this team, but 8/13 is a short price, possibly too short to trust.

St Galls are another short priced banker for their Antrim semi final meeting with St Brigids and indeed there would be those who would suggest that 1/12 isn’t even short enough. They’re expected to be joined by Lámh Dearg in the final after the West Belfast club overcame second favourites Cargin in a fierce quarter final battle, but it might not be as simple as all that and there could be value to be had siding with Creggan this week.

It would be understandable, after taking out Cargin, that Lámh Dearg would now be looking ahead towards a potential final against St Galls, and it’s clear that they’re doing that as they chose to leave potentially suspended players off the team in their most recent league match in order to ensure that if they did get to a final, those players would have their suspensions served. Allowing for these absentees, this should be a 4/5 vs 5/4 match, not the 4/7 that is currently being quoted.

Club Round Up

August 5th, 2011 by Kevin Egan

Fans of grass roots GAA certainly can have no complaints this week with roughly 100 games priced up all across Ireland, more than enough compensation for the senior intercounty championships only offering two games to the GAA punter.

Looking at the prices on offer, it could be a good week to look at some dangerous outsiders, as more than a few short priced favourites look vulnerable. First up tonight is Graiguecullen, reigning Laois under-21 champions and the club many people expect to be the main challengers to Portlaoise for this year’s Laois senior football championship crown. Aside from their incredible cross-border history which includes 13 Carlow championships and 12 Laois titles, Graigecullen have been a huge success story in Laois underage football in recent years, and this year that form finally came through to senior level when the club reached the league final.

Portlaoise were again too strong for the men in green and red on that occasion, but it was further evidence of a team going in the right direction under the management of Paul Bealin. Some would argue that the odds of 1/5 that Ladbrokes are offering about a first round win over Portarlington are further corroboration of their current lofty reputation.

Despite all this, 4/1 Portarlington could yet be worth a second look. Port have plenty of good young footballers of their own and while they were relegated from the first division of the league this year, they actually finished quite strongly, with a draw against the Heath, wins over St Josephs and Arles-Killeen and a 3-9 to 2-9 defeat to Portlaoise. This game is being eagerly anticipated in Port as club insiders give their men every chance. A tight contest is quite likely and in that environment, 4/1 is well worth a wager.

The other interesting outsider in Laois is Crettyard, 15/8 to turn over St Josephs. This is purely a play against St Josephs, who have been struggling to get together their best team in recent weeks. All the local media are expecting a very tight game here and most are struggling to pick a favourite – this is one of those games where the bookmakers’ odds could be a reflection of which team has the higher profile in recent years rather than how the teams stand in 2011.

Moving now to Derry, and up here we’re going to shoot for the big one – Kilrea to turn over Ballinderry at 7/2. The Shamrocks are rightly respected all across Ulster as a top class side, however Kilrea won’t be thinking about that, they’ll be thinking about the ferocious battle (in the worst sense of the word) that took place between these two clubs last year. Kilrea really stood up to Ballinderry that day and if this match gets ugly again, well then surely the underdog must have a chance if the favourites get distracted by the extra-curricular activity.

The two Kielts are in extraordinary form right now while Enda Muldoon is getting way past his peak. The Shamrocks should be favourites but this is a real banana skin for them and at 7/2, we’re going to take a chance that they slip up. We tread warily here since our opponents on the other side of the betting counter have the inside track into Derry football, however anything can happen when players are preparing for a match where points and goals could be of less interest than avenging past offences.

Cavan is our next destination on this whistle-stop tour of Ireland, and here we’re again shooting at the big guns by suggesting Ramor United to turn over Cavan Gaels at 16/5. Cavan Gaels are one of those clubs that everyone expects to be competitive all the time, but the nature of their defeat to Ballinagh at the weekend suggested that something is badly wrong in the club. The decision not to start Seanie Johnston was a bizarre one as the corner forward showed no signs of injury when he came on, while there have been several signs that their failure to take the county title last year was no fluke.

Cavan Gaels still have an incredible array of talent, but if things aren’t going well in a club, it can be difficult to turn things round in a short space of time. In a do or die fixture like this, Ramor are very dangerous opponents and they will smell town blood in the water. Price, as always, determines the correct course of action and 16/5 warrants a bet.

Of course there are favourites who look well priced too, worthy ingredients for accumulator punters. In Offaly, Rhode will cruise past Tubber, albeit at a prohibitive 1/12, while Loughinisland look much too good for Tullyish in Down at 1/3. Tuam Stars would have to play very poorly to give Kilkerrin/Clonberne a chance and should win by plenty, while Clonguish look like a cracking 2/5 shot and should be way to strong for Mostrim.

Finally, it would be a shock of momentous proportions if Rasharkin didn’t lose heavily to Cargin, but here too odds of 1/10 don’t encourage a big play – at least not with so many well priced alternatives, as outlined earlier.

Parnells offer value in big clash

May 4th, 2011 by Kevin Egan

It’s the calm before the championship storm this weekend as most counties spend their time taking part in a flurry of challenge matches to finalise their preparations for the big provincial games that lie ahead. While there will be some good fixtures out there to be seen, these don’t exactly represent good punting material.

This means that once again the GAA punter must look to the ongoing club action for some betting action, and again the Dublin SFC is at the forefront of our thoughts with an array of great games.

In the absence of absolute clarity about what is happening with Kilmacud Crokes and St Mary’s and how their preparations were affected by the confusion over this fixture we will avoid it, or indeed any of the knock on games against either Thomas Davis or Ballyboden St Endas. However despite the absence of the two most recent Dublin Senior Champions from the card, there is still no shortage of quality on display this week.

Perhaps the most star studded encounter is that which will take place in Parnell Park on Sunday lunchtime between St Sylvesters and Parnells. In the first round of games the bookmakers didn’t seem to be aware as to how much talent that the Malahide club had brought on board, but Syl’s comfortable win over a very decent Ballymun Kickhams side proved that they are no longer just a league club. At 1/2 against Parnells, Ladbrokes are sending out a clear statement that they consider Sylvesters to be front runners for the Dublin championship outright.

However while Sylvesters are probably entitled to favouritism in this tie, people are forgetting that Parnells have more than a few stars of their own and while their first round win over third division Whitehall Colmcille tells us very little, we did see that they have got a classy new centre forward in Armagh’s John Murtagh.

Murtagh’s six points were a feature of one of the star individual performances of the round and while the dismissal of Whitehall’s centre back Donal Mulvey played a part in his achievement, Murtagh is clearly well worth his place in a very good team. MJ Tierney and Colm Begley of Laois already add a touch of intercounty class to this group and they are very live 15/8 shots in this game.

Ballymun, Brigids, Oliver Plunketts and St Vincents are all expected to win with something to spare, but as St Anne’s proved in the last round when coming home at odds of 7/1 against St Judes, shocks at this time of year are always a possibility.

If we were to pick one game of the four where an upset is most likely to occur, then it would have to be St Brigids against St Marks. Marks were very poor against Ballinteer in the first round, but they have a lot more in the tank, while St Brigids were very disappointing as well against opponents that were little better.

Many people expected the decline in Brigids’ fortunes to come last year but they did really well to reach a county final against the odds on that occasion. This time around they look to have a lot to do to even come close to repeating that achievement and St Marks could cause them real problems this weekend.

Ballinteer at 6/4 could themselves be value against Templeogue Synge Street this week also. Local derbies are not quite the same in the leafy suburbs of South Dublin as they are out in the wild landscapes of South Armagh, West Wicklow or North Tipp, but that local edge will still be a leveller, while people are getting a bit carried away with Ballinteer’s poor league form.

Eoghan O’Gara failed to start against St Brigids due to his ongoing groin injury and if he misses out again, there is little or nothing to choose between these two sides. On that basis, Ladbrokes’ 6/4 about Ballinteer is probably the better bet of the two.

Finally, if St Judes have anything about themselves at all, they should bounce back well against Lucan Sarsfields at 8/15 and this price could be boosted by throwing in Na Fianna to beat St Maurs at 1/3. There is a real gulf in class in both of these matches and while Maurs overachieved and Judes spectacularly underperformed last time out, anything close to normal form for either of these two clubs should see this double coming in.

St Thomas coming up through Galway

April 23rd, 2011 by Kevin Egan

Looking briefly now to Galway, this is certainly a championship where the group stages sometimes fail to catch the imagination, since the big guns almost always make it to the business end of the season.

Portumna, Clarinbridge and Loughrea are among the antepost favourites and all three of these clubs, along with surprise package from 2010 Tynagh/Abbey-Duniry, bypass the first week, but there are still a few games tomorrow that will be watched carefully by those looking to pick the winner of this year’s championships, and a few more that may be of much more relevance at the bottom of the table.

The meeting of Sarsfields and St Thomas will certainly be one that the big guns will be keeping an eye on as these two clubs have both made great strides at underage levels in recent years and with the Burke family well represented at every level in the club, Galway intercounty midfielder David Burke is likely to have several family members lining out alongside him for the foreseeable future.

Sarsfields have placed a lot of their hopes in the capable arms of the young Joe Cooney but St Thomas look to have a lot more depth in their ranks and they could be a good antepost bet for the year, as well as offering good value at 4/6 with Ladbrokes for Sunday’s game. St Thomas have been flying in the Galway under 21 championship so far this year and if they bring that form to the senior game, they will be hard stopped.

The meeting of Athenry and Padraig Pearses is expected to have a lot more relevance to the relegation battle as these clubs share a tough group with Portumna, Tommy Larkins and Mullagh this year, but Athenry’s reputation has probably played a significant part in their installation as 1/4 favourites for this tie.

Pearses may be a bit raw coming up from intermediate and their league form doesn’t suggest that they are going to be that competitive this year but they have enough to cause Athenry problems, who are beginning to find some form at under-16 and minor level but have some years to go before that will really start to feed through at senior level. 3/1 about Pearses is well worth a small speculative punt.

Also on Sunday is the meeting of Liam Mellows and Ardrahan, where the Blues (Ardrahan) are expected to have the better young players but possibly not the experience to overcome their city opponents, and Kiltormer, 4/6 favourites to overcome Carnmore in another potential relegation battle.

Kiltormer would normally be a shorter price here but a lengthy injury list is likely to curtail their efforts and Carnmore will undoubtedly smell blood in the water here. 13/10 about Carnmore is the call if you have to have a bet, but there are better options elsewhere.

Club action gets underway

April 23rd, 2011 by Kevin Egan

The sun is splitting the stones outside and for a good share of the hurling clubs all across Ireland, this weekend marks the beginning of championship action. There’s a long way to go between now and county finals in October and November, but even so, clubs will be looking to get off to the best possible start and make sure they aren’t playing catch up when they resume later in the summer.

It’s always fraught with difficulty picking club winners without any form to go on, so for the purposes of this column, we’ll stick with the familiar territory of Offaly and Galway, the counties of origin and residence of your writer.

The Offaly SHC got underway last night with a two point win for 2010 Intermediate champions Drumcullen over Shamrocks but it’s tomorrow when things really kick off, with five games involving all the main contenders.

First up, we have a banker – Coolderry will beat Kinnitty in a repeat of last year’s county semi final. These two South Offaly clubs have a long standing rivalry but Kinnitty put in an abysmal performance in last year’s knockout meeting, while this year club talisman James Rigney is carrying an injury.

He may yet line out, but even if the diminutive defender takes his place, he’s unlikely to be at his best having missed months of hurling. Forward Stephen Kinsella is also suspended, while Coolderry have been going fine in the league and have plenty of good young hurlers looking for a starting place in the first fifteen of the reigning county champions. Coolderry should win this well, though at 1/4, that’s hardly unexpected.

The meeting of Birr and Shinrone is likely to be one of the most eagerly anticipated of the round, with Shinrone expected to give the Birr men a very tough test. The return of former county player Dan Hoctor from his travels will be a huge boost to the outsiders, while under the guidance of Joachim Kelly, the Shinrone men will be looking to finally deliver on their unfulfilled potential.

10/3 about a Shinrone upset here is a very good price since Birr simply haven’t been able to replace the great hurlers that have retired in the past few seasons. Tullamore’s win over Birr in the last two championships was seen as a shock but the simple truth of it is that with the exception of Rory Hanniffy and Dylan Hayden, Birr lack the kind of class that used to be their trademark down through the years.

At the same time as Birr and Shinrone throw in, two clubs with a great underage record in recent years, St Rynaghs and Seir Kieran, will get underway in Rath. Rynaghs have huge strength in depth and their intermediate and Junior A teams are always competitive even when their seniors tend to struggle, while Seir Kieran pick from a tiny parish and are always heavily dependent on a few key families. That said the ability of Joe Bergin always gives them a chance, while Rynaghs haven’t got that same mercurial talent in their ranks.

4/7 is a very short price about Rynaghs here, but Ladbrokes are still one of the biggest prices in the market about the big Banagher club and should dodge most of the money which will likely be for Clareen (Seir Kieran) in this one.

Kilcormac/Killoughey and Tullamore also met in a 2010 semi-final, a match that turned out to be a rancorous affair where referee Declan Cooke had to be escorted from the field. Tullamore deserved their win on that occasion but there is a big difference between Tullamore in September and Tullamore in April/May. Kilcormac/Killoughey have a habit of winning games like this and should win here again, though there’s no way that 1/2 will be the price chalked up by the Magic Sign or indeed any other bookmaker if these sides meet again in the knockout stages.

Finally Belmont meet Lusmagh in a repeat of another contentious game from 2010, the relegation semi final which ended in controversy after Declan Cooke (yes, him again) blew the whistle to award a Lusmagh penalty, but then allowed David Moran to strike the ball to an empty net and awarded the goal. There should be little to call between these two sides, but Lusmagh have lost a few key players over the winter while in David Kenny, Belmont at least have the services of one of the best players in the county.

Neither side will be strongly fancied here but if there is as much as a hair’s breadth between the two sides, it’s Belmont that deserve the edge. Ladbrokes go 5/6 Lusmagh and 21/20 Belmont and on that basis, the 21/20 might be worth a small bet.

A good Port even without a storm

October 8th, 2009 by Kevin Egan

Irish people could be forgiven for getting confused in recent years. Summers used to mean July and August, but it appears that the calendars have been adjusted, and May, June, September and October have become the best months of the year, weather-wise. Traditionally county championships that dragged on into October used to mean finals being played on soft pitches with a nip in the air, but due to the peculiarities of the Irish climate, the club players rather than the county men seem to be getting the best of the conditions.

(more…)

Traversing the country in search of value

September 11th, 2009 by Kevin Egan

While Croke Park will be hosting three All Ireland finals this Sunday, it’s probably not unreasonable that for most of the GAA membership all across the country this weekend, the real focus will be on the club fixtures that are being played all across Ireland. The weekend in between All-Ireland finals is traditionally one where counties put busy programmes in place and this weekend is no different, with several very interesting betting opportunities resulting from the wide range of fixtures being played.

(more…)

Compiling a winning hand with clubs

August 13th, 2009 by Kevin Egan

Ask not what Off the Ground can do for you, but instead ask what you can do for Off the Ground!

Despite what it may sound like, that isn’t actually this column’s attempt at getting you, the reader, to do all the work. Instead, that is an ideal way forward to get plenty of winners over the Autumn as the bookmakers start to price club games and championships all over Ireland. Every reader of this column has a home county, and chances are there are one or two other counties as well where they have different reasons for being familiar with the local scene. With that in mind, don’t be shy about using the add comment facility on any of these blog posts. If you haven’t posted before, then it may take a while for your post to appear as it has to be moderated (you’d be surprised how many people out there think that this is a good site to try and advertise tamiflu or viagra online!) but once your first post is put up, from then on your comments will appear instantly. Unless you try to sell us tamiflu or viagra of course.

(more…)

Cross check before take off

March 16th, 2009 by Kevin Egan

Both urban and rural clubs in action, with legends and newcomers of the club scene and a fair smattering of household names as well as all four provinces represented, the marketing gurus really got everything they could have wanted in the lineup for tomorrow’s All Ireland club finals. Punters too have been treated to a nice bit of variety, with one theoretically one-sided game taking place before a heavyweight contest which is very likely to be decided by a handful of points at most. Unsurprisingly with so much form in the book, the oddsmakers appear to have a reasonably accurate grasp on the relative strengths of the two teams, with the early handicaps on Portumna of around five or six points having disappeared not long after their creation.

The reigning Galway and All Ireland champions are now generally pegged as eight or nine point favourites in this match and despite this being a final, one could even make a case for suggesting that low double figures might be more appropriate. Portumna have raised the bar for club hurling in Ireland and but for a narrow defeat in the 2006 Galway final when Joe Canning was the subject of some rough treatment, they could very easily be looking to register their fourth win in succession tomorrow. Their win over Ballyhale was simply outstanding and if they play at anything above 70% tomorrow, they should simply cruise to victory.

(more…)