The GAA may get a lot of things wrong, but they have mastered the art of starting the National Football League with a bang in recent years and tomorrow night’s double header featuring Kildare vs Tyrone and Dublin vs Kerry is a genuinely mouthwatering attraction, one that should attract a substantial crowd for what will be an incredible night of entertainment. We’ll have a look at Kildare vs Tyrone later today, but for now, let’s have a look at the All Ireland final rematch to kick off our previewing for the week.

Dublin vs Kerry

Last year’s All Ireland final was not unlike an episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer for Dublin supporters, since so many demons were killed over the course of the match. They beat Kerry in an All Ireland final, they delivered a fantastic comeback when it looked like they were dead and buried and thus proved their mental fortitude, and above all they bridged the 16 year gap and ensured that the Sam Maguire Cup spent the winter in the nation’s capital city. Their priority for 2012 will of course be to retain that title and while any victory over Kerry is a good day’s work, much like the O’Byrne Cup semi final two weeks ago, this is a game that Dublin would like to win, but yet they have no real need of doing so. Bernard Brogan, Alan Brogan and Paul Flynn are among the significant absentees from the forward line, but Mossy Quinn has been in good form so far this year while Diarmuid Connolly is capable of scoring well, so that’s not really our concern.

Traditionally opposing Kerry in the first round of the league is a good policy to keep. They’ve often come out of the blocks slowly and usually bounce back in week two. That said, it’s never good to underestimate the intensity that a Kerryman can bring to a game if he feels in any way slighted. Last year was supposed to be Colm Cooper’s year to lift the Sam Maguire and while Dublin probably deserved their narrow win in the final, Kerry can certainly feel a little aggrieved with a few marginal decisions that went against them, none more so than the free that was awarded and converted by Stephen Cluxton to win the game. Dublin are a long way off full fitness yet and even without the Dr Crokes players, Kerry look like the more motivated side here.

Down vs Donegal

Last year Donegal hit the ground running, this year so far they’ve been very flat and the general consensus appears to be that a home win is the most likely outcome here. This column is not so sure about that. Derry shut down the highly rated Down attack in the McKenna Cup semi-final and thoughDonegal are missing a few very important players for this game – in the absence of Colm McFadden, Michael Murphy and Mark McHugh, one wonders where their scores will come from – this is a game where both managers will be drawing heavily on their reserves. In that context, the team with the best system, where panel players can slot in and do a job, may have the advantage and that suggests Donegal can be competitive in what could be one of the lowest scoring matches of the weekend. The match odds seem correct, so we’ll side with a shutout here.

Laois vs Mayo

Laois outdid themselves to secure promotion to division one last year, but one wonders if it will seem like a pyrrhic victory after a tough campaign in the top flight this Spring. Games away to Donegal, Kerry and Cork look like lost causes before the start, so they will have to look at taking at least five if not six points from their four home fixtures to have any chance of staying up. Mayo have been moving well so far this Spring and even though Laois tend to go well under lights at O’Moore Park, we suspect an arduous league campaign starts tomorrow night for Justin McNulty’s men.

Armagh vs Cork

Ladbrokes posted up 1/2 about a Cork win earlier this week and they were quickly brought back into line by the weight of money, while even the 2/5 that was generally available is starting to move now, as the punters line up to take on a home side shorn of their Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Armagh have sometimes surprised us in the past with strong performances at home, but two debutant corner forwards either side of a full forward who is more known for his workrate than his finishing does not suggest that they will score freely this weekend. Now look at the Cork team – arguably stronger than the side that lined out in their last championship match, due to players returning from injury. Taking a global view, it seems wrong not to recommend a single home team to win in a full round of games, but despite an inspecific sense of uneasiness about doing so, logic forces us to back Cork to cover the spread here.

Division One Recommendations

Dublin vs Kerry: Kerry @ 11/10 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Down vs Donegal: No Goalscorer @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)

Laois vs Mayo: Mayo -3pts @ 23/10 (Powers – alternative handicap)

Armagh vs Cork: Cork -3pts @ 11/10 (William Hill)

Even by preseason standards, the McGrath Cup in Munster is very much the poor relation of the four competitions. Due to the absence of Kerry and the straight knockout format that fails to allow sides to get any momentum up, it’s taking place below the radar this weekend with little or no national interest in the games taking place. Traditionally a lot of the third level institutions taking part in the McGrath Cup are among the weakest footballing colleges in Ireland, with sides like Limerick IT and Waterford IT very much out of their depth at this level of competition.

However in the midst of all this, Sigerson Cup champions UCC certainly add a heavyweight presence to the competition, while the bright and positive early start for Clare suggests that they too could be worthy contenders for this prize if they can keep up their decent form.

From a betting point of view, the battle between Waterford IT and Tipperary is a dead duck with the 1/12 Tipp men almost certain to win, while Cork IT are simply too unpredictable and can’t be trusted to play to form against a low profile but capable group from IT Tralee. Odds of 9/4 about IT Tralee would be worth watching for the simple reason that a little money would tell a long story at this level, however in the absence of any clear team information or flood of money for the Kerry college, this too is not a fixture where we’d like to make any strong recommendations.

Cork manager Conor Counihan has suggested in the national media that his team will be taking the McGrath Cup seriously and will be hoping to string together a run of games, however the fifteen starters that he has selected don’t exactly back up this assertion. Graham Canty might be a big name in the world of Gaelic Football after a stellar career but he’s spent a long time away from county action and will undoubtedly need plenty of playing time to get back up to the pace of the game. There is huge depth in Cork football so it’s not as if we’re expecting any of the players named to turn out to be a weak link, but even so it’s a raw team that hasn’t played together and will be a long way further back in their training than Clare. After all Cork and Kerry are the two counties that can say with complete and absolute confidence that they will be playing ball in late July, and with that safety net behind him, Conor Counihan and Jack O’Connor simply don’t have to hit the ground running to the same extent.Conor Counihan might be trying to do the Munster Council a favour in talking up the McGrath Cup so as to get bums on seats, but we’d be amazed if he genuinely afforded priority to this match.

The presence of Kilmurry-Ibrickane footballers on the Clare panel this year indicated that the Banner County finally might be able to pull together and start delivering on the potential that exists in Clare football, while the hard hitting style of football in the county is well suited to winter games. Their comprehensive win last weekend did come at the expense of an underwhelming UL team and David Moran’s injury undoubtedly played a big part, but even so it’s hard to fault any team who scored eighteen times in a January football match, no matter who their opponents were. Hills’ offer of 4/1 about Clare is very attractive in this context and well worth a small bet.

Boylesports appear to be out to get UCC in advance of their battle with Limerick, but on the face of things, it’s difficult to see quite why they are pursuing this policy. All of the other leading contenders for the Sigerson Cup with the exception of Queens – DCU, NUIG, UUJ and UCD – got off to winning starts, in some cases against some very decent opposition. UCC kept plenty in reserve in the higher education league, as they usually do, but even so any side defending a Sigerson Cup title is likely to be decent and odds of 8/11 against a Limerick team with four debutants in the forward line and short of several other leading players, they look like an outstanding bet in Rathkeale.

McGrath Cup Recommendations

Cork vs Clare: Clare to win @ 4/1 (Hills)

Limerick vs UCC: UCC @ 8/11 (Boylesports)

Following on from our breakdown of the lie of the land for the big ball players out there, it’s now time to turn our hand to their hurling counterparts and to make our projections for 2012. Listed below is the first part of our series incorporating all counties chasing provincial or Liam McCarthy honours. While we would love to extend the courtesy to the Ring/Rackard/Meaghar counties, unfortunately there is simply too much volatility at that level. One or two little things like an increase or decrease in attention from a county board that previously concentrated on football, or a couple of transfers of good club hurlers from other counties, could make a world of difference and while we do our best to pick up on all relevant information here at Starbets.ie, unfortunately every grapevine hides a few morsels of fruit deep within the branches.

The format is the same as was used for the football columns. Counties are ranked in order of how we see them right now, based on results and form, with the current bookmaker rankings in brackets and our prediction for whether they’ll be moving up or down the ladder over the next twelve months.

14. Westmeath (14 – Improvement)

One swallow does not make a summer, and while they had a good day against Carlow in the Leinster championship, they still deserve to be ranked behind the Dolmen county for the moment, as Carlow have been much more consistent in their play for the past few seasons. However the future for Westmeath hurling, in the medium to long term at least, looks bright. The small margin of their defeat to Kilkenny in this year’s Leinster minor hurling semi final was no fluke and neither was their comprehensive win over Offaly in O’Connor Park earlier in that competition. There are some excellent young hurlers coming up along the line in Westmeath and while 2012 might be a little early for a lot of them, the next five years should see the Lake county men improve hugely. We suspect they’ll begin by taking full advantage of their reprieve in the National Hurling league and by making a real push to win division 2A this spring.

13. Carlow (13 – Slight disimprovement)

For all the moaning and wailing from Limerick and Wexford, no county was more damaged by the decision to remake the national hurling league than Carlow. From a position where they were in a good competitive division 2, involving some winnable games and a chance to hurl against some “traditional” counties, they suddenly find themselves right back in with mostly Christy Ring counties. Crucially, they had a chance to avoid this fate but didn’t know it at the time. They made no effort in the last round of the league against Clare when they believed there was nothing at stake, instead resting some key players and blooding younger hurlers. As it turned out, a win in that fixture would have seen them replace Antrim in Division 1b. However having said all that, it’s hard to see where the improvement will come from next year. They’ve regressed at underage level, they still lack dominant players in central positions and while their Leinster championship clash with Laois would have been an ideal draw in 2011, under Teddy McCarthy, Laois should progress well this year.

12. Laois (12 – Improvement)

The decision to bring in one of the most decorated dual stars in the GAA’s history to take charge is a clear sign that Laois hurling intends to make real progress this year. Niall Rigney worked miracles in a difficult environment with the county in recent years, but McCarthy will command even more respect and should be able to get Laois hurling moving in the right direction this year. It’s harsh on Rigney to say that as the Portlaoise clubman is clearly one of the outstanding hurling managers in the game right now, but it’s a simple statement of fact that players will rally around a big name from outside quicker than one of their own. It’s been a long time since Laois people have been able to say with confidence that their best hurlers were all available for selection but they have plenty of glamour league ties to look forward to in Division 1B and a nice draw awaits them in the Leinster championship. Ridiculous though it might sound, Laois will feel they have the beating of Dublin. They don’t, but by shooting for the stars, they’ll still go a long way before they finally fall short.

11. Antrim (11 – Disimprovement)

There is a very real chance that they will have to work without their Loughgiel hurlers for long stretches of the league, and frankly, at any given time Antrim hurling looks capable of imploding. The current standoff with their referees, the debacle that was their attempt at fielding a decent team for the All Ireland semi final against Dublin and the long running bad blood between certain clubs all indicate that there are deep, structural problems in Antrim hurling. Many people in the county celebrated St Galls’ win over Dunloy in the club championship as a sign that hurling was making real progress in Belfast – time may tell that the result said more about Dunloy than it did about Galls. There’s simply no grounds for optimism here.

10. Wexford (10 – no change)

Wexford supporters will look at Offaly, ranked above them, and will ask questions as to why that should be after Wexford deservedly finished above the midlanders in the league. That was even after being asked to play the league game between the two counties in O’Connor Park, when home advantage is traditionally hugely important between these counties. The simple answer is that while they played hard to save their skin in the league, they got the benefit of playing Tipperary when Tipp were in second gear, and when it came to the championship Wexford were hugely disappointing. There are good young hurlers in the county but the sight of Oulart the Ballagh, containing half the county team, playing so poorly against Coolderry in Nowlan Park must have been hugely worrying for Liam Dunne. Indeed Dunne himself failed his tactical exams that day, coming off a distinct second best to Ken Hogan, and with so much work still to be done in the South East, it will be a few years before things get better for them.

9. Offaly (9 – Slight improvement)

As one of the big winners from the league reshuffle, Offaly have been handed a great chance to have a good year in 2012 and with Ollie Baker at the helm, they might just take it. Their one point defeat in Páirc Uí Chaoimh was a huge disappointment and a massive missed opportunity, but it also proved that they have a core group of hurlers capable of troubling the middle tier teams, even if they are still a long way off challenging the big guns. The long term prognosis for the county is very bleak as underage and academy results are appalling, but there is still a strong core group of players there and if David Kenny is finally granted the time to recover properly, they will have a spine capable of competing with anyone. Of course Shane Dooley’s intentions are vital and if he ends up staying in New York he will be almost impossible to replace, but for now they should be looking both to the league and to the Leinster championship with moderate optimism.

8. Cork (5 – Slight disimprovement)

After suggesting that Laois will improve for the recruitment of one famous dual star from Leeside, it seems hypocritical to suggest that the Rebel County themselves won’t benefit for the deployment of an even more famous dual star and former All Ireland winning manager. However 2011 was a terrible year for hurling in Cork and they can thank their lucky stars that they didn’t exit the championship in Páirc Uí Chaoimh against Offaly when a farcical lack of injury time saved them when on the ropes. Against Galway many of their bigger names didn’t appear interested and they just don’t seem to have the leadership they’ll need down the spine of the team. If Cork are good enough to secure a championship win over any of the top four or five counties in 2012, it will mean one of two things – either Jimmy Barry Murphy is a miracle worker, or else every player on the team owes Denis Walsh a huge apology for phoning it in under his leadership. We suspect it won’t be an issue.

And so, we come to the race for Christmas number one – the real Christmas number one. In the race to become the leading Gaelic Football county in Ireland, there’s no shortcut available, such as going through a reality TV show – it takes years of hard, painstaking work and as Donegal manager Jim McGuinness will certainly testify, there’s no point in playing to impress the paying public!

As always, counties are listed in order of Starbets ranking, but with the bookmaker ranking in brackets, calculated based on an aggregate of all 2012 All Ireland odds, followed by our prediction as to whether the county will be moving up or down the chart in 2012.

8. Tyrone (6 – Disimprovement)

Your columnist was sorely tempted to court publicity by ranking the Red Hand men outside of the top ten, and based on 2011 alone, we could have stood over that view. Their failure to make a real push in division two was worrying, particularly the dropped point against a very mediocre Meath team when anything less than a win was likely to prove fatal. However it would be foolish to ignore the incredible achievements of this county over the past decade. However while they should go well in the league this year, we expect them to be found out in the championship. Dublin and Donegal each exposed weaknesses in their team and tactics and while Mickey Harte is beyond criticism, it could be fast approaching the time when the players need to hear a new voice at the helm.

7. Down (8 – Disimprovement)

2011 was a disappointing year and the news that talisman Martin Clarke, along with their incredible young prospect Caolan Mooney, will be playing AFL instead of NFL next spring is deeply worrying from a Down perspective. Modern defences appear to have figured out how to counteract the threat of Benny Coulter and incredibly, the question marks surrounding the spine of the defence and indeed the midfield remain. Their scoring power gives them a chance against anybody, particularly in Croke Park, if they get back there. That’s a big “if” though.

6. Donegal (7 – Slight improvement)

Firstly, ranking Donegal outside of the top four even though they made the semi-finals may seem harsh, but their 2011 approach will only get you so far against good teams and right now, they would be underdogs, with this odds compiler at least, against any of the five counties yet to be named in this column. However the reason we think they could be destined to climb the ladder is the fact that they will be acutely aware that they need to evolve their approach and Jim McGuinness has both the mental acuity to recognise this and the quality of player available to implement a variety of different approaches. His players will follow him wherever he leads them, and to see how strongly he reacted to Kevin Cassidy’s part in Declan Bogue’s book, even though nothing was said, was instructive. Even more instructive was how none of the other Donegal players spoke out on behalf of Cassidy. They want to be part of Donegal’s footballing future, and rightly so.

5. Mayo (5 – Slight disimprovement)

After they laboured under John O’Mahony and struggled to deliver the success that the county craves, Ballintubber’s James Horan had a very promising first season in charge of Mayo, guiding his team to a Connacht title and a hugely significant All Ireland quarter final win over Cork. That result over the then All Ireland champions illustrated the potential that lies in this group of footballers, but the gulf in class in their All Ireland semi final meeting with Kerry made it very clear how much work remains to be done. As modern midfielders evolve into more mobile, all round footballers, the O’Shea partnership remains something of a throwback to a bygone era. It would a brave man who would bet against the Breaffy men on a tight pitch where the ability to play good contact football is paramount, but if the goal is to beat Dublin and Kerry, one suspects that a makeover will be needed in that section since their immobility would be taken apart against that standard of opponent.

4. Kildare (4 – Improvement)

No team was treated as badly by lady luck in 2011 as the Lily Whites, and on the grounds that the break of the ball evens itself out over time, they clearly have to be well watched in 2012. Kieran McGeeney has complete and utter respect from his players and crucially, he has them implementing a system whereby the success of the system is dependent on their workrate and sticking to the plan, rather than the mercurial talent of a group of individuals. Even John Doyle, the star man of the squad, is being deployed in a more workmanlike role. For as long as they continue to push on, they will continue to improve, and Kildare should come very, very close to All Ireland honours in 2012. The danger for the county is that in every sense, they are burning a lot of fuel. Players cannot continue to put in this level of effort for too long, while equally their county board can ill afford to continue to underwrite one of if not the most expensive county team to run in Ireland. When their star does burn out we suspect it will crash spectacularly, but in the meantime they continue to ascend.

3. Cork (3 – Slight improvement)

The Rebels appeared to regress in 2011, losing in Munster yet again and coughing up an early lead to go out somewhat pitifully against Mayo. As such they had to be downgraded from their top spot, however it would be easy to forget the horrendous injury list that Conor Counihan had to deal with. You can’t lose so many players of that calibre, mainly in the one sector of the field, and expect to be unaffected. With a full strength panel to choose from in 2012, they should find themselves right there in contention yet again.

2. Kerry (1 – Disimprovement)

Judging Kerry based on their 2012 showing is difficult, in that they did what they had to do in the championship, but until the final, they never really had to go into their higher gears. They were fortunate to get what was a relatively kind run to the final, but they took full advantage and there was no question but that Dublin got what decisions were going in that Croke Park decider. Nonetheless the issue of their ageing panel remains a very real one and the possibility that Colm Cooper will be denied a necessary operation until after March because of his involvement with Dr Crokes is far from ideal. Their younger footballers don’t seem to be of the necessary calibre so we’re going to stick our necks out and say that Kerry will slip a little in 2012.

1. Dublin (2 – No change)

It may seem lazy to just put the winners in the number one slot, but for several years now, people have said that Dublin lacked the ability to deliver on the really big day. This year they rode their luck a little certainly, but they also played some very good football when they needed to and to rescue the All Ireland final as they did was very impressive. The self belief that they will take from that can only be beneficial and with that in mind, no one county looks better poised to take the biggest prizes in the game in 2012.

Twas the month before Christmas, and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even in the O’Byrne Cup.

The county players currently training frantically and preparing for the 2012 season might beg to differ on the concept of the “winter break”, but for the GAA public, the only action to be found during the month of December is at your local club AGM, where treasurers give out about physios, hurlers give out about football, managers complain about lack of commitment and political coups are executed to varying degrees of success. It might be the kind of drama that members of soccer and rugby clubs can only dream of, but it’s still of little use to the betting public, since not even the most foolhardy bookmaker would like to start betting on who will be installed as the new PRO of Ballygobackwards hurling club, much less whether or not they’ll pass that motion suggesting a change in the structure of the under-14 championship.

However those betting firms out there are very conscious of the fact that if they don’t offer us something, all our money would instead get wasted on folly like Christmas presents or brussels sprouts, so rather than allow such a ridiculous scenario to come about, they’ve suddenly burst out of the blocks with betting for next year’s national football leagues.

It’s very early in the game to make any strong recommendations, however now is a good time to share our early thoughts, perhaps picking off some long shots that may dip in price before a ball is ever thrown in. Looking first at division one of the National Football League, and it’s safe to say that most punters will stay with the big three of Cork, Kerry and Dublin, with Kerry perhaps likely to prove the least popular selection of these three. Colm Cooper will miss at least the first two rounds of the competition against Dublin and Armagh due to his involvement with Dr Crokes, as will several other of the Killarney based players, which will be a stumbling block for a lot of potential backers, however Kerry are well used to losing the first round of the league, while Armagh will certainly be a lot more depleted for their round two meeting due to the absence of the Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Kerry’s reputation as non-triers in the league might seem justified in the light of their comparitively stronger record in championship football, however the 3/1 on offer from William Hill and Boylesports could yet be a decent price. After all, anyone backing the Kingdom at that price for each National League campaign during the last decade would still be showing a profit now after outright wins in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

The fixture list could have been more kind to Jack O’Connor and his panel as it will send Kerry to both Croke Park and Páirc Uí Chaoimh in the spring, however there are Kerry footballers who have played more county games in Croke Park than in Tralee, while the Leeside venue is hardly unfamiliar territory either.

Of the outsiders in this division, Donegal at 10/1 with Boylesports looks the most intriguing. The Kevin Cassidy saga could be a distraction, but Jim McGuinness’ strongest attribute is his ability to handle the mental side of management and he will undoubtedly find some way to turn a crisis into an opportunity, even if it does look to this outsider like a largely self made crisis. Getting four home games is very important to a remote county like Donegal and their week three battle with Cork at home will be their most significant fixture. They have a great chance of starting off with two wins and could very easily be top of the table if they can cash in on Cork’s huge round trip. While they’d have preferred to play Armagh early in the year when the Crossmaglen players wouldn’t be available, otherwise they can have few complaints about the schedule.

James Horan has made it clear in his first season in charge that he will, rightly, use the league for experimentation and with a good championship behind him, he’s under no pressure to get results next spring. They certainly won’t come easily to Mayo with a very real possibility that they will be underdogs in six out of seven matches. For the moment, we can safely draw a line through them in terms of potential winners, as we can through Armagh who will miss the Crossmaglen players for several rounds. Indeed we could possibly dismiss Down, who have concerns over key central positions and will also miss out on the influence of Martin Clarke, but they still might have an outsider’s chance if they avoid shipping too much punishment in the early rounds.

Other than the 10/1 about Donegal from Boylesports, there’s no price that we would say with 80% confidence will be shorter by the start of the season, so we won’t recommend diverting too much of the Christmas money just yet. But don’t go throwing it all in the collection plate at midnight mass – the New Year isn’t that far away.

Galway has come and gone for another year, and while we will miss it in one sense, perhaps that is no harm from a punting perspective, given how competitive the races are there.

The show moves on and three today as we enter into August.

4:05 Cork – Verdict: Won In The Dark (6-4 General) was let down by some jumping errors last time out here at Cork and we will give him the vote to recoup those losses today. Sabrina Harty’s gelding looked to be travelling much better than Oneeightofamile before making a complete hash of the third last and also the final flight when trying to rally. The quicker ground and slightly shorter trip look all in the selection favour and he can gain revenge on John Kiley’s horse today.

4:50 Naas – Verdict: Lord Kenmare (Each way 9-1 Paddy Power) has been struggling to recapture the excellent handicap form he displayed in the spring and summer of 2010, and although he is obviously not as good this year, he has been running better lately and might be able to exploit an opportunity here in the lowest grade contest he has ran in for a while. Michael Halford’s gelding stayed on well for fourth behind Joe Eile here last time and might have finished closer if they had gone a bit quicker early on. Well drawn in stall one and with the benefit of one of the best apprentices in Conor Hoban, he looks to have decent frame prospects.

7:25 Carlisle – Verdict: Race Favourite Neptune Equester looked ahead of the handicapper when winning here over a month ago, but he did not look an easy ride and might not be a suitable horse for an apprentice jockey in this all lady jockeys race.

Accordingly, I will take him on with Sendali (Each way 8-1 general) who was very impressive last time at Doncaster, when winning by seven lenghts and might be up to defying a ten pounds higher mark. Sendali is again ridden by one of the best lady jockeys in Lucy Horner and I could envisage her getting first run on her rivals here and proving difficult to peg back.

Some interesting scoring bets are on offer this weekend, particularly in Satuday’s Cork/Mayo clash.

Enda Varley has been drafted into the Mayo side at the expense of Jason Doherty, but it’s a big ask for a young player going to Croke Park to turn up and score heavily against a rugged and battle hardened Cork defence.

And with Doherty, who scored seven goals in the league waiting in the wings, there is added pressure on Varley to deliver on the day.

Varley is available at 10/11 to score under 1.5 points, and this looks a decent bet.

Cork’s Fintan Goold grabbed 1-1 against Down last weekend, but is not renowned as a prolific scorer. Team mate Paddy Kelly is a quality player too, but, again, not a prolific scorer. You can get both players to score under 1.5 points at 6/5 with Paddy Power.

Down were wide open at the back last weekend, but Mayo, with Kevin McLoughlin drifting back from the half forward shouldn’t be as badly exposed, provided they don’t bottle it on the day.

And Cork will do well to repeat a display like they put in last Saturday a week later, particularly without key forwards Daniel Goulding and Ciaran Sheehan.

In the same game we also like the look of Alan Freeman to score more than Goold.
 Freeman caused Dublin all sorts of problems in the league at Croke Park and can be had at 4/5, although regular Dubs full back Rory O’Carroll was on sabbatical in France at the time.

Freeman is a class act and a real goal threat. As well as this he will be on the edge of the square, whereas Goold is likely to be at wing forward.

Those four bets are all worth a punt, but unfortunately they cannot be done as doubles or trebles.

Elsewhere, Donegal look great value at 2/1 against Kildare with William Hill, in what appears a 50/50 match.

Kildare struggled badly when Dublin packed their defence in the Leinster semi-final, and Donegal will do they same, although Kildare may be able to burst Donegal’s tackles that bit easier.

Donegal will also have Tomas O’Connor, who was dropped for the Dublin game, to contend with.

Kildare’s long range shooting can be suspect too, and a few early wides from the lily whites would see Donegal very much in this match.

Donegal beat Laois by a point on their last trip to Croke Park – the Division 2 final – and they played the last half hour with 14-men, finishing strongly to show their new found mettle.

Selections:

• Donegal to beat Kildare – 2/1 William Hill
• Enda Varley to score less than 1.5 points v Cork – 10/11 Paddy Power
• Alan Freeman to score more than Fintan Goold – 4/5 Paddy Power
• Fintan Goold Cork to score under 1.5 points – 6/5 Paddy Power
• Paddy Kelly Cork to score under 1.5 points – 6/5 Paddy Power

The four senior games may be capturing the national attention and the vast majority of the GAA column inches this week, but with three long odds on favourites and Kildare also expected to win (by this column at least!) punters searching for a closely contested tie will have to look instead to the minor ranks and the four upcoming All Ireland quarter finals.

The headline fixture is the meeting of Dublin and Cork in O’Moore Park on Monday, and it’s fair to say that all previews of this game will focus on the same thing – that this Dublin team are flying under Dessie Farrell, and that they should win well.

They may do, but if Cork have Conor Dorman back to fill their full back berth, the young Rebels will be a much better team than the side that lost so tamely to Tipperary in the Munster final. Cork spent far too much time in that Munster decider chopping and changing their alignment in their back line and against a competent team like Tipperary, that was unforgivable. Dorman faces a huge task taking on the wonderfully talented Ciarán Kilkenny, however if he can curtail the young dual star, Cork will have gone a long way towards securing a win here.

Dublin are probably the best team left in this championship, but people forget that these are teenagers, who are invariably prone to bad days. 4/11 is too short to consider a bet on the Dubs against a Cork side that are capable of an upset.

The other Leinster vs Munster clash sees Tipperary taking on Meath and after putting both Cork and Kerry to the sword, despite trailing Kerry by ten points early in the game, this Tipperary team have more than proved their worth. Meath limped through to a Leinster Final largely due to landing on what was by far the easier side of the draw within their province, and they look to be comfortably the weakest side still in the competition. They should have no answer to TJ Ryan, who is one of the most promising talents in the entire competition, and if Ladbrokes release a handicap by Monday, it would be well worth backing Tipperary to cover.

The meeting of Cavan and Galway is one of the trickiest games to call, simply because Galway underachieved so spectacularly in the Connacht final. Word out west is that this team is very fast and fluid and they were simply unable to get going in the miserable conditions that prevailed on Connacht Final day, however the absence of any notable scalps so far this year is a worry. Some wonderful footballers from St Jarlaths have a lot to offer the teenage Tribesmen, but Cavan probably should be slight favourites based on a great performance in the Ulster final and a wonderful result against a hotly fancied Tyrone team in the Ulster semi-final.

The best value bet of the week looks to be Roscommon minors, 8/11 to overcome Armagh in Croke Park on Saturday afternoon. Ross Shannon has moulded a wonderful group of footballers in Roscommon this year and more than a few pundits within the county feel that this group is at least as good as the All Ireland winning team of 2006.

They’ve got plenty of size and power, but they still play a fast and effective style of football that should prosper in the open spaces of Croke Park. This Roscommon team have actually played in Croke Park already this year and that experience will stand to them, however more than any other factor, it’s simply hard to ascertain why Armagh are so highly rated. They accounted for Down in the Ulster semi-final and since big things were expected of Down this year, that result saw them rocket up the betting – however they failed to score for the entire second half of the Ulster Final and don’t look potent up front.

Roscommon just look to be a good cut above and at 8/11, they represent the best value bet of the eight teams playing this weekend.

Sunday’s battle between Cork and Mayo, which was already likely to be the most informative and intriguing contest of the weekend, was made all the more appealing on Thursday evening with the news that the spot in the Cork forward line that was vacated by Daniel Goulding’s injury is to be filled by none other than Nicholas Murphy, the experienced and powerful midfielder who only lost his place in the past few years. Or that’s the official line emerging from Cork, at least.

If James Horan is at home on Thursday night unsure of how Conor Counihan plans to use the Carrigaline player, then he can be forgiven since on the face of it, the selection makes little or no sense. Alan O’Connor and Aidan Walsh have their flaws, but they are two fantastic fielders who are playing outstanding football this year, as they would have to be to keep a player of Murphy’s ability on the bench. A third fielding option is quite perplexing, particularly when Cork are always able to drop Pierce O’Neill back into the middle sector and let him take his chances under the dropping ball. Murphy might be an outstanding fielder, but Cork are already ridiculously well served in that regard.

The old school tactic of playing long balls into a big full forward like Murphy is always worthy of consideration, but Cork’s style of play doesn’t really involve long high balls forward, and it’s not as if a re-invention of their tactics was needed. It would be one thing if the Rebels had limped over the line against Down and had looked ponderous in attack, but they were magnificent going forward, albeit against a very poor defence. No manager would think a different approach was needed after a game like that, which leads us back to option three, and the most likely scenario – that Murphy actually won’t start, and that Fiachra Lynch will line out in the full forward line as he did once Barry O’Driscoll was withdrawn last weekend.

Some managers are quite cut-throat and would name any team under the sun if they thought it would help their case, but most are human, and act as such. Naming Fiachra Lynch and not playing him would be seen as harsh on the young attacker, while Murphy is experienced, he’s a proven team player and he’d happily play this role if he felt it served his county.

Either way, one thing this whole exercise proves is that understandably, with Colm O’Neill, Ciarán Sheehan, Daniel Goulding and now Barry O’Driscoll out, Cork are genuinely running out of options for forwards. Fiachra Lynch is simply not of the same standard as the first three of those injured players at the very least, while it also means that Conor Counihan has no realistic option to freshen things up if Paul Kerrigan or Pierce O’Neill fail to find their form, or indeed if their injury jinx strikes again.

Another key aspect to Sunday afternoon’s clash is that while Cork are unquestionably the best team in Ireland at winning primary possession, there is a real case to be made for Mayo as the next best team in that category. Kevin McLoughlin and Alan Dillon have been outstanding this year at hoovering up breaking ball, while the O’Shea partnership has worked really well at spoiling opposition jumpers and winning their battles on the ground.

Cork are used to winning 70% of primary possession in every game, but they could find that if any side is able to go 50/50 against them, it could be Mayo. Against both Galway and Roscommon, Mayo dominated those trench battles, and while the selection of a half forward like Kevin McLoughlin would have been a luxury they could not afford in years gone by, when they had to pick six “scoring” forwards in order to hopefully find three or four on a good day, this year Mayo have a forward line that has done well in difficult conditions.

Thirteen scores in each of their last two games might not be a huge haul, but in the circumstances it was a decent tally, while they’ve replaced the only forward who didn’t really make an impression in either game. Enda Varley’s introduction at the expense of Jason Doherty adds real pace to the Mayo forward line and while he might not have Doherty’s goalscoring instincts, NUIG Student Doherty simply hasn’t made the step up to senior championship football after some good league displays.

Ultimately Cork are the better team, they’ve got the confidence that winning an All Ireland gives, and they could win this with plenty to spare. However James Horan won’t be one bit worried that his team are being written off, particularly since they actually haven’t played that badly, while Cork are ripe for a fall after putting Down to the sword in such spectacular fashion. If Cork get through this week, chances are we’ll tip them up to beat Kerry and to win the All Ireland. But with Ladbrokes offering 9/2 (cut in from 5/1) about a Mayo win, well the value has to be with the 2011 Connacht champions – a title that the media might be dismissing as the equivalent of a Tommy Murphy Cup, but was still hard earned by the Mayomen this year.

The bookies may have endured a bloodbath last weekend after the favourites went down the card of provincial and qualifier football ties, but Ladbrokes have come out fighting this week with a few generous offers on the favourites for this weekend’s six intercounty senior fixtures.

The headline fixtures may be taking place on Sunday, games this column will revisit later in the week, however there is a strong case to be made for a treble of Cork, Kildare and Wexford, a treble that pays out a little over 7/5 at the odds currently on offer from Ladbrokes. Boarding the multiple train might seem like a delayed reaction after last week, but each of these three favourites look very well placed to secure their place in the last eight of the All Ireland race this week.

The easiest and most straightforward call is Kildare to beat Derry. Derry’s lack of creative spark in the absence of Eoghan Bradley was exposed last weekend and with Kildare motoring nicely through the qualifiers, they should have the measure of their northern counterparts. They were the better side when these two teams met last year and this time around they appear to have stepped up to another level.

Kildare are the much more familiar side with Croke Park, while Derry’s inability to create scores should see this match resolved very early. Kildare broke from their usual pattern of playing twice as well in the second half last week, but even at 70% pace they should have enough for a Derry team who suffered a real setback last week. The wild card here is if Derry can get Conleth Gilligan more involved, as the experienced corner forward was wasted roaming out around the field, but even then the Lillies should have more than enough answers.

Wexford and Limerick would probably have been a relatively even match if priced this time last year, however Limerick’s presence in the fourth round of the qualifiers owes a lot to a very soft draw and they should be overmatched this week. Against both Waterford and Offaly the Treaty men really struggled to win clean ball at midfield, but they compensated for this with an all out defence that absorbed a lot of pressure before hitting teams on the break with good pacey possession football up along the field.

The tactical naivety of Offaly and Waterford played into Maurice Horan’s hands, however he won’t get things all his own way this week as Jason Ryan is a very shrewd operator who will devise a strategy to minimise the space offered to Ger Collins and Ian Ryan. Players like Ben Brosnan and Ciarán Lyng are well able to engineer space in a crowded defence and they’ll draw plenty of frees, enough to keep the scoreboard ticking over and to ensure that Limerick don’t have a big lead to defend.

Not for the first time this season in a crucial game, Waterford shot themselves in the foot with a red card at just the wrong time against Limerick and provided Wexford’s discipline holds up, they should have more than enough in the tank to get through this Portlaoise battle.

Finally 2/5 about Cork may seem like a short price when one allows for the solitary point that was between these two sides in last year’s All Ireland final, but any All Ireland final is simply about getting over the line and last year Cork were very much in a weaker place mentally, simply because they didn’t have those Celtic Crosses in their bedroom lockers at home.

Down felt empowered by Croke Park, as they always do, while Cork needed to put that All Ireland title on the record to shake off the reputation of Croke Park chokers. This year the Rebels have played some very good football both in the league and the championship with that monkey off their backs, with the exception of a bad half an hour in Tralee, and while they’ll still need a win over Kerry in Croke Park to really lay their demons to rest, they will have no such baggage against Down.

The Ulster men haven’t yet caught fire in this championship, largely because they haven’t had to, but they’ve also found themselves under real pressure from teams like Leitrim and Clare. Even Antrim matched them for long spells, but just came undone in a short goal spree during the second half. Croke Park will again seem like a home from home for the Down men, but there are just too many areas of the field where Cork should have the advantage this week and they should bring home the treble with a couple of points to spare.

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