Technically, the race for the All Ireland football championship got underway a fortnight ago in Gaelic Park in New York, but with all due respect to the Exiles, the real business starts this weekend, with action taking place in all four provinces. We’ll have a look at the matches later today, but here’s our antepost look at the four provincial championships and our recommendations, starting down south, where Waterford travel to Limerick with a real possibility of making a Munster Final for the first time in over half a century.

Munster SFC

Last year all four of the weaker counties in Munster faced one of the two traditional powers in their first game. No team got within ten points of Cork or Kerry, and the gap between the best and the rest seemed to be as wide as was ever the case. Nothing that has happened so far in 2012 suggested that things are about to change, as Tipperary regressed in their league campaign and the other three counties all failed to escape the basement division. The draw has been kind to Limerick, Clare and Waterford as one of those three will contest a Munster decider, but in the absence of an each way option, that’s really not much use to us. So it’s down to Cork or Kerry, and as usual there is little to call between the two.

This year the pair would be due to meet in Páirc Uí Chaoimh, they are odds against and the Rebel attack is moving a lot better for the return of some of their injured stars. On that basis, they get a tentative nod.

Connacht SFC

Out west, we know that Mayo will be in the final since there is no way they’ll slip up against either Leitrim or London. We know that 8/13 corresponds with a match price of 8/11, which would be reasonable enough if Galway got to the final and were in good scoring form – something which is very possible now that Michael Meehan is close to a full recovery. Nonetheless, Galway face two very dangerous banana skins en route, starting this weekend in Dr Hyde Park. On that basis, Mayo are great value because this 8/13 will look like a massive price if the Tribesmen slip up.

Of the outsiders, Sligo make marginally more appeal than Roscommon simply because they are available at 12/1 and have one less hurdle to cross, but the smart money is still best placed on Mayo.

Ulster SFC

Now the analysis starts to get complicated. What looked like a very handy draw for Down has got a little trickier now that Peter Canavan has made some progress at the helm of Fermanagh, while despite the absence of any real reason for this line of thought, we have a niggling feeling that there could be a kick in Antrim yet. However in a provincial championship littered with minefields, it’s still hard to pick out better value than James McCartan’s charges. Tyrone were flying during the league but Armagh’s performances in Division 1 were very decent as well and that was largely operating without their Crossmaglen players. Donegal should cruise past Cavan this week but they won’t have it easy against Derry in the next round, and neither will they have a huge tactical advantage on all other teams who will be much better prepared for their strategy. Even at best prices, it works out at 4/9 that the team from the good side of the draw wins the final. Out of those, only Armagh at 17/2 with Victor Chandler looks anyway attractive, and it’s very much the poor relation of the five recommended bets below.

Ultimately, Down are odds on to reach the Ulster final and if they get that far, they have the pedigree to put their best foot forward and cause teams problems. Certainly 11/2 outright is a decent price, thinking along the same lines as we did in Connacht. If Tyrone get there, those odds will prove correct. If Tyrone slip up, then this could work out aas a great value bet.

Leinster SFC

From a value betting point of view, this prediction could not be easier or more straightforward. Kildare are 3/1 with VCBet and they make massive appeal at that price. With Meath going so poorly right now, there is a case for saying that of the eleven teams in Leinster, Kildare and the four weakest counties make up one half of the draw. Meath supporters might disagree, but at what point do we start realising that there is a lot more to Meath’s difficulties than one man from Monaghan callen McEnaney? Their under-21 footballers were very poor, Joe Sheridan has missed a lot of time, they haven’t freshened up their team and the players know that the manager is hanging by a thread.

Wicklow’s division 4 title was a worthwhile achievement, much more meaningful than anything they did under Mick O’Dwyer with the possible exception of their Leinster championship win over Kildare, but the standard of football in that fixture was pedestrian in comparison to what Kildare will produce. Offaly are in utter, utter disarray and will be happy just to avoid damage limitation in the Leinster quarter final, while Carlow show no signs of improvement.

Of course Dublin have to be respected, but they have a much tougher route to the final, and even if they do get there, they are entitled to be considered favourites by a point or two, at most. One contentious decision split the teams in 2011 and anything other than 4/6 vs 6/4 would be incorrect betting in such a hypothetical final. Kildare at 3/1 are by far the best value provincial bet available right now.

Provincial Championships – Antepost Recommendations

Munster SFC: Cork @ 6/5 (Hills)

Connacht SFC: Mayo @ 8/13 (Powers, Stan James, Hills)

Ulster SFC: Armagh @ 17/2 (BetVictor), Down @ 11/2 (Boylesports)

Leinster SFC: Kildare @ 3/1 (BetVictor)

There’s plenty of midweek action in the GAA this week and the crowds should be out in force in Dublin in particular with a full round of the Dublin senior football championship taking place tonight in the capital. There’s also minor football championship in Munster, as Clare and Cork have home advantage for their knockout semi final fixtures with Kerry and Tipperary respectively. Here Starbets is happy to advise a double that pays 2/1 with Boylesports, based on championship and challenge match form so far.

Our first leg, unsurprisingly enough, is Kerry to beat Clare at Cusack Park in Ennis. Clare had a massive first round win over Waterford and Mickey Ned O’Sullivan has been talking up this challenge as if Clare are world beaters – they aren’t. They got plenty of momentum up in their first round clash but Waterford put little or no effort into that team, and while there are a few nice forwards in the Clare side, they’re likely to be found out against a team of Kerry’s quality. Clare got badly found out when they tried to step up against decent opposition on the challenge match circuit and while they have got a good eye for goal, defensively they are very poor and they don’t have the ability to shut down a well designed attack.

Kerry have a relatively young minor team this year with a third of their starting team underage again next year – but not too much should be read into their first round result against Tipperary. Tipp took the field with largely the same team that won the All Ireland last year, and they were always likely to have a big advantage in experience and cohesion against a less well-gelled side, with new management and style. Nonetheless our suspicion is that William Hill are the bookmaker on the ball here and that their odds of 5/1 about a Clare win is much closer to the mark.Clare have secured plenty of big wins over weak opposition in recent years, but they’ve never really stepped up and delivered against good opposition. We expect Kerry to have a strong say in the destination of this All Ireland titel yet, even though they’re probably a little bit short of the standard required to win.

Boylesports are best priced at 1/3 about a Kerry win in Ennis and they’re also best priced at 5/4 about a home win for Cork against All Ireland champions Tipperary. Last year these two counties met in the Munster final and we advised a bet on the Tipp men, but that was due to price. This year price again dictates and while this should be a very competitive fixture, Cork are moving very well under the guidance of Nemo Rangers man Ephie Fitzgerald and they look well poised to give a good account of themselves in front of their home supporters. Certainly they shouldn’t be odds against.

Tipperary manager David Power has had to operate with three of his players also hurling underage for the county but even so he has guided his team to plenty of good results this year on the challenge match circuit. Cork have lost several matches but they have been playing very high class opposition in the shape of Dublin and Kildare and should benefit for those results, even though they have lost a few times out.

This Cork team rounded off their preparations with a comfortable win over Offaly in Tullamore last week, the same Offaly team that drew with Tipperary the previous week. With great strength down the middle of the team and really sharp forwards, Cork can prevail in this tie.

Munster MFC Recommendation

Cork to beat Tipperary, Kerry to beat Clare, Double @ 2/1 (Boylesports)

It’s a peculiar league system where one of the six teams play two games less than four of the five others, but that’s exactly how it panned out in division 1A this year. Waterford ended their campaign a lot earlier than Kilkenny and Cork, who played out a surprisingly one sided final last Sunday in Semple Stadium, while Dublin and Galway at least had the benefit of a high class pair of fixtures to decide who made the drop to Division 1B. As a result some teams are better exposed than others, but based on what we’ve seen, here’s the Starbets rundown on the leading contenders for the All Ireland title and how their league performances grade in our estimation.

Kilkenny – A

Sunday’s performance brought about a spectacular upgrade since the Cats had been a bit hit and miss up to this point, but their demolition job on a decent Cork team has seen their odds plummet to a best price of 4/5 in the market, which is nearly as short as they’ve ever been at this time of year. The injury to Michael Fennelly is another concern for Brian Cody hot on the heels of injuries to Richie Power, Michael Rice and the long term absence of Henry Shefflin, but their best performance of the Spring came with all of these key men absent, while supposedly “fringe” players like Paddy Hogan, Richie Doyle, TJ Reid, Cillian Buckley and Colin Fennelly came up trumps.

Our view here at Starbets is that 4/5 is a bit short – after all there is every chance that if Kilkenny are to win the All Ireland, they’ll have to go through all four of the other five counties rated as the main contenders in the betting – but right now, they’re in as good a place as Brian Cody could hope for and so they’d have to get an A grade.

Cork – C

So much of the league went so well for Jimmy Barry Murphy’s men, but unlike Kilkenny, injuries are not as easily dealt with down by the Lee. Dónal Óg Cusack is arguably the most influential goalkeeper ever to wield a camán and Martin Coleman turned out to be a poor replacement last Sunday. More importantly, several of their frontline starters were badly exposed and while some of that could be put down to a bad day, the result calls into question a lot of what was achieved during the regular season. Waterford were clearly in bad shape when the two counties met in the first round, and the visit of Kilkenny to Páirc Uí Chaoimh is clearly to be taken with a pinch of salt now too. Take all that away and there’s not much left.

Tipperary – D

A D grade may seem harsh for a team that finished third in the league, but aside from a comprehensive dismissal of a poor Waterford team, Tipperary never got going in this campaign and if they are genuinely second favourites for the All Ireland title, then they clearly have been keeping a lot in reserve. Frankly, this league campaign defies further analysis – Tipperary played with experimental teams throughout, few of their less proven players made a real impact but the real test will only come in the Munster championship when they are all hands on deck again.

Waterford – D

Waterford displayed an immaculate sense of timing in this league campaign, producing one good performance when they needed it most in Galway, before beating Dublin at home when Anthony Daly’s men had nothing to play for. Staying in Division 1A is a huge boost to the county but they proved how far off the pace they are in their games against the traditional powers and clearly are still hugely dependent on Eoin Kelly and John Mullane if they are to contend for a Munster title. The news that Pauric Mahony is now set to miss the entire summer is a huge blow and realistically Waterford are not so much hiding in the long grass as much as they are hiding in the Amazonian rain forest right now.

Galway – B

It was a Spring of ups and downs for the Tribesmen, who started well against Dublin, put in two very solid performances against Tipperary and Cork before ending the regular season with two disastrous outings against Waterford and Kilkenny. However the relegation battles with Dublin were the making of their season and now Anthony Cunningham is entitled to feel reasonably optimistic about the prospects of success for his young panel. Joe Canning’s form remains critical to their cause – his second half display in Tullamore is the only reason Galway didn’t go down to Division 1B – but as is by now customary for this time of year, Galway seem to be in a very good place.

Dublin – D

Dublin hurled well this Spring and can feel somewhat unfortunate to have gone down after playing well in basically every match, other than week one against Galway and their dead rubber game against Waterford. Nonetheless this league campaign also highlighted the limitations in the Dublin attack and the deficiencies that need to be addressed before taking on Kilkenny in the championship. Conal Keaney remains their star man and all this league campaign did is prove how badly he is needed. Elsewhere they are well able to win ball and their working of possession up the field is good, but with the exception of one freak day against Kilkenny, they never scored more than 23 points during the Spring. In modern hurling when the average winning total in the championship is 24 points, that simply won’t do.

Having seen Cork in the flesh three times in 2011, not to mention several other occasions on TV, this columnist would have to admit that our expectations for them in 2012 were low. Of course any county with a hurling population as large as that in Cork will always have players to call on, but at every level, things seemed disorganised down south and frankly, if Jimmy Barry Murphy had only managed to preserve division 1A status in 2012, that would have been a decent achievement. Instead he has completely turned things around and their place in the decider at Thurles on Sunday is a testament to the incredible leadership qualities that he brings to the table.

When Cork were preparing to meet Kilkenny in the round robin stages of the convinced, we were not yet convinced as to the authenticity of this “revolution”. We were judging them by their hurling, which against a middling Galway team, had been shown up to be less than spectacular the previous week. However Cork are one of the few counties who don’t tip the hat to Kilkenny and when they put themselves in a good position in Páirc Uí Chaoimh, they closed out the result.

This week they face the Cats again with the National League Trophy up for grabs and now that Cork hurling is beginning to rediscover the self-belief that usually comes side by side with the blood and bandages jerseys, Brian Cody will be acutely aware that while another national trophy for Kilkenny would be welcome, Cork are fast becoming the main challengers to Kilkenny for the All Ireland and even more important will be the re-assertion of Kilkenny dominance as soon as possible. Of course the problem with that is that the Cats are working very short-handed, all the more so now that Richie Power, front runner for hurler of the year, sustained an injury playing with Carrickshock against James Stephens at the weekend and so will be unavailable for selection until the Leinster championship at the earliest.

Add that to the absence of Henry Shefflin, Aidan Fogarty and Michael Rice, and the result is that Kilkenny are using forwards that either aren’t the finished product yet, or will never be, and that’s allowing for the return of Richie Hogan this week. Conservatively, Shefflin and Power would be worth two or three extra points each if they came back in – so if Cork can’t beat the Cats now, without those players, what chance would they have in August or September? One thing’s for sure – either Cork are in with a great chance to win this week, or else they have no chance of winning an All Ireland later this year. Jimmy Barry Murphy doesn’t have the same star names to call on, but Cork have a very settled team, even allowing for the unfortunate injury to Donal Óg Cusack, and they don’t look weak in any sector of the field. They need to win this fixture to keep building on their confidence and can ill afford a heavy defeat in their last big fixture before the Munster championship.

At the start of the week, before the news broke about Power’s injury, lines of 4/9 and 2/5 about Kilkenny were common. Now it’s generally 8/15 or 4/7 about a Kilkenny win inside 70 minutes. William Hill are the only company holding odds of 15/8 about the Rebels and while Kilkenny could still produce a big performance and win well, the value seems to lie on the side of the Munster county. However even though 15/8 is attractive, there is a lot of volatility here so our inclination is to go with lower stakes, and a higher potential reward. Take Cork to win by 4-6 points at 8/1.

Paddy Powers also have a refund offer this week where they are returning all losing goalscorer bets if in form players Eoin Larkin or Patrick Horgan score the first goal of the game between them. Cork full forward Paudie O’Sullivan is a 7/1 shot with the betting firm and while JJ Delaney at full back for Kilkenny is no soft touch, he will concede three or four inches in height to his direct opponent here. Expect Cork to look to O’Sullivan early and often and with the safety net of the refund offer in place, 7/1 makes great appeal. The absence of Cathal Naughton from the line up also plays into the hands of this bet. Naughton is a hard runner who drives for goals and would force O’Sullivan to pull out and create space. Conor Lehane resumes in the team this week and while Lehane is no slouch either, he’s a much more natural striker of the ball and will take points from distance rather than driving at goal, or alternatively he’ll look to pick out O’Sullivan with a pass. All these factors, combined with the refund offer, make the 7/1 worthy of our second recommendation.

National Hurling League Final Recommendations

Winning Margin: Cork by 4-6pts @ 8/1 (Hills, Ladbrokes)

First Goalscorer: Paudie O’Sullivan @ 7/1 (Powers)

When Tyrone and Kildare met on the first weekend of the National Football League season, also at Croke Park, Kildare were generally priced by the bookies at 8/13 or 4/7 to take the win. Fast forward nearly twelve weeks and the same two sides are back at Croke Park, only this time, Tyrone carry the favourites’ mantle into the fixture. We start our analysis of Sunday’s double header by asking – is this justified?

Tyrone vs Kildare

Are Tyrone a better team than we thought on the 1st of February this year? Absolutely. Peter Harte has gone from being the centre of a tug’o'war in the McKenna Cup to becoming an actual contender for footballer of the year. Veterans Owen Mulligan and Stephen O’Neill are balancing an otherwise youthful attack, and they’ve won seven games on the spin while still not feeling the need to ask too much of their talisman, Seán Cavanagh. However while they are a very strong group and closer to the All Ireland standard than we thought, their team selection for this game causes us a little concern. Conor Gormley is a real horses for courses selection at full back to take on Tomás O’Connor, but around the middle there is a legitimate concern that Tyrone might not have the same energy and power as their Kildare counterparts.

Up front, Tyrone’s injury jinx has struck again and Kyle Coney will join Ronan O’Neill on the sidelines for the remainder of the season. Niall McKenna is a decent replacement but Coney was in great form all Spring and was finally delivering on his substantial potential – the Tyrone attack looks a lot less potent for his absence. O’Neill and Mulligan are contributing, but they are not able to run up large totals any more and Coney’s presence and form took off a lot of that pressure.

However if we ask the question – have Kildare improved in the last twelve weeks? The answer there too is a resounding yes. They have scored freely, they dug deep to produce a great draw in Galway when they needed it, and they’ve done all this without the slightest bit of help from Cavan schoolteachers living in Straffan.

At the end of the 2011 championship season, pretty much every analyst put Kildare ahead of Tyrone in their overall rankings. Tyrone have since shown some good form but they’ve also lost two very good young players. Kildare are now finding their stride and the option of taking them at even money with a one pointhead start is too appealing to refuse. The bookies have over-reacted here.

Cork vs Mayo

Even allowing for the round robin game between these two counties last month in McHale Park at Castlebar, Mayo have won seven of the last nine meetings between themselves and the Rebels – and anyone who was in the Mayo county ground on the 25th of March could testify that the home side probably deserved a draw at the very least on that occasion. So on head to head form, Mayo clearly have an edge coming into this game.

Yet Cork are very clear favourites with the bookies here with Mayo offered at prices as big as 9/4 in places. Paddy Powers are able to lead the market with a price of 4/7 about the Leesiders, a price that probably should be the middle of the market rather than the edge.

Granted Cork have enjoyed some big wins this year, but Cork’s modus operandi is simple – they try to overpower you by carrying the ball from deep positions, albeit with Aidan Walsh at full forward as an outlet, and if you struggle to deal with that, you’re in for a long afternoon. Down simply aren’t able for it and they’ve now shipped two heavy beatings from the Rebels, but Mayo should be much better equipped. This is a relatively young Mayo team but they are fit and strong and won’t give an inch in the stamina stakes. That leaves us back to the old situation where the best and most natural footballers win, and that doesn’t always play to Cork’s strongest attributes.

The Rebels have got more by way of natural forwards, but even at their peak, Mayo never depended on a plethora of accurate, sniper-like corner men. Their game, not unlike Cork of 2011, is built on rampaging runners coming from deep and intelligent covering for each other. For as long as Cork continue to persist with their 2012 tactic of kicking the ball through the cumulonimbus and back down onto the head of Aidan Walsh, they remain a team struggling a little with their identity. Mayo may exploit that this Sunday.

NFL Division 1/2 Recommendations

Tyrone vs Kildare: Kildare +1pt @ evens (general)

Cork vs Mayo: Mayo +3pts @ 5/6 (Hills)

Two of the four counties aiming to reach the All Ireland under-21 football championship final tomorrow afternoon are featuring at this stage of the competition for the second year in a row, but only Cavan out of the two are favoured to progress, while Cork are clear underdogs against Dublin. Dublin will undoubtedly have the bulk of the support in O’Moore Park since their hurlers will bring plenty of sky blue clad supporters to flesh out the crowd, but even so the value could be with the Munster champions, who have come through a tough Munster final against their old rivals from the Kingdom.

Dublin vs Cork

Cork manager John Cleary was poor mouthing to the media earlier this week about his five players who were all supposedly suffering from injuries, while he also threw in a sideswipe about how far Portlaoise was from some of his players in West Cork. Presumably he was angling for Mitchelstown as a neutral venue, but punters have seen right through his complaints and most of the 2/1 about Cork has been backed out of existence, with only Stan James and BetPack still holding that price. Lo and behold, all five injury doubts were named to start in the Cork team and the punting public were proved right. Of course they still have a lot to do, but it says a lot that Cleary feels the need totalk his team down rather than up.

Dublin come into this semi final on the back of a wave of hype, much of it surrounding teenage sensation Ciarán Kilkenny, who really proved his incredible talents against Louth in the provincial decider. Certainly this is a highly capable Dublin outfit but Leinster was particularly poor this year, with Meath and Laois fielding some of their worst teams at this level for a long time. Kildare were expected to provide Dublin with their toughest challenge but they failed to get their campaign off the ground, losing by a point to Offaly in Gracefield. Dublin have looked good cutting through poor teams for a short cut but they have to find a new level tomorrow and they might find the going tough. In what could be a low scoring game, take the two point head start given to the Rebels by Stan James and look for an upset.

Cavan vs Roscommon

This column went against Cavan twice already this year, both against Armagh and Derry, and since we paid the price on each occasion, we won’t do so again. However this is not a good betting game for the simple reason that there is a good possibility that Roscommon haven’t shown their full hand yet, and they could be a much better team than people realise. They cruised through their Connacht final against Sligo and were very much the better team against Mayo, even though the scoreline didn’t give any indication. On that basis, we’ll stick with a goalscorer bet here and side with Colin Compton, 9/1 with Powers to get the first goal of the game.

The Strokestown forward has been the focal point of the Roscommon attack at the edge of the square and while he’s done great work so far bringing the players around him into the game, he’s also proved that he’s able to finish himself when the opportunity arises. Roscommon will look for him early and often and at 9/1 he looks like a real threat and possibly the most likely Ros player to raise a green flag.

U21 Recommendations

Dublin vs Cork: Cork +2pts @ 11/10 (Stan James, Betpack)

Cavan vs Roscommon: Colin Compton to score the first goal @ 9/1 (Powers)

Kilkenny, Cork and Clare all still have two months to go before getting their championship seasons underway, so Sunday’s league semi final double header is of huge importance to all of them as the managers look to get more competitive games under their belts. Dublin and Galway also played out an incredibly competitive game last week in O’Connor Park and they now must renew hostilities in O’Moore Park in Portlaoise, with the spectre of relegation looming large for both counties, meaning that nearly all the main hurling counties are in action this week.

Dublin vs Galway

Ryan O’Dwyer and Alan McCrabbe both miss out due to suspension but after using 23 players in the drawn game, Anthony Daly clearly has faith in every member of his squad. Both sides will look back on the draw with tinges of regret. Dublin will feel disappointed that after rebuffing the first Galway comeback with Ross O’Carroll’s goal, they couldn’t hold on in normal time, while Galway in particular will look back and wonder how they managed to lose a two point lead with two extra men in the second period of extra time.

Joe Canning’s return to form was also big news for the Galway men and they are obviously a completely different force when the Portumna forward is ensconced in the team.

Nonetheless Dublin hold the upper hand here psychologically and must surely be hopeful that they will get more out their forward line the next day. The starting Dublin forward line contributed only four scores from play last week and surely most be hopeful of a greatly improved performance in Portlaoise. Add in the psychological impact of Galway having thrown away the stronger position, no more suprise element from Joe Canning lining out, and the even money about a Dublin win starts to look very attractive.

Kilkenny vs Clare

Kilkenny have been devastating at times and unspectacular at others during this league run, but if they produce another performance along the lines of what they did against Galway, they’ll win this and with plenty to spare. However Clare have performed much more consistently throughout the league, albeit against a lower level of opposition, and the logical handicap play here is probably siding with them to stay close. David Fitzgerald continues to have the Midas touch in the management game and the calm resolution that his players showed to dig deep and produce a win in the Division 1B decider against Limerick was extremely impressive.

Cillian Buckley’s eye-catching debut for the Cats gives Brian Cody another option and it also frees up Michael Rice to move back to the half forward line, where his mobility lets him come on to support full forward line players in possession quite regularly. Boylesports are 20/1 about Rice getting the first goal in this game and since there is a slight sense of uneasiness associated with betting against Kilkenny even with a large handicap, that’s our recommendation here.

Tipperary vs Cork

It speaks volumes about what Jimmy Barry Murphy has achieved in his short tenure as Cork manager that his team are only one point underdogs for a National League semi-final against Tipperary at Semple Stadium. This Spring the Cork team have been balanced, settled and have produced some fine performances, not least when inflicting Kilkenny’s only defeat in the league campaign.

Tipperary, by contrast, have been all over the place and still look to be in experimentation mode. Only seven of the team that started the 2011 All Ireland final are named to start on Sunday, with only Michael Cahill, Conor O’Mahony and Noel McGrath holding their positions from that game. They are at home and the two sides played out an excellent 1-23 apiece draw in the final round of the round robin stages of the league, but Cork need this league title a lot more than Tipperary do and they probably deserve to be considered joint favourites here. Ladbrokes are 10/11 about Cork plus a two point head start and in a game that should be quite tight, that advantage could be critical.

Weekend NHL Recommendations

Dublin vs Galway: Dublin to win @ 1/1 (generally available)

Kilkenny vs Clare: Michael Rice to score the first goal @ 20/1 (Boylesports)

Tipperary vs Cork: Cork +2pts @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes)

The weekend is barely underway but already plenty of people will have picked their first winner – but nobody will have got rich backing the Offaly minors at 1/250 against Kilkenny. The favourites are generally popular however and the money continues to come in for both Kerry and Cork in advance of the National Football League semi finals in Croke Park tomorrow. Elsewhere there are more minor games and club action is on offer in Tipperary, Wexford and Meath. Here’s our round up with a couple more good value bets.

Kildangan vs Moneygall

Though Barack Obama showed some nice touches with a hurl when he visited Ireland and his ancestral home of Moneygall last year, he didn’t catch the eye of the local team management and that’s despite the fact that Moneygall would be one of the poorest teams in the Tipperary SHC. They started with a very lack lustre performance, losing by ten points to Borris-Ileigh, while Kildangan battled to a good draw with Roscrea. Indeed many observers felt they won the game by a point, even though the referee counted it as a draw. This was despite Darragh Egan’s absence and even though winning a North title might be beyond them, Kildangan look much stronger than Moneygall here.

Louth vs Westmeath

Five of the six first round clashes in the Leinster Minor Football championship look pretty clear cut, but today’s clash at Haggardstown is the exception according to the bookmakers. Louth look decent if unspectacular at this level, while Westmeath have looked forward to this generation for the past two or three years after this group enjoyed a lot of success at development competitions. Their decision to recruit Tommy Carr for the manager’s post was a controversial one to say the least and the jury is out on whether or not that has worked after a very disappointing league campaign. Nonetheless they have got a few good forwards back in since then including Ger Leech of Coralstown/Kinnegad, and Lorcan Dolan from Castledaly. These players were unavailable for long stretches due to their commitment to their schools but they should give the Lake County that touch of class here and help them pull through the challenge of Louth.

Limerick vs Cork

Limerick have a truly shocking record at minor level despite having plenty of patches of real football country out west, and this minor team selection bears that out with the vast majority coming from the footballing heartlands of the county. Odd though it may seem, this isn’t always the case in the Treeaty County. Cork should be very strong as always and manager Ephie Fitzgerald is a very astute judge who is quite highly rated, but Tom McGlinchey has done a lot of work with this Limerick team and they will be very fit, very mobile and with a few seriously sharp threats playing on the wings. Cork should be favourites but Paddy Powers are overdoing it offering 7/1 about a home win here. Keep the stakes small, but at minor level that price is rarely justified.

Final Betting Recommendations

Tipperary SHC: Kildangan to beat Moneygall @ 8/15 (Powers)

Leinster MFC: Westmeath to beat Louth @ 4/5 (Hills)

Munster MFC: Limerick to beat Cork @ 7/1 (Powers)

The GAA authorities were probably a little disappointed with the result in Páirc Uí Chaoimh last Sunday as there is no question about which of the two teams competing in that fixture would have brought more supporters to Croke Park this Sunday. Nonetheless an attractive pair of fixtures from a purely footballing point of view is still in prospect, and for those thinking of going to the games but cutting it fine, our sneaking suspicion is that that best of the action will take place in the first game, where Kerry meet Mayo for the second time in a week.

Kerry vs Mayo

The accepted wisdom in the run up to this fixture is that Kerry had nothing to play for last week and so, with what is essentially a championship XV available to them, they will go through Mayo for a shortcut this week. Frankly, we’re not so sure. It might seem odd, but our basis for suggesting that there might be value in a bet on Mayo is probably a little bit insulting to the Connacht champions. Kerry simply don’t see them as a threat and may not bring their best game to Croke Park.

Old fashioned rivalries mean that Kerry will never underestimate Cork or Dublin. Since Jack O’Connor’s first spell in charge of the Kingdom will be remembered by many as a time that brought about two of the poorest All Ireland titles that the Kingdom ever won, he retains a chip on his shoulder regarding Ulster teams. He’d never allow a side in his charge to be at anything less than full pelt against a Tyrone, Down or Armagh. And counties like Galway and Meath have a long history of going toe to toe with Kerry in Croke Park, so they too would be respected. Mayo simply don’t have that aura. As Mayo supporters know all too well, they’ve rolled over in front of the Kingdom way too often – the last four championship meetings have been decided by an average of a little over eight points and the one close battle out of four – the 2-15 to 0-18 result in 2005 – saw Kerry ease their way to the finish line after leading by six early in the second half. Kerry feel that they can always beat Mayo when they need to, so there is no point to prove for them on Sunday. And no matter what way Jack O’Connor spins it, players like Declan O’Sullivan, Darran O’Sullivan and Colm Cooper don’t need to fight for places. They will be picked when championship rolls around.

As a result, Kerry have been ambushed by Mayo in the league more often than most. Mayo have now won four and drawn one of the last seven games in the league, purely because this is just another fixture for Kerry, while it’s a big deal for the Connacht county. Ultimately, if Kerry choose to go all out, they will win. But there is a very real possibility that they won’t, and Mayo’s last three results – tight battles with Cork and Kerry and a demolition job against Dublin – suggest that they are capable of taking advantage if that comes to pass.

Cork vs Down

This will be the fourth meeting between these two counties in the last thirteen months and the last three matches have been somewhat harrowing from a Down perspective. Winning margins of 11, 12 and 13 points have been the outcomes and for whatever reason, Down just can’t seem to get to grips with the power that Cork bring to bear around the middle of the field.

As discussed in yesterday’s column, Down aren’t necessarily getting the credit for finishing third in what was a very tough league, but that’s because it’s very hard to see what they’ve done to improve on the team that got blown away by Cork in last year’s qualifiers, a Cork team that went on to exit the championship at the hands of Mayo. We know that they get great attacking contributions from their wing backs, we know that they can score from all across the forward line and we know that Benny Coulter and Conor Laverty can score goals. We also know that their half forward line is not as good defensively as it might be, that they can be a little immobile at midfield and that full back is usually a problem position and will be even more so on Sunday now that Dan Gordon is unavailable for selection.

Against some teams, these problems are surmountable, however they are terrible flaws to have when lining out against Cork. Take Cork to cover the spread and take Aidan Walsh to exploit the lack of a natural Down full back with a goal.

NFL Division 1 Semi Final Recommendations

Kerry vs Mayo: Mayo @ 10/3 (Powers)

Cork vs Down: Cork -3 @ 5/6 (Bet365, Hills, BetVictor)

Cork vs Down: Aidan Walsh to score the first goal @ 9/1 (Boylesports)

The playoffs may still be looming on the horizon, but for the vast majority of teams, the National Football League is over for another year and nothing remains but to pore over the carcass and see what needs to be done in advance of the championship. The big news in division 1 was the failure of Dublin to reach the last four, and they look to be the side with the most work to do in advance of the championship.

Kerry: B

Despite playing without a lot of their frontline players, Kerry still topped the division and while their final round draw with Mayo wasn’t some of their best work, they still look to be in a good place. Bryan Sheehan looks more settled than ever at midfield while Patrick Curtin is showing lots of potential up front. After losing the previous All Ireland final by a point, it doesn’t take a lot new for Kerry to get where they need to be. A much improved performance from the under-21 footballers under the guidance of Eamon Fitzmaurice is more good news for the Kingdom and they also look to have some good prospects in their ranks that could be called upon if required.

Cork – C

Conor Counihan is persisting with the experiment of playing Aidan Walsh as a target man full forward and his goal at the weekend will undoubtedly be seen as some vindication of that policy, but it’s also detracting from the potency of their running game from midfield. Perhaps this is a ploy to counteract blanket defences, but right now Cork are not really running up the scores that they need and look to be a step behind their main rivals.

Down – C

Many would argue that reaching the knockout stages deserves more praise for a county like Down in such heady Division 1 company, but with the exception of their strong performance against Dublin, they haven’t really shown anything new. They have a great killer instinct and they produced a big win over Laois when it was badly needed, but it’s hard to look at the Down team that played throughout the league and say that James McCartan has hit on a new player or a new tactic, or anything that’s going to bump them up from “capable of beating anyone on their day” to “blue chip contender”. They’re in a better place than most, but they only have another year or two before they start to lose a lot of key players and they need to produce soon. It’s hard to tell what McCartan has in his locker but he’ll need something, though a very kind Ulster championship draw will bring them a long way.

Mayo – B

On the grounds that all league games are equal when it comes to points but not all are equal when it comes to championship form, Mayo actually have more cause to be happy than most right now. Granted some of their losses earlier in the campaign were very disappointing, but they rounded off the season with a great performance against Cork where they were edged out of it, a draw in Kerry and a devastating demolition job of Dublin. Yet again they seem to have eight or nine forwards all making a strong case for championship inclusion and Donal Vaughan looks like he’s really stepped up to a whole new level at centre back. Their semi-final against Kerry will be fascinating but one way or another they look well poised to win Connacht and look like great value at 20/1 in places for the All Ireland on that basis.

Dublin – D

The Dubs badly need Bernard Brogan back because up front they are completely lacking penetration. Pat Gilroy said after Sunday’s defeat to Cork that “We uncovered a few new players, which was one of the things we wanted to do”. At the risk of sounding harsh, if he has discovered them, he hasn’t shown them to the rest of us yet. He has got some solid contributions from proven players in different positions, with Kevin McManamon coming to mind in particular in this regard, but they have a lot of work to do and are currently six points behind where they were at the end of 2011. It’s not as simple as just presuming that it’ll all work out in the end.

Donegal – D

They survived by virtue of three home wins in the league, beating Cork when the Rebels had two key players out through suspension, edging past Armagh who had no Crossmaglen players, and beating Mayo on a day when the Connacht champions never showed up. They’ve shown us nothing and knowing Jimmy McGuinness, that’s probably deliberate. Their championship tactics took us all by surprise last year and expect something similar this time around. Ignore their league entirely is the message here.

Laois – D

Realistically the midlanders were always likely to be relegated so dropping to division 2 is no disaster for them, particularly after winning two games and playing quite well in others, most notably against Kerry and Dublin. Their Leinster draw is tricky but if it also represents a nice progression. If they come through Longford and Wexford, they will be very well poised and ready for a Croke Park tie against the Dubs. Nonetheless they lack free scoring inside forwards and they certainly won’t have taken any heart from their under-21 display.

Armagh – B

Another controversial grade, giving a B to a team that just got relegated, but Armagh played competitively in the top flight without having any use of their Crossmaglen players – that’s an incredible achievement. We certainly won’t get involved in the debate about the rights and wrongs of Ciarán McKeever’s red card in Portlaoise but they essentially got relegated that day and it’s safe to say that such a sequence of events won’t happen again. Put the Cross players back into that team and already the 10th of June in the Morgan Athletic Grounds looks like something well worth marking on your calendar.

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