DCU’s threat to pull out of the O’Byrne Cup final, though understandable, has led to a re-opening of the debate on the participation of third level teams at this stage of the competition. The very real prospect of a walkover in the final of the Leinster competition would have given nightmares to the marketing department of new sponsors Bórd na Móna, while the bumper crowds in Newbridge the last few weeks undoubtedly focussed the minds too since nobody would have wanted to pass up the opportunity to have 5,000 people pay in to see the game. DCU could have been forgiven for wanting to pull out since after all, the Sigerson Cup is their main aim and the O’Byrne Cup would have been scant consolation if they slipped up against Cork IT in the first round, but the bigger picture was very much taken in here.

The decision to defer that first round tie until Tuesday week has allowed DCU to put in a more meaningful effort on Sunday, and undoubtedly that will bring a lot of the crowds back. Of course it won’t matter a jot, since Kildare are flying right now and will cruise home in this match. Until you see Kildare up close, it’s hard to conceive of quite how fit they are for this time of year. Cutting through DIT and Offaly for a short cut was not that much of a surprise, but they were very dominant against Dublin too and while Dublin undoubtedly had a lot of winter celebration to get out of the system, they won’t have enjoyed losing so comprehensively to one of their main rivals for the All Ireland this year. Paddy Power bookmakers are offering even money about Kildare minus three points on their handicap betting market and that definitely constitutes our first recommendation of the week.

Cork take on Tipperary in a McGrath Cup final that won’t keep the turnstile operators too busy, and while the 1/4 odds look suspiciously like buying money, our gut instinct here is to hold fire. There isn’t any particular basis to this logic, after all Cork’s reserves are an excellent group of footballers – many of them were starting for the county by the time last year’s All Ireland quarter final came around. Nonetheless there’s something unsettling about betting on teams to win at 1/4 in preseason games where the will to win as a team will be a distant second to the will to impress the manager as individuals.

NUIG didn’t get their Sigerson Cup tie postponed and they will host St Mary’s as planned on Wednesday of next week. The incentive of the trip to New York in the Autumn is always enough to keep teams honest here and even though there was no reward for opposing Mayo last week, at the 4/1 on offer from Powers, it’s hard not to do so again. Mayo are going through the motions at this stage and their trip to Portlaoise in the first round of the league is looming large on their schedule. Win and they set themselves up for a real run at a league title, lose and relegation will be an issue almost immediately. 4/1 is generous enough to warrant a small, speculative punt here.

Up north, Tyrone and Derry meet for another renewal of one of the most keenly contested rivalries in Gaelic Football. The vast majority of the Derry football team come from right beside the Tyrone border and if there was only a tin mug at stake, there would be no half measures for Derry in this game. This will be a low scoring, battle of attrition and Derry are on the back of three wins in succession against their neighbours. Ladbrokes and Boyles are each giving us odds against about a Derry win and the draw thrown in for good measure – that’s certainly good enough for us. It’s not that Tyrone will lie down – God knows the competitiveness of Tyrone football has been the subject of much discussion this week – but in this tie, Derry might have a slight edge, both on form and on desire.

Weekend Football Recommendations:

O’Byrne Cup Final: Kildare (-3pts) to beat DCU @ even money (Powers)

FBD League Final: NUIG to beat Mayo @ 4/1 (Powers)

McKenna Cup Final: Derry (+1pt) to beat Tyrone @ 11/10 (Boyles, Ladbrokes)

Now that the dust has settled on the first round of the O’Byrne Cup, now is a good time to step back and assess the first round games with a view to isolating any potential value in the antepost betting market at this stage of the competition.

Of the eight teams remaining, it seems easy enough to draw a line through three of the remaining sides at the very least. Longford laboured to a win over a very mediocre Athlone IT team and while they’ll give DCU plenty to think about this Sunday, that still represents a huge step up in class for them. Of course the county sides are the ones who should find the most improvement between rounds at this time of year since they are starting from a lower base in terms of fitness and cohesion, but even so any side worth their salt in this competition should have got through the challenge of a college like Athlone IT , who are a long way down the betting list for the Sigerson Cup, with a lot more to spare.

The football in O’Connor Park between Offaly and Westmeath was wholehearted, but both sides showed plenty of ring rust and the victors here will almost certainly exit the race for the O’Byrne cup this Sunday in Newbridge. Stand in manager James Stewart is entitled to be happy with how his team performed, but you won’t win too many games only scoring nine times and it wasn’t as if his players created many more chances – largely speaking their full forward line was very isolated and 3-6 was a very rich harvest off little or no supply to the inside men, including last year’s goalkeeper Alan Mulhall.

UCD’s win in Crettyard over Laois looks like good form on paper, but they were heavily dependent on Donie Kingston and that was against a woefully understrength Laois team. They too will find the going much tougher this week and unless they have some heavyweight players to spring for their match in Parnell Park this Saturday, they should be on their way out.

Of the five remaining teams, Louth will probably feel that they have a good chance after coming so close last year and God knows it’s difficult to go broke backing Louth to win football matches before Easter, but even so the psychological hold that Meath have over Louth is one of the most powerful in the GAA and even though Meath were far from spectacular in overcoming Wexford, even at 14/1 Louth make no appeal. While we wouldn’t dismiss them entirely as potential winners, price determines value and they offer little or none at this level.

Meath themselves would have to show a lot more in the next few weeks to merit serious consideration but even so at 5/1 with Ladbrokes, we’d be slow to write them off completely. Dublin and Kildare are both on the other side of the draw and there would be little to call between the Royals and DCU, who are also best priced at 5/1 with Paddy Power. DCU’s win over Wicklow was somewhat controversial, in as much as any O’Byrne Cup match could ever be controversial, and the Garden County felt a little bit hard done by not to at least have been given a chance at extra time in that fixture. Nonetheless such a tough tie will undoubtedly stand to the North Dublin students and they look well poised to continue their good run in Pearse Park this Sunday.

The Dubs used a lot more of their proven footballers than they would normally employ in this competition for their battle with Carlow at Dr Cullen Park, and that was undoubtedly a key factor in why they weren’t relegated to the O’Byrne Shield for the second year in succession. Pat Gilroy’s ability to spring a reliable scorer like Mossy Quinn from the bench was the crucial deciding factor in one of the most entertaining matches that took place last weekend and certainly there is no shortage of depth in Dublin football right now. Subsequently, picking heavily from the fringes of the panel is unlikely to weaken their side too severely.

However in terms of eye catching football, Kildare were by some distance the best side on display in Leinster last week. The nature of Kieran McGeeney’s system is such that it draws heavily on athleticism and power, but doesn’t necessarily ask players to be gifted or inventive on a consistent basis. Because of this and the approach in Kildare which asks the junior and under-21 sides to apply the same tactical strategy, McGeeney is able to slot in any number of footballers into his system and know that they’ll work well within his team and probably overpower their opponents. DIT are clearly not at the same level as they were in 2011, but even so they still possess several decent footballers who will expect to start for their counties in the summer and the manner with which Kildare swatted them aside was hugely impressive.

Kildare should saunter through the challenge of Offaly this week and while playing Dublin will be a much tougher test if that match comes to pass, overall they look like very solid 5/2 shots right now with Ladbrokes. Indeed it’s notable that Powers went 5/2 on Monday, but have since cut the price into 2/1, presumably due to bets being laid at the larger odds.

O’Byrne Cup Antepost Recommendations

Kildare to win @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)

DCU to win @ 5/1 (Powers)

Tomorrow’s Sigerson Cup quarter final between Jordanstown and Carlow IT marks the start of one of one of the most eagerly anticipated Sigerson finals in some time, a finals weekend when eight teams instead of four prepare to do battle and three days of top class action.

With Carlow likely to be hopelessly outclassed against the very strong visiting side, this is unlikely to be the best fixture of the weekend, even though it will see plenty of people using Ladbrokes’ price of 2/11 as a coupon builder. Normally this column isn’t a big fan of that tactic, but in this instance it’s just too hard to see anything but a Jordanstown win. Carlow got here by way of a home win over Athlone IT and there aren’t too many more Sigerson teams that they could have beaten. They will be the first team to exit the competition. Short odds backers could be forgiven for being a bit nervous after today’s unbelievable scenes in Bangalore, but it’s all about value and this one looks like great value to sneak home.

At 1.45pm Maynooth meet UL in the trickiest match to call of the four taking place. Ladbrokes have installed UL as 8/11 favourites but on the face of it, this doesn’t necessarily add up. Yes UL beat DIT, but Maynooth’s win over Queens University was no less impressive and even though a lot of people mightn’t have known who Michael Newman was before that match, they certainly do now. The Kilmainham attacker is in fantastic form, seen again in the Under 21 championship last week. While UL have to be respected, the chaos that was their preparations is still likely to take a toll and Maynooth have every right to believe in their ability to reach a second successive Sigerson semi final. This should be an even game, maybe even 10/11 Maynooth.

DCU will be widely expected to see off the challenge of UCC at 3pm and while the Corkmen shouldn’t be underestimated, DCU look way too strong. The Glasnevin university have been the favourites for this competition from the start and their line up would be worthy of any inter-county competition. This is a banana skin fixture, but ultimately the UCC attack looks a little too lightweight for this level of football and it’s difficult to see Daithí Casey and Kevin O’Driscoll matching the high powered DCU front six score for score. As a general rule, defensive play is crucial in college football and UCC won’t lack for defensive strength, but at the end of the day you can’t beat a team like DCU only scoring nine or ten times, unless you hit a lot of goals. 1/3 is a fair price, the Magic Sign appear to be spot on here.

From a betting point of view and perhaps from a neutral, football supporting point of view, by far the most attractive tie is the late throw in between home college UCD and NUIG. These two sides both put in a very solid campaigns in the pre-season competitions, however UCD will have a much stronger hand to pick from tomorrow with Donie Kingston, Rory O’Carroll and Cian O’Sullivan all available for selection this time around. That extra depth should prove crucial, and with home advantage they look like an excellent value bet at 4/5.

NUIG have an extra gear from January as well and John Maughan’s men, with the help of Alan Dillon, cannot be taken for granted. Nonetheless the absence of Neil Douglas’ energy and movement is a blow, while there are still question marks over the NUIG half back line from a defensive standpoint. There are excellent midfielders on both sides and the battle between Westmeath stars John Heslin and Denis Corroon will be watched with interest by Pat Flanagan, however even break even for NUIG probably won’t be good enough with UCD likely to score heavily off any possession that they secure. This is the best value bet of this competition so far and anything above 8/15 or 4/7 is well worth taking.

In the past, the Sigerson Cup has been a very happy hunting ground for this column. The third level competition was often forgotten about by the national media, as a result many bookmakers offered bets on the competition while somewhat blinded by the lack of information.

The same couldn’t be said to be the case in 2011 with plenty of coverage for college games, so as a result there aren’t too many games standing out as ridiculously good value – nonetheless there are one or two eye catchers among what should be an excellent card of matches all across the country.

The meeting of Cork IT and UUJ is expected to go the way of the Northern University, but the Cork college have a decent midfield and half forward sector and can dominate possession here. UUJ didn’t get their usual solitary win in the McKenna Cup and while they looked good against Tyrone, they really should have sneaked a result against either Fermanagh or Donegal if they were good enough.They might do enough to win here but we wouldn’t back them at 4/7.

Athlone IT’s trip to Carlow IT won’t be making any headlines since neither of these colleges will be expected to achieve anything, however for the purposes of betting, one could only side with the Westmeath college. They were appalling against Louth in the O’Byrne Cup but they did put in a very solid league campaign and have a few very nice footballers dotted around the park. Carlow IT have struggled to make an impression in recent years and while they will look on this as a winnable fixture, Ladbrokes’ 4/6 about the visitors looks very decent.

DIT host UL in what should be the most one-sided fixture of the round. DIT possess a very strong group of footballers while UL’s preparations appear to have been somewhat less than ideal. A couple of seasons ago UL were capable of going places but they passed up a glorious opportunity to knock over UCD when Ciarán Lyng single handed carried the Donnybrook college over the line and since then things have gone backwards. With or without Paul Galvin, there is only one possible winner of this tie.

The meeting between NUI Maynooth and Queens University is undoubtedly the toughest game to call of the seven taking place today. Maynooth didn’t take part in the O’Byrne Cup and only made a half hearted attempt at the league – yet they have a few nice footballers and made a good run at this competition last year. Queens have been very solid and if they play well, they could win this with plenty to spare. Nonetheless it is a journey into the unknown to a certain degree and no matter what the winning margin in the end, 2/5 is too short a price, unless you’re on the inside and you can confirm that Maynooth aren’t putting any effort in – in which case feel free to share the wisdom!!

St Mary’s looked like a very promising group this year under Paddy Tally, but they failed to deliver on that promise in the McKenna Cup and they look to be hugely outgunned against DCU today. DCU don’t deserve to be as short as they are in the outright betting, but they are a cut above the Ulster teaching college and will win at home.

UCC’s footballers meet GMIT two days after their hurlers beat GMIT in the Fitzgibbon cup by eight points and a similar result is likely here. GMIT have a couple of nice players from all along the Western Seaboard but UCC have too much power around the middle with Johnny Buckley at midfield and Daithí Casey at centre forward likely to cause havoc. 1/4 is probably more than short enough, however a repeat of two years ago when GMIT beat UCC in Galway in the first round of this competition looks unlikely. GMIT have replaced most of their team since then and this group looks much weaker than the class containing Niall Darby, Tom Cunniffe, Donie Shine and Paul Conroy.

Finally NUIG travel to Sligo IT in what will be a repeat fixture from earlier this year. NUIG won the FBD league game between the two colleges by a single point and having been in attendance that day, this writer is unsure of why NUIG are entitled to be 8/13 favourites. Certainly this isn’t a great IT Sligo team, but they have a few strong performers around the middle of the field and enough forwards to generate a winning total. NUIG are a little craftier but very physically light in the forward line and away from home they might just find it tough going. IT Sligo plus one point at 6/5 on Ladbrokes handicap betting is probably the bet of the day.

The return of the wintry conditions led to less than half of the games scheduled for last weekend actually getting underway and subsequently there are three fixtures down for decision between tomorrow and Wednesday night.

The rescheduled meeting of Westmeath and Dublin at Lakepoint in Mullingar is undoubtedly a sore point for several hundred Dublin supporters who made the trip down the M4 last Sunday, only to be told upon arrival that the game had been postponed. The motivation for leaving it so late to call off the game is something that one could only speculate upon, but what is certain is that if Dublin were looking for a competitive game, they have a much better chance of getting one tomorrow night than if it went ahead yesterday.

Dessie Dolan will be available for selection having returned from honeymoon and while he’s unlikely to be fit enough to play a full game, the option to introduce him for ten or fifteen minutes is likely to be availed of. Several other Westmeath footballers were supposedly suffering from flu so the extra few days rest should make it much easier for Pat Flanagan to put together a decent side.

Dublin are still by far the most likely winners of this contest, but at 1/3, there’s too much risk attached to suggest that any bet is worthwhile here.

Meath started last week as 4/7 favourites in some spots for their match with UCD, but the money came in thick and fast for the Royals. Ladbrokes now offer a mere 2/5 on Seamus McEnaney’s new team and an eye catching 9/4 about UCD. Going against the flow of money in competitions like this is a fool’s game and this column would never advise betting against the the tide in pre-season competition, nonetheless a straightforward analysis of the two teams suggests that UCD are a little under-rated, if it turns out that they plan on putting their best foot forward in Navan.

The UCD team is not as star studded as some of the other colleges in this competition, however they do possess plenty of players with inter-county pedigree and footballers like John O’Loughlin, Daniel St Ledger, John Heslin and Paddy Kelly would be an asset to any county. Meath are likely to have a bit more training done than most county teams, but even so they will be at a disadvantage relative to where the college sides are at in their preparations.

UCD will be in with a puncher’s chance in this year’s Sigerson Cup and while there are probably plenty of reasons for the market opposing them, this column wouldn’t do so. If the bookies had started with 2/5 Meath and stayed there, we’d be advising a punt on UCD, but in this situation it’s small bets only recommended, with a watching brief probably the best course of action.

Certainly underdog backers would be well advised to steer well clear of the Wednesday night game, which will see DCU travel to Rhode to play Offaly. Offaly have very little training done so far and the absence of their college players is hugely compounded by the absence of the Rhode players themselves, who are preparing for the Leinster Club football final against Kilmacud Crokes. That rules out Niall McNamee, Niall and Brian Darby and the three Sullivan brothers from contention, players who would have been hugely valuable to Tom Cribbin in this fixture. DCU are still regarded as the strongest of the college teams (though DIT surely made a play for that accolade yesterday) and if they were good enough to beat Offaly comfortably last year and in 2008 with most of the Rhode players available for selection, they must surely be good enough to win on Wednesday night.

Rhode is passionate football country and it could bring out the best in this Offaly group, but they will be happy just to see a few of their lesser known players play well and won’t expect a win here.

Every year the GAA season is littered with teams who showed immense promise in January, only to fall away abysmally as the year progressed. Indeed 2009 was remarkable in that even in July, followers of form would have been very hard pressed to pick out the All Ireland football championship winners. As such, it’s fair to say that strong performances at this time of year go largely unremarked. Nonetheless, while performances in the preseason competitions may be of little or no merit when it comes to picking the All Ireland winners, as we never tire of telling you here on Off the Ground, a 2/1 winner in February pays just the same as a 2/1 winner in Croke Park in September, so in this column we’re going to do a brief assessment of the eye catchers in the January sales and see which bargain basement purchase might weather suprisingly well in the Spring.

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