For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

DCU’s threat to pull out of the O’Byrne Cup final, though understandable, has led to a re-opening of the debate on the participation of third level teams at this stage of the competition. The very real prospect of a walkover in the final of the Leinster competition would have given nightmares to the marketing department of new sponsors Bórd na Móna, while the bumper crowds in Newbridge the last few weeks undoubtedly focussed the minds too since nobody would have wanted to pass up the opportunity to have 5,000 people pay in to see the game. DCU could have been forgiven for wanting to pull out since after all, the Sigerson Cup is their main aim and the O’Byrne Cup would have been scant consolation if they slipped up against Cork IT in the first round, but the bigger picture was very much taken in here.

The decision to defer that first round tie until Tuesday week has allowed DCU to put in a more meaningful effort on Sunday, and undoubtedly that will bring a lot of the crowds back. Of course it won’t matter a jot, since Kildare are flying right now and will cruise home in this match. Until you see Kildare up close, it’s hard to conceive of quite how fit they are for this time of year. Cutting through DIT and Offaly for a short cut was not that much of a surprise, but they were very dominant against Dublin too and while Dublin undoubtedly had a lot of winter celebration to get out of the system, they won’t have enjoyed losing so comprehensively to one of their main rivals for the All Ireland this year. Paddy Power bookmakers are offering even money about Kildare minus three points on their handicap betting market and that definitely constitutes our first recommendation of the week.

Cork take on Tipperary in a McGrath Cup final that won’t keep the turnstile operators too busy, and while the 1/4 odds look suspiciously like buying money, our gut instinct here is to hold fire. There isn’t any particular basis to this logic, after all Cork’s reserves are an excellent group of footballers – many of them were starting for the county by the time last year’s All Ireland quarter final came around. Nonetheless there’s something unsettling about betting on teams to win at 1/4 in preseason games where the will to win as a team will be a distant second to the will to impress the manager as individuals.

NUIG didn’t get their Sigerson Cup tie postponed and they will host St Mary’s as planned on Wednesday of next week. The incentive of the trip to New York in the Autumn is always enough to keep teams honest here and even though there was no reward for opposing Mayo last week, at the 4/1 on offer from Powers, it’s hard not to do so again. Mayo are going through the motions at this stage and their trip to Portlaoise in the first round of the league is looming large on their schedule. Win and they set themselves up for a real run at a league title, lose and relegation will be an issue almost immediately. 4/1 is generous enough to warrant a small, speculative punt here.

Up north, Tyrone and Derry meet for another renewal of one of the most keenly contested rivalries in Gaelic Football. The vast majority of the Derry football team come from right beside the Tyrone border and if there was only a tin mug at stake, there would be no half measures for Derry in this game. This will be a low scoring, battle of attrition and Derry are on the back of three wins in succession against their neighbours. Ladbrokes and Boyles are each giving us odds against about a Derry win and the draw thrown in for good measure – that’s certainly good enough for us. It’s not that Tyrone will lie down – God knows the competitiveness of Tyrone football has been the subject of much discussion this week – but in this tie, Derry might have a slight edge, both on form and on desire.

Weekend Football Recommendations:

O’Byrne Cup Final: Kildare (-3pts) to beat DCU @ even money (Powers)

FBD League Final: NUIG to beat Mayo @ 4/1 (Powers)

McKenna Cup Final: Derry (+1pt) to beat Tyrone @ 11/10 (Boyles, Ladbrokes)

Last August, when Dublin put Tyrone to the sword in the All Ireland football quarter final, Colm O’Rourke mentioned in the post game commentary on the Sunday Game that this was a huge milestone for the Tyrone team. His view was that when the end comes for a great side like that, it tends to come with a bang rather than gradually. Now Tyrone could take several steps backwards and still be a fine side, but the outright odds on offer at the moment (11/10 with Ladbrokes, 5/4 with Powers) suggest that they would be 1/3 against Fermanagh on Sunday and 4/7 against the winner of Down and Derry. That simply can’t be correct unless they are worthy of consideration with the Corks and Kerrys of this world all over again.

In the last two years of championship, Down have done at least as much as Tyrone. They are a division one side, while Tyrone are deservedly in the second tier. Derry traditionally perform well in this competition, they’ve won three games against arguably three better teams than anything Tyrone have had to play, and all three sides have plenty of their better footballers available for selection. Anything other than 10/11 or 5/6 Tyrone outright in a final against either of these two sides is simply way too short.

Of course the problem with taking on bookies in outright betting is that it can be a lot easier to identify the bad value than the good. Even more so in a case like this, where the over-round is quite high and the bookie has to be very wrong to offer even a little bit of value.

What could change the goalposts however is that for the second half of last night’s match, Fermanagh looked as if they could cause Tyrone problems. Once the mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a tightly fighting jersey that is Seamus Quigley came onto the field Fermanagh looked a lot more potent up front and they dug deep to come very close to salvaging the game. Any team will tell you that it’s difficult to beat the same side twice in a row, particularly in a contest like this where the prize would be a huge boost to Fermanagh but would be of little value to Tyrone.

Powers go 2/5 Tyrone to win the game while Hills are much more aggressive on the Red Hand men and offer them at 8/15. The true price probably lies somewhere in the middle, meaning that it’s possibly a 67/33 split as to which of the West Ulster counties makes it to Sunday week’s final.

With such a very live possibility of Fermanagh making it to the final, the value appears to lie with Down, currently 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Followers of this column are already behind the Down men, but if you aren’t already, that price is well worth an investment. It will be close enough to accurate if Tyrone make the final, while if there is an upset in the second game at the Morgan Athletic Grounds, it will almost certainly mean that Down backers – providing of course they get through their semi-final meeting with Derry – will be sitting pretty.

Derry themselves cannot be discounted as the Oak Leaf men are playing some fine football and wins over Donegal, Cavan and UUJ cannot be sniffed at – nonetheless the standard from now on will be that bit higher and it’s hard to see the 3/1 as anything other than a fair price at best.

Continuing now with the third part in the series, detailing those counties that will be hoping to make a real breakthrough into the top tier in 2012…..

17. Roscommon (16 – Disimprovement)

Few counties better illustrate the inequity of the current provincial structure than Roscommon, who have reached the last twelve of the All Ireland race for each of the last two seasons despite failing to beat any top twenty county in league or championship along the way. That there is talent in the county cannot be questioned and that’s the only reason why they aren’t ranked even lower, but a few cracks are starting to appear that suggest that some of their brightest hopes from the 2006 minor team simply aren’t progressing as well as many supporters would have hoped. Players like Peter Domican, Senan Kilbride and Cathal Cregg would be welcome into any county team in Ireland, but there will be no handy run to the Connacht final this year and as a result it would be a huge surprise to this column if they were still playing football in August.

16. Limerick (17 – slight disimprovement)

A little bit more luck in the early part of the league would have gone a long way and by the time they found their rhythm in the summer, even without talismanic midfielder John Galvin, they looked like a dangerous force in the qualifiers. The draw was extremely kind to them and not many teams would get to reach an All Ireland quarter final beating only division three sides, but it’s hard to be too critical of a team that only lost to Kerry in the championship. If they can continue to create space for what is a very potent forward line they’ll do well, but their league match against Fermanagh will be particularly revealing as no side under Canavan is likely to allow a lot of space to their direct opponents. Expect Fermanagh to write the script for how to neutralise Limerick in 2012.

15. Laois (15 – no change)

Based on league form, Laois deserve to be ranked much higher than this, but in the championship they’ve made little or no impression for some years now. Manager Justin McNulty looked like he was achieving some good things in the county but the poor state of their domestic championship is a concern and many of their younger prospects aren’t progressing as well as they should. They will almost certainly get relegated from division one but if they can learn from playing at that standard, they might just have enough to come through a treacherous first round championship tie against Longford.

14. Meath (11 – Slight disimprovement)

The wisdom in picking a non-Meath manager to take charge of the Royal County for the first time is being questioned at the moment with Seamus McEnaney yet to win over the footballing public in Meath. Up front the county has no problems with a string of capable attacking players but the absence of Nigel Crawford will be keenly felt this year while all across the midfield and half back line there are concerns. Their reputation is masking quite how many problems there are in Meath football at the moment.

13. Monaghan (13 – disimprovement)

Their shocking qualifier performance in Tullamore last year was either the portent of the start of a long term decline or else one bad day, an anomaly to be ignored. Sadly for Monaghan supporters, this column suspects it could be the former. The Farney men have been one of the most competitive and consistent counties in terms of punching above their weight in the last few years but a lot of that was down to Tommy Freeman’s incisive play up front and while Conor McManus has stepped up to a certain degree, some very average footballers have seen significant playing time under Seamus McEneaney. Their attitude to the game means that they won’t slip too far but if we were to predict one championship upset now, Antrim vs Monaghan in Clones in the first round of the Ulster championship would be our first choice.

12. Wexford (14 – Slight improvement)

After a couple of years of stagnation, Wexford finally found their rhythm in 2011 and were very unlucky both in terms of missing out on promotion and in losing out to Limerick in the fourth round of the qualifiers. Indeed Kerry were probably delighted to see Limerick trip up Wexford because the Slaneysiders could have created a much more interesting All Ireland quarter final if they had advanced to meet the Kingdom. They have an experienced squad that physically are a lot more powerful than they’ve been given credit for and by far they look like the most realistic contender for a Leinster title outside of the big two.

11. Galway (10 – improvement)

If you were to design a scenario where a county should be poised to make huge gains in 2012, you’d struggle to create anything more ideal than the situation out west. You have a very strong club championship, a highly talented bunch of young footballers waiting in the wings, a local manager who has earned respect with his achievements and a group of senior players that must be eager to start accumulating the medals that their talent warrants. The problem is that many of these conditions have been in place previously. Time will tell if Alan Mulholland can unlock the world of potential that lies in Galway football, but if he can’t manage it, there’s little hope for anyone.

10. Armagh (12 – No change)

The depth in Armagh football is not as much of a strength as many outside the county believe, but they have some fine individual talents and players like Aaron Kernan are incredibly good role models for the younger players that are coming in. One or two injuries tend to hit the county very hard but they are not as far off the pace as all that. If Jamie Clarke starts replicating his club form in the Ulster Championship, they could be real dark horses to take provincial honours.

9. Derry (9 – Slight improvement)

Last year was a glorious chance for an Ulster title that went astray and one wonders quite how many such chances will come their way. If we were projecting well into the future we’d struggle to be optimistic for the Derry men but in the short term, 2012 has to be a big year for the county. Injury permitting both Paddy and Eoghan Bradley will be available to manager John Brennan and if he can get the two Glenullin brothers working well within the framework of the team, he’ll have a unit capable of a lot of success.

So, hot on the heels after our initial look at the newly formed betting market for Division 1 of the National Football League, let’s step down the order and take our first look at division two and the counties hoping to earn a shot at the big guns in 2013. Traditionally the second and third tier contests are the most competitive, however 2010 was a little different in that Antrim, Sligo and Meath were very much cut adrift at the bottom, playing noticeably poorer than the other five teams in the division two race. Meath were the county who managed to escape making the drop out of that trio and they will enjoy plenty of local derbies next year with games to come against Kildare, Westmeath, Louth and Monaghan, home county of manager Seamus McEnaney.

At the other end of the table last year it was Laois and Donegal who secured promotion, meaning that league heavyweights Kildare, Derry and Tyrone must spend another year at this level. Boylesports and Ladbrokes both make Tyrone and Kildare joint favourites at 3/1 each, while Hills and Powers both side with the Ulster men at 5/2 and go 7/2 Kildare. Despite the plethora of retirements out of the Tyrone squad that we’ve seen over the last few months, a quick look at the fixture list illustrates why Powers and Hills might be the ones with the right idea here.

Tyrone are down for four home games while Kildare have only three, but in fact this advantage is even more skewed since one of Kildare’s home games is their first round fixture against Tyrone, which has been moved to neutral Croke Park. Kieran McGeeney is likely to spend the earlier part of the season putting his squad through intense physical preparation and they won’t be looking to peak too early, while Mickey Harte is very keen on competing against the best teams in the league and would relish the opportunity to get back up into the top flight. It’s not that his relatively fresh squad will be spared tough training, but he’ll still be chasing every league point on offer. If they can get a result against Kildare in the first round they’ll be hard stopped, while even if they don’t, they’ll have four home games and a trip to Louth still to come, five games where they’ll be favoured to win.

Meath’s away form in the league is too shocking to trust, while Louth and Westmeath simply don’t have the personnel to win five games in this company. Westmeath did play division one football only a couple of years ago however they were badly exposed at that level and while they deserved their promotion from division three last year, neither they nor Louth could argue that they were significantly better than any of the other teams in what was a ridiculously evenly matched division.

The wild card here is Galway. The Galway footballers are beginning to mimic their hurlers in that they’ve enjoyed plenty of underage success, they have a thriving club scene that would rival any county in Ireland, and yet they’ve flattered to deceive when it comes to championship football. This columnist has shown faith in them a few times only to be severely punished for doing so, however lloking at all the factors, we’d still be slow to oppose them next year. Whether that’s a fair opinion or failing to learn from our mistakes remains to be seen. The appointment of Alan Mulholland is a nice change of pace after two years of different outside managers and they certainly can’t argue with a schedule that gave them four home games and brings their three main rivals in the betting – Tyrone, Kildare and Meath – west of the Shannon to either Tuam or Pearse Stadium.

Memories of previous bad bets will be a tough barrier for this columnist to overcome before we recommend them again, however they are well worth watching with interest in preseason competition.

Monaghan and Derry were also only given three home games, but the Oak Leaf men won’t be too worried about making the short spin down the A505 towards Healy Park and they’ll also be confident that if they put themselves in a position where they need a result in Mullingar in the last round to secure promotion, that’s well within their grasp. Paddy Power are biggest at 7/1 Derry and they will surely see plenty of interest in a county that has played some of their best football in the league in recent years. Here at Starbets we’d like to be a lot more certain of how close to full strength they’ll be before getting stuck in, but it’s the kind of price that is well worth putting in the “maybe” column, to be re-examined in January.

The bookies may have endured a bloodbath last weekend after the favourites went down the card of provincial and qualifier football ties, but Ladbrokes have come out fighting this week with a few generous offers on the favourites for this weekend’s six intercounty senior fixtures.

The headline fixtures may be taking place on Sunday, games this column will revisit later in the week, however there is a strong case to be made for a treble of Cork, Kildare and Wexford, a treble that pays out a little over 7/5 at the odds currently on offer from Ladbrokes. Boarding the multiple train might seem like a delayed reaction after last week, but each of these three favourites look very well placed to secure their place in the last eight of the All Ireland race this week.

The easiest and most straightforward call is Kildare to beat Derry. Derry’s lack of creative spark in the absence of Eoghan Bradley was exposed last weekend and with Kildare motoring nicely through the qualifiers, they should have the measure of their northern counterparts. They were the better side when these two teams met last year and this time around they appear to have stepped up to another level.

Kildare are the much more familiar side with Croke Park, while Derry’s inability to create scores should see this match resolved very early. Kildare broke from their usual pattern of playing twice as well in the second half last week, but even at 70% pace they should have enough for a Derry team who suffered a real setback last week. The wild card here is if Derry can get Conleth Gilligan more involved, as the experienced corner forward was wasted roaming out around the field, but even then the Lillies should have more than enough answers.

Wexford and Limerick would probably have been a relatively even match if priced this time last year, however Limerick’s presence in the fourth round of the qualifiers owes a lot to a very soft draw and they should be overmatched this week. Against both Waterford and Offaly the Treaty men really struggled to win clean ball at midfield, but they compensated for this with an all out defence that absorbed a lot of pressure before hitting teams on the break with good pacey possession football up along the field.

The tactical naivety of Offaly and Waterford played into Maurice Horan’s hands, however he won’t get things all his own way this week as Jason Ryan is a very shrewd operator who will devise a strategy to minimise the space offered to Ger Collins and Ian Ryan. Players like Ben Brosnan and Ciarán Lyng are well able to engineer space in a crowded defence and they’ll draw plenty of frees, enough to keep the scoreboard ticking over and to ensure that Limerick don’t have a big lead to defend.

Not for the first time this season in a crucial game, Waterford shot themselves in the foot with a red card at just the wrong time against Limerick and provided Wexford’s discipline holds up, they should have more than enough in the tank to get through this Portlaoise battle.

Finally 2/5 about Cork may seem like a short price when one allows for the solitary point that was between these two sides in last year’s All Ireland final, but any All Ireland final is simply about getting over the line and last year Cork were very much in a weaker place mentally, simply because they didn’t have those Celtic Crosses in their bedroom lockers at home.

Down felt empowered by Croke Park, as they always do, while Cork needed to put that All Ireland title on the record to shake off the reputation of Croke Park chokers. This year the Rebels have played some very good football both in the league and the championship with that monkey off their backs, with the exception of a bad half an hour in Tralee, and while they’ll still need a win over Kerry in Croke Park to really lay their demons to rest, they will have no such baggage against Down.

The Ulster men haven’t yet caught fire in this championship, largely because they haven’t had to, but they’ve also found themselves under real pressure from teams like Leitrim and Clare. Even Antrim matched them for long spells, but just came undone in a short goal spree during the second half. Croke Park will again seem like a home from home for the Down men, but there are just too many areas of the field where Cork should have the advantage this week and they should bring home the treble with a couple of points to spare.

As some readers of this column may be aware, yours truly was never blessed with gifted hands or feet. Your columnist failed to win a place on Ferbane’s Junior B side last week against Tubber and had to watch on from the sideline as the lads on the field did the business by four points – and thus proved my omission to be the correct decision in the process. However an inability to catch high balls, win breaks or indeed kick straight has never been a barrier to observing and analysing games, and as a result for the past couple of years I’ve tried to help out my club and county teams with some statistical analysis.

Thus, according to Vincent Hogan in the Independent earlier this week, I fall into the category of “the type who has never seen a game they didn’t think should be distilled down into a maths exam” – http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/vincent-hogan/vincent-hogan-clipboard-coaches-can-learn-from-mickos-pure-philosophy-2818089.html

Needless to say yours truly doesn’t necessarily share Vincent Hogan’s views, however this is not the forum for picking a row with national commentators. What is clear however is that Vincent must surely be backing Derry for this Sunday’s Ulster Football Final, since the battle on the sideline will be between the two extremes of GAA management. John Brennan has an innate understanding of the sport of football and those who play it, and he rarely lets the beautiful simplicity of the game be soiled by aspects he considers unnecessary. Jim McGuinness on the other hand is the embodiment of the science of the sport, where all aspects of preparation and performance are constantly assessed, analysed and parsed, with a view towards maximising the potential of the players at his disposal.

Both men have been hugely successful in the past, McGuinness with the Donegal under-21s and Brennan with a variety of club teams, while both men have also worked wonders this year with their county sides in reaching this showdown in Clones. This statistician has no difficulty whatsoever in accepting that John Brennan’s approach is clearly very successful and praiseworthy, while nothing justifies the sideswipe that Hogan took at the management style of Jim McGuinness. It may be different, but it is yielding results.

The national analysis of this tie has generally been of the one mind – that the younger manager will have a good day this Sunday, largely based on the simple fact that the sides were difficult to separate initially, but now Eoghan Bradley’s ACL tear has robbed Derry’s attack of their talisman and leading scorer. Despite finding their football hugely unattractive, this column tentatively agrees that Donegal are the more likely winners of this fixture, however even if Bradley were playing, some of the matchups on the field of play would point towards a Donegal win either way. Most notably, if McGuinness chooses to go back to basics and play both Michael Murphy and Colm McFadden close to goal, it’s hard to see Derry handling the twin aerial threat. Kevin McGuckin might be well suited to the test, but other than that Derry could be in trouble. It was notable that in the national league game between these two sides, the entire Derry full back line was booked by half time and they had no answer to the two lads. Jim McGuinness will have analysed that game in depth and this is not the time for Michael Murphy to drop deep and play sixty yards from the opposition goal. Just because he can, doesn’t mean that he should.

Another potential mismatch could be Donegal centre forward Mark McHugh against Charlie Kielt. Kielt is a real playmaker for Derry and he doesn’t mind playing football in open spaces against a mobile opponent, but McHugh is a constant source of motion and with Leo McLoone absent due to an injury sustained playing club football, there will be even more onus on the son of Martin to cover plenty of ground and support the inside men when in possession.Martin McElhinney and Michael Hegarty aren’t good at getting up and supporting the full forward line, while the potential absence of Rory Kavanagh from the midfield sector is potentially another attacking player off the teamsheet. McHugh has a good football brain and played a similar role for NUIG this year, he’ll be crucial to this tie.

Some of the Derry forwards, most notably Conleth Gilligan, are ideal for counteracting a packed defence, but if Donegal successfully suffocate the Derry half forwards, there are real questions over where the extra scores can come from.That sector of the field between the Derry 45 and the Donegal 65 will be fiercely crowded and it’s hard tosee the Derry forwards having either the incisiveness or the pace to cut through that traffic.

In any game such as this, where one goal either way would have such a bearing, no recommendation comes with bells and whistles attached. However one side has to win and though the bookmakers are taking a bit more margin out of the Donegal side, this still looks like a game where the clipboard men will be the ones to celebrate.

The decision to hold the Ulster senior football semi final in Clones may make sense from the point of view of minimising the Ulster Council’s VAT liability, however there must surely have been a few grumbles from Derry management and players when the decision was announced to forego the option of playing the tie in either Omagh or Casement Park.

Derry footballers are notoriously badly supported anyway with a very small fan base and this decision will certainly not incentivise any fair weather supporters to make the trip. Not just for reasons of colour, spotting Derry supporters will be like playing where’s Waldo this weekend, as Armagh are set to have the closest thing to a home fixture. However the make up of the crowd is unlikely to have a huge bearing on this game, but Armagh’s familiarity with St. Tiernach’s Park definitely will.

Armagh are rightly proud of their new Morgan Athletic Grounds facility, but the traditional home of Ulster football has become a home from home for them in the last ten years and most Armagh footballers would tell you that they love playing there. Of course the county’s success had a big part in that, but familiarity is a big factor in their favour.

In fact all the prematch indicators seem to be pointing to an Armagh win this weekend. It’s division one against division two, Armagh had much the better preparation with a genuinely high quality win over Down, they have a better track record within Ulster in recent years and up front the pairing of McDonnell and Clarke looks like it should trump the one man attack of Eoin Bradley. Last year’s qualifier fixture did go the way of the Derry men but they had home advantage that day, while neither side was in a good place mentally. Armagh have a spring in their step after disposing of the 2010 All Ireland finallists and while this column remains doubtful that Billy Joe Padden will score another three points all season, never mind in one match, their half forward line overall was a much better attacking force. They took their chancesm but crucially they consistantly got the ball into the hands of the key dangermen.

For Derry, the rumours about Gerard O’Kane missing out are deeply worrying. The experienced defender is one of the Oak Leaf County’s most consistent performers and extensive surgery would be required in order for Derry to restore a balance to their backline in his absence.

However it’s at the other end of the field that Armagh could have the biggest advantage. One of the less reported aspects to Armagh’s win over Down was Paddy O’Rourke’s very astute management in matching up his defenders brilliantly against the dangerous Down forwards. He did a wonderful job in maximising the strengths and minimising the weaknesses in his players and if he can do the same against Derry, then John Brennan looks to have too many problem areas and not enough bushes to plug every gap.

Even allowing for the close relationship between Ladbrokes and Derry GAA, the offer of 10/11 about Armagh this week is a great price. Armagh have championship form on the board, they have a good settled team available for selection and the venue is the one that they would have chosen themselves. They are undoubtedly the best bet of the weekend and could win quite easily.

What a season this is shaping up to be. While Shamrock Rovers still look the most capable of breaking away, given the strength and depth of their squad, things could hardly be any tighter than they are right now – with just three points separating the first-placed Hoops and seventh placed Bray Wanderers.

There are plenty of tasty ties to get stuck into tonight – none more so than Rovers’ clash with arch-rivals Bohemians in Tallaght Stadium.

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Match: SLIGO ROVERS v DUNDALK

Background: The Bit O’Red were in a bit o’bother last Thursday night at Richmond Park as St Patrick’s Athletic claimed a last-gasp win over the second-placed side. Goals hadn’t been a problem for Paul Cook’s men before they came up against a rock-solid Pat’s defence and tonight they face a back-line in top form – as Dundalk have kept clean sheets in each of their last four league games. The most impressive of those blanks was surely last Thursday’s 1-0 win over Derry City, who are the league’s top scorers this season. Ian Foster’s men will no doubt be confident they can keep Eoin Doyle and the rest of Sligo’s talented attackers quiet tonight.

Position (points): 2nd (26) / 5th (25)
Form: LWWWL / DWWWW
Top scorers: Eoin Doyle 10 / Jason Byrne 5
Last season’s results: 2-2, 1-0
Safe Bet: Draw (23/10 Ladbrokes, Paddy Power & Boylesports)
Big Bucks: 0-0 (7/1)

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Match: UCD v ST PATRICK’S ATHLETIC

Background: You don’t have to be a Saint of a Scholar to work this one out. St Pat’s are unbeaten in eight while UCD have lost their last three on the bounce. Fair enough the Students claimed a last-minute draw against Pete Mahon’s men earlier in the season, but that match marked the beginning of St Pat’s sensational form. It’s a run that has seen them close to within three points of leaders Shamrock Rovers – albeit along with almost everyone else in the division. Belfield hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for Pat’s in recent visits but it would take a big upset to stop them tonight.

Position (points): 8th (14) / 8th (14)
Form: LWLLL / WWDWW
Top scorers: Benson, Rusk, Marshall 2 / North 6
Last season’s results: 1-0, 3-2
Safe Bet: St Pat’s (5/6 Ladbrokes, 10/11 Paddy Power, 4/5 Boylesports)
Big Bucks: Evan McMillan to score (first 16/1, anytime 13/2)

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Match: DERRY CITY v GALWAY UNITED

Background: The visit of troubled Galway United should prove just the tonic for Derry City tonight – as the Candystripes aim to bounce back from last Thursday’s defeat to Dundalk. Galway have lost ten of their last eleven games and last week slumped to the foot of the table thanks to a home defeat to fellow strugglers Drogheda United. There looks to be little light at the end of the tunnel for Sean Connor’s men as they come up against a Derry side desperate to atone for their Oriel Park defeat.

Position (points): 3rd (25) / 10th (5)
Form: LWWDL / LLLLL
Top scorers: Eamon Zayed 7 / Kelly, Yoffe 2
Last season’s results: N/A
Safe Bet: Derry (1/7 Ladbrokes, 1/6 Paddy Power & Boylesports)
Big Bucks: Derry -3 (7/2) or to win 4-0 (9/1)

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Match: DROGHEDA UNITED v BRAY WANDERERS

Background: It took them 15 attempts but finally Mick Cooke’s Drogheda United registered a Premier Division win – and it was enough to leapfrog them above Galway United on goal-difference. But tonight they face a much tougher prospect against a Bray Wanderers side fresh from doing the double over champions Shamrock Rovers. Bray may be missing striker Conor Murphy, who scored against Italy on Sunday in Ireland’s stunning Euro Under-19 success, but that didn’t bother them against the Hoops. Up stepped last season’s hero Jake Kelly and he no doubt will be after more goals tonight.

Position (points): 9th (5) / 7th (25)
Form: LLLLW / LLWDW
Top scorers: Freeman, Hanaphy 2 / Conor Murphy 6
Last season’s results: 0-0, 0-2
Safe Bet: Bray (10/11 Ladbrokes, 5/6 Paddy Power, 4/5 Boylesports)
Big Bucks: Jake Kelly to score (first 9/2, anytime 13/10)

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Match: SHAMROCK ROVERS v BOHEMIANS

Background: Pat Fenlon is hoping it’s fifth time lucky for his Bohemians side when they travel to Tallaght Stadium for tonight’s Dublin derby clash against Shamrock Rovers. Since the Hoops have moved to the Dublin 24 venue they have enjoyed a 100 percent record over their arch-rivals in Premier Division action. But Rovers come into this evening’s match on the back of their second league defeat of the season (against Bray last Thursday night), while Bohs picked up all three points against UCD. Michael O’Neill’s men needed a last-gasp equaliser at Dalymount Park earlier this season to avoid defeat. But they should have enough tonight to keep their impressive Tallaght record going against the Gypsies – who would move level on points with Rovers with a win of their own.

Position (points): 1st (28) / 6th (25)
Form: DWDWL / WLWLW
Top scorers: Gary Twigg 6 / Anto Flood 5
Last season’s results: 1-0, 3-0
Safe Bet: Rovers (8/15 Ladbrokes, 7/10 Paddy Power, 8/11 Boylesports)
Big Bucks: 3-1 (14/1)

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Extra, extra…

‘Safe Bet’ accumulator: Sligo/Dundalk draw, St Pat’s, Derry, Bray & Rovers – 20/1
On the draw: Sligo/Dundalk, Limerick/Cork City & Mervue/Longford all end level – 32/1

Action in all four provinces this week means that the football championship is well and truly underway, with local derbies, big handicaps, banana skins and everything else all on offer. The only thing genuinely missing is a close game that the bookies find a favourite difficult to agree on.

Going through the games one by one:

Laois vs Longford

The division two finalists versus the division four winners is the first televised game this Sunday and perhaps one of the most interesting from a neutral perspective. Longford’s season gathered momentum fromFebruary when they salvaged a draw in their first league match of the season against the Rossies and while Roscommon phoned it in for the Croke Park final, the feeling of lifting a trophy is always a nice one to carry through your next few training sessions. Longford’s win over Meath in a recent challenge match was very encouraging from the point of view of the Shannonsiders and certainly they have plenty of top class attacking talent.

The concern for Longford, and indeed the reason this column feels that Laois will win on Sunday by four or five points, is that they look way overmatched at midfield. McElvaney and Brady are two excellent footballing midfielders, but contrasted against the fielding power and presence of Clancy and Quigley, not to mention Colm Begley coming into the mix from wing forward, it’s very possible that Longford will be working with very litle primary possession. Laois will have to keep the goals out but they are excellent at keeping the scoreboard moving and not going through long scoring droughts. Narrowly, the preference here is for Laois minus three, and over 29.5 points, as is currently on offer with Ladbrokes.

Kildare vs Wicklow

As we discussed in our Leinster preview earlier this week, Kildare have kept a lot in reserve this Spring and it’s difficult to really get a feel for where they are. Mick O’Dwyer’s presence in the Garden county can sometimes blind people to the real state of affairs in Wicklow but they are a division four team and a couple of good one off days in the championship doesn’t change that. This isn’t a game where Off the Ground would be in a huge hurry to get bets on, but if we were, we’d probably back Kildare to cover. In truth this game is no bet country however.

Kerry vs Tipperary

Tipperary manager John Evans was in the news this week putting a brave face on his county’s draw, but realistically this fixture is not what Tipperary wanted at all. The Premier men have overtaken Limerick as the leading also-ran in Munster football, but they are still a long way off the big two and they need some wins this year to continue moving in the right direction. Ladbrokes’ eight point handicap looks about right, and while they will probably get a lot of players on their over 31.5 total points at 10/11, we wouldn’t recommend that play. Tipperary play a very defensive game which is dependent on absorbing opposition pressure and Barry Grogan carrying the attack. It’s hard to see Tipperary scoring more than eleven or twelve times here since they are not built to chase deficits. and a final tally of 1-16 to 0-11 or similar is possible.

Cork vs Clare

These two sides are a world apart and the eleven point handicap is impossible to call since Cork could cover this if they want to, but if its 0-16 to 1-5 going into the last ten minutes, how motivated will the Rebels really be? Cork will cruise through this game and win by a margin commensurate with their energy expended, however that’s not a good basis for betting.

Instead we suggest looking at the goals markets, in particular the “Who will score the first goal”. Cork are not set up to score plenty of majors while Clare will be chasing the game. 12/5 about Clare to score the first goal is a very attractive bet, simply because they are much more likely to go after goals here. Cork will score twenty times here in all likelihood, but would anyone be surprised if all twenty of those scores were points?

Derry vs Fermanagh

It’s impossible to go through all the turmoil and upheaval that Fermanagh experienced in the Spring and not be affected later in the year. Fermanagh are wonderful battlers but if you’re struggling to get through a division four league campaign, you’re simply not prepared to extract a championship result out of Celtic Park. Losing Paddy Bradley is a real blow to Derry’s chances in the long run, but it shouldn’t affect them here. Certainly his loss does not compare with the amount of players Fermanagh won’t have available to them from their 2010 squad. The Erne men may regroup in the qualifiers but they will do well to stay within the handicap here – we suspect they won’t.

Sligo vs Leitrim

Ladbrokes are very much on Leitrim’s side here, offering a four point handicap as opposed to the five that is generally available and this column would be in agreement with that view. Headlines regarding Leitrim bringing in seven debutants are a little un-nerving from the point of view of those contemplating a bet on the GAA’s most notorious underdogs, but many of those debutants played some excellent football for Leitrim’s juniors in their recent narrow defeat to Mayo in the Connacht JFC semi final, and others have played some really good football in the national league. Sligo are missing Mark Breheny and David Kelly up front, the selection of Eamonn O’Hara at centre forward suggests that they are going to play defensively since there is no way that the tanned Tourlestrane man is going to line up on the Leitrim side of midfield, and in Emlyn Mulligan Leitrim have an excellent orchestrator of their own at eleven.

Leitrim are good at playing competitively in games, they are not good at winning. Sligo to win by 1-3pts at 10/3 is a cracking bet and definitely the best wager of the week.

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