The somewhat ceremonial final between Kildare and Tyrone is still down for decision, but for the rest of the second division of the National Football League, the next competitive game will be championship fare. Following on from our division one assessments, Here’s the Starbets grades on how the eight counties performed in the league this past few months.

Tyrone – A

Honestly, if we could put a gold star onto this grade, we would. Despite peripheral roles from a lot of the older players, Tyrone have been impeccable throughout this league campaign, playing football with great pace and intensity while still giving playing time to plenty of their younger footballers. The one accusation levelled at Mickey Harte in recent years that was probably a little justified is that he was too slow to realise when some of his loyal servants were past their best and no longer worthy of a place in the first fifteen. This year we’ve finally started to see the best of players like Kyle Coney and Peter Harte and the team has benefitted.

All that said, they’ve still got a very tough run through Ulster in prospect. We’re certainly impressed by what they’ve done so far, but that doesn’t automatically imply that they are a great bet for provincial success, at least not at prices shorter than 2/1.

Kildare – B

Whatever problems there are in the short grass county, on the field of play everything is rosy. Their late escape act to come away from Pearse Stadium with a draw proved their character, while they’ve made a mockery of their supposed “need” for a corner forward like Seanie Johnston by scoring more than any other team bar Wexford in the top three divisions. RTE’s decision to take their Leinster quarter-final meeting with Offaly off the air for fear of offending sensitive viewers says it all about where they are right now.

Galway – C

Their disappointing results against Louth and Westmeath came back to haunt them in terms of promotion, but right now division 2 is not a bad place to be for Galway. They still have a lot of rebuilding to do and staying a little bit below the radar is no harm. Defensively they remain quite strong and the forward line now has balance, but the fact that Padraig Joyce is still the standout performer when he’s on the field is a little bit worrying. Without a genuine blue chip attacker, the worry has to be that there is a bit of a glass ceiling in place for them. That said, after the disarray of the past couple of years, this was a solid Spring showing.

Louth – C

For Louth, this league was all about the nine point win in Navan that relegated the Royal County. Everything else that happened during the campaign was merely a preamble to that fixture. However while they performed well, Westmeath’s resurrection is a cause of concern for the championship since the two sides will meet once again next month. Defensively, Peter Fitzpatrick still has a lot to do and there would be concerns in the county that some of their more experienced forwards might not be as effective on the faster ground. They’ve done well, but it’s difficult to see significant further improvement by the summer.

Westmeath – B

Pat Flanagan has performed miracles here extracting Westmeath out of the relegation mire and saving their place in division two. Without any of the Garrycastle players, without several others due to emigration and injury, he masterminded three wins to secure a mid table finish. Now, unexpectedly, there is a great sense of optimism in the county. Denis Glennon looks to be back to his best up front and if John Heslin performs, he can be hugely effective. Right now they’ve got a lot of momentum and they could even be dark horses to give the Dubs a few nervous moments in Croke Park, provided they get through the challenge of Louth in Navan

Derry – D

They could have had few complaints if they were relegated since they never looked on form throughout the league campaign, with the exception of their six point win over Monaghan. None of the forwards have stepped up to support Paddy Bradley and while he’ll obviously get a lot more help this summer from brother Eoin who is almost back to full fitness, no new players established themselves by playing consistently well throughout the campaign. Right now they look like very poor value for the Ulster championship.

Meath – F

Where do you begin? On the field of play, they actually had a few good outings. They started well against Monaghan, they were clinical in the way they put Westmeath to the sword and they produced a great performance against Kildare which could have resulted in a victory, or maybe even a draw. However since then it’s been all downhill, resulting in the current unseemly public squabbling that is unworthy of a county of their stature. It’s clear that Banty has lost the dressing room, but sending Seán Boylan in would be no help. Boylan is one of the greats of the game but his time has come and gone and the biggest point in his favour is that no county board officer could be criticised for giving him the job. They’d be better off losing to Wicklow, because unless something very strange happens, Kildare will obliterate them in a Leinster semi-final.

Monaghan – E

Their tempestuous win over Kildare should have galvanised the team but instead they limped through the rest of the season, passing up great chances to make their division two status secure. They should have done much better in Mullingar, they coughed up a five point lead against Galway and they played Tyrone when the league leaders had nothing to play for. The prospect of re-introducing players like Dessie Mone, Conor McManus and Tommy Freeman for the championship will keep supporters energised and certainly the Ulster championship draw has been very kind, but right now it’s the Paul Finlay show with nothing by way of a support act. That’s just not good enough.

It’s a bit early yet to say that this year will see the launch of another “Drive for Five” in Dublin GAA – or maybe even the “Joy of Six” – but the Metropolitans are off to a good start in the under-21 football championship and they should put the first piece of silverware on the table tonight. Elsewhere there is semi final action in Ulster, while the Connacht title will be decided on Saturday evening in Dr Hyde Park.

Dublin vs Louth

Dublin have enjoyed two large victories in succession in this championship and while Laois were in disarray under Pat Roe, that was a good Westmeath team that they put to the sword a fortnight ago in Parnell Park. Louth by contrast were marginally the better team in their win over Longford, but if it wasn’t for a very kind run of the ball against Offaly, they would have exited the championship at that stage. Without attempting to sound too biased, a perfectly legitimate Offaly goal was pulled back for a free in to be given instead, Anton Sullivan missed two 20m frees and even then Louth were hanging on at the end as Offaly’s greater fitness almost reeled them in. This Louth team may yet provide the template for beating sides that play a blanket defence since their tendency of playing long foot passes from one 45m line to the other and looking for runners off the shoulder instead of playing long from midfield to the scoring zone meant that the football got to the danger area before Offaly defenders did. Nonetheless Dublin won’t be playing such a defensive game, neither will they give Louth as big a head start, and they should cover the handicap.

Tyrone vs Down

Down came into this championship with a strong reputation, but they were severely tested by a very ordinary Antrim team and they could find tonight’s game a bridge too far. The injury to Ronan O’Neill however is a blow to Tyrone and their would be some concern about their full back line, which will be well tested tonight. Of the four games taking place tonight and on Saturday, this is the one best left aside, purely because Down should be a lot better than we’ve seen so far, but it would be a speculative play to bet on the basis that they will either match their potential or merely reproduce their first round form.

Cavan vs Derry

On the face of it, Cavan’s six-point win over Armagh in the first round in Ulster was the most impressive performance of this competition so far. They blew away a very highly rated Armagh team and now they take the favourites’ tag into tonight’s fixture with Derry. However reports subsequent to that game suggest that not all was well in the Armagh camp at the time with a rift existing between senior and under-21 management, while injuries have hit Cavan hard since then. Captain Barry Reilly, freetaker Paul O’Connor and midfielder Killian Brady are all set to miss out tonight and Cavan simply don’t have the depth to replace players of that calibre. One way or another they wouldn’t be in for an easy game tonight against a very strong Derry team and both Boylesports and Hills have cut Derry already. However Boylesports haven’t gone far enough, so take the 7/4 still on offer while you can.

Roscommon vs Sligo

Roscommon came out of the tough side of the draw while Sligo have really proved nothing in a facile win over a Leitrim team shorn of their best forward, but even so the odds here could be a little lopsided. Roscommon’s style of football involves very fast transferring of the football from one end of the field to the other, carrying the ball and avoiding the tackle. They could be vulnerable to a side that packs the scoring zone and forces them to shoot from distance and Sligo may well be that team. Pat Hughes, David Maye and James Clarke are all dominant players in the diamond sector and while Pat Hughes has a huge task on his hands against Roscommon captain Paddy Brogan who was one of the stars of the show against Mayo, midfielders Niall Daly and and Fintan Kelly don’t look entirely natural in these roles and would possibly be happier elsewhere. Powers go 7/2 about a win for Sligo here and that could be a little generous in a game where Roscommon could easily start the match with a touch of complacency.

Under-21 Championship Recommendations

Dublin vs Louth: Dublin -5pts @ 5/6 (Ladbrokes)

Cavan vs Derry: Derry @ 7/4 (Boylesports)

Roscommon vs Sligo: Sligo @ 7/2 (Powers)

Already a fair smattering of teams are all but ruled out of the race for promotion from the lower divisions of the NFL, while several are still looking nervously at the table worrying about relegation. The second last weekend is somewhat akin to golf’s “Moving Day”, or the round where teams have to make a move if they want to get to the business end of proceedings. Here are some of the more interesting fixtures taking place from a betting point of view.

Tyrone vs Meath

Last year was the first league meeting between these two counties in 15 years, and Meath ended up salvaging a draw that saved them from making the drop to division three. Yet again they need a result here or else they would be staring down the barrel of a do or die grudge match with Louth in Navan tomorrow week. Tyrone have been hugely impressive so far but promotion has already been secured and it would be understandable if they didn’t bring quite the same intensity to the table this week. Mickey Harte has made seven changes and while he certainly isn’t ostensibly weakening the team – drafting in players like Ryan McMenamin and Stephen O’Neill is hardly a step back – Boylesports and Bodog (always at the forefront of GAA betting) are both offering 7/2 about a Meath win and we have a sneaking suspicion that this could be a good bet tonight. Alternatively, 11/4 with Ladbrokes on the “Draw no Bet” market could be the way to go.

Derry vs Louth

A scan of the GAA discussion fora and newspapers suggests that what follows is going to be a very popular bet this week, but at the risk of sounding like a sheep following the herd, Derry should cover the spread tonight. These two counties have had sharply contrasting seasons. Louth started very brightly but have since lost three games in a row, conceding an horrific 6-52 in the process, while Derry were very poor in the first couple of weeks of the season but have since bounced back with three much better performances and still have an outside shot at securing promotion. Both sides had excellent performances at under-21 level during the week but at senior level, they are still a long way apart. A three point spread on a neutral venue? Maybe. In Celtic Park? Too low.

Carlow vs Wicklow

Outside of the footballing heartlands of Aughrim, Rathvilly and Baltinglass this fixture might not be the biggest story of the week, but it is a keenly contested local rivalry and a game with plenty at stake. Both sides have lost two games so far and their promotion hopes are hanging by a thread, so defeat here will spell the end of any hopes of going up for either county. Carlow were dealt a blow with the news that Cormac Mullins is to miss out due to injury and his absence greatly reduces the potency of the Carlow attack. However the home side still have enough good forwards, augmented by an incredible midfielder in Brendan Murphy, to accumulate a decent total. The problem is at the other end, where they failed to defend a five point lead against Clare and even conceded scores to Kilkenny last week. Rory Finn has played some good football since joining James Stafford at midfield and there just is a lot more to like about Wicklow here.

NFL Recommendations

Tyrone vs Meath: Meath to win @ 7/2 (Boylesports)

Derry vs Louth: Derry -3pts @ 11/10 (Powers)

Carlow vs Wicklow: Wicklow -1pt @ 5/6 (Hills)

For the senior footballers and hurlers all across Ireland we’ve a long way still to go until the business end of the season, but already the under-21 championship is beginning to take shape and tonight we’ll get an even clearer picture as to which counties have some of the best prospects coming up through the ranks. Today we’ll preview the four quarter finals taking place in Ulster, where the meeting at Breffni Park tops the bill.

Cavan vs Armagh

As Galway and Wexford have proved so far, reigning under-21 champions means very little when panels change so much from year to year. Cavan retain a lot of their stars from last year but their success in 2011 owed a lot to the attitude and workrate that they brought to every game rather than any significant amount of class. Certainly the All Ireland final against Galway illustrated Cavan’s deficit in that regard and while that may seem unduly critical, it’s actually a huge endorsement of the players themselves that they used their potential so well.

However there is a real danger that they will be outclassed again tonight. Armagh have added plenty of fine young talents to their All Ireland Minor team from 2009 and up front in particular, they look devastating. Under-21 teams don’t always deliver on their potential but if this one does, they’ll win with a bit to spare and could so the whole way through Ulster.

Down vs Antrim

Three years ago there wasn’t a lot to call between Down and Armagh in the Ulster minor final but Down’s players haven’t quite progressed to the same degree, and while Antrim are not usually one of the front runners at this grade, they still have enough raw material in the squad to suggest that they could be competitive. Still, though odds of 1/8 make no appeal, Down should advance here.

Derry vs Monaghan

Monaghan pulled off a surprise win over Derry in last year’s championship and again they look like dark horses in this Ulster championship. There are some concerns about their full back line but they’ve played some good football in challenge matches and will travel to Celtic Park with plenty of cause for optimism. Very little has been said about Derry in the approach to this game and while they have had some promising footballers at minor level over the past three years, they don’t look like worthy odds on shots.

Donegal vs Tyrone

Donegal can call on some proven talent in players like Paddy McBrearty and Brick Molloy for this game, but Tyrone are clearly flying as evidenced by their facile win over Fermanagh, while the ridiculous delay in getting a management team in place in Donegal bodes poorly for the Tír Chonaill men. Getting to know each other is crucial at this grade, all the more so when players might never have met due to the huge distances between the west of the county and places like Inishowen, and it’s notable that Boylesports have already cut their price on Tyrone right in. Expect Paddy Power to follow, so the 5/4 about Tyrone minus two should be taken now, while you can.

Ulster Under-21 Championship Recommendations

Cavan vs Armagh: Armagh to win @ 8/11 (Ladbrokes)

Derry vs Monaghan: Monaghan to win @ 7/4 (Hills, Ladbrokes, Boylesports)

Donegal vs Tyrone: Tyrone -2 pts @ 5/4 (Powers)

The plethora of action taking place this week means that we can afford to be a lot more selective when it comes to our lower division betting choices, so we’ll start in a somewhat unlikely place – Brewster Park, Enniskillen.

Fermanagh vs Wicklow

Home manager Peter Canavan has rung the changes after a facile win over Kilkenny in the last round and he will no doubt also be acutely aware of the county’s Ulster under-21 championship match against Tyrone, taking place this coming Wednesday evening. He’s drafted in some proven performers like Niall Bogue, Ryan McCloskey and Barry Mulrone and unquestionably things in the Erne County are going well. However they are not free scorers – running up a ridiculous total against Kilkenny proves nothing – and a four point handicap from Ladbrokes is very dismissive with respect to Wicklow, who were badly stung by Waterford last time out. The Garden County suffered a huge setback in that fixture but they remain a capable division four team and while Fermanagh are worthy favourites, four points is just too big a handicap here.

Sligo vs Longford

Sligo suffered a huge blow to their promotion hopes last weekend against Cavan and now they are all out of second chances if they want to play division two football in 2013, while the prospect of relegation is starting to look like a real threat. They still have one of the best defensive units in the country and some good scoring forwards, but Longford are a much more balanced team and at odds against, also with the Magic Sign, they make plenty of appeal this week. Their two point winning margin over Roscommon would have been worthy form by itself, but they deserved to win by a few more and until they stumble, they remain the form team and one to keep onside.

Kildare vs Derry

What we saw in Páirc Tailteann last Saturday night was much more like the real Kildare team and the Lily White supporters are understandably in much better form after that result, albeit still up in arms over the exit of their highly rated under-21 team last Wednesday. Eighteen scores is a great return over seventy minutes of football but conceding 2-11 will also be a worry. Derry also bounced back to form with a comfortable win over Monaghan and while they might not have the same long term upside as the Kildare men, they still represent a stiff test this week. Paddy Power go 9/2 about Derry winning by 1-3 points and if the Oak Leaf men do pull off an upset, it’s very likely to be by a narrow margin and we were all set to make this recommendation until news of Mark Lynch’s wedding and Gerard O’Kane’s injury broke. If you’re going to bet Derry, take the 9/2 about a short priced win, but instead we’ll side with Kildare to do just about enough and for there to be plenty of scores in the process.

NFL Round 4 Recommendations

Fermanagh vs Wicklow: Wicklow +4pts @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes)

Sligo vs Longford: Longford @ 5/4 (Ladbrokes)

Kildare vs Derry: Kildare by 3-4 points @ 9/2 (Bet365)

Kildare vs Derry: Over 29.5 points @ 1/1 (Ladbrokes)

The big Leinster clash in division two of the Allianz League catches the eye of the TV cameras this week as Setanta Sports head to Navan for tonight’s battle between Kildare and Meath at Páirc Tailteann. Kildare enjoyed a comprehensive win over the Royal County in last year’s Leinster football championship, but Seamus McEnaney has enjoyed a good start to this year’s league campaign with wins over Monaghan and Westmeath, while Kildare are languishing at the bottom of the table without a win so far. Elsewhere, Galway travel to Westmeath, Monaghan play Derry in a crunch all-Ulster tie and Tyrone travel to Louth in a game where two unbeaten sides play for a place in the promotion places.

Meath vs Kildare

We know Kildare will start to improve at some stage, but the question is when? Kieran McGeeney’s men enjoyed a similarly slow start to last year’s league campaign but they’ve left themselves under real pressure now and a reverse here in this fixture would make relegation a real possibility. A county with real designs on provincial and All Ireland success can ill afford to be playing football in division three – unless your province is Connacht – and logic dictates that sheer need will push them over the line here. Still, Meath have a great home record in the league and the shrewd betting play could be backing the green flags to stay rooted, with neither inside line looking good at the moment.

Derry vs Monaghan

At the start of the season Derry were considered among the front runners for promotion, while Monaghan were widely regarded as the most likely county to get sucked in if Westmeath or Louth somehow escaped the drop zone. In the first week of competition Derry slipped up against a dangerous Galway team and Monaghan lost to Meath. Fast forward to week two and Derry get hammered by Tyrone (could happen to anyone) while Monaghan win a physical battle with Kildare, and somehow Derry are now 10/11 at home? The betting here is a gross over-reaction to one week of play and at Celtic Park, Derry are well worthy of support.

Louth vs Tyrone

On the basis of their form so far, Tyrone are entitled to be surging up the betting for the All Ireland, never mind the national football league. The Red Hand County have been devastating against both Kildare and Derry, though Louth too will be happy with their haul of three points from games against Westmeath and Galway. The Wee men re-introduce Michael Fanning who has returned from Australia and he slots into the centre back berth, with Jamie Carr returning to corner back, bolstering the full back line. Louth’s optimism will be lifted even further by the news that Monaghan now have to travel to Drogheda, further enhancing their promotion prospects. Louth are not to be opposed lightly right now, much less at home with a three point start.

Westmeath vs Galway

Logic and reason dictates that when you can bet on a home team in a league match with a six point start, you absolutely should do so. Hills go 5/6 about Westmeath plus six points here and after Galway scored a mere nine times against Louth in their previous outing, they don’t look like good bets to clear a large spread.

The issue however is that Westmeath are simply woeful at the moment and supporters are much more interested in their under-21 footballers and the fortunes of Garrycastle than in the county senior team, of whom very little is expected. John Heslin walks straight back into the team after returning from Australia and he’ll add plenty of power to the midfield sector, but right now things aren’t going well for the Lake County and the best way to bet this game is to take a big price about Galway really going to town. Things are coming to a head soon in the midlands, and it’s hard to see Pat Flanagan turning things around in the meantime.

NFL Division 2 Recommendations

Meath vs Kildare: No Goalscorer @ 4/1 (Powers, Hills, Ladbrokes)

Derry vs Monaghan: Derry to win @ 10/11 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

Westmeath vs Galway: Galway to win by 10-12 points @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

DCU’s threat to pull out of the O’Byrne Cup final, though understandable, has led to a re-opening of the debate on the participation of third level teams at this stage of the competition. The very real prospect of a walkover in the final of the Leinster competition would have given nightmares to the marketing department of new sponsors Bórd na Móna, while the bumper crowds in Newbridge the last few weeks undoubtedly focussed the minds too since nobody would have wanted to pass up the opportunity to have 5,000 people pay in to see the game. DCU could have been forgiven for wanting to pull out since after all, the Sigerson Cup is their main aim and the O’Byrne Cup would have been scant consolation if they slipped up against Cork IT in the first round, but the bigger picture was very much taken in here.

The decision to defer that first round tie until Tuesday week has allowed DCU to put in a more meaningful effort on Sunday, and undoubtedly that will bring a lot of the crowds back. Of course it won’t matter a jot, since Kildare are flying right now and will cruise home in this match. Until you see Kildare up close, it’s hard to conceive of quite how fit they are for this time of year. Cutting through DIT and Offaly for a short cut was not that much of a surprise, but they were very dominant against Dublin too and while Dublin undoubtedly had a lot of winter celebration to get out of the system, they won’t have enjoyed losing so comprehensively to one of their main rivals for the All Ireland this year. Paddy Power bookmakers are offering even money about Kildare minus three points on their handicap betting market and that definitely constitutes our first recommendation of the week.

Cork take on Tipperary in a McGrath Cup final that won’t keep the turnstile operators too busy, and while the 1/4 odds look suspiciously like buying money, our gut instinct here is to hold fire. There isn’t any particular basis to this logic, after all Cork’s reserves are an excellent group of footballers – many of them were starting for the county by the time last year’s All Ireland quarter final came around. Nonetheless there’s something unsettling about betting on teams to win at 1/4 in preseason games where the will to win as a team will be a distant second to the will to impress the manager as individuals.

NUIG didn’t get their Sigerson Cup tie postponed and they will host St Mary’s as planned on Wednesday of next week. The incentive of the trip to New York in the Autumn is always enough to keep teams honest here and even though there was no reward for opposing Mayo last week, at the 4/1 on offer from Powers, it’s hard not to do so again. Mayo are going through the motions at this stage and their trip to Portlaoise in the first round of the league is looming large on their schedule. Win and they set themselves up for a real run at a league title, lose and relegation will be an issue almost immediately. 4/1 is generous enough to warrant a small, speculative punt here.

Up north, Tyrone and Derry meet for another renewal of one of the most keenly contested rivalries in Gaelic Football. The vast majority of the Derry football team come from right beside the Tyrone border and if there was only a tin mug at stake, there would be no half measures for Derry in this game. This will be a low scoring, battle of attrition and Derry are on the back of three wins in succession against their neighbours. Ladbrokes and Boyles are each giving us odds against about a Derry win and the draw thrown in for good measure – that’s certainly good enough for us. It’s not that Tyrone will lie down – God knows the competitiveness of Tyrone football has been the subject of much discussion this week – but in this tie, Derry might have a slight edge, both on form and on desire.

Weekend Football Recommendations:

O’Byrne Cup Final: Kildare (-3pts) to beat DCU @ even money (Powers)

FBD League Final: NUIG to beat Mayo @ 4/1 (Powers)

McKenna Cup Final: Derry (+1pt) to beat Tyrone @ 11/10 (Boyles, Ladbrokes)

Last August, when Dublin put Tyrone to the sword in the All Ireland football quarter final, Colm O’Rourke mentioned in the post game commentary on the Sunday Game that this was a huge milestone for the Tyrone team. His view was that when the end comes for a great side like that, it tends to come with a bang rather than gradually. Now Tyrone could take several steps backwards and still be a fine side, but the outright odds on offer at the moment (11/10 with Ladbrokes, 5/4 with Powers) suggest that they would be 1/3 against Fermanagh on Sunday and 4/7 against the winner of Down and Derry. That simply can’t be correct unless they are worthy of consideration with the Corks and Kerrys of this world all over again.

In the last two years of championship, Down have done at least as much as Tyrone. They are a division one side, while Tyrone are deservedly in the second tier. Derry traditionally perform well in this competition, they’ve won three games against arguably three better teams than anything Tyrone have had to play, and all three sides have plenty of their better footballers available for selection. Anything other than 10/11 or 5/6 Tyrone outright in a final against either of these two sides is simply way too short.

Of course the problem with taking on bookies in outright betting is that it can be a lot easier to identify the bad value than the good. Even more so in a case like this, where the over-round is quite high and the bookie has to be very wrong to offer even a little bit of value.

What could change the goalposts however is that for the second half of last night’s match, Fermanagh looked as if they could cause Tyrone problems. Once the mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a tightly fighting jersey that is Seamus Quigley came onto the field Fermanagh looked a lot more potent up front and they dug deep to come very close to salvaging the game. Any team will tell you that it’s difficult to beat the same side twice in a row, particularly in a contest like this where the prize would be a huge boost to Fermanagh but would be of little value to Tyrone.

Powers go 2/5 Tyrone to win the game while Hills are much more aggressive on the Red Hand men and offer them at 8/15. The true price probably lies somewhere in the middle, meaning that it’s possibly a 67/33 split as to which of the West Ulster counties makes it to Sunday week’s final.

With such a very live possibility of Fermanagh making it to the final, the value appears to lie with Down, currently 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Followers of this column are already behind the Down men, but if you aren’t already, that price is well worth an investment. It will be close enough to accurate if Tyrone make the final, while if there is an upset in the second game at the Morgan Athletic Grounds, it will almost certainly mean that Down backers – providing of course they get through their semi-final meeting with Derry – will be sitting pretty.

Derry themselves cannot be discounted as the Oak Leaf men are playing some fine football and wins over Donegal, Cavan and UUJ cannot be sniffed at – nonetheless the standard from now on will be that bit higher and it’s hard to see the 3/1 as anything other than a fair price at best.

Continuing now with the third part in the series, detailing those counties that will be hoping to make a real breakthrough into the top tier in 2012…..

17. Roscommon (16 – Disimprovement)

Few counties better illustrate the inequity of the current provincial structure than Roscommon, who have reached the last twelve of the All Ireland race for each of the last two seasons despite failing to beat any top twenty county in league or championship along the way. That there is talent in the county cannot be questioned and that’s the only reason why they aren’t ranked even lower, but a few cracks are starting to appear that suggest that some of their brightest hopes from the 2006 minor team simply aren’t progressing as well as many supporters would have hoped. Players like Peter Domican, Senan Kilbride and Cathal Cregg would be welcome into any county team in Ireland, but there will be no handy run to the Connacht final this year and as a result it would be a huge surprise to this column if they were still playing football in August.

16. Limerick (17 – slight disimprovement)

A little bit more luck in the early part of the league would have gone a long way and by the time they found their rhythm in the summer, even without talismanic midfielder John Galvin, they looked like a dangerous force in the qualifiers. The draw was extremely kind to them and not many teams would get to reach an All Ireland quarter final beating only division three sides, but it’s hard to be too critical of a team that only lost to Kerry in the championship. If they can continue to create space for what is a very potent forward line they’ll do well, but their league match against Fermanagh will be particularly revealing as no side under Canavan is likely to allow a lot of space to their direct opponents. Expect Fermanagh to write the script for how to neutralise Limerick in 2012.

15. Laois (15 – no change)

Based on league form, Laois deserve to be ranked much higher than this, but in the championship they’ve made little or no impression for some years now. Manager Justin McNulty looked like he was achieving some good things in the county but the poor state of their domestic championship is a concern and many of their younger prospects aren’t progressing as well as they should. They will almost certainly get relegated from division one but if they can learn from playing at that standard, they might just have enough to come through a treacherous first round championship tie against Longford.

14. Meath (11 – Slight disimprovement)

The wisdom in picking a non-Meath manager to take charge of the Royal County for the first time is being questioned at the moment with Seamus McEnaney yet to win over the footballing public in Meath. Up front the county has no problems with a string of capable attacking players but the absence of Nigel Crawford will be keenly felt this year while all across the midfield and half back line there are concerns. Their reputation is masking quite how many problems there are in Meath football at the moment.

13. Monaghan (13 – disimprovement)

Their shocking qualifier performance in Tullamore last year was either the portent of the start of a long term decline or else one bad day, an anomaly to be ignored. Sadly for Monaghan supporters, this column suspects it could be the former. The Farney men have been one of the most competitive and consistent counties in terms of punching above their weight in the last few years but a lot of that was down to Tommy Freeman’s incisive play up front and while Conor McManus has stepped up to a certain degree, some very average footballers have seen significant playing time under Seamus McEneaney. Their attitude to the game means that they won’t slip too far but if we were to predict one championship upset now, Antrim vs Monaghan in Clones in the first round of the Ulster championship would be our first choice.

12. Wexford (14 – Slight improvement)

After a couple of years of stagnation, Wexford finally found their rhythm in 2011 and were very unlucky both in terms of missing out on promotion and in losing out to Limerick in the fourth round of the qualifiers. Indeed Kerry were probably delighted to see Limerick trip up Wexford because the Slaneysiders could have created a much more interesting All Ireland quarter final if they had advanced to meet the Kingdom. They have an experienced squad that physically are a lot more powerful than they’ve been given credit for and by far they look like the most realistic contender for a Leinster title outside of the big two.

11. Galway (10 – improvement)

If you were to design a scenario where a county should be poised to make huge gains in 2012, you’d struggle to create anything more ideal than the situation out west. You have a very strong club championship, a highly talented bunch of young footballers waiting in the wings, a local manager who has earned respect with his achievements and a group of senior players that must be eager to start accumulating the medals that their talent warrants. The problem is that many of these conditions have been in place previously. Time will tell if Alan Mulholland can unlock the world of potential that lies in Galway football, but if he can’t manage it, there’s little hope for anyone.

10. Armagh (12 – No change)

The depth in Armagh football is not as much of a strength as many outside the county believe, but they have some fine individual talents and players like Aaron Kernan are incredibly good role models for the younger players that are coming in. One or two injuries tend to hit the county very hard but they are not as far off the pace as all that. If Jamie Clarke starts replicating his club form in the Ulster Championship, they could be real dark horses to take provincial honours.

9. Derry (9 – Slight improvement)

Last year was a glorious chance for an Ulster title that went astray and one wonders quite how many such chances will come their way. If we were projecting well into the future we’d struggle to be optimistic for the Derry men but in the short term, 2012 has to be a big year for the county. Injury permitting both Paddy and Eoghan Bradley will be available to manager John Brennan and if he can get the two Glenullin brothers working well within the framework of the team, he’ll have a unit capable of a lot of success.

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• 5Fantasy GAA update......

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