Basement battles getting underway

February 4th, 2012 by Kevin Egan

The GAA might pride itself on being an all-inclusive organisation, but a quick look at the media coverage for national league games will tell you where their interests really lie. Expect full page spreads on the big battles in division one, plenty of coverage of Mickey Harte and Kieran McGeeney as they attempt to drag their respective teams out of division two, while everyone else fights for the scraps from the Masters’ table!

However here at Starbets, we’re nothing if not pragmatic. A 2/1 winner in a division four basement battle watched by five men, three maor uisce and a dog is just as good as a 2/1 winner at Croke Park or Páirc Uí Chaoimh, so here now is our preview for the first week of division 3 and division 4 action.

Antrim vs Sligo

These two counties have become joined at the hip in recent years and this will be their eighth meeting since 2006 in the league, meaning that they have met each other more often than any other pairing in that time. Whether it’s promotion or relegation, neither county likes to do anything without the other and as such it’s no surprise that the bookies are finding it hard to split them in advance of tonight’s battle at Casement Park. Boylesports make the home side their ever-so-slight favourites, while Hills give the most tentative of nods to the visitors from the North West, but every other layer is right on the fence, offering even money each of two. Initially we were inclined towards sharing the view held by Hills, but the news that David Kelly doesn’t start was enough for us to recant. The Tubbercurry forward has been in fantastic form for DCU so far this season and while we think that Sligo might be able to get a good result without him, unless you’re in Casement Park and you see his distinctive red hair bobbing into the corner for the throw in, this is a no bet game.

London vs Fermanagh

The odds of 1/7 and 1/8 about a Fermanagh win might seem odd in the light of the most recent result between these two teams, but there is no contrast between the Fermanagh team of 2011 and the 2012 version under the tutelege of Peter Canavan. If there was a handicap bet to be had, we’d be suggesting that Fermanagh would cover, but there isn’t, so our hands remain in our pockets for this one too.

Clare vs Waterford

Not many football supporters from north of the Suir river will realise quite how talented the two O’Gorman brothers are, and how much of a blow their defection to the hurling panel is to John Kiely and his selectors. There still are some fine footballers in this Waterford team and they can certainly consider themselves unlucky to have made the drop last year after three of their five league defeats were by a goal or less, but Clare looked decent in preseason competition. Home advantage is worth a couple of points, while the availability of the Kilmurry-Ibrickane players is worth a few more.

Kilkenny vs Wicklow

Kilkenny’s forfeiture against Louth in the O’Byrne Cup could easily turn out to be their best result of the year. Wicklow to win by as much as they like, not that this is any use to us.

Leitrim vs Limerick

Limerick will feel very hard done by to be playing division four football and they now share with Roscommon the remarkable record of having reached an All Ireland quarter final one year only to play basement league football the year after. And no game more typifies division four than a trip to Páirc Séan MacDiarmada to play Leitrim. There is no glamour or glory to be had, but anything less than complete and total commitment will see you coming home empty handed. Limerick to win, but not without a fight.

Longford vs Offaly

The few bits of 8/11 about Longford that were floating around earlier in the week have disappeared a long time ago and now 4/7 is the best that can be had about a home win here. It’s easy to see why those prices were taken – Longford are much further on in their development while Offaly are going into battle without their standout player in Niall McNamee. Longford should win with a bit over a goal to spare.

Roscommon vs Tipperary

Tipperary bring a very strong, seasoned outfit up to Kiltoom for this fixture and against a Roscommon team shorn of their St Brigids players, they will be expected to come home with the points. However it may not turn out to be that simple against a Roscommon team with plenty of scoring still in their team. Logic dictates that the 11/8 from Hills about an away win is the way to go, but we’re going to stay on the fence in this one in terms of the result.

However these are two good goalscoring sides and neither is either team particularly convincing in the full back line. Ladbrokes are offering 3/1 about over 2.5 goals in this game and that’s a decent shout here.

Wexford vs Cavan

Our antepost tip for the division faces what should be their toughest fixture of the entire campaign when they travel to Wexford Park to take on the antepost favourites for this extremely competitive division. Here at Starbets we were all set to recommend Cavan as a live outsider for this fixture, but that was at a time when we expected them to be offered at something around 3/1. 2/1 doesn’t appeal nearly as much and instead the best play is to stick with Cavan on the outright market. Even if they lose here they still have a great chance, while a win will see their outright price slashed right into 7/2 or 4/1.

Division 3 and Division 4 recommendations

Clare vs Waterford: Clare @ 4/5 (Bet365, Boylesports, Powers, Hills)

Leitrim vs Limerick: Limerick to win by 1-3 pts @ 13/5 (Powers)

Longford vs Offaly: Longford -1 pt @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Roscommon vs Tipperary: Over 2.5 goals @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes)

Value bets from lower divisions

February 5th, 2011 by Kevin Egan

Having priced the glamour fixtures in division one and two of the league at the start of the week, Ladbrokes completed their full list for the weekend on Wednesday when they opened their betting on all division three and four fixtures. As with the top flight games, Off the Ground will now go through the matches one by one…

Offaly vs Cavan

This is a fixture that has generally gone the way of the home team in recent years, however Cavan could be in a good place to break that trend on Sunday. Cavan showed much better form in the McKenna Cup than Offaly managed to muster in a poor O’Byrne Cup campaign, while it may take a while to re-integrate the Rhode players into the Offaly set up. For the Faithful county, this is a must-win fixture. Not having won away from O’Connor Park since 2008 in the league, they’ve been set a huge challenge with four away fixtures this year. They start the year with two home games and will badly need four points from those fixtures – however it might not happen and a relegation battle could be on the cards. Cavan at 11/8 could be worth a small interest.

Wexford vs Waterford

For months, this writer had picked out this fixture as a great potential betting opportunity. Waterford have been slowly improving for several years now and would have no fears of their near neighbours in this tie. However Wexford’s abominable form in the O’Byrne Cup means that the visitors are only 7/4 to come away from Wexford Park with two points, when once 11/4 would have been a possibility.

Wexford should be much improved for the re-introduction of Ciarán Lyng into their forward line and generally it is expected that Jason Ryan’s men will be a lot more competitive than we saw last month, however it would be very dangerous to get heavily involved in the home team. That said, Waterford ‘s outright price of 16/1 to win this league is more attractive than 7/4 to win on Sunday. The match betting is probably quite accurate.

Louth vs Westmeath

Louth’s strong preseason form has seen them installed as second favourites to win this league, however they face a very tough test on Sunday against a resurgent Westmeath team. A lot of the names that appeared on Pat Flanagan’s teamsheets for the O’Byrne Cup fixtures were unfamiliar, however they put in a very good January and when allied to the return of good college players like Kieran Gavin, John Heslin, Conor Lynam and Denis Corroon, the Clara native actually has a comparitively strong hand of form players to pick from. Louth are in a reasonably good place for this time of year, but they have struggled to convert good O’Byrne form into good league form in the past and we certainly wouldn’t advise backing them at odds on against a very dangerous opponent.

Tipperary vs Limerick

If Limerick are to justify their place as 7/2 favourites to win division 3, this is the kind of fixture that they need to win, yet one couldn’t say with confidence that they will. They’ve named a strong team and should have the defensive ability to curtail Barry Grogan, but yet they’ve been vulnerable in these local derby matches before. Neither have they played any good football yet in 2011. As the better team, we’d suggest to somebody determined to have a bet that Limerick are still the more likely winners, but the 8/11 offered by Ladbrokes is fair value and no better.

London vs Kilkenny

Trusting London at 1/50, or indeed backing Kilkenny footballers at any price, is no way to live. Stay away.

Leitrim vs Clare

This is the type of fixture where Clare campaigns have previously floundered, however they do look like the much better betting option for this tie. Leitrim simply don’t have the depth to field a good fifteen, never mind to cover for absentees, and while they will undoubtedly put in a good hard seventy minutes of football on their home soil, Clare are operating at a different level. Gerry McDermott’s players still don’t score freely and as such they are always at risk in a tie like this, however Clare at 8/11 look very well priced and should win this.

Carlow vs Wicklow

Ever since the Thomas Walsh affair, this local rivalry has become all the more intense, at least to those on the Carlow side of the border. God knows everything about Carlow football has become somewhat soap opera-esque, with the annual drama regarding players making themselves unavailable, rows about dual players and clubs not co-operating. The upshot is that while Carlow have some of the best young footballers in Leinster, they don’t have the experienced campaigners capable of guiding them along the path. They might find it too tough against an unspectacular Wicklow team which could finally be ready to make a real run at securing promotion after years of falling for Micko’s nonsense about the league being inconsequential.

Longford vs Roscommon

As an Offaly native with a full family of Roscommon inlaws, this writer is always very quick to point out the sheer mediocrity that is Connacht football in recent years. This mediocrity peaked in 2010 when a team like Roscommon managed to win a provincial title and every Connacht team departed the championship as soon as they met any county from outside the province. Roscomm0n’s place in the last eight of the All Ireland last year was a pure geographical anomaly, however that doesn’t take away from the fact that they should be good enough to get out of this division. Their form in the FBD league can be ignored because many of their better players were involved with colleges. The continued absence of the St Brigids players will be a blow, while Donie Shine’s hand injury is also likely to set them back, however that doesn’t change the fact that Longford are a poor team right now, doubly so without Brian Kavanagh and Francis Magee available to line out in the attack. Ladbrokes 5/6 about the Rossies is a very healthy price and one which might not last beyond the naming of the Longford team.

Bargains available in basement battles

February 5th, 2010 by Kevin Egan

Having previewed divisions one and two already, it’s now time to look at the eight games taking place in divisions three and four this weekend and hopefully isolate the teams that may offer a little bit of betting value.

The first game to throw in out of the eight is the meeting of London and Limerick in Ruislip, and one has to feel very sorry for Limerick in this game. They were quite unlucky to drop to division four last year and but for a point here or there, they could easily have retained their place in a quite competitive division three. Their subsequent championship performances proved that they would be quite comfortable in that environment, but instead they must now play in what is likely to be a very scrappy encounter in Ruislip which will be of little benefit to the team other than as a good social occasion.

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