For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

Both codes once again on offer today with some mouth watering contests, including the clash of hurling giants Kilkenny and Cork.

Three games take place in Division One of the National Football League and Kerry look a good bet to get their first points of the campaign in Castlebar. The Kingdom are boosted by the return of both Eoin Brosnan and Colm Cooper, and will be all guns blazing for a win.

Mayo struggled in their first game and Kerry should bypass the -1 handicap at odds of evens.

Monaghan were written off by many, including myself, in their opening win against Galway. I’m still yet to be convinced and although local games against Armagh are always tight, I fancy the Orchard men to prevail in Crossmaglen. Take Armagh to cover -1 handicap and maybe a small punt on a win by 4-6 points at 4/1.

I’m expecting a high scoring game in Newry between Down and Galway with over 28.5 total points at 8/11 with Ladbrokes the recommendation.

In Division Two, one team that look a little overpriced is Derry at 7/4 away to Kildare. The Ulstermen are strong in the league and will be brimming with confidence after their opening round win over Tyrone.

Sligo and Antrim represent potential banana skins for both Meath and Laois respectively today. The underdogs can be underrated at times, especially Sligo, but Meath are a terrific team when playing in Pairc Taillteann and look an excellent bet -2 at 10/11.

Antrim were poor against Kildare and could suffer another defeat on the road. Small bets on Laois winning by 4-6 points at 7/2 and 7-9 points at 6/1 is the recommendation.

Looking down the leagues, Roscommon look capable of defying the -5 handicap at evens on their home patch against Carlow. While on paper Limerick are a lot better than Waterford and they look an outstanding bet at 5/6 with Paddy Power -2.

Where better to start on the hurling front than the clash of Kilkenny and Cork. The Rebels will be keen to test themselves against the Cats in their backyard and the addition of Eoin Cadogan is a major boost. However, I was very impressed by Brian Cody’s men last week, especially in the second half when they seriously upped their performance.

Cork could come out all guns blazing and a small bet on Cork-Kilkenny in the half time-full time market at 5/1 is worth an interest. But everything looks pointed towards another Kilkenny win.

We could be way off the mark with our final selections but it may be worth a little saver on Antrim pulling off a shock win at home to Clare at 11/4. Meanwhile, Offaly welcome Galway to Tullamore and John McIntyre’s men could be in for a tough outing.

Take Offaly at +4 on the handicap at 5/6 and a small punt on Joe Dooley’s side winning by 1-3 points at 11/2.

For every county in Ireland bar Kilkenny, the national football league gets underway this weekend and the viewing public are set to get their first snapshot of how various teams are likely to fare in 2010. While many counties will continue to experiment to a certain degree in the league, the difference in intensity between this weekend and the preseason competitions is sure to be noticeable as teams look to get their season off to a decent start and take the pressure off the latter stages of the competition. For now we’re going to look at the games in division one and two, with the lower divisions to follow later.

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We commented in a previous post that there were a couple of the leagues that appeared to offer each way value, but despite our original intention to hold off making any recommendations until the new year in order to see which counties were starting the season at full pace, the recent experimental rule changes has forced our hand somewhat, meaning that it’s well worth taking an early punt just in case the price were to move, which is not unlikely.

Despite the notional ban on intercounty training, one would do well to find an inactive county all across Ireland at the moment, with managers looking to find the extra edge that will propel their sides forward in 2010. The Christmas period in particular is likely to be quite arduous for many players, with the trend of managers using the holidays to suss out how much players are interested in the “sacrifices” currently very prominent.

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