The GAA may get a lot of things wrong, but they have mastered the art of starting the National Football League with a bang in recent years and tomorrow night’s double header featuring Kildare vs Tyrone and Dublin vs Kerry is a genuinely mouthwatering attraction, one that should attract a substantial crowd for what will be an incredible night of entertainment. We’ll have a look at Kildare vs Tyrone later today, but for now, let’s have a look at the All Ireland final rematch to kick off our previewing for the week.

Dublin vs Kerry

Last year’s All Ireland final was not unlike an episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer for Dublin supporters, since so many demons were killed over the course of the match. They beat Kerry in an All Ireland final, they delivered a fantastic comeback when it looked like they were dead and buried and thus proved their mental fortitude, and above all they bridged the 16 year gap and ensured that the Sam Maguire Cup spent the winter in the nation’s capital city. Their priority for 2012 will of course be to retain that title and while any victory over Kerry is a good day’s work, much like the O’Byrne Cup semi final two weeks ago, this is a game that Dublin would like to win, but yet they have no real need of doing so. Bernard Brogan, Alan Brogan and Paul Flynn are among the significant absentees from the forward line, but Mossy Quinn has been in good form so far this year while Diarmuid Connolly is capable of scoring well, so that’s not really our concern.

Traditionally opposing Kerry in the first round of the league is a good policy to keep. They’ve often come out of the blocks slowly and usually bounce back in week two. That said, it’s never good to underestimate the intensity that a Kerryman can bring to a game if he feels in any way slighted. Last year was supposed to be Colm Cooper’s year to lift the Sam Maguire and while Dublin probably deserved their narrow win in the final, Kerry can certainly feel a little aggrieved with a few marginal decisions that went against them, none more so than the free that was awarded and converted by Stephen Cluxton to win the game. Dublin are a long way off full fitness yet and even without the Dr Crokes players, Kerry look like the more motivated side here.

Down vs Donegal

Last year Donegal hit the ground running, this year so far they’ve been very flat and the general consensus appears to be that a home win is the most likely outcome here. This column is not so sure about that. Derry shut down the highly rated Down attack in the McKenna Cup semi-final and thoughDonegal are missing a few very important players for this game – in the absence of Colm McFadden, Michael Murphy and Mark McHugh, one wonders where their scores will come from – this is a game where both managers will be drawing heavily on their reserves. In that context, the team with the best system, where panel players can slot in and do a job, may have the advantage and that suggests Donegal can be competitive in what could be one of the lowest scoring matches of the weekend. The match odds seem correct, so we’ll side with a shutout here.

Laois vs Mayo

Laois outdid themselves to secure promotion to division one last year, but one wonders if it will seem like a pyrrhic victory after a tough campaign in the top flight this Spring. Games away to Donegal, Kerry and Cork look like lost causes before the start, so they will have to look at taking at least five if not six points from their four home fixtures to have any chance of staying up. Mayo have been moving well so far this Spring and even though Laois tend to go well under lights at O’Moore Park, we suspect an arduous league campaign starts tomorrow night for Justin McNulty’s men.

Armagh vs Cork

Ladbrokes posted up 1/2 about a Cork win earlier this week and they were quickly brought back into line by the weight of money, while even the 2/5 that was generally available is starting to move now, as the punters line up to take on a home side shorn of their Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Armagh have sometimes surprised us in the past with strong performances at home, but two debutant corner forwards either side of a full forward who is more known for his workrate than his finishing does not suggest that they will score freely this weekend. Now look at the Cork team – arguably stronger than the side that lined out in their last championship match, due to players returning from injury. Taking a global view, it seems wrong not to recommend a single home team to win in a full round of games, but despite an inspecific sense of uneasiness about doing so, logic forces us to back Cork to cover the spread here.

Division One Recommendations

Dublin vs Kerry: Kerry @ 11/10 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Down vs Donegal: No Goalscorer @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)

Laois vs Mayo: Mayo -3pts @ 23/10 (Powers – alternative handicap)

Armagh vs Cork: Cork -3pts @ 11/10 (William Hill)

Last August, when Dublin put Tyrone to the sword in the All Ireland football quarter final, Colm O’Rourke mentioned in the post game commentary on the Sunday Game that this was a huge milestone for the Tyrone team. His view was that when the end comes for a great side like that, it tends to come with a bang rather than gradually. Now Tyrone could take several steps backwards and still be a fine side, but the outright odds on offer at the moment (11/10 with Ladbrokes, 5/4 with Powers) suggest that they would be 1/3 against Fermanagh on Sunday and 4/7 against the winner of Down and Derry. That simply can’t be correct unless they are worthy of consideration with the Corks and Kerrys of this world all over again.

In the last two years of championship, Down have done at least as much as Tyrone. They are a division one side, while Tyrone are deservedly in the second tier. Derry traditionally perform well in this competition, they’ve won three games against arguably three better teams than anything Tyrone have had to play, and all three sides have plenty of their better footballers available for selection. Anything other than 10/11 or 5/6 Tyrone outright in a final against either of these two sides is simply way too short.

Of course the problem with taking on bookies in outright betting is that it can be a lot easier to identify the bad value than the good. Even more so in a case like this, where the over-round is quite high and the bookie has to be very wrong to offer even a little bit of value.

What could change the goalposts however is that for the second half of last night’s match, Fermanagh looked as if they could cause Tyrone problems. Once the mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a tightly fighting jersey that is Seamus Quigley came onto the field Fermanagh looked a lot more potent up front and they dug deep to come very close to salvaging the game. Any team will tell you that it’s difficult to beat the same side twice in a row, particularly in a contest like this where the prize would be a huge boost to Fermanagh but would be of little value to Tyrone.

Powers go 2/5 Tyrone to win the game while Hills are much more aggressive on the Red Hand men and offer them at 8/15. The true price probably lies somewhere in the middle, meaning that it’s possibly a 67/33 split as to which of the West Ulster counties makes it to Sunday week’s final.

With such a very live possibility of Fermanagh making it to the final, the value appears to lie with Down, currently 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Followers of this column are already behind the Down men, but if you aren’t already, that price is well worth an investment. It will be close enough to accurate if Tyrone make the final, while if there is an upset in the second game at the Morgan Athletic Grounds, it will almost certainly mean that Down backers – providing of course they get through their semi-final meeting with Derry – will be sitting pretty.

Derry themselves cannot be discounted as the Oak Leaf men are playing some fine football and wins over Donegal, Cavan and UUJ cannot be sniffed at – nonetheless the standard from now on will be that bit higher and it’s hard to see the 3/1 as anything other than a fair price at best.

Perhaps the highest profile football fixture that took place last weekend was Down’s meeting with Armagh in the McKenna Cup, probably the only all-division one battle that will take place in preseason competition in 2012. What looked like a renewal of a fiercely contested local derby when it was first drawn up turned into something of a canter for Down however, as Armagh struggled to compensate for the absence of their Crossmaglen players and several other key individuals. James McCartan’s selection looked very fresh when first announced, but he had a lot of strength on the bench to call upon if required, and the value of that was clear to see when he was able to get meaningful contributions from Conor Laverty, Aidan Brannigan and of course Benny Coulter.

The question that now has to be asked, since most observers and journalists present in Newry agreed that the eight point margin was a fair reflection, is how good were Down? Alternatively, how bad were Armagh?

To put it another way – Monaghan had an eight point win over St Mary’s College, who were expected to struggle without some key players like Tyrone’s Peter Harte, but their substantial winning margin was largely the result of some very poor shooting from the teaching college students and most observers in Clones felt that a five or six point margin would have been fairer, albeit in a match that never really caught fire. So in theory at least, the gap between Down and Monaghan should be the same if not bigger than the gap between Armagh and St Mary’s – yet Armagh are  as short as 1/4 in places for their match, while Monaghan are not to be had at any price bigger than the 2/1 on offer from William Hill. It’s not unreasonable to infer that either the potential of an upset in the Morgan Atheltic Grounds is being understated, or else Down should be stronger favourites against Monaghan.

The wild card in this line of thinking however is the concern about which teams will improve most from last Sunday to next – and of course the answer here should be the county teams. The college sides have played a league campaign as a coherent panel and are a lot further in their development, while the county sides have theoretically at least, not been playing collectively for several months. Having had their first session together, they should improve immensely for that exercise, all the more when trying to integrate new players with more experienced footballers. Nonetheless the very real prospect of greatly altered teams mitigates this somewhat.

While there is a lot to like about Down, best priced at 8/13 with Boylesports – certainly we’d prefer to be backing that than taking the 2/1 about Monaghan – our gut feeling here is that Armagh really struggled to compensate for the absence of their key players and that they could be very vulnerable favourites this week. St Mary’s haven’t shown any signs over the winter of improving significantly on their performances in recent years, but they’ve still won one game out of three in this competition in each of the last three seasons. With Down currently flying, they’ll almost certainly have to beat Armagh to keep that record up for a fourth successive year and while the county men should still hold an edge, Hills, Powers and Boylesports are all 10/3 about an upset win and that price is just about big enough to justify a small interest.

McKenna Cup Round 2 Recommendation

Armagh vs St Marys: St Mary’s to win at 10/3 (Boylesports, Hills, Powers)

Of all the preseason competitions, none is treated more seriously than the McKenna Cup, where games are generally quite competitive and usually played in front of much larger crowds than attend any of the corresponding tournaments in the other provinces. Perhaps it’s something to do with a more meaningful programme of games instead of a knockout structure, or perhaps it’s due to the fact that Ulster counties often look to peak that bit earlier in the season due to their more open provincial championship, but either way some of the most attractive fixtures taking place this weekend are in the Ulster province.

Plenty of attention will be centred around the first competitive game in Fermanagh since Peter Canavan took charge, and the bookmakers are obviously expecting some sort of bounce under the helm of the Errigal Ciarán man since they make Fermanagh the narrow favourites, but the early indications coming from the Erne county suggest that Canavan has a huge task on his hands turning around their fortunes, and that it might be some time before the fruits of that work are visible. Their most recent challenge match result was a ten point loss to a visibly understrength Monaghan team, and after the game, many observers raised questions about the state of fitness of some of the Fermanagh players. No matter how good Canavan turns out to be as a manager, he simply doesn’t have the depth to cast aside players who aren’t quite where they should be fitness wise, and expect a bumpy ride for the month of January as he tries to get his team moving as he would like. Antrim are very much an unknown quantity right now with Liam Bradley bringing in a good few new recruits of his own, but they have picked a very strong half back line and midfield, while Paddy Cunningham, Michael Magill and Conor Murray are proven intercounty standard forwards. They still might have the edge here.

Tyrone play Queens University in the other game in this group and the issue here is how to interpret Mickey Harte’s desire to have all his players available to him at this stage. With so many retirements and a couple of relevant injuries it was always going to be a new look Tyrone team this year, but there have been plenty of promising young footballers coming up through the ranks of the Red Hand county for the past few years and it makes no sense that Harte is so concerned about one or two students who presumably would get plenty of game time in the national football league anyway. The team selected doesn’t look particularly intimidating and it certainly doesn’t justify the 2/7 favouritism afforded them by Paddy Powers. Queens are expected to be a step behind UUJ in the race for the Sigerson Cup this year after several years of less than stellar performances at Freshers level, but even so they will be competitive and should give Tyrone plenty to think about.

Jordanstown face arguably the toughest task of any college team this weekend, taking on Donegal in Letterkenny. Jim McGuinness has come out and said that his Donegal team are in a much better place than they were this time last year, and since they were good enough to beat UUJ in the 2011 renewal of this event, if we could take that assertion at face value we could pile into Donegal. However a training regime involving two sessions every day is likely to take a toll on Donegal and with no real need to win the McKenna Cup, much less target this game, backing Donegal is a dangerous game here. After all, would anyone be really surprised if it emerged after the game that McGuinness had saw fit to put his players through a training session on Sunday morning? Powers and Boyles are both 1/4 Donegal and that price is putting a lot of faith in McGuinness to put his best foot forward in this fixture. We don’t share that faith.

Finally, having put up two outsiders, we’ll finish by recommending the best banker bet of the McKenna Cup coupon – Down to beat Armagh, best priced at 4/6 with Ladbrokes. These two counties have a fierce rivalry going back a long way, but James McCartan has clearly settled on the bones of his best squad and there is a lot of experience available to him for this game. In contrast Armagh manager Paddy O’Rourke is of course without his Crossmaglen players, he’s also without several other frontliners including Rory Grugan, Stephen McDonnell, Kieran McKeever and Kieran Toner. At their best, Armagh would be hard pressed to beat this Down side who have a lot of football under their belts already, and with a shadow team, it’s very hard to be optimistic for the Orchard County.

McKenna Cup Recommendations

Donegal vs UUJ: UUJ @ 10/3 (Powers, Boylesports)

Tyrone vs Queens: Queens @ 3/1 (Powers)

Down vs Armagh: Down @ 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

And so, we come to the race for Christmas number one – the real Christmas number one. In the race to become the leading Gaelic Football county in Ireland, there’s no shortcut available, such as going through a reality TV show – it takes years of hard, painstaking work and as Donegal manager Jim McGuinness will certainly testify, there’s no point in playing to impress the paying public!

As always, counties are listed in order of Starbets ranking, but with the bookmaker ranking in brackets, calculated based on an aggregate of all 2012 All Ireland odds, followed by our prediction as to whether the county will be moving up or down the chart in 2012.

8. Tyrone (6 – Disimprovement)

Your columnist was sorely tempted to court publicity by ranking the Red Hand men outside of the top ten, and based on 2011 alone, we could have stood over that view. Their failure to make a real push in division two was worrying, particularly the dropped point against a very mediocre Meath team when anything less than a win was likely to prove fatal. However it would be foolish to ignore the incredible achievements of this county over the past decade. However while they should go well in the league this year, we expect them to be found out in the championship. Dublin and Donegal each exposed weaknesses in their team and tactics and while Mickey Harte is beyond criticism, it could be fast approaching the time when the players need to hear a new voice at the helm.

7. Down (8 – Disimprovement)

2011 was a disappointing year and the news that talisman Martin Clarke, along with their incredible young prospect Caolan Mooney, will be playing AFL instead of NFL next spring is deeply worrying from a Down perspective. Modern defences appear to have figured out how to counteract the threat of Benny Coulter and incredibly, the question marks surrounding the spine of the defence and indeed the midfield remain. Their scoring power gives them a chance against anybody, particularly in Croke Park, if they get back there. That’s a big “if” though.

6. Donegal (7 – Slight improvement)

Firstly, ranking Donegal outside of the top four even though they made the semi-finals may seem harsh, but their 2011 approach will only get you so far against good teams and right now, they would be underdogs, with this odds compiler at least, against any of the five counties yet to be named in this column. However the reason we think they could be destined to climb the ladder is the fact that they will be acutely aware that they need to evolve their approach and Jim McGuinness has both the mental acuity to recognise this and the quality of player available to implement a variety of different approaches. His players will follow him wherever he leads them, and to see how strongly he reacted to Kevin Cassidy’s part in Declan Bogue’s book, even though nothing was said, was instructive. Even more instructive was how none of the other Donegal players spoke out on behalf of Cassidy. They want to be part of Donegal’s footballing future, and rightly so.

5. Mayo (5 – Slight disimprovement)

After they laboured under John O’Mahony and struggled to deliver the success that the county craves, Ballintubber’s James Horan had a very promising first season in charge of Mayo, guiding his team to a Connacht title and a hugely significant All Ireland quarter final win over Cork. That result over the then All Ireland champions illustrated the potential that lies in this group of footballers, but the gulf in class in their All Ireland semi final meeting with Kerry made it very clear how much work remains to be done. As modern midfielders evolve into more mobile, all round footballers, the O’Shea partnership remains something of a throwback to a bygone era. It would a brave man who would bet against the Breaffy men on a tight pitch where the ability to play good contact football is paramount, but if the goal is to beat Dublin and Kerry, one suspects that a makeover will be needed in that section since their immobility would be taken apart against that standard of opponent.

4. Kildare (4 – Improvement)

No team was treated as badly by lady luck in 2011 as the Lily Whites, and on the grounds that the break of the ball evens itself out over time, they clearly have to be well watched in 2012. Kieran McGeeney has complete and utter respect from his players and crucially, he has them implementing a system whereby the success of the system is dependent on their workrate and sticking to the plan, rather than the mercurial talent of a group of individuals. Even John Doyle, the star man of the squad, is being deployed in a more workmanlike role. For as long as they continue to push on, they will continue to improve, and Kildare should come very, very close to All Ireland honours in 2012. The danger for the county is that in every sense, they are burning a lot of fuel. Players cannot continue to put in this level of effort for too long, while equally their county board can ill afford to continue to underwrite one of if not the most expensive county team to run in Ireland. When their star does burn out we suspect it will crash spectacularly, but in the meantime they continue to ascend.

3. Cork (3 – Slight improvement)

The Rebels appeared to regress in 2011, losing in Munster yet again and coughing up an early lead to go out somewhat pitifully against Mayo. As such they had to be downgraded from their top spot, however it would be easy to forget the horrendous injury list that Conor Counihan had to deal with. You can’t lose so many players of that calibre, mainly in the one sector of the field, and expect to be unaffected. With a full strength panel to choose from in 2012, they should find themselves right there in contention yet again.

2. Kerry (1 – Disimprovement)

Judging Kerry based on their 2012 showing is difficult, in that they did what they had to do in the championship, but until the final, they never really had to go into their higher gears. They were fortunate to get what was a relatively kind run to the final, but they took full advantage and there was no question but that Dublin got what decisions were going in that Croke Park decider. Nonetheless the issue of their ageing panel remains a very real one and the possibility that Colm Cooper will be denied a necessary operation until after March because of his involvement with Dr Crokes is far from ideal. Their younger footballers don’t seem to be of the necessary calibre so we’re going to stick our necks out and say that Kerry will slip a little in 2012.

1. Dublin (2 – No change)

It may seem lazy to just put the winners in the number one slot, but for several years now, people have said that Dublin lacked the ability to deliver on the really big day. This year they rode their luck a little certainly, but they also played some very good football when they needed to and to rescue the All Ireland final as they did was very impressive. The self belief that they will take from that can only be beneficial and with that in mind, no one county looks better poised to take the biggest prizes in the game in 2012.

Twas the month before Christmas, and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even in the O’Byrne Cup.

The county players currently training frantically and preparing for the 2012 season might beg to differ on the concept of the “winter break”, but for the GAA public, the only action to be found during the month of December is at your local club AGM, where treasurers give out about physios, hurlers give out about football, managers complain about lack of commitment and political coups are executed to varying degrees of success. It might be the kind of drama that members of soccer and rugby clubs can only dream of, but it’s still of little use to the betting public, since not even the most foolhardy bookmaker would like to start betting on who will be installed as the new PRO of Ballygobackwards hurling club, much less whether or not they’ll pass that motion suggesting a change in the structure of the under-14 championship.

However those betting firms out there are very conscious of the fact that if they don’t offer us something, all our money would instead get wasted on folly like Christmas presents or brussels sprouts, so rather than allow such a ridiculous scenario to come about, they’ve suddenly burst out of the blocks with betting for next year’s national football leagues.

It’s very early in the game to make any strong recommendations, however now is a good time to share our early thoughts, perhaps picking off some long shots that may dip in price before a ball is ever thrown in. Looking first at division one of the National Football League, and it’s safe to say that most punters will stay with the big three of Cork, Kerry and Dublin, with Kerry perhaps likely to prove the least popular selection of these three. Colm Cooper will miss at least the first two rounds of the competition against Dublin and Armagh due to his involvement with Dr Crokes, as will several other of the Killarney based players, which will be a stumbling block for a lot of potential backers, however Kerry are well used to losing the first round of the league, while Armagh will certainly be a lot more depleted for their round two meeting due to the absence of the Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Kerry’s reputation as non-triers in the league might seem justified in the light of their comparitively stronger record in championship football, however the 3/1 on offer from William Hill and Boylesports could yet be a decent price. After all, anyone backing the Kingdom at that price for each National League campaign during the last decade would still be showing a profit now after outright wins in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

The fixture list could have been more kind to Jack O’Connor and his panel as it will send Kerry to both Croke Park and Páirc Uí Chaoimh in the spring, however there are Kerry footballers who have played more county games in Croke Park than in Tralee, while the Leeside venue is hardly unfamiliar territory either.

Of the outsiders in this division, Donegal at 10/1 with Boylesports looks the most intriguing. The Kevin Cassidy saga could be a distraction, but Jim McGuinness’ strongest attribute is his ability to handle the mental side of management and he will undoubtedly find some way to turn a crisis into an opportunity, even if it does look to this outsider like a largely self made crisis. Getting four home games is very important to a remote county like Donegal and their week three battle with Cork at home will be their most significant fixture. They have a great chance of starting off with two wins and could very easily be top of the table if they can cash in on Cork’s huge round trip. While they’d have preferred to play Armagh early in the year when the Crossmaglen players wouldn’t be available, otherwise they can have few complaints about the schedule.

James Horan has made it clear in his first season in charge that he will, rightly, use the league for experimentation and with a good championship behind him, he’s under no pressure to get results next spring. They certainly won’t come easily to Mayo with a very real possibility that they will be underdogs in six out of seven matches. For the moment, we can safely draw a line through them in terms of potential winners, as we can through Armagh who will miss the Crossmaglen players for several rounds. Indeed we could possibly dismiss Down, who have concerns over key central positions and will also miss out on the influence of Martin Clarke, but they still might have an outsider’s chance if they avoid shipping too much punishment in the early rounds.

Other than the 10/1 about Donegal from Boylesports, there’s no price that we would say with 80% confidence will be shorter by the start of the season, so we won’t recommend diverting too much of the Christmas money just yet. But don’t go throwing it all in the collection plate at midnight mass – the New Year isn’t that far away.

The bookies may have endured a bloodbath last weekend after the favourites went down the card of provincial and qualifier football ties, but Ladbrokes have come out fighting this week with a few generous offers on the favourites for this weekend’s six intercounty senior fixtures.

The headline fixtures may be taking place on Sunday, games this column will revisit later in the week, however there is a strong case to be made for a treble of Cork, Kildare and Wexford, a treble that pays out a little over 7/5 at the odds currently on offer from Ladbrokes. Boarding the multiple train might seem like a delayed reaction after last week, but each of these three favourites look very well placed to secure their place in the last eight of the All Ireland race this week.

The easiest and most straightforward call is Kildare to beat Derry. Derry’s lack of creative spark in the absence of Eoghan Bradley was exposed last weekend and with Kildare motoring nicely through the qualifiers, they should have the measure of their northern counterparts. They were the better side when these two teams met last year and this time around they appear to have stepped up to another level.

Kildare are the much more familiar side with Croke Park, while Derry’s inability to create scores should see this match resolved very early. Kildare broke from their usual pattern of playing twice as well in the second half last week, but even at 70% pace they should have enough for a Derry team who suffered a real setback last week. The wild card here is if Derry can get Conleth Gilligan more involved, as the experienced corner forward was wasted roaming out around the field, but even then the Lillies should have more than enough answers.

Wexford and Limerick would probably have been a relatively even match if priced this time last year, however Limerick’s presence in the fourth round of the qualifiers owes a lot to a very soft draw and they should be overmatched this week. Against both Waterford and Offaly the Treaty men really struggled to win clean ball at midfield, but they compensated for this with an all out defence that absorbed a lot of pressure before hitting teams on the break with good pacey possession football up along the field.

The tactical naivety of Offaly and Waterford played into Maurice Horan’s hands, however he won’t get things all his own way this week as Jason Ryan is a very shrewd operator who will devise a strategy to minimise the space offered to Ger Collins and Ian Ryan. Players like Ben Brosnan and Ciarán Lyng are well able to engineer space in a crowded defence and they’ll draw plenty of frees, enough to keep the scoreboard ticking over and to ensure that Limerick don’t have a big lead to defend.

Not for the first time this season in a crucial game, Waterford shot themselves in the foot with a red card at just the wrong time against Limerick and provided Wexford’s discipline holds up, they should have more than enough in the tank to get through this Portlaoise battle.

Finally 2/5 about Cork may seem like a short price when one allows for the solitary point that was between these two sides in last year’s All Ireland final, but any All Ireland final is simply about getting over the line and last year Cork were very much in a weaker place mentally, simply because they didn’t have those Celtic Crosses in their bedroom lockers at home.

Down felt empowered by Croke Park, as they always do, while Cork needed to put that All Ireland title on the record to shake off the reputation of Croke Park chokers. This year the Rebels have played some very good football both in the league and the championship with that monkey off their backs, with the exception of a bad half an hour in Tralee, and while they’ll still need a win over Kerry in Croke Park to really lay their demons to rest, they will have no such baggage against Down.

The Ulster men haven’t yet caught fire in this championship, largely because they haven’t had to, but they’ve also found themselves under real pressure from teams like Leitrim and Clare. Even Antrim matched them for long spells, but just came undone in a short goal spree during the second half. Croke Park will again seem like a home from home for the Down men, but there are just too many areas of the field where Cork should have the advantage this week and they should bring home the treble with a couple of points to spare.

The football qualifiers continue to come think and fast, with the eight counties in action this weekend beginning to realise that there could very soon be some light at the end of the tunnel. Already half the participating teams have departed the race for the Sam Maguire Cup, and one more victory will leave any of those remaining, who recently felt like their dreams were dashed, tantalisingly close to Croke Park. For some, it’s still hard to imagine them playing in the last eight of the All Ireland championship, but for others, it’s hard to see them denied.

Down vs Antrim

For long spells of last weekend’s match in Newry, Down struggled to gain real supremacy over Leitrim and they even looked like they could have been in danger of losing the match at times. That they still won by eight points is an indication of the class that there is in the red and black jerseys, while in Casement Park Antrim were extremely fortunate to come through against Carlow – or indeed Carlow were extremely unfortunate, from the point of view of this column, which recommended them at 5/1.

The local derby element will come into play to a certain extent, but even allowing for this, Antrim look overmatched here. Liam Bradley is unlikely to start without Paddy Cunningham this week but even if Cunningham plays and plays well, there simply aren’t enough free scorers in that Antrim forward line. Down should relish the big pitch in Casement Park and after two warnings now, they should be on their toes. 10/11 about Down minus four is a decent bet, but Ladbrokes are also offering 7/4 about Down to score over 1.5 goals. In ten league and championship games this year, only Meath have failed to find the net against the Saffrons and with Down’s attacking talent, raising two green flags is a very realistic prospect.

Wicklow vs Armagh

Hands up time here – this column definitely did not see that coming. Wicklow (and indeed the bookmakers, who would have cheered the demise of countless multiple bets) were blessed that Seán Furlong’s normal time goal was allowed after a questionable amount of steps, while his extra time strike also came after dubious handpass, but even so Armagh will be very worried at the way that Leighton Glynn’s movement and energy really unsettled their full back line, and also how James Stafford and Rory Finn lorded matters at midfield. Their return to Aughrim is a huge boost for Wicklow, but the value of that ground can sometimes be overstated. A field of grass is simply a field of grass and while Aughrim is not the most easily accessible village in Ireland, their venue remains a good open pitch where footballers should thrive.

Given that Armagh have been forewarned now and that Paddy O’Rourke is likely to do a lot better tactically this week, we’ll take the risk of compounding our error by suggesting Armagh minus two points as the best bet.

Limerick vs Waterford

Limerick fully deserved their win over Offaly in the Gaelic Grounds, but as we warned in this column, if Offaly got dragged into a battle, they were always going to come off second best. They needed to get in front and to force Limerick to come out and chase the game, a strategy that went out the window when Ian Ryan and Seamus O’Carroll struck for early goals.

Limerick’s lack of fielding ability will come back to haunt them some other time, but they might still have enough to get through Waterford. However scorelines of 1-17 and 3-13 are very out of character for these teams and bearing in mind how well both sides know each other after playing each other competitively four times in the last 18 months, not to mention a challenge match a fortnight ago, and a low scoring tie could be in prospect. Take under 30.5 points at even money.

Kildare vs Meath

Kildare’s ridiculously good record in the qualifiers continued last week with a crushing victory over Laois, while Meath proved once again that having big names in your forward line is no guarantee of getting plenty of scores. They limped over the line against Galway and their inability to kick points continues to hold them back.

These two sides are operating on completely different levels right now and there is simply no reason why Páirc Tailteann, tradition, or any other factor will compensate for that. Kildare’s very game is built on intensity and they do not know any other way to play – they can win this game and win it well. 1/2 about Kildare on the match betting market is a great odds on bet, but those looking for a big price should take Kildare to win by 7-9 pts at 6/1, and possibly even the 12/1 about a 10-12pt win.

Limerick vs Offaly

The reasons to go against Limerick are plentiful, and certainly if Offaly come close to replicating their performance against Monaghan, they should come through this fixture with relative ease. Losing heavily to Kerry wouldn’t be something that a lot of counties would lose sleep over, however in 2010 Limerick came desperately close to beating Kerry in a Munster Final and to have lost so much ground to them in the space of twelve months must be hugely disconcerting. Injuries to Jim O’Donovan, Eoin Joy and John Galvin rob them of a lot of presence around the midfield sector, not to mention the inspirational leadership that Galvin brings to any game.

However there is also plenty of cause to hold fire here – Offaly’s performance in O’Connor Park against Monaghan was hewn out of a fierce desire to prove a point after letting themselves down so badly against Wexford. Their need to set the record straight in front of their home supporters (and three times as many Monaghan supporters) was palpable and it’s far from certain that they’ll have the same passion for performance now that they are no longer the subject of criticism on the national airwaves. On the grounds that if they play well, they can win well, but without wanting to risk too much capital on the psychology involved, we’ll take 8/1 from Ladbrokes about Offaly winning by 7-9pts inclusive.

Antrim vs Carlow

Antrim are marginally the better team, they have home advantage, and they have some momentum after winning their most recent game – all advantages in their favour. However while these advantages are useful, they do not explain odds of 1/7 Antrim and 11/2 Carlow. Carlow’s win over Louth was a huge milestone for the county and having got a taste for success and now been handed a winnable tie in the qualifiers, it would be a huge shock if Carlow lay down easily in Belfast. Luke Dempsey’s grievances over the throw in time are understandable but still it’s hardly the huge obstacle that he suggests, while he’s also well versed in plotting through the qualifiers from his time with Westmeath and Longford.

Antrim are a very solid team but they don’t score much, and much like a boxer without a knockout punch, they always give a weaker opponent a chance. Seán Gannon is a big loss, but there are scores in Willie Minchin, his replacement, while Cormac Mullins is there to come on at any stage. Purely on price, 11/2 is worth a shout.

London vs Waterford

Perhaps this columnist is just suffering from a touch of the Doubting Thomas syndrome, but the idea that London are suddenly a force to be reckoned with in the qualifiers defies logic. Their win over Fermanagh was great for the GAA community in London and it was the least that a lot of devoted Gaels over there deserved, but Fermanagh were absolutely in tatters going over there so people suggesting things like London suddenly having the potential to go all the way to the quarter finals are getting hugely carried away.

The problem for punters this week is that the signs are that Waterford might not be in great shape either. Last week they were torn asunder by Limerick in a challenge match and so they too could be vulnerable. Waterford at full speed and with everybody tuned in would win this by six or seven points, regardless of how much London have improved. However without knowing for sure what state the Déise men are in, this is no bet country.

Down vs Leitrim

Clearly all is not well in the Leitrim camp. Wayne McKeon, their man of the match against Sligo, has left the squad due to disciplinary reasons, while the absence of Conor and Tomás Beirne from the match day panel is another baffling surprise. Leitrim football simply doesn’t have the depth to replace guys of this calibre and it must surely be devastating for players who have put their heart and soul into playing well for Leitrim to see things fall apart like this.

Down got their scare against Clare, and last year, after Down got scared by Offaly, they turned around and devoured Sligo in the next match. Leitrim look like they are in the wrong place at the wrong time, and even though Ladbrokes’ handicap of minus ten points looks high, we’re still going to recommend the 10/11 about Down covering that line.

In the tricky quest to find some value winners in the first round of the football qualifiers you may find some worth in noting the market movers. Here I’ll talk you through our thinking on some of the price changes made in the run up to today’s games.

A question I’m often asked is “How much money does it take to change a price?” To ask the question is to misunderstand the dynamic of the market. As John Maynard Keynes retorted when challenged about his shift in position on monetary policy: “When the facts change, I change my mind.”

In the case of the Sligo v Wicklow game the changing fact is that Sligo travel to Wicklow missing a significant number of players who would be expected to deliver the top level of performance that the county team is capable of. In the absence of these players our original price of 11/8 against a Wicklow victory was overly generous, so without seeing any significant amount of money for Mick O’Dwyer’s side we took the measure to reassess the game and move Wicklow in to 11/10.

Our price of even money Sligo is the best in the industry today. It’s not so much that we’re ‘out to get them’ but an under-strength side having been beaten by Leitrim then having to travel the breadth of the country for a first round qualifier tie look a selection that we’d struggle to lay at odds-on.

Another side that we are now stand-out against is Offaly. Having suffered a brutal beating against a county that they historically wouldn’t feel inferior to when Wexford wiped the floor with them, they were then dragged in to the controversy surrounding their county’s hurling counterparts when a high profile pundit – and a platoon of internet gossipers – questioned how they ‘refuelled’ between games. John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan quit the panel, and of course Offaly would not be renowned for blazing a trail through the qualifiers.

Even with a home draw things are stacking against Tom Cribben’s side. Monaghan on the other hand were nobly defeated by Tyrone, perhaps exceeding expectations as a new-look championship side took the game to the Ulster champions. A hard luck story in Dick Clerkin’s sending off presents an opportunity to ponder what might have been; they seem to be a unified and focussed panel that expects to improve through the qualifiers. We have the Ulster side in to 4/11 with Offaly now available at 3/1.

One selection that has been moved by market forces rather than team news is Down on the handicap against Clare.

We went up with a six point line on this game, Down at 10/11. It didn’t last so long. We saw interest from some customers whose view we respect and it became apparent that we were going to end up in an extreme position if we didn’t alter the prices. We cut Down to 4/5 and saw yet more money, so we went 4/6 and also opened up a new line at 7 points for customers who wanted odds closer to even money on their handicap pick.

Teams like Clare can be difficult to assess. They don’t get a lot of airtime or a lot of column inches. Their team news or reports on camp morale tends not to displace any of the headlines on the sports bulletins. What does reveal everything we need to know about Clare however is the weight of money opposing them. The punters penny is the key indicator, and we haven’t seen many notes cross the counter accompanying a docket with Clare +6 or Clare +7 on it.

Punt On!

• 1With question marks hanging over both these sides (Chelsea - John......
• 2The odds are so skinny on Ireland it may be wise......
• 3Plenty to keep the Winter chill at bay. Our Monty (10/1......
• 4Newcastle's Senegalese starlets Demba Ba and Papis Demba Cisse are back......
• 5With a busy day already done Laurence McCormack examines the Man......

• Twitter
• RSS
• You Tube