The GAA may get a lot of things wrong, but they have mastered the art of starting the National Football League with a bang in recent years and tomorrow night’s double header featuring Kildare vs Tyrone and Dublin vs Kerry is a genuinely mouthwatering attraction, one that should attract a substantial crowd for what will be an incredible night of entertainment. We’ll have a look at Kildare vs Tyrone later today, but for now, let’s have a look at the All Ireland final rematch to kick off our previewing for the week.

Dublin vs Kerry

Last year’s All Ireland final was not unlike an episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer for Dublin supporters, since so many demons were killed over the course of the match. They beat Kerry in an All Ireland final, they delivered a fantastic comeback when it looked like they were dead and buried and thus proved their mental fortitude, and above all they bridged the 16 year gap and ensured that the Sam Maguire Cup spent the winter in the nation’s capital city. Their priority for 2012 will of course be to retain that title and while any victory over Kerry is a good day’s work, much like the O’Byrne Cup semi final two weeks ago, this is a game that Dublin would like to win, but yet they have no real need of doing so. Bernard Brogan, Alan Brogan and Paul Flynn are among the significant absentees from the forward line, but Mossy Quinn has been in good form so far this year while Diarmuid Connolly is capable of scoring well, so that’s not really our concern.

Traditionally opposing Kerry in the first round of the league is a good policy to keep. They’ve often come out of the blocks slowly and usually bounce back in week two. That said, it’s never good to underestimate the intensity that a Kerryman can bring to a game if he feels in any way slighted. Last year was supposed to be Colm Cooper’s year to lift the Sam Maguire and while Dublin probably deserved their narrow win in the final, Kerry can certainly feel a little aggrieved with a few marginal decisions that went against them, none more so than the free that was awarded and converted by Stephen Cluxton to win the game. Dublin are a long way off full fitness yet and even without the Dr Crokes players, Kerry look like the more motivated side here.

Down vs Donegal

Last year Donegal hit the ground running, this year so far they’ve been very flat and the general consensus appears to be that a home win is the most likely outcome here. This column is not so sure about that. Derry shut down the highly rated Down attack in the McKenna Cup semi-final and thoughDonegal are missing a few very important players for this game – in the absence of Colm McFadden, Michael Murphy and Mark McHugh, one wonders where their scores will come from – this is a game where both managers will be drawing heavily on their reserves. In that context, the team with the best system, where panel players can slot in and do a job, may have the advantage and that suggests Donegal can be competitive in what could be one of the lowest scoring matches of the weekend. The match odds seem correct, so we’ll side with a shutout here.

Laois vs Mayo

Laois outdid themselves to secure promotion to division one last year, but one wonders if it will seem like a pyrrhic victory after a tough campaign in the top flight this Spring. Games away to Donegal, Kerry and Cork look like lost causes before the start, so they will have to look at taking at least five if not six points from their four home fixtures to have any chance of staying up. Mayo have been moving well so far this Spring and even though Laois tend to go well under lights at O’Moore Park, we suspect an arduous league campaign starts tomorrow night for Justin McNulty’s men.

Armagh vs Cork

Ladbrokes posted up 1/2 about a Cork win earlier this week and they were quickly brought back into line by the weight of money, while even the 2/5 that was generally available is starting to move now, as the punters line up to take on a home side shorn of their Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Armagh have sometimes surprised us in the past with strong performances at home, but two debutant corner forwards either side of a full forward who is more known for his workrate than his finishing does not suggest that they will score freely this weekend. Now look at the Cork team – arguably stronger than the side that lined out in their last championship match, due to players returning from injury. Taking a global view, it seems wrong not to recommend a single home team to win in a full round of games, but despite an inspecific sense of uneasiness about doing so, logic forces us to back Cork to cover the spread here.

Division One Recommendations

Dublin vs Kerry: Kerry @ 11/10 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Down vs Donegal: No Goalscorer @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)

Laois vs Mayo: Mayo -3pts @ 23/10 (Powers – alternative handicap)

Armagh vs Cork: Cork -3pts @ 11/10 (William Hill)

A quick look down the card of the hurling fixtures taking place this weekend very quickly reveals that whatever else is likely to happen, attendence figures are highly unlikely to challenge the decent numbers that have been posted in the McKenna and O’Byrne competitions this year so far.

The largest crowd of the day will quite possibly be in the unlikely venue of Rathdowney, where Laois will take on Dublin and look to continue to build momentum after overcoming DIT in the first round of this competition. On last year’s championship form, it would be hard to conceive of a more mismatched pairing than these two. Laois crumbled to an appalling ten goal defeat to Cork in the qualifiers, while the Dublin hurlers came desperately close to knocking off Tipperary in the All Ireland semi-final. In championship terms, these sides live in different worlds. Yet, despite all this, Laois will feel they have a chance tomorrow. Teddy McCarthy’s arrival as manager has led to a renewed push from everyone involved in Laois hurling and last year’s Laois team would never have come back from seven points down against anyone, even a college team like DIT. They have a few good hurlers to come back in, and their All Ireland will be their league match against Offaly in Tullamore. They’ll target that fixture and they need to be flying fit now, while Dublin are realistically looking at preparing for July and August – and possibly even September.

Ultimately the result of this game will depend largely on the attitude of Dublin. If Anthony Daly fields even a moderately strong team, or his players are tuned in and go all out for this game, they will win. However good sides don’t always put their best foot forward in this competition, while Laois usually hit form early. Last year they knocked Wexford out of this tournament, in 2010 they beat Kilkenny in the Walsh Shield. If there was 4/1 or bigger available, we might recommend Dublin for a shock win, but seeing as the biggest price is 10/3 with Powers, we’ll hold our fire here. Those very keen to have a bet could do worse than take the 10/3, but it’s just not quite big enough for our taste here at Starbets.

Ollie Baker’s Offaly side were expected to cruise past Westmeath in their Walsh Cup first round fixture, but instead they succumbed to a desperately poor seven point defeat in Kinnegad. Their team looked relatively strong when measured by the amount of recognisable names, however hurlers like Shane Dooley and Diarmuid Horan, though immensely talented, aren’t long back from America and will need some time to get up to the pace of the game. All round there were plenty of signs of ring rust from the Offaly hurlers and while Wexford didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory against NUIG, they do have home advantage this week. These sides rarely get results against each other on the road and while there might be some bit of backlash from Offaly, it’s safe to assume Baker will be looking further down the road at when his players will be up to the pace, and when he can call on the services of the Coolderry contingent. Wexford should win on Sunday.

DIT fielded some decent hurlers against Laois and based on that form, they should have enough to come through the challenge of Carlow, but the danger here is that they rest players in advance of their crucial Fitzgibbon Cup match next Thursday against IT Carlow. With only an away trip to NUIG to follow, DIT are in a must win situation this Thursday and it would be a surprise if they took too many chances here against the Dolmen County. The 2/1 with William Hill makes some appeal and should be taken to small stakes, simply on the basis that Carlow need a few more games to get themselves ready for the league and will improve significantly after finding their range against UCD.

Similarly down south, it makes no sense to trust Waterford IT to go all out against Clare when they have a tricky away fixture against Cork IT midweek. Clare should win this one, but the bookmakers seem alive to this prospect and so there really is little or no opportunity for betting here.

Weekend Hurling Recommendations

Wexford vs Offaly: Wexford @ 4/5 (Powers)

Carlow vs DIT: Carlow @ 2/1 (Hills)

The big market move this weekend has definitely been for the Tipperary footballers, who have gone from generally being offeres as 6/4 shots into 4/5 and 10/11 with most bookmakers. Paddy Power have really ducked the Premier men, going 4/7 about a home win in the McGrath Cup semi-final.

One thing is for certain, the Tipperary management will be hopeful of a much stiffer challenge this weekend because warm up games against Limerick IT and Waterford IT are no preparation for playing in the national football league. Those two colleges are way out of their depth in the McGrath Cup, even though Limerick IT did play some good football in their first round match. If UCC play up to their potential then we’d be recommending siding with the skull and crossbones wearers at odds against, however with the first round of the Sigerson Cup looming ever closer and little or nothing at stake, the worry here is that this flow of money emanates from people with an inside track who know that UCC will be taking their foot off the gas this week. If you’re one of those, then by all means pile in, but bookmakers shops all over Ireland are littered with people who have lighter wallets on account of following money, with no real insight as to why they were doing so. This column isn’t about to make that same mistake.

Now that the finallists of the FBD league competition have been decided, there is little or nothing at stake out west this week, so keeping stakes very low is again the correct course. Roscommon might be capable of upping their game for a battle with neighbours Mayo and 10/3 from Powers and Hills is probably worth a small, speculative wager, but only because of the big price. Based on the form shown so far, Mayo would win this one playing in ice skates, but form is temporary any time, all the more so in January.

Up north the bookmakers are probably on the ball with regard to their pricing, though 5/2 about Fermanagh knocking off Tyrone (Powers) will get some small level of support. Tyrone have much bigger fish to fry while Peter Canavan won’t want to be outdone by his home county men twice in a week, but will to win needs to be augmented by the ability to do so. We’re not quite sure if Fermanagh have enough of the latter quality, though they are brimming with the former.

Finally we look to Leinster, where Meath are favoured to overcome DCU in Navan and the Newbridge stewards are preparing themselves for a full house (at least if reckoned by their new, lower official capacity) when the Dubs come to town for the other O’Byrne Cup semi final. This column already has an outright bet on Kildare on the record so there’s no need to post up another, but everything we argued a week ago holds true. Kildare are playing well, flying fit and crucially, though Dublin would like to beat Kildare, Kildare need to beat Dublin. They won’t meet them in the league this year so this will be a crucial statement of intent in advance of the Leinster championship. Both managers will relish the opportunity to play such a fiercely competitive game this early in the year and this fixture will undoubtedly stand to both counties in advance of the big double header in Croke Park to open the league in two weeks’ time, but for now Kildare look better poised to come through what should be a very enjoyable game.

Ladbrokes are 4/5 about these teams combining for more than 28.5 points in Newbridge – with mild weather forecast and a high pace almost certain, that’s good enough for us for today.

Weekend GAA Recommendations

Mayo vs Roscommon: Roscommon to win @ 10/3 (Powers, Hills)

Kildare vs Dublin: Over 28.5 points @ 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

Now that the dust has settled on the first round of the O’Byrne Cup, now is a good time to step back and assess the first round games with a view to isolating any potential value in the antepost betting market at this stage of the competition.

Of the eight teams remaining, it seems easy enough to draw a line through three of the remaining sides at the very least. Longford laboured to a win over a very mediocre Athlone IT team and while they’ll give DCU plenty to think about this Sunday, that still represents a huge step up in class for them. Of course the county sides are the ones who should find the most improvement between rounds at this time of year since they are starting from a lower base in terms of fitness and cohesion, but even so any side worth their salt in this competition should have got through the challenge of a college like Athlone IT , who are a long way down the betting list for the Sigerson Cup, with a lot more to spare.

The football in O’Connor Park between Offaly and Westmeath was wholehearted, but both sides showed plenty of ring rust and the victors here will almost certainly exit the race for the O’Byrne cup this Sunday in Newbridge. Stand in manager James Stewart is entitled to be happy with how his team performed, but you won’t win too many games only scoring nine times and it wasn’t as if his players created many more chances – largely speaking their full forward line was very isolated and 3-6 was a very rich harvest off little or no supply to the inside men, including last year’s goalkeeper Alan Mulhall.

UCD’s win in Crettyard over Laois looks like good form on paper, but they were heavily dependent on Donie Kingston and that was against a woefully understrength Laois team. They too will find the going much tougher this week and unless they have some heavyweight players to spring for their match in Parnell Park this Saturday, they should be on their way out.

Of the five remaining teams, Louth will probably feel that they have a good chance after coming so close last year and God knows it’s difficult to go broke backing Louth to win football matches before Easter, but even so the psychological hold that Meath have over Louth is one of the most powerful in the GAA and even though Meath were far from spectacular in overcoming Wexford, even at 14/1 Louth make no appeal. While we wouldn’t dismiss them entirely as potential winners, price determines value and they offer little or none at this level.

Meath themselves would have to show a lot more in the next few weeks to merit serious consideration but even so at 5/1 with Ladbrokes, we’d be slow to write them off completely. Dublin and Kildare are both on the other side of the draw and there would be little to call between the Royals and DCU, who are also best priced at 5/1 with Paddy Power. DCU’s win over Wicklow was somewhat controversial, in as much as any O’Byrne Cup match could ever be controversial, and the Garden County felt a little bit hard done by not to at least have been given a chance at extra time in that fixture. Nonetheless such a tough tie will undoubtedly stand to the North Dublin students and they look well poised to continue their good run in Pearse Park this Sunday.

The Dubs used a lot more of their proven footballers than they would normally employ in this competition for their battle with Carlow at Dr Cullen Park, and that was undoubtedly a key factor in why they weren’t relegated to the O’Byrne Shield for the second year in succession. Pat Gilroy’s ability to spring a reliable scorer like Mossy Quinn from the bench was the crucial deciding factor in one of the most entertaining matches that took place last weekend and certainly there is no shortage of depth in Dublin football right now. Subsequently, picking heavily from the fringes of the panel is unlikely to weaken their side too severely.

However in terms of eye catching football, Kildare were by some distance the best side on display in Leinster last week. The nature of Kieran McGeeney’s system is such that it draws heavily on athleticism and power, but doesn’t necessarily ask players to be gifted or inventive on a consistent basis. Because of this and the approach in Kildare which asks the junior and under-21 sides to apply the same tactical strategy, McGeeney is able to slot in any number of footballers into his system and know that they’ll work well within his team and probably overpower their opponents. DIT are clearly not at the same level as they were in 2011, but even so they still possess several decent footballers who will expect to start for their counties in the summer and the manner with which Kildare swatted them aside was hugely impressive.

Kildare should saunter through the challenge of Offaly this week and while playing Dublin will be a much tougher test if that match comes to pass, overall they look like very solid 5/2 shots right now with Ladbrokes. Indeed it’s notable that Powers went 5/2 on Monday, but have since cut the price into 2/1, presumably due to bets being laid at the larger odds.

O’Byrne Cup Antepost Recommendations

Kildare to win @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)

DCU to win @ 5/1 (Powers)

Hot on the heels of the first part of our series, now we detail the top half of our hurling power rankings. We left off the first part with one county that had just recruited a local legend to take the reins so now, we resume with another….

7. Clare (8 – Slight improvement)

With a proven manager in charge and a lot of fine young prospects coming into their prime, Clare should be set to move well up the pecking order in the next few years, though Banner supporters will be slightly worried that they haven’t made more ground up by now. Last year in the Fitzgibbon Cup there were ten colleges that were competitive – Clare had 22 starters for these ten colleges, more than any other county, with the exception of Kilkenny. The significance of this is that Fitzgerald can afford to push his team very hard because the depth is there in the county to sustain a few losses. If players like Darach Honan, John Conlon, Caimín Morey and the like start to deliver on their huge potential they will shoot up the rankings and secure some very big wins, but we’ll temper our expectations for the moment and say that a Munster semi final win against Waterford is well within their grasp.

6. Galway (4 – Slight improvement)

Loads of underage talent, a new manager at the helm with a good track record, and a club championship that yet again proved itself to be one of the deepest in the country in terms of talent – you’ll forgive us if we say that we’ve heard it all before. On paper, Galway should be there or thereabouts every year, and yet they’ve only reached the last four once in the last ten championship campaigns. In 2010 they absolved themselves by saying that they should have beaten Tipperary, who went on to win the All Ireland. There can be no such excuse in 2011 after an abject defeat to Waterford, who should have been mentally broken after leaking seven goals in the Munster final. Logic dictates they should improve, but on the other hand, why would 2012 be any different to every other year when they promised greatness only to fall way short?

5. Waterford (6 – Disimprovement)

Time to get off the fence here. This column’s view is that people don’t realise yet what an incredible job David Fitzgerald did with very limited material in Waterford, so subsequently they will struggle to keep up the same standard next year and will probably slip down the order considerably. They may not be overtaken by too many other counties, but they ended 2011 maybe seven or eight points off All Ireland winning standard – expect that to move out to double figures at least. There are some good young hurlers in the county but it’s hard to look at those hurlers under 25 in the county and say that any of them have the making of another Tony Browne, John Mullane or Brick Walsh, all of whom are either retired or nearing that stage. Their first round league meeting with Cork in Páirc Uí Rinn is a massive fixture for them. Relegation to 1B will be difficult to avoid if they don’t win that tie, and their players might not have the mental strength to overcome a setback of that nature.

4. Limerick (7 – Slight disimprovement)

Their bookmaker ranking of seven is a little harsh and is probably more a reflection of the Munster championship draw that pits them against Tipperary in the quarter final. They appeared to turn a corner in 2011 and after comfortably securing promotion, they were narrowly edged out by Waterford in a wonderful Munster final. Their qualifier performances were very solid and they can consider themselves very unlucky to lose out to Dublin in a game where goals were very much the difference between the sides. John Allen will provide a steady hand on the tiller but they need to find a bit more steel in the full back line and possibly a consistent point scorer from play up front, someone who can be depended upon to raise two or three white flags even on a bad day. Right now there is no Limerick forward that meets that description – though several of their younger players could yet grow into that role.

3. Dublin (3 – improvement)

Not unlike Kildare in football, Dublin are in a “don’t look down” situation. They are going hell for leather and continue to take steps forward as a result, but standing still is not an option for them as they will slip right back as soon as they do. The second they take their foot off the accelerator, they will struggle to rediscover their momentum and they need Anthony Daly to keep pushing his players on. He’s not without fuel for the fire however – they proved in 2011 that they can win big games, they showed no fear of Tipperary in the All Ireland semi final and next year’s draw is ideal for them. Tthey can take on Kilkenny early and either secure that elusive championship win over the Cats, or else take their time and rebuild through the qualifiers and use what they learned later in the year. They have youth on their side, and Conal Keaney’s return will change their dynamic completely. Genuine All Ireland contenders in 2012.

2. Tipperary (2 – Slight disimprovement)

Consistently strong throughout the team, but Eoin Kelly continues to slow down and Lar Corbett struggled in the All Ireland final. Being so one-sided at the top level of the game was always likely to cause problems for the Sarsfields man and now that the Cats have figured out how to counteract Tipperary’s pattern of movement up front, Corbett will struggle to get himself into the same goalscoring positions. There are too many good hurlers in the county for Declan Ryan ever to have to field a “weak link” but in contrast to Kilkenny, how many Tipperary hurlers can we say are definitely the number one in Ireland in their position? Michael Cahill, Padraic Maher and Corbett are the only three that stand out and none of those man a central role. It’s a lot more than some other counties have, but you need more than that to usurp this Kilkenny team.

1. Kilkenny (1 – No change)

Yet again, Brian Cody took apart a good team and rebuilt it to become even better. In 2009, Kilkenny won the All Ireland but it was clear that Tipp were gaining ground and in 2010 the Premier men deservedly took the big prize. Last year Kilkenny defied their critics and roared back with an outstanding season and it’s hard to pick holes in any aspect of their setup. For as long as Brian Cody retains his incredible thirst for success and Henry Shefflin continues to compete at his incredibly high level they will be right up there, but next year they will have to be on guard for a challenge from Dublin. They’ve got Tipp figured out for the moment at least, but Dublin could have the fresh approach that might be their undoing. Deserved favourites and the best team in Ireland right now however.

And so, we come to the race for Christmas number one – the real Christmas number one. In the race to become the leading Gaelic Football county in Ireland, there’s no shortcut available, such as going through a reality TV show – it takes years of hard, painstaking work and as Donegal manager Jim McGuinness will certainly testify, there’s no point in playing to impress the paying public!

As always, counties are listed in order of Starbets ranking, but with the bookmaker ranking in brackets, calculated based on an aggregate of all 2012 All Ireland odds, followed by our prediction as to whether the county will be moving up or down the chart in 2012.

8. Tyrone (6 – Disimprovement)

Your columnist was sorely tempted to court publicity by ranking the Red Hand men outside of the top ten, and based on 2011 alone, we could have stood over that view. Their failure to make a real push in division two was worrying, particularly the dropped point against a very mediocre Meath team when anything less than a win was likely to prove fatal. However it would be foolish to ignore the incredible achievements of this county over the past decade. However while they should go well in the league this year, we expect them to be found out in the championship. Dublin and Donegal each exposed weaknesses in their team and tactics and while Mickey Harte is beyond criticism, it could be fast approaching the time when the players need to hear a new voice at the helm.

7. Down (8 – Disimprovement)

2011 was a disappointing year and the news that talisman Martin Clarke, along with their incredible young prospect Caolan Mooney, will be playing AFL instead of NFL next spring is deeply worrying from a Down perspective. Modern defences appear to have figured out how to counteract the threat of Benny Coulter and incredibly, the question marks surrounding the spine of the defence and indeed the midfield remain. Their scoring power gives them a chance against anybody, particularly in Croke Park, if they get back there. That’s a big “if” though.

6. Donegal (7 – Slight improvement)

Firstly, ranking Donegal outside of the top four even though they made the semi-finals may seem harsh, but their 2011 approach will only get you so far against good teams and right now, they would be underdogs, with this odds compiler at least, against any of the five counties yet to be named in this column. However the reason we think they could be destined to climb the ladder is the fact that they will be acutely aware that they need to evolve their approach and Jim McGuinness has both the mental acuity to recognise this and the quality of player available to implement a variety of different approaches. His players will follow him wherever he leads them, and to see how strongly he reacted to Kevin Cassidy’s part in Declan Bogue’s book, even though nothing was said, was instructive. Even more instructive was how none of the other Donegal players spoke out on behalf of Cassidy. They want to be part of Donegal’s footballing future, and rightly so.

5. Mayo (5 – Slight disimprovement)

After they laboured under John O’Mahony and struggled to deliver the success that the county craves, Ballintubber’s James Horan had a very promising first season in charge of Mayo, guiding his team to a Connacht title and a hugely significant All Ireland quarter final win over Cork. That result over the then All Ireland champions illustrated the potential that lies in this group of footballers, but the gulf in class in their All Ireland semi final meeting with Kerry made it very clear how much work remains to be done. As modern midfielders evolve into more mobile, all round footballers, the O’Shea partnership remains something of a throwback to a bygone era. It would a brave man who would bet against the Breaffy men on a tight pitch where the ability to play good contact football is paramount, but if the goal is to beat Dublin and Kerry, one suspects that a makeover will be needed in that section since their immobility would be taken apart against that standard of opponent.

4. Kildare (4 – Improvement)

No team was treated as badly by lady luck in 2011 as the Lily Whites, and on the grounds that the break of the ball evens itself out over time, they clearly have to be well watched in 2012. Kieran McGeeney has complete and utter respect from his players and crucially, he has them implementing a system whereby the success of the system is dependent on their workrate and sticking to the plan, rather than the mercurial talent of a group of individuals. Even John Doyle, the star man of the squad, is being deployed in a more workmanlike role. For as long as they continue to push on, they will continue to improve, and Kildare should come very, very close to All Ireland honours in 2012. The danger for the county is that in every sense, they are burning a lot of fuel. Players cannot continue to put in this level of effort for too long, while equally their county board can ill afford to continue to underwrite one of if not the most expensive county team to run in Ireland. When their star does burn out we suspect it will crash spectacularly, but in the meantime they continue to ascend.

3. Cork (3 – Slight improvement)

The Rebels appeared to regress in 2011, losing in Munster yet again and coughing up an early lead to go out somewhat pitifully against Mayo. As such they had to be downgraded from their top spot, however it would be easy to forget the horrendous injury list that Conor Counihan had to deal with. You can’t lose so many players of that calibre, mainly in the one sector of the field, and expect to be unaffected. With a full strength panel to choose from in 2012, they should find themselves right there in contention yet again.

2. Kerry (1 – Disimprovement)

Judging Kerry based on their 2012 showing is difficult, in that they did what they had to do in the championship, but until the final, they never really had to go into their higher gears. They were fortunate to get what was a relatively kind run to the final, but they took full advantage and there was no question but that Dublin got what decisions were going in that Croke Park decider. Nonetheless the issue of their ageing panel remains a very real one and the possibility that Colm Cooper will be denied a necessary operation until after March because of his involvement with Dr Crokes is far from ideal. Their younger footballers don’t seem to be of the necessary calibre so we’re going to stick our necks out and say that Kerry will slip a little in 2012.

1. Dublin (2 – No change)

It may seem lazy to just put the winners in the number one slot, but for several years now, people have said that Dublin lacked the ability to deliver on the really big day. This year they rode their luck a little certainly, but they also played some very good football when they needed to and to rescue the All Ireland final as they did was very impressive. The self belief that they will take from that can only be beneficial and with that in mind, no one county looks better poised to take the biggest prizes in the game in 2012.

Twas the month before Christmas, and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even in the O’Byrne Cup.

The county players currently training frantically and preparing for the 2012 season might beg to differ on the concept of the “winter break”, but for the GAA public, the only action to be found during the month of December is at your local club AGM, where treasurers give out about physios, hurlers give out about football, managers complain about lack of commitment and political coups are executed to varying degrees of success. It might be the kind of drama that members of soccer and rugby clubs can only dream of, but it’s still of little use to the betting public, since not even the most foolhardy bookmaker would like to start betting on who will be installed as the new PRO of Ballygobackwards hurling club, much less whether or not they’ll pass that motion suggesting a change in the structure of the under-14 championship.

However those betting firms out there are very conscious of the fact that if they don’t offer us something, all our money would instead get wasted on folly like Christmas presents or brussels sprouts, so rather than allow such a ridiculous scenario to come about, they’ve suddenly burst out of the blocks with betting for next year’s national football leagues.

It’s very early in the game to make any strong recommendations, however now is a good time to share our early thoughts, perhaps picking off some long shots that may dip in price before a ball is ever thrown in. Looking first at division one of the National Football League, and it’s safe to say that most punters will stay with the big three of Cork, Kerry and Dublin, with Kerry perhaps likely to prove the least popular selection of these three. Colm Cooper will miss at least the first two rounds of the competition against Dublin and Armagh due to his involvement with Dr Crokes, as will several other of the Killarney based players, which will be a stumbling block for a lot of potential backers, however Kerry are well used to losing the first round of the league, while Armagh will certainly be a lot more depleted for their round two meeting due to the absence of the Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Kerry’s reputation as non-triers in the league might seem justified in the light of their comparitively stronger record in championship football, however the 3/1 on offer from William Hill and Boylesports could yet be a decent price. After all, anyone backing the Kingdom at that price for each National League campaign during the last decade would still be showing a profit now after outright wins in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

The fixture list could have been more kind to Jack O’Connor and his panel as it will send Kerry to both Croke Park and Páirc Uí Chaoimh in the spring, however there are Kerry footballers who have played more county games in Croke Park than in Tralee, while the Leeside venue is hardly unfamiliar territory either.

Of the outsiders in this division, Donegal at 10/1 with Boylesports looks the most intriguing. The Kevin Cassidy saga could be a distraction, but Jim McGuinness’ strongest attribute is his ability to handle the mental side of management and he will undoubtedly find some way to turn a crisis into an opportunity, even if it does look to this outsider like a largely self made crisis. Getting four home games is very important to a remote county like Donegal and their week three battle with Cork at home will be their most significant fixture. They have a great chance of starting off with two wins and could very easily be top of the table if they can cash in on Cork’s huge round trip. While they’d have preferred to play Armagh early in the year when the Crossmaglen players wouldn’t be available, otherwise they can have few complaints about the schedule.

James Horan has made it clear in his first season in charge that he will, rightly, use the league for experimentation and with a good championship behind him, he’s under no pressure to get results next spring. They certainly won’t come easily to Mayo with a very real possibility that they will be underdogs in six out of seven matches. For the moment, we can safely draw a line through them in terms of potential winners, as we can through Armagh who will miss the Crossmaglen players for several rounds. Indeed we could possibly dismiss Down, who have concerns over key central positions and will also miss out on the influence of Martin Clarke, but they still might have an outsider’s chance if they avoid shipping too much punishment in the early rounds.

Other than the 10/1 about Donegal from Boylesports, there’s no price that we would say with 80% confidence will be shorter by the start of the season, so we won’t recommend diverting too much of the Christmas money just yet. But don’t go throwing it all in the collection plate at midnight mass – the New Year isn’t that far away.

St Brigids of Dublin and Portlaoise may have started the Leinster championship as joint favourites to secure the provincial title, but wildly varying fortunes in the first round for the two clubs means that it’s the Dublin champions who are the clear antepost favourites in advance of this weekend’s quarter final, currently best priced at 13/8 with Ladbrokes.

On paper, both sides should progress through their quarter final ties with minimal difficulty. Rathnew are coming off the back of a heartbreaking one point defeat in the Wicklow senior championship final and it’s never easy to bounce back from results like that, particularly in the space of a week. The general standard of club football has levelled out in Wicklow in recent years, with the consequence that the Rathnew men are no longer competitive on a Leinster stage. Portlaoise may have diced with death against St Patricks, but they should improve for coming through that test and with home advantage on their side, they should steady the ship this week.

For Horeswood, the prognosis is even more bleak. While they have some Leinster experience, their last two Leinster outings ended in heavy defeats to Moorefield and Clonguish, and Wexford clubs have been the soft touch in the province for some time now. One solitary win in the last decade of attempts, that coming for Starlights over Rathvilly in 2004 after a replay, is the sole reward for ten years of endeavour on the Leinster stage. The fortunes of Wexford’s intercounty footballers may be improving, but as long as so many of their leading players ply their trade in Dublin, their flagship clubs will always struggle.

With St Brigids facing into their sixth weekend of action in succession, many would suggest that Horeswood might have an advantage in terms of freshness. Sadly for the Wexford club, this isn’t the case either. Since they won the Wexford senior final most of the club’s efforts have been focussed on hurling, including a Wexford junior final as well as two Leinster junior club championship matches against St Brigids of Westmeath and Ballyfin of Laois. The Laois club finally ended their hurling year last weekend with a two point victory.

While it’s obviously useful to be match fit, a club like Horeswood taking a big step up in class this weekend needs to be playing challenge matches against other county champions, and ideally good ones. They can’t have been able to focus fully on this with their attention focussed on hurling and so they won’t be in a position to make the best of this opportunity. The time may come when the Castleknock/Blanchardstown club run out of steam, but this weekend they have the ability to win well while still leaving something in the tank. The handicap most commonly on offer from the bookmaking community is six points and if St Brigids are able to brush Summerhill aside, we suspect they’ll be well able to do the same to Horeswood.

Leinster Club SFC Recommendation

St Brigids vs Horeswood: St Brigids -6pts @ 11/10 (Ladbrokes)

One of the more memorable comments in the aftermath of Dublin’s victory in Croke Park last Sunday was Colm O’Rourke remarking how this could be the start of a long period of dominance for Dublin, and how other counties, particularly those in Leinster, might struggle to get a look in for the next few years.

No doubt the schoolteacher was speaking from the point of view of a man wondering if his own county of Meath might be a long time waiting before they got back to contending for a Leinster title, but he expressed a view shared by many in the aftermath of the final – that this is a young Dublin team with a lot more fuel in the tank and the ability to add to their list of achievements in the medium term future.

Bet365 clearly share that view, having installed the Dubs as 3/1 co favourites of three for next year’s Sam Magure title. Unquestionably the Dubs are genuine contenders, however the amount of effort that Dublin put into this campaign should not be ignored. The early morning sessions, training twice a day, these are the type of commitments that are very hard to sustain over a period of more than one year. What’s more, many of the Dublin players now have to look forward to a county championship being run of with blitz-like intensity, and won’t have the chance to rest their bones for the foreseeable future either. Pat Gilroy will have to prepare his team in a completely different way next year, and that may not work out as well.

Overall it’s hard to share O’Rourke’s view that this Dublin team could be about to embark on a long period of dominance. They should be there or thereabouts for the next few years, but teams that dominate invariably have a huge advantage in class over their rivals. The Kerry teams of the seventies and eighties had some of the most celebrated and talented footballers ever to handle an O’Neills ball, while Kilkenny’s hurlers from the past few years can make similar claims. If you rely on fire and brimstone to get you over the edge, you simply won’t be able to go to the well often enough. Clare hurlers, Armagh footballers, Tyrone Footballers and Wexford hurlers are just some of the teams that got over the line in the last twenty years only to fall short either a little or a lot. For teams with plenty of the nation’s best players in their ranks, it was a lot easier.

In the Egan family living room after the match, the topic of conversation quickly turned to speculating on who would win the man of the match award. The tone of the discussion was enlightening and it soon became apparent that this literally was a win forged out of collective effort, since outstanding individual displays were almost impossible to identify. If Kerry had held on, then Darran O’Sullivan or Marc Ó’Sé would have been right up there, but finding equivalents in blue was a tougher task. This is not an inordinately talented Dublin team when set alongside other All Ireland winning sides, which means that next year they will meet another team who has worked as hard as them, who could match them for effort and possibly pip them on hunger.

Systematically, Dublin don’t do anything that couldn’t be copied by a fit and disciplined team. Bernard Brogan gives the team that touch of class up front, but he hasn’t been at his best this year and yet Dublin came through regardless, largely down to sheer force of will. The winning mentality will be a huge asset to the Dubs also, but not so much that they are entitled to be considered on a par with Kerry.

Kerry started Sunday’s match as clear favourites, and ultimately the game was decided by one free kick, immaculately finished by Stephen Cluxton. A deserved win certainly, but not so clear cut that Dublin would be favourites if the two teams met again tomorrow. That message needs to be borne in mind before people start building up big antepost positions.

Looking at Bet365′s full betting market for next year’s All Ireland, Mayo at 25/1 look the most appealing selection, based on value criteria. They have a young, hungry team who would be willing to put in the hard work for their manager, they have a great depth of talent, and they have the considerable advantage of starting from Connacht, which for them could be as good as a bye into the last twelve. Their nine point loss to Kerry this year highlighted how far they still have to go, but an extra year of experience could mean the world to young forwards like Cillian O’Connor, Alan Freeman and Jason Doherty, while a little bit more defensive savvy could also go a long way for the current Connacht champions. They lost by such a large margin to Kerry because they chose to go out and go toe to toe with the Kingdom instead of shutting up shop, and while handicap backers might have preferred if they took a leaf or two out of the Jim McGuinness book of defence, they were no more second best than Donegal were against Dublin.

As a division one team, with no significant rival standing between them and a quarter final place, it certainly makes much more sense to be looking at 25/1 Mayo than 3/1 Dublin, albeit at this very, very early stage.

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