Last August, when Dublin put Tyrone to the sword in the All Ireland football quarter final, Colm O’Rourke mentioned in the post game commentary on the Sunday Game that this was a huge milestone for the Tyrone team. His view was that when the end comes for a great side like that, it tends to come with a bang rather than gradually. Now Tyrone could take several steps backwards and still be a fine side, but the outright odds on offer at the moment (11/10 with Ladbrokes, 5/4 with Powers) suggest that they would be 1/3 against Fermanagh on Sunday and 4/7 against the winner of Down and Derry. That simply can’t be correct unless they are worthy of consideration with the Corks and Kerrys of this world all over again.

In the last two years of championship, Down have done at least as much as Tyrone. They are a division one side, while Tyrone are deservedly in the second tier. Derry traditionally perform well in this competition, they’ve won three games against arguably three better teams than anything Tyrone have had to play, and all three sides have plenty of their better footballers available for selection. Anything other than 10/11 or 5/6 Tyrone outright in a final against either of these two sides is simply way too short.

Of course the problem with taking on bookies in outright betting is that it can be a lot easier to identify the bad value than the good. Even more so in a case like this, where the over-round is quite high and the bookie has to be very wrong to offer even a little bit of value.

What could change the goalposts however is that for the second half of last night’s match, Fermanagh looked as if they could cause Tyrone problems. Once the mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a tightly fighting jersey that is Seamus Quigley came onto the field Fermanagh looked a lot more potent up front and they dug deep to come very close to salvaging the game. Any team will tell you that it’s difficult to beat the same side twice in a row, particularly in a contest like this where the prize would be a huge boost to Fermanagh but would be of little value to Tyrone.

Powers go 2/5 Tyrone to win the game while Hills are much more aggressive on the Red Hand men and offer them at 8/15. The true price probably lies somewhere in the middle, meaning that it’s possibly a 67/33 split as to which of the West Ulster counties makes it to Sunday week’s final.

With such a very live possibility of Fermanagh making it to the final, the value appears to lie with Down, currently 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Followers of this column are already behind the Down men, but if you aren’t already, that price is well worth an investment. It will be close enough to accurate if Tyrone make the final, while if there is an upset in the second game at the Morgan Athletic Grounds, it will almost certainly mean that Down backers – providing of course they get through their semi-final meeting with Derry – will be sitting pretty.

Derry themselves cannot be discounted as the Oak Leaf men are playing some fine football and wins over Donegal, Cavan and UUJ cannot be sniffed at – nonetheless the standard from now on will be that bit higher and it’s hard to see the 3/1 as anything other than a fair price at best.

Of all the preseason competitions, none is treated more seriously than the McKenna Cup, where games are generally quite competitive and usually played in front of much larger crowds than attend any of the corresponding tournaments in the other provinces. Perhaps it’s something to do with a more meaningful programme of games instead of a knockout structure, or perhaps it’s due to the fact that Ulster counties often look to peak that bit earlier in the season due to their more open provincial championship, but either way some of the most attractive fixtures taking place this weekend are in the Ulster province.

Plenty of attention will be centred around the first competitive game in Fermanagh since Peter Canavan took charge, and the bookmakers are obviously expecting some sort of bounce under the helm of the Errigal Ciarán man since they make Fermanagh the narrow favourites, but the early indications coming from the Erne county suggest that Canavan has a huge task on his hands turning around their fortunes, and that it might be some time before the fruits of that work are visible. Their most recent challenge match result was a ten point loss to a visibly understrength Monaghan team, and after the game, many observers raised questions about the state of fitness of some of the Fermanagh players. No matter how good Canavan turns out to be as a manager, he simply doesn’t have the depth to cast aside players who aren’t quite where they should be fitness wise, and expect a bumpy ride for the month of January as he tries to get his team moving as he would like. Antrim are very much an unknown quantity right now with Liam Bradley bringing in a good few new recruits of his own, but they have picked a very strong half back line and midfield, while Paddy Cunningham, Michael Magill and Conor Murray are proven intercounty standard forwards. They still might have the edge here.

Tyrone play Queens University in the other game in this group and the issue here is how to interpret Mickey Harte’s desire to have all his players available to him at this stage. With so many retirements and a couple of relevant injuries it was always going to be a new look Tyrone team this year, but there have been plenty of promising young footballers coming up through the ranks of the Red Hand county for the past few years and it makes no sense that Harte is so concerned about one or two students who presumably would get plenty of game time in the national football league anyway. The team selected doesn’t look particularly intimidating and it certainly doesn’t justify the 2/7 favouritism afforded them by Paddy Powers. Queens are expected to be a step behind UUJ in the race for the Sigerson Cup this year after several years of less than stellar performances at Freshers level, but even so they will be competitive and should give Tyrone plenty to think about.

Jordanstown face arguably the toughest task of any college team this weekend, taking on Donegal in Letterkenny. Jim McGuinness has come out and said that his Donegal team are in a much better place than they were this time last year, and since they were good enough to beat UUJ in the 2011 renewal of this event, if we could take that assertion at face value we could pile into Donegal. However a training regime involving two sessions every day is likely to take a toll on Donegal and with no real need to win the McKenna Cup, much less target this game, backing Donegal is a dangerous game here. After all, would anyone be really surprised if it emerged after the game that McGuinness had saw fit to put his players through a training session on Sunday morning? Powers and Boyles are both 1/4 Donegal and that price is putting a lot of faith in McGuinness to put his best foot forward in this fixture. We don’t share that faith.

Finally, having put up two outsiders, we’ll finish by recommending the best banker bet of the McKenna Cup coupon – Down to beat Armagh, best priced at 4/6 with Ladbrokes. These two counties have a fierce rivalry going back a long way, but James McCartan has clearly settled on the bones of his best squad and there is a lot of experience available to him for this game. In contrast Armagh manager Paddy O’Rourke is of course without his Crossmaglen players, he’s also without several other frontliners including Rory Grugan, Stephen McDonnell, Kieran McKeever and Kieran Toner. At their best, Armagh would be hard pressed to beat this Down side who have a lot of football under their belts already, and with a shadow team, it’s very hard to be optimistic for the Orchard County.

McKenna Cup Recommendations

Donegal vs UUJ: UUJ @ 10/3 (Powers, Boylesports)

Tyrone vs Queens: Queens @ 3/1 (Powers)

Down vs Armagh: Down @ 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

Perhaps because there aren’t any matches to bet on, or perhaps because the NFL season is reaching a climax and we decided to borrow an idea from across the Atlantic Ocean to end the year, this column took the somewhat traditional decision to end the year with an attempt at that great debate topic, alternatively known as the great space filler, the power rankings.

When Martin Breheny of the Indo puts together a similar list at the end of the season, the ratings largely follow along the lines of the championship performances that year, probably as much to avoid controversy as for any other reason. While this Starbets list is obviously taking into account 2011 performances as the most significant factor, we are also attaching some weight to the general potential of counties in question. After all, Galway footballers won one competitive match this year out of nine – yet it is a brave compiler who would rank them in the bottom half of sides playing football.

Equally there are sides ranked above teams that beat them in significant games – the most obvious example being Kildare, ranked above Donegal. The reasoning here again is similar – Donegal got the result on that particular day in August, but only the most irrational mind would ignore that an erroneous square ball decision was the only reason they even got a chance to play extra time. If the sides met again tomorrow in a vital battle, Kildare would be favourites, and rightly so. Anyway, let us begin our voyage of unsubstantiated opinion, spread  across four columns and counting down. Counties are listed in order of Starbets ranking, but with the bookmaker ranking in brackets, calculated based on an aggregate of all 2012 All Ireland odds, and the prediction for how our ranking will change over the next twelve months.

33. New York (33 – no change)

A nice easy one to begin. New York’s participation in the All Ireland championship owes more to tradition than logic at this stage and perhaps the time is coming when New York should have to compete with teams from Boston or San Francisco to secure their slot in the Connacht Championship. That’s a debate for another forum however.For now, expect them to remain, and to continue shipping beatings.

32. London (28 – No change)

Slight controversy here, as not many would rate London so poorly after their incredible summer. However while they did have a good campaign, ultimately all they achieved was a win over a Fermanagh team that clearly were not ready for championship football. Anyone who has also played football in London knows that the issue of travelling from South to North for training is a very real one, to be taken very seriously. Southside clubs Fulham Irish and Round Towers were the London Senior and Intermediate champions in 2011, and their players will find it difficult to commit to playing county football, another blow for the Exiles. Without the element of surprise, London will struggle this year.

31. Leitrim (32 – slight improvement)

It may seem odd to rank Leitrim so poorly after a reasonable summer, but there is a feeling that they really peaked in beating Sligo and they will struggle to find more this year. The county isn’t producing enough good young players and while they can always catch a team on the hop, they’ll struggle to beat any other county who play to their potential against Leitrim.

30. Carlow (29 – slight improvement)

Carlow have always had good footballers, but getting them to work together for the greater good of the county has been a difficult art. Their win over Louth was a great occasion for the county, but now they have to build on that, starting with the league where they need to make a real push at escaping division 4.

29. Waterford (30 – no change/slight disimprovement)

Waterford put in a powerful effort in their 2011 NFL Division 3 campaign and to end the year relegated was a devastating blow. They remain very powerful around the middle third of the field for a division four team but there is no sign of that all -important elusive scoring inside forward coming up through their ranks.

28. Clare (31 – no change)

Clare had a glorious chance to make it out of division four last year but they fell at the closing hurdles and their Munster championship campaign ended with predictable results. Nonetheless they have some fine individual players and their level of talent stands equal to at least ten other counties in Ireland. As such it’s hard to rate them too poorly.

27. Wicklow (27 – No change/slight disimprovement)

As discussed in the previous column discussing division four, the biggest drawback to bringing Mick O’Dwyer in as your manager is that there will come a point where he will leave. Underage and personal development of players will have been neglected, and quite often transferred players will return home, though Thomas Walsh beat the rush by getting out already. Nothing that the county has done at minor or under-21 level suggests that a real bounce is coming and a first round tie against Meath looks ominous.

26. Fermanagh (26 – improvement)

This is still a county full of committed footballers, and the recruitment of Peter Canavan as manager has to be a significant step in the right direction. Getting out of division four is the immediate priority and Peter will know that no matter how much improvement he gets out of his team, beating Down is probably out of reach just yet. Nonetheless the future is a lot brighter and nobody believes for a minute that 2011 was a fair reflection of Fermanagh’s ability.

Fermanagh start the year as the shortest priced favourite in any of the four national football leagues, which suggests among other things that the boomaking community don’t consider last year’s form to be in any way indicative about the potential that lies in this Erne County panel. Ladbrokes and Stan James/Betpack are going after Fermanagh at 9/4, while Hills are ducking them completely, offering them at 7/4 while going best price about five of the seven other contenders in this division. It’s pretty clear where Hills stand with a pricing strategy like that.

However before formulating a betting policy, or even taking a preliminary view, the question has to be asked; a county that last year failed to get out of this trapdoor division, played perhaps the worst half of football in the provincial championships against Derry and went on to lose to London, and shed many of their main squad players on the way, how can they be considered favourites for anything, much less when capable if unspectacular football counties like Limerick and Wicklow are also in contention?

Unquestionably, a huge part of this optimism on behalf of the bookmaking community has to be attributed to the man taking over the helm in Fermanagh, Peter Canavan of Tyrone. The man who played such a huge part in Tyrone’s All Ireland successes in 2003 and 2005 was without peer on the field for most of his career, and while it’s far from certain that he will be able to replicate that level of overachievement as manager, the probability that his appointment will give the county a huge boost is overwhelmingly high. In a county where the simple matter of getting the best footballers on to the field of play has been a huge concern, his very presence will create a buzz that should carry the county quite a long way.

The fixture list has also been extremely kind. Their two main contenders, Limerick and Wicklow, both have to travel to Brewster Park, while they have the two easiest opponents – Kilkenny and London – away from home. Of all the counties that could slip up against London this year, Fermanagh are by far the least likely to do so after what happened last year. Add in the fact that a third away game is against Carlow in round 9, when Carlow could easily have nothing to play for,  and these fixtures are so perfect that Canavan himself couldn’t have drawn them up any better.

Leitrim, Carlow and Clare are always tough opponents at this level but they’ve struggled to make the breakthrough for several years now, and there is no reason to believe that any of these counties should be any better in 2012 than they were for the past few years. Clare had the perfect run of games last year and still couldn’t get over the line, while Leitrim simply don’t have the depth to try out new players and still get results. A fixture list that sends them away to Wicklow and Fermanagh is no help either.

Waterford were competitive in division three last year and came within one red card against Louth of staying up. They should be capable of going well in this division, but this columnist couldn’t help but be a little bit spooked by the report from secretary Timmy O’Keeffe at the Waterford convention, where he said “However, if we are to remain competitive at inter-county level, particularly in hurling, we must continue to prepare our teams to the highest standards.”. Those three words – particularly in hurling – make it very clear where his loyalty will lie, and as long as a decent bunch of footballers are treated like second class citizens, they will struggle to improve.Of all Hills’ prices however, their 9/1 here is the most intriguing.

Limerick have to respected. Any side capable of reaching the All Ireland quarter finals has to be respected and a full forward line containing Ian Ryan and Ger Collins is capable of tearing any division four backline asunder. John Galvin’s long term injury is a huge loss as the Croom man is one of the best midfielders in the country and he too would stand out like a sore thumb at this level, however there is enough depth in Limerick football to be capable of going really well in this league. Their issue will be the fixture list. Their first five games are home gimmes against Kilkenny and London, and away dogfights against Clare, Leitrim and Wicklow. If they lose two of those three, and it would be easy to do so, they would have a real mountain to climb.

Of all the single figure priced teams in this year’s National Football League. this column’s bismarck by a long way is Wicklow. Expect us to oppose Wicklow in the betting hard and often next year, as the Garden County are about to experience something we like to call “The Micko Hangover”.

It’s no secret that Mick O’Dwyer brings enthusiasm to counties where getting everyone pulling together has been difficult. He has got results wherever he has gone and certainly Wicklow experienced a lot more success with the Waterville man at the helm than they had done for several years previously. However his methods when he goes to counties are broadly similar. Get nigh on a hundred lads in for training early on, weed out the less able and less willing ones, make the remainder very fit and use the league to prepare for championship where his team will take the field full of running, albeit always a bit more gravitationally challenged than the year before he arrived. Then, where possible, fill the gaps in the team with transfers from other counties. Younger footballers tend not to be exposed to high quality technical instruction, and while he gets the best out of the raw material that he has at his disposal, on an individual level players don’t develop as they should.

That’s where the Micko hangover comes in – counties struggling to pull themselves together for a few years after Micko has been around. Laois have done little or nothing in the championship since he left, and while they are now a division one team, they were always a good league side. They continue to underachieve where it counts. Kildare took a few years to get back on track as well after his departure and now Wicklow will experience the same issue. The really disappointing thing from a Wicklow perspective is that more than any other county, they needed to get out of division four. Not since the 1996/97 season when Wicklow won five games in what was then division three of four, and the following year where the league divisions were four equal unseeded pots of eight, have Wicklow ever played in anything other than the lowest tier possible.That’s simply not good enough for a county of Wicklow’s size and depth in terms of football.

Championship qualifier wins are all very well, but Wicklow’s players needed the development of playing football in division three, and they never really came close to getting out of the basement. If they couldn’t do it with Micko in charge, they certainly won’t now.

The first round of the qualifiers is a unique test for punters in that it is often a test of the ability to read minds and mindsets as much as it is a test of the ability to read footballing skill and attributes.

Most of the match ups usually lack the local rivalry element that add a little bit of heat to the encounter, and in many cases players are often more concerned about catching a flight to America, or perhaps even getting back to their clubs and getting on with domestic affairs, than they are with prolonging a county season that is often going nowhere to begin with.

Either way, here’s Off the Ground’s assessment of the eight football qualifiers taking place tomorrow.

London vs Fermanagh

This column’s honest assessment is this – it’s impossible to say what the right price is, except that 1/2 Fermanagh and 15/8 London, as Ladbrokes have chalked up, is simply not it. This was not the draw Fermanagh wanted at all, on any level. They have one of the smallest budgets on the intercounty circuit and a €20k trip to London was not what the doctor ordered at all. With London on a high, the general perception is that Fermanagh are ripe for the picking, and the money has reflected this, piling into the Exiles who were as big as 5/1 in places when the odds were first released.

If Fermanagh buy into all this, then London should be favourites. If Fermanagh travel over here determined not to become the first county to lose to London in the qualifiers and believing that there is still something to be salvaged out of this season, then they are 1/6 shots. After all London are still the same county that manage one league win over anyone other than Kilkenny every couple of years. As we said, 1/2 is not right, but ascertaining the correct odds is another matter entirely. The lot of the compiler is an unhappy one here.

Fermanagh minus three at 6/5 looks like the best bet here, given that even though their best players are at home, those that travel still have a lot of pride in the jersey and won’t lie down, and London have lost the element of surprise.

Clare vs Down

Clare have better footballers than they are often given credit for, and if they smelled blood in the water, they would be a real dangerous outsider. Unfortunately Down is simply too big a target, they needed a Cavan, Sligo, Offaly or Antrim to come to Ennis. The retirement of John Clarke, the injury to Danny Hughes, uncertainty over the defensive credentials of the half back line, all these issues still have to be addressed by James McCartan, but they won’t be solved this week. Either way, Down will win here and probably cover the spread in the process.

Louth vs Meath

Remember all that stuff in the first paragraph about how qualifiers often lack the bite due to counties meeting that have no axe to grind? Well scratch that for this one.

It’s a huge pity that this tie couldn’t take place in Louth, because this could have been a humdinger of a tie if it was played in Drogheda with supporters hanging from the rafters, baying for Royal County blood. That wasn’t possible, but even so Louth could be in with a chance here.

Much of the discussion after Kildare’s Leinster quarter final win over Meath centred on Kildare’s inability to shoot, which was fair comment but still missed the point from a Meath perspective. Meath won 50% of the primary possession in that game at least, and yet they had less than half the number of chances as Kildare.

Meath simply don’t know how to turn possession into scoring chances under Banty and a Meath team playing possession football is a round peg trying to fit into a square hole – it’s just not natural. Paddy Keenan can spoil the midfield at least, he won’t meet anyone as good as Brendan Murphy here, and while the Louth half forward line is hugely underwhelming, if Meath turn over ball the same way as they did against Kildare, then Lennon, Maguire and Rooney will get chances.

Louth being Louth, a heartbreaking defeat is always possible, so 6/5 about Louth plus two is the best play.

Offaly vs Monaghan

Even as an Offaly native, calling this one is tough. Offaly have the players to give Monaghan a tough time in Tullamore, but banking on them to be in the right mindset to do so is a risky game. The Wexford game hurt this team and management badly, and subsequent events that have accused them of being good-time-charlies can’t have gone down well either. In many counties that would lead to a backlash, but sometimes backlashes in Offaly don’t always work out how one would imagine. They often take place far away from the field of play.

Anton Sullivan is a huge loss and while the team named is certainly not that which will start, the withdrawal of John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan robs Tom Cribbin of several options so there won’t be that many surprises.

If Offaly get goals, this could be close, but they’ll need the rub of the green because they have proven that they can’t overcome any bad luck in the middle of games.

Laois vs Tipperary

The accepted wisdom regarding this fixture is that Laois were going the right way under Justin McNulty, they just overdid the defensive play and got blown away by a strong Dublin team. That’s as may be, but Tipperary played a strong Kerry team and got no luck, so it’s very early to say that they are way off the pace. Tipperary are a solid division three team, no better, no worse, while Laois are a cut above that. However the Laois half forward line is desperately short on scoring power and there remain question marks over the form of both Kingston and Tierney. Laois should win, but 1/3 with Ladbrokes is way too short. Instead, take even money about less than 28.5 points in the game. It’s hard to see either side scoring fifteen points in this game, never mind both of them.

Cavan vs Longford

It says a lot that despite all the comments directed at the problems in Leinster football, one of the weakest counties in the province is favoured to win away from home against an Ulster team who would probably be regarded as no worse than seventh in the northern province right now. This is a great fixture for the locals who share a keen rivalry but rarely get to meet on the field. Longford to win is the accepted wisdom, but it mightn’t be that simple. No bet here, there’s just too many talented forwards on that Cavan team who could hit form at any time.

Wicklow vs Sligo

What looked like a reasonable assignment for Sligo when the fixture was drawn up has grown more and more difficult as their list of absentees has extended. Johnny Davey and David Kelly are unable to return, Ken Sweeney has followed Keelan Cawley out of Ireland, Brendan Curran and Alan Costello are suspended and all in all Sligo look to have their work cut out for them. Ladbrokes appear to be of the same mind here, offering Sligo at a best price of even money, while only giving 11/10 to Wicklow backers. In a neutral venue, with both sides at full strength, Sligo would be 2/5 here – right now, Wicklow probably deserve narrow favouritism and would be the tentative call.

Antrim vs Westmeath

Two sides that were desperately poor in the first round, but the managers have taken a very different approach to this qualifier tie. Liam Bradley has picked the same Antrim side as started against Donegal, while Pat Flanagan has reverted to type with a very defensive alignment, including two wing forwards who would usually be known as defenders. The other side of this is that the selection of Denis Corroon as a wing back is an unusual one, but one that Gary Connaughton could look to target with kickouts.

The Westmeath hurlers would happily testify as to how difficult it is to play an away fixture in Belfast, so far from home, however the 13/10 makes plenty of appeal even so. Dessie Dolan and Denis Glennon is a fine inside forward pairing and while they were out-gunned against Wexford, Antrim simply don’t have the same scoring power to match them blow for blow. Another low scoring battle could be in prospect here, but we’ll give the tentative nod to the outsiders to sneak it. In fact Westmeath to win by 1-3pts would be our favourite winning margin bet of the week.

Action in all four provinces this week means that the football championship is well and truly underway, with local derbies, big handicaps, banana skins and everything else all on offer. The only thing genuinely missing is a close game that the bookies find a favourite difficult to agree on.

Going through the games one by one:

Laois vs Longford

The division two finalists versus the division four winners is the first televised game this Sunday and perhaps one of the most interesting from a neutral perspective. Longford’s season gathered momentum fromFebruary when they salvaged a draw in their first league match of the season against the Rossies and while Roscommon phoned it in for the Croke Park final, the feeling of lifting a trophy is always a nice one to carry through your next few training sessions. Longford’s win over Meath in a recent challenge match was very encouraging from the point of view of the Shannonsiders and certainly they have plenty of top class attacking talent.

The concern for Longford, and indeed the reason this column feels that Laois will win on Sunday by four or five points, is that they look way overmatched at midfield. McElvaney and Brady are two excellent footballing midfielders, but contrasted against the fielding power and presence of Clancy and Quigley, not to mention Colm Begley coming into the mix from wing forward, it’s very possible that Longford will be working with very litle primary possession. Laois will have to keep the goals out but they are excellent at keeping the scoreboard moving and not going through long scoring droughts. Narrowly, the preference here is for Laois minus three, and over 29.5 points, as is currently on offer with Ladbrokes.

Kildare vs Wicklow

As we discussed in our Leinster preview earlier this week, Kildare have kept a lot in reserve this Spring and it’s difficult to really get a feel for where they are. Mick O’Dwyer’s presence in the Garden county can sometimes blind people to the real state of affairs in Wicklow but they are a division four team and a couple of good one off days in the championship doesn’t change that. This isn’t a game where Off the Ground would be in a huge hurry to get bets on, but if we were, we’d probably back Kildare to cover. In truth this game is no bet country however.

Kerry vs Tipperary

Tipperary manager John Evans was in the news this week putting a brave face on his county’s draw, but realistically this fixture is not what Tipperary wanted at all. The Premier men have overtaken Limerick as the leading also-ran in Munster football, but they are still a long way off the big two and they need some wins this year to continue moving in the right direction. Ladbrokes’ eight point handicap looks about right, and while they will probably get a lot of players on their over 31.5 total points at 10/11, we wouldn’t recommend that play. Tipperary play a very defensive game which is dependent on absorbing opposition pressure and Barry Grogan carrying the attack. It’s hard to see Tipperary scoring more than eleven or twelve times here since they are not built to chase deficits. and a final tally of 1-16 to 0-11 or similar is possible.

Cork vs Clare

These two sides are a world apart and the eleven point handicap is impossible to call since Cork could cover this if they want to, but if its 0-16 to 1-5 going into the last ten minutes, how motivated will the Rebels really be? Cork will cruise through this game and win by a margin commensurate with their energy expended, however that’s not a good basis for betting.

Instead we suggest looking at the goals markets, in particular the “Who will score the first goal”. Cork are not set up to score plenty of majors while Clare will be chasing the game. 12/5 about Clare to score the first goal is a very attractive bet, simply because they are much more likely to go after goals here. Cork will score twenty times here in all likelihood, but would anyone be surprised if all twenty of those scores were points?

Derry vs Fermanagh

It’s impossible to go through all the turmoil and upheaval that Fermanagh experienced in the Spring and not be affected later in the year. Fermanagh are wonderful battlers but if you’re struggling to get through a division four league campaign, you’re simply not prepared to extract a championship result out of Celtic Park. Losing Paddy Bradley is a real blow to Derry’s chances in the long run, but it shouldn’t affect them here. Certainly his loss does not compare with the amount of players Fermanagh won’t have available to them from their 2010 squad. The Erne men may regroup in the qualifiers but they will do well to stay within the handicap here – we suspect they won’t.

Sligo vs Leitrim

Ladbrokes are very much on Leitrim’s side here, offering a four point handicap as opposed to the five that is generally available and this column would be in agreement with that view. Headlines regarding Leitrim bringing in seven debutants are a little un-nerving from the point of view of those contemplating a bet on the GAA’s most notorious underdogs, but many of those debutants played some excellent football for Leitrim’s juniors in their recent narrow defeat to Mayo in the Connacht JFC semi final, and others have played some really good football in the national league. Sligo are missing Mark Breheny and David Kelly up front, the selection of Eamonn O’Hara at centre forward suggests that they are going to play defensively since there is no way that the tanned Tourlestrane man is going to line up on the Leitrim side of midfield, and in Emlyn Mulligan Leitrim have an excellent orchestrator of their own at eleven.

Leitrim are good at playing competitively in games, they are not good at winning. Sligo to win by 1-3pts at 10/3 is a cracking bet and definitely the best wager of the week.

The start of the GAA championships on Irish soil (or indeed on soil of any kind) is upon us, with Antrim’s trip to Donegal getting the Ulster football championship underway on Sunday, while Laois play Antrim’s hurlers in the first Leinster hurling championship tie of the year on Saturday evening in O’Moore Park.

This week, with that in mind, we’ll have a run through all the provinces from an antepost betting perspective and see if we can’t at least draw a line through a few of the counties in a bid to isolate where the real value lies.

Since it’s Ulster football getting things underway this week, up north is as good a place as any to start with our football preview blogs. Tyrone are clear favourites and Ladbrokes have them at 2/1, and while this column believes that this Tyrone team is running out of road, it’s still difficult to oppose them in Ulster this year.

Monaghan were somewhat unlucky to suffer relegation from division one this season as they played quite competitively throughout, however Tyrone have something of an Indian sign over Monaghan in the championship in recent years, beating them three times out of three meetings since 2005.

Eamonn McEnaney unearthed some good young talent during the league campaign but they are still hugely reliant on a few key performers that are edging past their best. Their display against Kildare in last year’s fourth round qualifier illustrated just how much energy they had sunk into their Ulster championship campaign and while the change of management will have freshened things up somewhat, they still could struggle to find enough in the tank to get past Tyrone.  Tyrone in turn are stumbling in their attempts to find the higher gears, but they can scrape through to an Ulster final on memory alone and once they reach that stage, it’s well worth having them covered.

This weekend Donegal host Antrim and while Off the Ground suspects that there is real upset potential here, certainly at the odds of 9/2 being offered by Ladbrokes at the moment, only Donegal have any real long term potential out of this pairing. Their inside forward pairing of Michael Murphy and Colm McFadden is very difficult to stop simply because they can score with high or low ball in, while Jimmy McGuinness has developed an excellent work ethic throughout the rest of the team.

It’s been four years now since Donegal won an Ulster championship match despite getting plenty of home draws in that time so there will be a degree of mental fragility that still has to be worked out of the system. It’s for that reason that we’d suggest leaving the 13/2 for now and waiting until the semi final stages, when the banana skins have been avoided and they face into a game with Tyrone. They will still be no shorter than 4/1 or 9/2 at that stage, and it will make more sense to punt them there if at all. In honesty, four Ulster championship games can prove too much and it probably will be a battle too far for either of these teams.

The darkest of dark horses is Cavan, waiting in the wings for the winner of the match in Ballybofey. 28/1 is on offer about the Breffni men bridging a 14 year gap since their last Anglo Celt Cup and they’re not the kind of team that we like to oppose too readily. They have been consistent underachievers relative to their talent for some years now, and someday soon a manager will get that out of them and they will cause real problems for good teams.

It remains to be seen if Val Andrews is the man to do this but he has settled down their defensive structure, and up front Cavan possess some really top class forwards. They’ll take plenty of encouragement from their under-21 footballers who performed so well and right now this is a county that should be kept on side, simply based on the price.

On the other side of the draw, Fermanagh have no chance and not if the 33/1 was trebled would we suggest a bet on them. They cannot win an Anglo-Celt Cup with the kind of preparation that they’ve had this year.

Derry, their first round opponents, are another matter entirely however. They’ve completely slipped under the radar this year but with the exception of a horror show performance at home to Laois, they actually enjoyed a decent league campaign. Paddy and Eoghan Bradley are back in harness and playing well and while they don’t have as much depth as they might like, they can beat anyone in this province.

The problem here is the price. At 5/1, they are just too short to provide any real value. Even if we say that they are 1/10 to get through Fermanagh, that still makes them no bigger than 5/4 in each of the semi final and final – and that’s too short. Contenders, but no value.

Finally we have the big clash between Down and Armagh at the newly revamped Athletic Grounds, and this match features the best football team in Ulster and the value bet to win out – but those two teams aren’t the same.

Down are the best footballing side in the province and even though they can struggle to win possession around the middle, they have a craft and innovation about their play in the half forward line that is unmatched anywhere north of Listowel. Benny Coulter has become all the more threatening now that Martin Clarke has become the main man in the attack, while much like the Clare hurlers of the 1990′s, they have a supporting cast of forwards that are inconsistent, but yet on any given day each of Ronan Murtagh, Mark Poland, Ronan Sexton and Danny Hughes are capable of having a big day. If it’s not one, it’s another.

The problem is that as a lightweight side, by Ulster measures anyway, they can be muscled out of games and Armagh are just the kind of side to do that. It should not be forgotten here that amidst all the talk of how Ulster is the most open province in Ireland, it has been thirteen years since anyone other than Armagh or Tyrone won the title. These two counties know how to win and while they can sometimes be found out in the qualifiers, they have the resilience to dig out big results in tight provincial games. Gareth Swift is an All Star waiting to happen and with home advantage, Armagh can overcome Down and progress deep into this championship.

Overall, the best policy here is to place 50% of your total stake on Armagh at 8/1, 10% on Cavan just to be on the safe side, and 40% on Tyrone at 2/1 to ensure that you are covered in the event of one last big push from Mickey Harte’s men.

Now that the Irish punting public has bathed in bookmaker blood after an unprecedented day of six Irish winners at Cheltenham, the time seemed right to have a quick look at tonight’s under 21 football championship matches in Ulster – nothing is quite so much fun as playing with the bookies’ money after all!

The meeting of Down and Tyrone in Newry is the eye-catching fixture of the four, with Tyrone expected to go well this year in the eyes of most neutrals. Most of the 2008 All Ireland minor winning side are still on duty, while subsequent minor teams, including last year’s champions, have also added plenty of talent into the mix.

Despite this apparent abundance of footballing skill however, Tyrone’s form in preseason matches has been relatively poor, albeit with several of their leading names not available for selection. Generally speaking there has been a downturn in Tyrone football recently and as it is possible that we stand on the cusp of the real decline of Tyrone as a football force, they make little or no appeal at 4/6 away to a very dangerous Down team.

Down aren’t endowed with a wealth of senior experience, however they are very strong in the crucial diamond positions and they have a sharpness up front that will cause Tyrone problems. Tyrone are entitled to marginal favouritism but the feeling here at StarBets.ie is that they aren’t as well fixed as they could be and they should be swerved.

Cavan have had a very poor track record in this competition since the turn of the millennium however they did enjoy a good run to the final last year and have nine of the starters from that Ulster Final available again this year. They played some nice football in preseason competition and they will be widely fancied to come through tonight’s fixture.

All that said, 4/11 looks like a very skinny price. Fermanagh are going very badly at senior level but they have some good young players on duty tonight who have played some good football, while home advantage will stand to them too. With the seniors going so badly, there will be a lot of pressure on this group to deliver but at 5/2, they could be worth a small nibble.

Derry showed great resolve to come through a very tough test against Armagh in the previous round and the value of getting a game under your belt is huge at this level. Monaghan will feel that they have a good group of players here and while they will have their work cut out controlling the influence of players like Caolan O’Boyle, they have shown signs in preseason of having plenty of potential.

Monaghan’s win over Derry in 2008 at minor level is probably being factored in here too, though there are a few key absentees from that Monaghan minor side. The familiar surroundings of Inniskeen will also help, but from a betting point of view it’s the win over Armagh that swings our decision. Derry at 5/6 with Ladbrokes are the bet.

Finally reigning Ulster champions Donegal put their title on the line against Antrim and while Donegal must be respected, 2/7 is way too short. Antrim have a few very nice footballers in this team while it’s a completely revamped Donegal selection from last year. Mark McHugh is in great form and he’ll lead the Donegal charge but from a betting perspective, Antrim are the only call that could logically be made and at 3/1, they are the best bet of the night.

In the midst of a very busy weekend for the hurling section of the GAA community, a few key football games are also down for decision, most notably in division four where the need to escape football’s basement division is felt very keenly by a couple of counties keen to make good progress.

Clare’s meeting with Kilkenny is hardly worth analysing, however London on the other hand can’t be completely written off for their home game with Roscommon. The reigning Connacht champions should have come away from Longford with a win last week, but sadly for this column they failed to get over the line and a final tally of 0-10 suggests that they are badly missing Donie Shine, Senan Kilbride, Karol Mannion from their attack. London had a nice season opener against Kilkenny to get things underway and while beating an awful Kilkenny team doesn’t mean anything by itself, there will be some kind of feel good factor around the exiles for another while.

News breaking in London that players are unhappy about unpaid expenses is not encouraging, however a home meeting with Roscommon when the visitors are down several key players is a great chance to secure an historic win. There was plenty of nervousness to be found among Roscommon supporters before the first round of the Connacht championship last year, however that turned out to be unfounded. On this occasion, in wintry conditions and with London likely to have a spring in their step, this could be a dangerous trip. 11/2 to win the match might not happen but even money about London plus seven could very easily.

Leitrim’s win over Clare was a huge shock to most of the smart money as the Banner County were unquestionably one of the most popular bets of the week. On paper, this Leitrim team should really struggle this year, however it’s difficult to overestimate the value of positive momentum. Wicklow have made great progress in the championship in recent years, but in truth they would probably be a lot better off for having escaped the basement division in the league. Their draw with Carlow last week suggests that once again it will be a case of limp through the league and look for an upset or two. In that environment, Leitrim are possibly the better bet here, even if that goes completely against what we would have said a week ago.

Fermanagh’s trip to Carlow is arguably the most intriguing fixture of the round as it pits an improving Carlow team against a side that really should be looking to get out of this league at the first attempt. Fermanagh put in some very good performances in the McKenna Cup and while Dr Cullen Park is not an easy place to go, this is exactly the type of game they need to be winning if they are to secure promotion. 8/13 is maybe a little short, but Fermanagh should be the classier team here.

Finally in division three, Louth host Westmeath tomorrow in a rescheduled game from last week. Three home wins in the other three fixtures in this league proved that as was the case in 2010, division three is not unlike a men’s tennis match at Wimbledon. You have to hold your serve at home, and look to pick up a break or two against the serve to come out on top.

Louth have championship form over Westmeath from last Summer and are seen as the form team from their exploits in the O’Byrne Cup, but nonetheless there is a lot to like about this Westmeath team, even allowing for a lot of their unfamiliar faces. We liked Westmeath here in this column last week and nothing has changed since then. Westmeath at 6/4 still represent the better bet.

In an effort to make up the ground lost in the sub zero conditions the weekend before last, a full round of McKenna Cup fixtures are down for decision this Wednesday night, with Tyrone and Fermanagh each making their belated seasonal reappearance.

Already Ladbrokes have betting on the six games, offering strong favourites in four of the six ties.

Certainly the Magic Sign can’t be blamed for keeping Armagh very short, since St Mary’s College were really disappointing against Antrim while the Orchard men were relatively impressive in a high scoring game against Down. 2-15 to 3-11 is very impressive shooting for early January and while this column still retains a hunch that there will be a kick in the teaching students at some point, it probably won’t happen in the Athletic Grounds and one way or another, that hunch is becoming harder and harder to justify.

What cannot be denied however is that in the other section C game in Casement Park, Antrim pose a very live threat at odds of 6/5 against their neighbours to the South. Down, as is their wont, struck for goals at regular intervals against Armagh but for long stretches of the game they were outplayed, while many of their more established players are clearly still in Winter mode. This Down team is unquestionably a dangerous opponent and not one to be opposed lightly, however at the odds offered, only Antrim could be backed in any sensible staking plan.

In section B, it’s a statement of how weakened Monaghan are for this competition that they are underdogs at home to neighbours Cavan, who have very much played second fiddle to their rivals in recent years. However it’s hard to argue with the bookies running for cover until this falling market hits a bottom, so to speak. With so few recognisable faces in their lineup, Eamonn McEneaney is clearly using this competition to test out new players and they showed enough against Queens to suggest that he may have a few players with plenty of potential in there. Nonetheless winning this fixture is a different aspiration entirely and could be beyond the Farney county so this match is definitely best left alone. We’d almost suggest backing Cavan, except for the fact that a different selection policy could really change things.

Queens University against Derry however looks like the value bet of the week – 9/4 is simply too big about the college students in a match that genuinely could go either way. Derry manager John Brennan has a balanced squad with youth and experience, however after a good first half in Breffni Park his team allowed a mediocre Cavan team back into the game and could easily have lost the fixture if it wasn’t for a fisted Paddy Bradley goal to stop the rot.

Queens lack a dangerous inside forward and failed to get a score from their starting full forward line against Monaghan, however they are very strong at midfield and in the half forward line and can enjoy plenty of possession against Derry. This has the makings of a very tight game that will go down to the wire and as a result, 9/4 has to be the bet.

The Section A matches are unquestionably the hardest to decipher, with Tyrone and Fermanagh still to make their first appearance of the season. Fermanagh could be under-rated at 11/4 for their match against Donegal in Ballybofey, however there was a lot to like about the spirit in the Donegal camp in their win over Jordanstown and while a three or four point handicap bet might be appealing, the straight match betting is probably best left aside.

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