For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

Any odds compiler will learn very quickly upon entering into the world of GAA trading that at this time of year, a little bit of money can tell a big story. In theory the bookies are out to make money with every event they offer. but in practice January is a time to duck and weave, to dodge the big money and wait until the bigger occasions such as national league and club championship fixtures take place in the spring. This week it’s the Clare hurlers that are the subject of the “plunge” in the betting market, though some readers would be shocked if they saw how little money it might take to move a team from 1/2 into 1/5 in a competition like the Waterford Crystal Cup, as has happened in this case.

On the face of it, Clare make little or no appeal this week. Waterford IT have good form in this competition having beaten Tipperary in last year’s competition and their draw with the Waterford county team a couple of weekends ago suggests that they are moving reasonably well at this time of year. Clare in turn would have a lot of hurlers unavailable due to their own college commitments, and under new management, there would be no reason to believe that they would be ready to hit the ground running. In fact nothing that Clare have done in the hurling world in the last few years suggests that they would be entitled to be such clear favourites here anyway, many of their players still have a lot to prove.

However if we learned nothing else from last night’s desperately disappointing FBD league final, it’s clear we should beware of college teams with bigger fish to fry. NUIG really phoned it in against Mayo, and while it was an improved performance from James Horan’s charges, the game was still rendered lifeless by the half hearted efforts of the students who clearly are much more interested in this week’s battle with St Mary’s teacher training college at Dangan.

This Thursday Waterford IT face a very tricky trip to Cork IT in the first round of the Fitzgibbon Cup and that will of course be their main priority. With that in mind, it’s easy to see why punters are piling into Clare, though one suspects there may have been a bit of an over-reaction at this stage as there is probably some bets being struck that owe more to lemming-like following the money than any real insight.

The match between Galway and UCD seems to be subject to the same behaviour, though in this instance, it’s hard to see why. UCD are in the same Fitzgibbon group as Waterford IT and Cork IT and they have no fixture in that competition this week. As such now would be the perfect time for a really high class challenge match and with home advantage, this column finds it very hard to fathom how punters are backing Galway with such confidence in a game that is exactly what UCD would want right now. After all this is Galway’s first competitive fixture under Anthony Cunningham’s reign and even though the for St Thomas’ player is a dab hand at multitasking in the GAA management world, he still has a lot on his plate, preparing for an All Ireland semi final with Garrycastle. We’d like to know a little bit more about UCD before piling into them, but in this instance the odds of 1/5 about Galway winning at Belfield seem far too short to make any appeal and could come back to haunt some of the lemmings out there.

Finally, we’re back. After what seemed like an interminable few weeks with nothing only closed door challenge games to entertain us, the result of most of which you had to be careful to even talk about, official GAA action is back and ready to go once again, starting tomorrow night in the new GAA centre of excellence in Ballyhaunis with a very attractive FBD league double header.

The main college and county teams of Galway are both in action, and in both instances the bookmakers expect the Galway sides to prevail – though all involved, punters and bookies alike, are well aware that it won’t take much money one way or another to move markets in games like this. Galway are between 4/6 (Hills) and 1/2 (Ladbrokes) to beat Sligo IT in the first game, while there is little disparity in the second match with Hills, Ladbrokes and Powers all going either 11/8 or 6/4 about a win for Sligo over NUIG.

Galway have named a very fresh team for their battle with Sligo IT and while they have deployed some experienced players in the diamond section with Gareth Bradshaw, Paul Conroy and Cormac Bane playing at 6, 9 and 11 respectively, Alan Mulholland is clearly looking to give some of his younger players every opportunity to prove themselves in this competition. They’ll certainly get the chance to do just that against Sligo IT, who were very impressive in the higher education league earlier this year. Last year’s preseason competitions featured plenty of college teams getting off to a very strong start and Sligo IT will feel that they are in with every chance against a Galway side with more than a few raw players. The IT face a huge battle to reach the finals weekend of the Sigerson with UCC standing in their way, but at this level they should be capable of going well.

As outsiders, Sligo the county are given even less of a chance against NUIG, and after losing to the Galway university in this competition last year, it’s understandable that the Yeats county are considered underdogs here. However while NUIG will be fancied to go well in the Sigerson Cup this year, particularly as they will have home advantage for the finals, they often keep a little in reserve for Sigerson competition, and have lost some of their older players from last year. Sligo, unlike Galway, are unlikely to dip too deeply into their panel of reserves, simply because they just don’t have that level of depth to call upon. As any supporter of a smaller county will tell you, selection in such counties is a much simpler process usually because bringing in over a dozen new footballers simply isn’t an option. Last year Sligo’s FBD league side was comprised of almost two thirds championship starters and if they employ a similar tactic here, they should be able to stay close to NUIG. The third level students probably deserve slight favouritism here, but punting them at odds on makes little or no appeal.

FBD League Recommendation:

Galway vs Sligo IT: Sligo IT to win @ 15/8 (Ladbrokes)

Hot on the heels of the first part of our series, now we detail the top half of our hurling power rankings. We left off the first part with one county that had just recruited a local legend to take the reins so now, we resume with another….

7. Clare (8 – Slight improvement)

With a proven manager in charge and a lot of fine young prospects coming into their prime, Clare should be set to move well up the pecking order in the next few years, though Banner supporters will be slightly worried that they haven’t made more ground up by now. Last year in the Fitzgibbon Cup there were ten colleges that were competitive – Clare had 22 starters for these ten colleges, more than any other county, with the exception of Kilkenny. The significance of this is that Fitzgerald can afford to push his team very hard because the depth is there in the county to sustain a few losses. If players like Darach Honan, John Conlon, Caimín Morey and the like start to deliver on their huge potential they will shoot up the rankings and secure some very big wins, but we’ll temper our expectations for the moment and say that a Munster semi final win against Waterford is well within their grasp.

6. Galway (4 – Slight improvement)

Loads of underage talent, a new manager at the helm with a good track record, and a club championship that yet again proved itself to be one of the deepest in the country in terms of talent – you’ll forgive us if we say that we’ve heard it all before. On paper, Galway should be there or thereabouts every year, and yet they’ve only reached the last four once in the last ten championship campaigns. In 2010 they absolved themselves by saying that they should have beaten Tipperary, who went on to win the All Ireland. There can be no such excuse in 2011 after an abject defeat to Waterford, who should have been mentally broken after leaking seven goals in the Munster final. Logic dictates they should improve, but on the other hand, why would 2012 be any different to every other year when they promised greatness only to fall way short?

5. Waterford (6 – Disimprovement)

Time to get off the fence here. This column’s view is that people don’t realise yet what an incredible job David Fitzgerald did with very limited material in Waterford, so subsequently they will struggle to keep up the same standard next year and will probably slip down the order considerably. They may not be overtaken by too many other counties, but they ended 2011 maybe seven or eight points off All Ireland winning standard – expect that to move out to double figures at least. There are some good young hurlers in the county but it’s hard to look at those hurlers under 25 in the county and say that any of them have the making of another Tony Browne, John Mullane or Brick Walsh, all of whom are either retired or nearing that stage. Their first round league meeting with Cork in Páirc Uí Rinn is a massive fixture for them. Relegation to 1B will be difficult to avoid if they don’t win that tie, and their players might not have the mental strength to overcome a setback of that nature.

4. Limerick (7 – Slight disimprovement)

Their bookmaker ranking of seven is a little harsh and is probably more a reflection of the Munster championship draw that pits them against Tipperary in the quarter final. They appeared to turn a corner in 2011 and after comfortably securing promotion, they were narrowly edged out by Waterford in a wonderful Munster final. Their qualifier performances were very solid and they can consider themselves very unlucky to lose out to Dublin in a game where goals were very much the difference between the sides. John Allen will provide a steady hand on the tiller but they need to find a bit more steel in the full back line and possibly a consistent point scorer from play up front, someone who can be depended upon to raise two or three white flags even on a bad day. Right now there is no Limerick forward that meets that description – though several of their younger players could yet grow into that role.

3. Dublin (3 – improvement)

Not unlike Kildare in football, Dublin are in a “don’t look down” situation. They are going hell for leather and continue to take steps forward as a result, but standing still is not an option for them as they will slip right back as soon as they do. The second they take their foot off the accelerator, they will struggle to rediscover their momentum and they need Anthony Daly to keep pushing his players on. He’s not without fuel for the fire however – they proved in 2011 that they can win big games, they showed no fear of Tipperary in the All Ireland semi final and next year’s draw is ideal for them. Tthey can take on Kilkenny early and either secure that elusive championship win over the Cats, or else take their time and rebuild through the qualifiers and use what they learned later in the year. They have youth on their side, and Conal Keaney’s return will change their dynamic completely. Genuine All Ireland contenders in 2012.

2. Tipperary (2 – Slight disimprovement)

Consistently strong throughout the team, but Eoin Kelly continues to slow down and Lar Corbett struggled in the All Ireland final. Being so one-sided at the top level of the game was always likely to cause problems for the Sarsfields man and now that the Cats have figured out how to counteract Tipperary’s pattern of movement up front, Corbett will struggle to get himself into the same goalscoring positions. There are too many good hurlers in the county for Declan Ryan ever to have to field a “weak link” but in contrast to Kilkenny, how many Tipperary hurlers can we say are definitely the number one in Ireland in their position? Michael Cahill, Padraic Maher and Corbett are the only three that stand out and none of those man a central role. It’s a lot more than some other counties have, but you need more than that to usurp this Kilkenny team.

1. Kilkenny (1 – No change)

Yet again, Brian Cody took apart a good team and rebuilt it to become even better. In 2009, Kilkenny won the All Ireland but it was clear that Tipp were gaining ground and in 2010 the Premier men deservedly took the big prize. Last year Kilkenny defied their critics and roared back with an outstanding season and it’s hard to pick holes in any aspect of their setup. For as long as Brian Cody retains his incredible thirst for success and Henry Shefflin continues to compete at his incredibly high level they will be right up there, but next year they will have to be on guard for a challenge from Dublin. They’ve got Tipp figured out for the moment at least, but Dublin could have the fresh approach that might be their undoing. Deserved favourites and the best team in Ireland right now however.

Continuing now with the third part in the series, detailing those counties that will be hoping to make a real breakthrough into the top tier in 2012…..

17. Roscommon (16 – Disimprovement)

Few counties better illustrate the inequity of the current provincial structure than Roscommon, who have reached the last twelve of the All Ireland race for each of the last two seasons despite failing to beat any top twenty county in league or championship along the way. That there is talent in the county cannot be questioned and that’s the only reason why they aren’t ranked even lower, but a few cracks are starting to appear that suggest that some of their brightest hopes from the 2006 minor team simply aren’t progressing as well as many supporters would have hoped. Players like Peter Domican, Senan Kilbride and Cathal Cregg would be welcome into any county team in Ireland, but there will be no handy run to the Connacht final this year and as a result it would be a huge surprise to this column if they were still playing football in August.

16. Limerick (17 – slight disimprovement)

A little bit more luck in the early part of the league would have gone a long way and by the time they found their rhythm in the summer, even without talismanic midfielder John Galvin, they looked like a dangerous force in the qualifiers. The draw was extremely kind to them and not many teams would get to reach an All Ireland quarter final beating only division three sides, but it’s hard to be too critical of a team that only lost to Kerry in the championship. If they can continue to create space for what is a very potent forward line they’ll do well, but their league match against Fermanagh will be particularly revealing as no side under Canavan is likely to allow a lot of space to their direct opponents. Expect Fermanagh to write the script for how to neutralise Limerick in 2012.

15. Laois (15 – no change)

Based on league form, Laois deserve to be ranked much higher than this, but in the championship they’ve made little or no impression for some years now. Manager Justin McNulty looked like he was achieving some good things in the county but the poor state of their domestic championship is a concern and many of their younger prospects aren’t progressing as well as they should. They will almost certainly get relegated from division one but if they can learn from playing at that standard, they might just have enough to come through a treacherous first round championship tie against Longford.

14. Meath (11 – Slight disimprovement)

The wisdom in picking a non-Meath manager to take charge of the Royal County for the first time is being questioned at the moment with Seamus McEnaney yet to win over the footballing public in Meath. Up front the county has no problems with a string of capable attacking players but the absence of Nigel Crawford will be keenly felt this year while all across the midfield and half back line there are concerns. Their reputation is masking quite how many problems there are in Meath football at the moment.

13. Monaghan (13 – disimprovement)

Their shocking qualifier performance in Tullamore last year was either the portent of the start of a long term decline or else one bad day, an anomaly to be ignored. Sadly for Monaghan supporters, this column suspects it could be the former. The Farney men have been one of the most competitive and consistent counties in terms of punching above their weight in the last few years but a lot of that was down to Tommy Freeman’s incisive play up front and while Conor McManus has stepped up to a certain degree, some very average footballers have seen significant playing time under Seamus McEneaney. Their attitude to the game means that they won’t slip too far but if we were to predict one championship upset now, Antrim vs Monaghan in Clones in the first round of the Ulster championship would be our first choice.

12. Wexford (14 – Slight improvement)

After a couple of years of stagnation, Wexford finally found their rhythm in 2011 and were very unlucky both in terms of missing out on promotion and in losing out to Limerick in the fourth round of the qualifiers. Indeed Kerry were probably delighted to see Limerick trip up Wexford because the Slaneysiders could have created a much more interesting All Ireland quarter final if they had advanced to meet the Kingdom. They have an experienced squad that physically are a lot more powerful than they’ve been given credit for and by far they look like the most realistic contender for a Leinster title outside of the big two.

11. Galway (10 – improvement)

If you were to design a scenario where a county should be poised to make huge gains in 2012, you’d struggle to create anything more ideal than the situation out west. You have a very strong club championship, a highly talented bunch of young footballers waiting in the wings, a local manager who has earned respect with his achievements and a group of senior players that must be eager to start accumulating the medals that their talent warrants. The problem is that many of these conditions have been in place previously. Time will tell if Alan Mulholland can unlock the world of potential that lies in Galway football, but if he can’t manage it, there’s little hope for anyone.

10. Armagh (12 – No change)

The depth in Armagh football is not as much of a strength as many outside the county believe, but they have some fine individual talents and players like Aaron Kernan are incredibly good role models for the younger players that are coming in. One or two injuries tend to hit the county very hard but they are not as far off the pace as all that. If Jamie Clarke starts replicating his club form in the Ulster Championship, they could be real dark horses to take provincial honours.

9. Derry (9 – Slight improvement)

Last year was a glorious chance for an Ulster title that went astray and one wonders quite how many such chances will come their way. If we were projecting well into the future we’d struggle to be optimistic for the Derry men but in the short term, 2012 has to be a big year for the county. Injury permitting both Paddy and Eoghan Bradley will be available to manager John Brennan and if he can get the two Glenullin brothers working well within the framework of the team, he’ll have a unit capable of a lot of success.

So, hot on the heels after our initial look at the newly formed betting market for Division 1 of the National Football League, let’s step down the order and take our first look at division two and the counties hoping to earn a shot at the big guns in 2013. Traditionally the second and third tier contests are the most competitive, however 2010 was a little different in that Antrim, Sligo and Meath were very much cut adrift at the bottom, playing noticeably poorer than the other five teams in the division two race. Meath were the county who managed to escape making the drop out of that trio and they will enjoy plenty of local derbies next year with games to come against Kildare, Westmeath, Louth and Monaghan, home county of manager Seamus McEnaney.

At the other end of the table last year it was Laois and Donegal who secured promotion, meaning that league heavyweights Kildare, Derry and Tyrone must spend another year at this level. Boylesports and Ladbrokes both make Tyrone and Kildare joint favourites at 3/1 each, while Hills and Powers both side with the Ulster men at 5/2 and go 7/2 Kildare. Despite the plethora of retirements out of the Tyrone squad that we’ve seen over the last few months, a quick look at the fixture list illustrates why Powers and Hills might be the ones with the right idea here.

Tyrone are down for four home games while Kildare have only three, but in fact this advantage is even more skewed since one of Kildare’s home games is their first round fixture against Tyrone, which has been moved to neutral Croke Park. Kieran McGeeney is likely to spend the earlier part of the season putting his squad through intense physical preparation and they won’t be looking to peak too early, while Mickey Harte is very keen on competing against the best teams in the league and would relish the opportunity to get back up into the top flight. It’s not that his relatively fresh squad will be spared tough training, but he’ll still be chasing every league point on offer. If they can get a result against Kildare in the first round they’ll be hard stopped, while even if they don’t, they’ll have four home games and a trip to Louth still to come, five games where they’ll be favoured to win.

Meath’s away form in the league is too shocking to trust, while Louth and Westmeath simply don’t have the personnel to win five games in this company. Westmeath did play division one football only a couple of years ago however they were badly exposed at that level and while they deserved their promotion from division three last year, neither they nor Louth could argue that they were significantly better than any of the other teams in what was a ridiculously evenly matched division.

The wild card here is Galway. The Galway footballers are beginning to mimic their hurlers in that they’ve enjoyed plenty of underage success, they have a thriving club scene that would rival any county in Ireland, and yet they’ve flattered to deceive when it comes to championship football. This columnist has shown faith in them a few times only to be severely punished for doing so, however lloking at all the factors, we’d still be slow to oppose them next year. Whether that’s a fair opinion or failing to learn from our mistakes remains to be seen. The appointment of Alan Mulholland is a nice change of pace after two years of different outside managers and they certainly can’t argue with a schedule that gave them four home games and brings their three main rivals in the betting – Tyrone, Kildare and Meath – west of the Shannon to either Tuam or Pearse Stadium.

Memories of previous bad bets will be a tough barrier for this columnist to overcome before we recommend them again, however they are well worth watching with interest in preseason competition.

Monaghan and Derry were also only given three home games, but the Oak Leaf men won’t be too worried about making the short spin down the A505 towards Healy Park and they’ll also be confident that if they put themselves in a position where they need a result in Mullingar in the last round to secure promotion, that’s well within their grasp. Paddy Power are biggest at 7/1 Derry and they will surely see plenty of interest in a county that has played some of their best football in the league in recent years. Here at Starbets we’d like to be a lot more certain of how close to full strength they’ll be before getting stuck in, but it’s the kind of price that is well worth putting in the “maybe” column, to be re-examined in January.

Navan 5:05 – Silver Shuffle- e/w 9/1 bet365 and Priors Gold – e/w 12/1 bet365

Two against the field in this ultra competitive contest.

It might be no harm to be able to stay a bit further than the official distance of ten furlongs in this big field contest run in testing conditions. With that in mind Silver Shuffle could well have solid prospects with his ability to stay twelve furlongs a definite plus. With 26 runners in the race, it is feasible to expect a good gallop and with the stiff uphill finish at Navan, there wil be no hiding place for non stayers. Jimmy Coogan’s charge was an impressive winner in soft ground at the Curragh last season and has ran some decent races since. He finished mid division in strong Leopardstown handicap towards the end of 2010 and produced a fair effort when staying on from of the pace behind handicap blot Minsk at the Curragh last time. Silver has been ridden by an apprentice on all his starts this season and given that he is a horse who responds top as bit of pushing, this may not have been ideal. The employment of a professional in Declan McDonagh today looks a significant boost to his chances and these connections struck with a simalar profile of horse in Winning Impact at Roscommon last week.

I will have an interest also on Priors Gold. Gordon Elliot’s charge is better over hurdles and has not really set the world alight yet in any of his flat outings , but he remains well handicapped on the level and the nature of this race might suit better. His form behind Golan Go at Ballinrobe and Much Acclaimed at Galway is just average, but whereas most of his rivals today are going up the handicap, this fellow is slipping down the weights. A more end to end gallop type of contest is probably what the son of Sakhee wants and we can hope for this type of scenario in this big field today. As with Silver Shuffle, his ability to stay further than ten furlongs could be an asset at the business end and he might step up on recent flat performances.

Nottingham 4:30 – McBirney e/w 9/1 Sporting Bet

Landaman jumps off the page here on his handicap debut and could easily win but the value seeker in me sways me towards McBirney. Paul D’arcy’s gelding has competed well in a few decent handicaps throughout the season and has had valid excuses for two recent below par efforts. His second to the Ithoughitwasover at Newmarket represents the best individual piece of handicap form in the race and he was not disgraced either when seventh in an ultra competitive handicap at York behind Crackentorp. He subsequently went wrong at Newmarket and was ridden by an inexperienced apprentice and running over an inadequate one mile when down the field again at Headquarters last time. Whether he can beat the progressive types at the top of the market is questionable ,but at three times their odds, he could be worth the chance.

UK Tips

Navan 5:05 – Silver Shuffle e/w 9/1 bet365 & Priors Gold – e/w 12/1 bet365
Nottingham 4:30 – McBirney e/w 9/1 Sporting Bet

For the third weekend in succession, Galway and Dublin are set to play in a crucial underage clash, this time competing in a second All Ireland hurling final. Last weekend Dublin’s minor hurlers were the favourites according to the bookmaking community, even though the form from both teams up to that point suggested that the other way around would have been more appropriate. This week the same situation appears to have occurred, albeit in reverse, with Galway favoured but looking vulnerable.

This week bet365 are 10/13 Galway, 9/1 Draw and 5/4 Dublin, while offering both teams at even money on the handicap betting market, where the Dubs are receiving a one point head start.

As is customary at this level, there is very little form on the table with which to assess both teams, in particular in the case of Galway. Their win over Limerick was an excellent performance, however Limerick never reached the same standard as they hit against Cork and several of their key, big name, senior players had a real off day. Of course some of the credit for this outcome must go to the Galway back line, but even so it would be foolish to get carried away with Galway’s win simply on the basis that they beat the team who won that wonderful Munster Final against Cork.

Indeed Limerick weren’t well fancied for this year’s Munster championship and while they won it fair and square, Cork or Tipperary would possibly have offered a bigger threat to Galway at the semi final stage.

Dublin were highly rated all year too, however getting to an All Ireland final by beating Offaly, Wexford and Antrim means that questions will also be asked of your form in the absence of a bigger scalp – even though that was a good Wexford team with the match taking place on away soil in Wexford Park. Crucially, many of their senior stars have now had time to settle down and reintegrate themselves into this under-21 group, and there looks to be a lot less chance of their misfiring, as Limerick did.

One thing that Limerick did expose was Galway’s vulnerability to pace from the half forward line, and Dublin will bring that quality to the table in spades. Daire Plunkett, Niall McMorrow and Liam Rushe are all capable of taking on the ball from a midfield or half forward position and driving at the opposition defence, and they’ll have seen how Limerick did make inroads by taking up this very tactic.

Dublin plus one point at even money looks to be the shrewd bet this week, while in a game with two strong full back lines and not a lot of inside scoring power, bet365 also look out of line with even money about less than 2.5 goals. Both these bets look like real odds on shots, and should offer real value this weekend.

Croke Park will be the focus of Irish sports fans this weekend as Kilkenny and Tipperary clash in the All-Ireland Hurling Final. Before they do battle for the Liam McCarthy Cup, the Minors of Dublin and Galway meet in what promises to be a thrilling game.

En-route to the final both teams have recorded big wins with Dublin scoring 6-19 against Waterford in the semi-final and Galway scoring 8-26 against Antrim in the quarter-final.

As a result bookmakers are expecting another high scoring game on Sunday between the Dubs and the Tribesmen. Paddy Power predict that the game will finish with 43 points shared between the two sides. However looking closer at the match, the bookies may have slightly over-reacted to the scoring prowess of both sides.

The highest scoring Minor Hurling Final of the last 10 years was in 2003 when Kilkenny & Galway shared 43 points. Most games tend to finish in the mid thirties.

Dublin conceded 5-13 to Waterford in their semi-final so they will have certainly worked on improving their defence since last month. Equally the Dubs are unlikely to find the Galway backs as generous as the Deise.

Given the big occasion there are sure to be a lot of nerves for the U-18’s of both counties so expect a relatively tight affair.

Paddy Power offer 11/10 about 42 or less points being scored and all factors considered this is probably the best bet of Sunday’s action at Croke Park.

The Weekend Banker – 42 or less points in the All-Ireland MHC Final @ 11/10. €10 will return €21.

The ups and downs of the antepost market for any minor championship are always interesting to watch, but this year’s betting for the All Ireland minor hurling championship has been particularly entertaining. Kilkenny started the year hotly fancied after St Kieran’s nicked the All Ireland colleges title against Ard Scoil Rís, with Tipperary also highly rated. Clare came into the reckoning very soon after a strong run through Munster, while after drifting throughout the early summer, Galway shortened up when they were drawn against the Ulster champions in the All Ireland quarter final.

It got even more interesting from semi-final stage onwards. Galway recovered from a bad start to overcome Clare after extra time and went as short as 4/11 outright with some bookmakers for the following week, while the market turned yet again after Dublin lacerated through Waterford’s defences repeatedly and racked up 6-19. Bet365 are now 4/5 Dublin, 6/5 Galway and 17/2 the draw for this most unpredictable of championship finals.

Assessing Dublin is very much dependent on which of their games is taken as their true form. They were the most impressive team in an unimpressive Leinster championship, and while they took on the three best counties in the province that stood against them and won, they never did so with a flourish. They always looked defensively sound, and conceding 3-10, 2-7 and 1-11 en route to an All Ireland hurling semi final usually suggests a rudimentary amount of defensive solidity at least. However at the other end they never scored more than one goal in any game, and let Kilkenny stay in a Leinster final where they were always second best, a dangerous ploy for any team, as the students of the aforementioned Ard Scoil Ris will attest.

Essentially, it’s hard to escape the view that while Dublin are probably improving, as we would expect from any minor team, their swashbuckling display against Waterford was most likely the exception rather than the norm. Take away some of those goals and they might not have had the confidence to take their subsequent scores as easily.

Assessing Galway is a much trickier task entirely, since their disembowelling of Antrim in the All Ireland quarter final is hardly the kind of form that could be studied in detail. Thus their semi final win over Clare becomes all-important, and the most notable aspect to that win was how Mattie Murphy’s side improved once they began to get a bit closer to their best fifteen.

Galway’s “bye” straight into the business end of the championship was undoubtedly a help in putting together a lot of their underage success in recent years, but equally it cannot be ignored that it leaves a lot less margin for error in team selection. Against the side who were by far the most impressive minor team in the championship up to that point, Galway looked assured and impressive by the end, and Murphy should have his team optimised even further for Sunday’s clash.

Of course it would be nicer if there was more form to go on, and nobody could rule out that Galway’s performance against Clare was no different to Dublin’s against Waterford – going above their usual standard. However based on the hurling that we’ve seen so far, Galway look like the team with a little bit more upside this Sunday.

Now add into the mix the fact that Emmet Ó’Conghaíle, Jack McCaffrey, Ciarán Kilkenny and Cormac Costello will be starting for the hurlers having played an All Ireland football semi final last weekend, and thus won’t have trained with the hurlers for the couple of weeks before last Sunday, and the impetus seems to move even more towards Galway. The ability to hurl together and to get to know each other better is all important at this level, all the more so in a county like Dublin where players won’t socialise together and in many cases may not even get to hurl against each other too often. Having a group of four starters who miss out on half your training is certainly not ideal.

Dublin look solid certainly, but solid doesn’t win you All Ireland titles without a decent helping of class to accompany it. They may have it, but the Tribesmen look the more stylish group. 6/5 Galway to win and 10/11 about Galway plus one point look like good bets this week for the minor decider.

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