As we discussed in our column earlier today, the provincial football championships all begin in earnest this weekend, with five teams poised to exit the race for their respective provincial titles on Sunday, barring draws. The Sunday Game cameras will travel to Dr Hyde Park in Roscommon to take in the meeting of the Rossies and Galway in the Connacht quarter final, however there are good betting opportunities all across Ireland, starting at Navan, where Westmeath look well poised to break a run of defeats against Louth.

Westmeath vs Louth

Louth manager Peter Fitzpatrick probably wishes he could play Westmeath every week. In four games against the Lake County, he has guided Louth to four wins, three in the league and one in the 2010 Leinster championship.  Louth also won the last meeting between these two counties before Fitzpatrick took over – a 1-12 to 0-7 victory in the 2007 National League – but previously this was actually a fixture that Westmeath dominated, with seven wins in succession between 2001 and 2006. This column’s suspicion is that the tide could be turning back in Westmeath’s favour, after the Lazarus act that saved their place in Division 2.

Both sides are entitled to be very proud of their achievements in salvaging Division 2 status – both counties were odds on to make the drop – but Westmeath should be a little bit stronger on Sunday than they were in the league, while key absentees from the Louth team should leave them a weaker side than they were in the Spring. John Gaffey, Doran Harte and James Dolan are all selected to start on Sunday having spent most of the Spring playing football in the green and red of Garrycastle instead of the maroon colours of Westmeath, while Eoin O’Connor, Eamon McAuley and Shane Lennon all miss out due to injury on the Louth side.

As if that weren’t enough, Brian White, Brian Donnelly, James Califf and Cathal Bellew have all decided to emigrate to the US for the summer, while regular full back Dessie Finnegan will miss the game as he will be on his honeymoon. Needless to say not all of the eight players listed above would start, but if they were all available, they would possibly fill as many as four of the spinal positions on the team. Louth simply don’t have the depth to justify favouritism with so many gaps in central positions and so Westmeath represent great value.

Longford vs Laois

This is a fascinating game on so many levels. Longford are brimming with confidence, they will play in front of a home crowd, they play a wonderful fast, attacking brand of football and they are looking forward with enthusiasm to this Leinster campaign and in particular the chance to settle a score with Laois, after they came so close to beating them last year. Laois in contrast are riddled with self-doubt, struggling to find form and unsure of their identity. However while both these teams will play division 2 football in 2013, there were two divisions between them this year and this is still the same Laois team that beat both Armagh and Donegal and gave Dublin a tough contest.

For all the reasons listed above, Longford are a very “lovable” county at the moment. They’re the type of plucky underdog that neutrals love, but that can sometimes lead to fundamental flaws being overlooked. For example they are not strong ball winners at midfield, and the swashbuckling, attacking style of their forward division can sometimes leave the defence exposed. However Laois haven’t improved from Spring to Summer for a while now and they aren’t worthy of trust at odds on.

What we can believe in is the likelihood of a high scoring game, Longford’s very way of playing ensures it. Last year Laois played very defensive football but that didn’t really work out for them and Justin McNulty has reverted to a more attacking style this year. Boylesports have pitched their total points mark at 27.5 – on a good playing surface like Pearse Park and in front of a partisan home crowd, we’re confident that number will be surpassed.

Cavan vs Donegal

This is one of those predictions that more experienced GAA pundits don’t usually make, because it can come back to haunt you in the white heat of championship. However we’re going to go ahead and do it anyway, even if it does risk making us look foolish. Donegal should win this with plenty to spare.

Cavan should experience a certain bounce under Terry Hyland and they have some good young footballers to call upon, but they are a world away from where Donegal are in their preparations right now. One of these teams is an All Ireland contender, the other is a team that would be playing division 4 football in 2013 but for the fact that they miraculously found two teams worse than them this year in the third tier. Donegal’s defensive style is the only thing that has this handicap so low, and frankly if it were a six point handicap instead of a three, this columnist would still fancy Donegal to cover, that’s how bad Cavan are.

Limerick vs Waterford

Waterford haven’t beaten anyone other than Clare in the Munster football championship in nearly a quarter of a century.

We give that line a paragraph all to itself so we can allow the magnitude of that statement to sink in. No matter what issues Limerick may have had this year, they still should be better than Waterford, who continue to struggle. If this game were taking place in Fraher Field we might have some belief in the possibility of an upset, but even allowing for the somewhat uncharacteristically free scoring 1-18 to 1-14 win for Waterford when these two counties met in the league, we’d prefer to go for a lower stakes, higher return bet this week than backing the underdogs, who look to be up against it.

So we’re going to pick two players for a first goalscorer bet. First we’ll go with Mark Ferncombe, who scored four goals for Waterford in the league while no other player raised more than a single green flag, and we’re also going to side with Seamus O’Carroll for Limerick. The big full forward is one of the players who should relish the opportunity to go for balls dropping into the square and while he’s been praised highly for his achievements playing handball in recent weeks, he’s also a very accomplished footballer and one who will be a real threat to the Waterford goal this Sunday.

Roscommon vs Galway

If Roscommon manager Des Newton can go into championship battle without feeling the need to start a single member of an under-21 panel that reached the All Ireland final, then clearly he believes that either (a) Roscommon have serious strength in depth, or (b) the under-21′s weren’t that good after all. As with all things, it’s probably a little bit of both.

Galway football this year has given the impression of being very, very close to hitting the mark. Alan Mulholland has imposed a style and pattern to the county’s play and eliminated a lot of the individuality that plagued the Tribesmen in recent years. He now has a young, strong panel who are working hard for each other and if Michael Meehan is in fact close to making a return as is rumoured, then this could yet turn out to be a good summer for Galway. The problem is that they have always shown a genuine disinterest in the qualifiers and in order to avoid that minefield, they need to get out of Dr Hyde Park intact. This could prove tricky, and while this column remains of the view that there are parallels between Roscommon football and the emporor with no clothes, there’s nothing to be gained by punting the Galway at 8/15. Instead, we’ll again play the square ball rule change and side with another big full forward to net the first goal – in this case Paul Conroy of St James and Galway.

Match Betting Recommendations

Louth vs Westmeath: Westmeath to win @ 5/4 (Bet365, Skybet)

Longford vs Laois: Over 27.5 total points @ 5/6 (Boylesports)

Cavan vs Donegal: Donegal -3pts @ 5/6 (Boylesports, Bet365)

Limerick vs Waterford: Seamus O’Carroll @ 7/1 and Mark Ferncombe @ 8/1 to score the first goal. (Ladbrokes)

Roscommon vs Galway: Paul Conroy to score the first goal @ 7/1 (general)

It’s a peculiar league system where one of the six teams play two games less than four of the five others, but that’s exactly how it panned out in division 1A this year. Waterford ended their campaign a lot earlier than Kilkenny and Cork, who played out a surprisingly one sided final last Sunday in Semple Stadium, while Dublin and Galway at least had the benefit of a high class pair of fixtures to decide who made the drop to Division 1B. As a result some teams are better exposed than others, but based on what we’ve seen, here’s the Starbets rundown on the leading contenders for the All Ireland title and how their league performances grade in our estimation.

Kilkenny – A

Sunday’s performance brought about a spectacular upgrade since the Cats had been a bit hit and miss up to this point, but their demolition job on a decent Cork team has seen their odds plummet to a best price of 4/5 in the market, which is nearly as short as they’ve ever been at this time of year. The injury to Michael Fennelly is another concern for Brian Cody hot on the heels of injuries to Richie Power, Michael Rice and the long term absence of Henry Shefflin, but their best performance of the Spring came with all of these key men absent, while supposedly “fringe” players like Paddy Hogan, Richie Doyle, TJ Reid, Cillian Buckley and Colin Fennelly came up trumps.

Our view here at Starbets is that 4/5 is a bit short – after all there is every chance that if Kilkenny are to win the All Ireland, they’ll have to go through all four of the other five counties rated as the main contenders in the betting – but right now, they’re in as good a place as Brian Cody could hope for and so they’d have to get an A grade.

Cork – C

So much of the league went so well for Jimmy Barry Murphy’s men, but unlike Kilkenny, injuries are not as easily dealt with down by the Lee. Dónal Óg Cusack is arguably the most influential goalkeeper ever to wield a camán and Martin Coleman turned out to be a poor replacement last Sunday. More importantly, several of their frontline starters were badly exposed and while some of that could be put down to a bad day, the result calls into question a lot of what was achieved during the regular season. Waterford were clearly in bad shape when the two counties met in the first round, and the visit of Kilkenny to Páirc Uí Chaoimh is clearly to be taken with a pinch of salt now too. Take all that away and there’s not much left.

Tipperary – D

A D grade may seem harsh for a team that finished third in the league, but aside from a comprehensive dismissal of a poor Waterford team, Tipperary never got going in this campaign and if they are genuinely second favourites for the All Ireland title, then they clearly have been keeping a lot in reserve. Frankly, this league campaign defies further analysis – Tipperary played with experimental teams throughout, few of their less proven players made a real impact but the real test will only come in the Munster championship when they are all hands on deck again.

Waterford – D

Waterford displayed an immaculate sense of timing in this league campaign, producing one good performance when they needed it most in Galway, before beating Dublin at home when Anthony Daly’s men had nothing to play for. Staying in Division 1A is a huge boost to the county but they proved how far off the pace they are in their games against the traditional powers and clearly are still hugely dependent on Eoin Kelly and John Mullane if they are to contend for a Munster title. The news that Pauric Mahony is now set to miss the entire summer is a huge blow and realistically Waterford are not so much hiding in the long grass as much as they are hiding in the Amazonian rain forest right now.

Galway – B

It was a Spring of ups and downs for the Tribesmen, who started well against Dublin, put in two very solid performances against Tipperary and Cork before ending the regular season with two disastrous outings against Waterford and Kilkenny. However the relegation battles with Dublin were the making of their season and now Anthony Cunningham is entitled to feel reasonably optimistic about the prospects of success for his young panel. Joe Canning’s form remains critical to their cause – his second half display in Tullamore is the only reason Galway didn’t go down to Division 1B – but as is by now customary for this time of year, Galway seem to be in a very good place.

Dublin – D

Dublin hurled well this Spring and can feel somewhat unfortunate to have gone down after playing well in basically every match, other than week one against Galway and their dead rubber game against Waterford. Nonetheless this league campaign also highlighted the limitations in the Dublin attack and the deficiencies that need to be addressed before taking on Kilkenny in the championship. Conal Keaney remains their star man and all this league campaign did is prove how badly he is needed. Elsewhere they are well able to win ball and their working of possession up the field is good, but with the exception of one freak day against Kilkenny, they never scored more than 23 points during the Spring. In modern hurling when the average winning total in the championship is 24 points, that simply won’t do.

Kilkenny, Cork and Clare all still have two months to go before getting their championship seasons underway, so Sunday’s league semi final double header is of huge importance to all of them as the managers look to get more competitive games under their belts. Dublin and Galway also played out an incredibly competitive game last week in O’Connor Park and they now must renew hostilities in O’Moore Park in Portlaoise, with the spectre of relegation looming large for both counties, meaning that nearly all the main hurling counties are in action this week.

Dublin vs Galway

Ryan O’Dwyer and Alan McCrabbe both miss out due to suspension but after using 23 players in the drawn game, Anthony Daly clearly has faith in every member of his squad. Both sides will look back on the draw with tinges of regret. Dublin will feel disappointed that after rebuffing the first Galway comeback with Ross O’Carroll’s goal, they couldn’t hold on in normal time, while Galway in particular will look back and wonder how they managed to lose a two point lead with two extra men in the second period of extra time.

Joe Canning’s return to form was also big news for the Galway men and they are obviously a completely different force when the Portumna forward is ensconced in the team.

Nonetheless Dublin hold the upper hand here psychologically and must surely be hopeful that they will get more out their forward line the next day. The starting Dublin forward line contributed only four scores from play last week and surely most be hopeful of a greatly improved performance in Portlaoise. Add in the psychological impact of Galway having thrown away the stronger position, no more suprise element from Joe Canning lining out, and the even money about a Dublin win starts to look very attractive.

Kilkenny vs Clare

Kilkenny have been devastating at times and unspectacular at others during this league run, but if they produce another performance along the lines of what they did against Galway, they’ll win this and with plenty to spare. However Clare have performed much more consistently throughout the league, albeit against a lower level of opposition, and the logical handicap play here is probably siding with them to stay close. David Fitzgerald continues to have the Midas touch in the management game and the calm resolution that his players showed to dig deep and produce a win in the Division 1B decider against Limerick was extremely impressive.

Cillian Buckley’s eye-catching debut for the Cats gives Brian Cody another option and it also frees up Michael Rice to move back to the half forward line, where his mobility lets him come on to support full forward line players in possession quite regularly. Boylesports are 20/1 about Rice getting the first goal in this game and since there is a slight sense of uneasiness associated with betting against Kilkenny even with a large handicap, that’s our recommendation here.

Tipperary vs Cork

It speaks volumes about what Jimmy Barry Murphy has achieved in his short tenure as Cork manager that his team are only one point underdogs for a National League semi-final against Tipperary at Semple Stadium. This Spring the Cork team have been balanced, settled and have produced some fine performances, not least when inflicting Kilkenny’s only defeat in the league campaign.

Tipperary, by contrast, have been all over the place and still look to be in experimentation mode. Only seven of the team that started the 2011 All Ireland final are named to start on Sunday, with only Michael Cahill, Conor O’Mahony and Noel McGrath holding their positions from that game. They are at home and the two sides played out an excellent 1-23 apiece draw in the final round of the round robin stages of the league, but Cork need this league title a lot more than Tipperary do and they probably deserve to be considered joint favourites here. Ladbrokes are 10/11 about Cork plus a two point head start and in a game that should be quite tight, that advantage could be critical.

Weekend NHL Recommendations

Dublin vs Galway: Dublin to win @ 1/1 (generally available)

Kilkenny vs Clare: Michael Rice to score the first goal @ 20/1 (Boylesports)

Tipperary vs Cork: Cork +2pts @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes)

The somewhat ceremonial final between Kildare and Tyrone is still down for decision, but for the rest of the second division of the National Football League, the next competitive game will be championship fare. Following on from our division one assessments, Here’s the Starbets grades on how the eight counties performed in the league this past few months.

Tyrone – A

Honestly, if we could put a gold star onto this grade, we would. Despite peripheral roles from a lot of the older players, Tyrone have been impeccable throughout this league campaign, playing football with great pace and intensity while still giving playing time to plenty of their younger footballers. The one accusation levelled at Mickey Harte in recent years that was probably a little justified is that he was too slow to realise when some of his loyal servants were past their best and no longer worthy of a place in the first fifteen. This year we’ve finally started to see the best of players like Kyle Coney and Peter Harte and the team has benefitted.

All that said, they’ve still got a very tough run through Ulster in prospect. We’re certainly impressed by what they’ve done so far, but that doesn’t automatically imply that they are a great bet for provincial success, at least not at prices shorter than 2/1.

Kildare – B

Whatever problems there are in the short grass county, on the field of play everything is rosy. Their late escape act to come away from Pearse Stadium with a draw proved their character, while they’ve made a mockery of their supposed “need” for a corner forward like Seanie Johnston by scoring more than any other team bar Wexford in the top three divisions. RTE’s decision to take their Leinster quarter-final meeting with Offaly off the air for fear of offending sensitive viewers says it all about where they are right now.

Galway – C

Their disappointing results against Louth and Westmeath came back to haunt them in terms of promotion, but right now division 2 is not a bad place to be for Galway. They still have a lot of rebuilding to do and staying a little bit below the radar is no harm. Defensively they remain quite strong and the forward line now has balance, but the fact that Padraig Joyce is still the standout performer when he’s on the field is a little bit worrying. Without a genuine blue chip attacker, the worry has to be that there is a bit of a glass ceiling in place for them. That said, after the disarray of the past couple of years, this was a solid Spring showing.

Louth – C

For Louth, this league was all about the nine point win in Navan that relegated the Royal County. Everything else that happened during the campaign was merely a preamble to that fixture. However while they performed well, Westmeath’s resurrection is a cause of concern for the championship since the two sides will meet once again next month. Defensively, Peter Fitzpatrick still has a lot to do and there would be concerns in the county that some of their more experienced forwards might not be as effective on the faster ground. They’ve done well, but it’s difficult to see significant further improvement by the summer.

Westmeath – B

Pat Flanagan has performed miracles here extracting Westmeath out of the relegation mire and saving their place in division two. Without any of the Garrycastle players, without several others due to emigration and injury, he masterminded three wins to secure a mid table finish. Now, unexpectedly, there is a great sense of optimism in the county. Denis Glennon looks to be back to his best up front and if John Heslin performs, he can be hugely effective. Right now they’ve got a lot of momentum and they could even be dark horses to give the Dubs a few nervous moments in Croke Park, provided they get through the challenge of Louth in Navan

Derry – D

They could have had few complaints if they were relegated since they never looked on form throughout the league campaign, with the exception of their six point win over Monaghan. None of the forwards have stepped up to support Paddy Bradley and while he’ll obviously get a lot more help this summer from brother Eoin who is almost back to full fitness, no new players established themselves by playing consistently well throughout the campaign. Right now they look like very poor value for the Ulster championship.

Meath – F

Where do you begin? On the field of play, they actually had a few good outings. They started well against Monaghan, they were clinical in the way they put Westmeath to the sword and they produced a great performance against Kildare which could have resulted in a victory, or maybe even a draw. However since then it’s been all downhill, resulting in the current unseemly public squabbling that is unworthy of a county of their stature. It’s clear that Banty has lost the dressing room, but sending Seán Boylan in would be no help. Boylan is one of the greats of the game but his time has come and gone and the biggest point in his favour is that no county board officer could be criticised for giving him the job. They’d be better off losing to Wicklow, because unless something very strange happens, Kildare will obliterate them in a Leinster semi-final.

Monaghan – E

Their tempestuous win over Kildare should have galvanised the team but instead they limped through the rest of the season, passing up great chances to make their division two status secure. They should have done much better in Mullingar, they coughed up a five point lead against Galway and they played Tyrone when the league leaders had nothing to play for. The prospect of re-introducing players like Dessie Mone, Conor McManus and Tommy Freeman for the championship will keep supporters energised and certainly the Ulster championship draw has been very kind, but right now it’s the Paul Finlay show with nothing by way of a support act. That’s just not good enough.

Earlier today we recommended a bet on Mayo on grounds that probably wouldn’t best please followers of the green above the red – that Kerry mightn’t be that motivated for a game against James Horan’s team. We were also fully ready to recommend a bet on the Galway hurlers, based on grounds that wouldn’t best please the Tribesmen. However teams have been named and things have changed….

Dublin vs Galway

Both these counties will feel a little aggrieved that despite hurling quite well for most of the season, they ended up in the drop zone while a well timed late run by Waterford saved the Déise’s bacon. However they are where they are now and neither manager will want to lose Sunday’s battle in O’Connor Park and play Division 1B hurling in 2013. Traditionally Galway are at their strongest in April and that was why we were poised to suggest that they were a good value bet at odds against, but then the teams were released, Paul Ryan was named to start in the Dublin attack and Joe Canning’s continued absence was confirmed, so needless to say this affected our view.

Anthony Daly won’t thank Conor Hayes for his outburst this week suggesting that Galway are being badly managed, which will surely motivate the Galway troops to a certain degree. There was a fair degree of truth in what Hayes said – Anthony Cunningham is far from certain of his best team and players are being tried in very different positions. Nonetheless, we are forced to ask – when was it ever any different out in Galway?

It’s all very well to think back on the halcyon days of the 1980′s when the Galway team picked itself, but the problem with an endless production line of capable young hurlers is that it becomes very hard to know which of the 60-100 candidates for county panel slots are the better players. However this has been the case for a long time with Galway and yet they are still a division 1A team and always rated as one of the top four or five teams in Ireland.

Last year these two sides met in the championship in Tullamore and Galway were 1/2 or shorter with a lot of the bookies. The pendulum has swung, possibly too far, but then that was a Galway team with Canning, this one isn’t. Our instinct is still to side with Galway, but not enough to recommend a bet. Instead, we’re going to look at the total points market.

After a high scoring few weeks in early March, the bookies have pulled in the reins on their totals markets but they’ve possibly gone too far here, pitching the line in the high thirties. Dublin are a quite strong team defensively but O’Connor Park is a high scoring field generally and Powers offer of 11/10 about 40 or more as a total is a very appealing bet.

Laois vs Wexford

The arrival of Teddy McCarthy to the O’Moore County was supposed to usher in a new era of competitiveness in Laois hurling, one where the undoubted talent in the county was harnessed. It all started very well and the Walsh Cup victory over Dublin suggested that things were on the up, but after a decent start against Offaly in the league, Mick McEvoy got a red card, Offaly ran up a large score and the wheels duly fell off. Since then Laois have really struggled to even rediscover their Walsh Cup form and their failure to defend a ten point lead against Antrim has seen rumours of backbiting and discontent resurface.

Neither side tried too hard last week but Wexford still won with plenty to spare and while Liam Dunne has his own problems in the South East, they will win this and should cover the spread as well.

Carlow vs Westmeath

Carlow had a slight edge when these two sides met in the round robin series and Westmeath appear to be trying to level the score with all sorts of rumour mongering regarding which players will and won’t be fit to hurl in Nowlan Park this Sunday. Eoin Price takes his place at centre back despite being tipped to miss out, while Brendan Murtagh, Paddy Dowdall and Adam Price are all named as substitutes this week. Now if these lads actually aren’t fit, then Carlow are a great bet at 4/6 – the idea that a county with a small pick like Westmeath wouldn’t be affected by the loss of three of their best players is ludicrous. So stand by for at least one of the three to make a “miraculous” recovery in time for the start, and one more to be sprung off the bench after twenty minutes or so. It’ll make no difference, and if anything will only discommode and confuse the team. Carlow are hurling that bit better at the moment and they deserve to be favourites here, regardless of the gamesmanship from the Lake county.

NHL Playoff Recommendations

Dublin vs Galway: 40 or more points @ 11/10 (Powers)

Laois vs Wexford: Wexford -8 @ 11/10 (Powers)

Carlow vs Westmeath: Carlow @ 4/6 (Betpack, Stan James, BetVictor)

Unlike the top flight, the lower divisions of the National Football League are littered with contests where there is little or nothing at stake for the competing teams this weekend. Plenty of sides have no reason to look either up or down the table, and while that can often lead to betting opportunities, it’s a dangerous game to play. For that reason, we’re going to start with the most competitive game of them all, the Division Two promotion decider at Pearse Stadium.

Galway vs Kildare

Two good golden rules to follow in the betting game are, never trust Galway at odds on against a weaker opponent, but always respect their ability to produce a very high quality game when you least expect it. A one point haul from their games against Louth and Westmeath seemed to condemn them to another mid table finish at best, but good wins over Monaghan and Meath have salvaged their season and suddenly they face a one off game with promotion on the table for the winner.

However for Galway, the timing could not be worse since the Lilies are on an incredible run of form at the moment, scoring 7-69 in their last four games. Since Galway have yet to score nineteen times in a game this year, never mind average nineteen scores over a run of four games, it’s safe to say that a huge defensive performance will be required if the Tribesmen are to prevail on Sunday.

Kildare’s pursuit of Seanie Johnston continues unabated, but honestly it’s hard to see why he’s needed. They’ve found their rhythm now and while we don’t like opposing Galway at odds on, we’ll instead take Kildare to cover an alternative handicap at a big price. Galway might pull off a shock here, but anything less than their best and they could be on the end of a heavy defeat.

Meath vs Louth

Under normal circumstances, these teams would be cursing their luck as relegation rivals Monaghan got the benefit of playing Tyrone when the Red Hand men were already qualified, but Mickey Harte would be very slow to harm the integrity of the competition so chances are that Tyrone will go for the win and get it, so Meath will probably be safe from relegation regardless of how they go in this fixture. Nonetheless this match has the potential to be quite spiky since there is plenty of feeling left over from the famous Leinster final of 2010, and Louth didn’t exactly make a good effort at redeeming their pride in last year’s qualifier fixture.

The Wee County are actually playing quite well at the moment without necessarily getting the results  their football deserves. While their under-21 players were outclassed on Wednesday night, there are one or two individuals in that panel who are ready to make a meaningful contribution at senior level. Meath too have played some reasonable football in recent weeks but Seán Boylan’s resignation from his “Director of Football” role is very worrying. If Louth can get over their traditional hang up when it comes to playing Meath – admittedly that’s a big if – they look like the value here with the head start.

Cavan vs Antrim

It’s been a real season of two halves for Antrim, who started the league in great form but have now lost three games in a row and would surely be worrying about the drop if the season was only a game or two longer. Cavan haven’t exactly pulled up any trees at any level but they have been moderately competitive throughout the year and their under-21 footballers are certainly leading the way in the county.

Antrim manager Liam Bradley made it clear how seriously – or not – he was taking the fixture when he named a team that went very deep into his panel. Some of these youngsters have a point to prove, but Cavan have a season to save, and they should be capable of doing just that, backboned by their under-21s who continue to go from strength to strength.

NFL Lower Division Recommendations

Galway vs Kildare: Kildare -5pts @ 3/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Louth: Louth +2pts @ 11/10 (general)

Cavan vs Antrim: Cavan @ 5/6 (Stan James/Betpack)

The new structure for the National hurling league may have it’s detractors, but with only one dead rubber in the final round of league games in division 1A and 1B, supporters can at least look forward to a competitive final round of games. We’ll start our rundown of the top six in Semple Stadium, where Tipperary and Cork will be hurling to guarantee their place in the semi finals.

Tipperary vs Cork

Cork stepped up to a new level last weekend when they defied our predictions here on Starbets and handed Kilkenny their first defeat since last year’s National Hurling League final. The absence of Tommy Walsh and Henry Shefflin from the Kilkenny line up leaves a slight asterisk attached but already it’s clear that Jimmy Barry Murphy has worked wonders down south.

By contrast, Tipperary supporters remain unconvinced about their season so far. Home wins over Waterford and Galway mean that they look well poised to progress to the knockout stages but with the exception of the Waterford match, their attacking play has lacked conviction and they’ve failed to find the net in three of their four games so far. Whatever about being favourites for the match, they certainly shouldn’t be favourites to score the first goal and that’s the basis for our betting this week. Cork have scored eight goals in two games and with a balanced, settled forward line, they are well capable of raising the first green flag of the match.

Kilkenny vs Galway

Galway have a good record against Kilkenny in league games and now that the Tribesmen are playing for their survival, they should be highly motivated to produce a big performance in Nowlan Park. However Kilkenny’s defeat to Cork in the last round will undoubtedly sharpen hunger among Brian Cody’s players too, so Galway could be meeting the Cats at just the wrong time.

Bet365 and Ladbrokes certainly think so and they are each offering 1/5 about Kilkenny. If Richie Power gets a reprieve from his suspension tonight, that price makes some sense. If he doesn’t, then there is no way Galway are 4/1 shots to beat a Kilkenny team shorn of their top scorer. The best policy here is to take the 4/1 now, then trade out at the 1/3 (Boylesports) and 12/1 draw for a tiny loss if it turns out that Power is freed to start.

Waterford vs Dublin

Dublin supporters are entitled to feel a little bit hard done by in that they’ve hurled quite well in three of their four games so far and yet find themselves locked into a relegation playoff. By contrast, Waterford were woeful in three of their four games, but they produced a two point win against Galway last week and thus can save themselves with a win in front of their own supporters in Dungarvan, provided of course that Kilkenny beat Galway.

Logic dictates that Dublin are operating at a higher level on a consistent basis, but hunger is a huge driver in a game like this and with John Mullane now available for selection, the pieces are starting to slot into place for Waterford. Bet365 are 11/10 about Waterford with a one point start and since the last three Dublin games have all been decided by a point or less, it’s worth taking that extra bit of insurance.

NHL Division 1A Recommendations

Tipperary vs Cork: Cork to score the first goal @ 21/20 (Ladbrokes)

Kilkenny vs Galway: Galway @ 4/1 (Bet365, Ladbrokes) N.B. Trade out if Richie Power’s appeal is successful.

Waterford vs Dublin: Waterford +1pt @ 11/10 (Bet365)

Strange though it may sound, for some counties this weekend will be their second last competitive game before the championship gets underway in the summer. Whatever your views about the restructuring of the national hurling league, that in itself is something that probably needs to be addressed. However this column’s remit is not the welfare of the GAA but picking some winners. We’ll start our search at Páirc Uí Chaoimh.

Cork vs Kilkenny

Cork’s revival under Jimmy Barry Murphy hit a stumbling block last weekend when Galway came away from Páirc Uí Chaoimh with both points. Suddenly the Rebels are faced with having to take at least one win out of their last two league games against Kilkenny and Tipperary in order to reach the semi finals of the league and a bright start has lost a lot of sheen. Up front the team has found a nice balance and the pace of Cathal Naughton and Conor Lehane on the wings has added a new dimension to the team’s hurling. However student Darren Sweetnam and Lorcan McLoughlin are very inexperienced to be taking on Michael Rice and Michael Fennelly at midfield and there is a danger that Cork could get overwhelmed both here and at half back. Brian Cody takes great satisfaction in victories over the poster children for “player power” and while this could be another high scoring encounter with Cork scoring well themselves, we’ll take the Cats to prevail and cover the spread.

Dublin vs Tipperary

Dublin have actually hurled well for two weeks now but haven’t gotten any rewards and this was going to be our strongest tip of the week – before it was reported that Paul Ryan will almost certainly miss the fixture due to injury. Dublin’s corner forward is a crucial source of points and while he’s out, and David O’Callaghan is still performing some way below his best in the other corner, it’s impossible to back the Dubs with confidence. No recommendation here.

Galway vs Waterford

Nicky Cashin’s decision to step aside as selector at a time when things aren’t going that well for the Déise suggests that cracks may be appearing in the set up. The county board are also reportedly unhappy with the very large squad that’s being carried at the moment and this week they make the long trek to Pearse Stadium to play Galway, who are beginning to find their rhythm. The return of John Mullane and Eoin Kelly to the panel is a boost from the point of view of Waterford’s summer prospectss, but neither man is likely to be ready to start this week and all their presence on the bench will do is cause more nerves among the starters, who know that the management will have itchy fingers waiting to spring their big name players.

After more very pleasant weather in Galway, the pitch in Salthill is in good shape and the breeze is actually quite calm – these conditions suggest good scoring, and there is a real danger Galway could go to town on Waterford here.

Limerick vs Offaly

Shane Dowling returns to the Limerick starting line up for tomorrow night’s crucial battle between these two promotion hopefuls in division 1B but in truth it’s not the Limerick forward division that needed help, it’s their porous back line. Similarly Offaly have been scoring well but they conceded 18 scores to each of Antrim and Laois, suggesting that they too need work at tightening things up at the back. This should be a high scoring tie under lights at the Gaelic Grounds, and we’d be slow to presume that the favourites should prevail, since Offaly have won the last three competitive matches between these two sides. Paddy Power go 7/4 about a winning margin of between five and nine points, while they’re 10/11 about four or less. Only one of the nine games in this division so far, and 17 out of 47 games in the NHL as a whole, have fallen into that bracket. Take the 7/4, either side has the potential to win this well.

Antrim vs Laois

Antrim are still likely to be missing their Loughgiel players, but they are hurling quite well without their Shamrocks’ contingent and they should have too much for the midlanders at home. Nonetheless we don’t like trusting Antrim at odds on, so this is another game we’ll skip over.

Clare vs Wexford

It’s looking now like Wexford’s late comeback win over Offaly simply papered over the cracks in the Model county. David Fitzgerald has his side moving really well and they can secure their place in the Division 1b final with a win here. They should get it, and cover the handicap too.

NHL Round 4 Recommendations

Cork vs Kilkenny: Kilkenny -3pts @ 10/11 (Boylesports)

Galway vs Waterford: Galway by 13-15 pts @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

Limerick vs Offaly: Winning margin of 5-9 pts @ 7/4 (Powers)

Clare vs Wexford: Clare -4pts @ 5/6 (Hills, Bet365)

The action continues to come thick and fast in the National Football League, with the big Munster Derby at Páirc Uí Chaoimh taking centre stage as the main attraiction. So, we’ll start our tour of the country by the Lee and look at the battle of the big guns down south.

Cork vs Kerry

You can have odds against about both teams here, with William Hill going after the Rebels and laying 5/4, while Ladbrokes take the opposite view and go 11/10 about a Kerry win in the Páirc. On form so far, Kerry look more likely to take the points. They had a poor outing in round 2 against Armagh but otherwise they’ve been consistently excellent and have all but secured their place in the semi-final lineup already. Cork look quite strong for this tie however with Pearse O’Neill back in the team and Donncha O’Connor and Colm O’Neill showing some potency up front. They found some form against Laois last time out and looked a lot more like themselves. Neither manager will want to give too much away here, so at the risk of getting splinters in our groin from sitting on the fence, this looks certain to be a tight game with little between them. Ladbrokes “Close Call” bet pays out if either side win’s by three or less, or if the game is drawn. 8/13 may look short but it would have paid out the last six times these teams faced each other – good enough for us.

Galway vs Tyrone

Backing Galway at odds on to win football matches is clearly not a good policy, but neither can the Tribesmen be written off when taking on better quality opponents. They dug deep to produce a big win over Meath last week and remain in contention for a promotion place, though they cannot afford to drop any more points this Sunday. Tyrone have been imperious in the league so far with a string of good results but Ladbrokes may be overdoing things by offering 9/4 about the home side. Galway are too good to be 9/4 in a league match against any division 2 opponent at home and while they are too inconsistent to be trusted at short prices – there is a reason we’re not taking the head start on the handicap – they can deliver big returns if you catch them on the right day.

Cavan vs Offaly

This Offaly columnist takes no joy in saying this, but the Offaly football setup is a mess right now and confidence could not be lower in the camp. The new management regime headed by Gerry Cooney has failed utterly to catch the imagination of the players and there appears to be no clear plan as to how the team can create scores. The blanket defensive system isn’t fitting in while up front, small forwards like Nigel Dunne and Bernard Allen, though on form, are isolated against bigger opponents. They’ve been shocking throughout the league and there is no reason why tomorrow would be any different.

Clare vs Leitrim

Clare have made a very solid start to division four this year, and while they dropped points in Enniskillen, wins over Carlow, Limerick and Waterford have set them up to make a real push for that elusive promotion spot. Leitrim have been their usual dogged selves and they got the rub of the green against Carlow when a contentious goal from forward Ray Cox was allowed despite a strong whiff of a square ball offence. Against a more freescoring side like Wicklow or Fermanagh, the Leitrim men could be a little bit short of firepower to go toe to toe, but Clare’s 1-17 against Waterford the first day out was largely down to the absence of the two O’Gorman brothers. Since then they’ve reverted to type and posted a dozen scores per game. You can get 11/10 about Leitrim with a two point start and while those couple of points are expensive, with Hills offering 12/5 about a straight win, it’s well worth it to keep them on your side and give yourself that extra safety net.

NFL Round 5 Recommendations

Cork vs Kerry: “A Close Call” @ 8/13 (Ladbrokes)

Galway vs Tyrone: Galway @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes)

Cavan vs Offaly: Cavan -2 pts @ 10/11 (Stan James/Betpack)

Clare vs Leitrim: Leitrim +2 pts @ 11/10 (Bet365, Hills)

The big Leinster clash in division two of the Allianz League catches the eye of the TV cameras this week as Setanta Sports head to Navan for tonight’s battle between Kildare and Meath at Páirc Tailteann. Kildare enjoyed a comprehensive win over the Royal County in last year’s Leinster football championship, but Seamus McEnaney has enjoyed a good start to this year’s league campaign with wins over Monaghan and Westmeath, while Kildare are languishing at the bottom of the table without a win so far. Elsewhere, Galway travel to Westmeath, Monaghan play Derry in a crunch all-Ulster tie and Tyrone travel to Louth in a game where two unbeaten sides play for a place in the promotion places.

Meath vs Kildare

We know Kildare will start to improve at some stage, but the question is when? Kieran McGeeney’s men enjoyed a similarly slow start to last year’s league campaign but they’ve left themselves under real pressure now and a reverse here in this fixture would make relegation a real possibility. A county with real designs on provincial and All Ireland success can ill afford to be playing football in division three – unless your province is Connacht – and logic dictates that sheer need will push them over the line here. Still, Meath have a great home record in the league and the shrewd betting play could be backing the green flags to stay rooted, with neither inside line looking good at the moment.

Derry vs Monaghan

At the start of the season Derry were considered among the front runners for promotion, while Monaghan were widely regarded as the most likely county to get sucked in if Westmeath or Louth somehow escaped the drop zone. In the first week of competition Derry slipped up against a dangerous Galway team and Monaghan lost to Meath. Fast forward to week two and Derry get hammered by Tyrone (could happen to anyone) while Monaghan win a physical battle with Kildare, and somehow Derry are now 10/11 at home? The betting here is a gross over-reaction to one week of play and at Celtic Park, Derry are well worthy of support.

Louth vs Tyrone

On the basis of their form so far, Tyrone are entitled to be surging up the betting for the All Ireland, never mind the national football league. The Red Hand County have been devastating against both Kildare and Derry, though Louth too will be happy with their haul of three points from games against Westmeath and Galway. The Wee men re-introduce Michael Fanning who has returned from Australia and he slots into the centre back berth, with Jamie Carr returning to corner back, bolstering the full back line. Louth’s optimism will be lifted even further by the news that Monaghan now have to travel to Drogheda, further enhancing their promotion prospects. Louth are not to be opposed lightly right now, much less at home with a three point start.

Westmeath vs Galway

Logic and reason dictates that when you can bet on a home team in a league match with a six point start, you absolutely should do so. Hills go 5/6 about Westmeath plus six points here and after Galway scored a mere nine times against Louth in their previous outing, they don’t look like good bets to clear a large spread.

The issue however is that Westmeath are simply woeful at the moment and supporters are much more interested in their under-21 footballers and the fortunes of Garrycastle than in the county senior team, of whom very little is expected. John Heslin walks straight back into the team after returning from Australia and he’ll add plenty of power to the midfield sector, but right now things aren’t going well for the Lake County and the best way to bet this game is to take a big price about Galway really going to town. Things are coming to a head soon in the midlands, and it’s hard to see Pat Flanagan turning things around in the meantime.

NFL Division 2 Recommendations

Meath vs Kildare: No Goalscorer @ 4/1 (Powers, Hills, Ladbrokes)

Derry vs Monaghan: Derry to win @ 10/11 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

Westmeath vs Galway: Galway to win by 10-12 points @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

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