It’s the age old conundrum in betting – a proven championship contender, with solid and dependable form at the grade in question, up against a newcomer from a reliable stable with some high class performances at a much lower level under their belts.Will it be the old dog for the hard road, or has the pretender got the talent to deliver a high class performance against a much tougher opponent than anything they’ve faced so far this year?

After a gruelling campaign to get through Dublin and a string of high class performances in Leinster, it’s no secret that St Brigids will bring a lot of high class footballing ability to O’Connor Park on Sunday afternoon. Their goalkeeper is one of the finest in the country with an ability to produce match winning saves, their defensive unit has been generally consistent and proved their worth when keeping a highly rated Kilmacud Crokes forward line to a mere eight points, and up front they have a good spread of scorers with at least four forwards capable of delivering three scores or more from play on any given day. Above all, they have an intercounty standard midfield with ball winning potential and box to box energy in equal measure.

Already St Brigids have beaten Crokes, St Oliver Plunketts and Portlaoise – three clubs all a significant cut above anything that Garrycastle had to deal with so far. Nonetheless this is Garrycastle under Anthony Cunningham who is a shrewd operator at the best of times, and for some of these players this will be their sixth foray into Leinster competition. Wins over Longford Slashers and Athy might not catch the eye in the same way that St Brigids did in taking out Portlaoise over eighty minutes, but the manner of both victories was very assured and it proved that this Garrycastle team are clearly well focussed on the job at hand this year. They too must be respected and they look for all the world like they have a bit more to show now that they really need to dig deep and produce the goods.

For the sake of both their county and their club, this success is long overdue. This will be the fifth time that a Westmeath club has competed in the Leinster senior club football final and the county is still waiting on their first ever success. Garrycastle as a club have enjoyed a long period of dominance at underage and then senior level in the Lake County and after coming into existence in 1981, the East Athlone side have gone from strength to strength. It took them twenty years to finally make the breakthrough at senior level but since then it’s been an incredible run of success with six of the last eleven Westmeath senior championships going to the club.

Now that club stalwarts like Dessie Dolan and David O’Shaughnessy are nearing the end of their careers, this Sunday’s final could represent one last chance for them to get a Leinster club medal to go with the Leinster county medals that they won under Páidí Ó’Sé in 2004. They will be hard pressed to contain the St Brigids forward line, but it would seem foolish to dismiss their chances out of hand since they are the type of team that could concede thirteen or fourteen scores and still win. Hills, Ladbrokes and Boyles all go 1/2 St Brigids to win the match while Stan James/Betpack are the bookmaker of choice for Garrycastle backers at 5/2. Many will side with prices of 4/1 or 9/2 about Garrycastle to win by the 1-3pt margin, however our narrow preference would be to stick with the match betting. While on paper it may look like a comfortable win for the Westmeath club is unlikely, O’Connor Park is a deceptively big pitch, with the same dimensions as Croke Park, and high scoring games are quite common there.

In a game where both forward lines are capable of scoring and the Garrycastle lineup is capable of getting goals, a slightly bigger margin is far from inconceivable and could be well worthy of consideration for value seekers.

In the spirit of “Cometh the Hour, Cometh the Man”, it’s notable that it was Dessie Dolan who stepped up and delivered the crucial goal for his team against Athy. He has generally lined out at centre forward this year but it would be a huge surprise if Anthony Cunningham left him there to take on the marauding Seán Murray. It would do Garrycastle no favours to have their talismanic leader spend most of the game chasing back towards his own goal. Expect them to place Dolan in the full forward line, closer to goal, and to leave either a more physical or a more mobile player on Murray at the heart of the attack.

Leinster Club SFC Final Tips

St Brigids vs Garrycastle: Garrycastle @ 5/2 (Stan James/Betpack)

Winning Margin: Garrycastle by 4-6pts @ 11/1 (Powers)

First Goalscorer: Dessie Dolan @ 9/1 (Hills)

Unlike the race for the All Ireland club hurling championship, the winner of the Andy Merrigan cup next March will almost certainly be a heavyweight player on the club football scene. Five clubs remain in contention, one of which is representing the most successful club of all time in Gaelic Games, while St Brigids (Ros) and Dr Crokes have a good track record inside their province. Even the two remaining Leinster sides have oodles of intercounty talent and plenty of history competing well with some good teams, even if they haven’t achieved quite as much.

One obvious indication of the huge contrast is this – back in August, when these markets were first priced up by William Hill, none of the four clubs still in contention for the All Ireland hurling prize would have been less that 66/1. Only St Brigids of Dublin would have been close to that price for football honours, and that because they had such a tough road to travel coming out of the Dublin championship. Indeed Dr Crokes, St Brigids of Roscommon and Crossmaglen would have been in the two five or six clubs all along.

While all three of these teams have put provincial titles on the mantelpiece this past month, only Crossmaglen can truly say that they are playing at an elite level. The reigning All Ireland champions have cut a dash through a very tough provincial draw, taking out three top quality opponents in St Galls, Ballinderry and Burren. For Crokes and Brigids, only Mid Kerry and Corofin can compare in terms of the calibre of of opponent – and those victories owed a lot to soft goals and the refereeing of Liam Devanney respectively.

Right now Crossmaglen are playing at a level that is at least two or three points better than any of their rivals, suggesting that they should be no bigger than 2/5 outright in a semi-final or final against any of the remaining teams. Colm Cooper is undoubtedly an x-factor, while the Dublin champions are gathering momentum at a great rate, but none of these teams have the all round cohesion and efficiency of the South Armagh men, and if any forward in Ireland is close to the level of Colm Cooper right now in terms of both form and productivity, it’s Jamie Clarke.

Paddy Powers and Ladbrokes are both 5/4 about Crossmaglen outright at the moment and while that price would be on the fringe of correctness if we knew for sure that St Brigids of Dublin would be waiting in the final and playing well, it’s a one way bet right now because an All Ireland semi final win for the Rossies would indicate an outright price of even money now, while a final appearance for Garrycastle – probably a 6/1 shot right now – would suggest that 4/5 would be more appropriate. There is no circumstance, barring an outbreak of bubonic plague in the Armagh parish, that would see Crossmaglen’s outright prices to win the semi-final and final multiply out bigger than 5/4.

William Hill and Stan James are both ducking the Ulster champions right now and it’s hard to argue with their logic. Certainly for anyone out there with no existing position in the competition, the 5/4 is a very attractive price and one that should be added to your portfolio immediately.

After a somewhat inexplicable break for a week, the Leinster club football championship resumes this weekend with two hugely intriguing battles, one between potential All Ireland contenders and one between two clubs hoping to sneak into the Leinster final from the weaker side of the draw and maybe have a good day at the right time. We’ll look at the high profile battle between Portlaoise and St Brigids later in the week, but for now let’s take a look at the midlandds battle between Athy and Garrycastle, throwing in on Sunday in Newbridge.

Garrycastle were never longer than 6/4 to win the Westmeath championship at any time this year and after enjoying several good days in Leinster competition but still failing to get over the line, they know that they must be running out of chances to finally become the first ever club from the Lake County to win a Leinster senior club championship. While they’ve provided their fair share of players to Westmeath underage teams in recent years, they haven’t brought along any young players that look capable of replacing players like David O’Shaughnessy and Dessie Dolan, who must surely be running out of years of playing at senior club level. This year’s draw represented a golden opportunity to finally get over that line and now that the carrot of a local derby with St Brigids of Roscommon is on the table for the All Ireland semi-final, the sense of excitement in the club couldn’t be higher.

Of course motivation alone won’t bring about a battle between Dolan cousins, but while we might not be so optimistic at the Leinster final stage, for this week Off the Ground is happy to get behind the Athlone club at the 8/11 on offer from Powers. Paddy Power are a little bit out of line with this price as the other frontline bookmakers are all offering between 8/13 and 8/15 about a Garrycastle win and that extra return for our money is sufficient to warrant a bet. While Athy are a sharp, up and coming team with two good wins behind them, this is a huge step up in class and even in the familiar surroundings of St Conleth’s Park in Newbridge, Garrycastle should have the nous to pull themselves through this tie. Longford Slashers offered no threat and were clearly way off the boil after two months without a competitive tie, however a final tally of 4-11 still suggests that Garrycastle were in a good place and capable of taking advantage of a vulnerable opponent. Athy’s win over Old Leighlin was similarly impressive, but a more capable Edenderry team took them to the wire in the first round and illustrated that a defensive alignment, as Garrycastle are likely to bring, can cause frustration.

Oisín McConville sent a clear reminder last week that there is no substitute for experience and know how, just as Frankie Dolan did the week before, and on wet winter pitches when the younger players are dragged down to the slower pace of the older guys, they usually find themselves edged out by their cuter, wilier counterparts. Players like Tony Gibbons and Kevin Feely look to have a very bright future but Sunday could be a steep learning curve – when odds on first goalscorer are released later in the week, look for good prices on Dessie Dolan and in particular Paddy Mulvihill, who may still be in his twenties but has bagged a lot of crucial scores for his club and could be a real thorn in the side of the Athy defence this week.

Athy vs Garrycastle Tips:

Match Betting: Garrycastle @ 8/11 (Powers)

First Goalscorer: Paddy Mulvihill, if greater than 7/1 (any)

For those who might happen to be watching Garrycastle vs Portlaoise on TG4, currently standing at 0-7 to 0-3 at half time, the betting in running prices appear to offer a touch of value for those who can move quickly. The wind advantage blowing down O’Connor Park is very strong, and a four point lead is perhaps not even “level par” for the degree of advantage that is involved.

Factor in the red card to Peter McNulty, which will hit Portlaoise on two levels (leaving them a man down, and costing them an excellent runner who would play a big role into the wind) and this is a game where Garrycastle are in with every chance.

Portlaoise’s experience could potentially see them hold on and sneak over the line, but at 6/5, Garrycastle plus three points is worth punting. We won’t put it on the record since most people won’t get to read this in time, but if you do, then getting on is well advised.

Fewer games than might have been expected fell by the wayside last weekend, with three of the five games that had been arranged playing out to a conclusion. The Connacht decider was unsurprisingly called off relatively early, while in Portlaoise, referee Joe Curley was left with little choice but to bring matters to a premature conclusion when he saw the conditions that prevailed at the start of the second half.

Indeed for those who follow this blog and its recommendations, the Meath official’s decision was extremely welcome. Portlaoise had played with the advantage of a stiff but tricky breeze in the first half, and Clara were definitely the happier team going in at half time level pegging. Stephen Deehan’s point at the start of the second half was taken with the kind of relaxed kicking stroke that simply wasn’t an option in the first half, and with Thomas Deehan also playing extremely well in the inside line, Clara were definitely odds on to progress had the match played to a natural conclusion.

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After several costly near misses last week, when we opposed Tullamore, Newtownshandrum and Kilcoo and failed to get paid on a single one despite none of these clubs succeeding in covering their spread, it would be understandable to feel like pulling the reins in a little bit this weekend. Looking at the five games down for decision, that sentiment is even harder to quash, with most of the prices looking reasonably accurate and the value bets looking more than a little elusive.

Nonetheless, while going in all guns blazing in order to make up a deficit would be the wrong course of action, there are still some selections worthy of a second look this weekend.

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As we discussed last week, provincial and All Ireland club honours are very hard to win at the best of times, and usually impossible to secure if clubs don’t serve an apprenticeship of sorts. In almost every instance, teams need to by win their club championship on a couple of occasions and learn the art of inter-county club competition before any silverware comes their way. In an All Ireland context, that still leaves plenty of contenders at this time of year, but at provincial level, there can be some excellent betting opportunities as a result, with many candidates simply not viable winners.

There are some caveats to this rule to be borne in mind all the same. De la Salle came from nowhere last year, but the important point was that their first game was against a similarly inexperienced outfit, and their narrow win over Sarsfields suddenly left them in a Munster decider. If a new team can get a run going, then they can often cause a shock, but without that launching pad, they have little or no hope.

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