As a result Man City and Man Utd are locked in battle at the top of the Premier League and bet365 are now 9/1 about the title being decided by goal difference and 6/4 that Roberto Mancini finishes 2011/12 empty handed.

Since the start of December Man City have kissed goodbye to the Champions League, FA Cup and Carling Cup – the pressure is now on in the Premier League title race after Tuesday night.

That may yet be turn out to be the case, but some ten months later it’s remarkable how one defeat in the Munster Championship has led to such an overhaul of the team most considered to be the number one contenders for the ultimate hurling accolade. Among the more eye catching decisions for Sunday are Shane McGrath’s move to centre forward, David Young moving to midfield after a man of the match performance at wing back in their previous match, and the absence of Seamus Callinan, who was one of the most exciting prospects in the game last year.

Callinan’s form has dipped severely in this championship and his exclusion was possibly merited, but Shane McGrath’s move into Calllinan’s regular haunt at centre forward will probably have caught the Offaly management by surprise. McGrath is not a ball-winning or spoiling centre forward and it’s unlikely that Brendan Cummins will send too many puck outs down on top of the Ballinahinch player, but his pace is likely to cause Offaly some real problems from that position. David Kenny and Paul Cleary have alternated between the full back and centre back roles this year and while both men offer plenty of fielding ability and stopping power, the speed of McGrath at centre forward and indeed Corbett at full forward is likely to create a mismatch when it comes to low ball.

Liam Sheedy will of course have noticed how Damien Hayes gave Offaly huge problems when he lined out at full forward in the replayed Leinster semi final and there is no doubt that Corbett in particular will be hoping for a similarly lucrative haul this Sunday.

Looking at the betting for this tie, the eight point handicap is possibly a little generous to Tipperary when one considers how much surgery has been performed on their team and how the Offaly unit is comparitively settled, however cognisance must be paid to Tipperary’s reputation as a county that likes to pound on the agony once a game is won. There is no danger that this Tipp team will fall asleep and let a lead lapse in the same manner as Galway did in either of their games against the Faithful, however Offaly will be hopeful that they can keep the scoreboard ticking over at the other end and prevent Tipperary from getting too far in front in the first place, thus leaving themselves within striking distance at the business end of proceedings.

Portlaoise is a familiar venue for this Offaly team and Cathal Parlon’s performance last week has offered them another attacking option, so there is plenty of reason to believe that this can be a high scoring encounter where Offaly do stay in touch.

Wexford scored nineteen times against this Tipperary backline and on that basis, Offaly can at least match that tally, however crucially, Wexford failed to breach Brendan Cummins’ net at any stage. Cork did succeed in scoring three goals in the Munster quarter final, however that was as much down to the unique threat posed by Aisake Ó’hAilpín as anything else. Offaly might find it difficult to get in for goals, but at 8/13, Tipperary to score at least two goals looks like a solid bet and worth a 2pt stake. Offaly have just found it too difficult to keep goals out this year and while the Tipperary team has been reshaped, they have created enough potential problems for Offaly that it is highly unlikely that one or two forwards don’t enjoy a very good day.

Viewers of the championship action on RTE last Sunday would have been somewhat underwhelmed by the fare on offer, but assuming referee Derek Fahy can resist the urge to spoil the game with constant whistling for “illegal” handpasses, this could very well be an extremely enjoyable game from a viewing perspective. Both sides bring a fine set of attackers into the fray, and if the two management teams can resist the urge to counteract this by packing the defence, we could be in for a lot of scores. Even if Niall McNamee fails to make the starting Offaly fifteen, as is possible, there are plenty of scores in players like Ken Casey, Niall Darby, John Reynolds and others, while the Meath attacking unit is packed with quality. The absence of quality attackers like Jamie Queeney, David Bray and Brian Sheridan would severely impact on the chances of most counties, but the Royal county are still set to start with six excellent forwards.

Despite all this, goals have been very hard to come by for this Meath team. In their last nine games, six league matches and three challenge fixtures, they’ve scored two goals. They’ve scored plenty of points in that time, but the absence of pace in their attack means that they haven’t managed to take defenders out of the game and get enough clear looks on goal. Looking at the match ups against Offaly this weekend, they may have a size advantage in a few positions so it’s likely to be a direct approach from the Meathmen, but one that could run aground closer to the danger area with Scott Brady minding the house for Offaly.

Offaly scored nine goals in their league campaign and they’ll know that hitting the net at least once will be crucial in Portlaoise – possibly even twice. That might be a bridge too far, but they can accumulate a decent tally. This column’s suspicion is that they’ll do enough to at least stay within the three point spread, despite the widely held view that this could be an uncompetitive tie, but the safer bet could be over 29.5 total points at 4/5. 3pts at these odds is the recommended stake.

Ladbrokes are also offering betting on which team will register the highest tally this weekend, and while Offaly are intriguing at 11/1 for the reasons mentioned above, the best bet could be Louth at 4/1. Louth and Longford are two teams that have always played basic, traditional man on man football and both teams have plenty of good forwards who can score. Equally, neither team is over-endowed with man marking defenders and this could turn into a shootout very easily. Longford at 8/1 are not a bad selection either, but Louth are still a better team and they must be fancying their chances, particularly with Brian Kavanagh out and Paul Barden also doubtful. A 1pt bet on Louth to be the top scoring team at 4/1 is well worth consideration here.

Austin Stack Park in Tralee is one venue which has traditionally held up reasonably well in the face of adverse weather conditions, but unless the predicted rain for tomorrow fails to materialise, even that match could come under pressure. Having said all that, if the games do take place, then there may be a little bit of value in the goals markets that have been priced up.

Assuming that any games which do go ahead do so in very inclement conditions, it’s reasonably safe to say that there is unlikely to be any high scoring encounters. That said, wet and mucky conditions lead to considerably less points being scored, but the number of goals is not always affected in the same way. While the slower movement of the ball can take a toll in that it becomes much more difficult to hit teams on the break and create match ups with corner forwards going one on one with their markers, while heavy ground tends to suit the backsman anyway, different chances can come about from players making mistakes, struggling to catch or control high deliveries. The number of good goals scored is likely to be quite low, but that doesn’t always equate to a drop in the number of goals of any type.

With regard to using this information, the game that stands out by a mile is the meeting of Portlaoise and Clara, and the 10/11 available about more than 1.5 goals in this encounter. Portlaoise’s scoring statistics this season have been phenomenal and their attack is functioning exceptionally well, but equally a lot of Clara’s strength lies in their full forward line and they too could cause problems. Clara’s most recent win over Rathvilly broke a five game streak in which they scored at least one goal in every game, and while Portlaoise are an exceptional team, they are by no means exceptional at keeping out good goalscorers.

This is a game where both sides are more than likely going to get in for at least one goal, and at 10/11, the statistics definitely favour getting behind two or more goals in this match. A 2pt bet is recommended.

Now all we need is to finally get around to putting a roof over this country. It’s the infrastructure project that we’ve all been waiting for.

Waterford on the other hand have been really struggling to ignite and if anything they have taken over from Galway and become hurling’s main one man show, with John Mullane making a legitimate case for a hurler of the year award amidst a team which has otherwise been lethargic and disappointing. Nonetheless it should not be forgotten that they have been trained all year to peak around now and they also secured a few huge wins last season when, it could be argued, their form was no better than it is at the moment. 9/4 looks to be a huge price about a team that has not lost to Galway in their last seven championship meetings, though it must be said that most of those games are a part of history rather than form. If Waterford do get their act together they could cause Galway a lot of problems, but unfortunately that looks like a big “if”.

Ollie Canning is still one of the best corner backs in Ireland and if he can even break even with Mullane, as I expect him to, Galway should win this well. Waterford may surprise us, but it’s always best to bet based on what’s likely rather than what’s possible. Galway minus three points is a great bet at 5/6 and well worth a 4pt stake.

Of course the absence of Shane Kavanagh is a blow, but Galway have put more solid form on the table in the past two weeks than they previously managed in about five years. Even if Waterford do put it up to them, they could still cover this handicap, and Off the Ground suspects that this one could be out the door by half time – in which case the opportunity may present itself for an in-running bet to try and land a middle.

The Limerick vs Dublin game is an altogether trickier fixture to get a handle on, but the gut feeling is that the bookmakers are still not giving Dublin credit for what they’ve achieved. They deserve to be favourites here, but serious question marks remain about whether they can go toe to toe with a team like Limerick and beat them rather than just drop and extra man back and hang in, as they did against Kilkenny. Nonetheless Limerick have been very disappointing this year and Dublin are possibly a bit of value, just not enough to recommend a bet.

The best bet in this game could be a speculative 1pt wager on under 1.5 goals at 3/1. Both of these teams have scored an anaemic two goals in three games so far, but equally both sides have been defensively competitive. Dublin conceded two goals to Kilkenny and one to Wexford after a clean sheet against Antrim, while Limerick have yet to concede a goal in three outings. With a low scoring encounter likely, neither side is likely to have to specifically chase goals and with that in mind, it would be very easy to see this bet offering real value, much more so than siding with either team in what should be a close encounter, and possibly one with something in it for draw backers.

Another aspect of this tradition is their long history of getting crucial, timely and quality goals. This Meath team have scored goals when they’ve needed to, they’ve scored goals in order to bury teams out of sight and they’ve had some of the great goalscorers of the game line out in their colours.

Colm O’Rourke, Bernard Flynn, Graham Geraghty and Ollie Murphy are four names who would be in contention if one were to have a contest for the greatest goalscorer of the last twenty five years and it’s fair to say that no county has had such an obvious wealth of outstanding inside forwards in that time.

This of course leads us to our key point – if you have a reputation for getting up early, you can stay in bed all day. So it is with this Meath team – people fear them, but ultimately it’s for no good reason other than what Meath teams and players in the past have achieved. People expect them to score goals, but the truth is that this Meath team aren’t scoring goals. Joe Sheridan, Stephen Bray and Cian Ward are all fine forwards who pose a threat to any opponent, however their strike rate in the league was shocking and there is no obvious reason why that should change dramatically on Sunday.

In seven games in this year’s league campaign Meath scored two goals – one against Laois in an awful night for football and one against Kildare in a 2-9 to 1-12 draw. Granted Dublin were far from prolific with the green flags either, save for their rout of Westmeath, but that was against Division one defences and with a couple of their key players absent due to commitments with Kilmacud Crokes.

Dublin should win this game either way and they represent a good bet at the match odds of 1/2, however if they are to lose this game, it will most likely be because they started to wobble towards the end and their psychological weaknesses came into play. It is highly likely that they will start better than Meath and it is also very likely that they will be the first team to score a goal. 4/5 about Dublin to score the first goal is a very fair price and is worth a 2pt bet.

Sticking with the goals markets, under 1.5 goals in the Clare vs Limerick match looks a little overpriced as well at even money, as it’s difficult to see either of these teams scoring freely. This is likely to be a very hard fought local derby with any forward having the temerity to bear down on goal likely to pay for his sins. Having said that, both sides have had weak performances in their full back line so while a low scoring game is highly likely, that still does not preclude a 1-7 to 1-5 thriller. On those grounds we will stop short of recommending a bet here despite the gut feeling that the price is a touch generous, instead holding fire until a total points market may become available closer to the time and looking to play low on this instead.

Of course there are those who will undoubtedly point to the great record of teams from the province over the past decade, or indeed the huge appeal of the games up there, but none of that takes away from the fact that the style of play up there has long past the point of being competitive and is now comprised of 30% cynicism, 30% skill, 30% physical power and 10% brutality. Games in Ulster are the one reason why the yellow card system had some merit, although watching the games up there, one sometimes wonders if referees simply ignore half the rules that still exist within the Clár Oifigiúil and simply wait for the wafting scent of blood to hit their nostrils before they decide that some sort of sanction may be called upon.

The clash between Fermanagh and Down some ten days ago did little to redeem the province, so it now falls to the two flagship teams, Tyrone and Armagh, to prove that there’s more to football up there than wallops and whistles. (Let’s be clear here, before any Northern readers get offended – Off the Ground is not suggesting that Ulster teams can’t play football – they have proven without doubt that they can, the problem is that when they meet each other, they often choose not to. The rapier gets returned to the scabbard while the broadsword is invariably brought into play)

Tyrone’s narrow win over Westmeath in this year’s NFL was a remarkable game for several reasons, but one reason why it stood out will probably have escaped the notice of most people. The game finished with Tyrone winning by two points, 1-15 to 2-10, and it was the only one of the fourteen NFL games featuring either Armagh or Tyrone this spring where the two teams involved didn’t finish on the same number of goals. Indeed seven of the thirteen games where the sides did finish on the same number of goals, that number was one we have become very accustomed to seeing in modern football where goals are concerned – zero.

These two sides simply don’t do goalfests and with the elimination of the yellow card system meaning that both teams will resume old habits of pulling down any player who gets within a sniff of the opposition goal, that trend is unlikely to change in Clones on Sunday. Normally this would mean that we would advise a bet on the over/under goals market, but in this instance we can get an extra 1% of value (and if this column teaches nothing else, it’s that 1% is always worth taking where possible!) by having two separate bets. So we advise 1pt on no goals at 10/3, and 1.5pts on exactly one goal at 9/4 in the Tyrone vs Armagh match this Sunday.

Taken together, these two prices add to around 54%, one better than the 55% that would be paid if we were to back the 4/5 about exactly one goal in the match.

In the weekend’s other football championship encounter, the meeting of Roscommon and Leitrim in Páirc Seán Mac Diarmada in Carrick-on-Shannon, there will be a strong temptation to side with the home team since Roscommon look extremely vulnerable and have come a cropper against their neighbours on more than a few occasions. However initial quotes of 11/8 about Mickey Moran’s team are more than short enough to make any suggestion of betting on Leitrim somewhat fanciful, and if anything they leave a little bit of value to be found in the visitors. Off the Ground is not about to go so far as to recommend a wager on Roscommon as they remain a very inconsistent and possibly even over-rated outfit, even at their current rating of mediocre, but Leitrim appear to have gone backwards under Moran and another famous valiant defeat could be on the cards here. Neither side looks destined for bigger things, but Roscommon still have a good young panel with plenty of talent and while the lack of support from older players will take a toll in the long run, they can scrape home here and will probably just about do so.

Tommy Freeman is a fine corner forward, but even he will struggle to break down this Derry full back line and if he can’t raise a green flag, his team-mates will find it doubly hard to do so.

At the other end of the field, the absence of Enda Muldoon has robbed Derry of one of their most disruptive forward players and without the possibility of unsettling the Monaghan defence as only a good and big full forward can do, Derry too might struggle to score any goals, as they have done all year long.

Ladbrokes are currently offering 4/5 about under 1.5 goals in this game and though the price is short, it could still offer value as these two particular leopards are unlikely to change their spots. This will be a dour and hard-fought Ulster championship game and a final score of 0-11 to 0-9 is eminently possible. In this climate, Off the Ground is happy to recommend a 3pt bet on Derry vs Monaghan to have under 1.5 goals at 4/5.

In complete contrast to this clash, the meeting of Kildare and Offaly will then be broadcast and it will be quite the shock if the twines aren’t rattled on a few occasions here. Both managers have named very attacking teams and in each case, it looks as if the forwards have the beating of their opponents. Offaly’s full back line consists of one marker, one old school full back who had a few tough days in the Spring, and one all round footballer who will be making his debut and who normally plays at wing back or even half forward. The half back line contains two very attacking footballers on the wing either side of a centre back also making his first intercounty championship start.

This is not dis-similar to the Kildare set up, with the Lilies lining out a very strong centre back in Brian Flanagan who will carry a lot of responsibility, surrounded as he is by two extremely attack minded wing backs, one makeshift full back and two debutant corners.

When one also considers that both sides have gone for scoring forwards as opposed to workmanlike trackers in their half forward lines as well, it’s clear that neither team is in this to win on a scoreline of 1-6 to 0-7. With Ladbrokes offering 15/8 about over 2.5 goals, a 2pt bet is certainly merited on this selection.

Finally, Off the Ground also suggests a small nibble on Seán Armstrong to be first goalscorer for Galway against London at the odds of 5/1. Kevin McMenamin’s withdrawal has taken away London’s main goalscoring threat and the Galway team named on paper is somewhat deceptive, unless Liam Sammon is going to surprise a lot of people. Galway insiders are of the belief that Armstrong and Michael Meehan will form a two man full forward line with Padraig and Nicky Joyce pulling out the field. In that scenario, while Meehan is always a clear goal threat of his own, Armstrong will obviously be another front runner in the runner - however his selection at number ten might have thrown off the compilers a little bit on this one.

As with all first goalscorer bets, a considerable dollop of luck will be needed to collect, however a 1pt bet on Armstrong to score first goal at 5/1 is justified in the hope that lady luck chooses to smile.

So it is with county teams at this time of year. There are those who have been looking after themselves keenly since October, eager to impress a new man at helm, or perhaps redeem an appalling campaign the previous summer, while there are also those for whom football or hurling was a distant memory over the winter, something to be thought of only when the panel regrouped, but not before. There will be teams up to their oxters in fitness training who’ve lost all recollection of what a football or a sliothar actually looks like, and there are those who have barely stopped playing for even a week. 

Managers who seek championship success will usually tell you the same thing – preseason campaigns, and even the first half of the league, mean very little. They are essentially challenge matches to test the unproven new recruits, or to try out older hands in a new role. However at the risk of sounding hackneyed, an even money winner in January pays just the same as an even money winner in July, so there is no reason to slack off the effort when it comes to digesting the information at hand and picking winners.

With two or three games under their belts, now is an excellent time to look past things like county reputation, head to head records and all these things which are irrelevant at this time of year, instead to focus on the basics like how teams are playing and how they measure up against each other.

Tonight’s McKenna Cup final will attract a fair chunk of media interest, however as a betting medium there isn’t really much value to be had. Both sides are playing well and look well matched based on form, so the match betting is a no go area. If a small wager was to be advised, we would look at two equal stakes, four more goals at 5/1 and exactly three goals at 9/2. Both these sides have been running up some healthy scoring tallies and this market has been priced as if scoring will be relatively low. With a free flowing game in store (more common in Ulster than many people would have you believe, and certainly very common in the McKenna Cup) then I would suggest a more realistic price for these two outcomes at around 3/1 each.

However our main bet for the weekend takes place tomorrow, where a decent sized wager is advised on Louth to beat DCU in the O’Byrne Cup final at 8/11. Louth have been simply devastating in this competition so far and they are clearly way ahead of any other team in this competition in terms of their training and fitness. Eamonn McEnaney has a quite talented bunch of players at his disposal, but he is no doubt aware that several of those players have shown a tendency to head for foreign shores rather than stick around when times are tough. He’ll want to keep a positive mood in the camp throughout the Spring and has clearly set out his stall to keep the foot on the accelerator at all times.

The level of talent within the DCU ranks is not at issue either, but their run to the final was a lot less spectacular and the Kildare panel will no doubt have felt Kieran McGeeney’s wrath for letting last weekend’s match slip when they were clearly the better team over the course of the match. A one point win over a mediocre Laois team and a dogged success over DIT offer evidence that DCU are competitive, but they’ll need more than that to overcome a Louth team which is firing on all cylinders. Louth minus one point on the handicap market is fair value at evens, but this column recommends the 8/11, just to be on the safe side – while the double result bet Louth/Louth, though attractive at 13/8, is never a good idea in Winter conditions where there can be a huge wind advantage one way or another. This bet should never be made before the coin toss, at least until after the clocks go forward.

For one final recommendation, a small nibble is advised on Carlow to upset Laois in the O’Byrne Shield final at 5/2. Carlow have been going really well in this competition, albeit against very poor opposition, but Luke Dempsey appears to be doing a good job and with the team working well for each other, it’s highly possible that a decent sized home crowd and local derby motivation will push them over the line tomorrow. If this was the summer then Carlow to beat Laois would be a bad bet even at 5/1, but at the time of year and with Seán Dempsey still keeping plenty in reserve in Laois, this looks set to be a very keenly fought contest with little likely to seperate the sides.