The GAA might pride itself on being an all-inclusive organisation, but a quick look at the media coverage for national league games will tell you where their interests really lie. Expect full page spreads on the big battles in division one, plenty of coverage of Mickey Harte and Kieran McGeeney as they attempt to drag their respective teams out of division two, while everyone else fights for the scraps from the Masters’ table!

However here at Starbets, we’re nothing if not pragmatic. A 2/1 winner in a division four basement battle watched by five men, three maor uisce and a dog is just as good as a 2/1 winner at Croke Park or Páirc Uí Chaoimh, so here now is our preview for the first week of division 3 and division 4 action.

Antrim vs Sligo

These two counties have become joined at the hip in recent years and this will be their eighth meeting since 2006 in the league, meaning that they have met each other more often than any other pairing in that time. Whether it’s promotion or relegation, neither county likes to do anything without the other and as such it’s no surprise that the bookies are finding it hard to split them in advance of tonight’s battle at Casement Park. Boylesports make the home side their ever-so-slight favourites, while Hills give the most tentative of nods to the visitors from the North West, but every other layer is right on the fence, offering even money each of two. Initially we were inclined towards sharing the view held by Hills, but the news that David Kelly doesn’t start was enough for us to recant. The Tubbercurry forward has been in fantastic form for DCU so far this season and while we think that Sligo might be able to get a good result without him, unless you’re in Casement Park and you see his distinctive red hair bobbing into the corner for the throw in, this is a no bet game.

London vs Fermanagh

The odds of 1/7 and 1/8 about a Fermanagh win might seem odd in the light of the most recent result between these two teams, but there is no contrast between the Fermanagh team of 2011 and the 2012 version under the tutelege of Peter Canavan. If there was a handicap bet to be had, we’d be suggesting that Fermanagh would cover, but there isn’t, so our hands remain in our pockets for this one too.

Clare vs Waterford

Not many football supporters from north of the Suir river will realise quite how talented the two O’Gorman brothers are, and how much of a blow their defection to the hurling panel is to John Kiely and his selectors. There still are some fine footballers in this Waterford team and they can certainly consider themselves unlucky to have made the drop last year after three of their five league defeats were by a goal or less, but Clare looked decent in preseason competition. Home advantage is worth a couple of points, while the availability of the Kilmurry-Ibrickane players is worth a few more.

Kilkenny vs Wicklow

Kilkenny’s forfeiture against Louth in the O’Byrne Cup could easily turn out to be their best result of the year. Wicklow to win by as much as they like, not that this is any use to us.

Leitrim vs Limerick

Limerick will feel very hard done by to be playing division four football and they now share with Roscommon the remarkable record of having reached an All Ireland quarter final one year only to play basement league football the year after. And no game more typifies division four than a trip to Páirc Séan MacDiarmada to play Leitrim. There is no glamour or glory to be had, but anything less than complete and total commitment will see you coming home empty handed. Limerick to win, but not without a fight.

Longford vs Offaly

The few bits of 8/11 about Longford that were floating around earlier in the week have disappeared a long time ago and now 4/7 is the best that can be had about a home win here. It’s easy to see why those prices were taken – Longford are much further on in their development while Offaly are going into battle without their standout player in Niall McNamee. Longford should win with a bit over a goal to spare.

Roscommon vs Tipperary

Tipperary bring a very strong, seasoned outfit up to Kiltoom for this fixture and against a Roscommon team shorn of their St Brigids players, they will be expected to come home with the points. However it may not turn out to be that simple against a Roscommon team with plenty of scoring still in their team. Logic dictates that the 11/8 from Hills about an away win is the way to go, but we’re going to stay on the fence in this one in terms of the result.

However these are two good goalscoring sides and neither is either team particularly convincing in the full back line. Ladbrokes are offering 3/1 about over 2.5 goals in this game and that’s a decent shout here.

Wexford vs Cavan

Our antepost tip for the division faces what should be their toughest fixture of the entire campaign when they travel to Wexford Park to take on the antepost favourites for this extremely competitive division. Here at Starbets we were all set to recommend Cavan as a live outsider for this fixture, but that was at a time when we expected them to be offered at something around 3/1. 2/1 doesn’t appeal nearly as much and instead the best play is to stick with Cavan on the outright market. Even if they lose here they still have a great chance, while a win will see their outright price slashed right into 7/2 or 4/1.

Division 3 and Division 4 recommendations

Clare vs Waterford: Clare @ 4/5 (Bet365, Boylesports, Powers, Hills)

Leitrim vs Limerick: Limerick to win by 1-3 pts @ 13/5 (Powers)

Longford vs Offaly: Longford -1 pt @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Roscommon vs Tipperary: Over 2.5 goals @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes)

For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

The GAA may get a lot of things wrong, but they have mastered the art of starting the National Football League with a bang in recent years and tomorrow night’s double header featuring Kildare vs Tyrone and Dublin vs Kerry is a genuinely mouthwatering attraction, one that should attract a substantial crowd for what will be an incredible night of entertainment. We’ll have a look at Kildare vs Tyrone later today, but for now, let’s have a look at the All Ireland final rematch to kick off our previewing for the week.

Dublin vs Kerry

Last year’s All Ireland final was not unlike an episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer for Dublin supporters, since so many demons were killed over the course of the match. They beat Kerry in an All Ireland final, they delivered a fantastic comeback when it looked like they were dead and buried and thus proved their mental fortitude, and above all they bridged the 16 year gap and ensured that the Sam Maguire Cup spent the winter in the nation’s capital city. Their priority for 2012 will of course be to retain that title and while any victory over Kerry is a good day’s work, much like the O’Byrne Cup semi final two weeks ago, this is a game that Dublin would like to win, but yet they have no real need of doing so. Bernard Brogan, Alan Brogan and Paul Flynn are among the significant absentees from the forward line, but Mossy Quinn has been in good form so far this year while Diarmuid Connolly is capable of scoring well, so that’s not really our concern.

Traditionally opposing Kerry in the first round of the league is a good policy to keep. They’ve often come out of the blocks slowly and usually bounce back in week two. That said, it’s never good to underestimate the intensity that a Kerryman can bring to a game if he feels in any way slighted. Last year was supposed to be Colm Cooper’s year to lift the Sam Maguire and while Dublin probably deserved their narrow win in the final, Kerry can certainly feel a little aggrieved with a few marginal decisions that went against them, none more so than the free that was awarded and converted by Stephen Cluxton to win the game. Dublin are a long way off full fitness yet and even without the Dr Crokes players, Kerry look like the more motivated side here.

Down vs Donegal

Last year Donegal hit the ground running, this year so far they’ve been very flat and the general consensus appears to be that a home win is the most likely outcome here. This column is not so sure about that. Derry shut down the highly rated Down attack in the McKenna Cup semi-final and thoughDonegal are missing a few very important players for this game – in the absence of Colm McFadden, Michael Murphy and Mark McHugh, one wonders where their scores will come from – this is a game where both managers will be drawing heavily on their reserves. In that context, the team with the best system, where panel players can slot in and do a job, may have the advantage and that suggests Donegal can be competitive in what could be one of the lowest scoring matches of the weekend. The match odds seem correct, so we’ll side with a shutout here.

Laois vs Mayo

Laois outdid themselves to secure promotion to division one last year, but one wonders if it will seem like a pyrrhic victory after a tough campaign in the top flight this Spring. Games away to Donegal, Kerry and Cork look like lost causes before the start, so they will have to look at taking at least five if not six points from their four home fixtures to have any chance of staying up. Mayo have been moving well so far this Spring and even though Laois tend to go well under lights at O’Moore Park, we suspect an arduous league campaign starts tomorrow night for Justin McNulty’s men.

Armagh vs Cork

Ladbrokes posted up 1/2 about a Cork win earlier this week and they were quickly brought back into line by the weight of money, while even the 2/5 that was generally available is starting to move now, as the punters line up to take on a home side shorn of their Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Armagh have sometimes surprised us in the past with strong performances at home, but two debutant corner forwards either side of a full forward who is more known for his workrate than his finishing does not suggest that they will score freely this weekend. Now look at the Cork team – arguably stronger than the side that lined out in their last championship match, due to players returning from injury. Taking a global view, it seems wrong not to recommend a single home team to win in a full round of games, but despite an inspecific sense of uneasiness about doing so, logic forces us to back Cork to cover the spread here.

Division One Recommendations

Dublin vs Kerry: Kerry @ 11/10 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Down vs Donegal: No Goalscorer @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)

Laois vs Mayo: Mayo -3pts @ 23/10 (Powers – alternative handicap)

Armagh vs Cork: Cork -3pts @ 11/10 (William Hill)

DCU’s threat to pull out of the O’Byrne Cup final, though understandable, has led to a re-opening of the debate on the participation of third level teams at this stage of the competition. The very real prospect of a walkover in the final of the Leinster competition would have given nightmares to the marketing department of new sponsors Bórd na Móna, while the bumper crowds in Newbridge the last few weeks undoubtedly focussed the minds too since nobody would have wanted to pass up the opportunity to have 5,000 people pay in to see the game. DCU could have been forgiven for wanting to pull out since after all, the Sigerson Cup is their main aim and the O’Byrne Cup would have been scant consolation if they slipped up against Cork IT in the first round, but the bigger picture was very much taken in here.

The decision to defer that first round tie until Tuesday week has allowed DCU to put in a more meaningful effort on Sunday, and undoubtedly that will bring a lot of the crowds back. Of course it won’t matter a jot, since Kildare are flying right now and will cruise home in this match. Until you see Kildare up close, it’s hard to conceive of quite how fit they are for this time of year. Cutting through DIT and Offaly for a short cut was not that much of a surprise, but they were very dominant against Dublin too and while Dublin undoubtedly had a lot of winter celebration to get out of the system, they won’t have enjoyed losing so comprehensively to one of their main rivals for the All Ireland this year. Paddy Power bookmakers are offering even money about Kildare minus three points on their handicap betting market and that definitely constitutes our first recommendation of the week.

Cork take on Tipperary in a McGrath Cup final that won’t keep the turnstile operators too busy, and while the 1/4 odds look suspiciously like buying money, our gut instinct here is to hold fire. There isn’t any particular basis to this logic, after all Cork’s reserves are an excellent group of footballers – many of them were starting for the county by the time last year’s All Ireland quarter final came around. Nonetheless there’s something unsettling about betting on teams to win at 1/4 in preseason games where the will to win as a team will be a distant second to the will to impress the manager as individuals.

NUIG didn’t get their Sigerson Cup tie postponed and they will host St Mary’s as planned on Wednesday of next week. The incentive of the trip to New York in the Autumn is always enough to keep teams honest here and even though there was no reward for opposing Mayo last week, at the 4/1 on offer from Powers, it’s hard not to do so again. Mayo are going through the motions at this stage and their trip to Portlaoise in the first round of the league is looming large on their schedule. Win and they set themselves up for a real run at a league title, lose and relegation will be an issue almost immediately. 4/1 is generous enough to warrant a small, speculative punt here.

Up north, Tyrone and Derry meet for another renewal of one of the most keenly contested rivalries in Gaelic Football. The vast majority of the Derry football team come from right beside the Tyrone border and if there was only a tin mug at stake, there would be no half measures for Derry in this game. This will be a low scoring, battle of attrition and Derry are on the back of three wins in succession against their neighbours. Ladbrokes and Boyles are each giving us odds against about a Derry win and the draw thrown in for good measure – that’s certainly good enough for us. It’s not that Tyrone will lie down – God knows the competitiveness of Tyrone football has been the subject of much discussion this week – but in this tie, Derry might have a slight edge, both on form and on desire.

Weekend Football Recommendations:

O’Byrne Cup Final: Kildare (-3pts) to beat DCU @ even money (Powers)

FBD League Final: NUIG to beat Mayo @ 4/1 (Powers)

McKenna Cup Final: Derry (+1pt) to beat Tyrone @ 11/10 (Boyles, Ladbrokes)

Once UCC secured the Cork senior football championship, their focus turned almost immediately to Kerry and the race for the senior championship in the south west. It’s safe to say that the players, management and supporters (few though they may be) of the college would have been praying for anyone other than Dr Crokes to come through the Kingdom’s championship since they knew that victory for the Killarney club would force them to play their Munster campaign without John Buckley and Daithi Casey, two key performers.

Despite a few scares, those prayers weren’t answered. Crokes successfully made their way through the Kingdom’s championship and so UCC were robbed of two of their key men – which, as it turned out, made little or no difference. Mike Griffin of the Na Gaeil club in Tralee took over at centre forward, Will Kennedy and Jamie Sullivan forged a solid partnership at midfield and the students continue to provide plenty of ammunition for their outstanding inside forward line of Paul Geaney, Stephen O’Brien and Gavan O’Grady, the Mid Kerry attacker who lined out against Dr Crokes in the Kerry final.

One of the hardest things in the betting game, or indeed in general in sports analysis, is to be able to read the warning signs suggesting that previously held views might be incorrect. A month ago this columnist would have thought that Dr Crokes would be far too strong for UCC if the college were shorn of two key players, but their subsequent results over Monaleen and Moyle Rovers have been impressive, while Dr Crokes were competitive but not necessarily stellar in their victory over Kilmurry-Ibrickane.

In terms of raw class, UCC obviously don’t have anyone of the standard of Colm Cooper, but they do have a tenacious half back line and midfield that could restrict the supply of ball into the Kerry captain as well as could be hoped for. However as Kilmurry-Ibrickane will testify, even keeping Cooper curtailed for three quarters of a match is no guarantee that he won’t still step up and push his club over the line in the closing stages. Nonetheless the crucial difference between the students and the Clare champions is that at the other end of the field, UCC have a group of forwards that can hope to run up a decent scoring total of their own. As one would expect from a college team, they are fast, in form, and carry no weak links all across the forward division.

Dr Crokes have come through a few narrow scrapes this year and one more would be no surprise, so it could be wise to keep the handicap on side for this one. Those extra two points are well worth the additional 13% that has to be paid in the price, so take the Magic Sign’s offer of 5/4 about UCC plus two.It might require a slightly larger stake but it’s surely good value at 13/2 that the match is either a draw or a one point win for Crokes, so it makes complete sense to do so.

However with two such strong attacking units, we’re also very interested in the total points market. Crokes have come up against some very impressive defensive units in recent rounds so their scoring has dried up a little, but 24.5 still seems a little low for a game between two attacking sides in Fitzgerald Stadium, even if the weather conditions aren’t kind. We’ll wind up our recommendations with a suggestion to have a small nibble on Paul Geaney to nab the first goal at the odds of 7/1 on offer from William Hill.

Munster Club SFC Final Tips:

Dr Crokes vs UCC: UCC plus 2 points @ 5/4 (Ladbrokes)

Total Points: Under 25.5 @ 8/11 (Hills)

First Goalscorer: Paul Geaney @ 7/1 (Hills)

So far this year, backing Crossmaglen to win their games and to cover their handicaps has been a lucrative habit. The reigning All Ireland champions easily sailed through the competition in Armagh, winning the county final by a record 25 points, and since then they’ve come up against good opposition in Ballinderry and St Galls and yet haven’t missed a step en route to where they are now, sixty minutes away from retaining the Ulster club championship title.

Their journey so far in 2011 bears plenty of resemblance to their 2010 season, and ominously for the South Armagh men, it was Burren of Down who came the closest to eliminating them last November, falling a single point short in the Ulster club semi-final played at Casement Park. Indeed Burren had four good chances to pull level in the last five minutes of that tie and Kevin McKernan will undoubtedly still remember his miss from 30 yards out that looked for all the world as if it was going to send the match into extra time.

Before coming to any firm conclusions on this week’s meeting in the Athletic Grounds, we have to ask the question – was last year’s 1-11 to 2-7 win a fair reflection of the two teams, or did Crossmaglen fall asleep when they were eight points up and allow Burren back into a game that was dead and buried? We’ve covered at length here on the GAA section of StarBets.ie how this Crossmaglen Rangers team is very different from the side that strangled the life out of opponents for most of the previous decade. They score freely, they attack in numbers and critically, they look to win going away rather than by keeping their opponent at arm’s length. It means that they are an enjoyable side to watch as a team that defends and attacks with equal strength, but it also means that when they do go through a fallow period, they don’t have the same ability to restrict opposition sides from scoring and they can cough up leads. When Burren got on top of last year’s game, Crossmaglen conceded scores at a rate that saw their eight point advantage eroded, while Crossmaglen teams of old were out of sight when they led by five.

While Burren will have learned plenty from that tie, the Down champions are no longer an unknown quantity at this level and indeed Crossmaglen will have absorbed some lessons from last year’s game too. They will also reintroduce Jamie Clarke up front and that will obviously lend more potency to the attack, while the added pace that he’ll bring to the table should allow the half forward line to lend a bit more support to the defence than they did in the corresponding fixture last year. Both sides are missing players, but Crossmaglen seem to be dealing well with the absence of Paul Kernan at full back as Brendan McKeown has filled in well, while Aaron Cunningham fits in well into their general play.

Burren on the other hand are down their two starting midfielders Declan Rooney and Conor Toner and against Latton, their absence really told. Eoin Lennon had a big day for the Monaghan champions securing a steady flow of possession and even if Johnny Hanratty still can’t play a part, Cross should go well in this sector on Sunday. The Burren half forward line are a lively trio that can create and convert scores, but overall Cross should get at least two or three more and we take them to cover the spread this week.

Ulster Club SFC Tip:

Crossmaglen Rangers vs Burren: Crossmaglen Rangers -2pts @ 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

St Brigids of Dublin and Portlaoise may have started the Leinster championship as joint favourites to secure the provincial title, but wildly varying fortunes in the first round for the two clubs means that it’s the Dublin champions who are the clear antepost favourites in advance of this weekend’s quarter final, currently best priced at 13/8 with Ladbrokes.

On paper, both sides should progress through their quarter final ties with minimal difficulty. Rathnew are coming off the back of a heartbreaking one point defeat in the Wicklow senior championship final and it’s never easy to bounce back from results like that, particularly in the space of a week. The general standard of club football has levelled out in Wicklow in recent years, with the consequence that the Rathnew men are no longer competitive on a Leinster stage. Portlaoise may have diced with death against St Patricks, but they should improve for coming through that test and with home advantage on their side, they should steady the ship this week.

For Horeswood, the prognosis is even more bleak. While they have some Leinster experience, their last two Leinster outings ended in heavy defeats to Moorefield and Clonguish, and Wexford clubs have been the soft touch in the province for some time now. One solitary win in the last decade of attempts, that coming for Starlights over Rathvilly in 2004 after a replay, is the sole reward for ten years of endeavour on the Leinster stage. The fortunes of Wexford’s intercounty footballers may be improving, but as long as so many of their leading players ply their trade in Dublin, their flagship clubs will always struggle.

With St Brigids facing into their sixth weekend of action in succession, many would suggest that Horeswood might have an advantage in terms of freshness. Sadly for the Wexford club, this isn’t the case either. Since they won the Wexford senior final most of the club’s efforts have been focussed on hurling, including a Wexford junior final as well as two Leinster junior club championship matches against St Brigids of Westmeath and Ballyfin of Laois. The Laois club finally ended their hurling year last weekend with a two point victory.

While it’s obviously useful to be match fit, a club like Horeswood taking a big step up in class this weekend needs to be playing challenge matches against other county champions, and ideally good ones. They can’t have been able to focus fully on this with their attention focussed on hurling and so they won’t be in a position to make the best of this opportunity. The time may come when the Castleknock/Blanchardstown club run out of steam, but this weekend they have the ability to win well while still leaving something in the tank. The handicap most commonly on offer from the bookmaking community is six points and if St Brigids are able to brush Summerhill aside, we suspect they’ll be well able to do the same to Horeswood.

Leinster Club SFC Recommendation

St Brigids vs Horeswood: St Brigids -6pts @ 11/10 (Ladbrokes)

Our last stop in our sweep of the country this week is in West Ulster, where the last two football quarter finals in that province take place tomorrow afternoon. The presence of Kevin McKernan and Michael Murphy on the International Rules panel meant that these games were delayed for an extra few weeks and that delay came at a huge price for Roslea, who saw their influential midfielder James Sherry sustain a facial injury in their league final win over Derrygonnelly.

Before Sherry’s injury, this column was strongly contemplating tipping up Roslea for an upset here. Fermanagh football has gone through a lot of upheaval in recent years and there certainly are problems in the county, but the Roslea club have been consistently strong and they can look back on their 2010 Ulster championship outing against Coalisland with pride. The two Maguires are strong scorers up front and they, as much as anyone, were entitled to be delighted with the draw. Indeed the success of Lisnaskea Emmets last year proved that while their county team is in disarray, the general standard of club football in Fermanagh is much better than their population would suggest.

Factor in home advantage and how all the pressure is on Burren coming into this game, and even allowing for Sherry’s absence, we still couldn’t tip up Burren to cover the substantial spread this week. The Down winners have a rich history of success, but you have to go back to the 1980′s to find the last time they actually won the Ulster championship, while their narrow defeat to Crossmaglen last year was slightly deceptive in that Cross, atypically, allowed Burren back into a game that was dead and buried. Boylesports are 11/10 about Roslea plus six points and while they are likely to be outclassed here, they still have enough about them to keep Burren on their toes and to stay within four or five points.

The meeting of Glenswilly and Latton in Ballybofey is a tricky one to assess as neither team looks on paper to be up to the standard required to go well in this competition. The only difference is the presence of Michael Murphy on the Glenswilly side. William Hill are the only bookie that look to be going after Glenswilly this week at a match price of 4/9, but oddly enough Glenswilly’s win over Cavan Gaels illustrates the danger of such a bet. Their match at Kingspan Breffni Park was a dour, low scoring encounter, much like what will be expected in MacCumhaill Park this week. In that instance, the sucker punch of a goal was enough to turn the tide and scupper a lot of bets.

Murphy’s presence makes Glenswilly the better team, but in a low scoring match like this, 4/9 is not a safe bet. Indeed this writer can’t remember the last time he saw total points pitched at 20.5 for a senior championship football match – and even at that level, we couldn’t recommend going high, such is the nature of the Glenswilly style of play. Instead, we’ll take a couple of overpriced first goalscorer bets for small stakes – Murphy himself, and the elusive Bernard O’Brien for Latton.

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Ulster Club SFC Tips

Roslea vs Burren: Roslea +6 @ 11/10 (Boylesports)

Glenswilly vs Latton: Michael Murphy and Bernard O’Brien, first goalscorer @ 4/1 & 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

Many teams have suffered at the hands of Crossmaglen Rangers in recent years, and no doubt many good footballers within Armagh will retire with a lot less medals in their pocket than would have been the case if they weren’t playing football up against the greatest club team that the country has ever known on a regular basis. Outside of Armagh there were plenty of clubs that would also feel that they could have achieved much more were it not for the presence of the South Armagh giants in their domain – none more so than Ballinderry, who lost two Ulster finals to the black and amber men in the last five years.

The 2006 final only lives on in the memory of the most masochistic supporters as the 0-5 to 0-3 victory that Crossmaglen enjoyed that day was hardly a celebration of all that’s best about gaelic football. The weather played a big part, but so did Crossmaglen’s incredible defensive strength. In 2008 they played out a drawn game at 1-10 each on a day when ten yellow and three red cards were given out, and the absence of Enda Muldoon for the replay was just one of a number of factors that played their part in Cross easing their way to a 0-12 to 1-4 success second time around.

Like a lot of clubs back then, Ballinderry were able to get close to Cross, but getting past them was another matter entirely. Very few of this current generation in Ballinderry were around in late 2001 when the club last got their hands on the Ulster title, so we won’t worry about the Derry champions lacking hunger in Casement Park on Sunday. By far the bigger issue is of course if they will lack the scoring power needed to overcome this new look Crossmaglen unit. On paper, an attack featuring Conleth Gilligan, Enda Muldoon, Raymond Wilkinson and teenage sensation Aaron Devlin shouldn’t struggle for scores. However they have failed to light up the scoreboard on a few occasions so far this year, not least in their county final against Kilrea, and unlike Cross teams of times gone by, this generation of Cross Rangers are scoring freely. To register 3-9 against a team of St Galls calibre was extremely impressive, and that was with Oisín McConville only coming on at half time. In fact backing Cross to win, and to cover the spread, has been the way to surefire profit in the past couple of seasons. Once upon a time the smart money was always on Cross winning, but by just about enough. No team was ever so comfortable at two or three points in front.  Now, under Tony Kernan, they’ve opened up their game and while they haven’t lost any of their trademark physicality, the view that they have a policy of taking physicality too far is a little unfair. Indeed it was encouraging to see St Galls captain Seán Kelly coming out after the game and making it clear that he and his club had no problem with the way Cross play the game.

Their chief concern is the injury to Johnny Hanratty, whose fine form at midfield has been such a big factor in their good play this year. If he plays, then Ballinderry could be forced to pull Enda Muldoon back to midfield, with obvious knock on effects for the scoring capacity of the Derry men. If he doesn’t start, the handicap of three points is probably fair. However while his injury is severe, they don’t come any tougher than Hanratty and we’ve a sneaking suspicion he’ll play a part in Belfast. Hence we suggest you take Ladbrokes price of 11/10 about Cross winning by four or more.

For our goalscorer bet, we’re going to show a disappointing lack of imagination – Jamie Clarke. The inside forward is the one vital element of this team that cannot be replaced. He engages defenders, he creates and converts scores, and crucially he has a great eye for goal. He also delivers when the need is greatest – witness the All Ireland final last March – and with Cross in the unusual situation where their games are getting easier as they move through Ulster, this would be a very good time for him to step up.

---

Ulster Club SFC Tips

Crossmaglen Rangers vs Ballinderry: Crossmaglen -3 @ 11/10 (Ladbrokes)

Anytime Goalscorer: Jamie Clarke @ 11/5 (Powers)

Back in 1999, the world of GAA was a very different place. Cork were about to round off a decade in which hurling had captured the imagination of the public like never before with a one point victory over Kilkenny in a rain sodden Croke Park, while the goalscoring of Ollie Murphy and the playmaking of Trevor Giles were the driving force behind Meath regaining the Sam Maguire Cup at the expense of Cork.

And far away from the frontline, your columnist was beginning his employment at Paddy Power bookmakers, at a time when the world of GAA betting was a very different place. It’s worth recalling, if only for the nostalgia of it all. Singles betting was for championship matches only and national league games were “minimum trebles” unless live on TV – which was rare enough in itself. Betting on lower divisions was unheard of, and club match betting only started in the latter stages of the provincial club championships, and even then was priced to 114% or some such ridiculous margin.

Handicap betting was in its infancy, while live televised games occasionally got “the full treatment” – which at the time meant the inclusion of winning margin betting and double result.

At the time, soccer, sports and racing betting was all managed by the one department in Powers, headed up by a native of the North East of England who understood his flat racing but couldn’t get his head around Gaelic Games. When yours truly looked to price up things like county finals and first goalscorer markets on televised championship games, a lot of persuasion was required to convince this man that there was no risk of corruption or throwing games. Suffice it to say that he had never attended an event like the Tipperary hurling final to put his mind to ease as to quite how important these things are to those involved.

All of this sets the context for the current environment, a mere decade later, where as many as thirty markets are available on a televised club final, over a hundred markets are on offer for an All Ireland semi final or final and match betting is available on intermediate club games, ladies football and camogie, first round minor championship matches and even more obscure events like the Gaeltacht championship.

TV coverage has been the driver for much of this, but vastly improved online resources have also played a part in allowing compilers to inform themselves so much better, as stated by Ladbrokes GAA man Neil Walsh.

“In fairness it is less of a minefield pricing local events than it was a few years back”, said Walsh. “Information about team news, opinions and analysis is all far easier to come by due to online communication tools. Previously you would have needed eyes and ears in each county, access to local newspapers etc. Now it’s all available online, plus there are more firms active on these games in the marketplace and consequently a stronger market is formed as the value is picked off and the market is ultimately shaped by customer activity.”

The stronger marketplace is another recent development. While local bookmakers always used to cater for events in their catchment area in order to gain an edge over the big chains, now there is much more of an emphasis among the multiples to make sure that all local needs are catered for as a matter of course. Punters too are much more aware of what’s going on elsewhere, as exiled country folk walk into shops in the heart of Dublin but with their heart still beating for a small village somewhere on the Western seaboard and eager to bet on the big event in that village, not just the Dublin senior championships.

Powers led the way initially but now it has become something of an arms race between them, Ladbrokes, Boyles, and the newest player on the market, William Hill. Michael Sheehan of Hills explained to StarBets about the explosion in activity that his company has seen since launching WilliamHill.ie.

“We knew that in order to connect with the Irish public, we simply had to offer a more localised product and Gaelic Football and Hurling are at the heart of that. As a bookmaker, we have noticed that customers, while very keen on Match/Handicap Betting, are also eager to look closely at games and to look for value in the goalscorer and Winning Margin markets, and as the sport has increased in popularity, we’ve looked to add more markets, and in 2012 our aim is to double the product offering that we had this year.”

Both bookmakers also confirmed the importance of in play betting, and the growth of that product, largely driven by increased access from mobile devices. However with the GAA looking at reducing the number of games on TV due to falling attendances, opportunities for growth are probably somewhat limited in that sector. So where do things go from here? Neil Walsh felt that the third level sector was the next key growth area, albeit with a lot of onus on the relevant committees to improve access and promotion of these hidden gems in the GAA calendar.

“Sigerson and Fitzgibbon Cup are great competitions, but they are the perfect example of the GAA hiding their light under a bushel. These games have potential to be extremely high profile given the right presentation. The standard is already superb. Think of the profile of US College sports, and we have something equally special here, yet it is played out on midweek afternoons in relative obscurity beyond those who make it their business to follow. We’d love to do more with them, but the profile has to be raised.”

Right now, with club intermediate and junior levels available in shops, countless markets available online and several bookmakers fighting to be market leader, it’s hard to imagine that substantial scope for future growth exists. But then, sitting in an office in Tallaght trying to convince an Englishman that a county final was a big deal, it would have been impossible to imagine the world of GAA betting that we now inhabit.

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