Now that we’ve covered the intercounty football action this weekend, all that remains is to take a look at the hurling, club and minor action that is also down for decision. In no particular order, here’s a sprinkling of recommendations from the variety of matches taking place all across Ireland.

Minor Football

Both Dublin and Kildare start as prohibitively short priced favourites in the Leinster minor chammpionship this afternoon. Dublin won the Leinster minor league very well, but still will have taken plenty of lessons from a tough final battle with Meath and their round robin draw with Offaly. They look to be going well again, even though it’s an almost entirely new team with only a small handful of players from the 2011 squad still eligible. Longford probably don’t have the players to cause an upset here, but Louth might against an equally well fancied Kildare side.

Louth have struggled at minor level for a long time but they have shown some decent form so far this year and their second half performance against Westmeath looks even better now that the midlanders have gone on to beat Carlow in the qualifiers. Kildare are a very strong team and the Athy pair of David Hyland and Niall Kelly at 6 and 11 respectively are hugely impressive young players, but no group of teenagers can be trusted to play to form all the time, while the large squad in Kildare means that they might be less sure of their best team than some other sides. Boylesports are 9/2 about a Louth win here and that’s enough to justify a small, speculative bet.

Leinster SHC

At the start of the year, punters would have struggled to separate Carlow and Westmeath. Equally, it would have been the view that there was little to call between Laois and Antrim. Those who say that the league is irrelevant need only to look at the betting for today’s games to see that the bookmakers still attach plenty of significance to Spring hurling. Carlow and Antrim went well and so are well fancied, while Laois and Westmeath are very easy to lay.

Antrim should beat Westmath and their price is probably correct, but it’s possible that the market is overestimating the chance of an upset in Dr Cullen Park. Carlow manager Kevin Ryan has come out and claimed that he’s not getting the effort from his players since they won the league – on the one hand there is probably some degree of exaggeration here for the sake of effect, but it’s still not a good sign. Carlow would need to be firing on all cylinders to beat Laois here and it’s odd that there is a disconnect between the match and handicap prices in this fixture – nowhere more than at Ladbrokes, where they are 4/6 about a Laois win and 8/11 Laois minus one on their handicap betting market.

Galway SHC

The relegation battles start this weekend and one of the most intriguing fixtures will be the meeting of Carnmore and Liam Mellows at Athenry tomorrow. It’s unusual in this say and age for teams to be eliminated from a Senior Championship by mid-May, but that’s exactly the situation that these two clubs find themselves in, and picking themselves up to save their senior status is a very different challenge to trying to win a title. Carnmore are a small, close knit club whereas Liam Mellows are a city team, with a bigger pick but perhaps lacking the same solidarity. Neither club has shown any form so far this year – they wouldn’t be in this mess if they had – but if Carnmore can harness the sense of hurt they would have felt after losing to Padraig Pearses by a point, they could be the better betting option here.

Offaly SFC

Needless to say this columnist was always going throw a quick shout to the Offaly championship, where the big event will be the double header in O’Connor Park tomorrow afternoon. The second leg of this double header involves champions Edenderry taking on Tullamore and while Tullamore were very disappointing last year, they’ve always gone well under the guidance of former player Phil O’Reilly, who once again takes charge of his home town. Edenderry’s championship run last year centred around some great play from Richie Dalton and Seán Pender, neither of whom have hit form yet this year. In contrast, Tullamore’s younger players like Michael Brazil, John Moloney and Declan Hogan are all moving well. Boylesports lead the market at 13/10 and should get some interest at that level.

Recommendations

Leinster MFC: Louth to beat Kildare @ 9/2 (Boylesports)

Leinster SHC: Laois to beat Carlow @ 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

Galway SHC: Carnmore to beat Liam Mellows @ 11/8 (Powers)

Offaly SFC: Tullamore to beat Edenderry @ 13/10 (Boylesports)

Technically, the race for the All Ireland football championship got underway a fortnight ago in Gaelic Park in New York, but with all due respect to the Exiles, the real business starts this weekend, with action taking place in all four provinces. We’ll have a look at the matches later today, but here’s our antepost look at the four provincial championships and our recommendations, starting down south, where Waterford travel to Limerick with a real possibility of making a Munster Final for the first time in over half a century.

Munster SFC

Last year all four of the weaker counties in Munster faced one of the two traditional powers in their first game. No team got within ten points of Cork or Kerry, and the gap between the best and the rest seemed to be as wide as was ever the case. Nothing that has happened so far in 2012 suggested that things are about to change, as Tipperary regressed in their league campaign and the other three counties all failed to escape the basement division. The draw has been kind to Limerick, Clare and Waterford as one of those three will contest a Munster decider, but in the absence of an each way option, that’s really not much use to us. So it’s down to Cork or Kerry, and as usual there is little to call between the two.

This year the pair would be due to meet in Páirc Uí Chaoimh, they are odds against and the Rebel attack is moving a lot better for the return of some of their injured stars. On that basis, they get a tentative nod.

Connacht SFC

Out west, we know that Mayo will be in the final since there is no way they’ll slip up against either Leitrim or London. We know that 8/13 corresponds with a match price of 8/11, which would be reasonable enough if Galway got to the final and were in good scoring form – something which is very possible now that Michael Meehan is close to a full recovery. Nonetheless, Galway face two very dangerous banana skins en route, starting this weekend in Dr Hyde Park. On that basis, Mayo are great value because this 8/13 will look like a massive price if the Tribesmen slip up.

Of the outsiders, Sligo make marginally more appeal than Roscommon simply because they are available at 12/1 and have one less hurdle to cross, but the smart money is still best placed on Mayo.

Ulster SFC

Now the analysis starts to get complicated. What looked like a very handy draw for Down has got a little trickier now that Peter Canavan has made some progress at the helm of Fermanagh, while despite the absence of any real reason for this line of thought, we have a niggling feeling that there could be a kick in Antrim yet. However in a provincial championship littered with minefields, it’s still hard to pick out better value than James McCartan’s charges. Tyrone were flying during the league but Armagh’s performances in Division 1 were very decent as well and that was largely operating without their Crossmaglen players. Donegal should cruise past Cavan this week but they won’t have it easy against Derry in the next round, and neither will they have a huge tactical advantage on all other teams who will be much better prepared for their strategy. Even at best prices, it works out at 4/9 that the team from the good side of the draw wins the final. Out of those, only Armagh at 17/2 with Victor Chandler looks anyway attractive, and it’s very much the poor relation of the five recommended bets below.

Ultimately, Down are odds on to reach the Ulster final and if they get that far, they have the pedigree to put their best foot forward and cause teams problems. Certainly 11/2 outright is a decent price, thinking along the same lines as we did in Connacht. If Tyrone get there, those odds will prove correct. If Tyrone slip up, then this could work out aas a great value bet.

Leinster SFC

From a value betting point of view, this prediction could not be easier or more straightforward. Kildare are 3/1 with VCBet and they make massive appeal at that price. With Meath going so poorly right now, there is a case for saying that of the eleven teams in Leinster, Kildare and the four weakest counties make up one half of the draw. Meath supporters might disagree, but at what point do we start realising that there is a lot more to Meath’s difficulties than one man from Monaghan callen McEnaney? Their under-21 footballers were very poor, Joe Sheridan has missed a lot of time, they haven’t freshened up their team and the players know that the manager is hanging by a thread.

Wicklow’s division 4 title was a worthwhile achievement, much more meaningful than anything they did under Mick O’Dwyer with the possible exception of their Leinster championship win over Kildare, but the standard of football in that fixture was pedestrian in comparison to what Kildare will produce. Offaly are in utter, utter disarray and will be happy just to avoid damage limitation in the Leinster quarter final, while Carlow show no signs of improvement.

Of course Dublin have to be respected, but they have a much tougher route to the final, and even if they do get there, they are entitled to be considered favourites by a point or two, at most. One contentious decision split the teams in 2011 and anything other than 4/6 vs 6/4 would be incorrect betting in such a hypothetical final. Kildare at 3/1 are by far the best value provincial bet available right now.

Provincial Championships – Antepost Recommendations

Munster SFC: Cork @ 6/5 (Hills)

Connacht SFC: Mayo @ 8/13 (Powers, Stan James, Hills)

Ulster SFC: Armagh @ 17/2 (BetVictor), Down @ 11/2 (Boylesports)

Leinster SFC: Kildare @ 3/1 (BetVictor)

When Tyrone and Kildare met on the first weekend of the National Football League season, also at Croke Park, Kildare were generally priced by the bookies at 8/13 or 4/7 to take the win. Fast forward nearly twelve weeks and the same two sides are back at Croke Park, only this time, Tyrone carry the favourites’ mantle into the fixture. We start our analysis of Sunday’s double header by asking – is this justified?

Tyrone vs Kildare

Are Tyrone a better team than we thought on the 1st of February this year? Absolutely. Peter Harte has gone from being the centre of a tug’o'war in the McKenna Cup to becoming an actual contender for footballer of the year. Veterans Owen Mulligan and Stephen O’Neill are balancing an otherwise youthful attack, and they’ve won seven games on the spin while still not feeling the need to ask too much of their talisman, Seán Cavanagh. However while they are a very strong group and closer to the All Ireland standard than we thought, their team selection for this game causes us a little concern. Conor Gormley is a real horses for courses selection at full back to take on Tomás O’Connor, but around the middle there is a legitimate concern that Tyrone might not have the same energy and power as their Kildare counterparts.

Up front, Tyrone’s injury jinx has struck again and Kyle Coney will join Ronan O’Neill on the sidelines for the remainder of the season. Niall McKenna is a decent replacement but Coney was in great form all Spring and was finally delivering on his substantial potential – the Tyrone attack looks a lot less potent for his absence. O’Neill and Mulligan are contributing, but they are not able to run up large totals any more and Coney’s presence and form took off a lot of that pressure.

However if we ask the question – have Kildare improved in the last twelve weeks? The answer there too is a resounding yes. They have scored freely, they dug deep to produce a great draw in Galway when they needed it, and they’ve done all this without the slightest bit of help from Cavan schoolteachers living in Straffan.

At the end of the 2011 championship season, pretty much every analyst put Kildare ahead of Tyrone in their overall rankings. Tyrone have since shown some good form but they’ve also lost two very good young players. Kildare are now finding their stride and the option of taking them at even money with a one pointhead start is too appealing to refuse. The bookies have over-reacted here.

Cork vs Mayo

Even allowing for the round robin game between these two counties last month in McHale Park at Castlebar, Mayo have won seven of the last nine meetings between themselves and the Rebels – and anyone who was in the Mayo county ground on the 25th of March could testify that the home side probably deserved a draw at the very least on that occasion. So on head to head form, Mayo clearly have an edge coming into this game.

Yet Cork are very clear favourites with the bookies here with Mayo offered at prices as big as 9/4 in places. Paddy Powers are able to lead the market with a price of 4/7 about the Leesiders, a price that probably should be the middle of the market rather than the edge.

Granted Cork have enjoyed some big wins this year, but Cork’s modus operandi is simple – they try to overpower you by carrying the ball from deep positions, albeit with Aidan Walsh at full forward as an outlet, and if you struggle to deal with that, you’re in for a long afternoon. Down simply aren’t able for it and they’ve now shipped two heavy beatings from the Rebels, but Mayo should be much better equipped. This is a relatively young Mayo team but they are fit and strong and won’t give an inch in the stamina stakes. That leaves us back to the old situation where the best and most natural footballers win, and that doesn’t always play to Cork’s strongest attributes.

The Rebels have got more by way of natural forwards, but even at their peak, Mayo never depended on a plethora of accurate, sniper-like corner men. Their game, not unlike Cork of 2011, is built on rampaging runners coming from deep and intelligent covering for each other. For as long as Cork continue to persist with their 2012 tactic of kicking the ball through the cumulonimbus and back down onto the head of Aidan Walsh, they remain a team struggling a little with their identity. Mayo may exploit that this Sunday.

NFL Division 1/2 Recommendations

Tyrone vs Kildare: Kildare +1pt @ evens (general)

Cork vs Mayo: Mayo +3pts @ 5/6 (Hills)

The somewhat ceremonial final between Kildare and Tyrone is still down for decision, but for the rest of the second division of the National Football League, the next competitive game will be championship fare. Following on from our division one assessments, Here’s the Starbets grades on how the eight counties performed in the league this past few months.

Tyrone – A

Honestly, if we could put a gold star onto this grade, we would. Despite peripheral roles from a lot of the older players, Tyrone have been impeccable throughout this league campaign, playing football with great pace and intensity while still giving playing time to plenty of their younger footballers. The one accusation levelled at Mickey Harte in recent years that was probably a little justified is that he was too slow to realise when some of his loyal servants were past their best and no longer worthy of a place in the first fifteen. This year we’ve finally started to see the best of players like Kyle Coney and Peter Harte and the team has benefitted.

All that said, they’ve still got a very tough run through Ulster in prospect. We’re certainly impressed by what they’ve done so far, but that doesn’t automatically imply that they are a great bet for provincial success, at least not at prices shorter than 2/1.

Kildare – B

Whatever problems there are in the short grass county, on the field of play everything is rosy. Their late escape act to come away from Pearse Stadium with a draw proved their character, while they’ve made a mockery of their supposed “need” for a corner forward like Seanie Johnston by scoring more than any other team bar Wexford in the top three divisions. RTE’s decision to take their Leinster quarter-final meeting with Offaly off the air for fear of offending sensitive viewers says it all about where they are right now.

Galway – C

Their disappointing results against Louth and Westmeath came back to haunt them in terms of promotion, but right now division 2 is not a bad place to be for Galway. They still have a lot of rebuilding to do and staying a little bit below the radar is no harm. Defensively they remain quite strong and the forward line now has balance, but the fact that Padraig Joyce is still the standout performer when he’s on the field is a little bit worrying. Without a genuine blue chip attacker, the worry has to be that there is a bit of a glass ceiling in place for them. That said, after the disarray of the past couple of years, this was a solid Spring showing.

Louth – C

For Louth, this league was all about the nine point win in Navan that relegated the Royal County. Everything else that happened during the campaign was merely a preamble to that fixture. However while they performed well, Westmeath’s resurrection is a cause of concern for the championship since the two sides will meet once again next month. Defensively, Peter Fitzpatrick still has a lot to do and there would be concerns in the county that some of their more experienced forwards might not be as effective on the faster ground. They’ve done well, but it’s difficult to see significant further improvement by the summer.

Westmeath – B

Pat Flanagan has performed miracles here extracting Westmeath out of the relegation mire and saving their place in division two. Without any of the Garrycastle players, without several others due to emigration and injury, he masterminded three wins to secure a mid table finish. Now, unexpectedly, there is a great sense of optimism in the county. Denis Glennon looks to be back to his best up front and if John Heslin performs, he can be hugely effective. Right now they’ve got a lot of momentum and they could even be dark horses to give the Dubs a few nervous moments in Croke Park, provided they get through the challenge of Louth in Navan

Derry – D

They could have had few complaints if they were relegated since they never looked on form throughout the league campaign, with the exception of their six point win over Monaghan. None of the forwards have stepped up to support Paddy Bradley and while he’ll obviously get a lot more help this summer from brother Eoin who is almost back to full fitness, no new players established themselves by playing consistently well throughout the campaign. Right now they look like very poor value for the Ulster championship.

Meath – F

Where do you begin? On the field of play, they actually had a few good outings. They started well against Monaghan, they were clinical in the way they put Westmeath to the sword and they produced a great performance against Kildare which could have resulted in a victory, or maybe even a draw. However since then it’s been all downhill, resulting in the current unseemly public squabbling that is unworthy of a county of their stature. It’s clear that Banty has lost the dressing room, but sending Seán Boylan in would be no help. Boylan is one of the greats of the game but his time has come and gone and the biggest point in his favour is that no county board officer could be criticised for giving him the job. They’d be better off losing to Wicklow, because unless something very strange happens, Kildare will obliterate them in a Leinster semi-final.

Monaghan – E

Their tempestuous win over Kildare should have galvanised the team but instead they limped through the rest of the season, passing up great chances to make their division two status secure. They should have done much better in Mullingar, they coughed up a five point lead against Galway and they played Tyrone when the league leaders had nothing to play for. The prospect of re-introducing players like Dessie Mone, Conor McManus and Tommy Freeman for the championship will keep supporters energised and certainly the Ulster championship draw has been very kind, but right now it’s the Paul Finlay show with nothing by way of a support act. That’s just not good enough.

Unlike the top flight, the lower divisions of the National Football League are littered with contests where there is little or nothing at stake for the competing teams this weekend. Plenty of sides have no reason to look either up or down the table, and while that can often lead to betting opportunities, it’s a dangerous game to play. For that reason, we’re going to start with the most competitive game of them all, the Division Two promotion decider at Pearse Stadium.

Galway vs Kildare

Two good golden rules to follow in the betting game are, never trust Galway at odds on against a weaker opponent, but always respect their ability to produce a very high quality game when you least expect it. A one point haul from their games against Louth and Westmeath seemed to condemn them to another mid table finish at best, but good wins over Monaghan and Meath have salvaged their season and suddenly they face a one off game with promotion on the table for the winner.

However for Galway, the timing could not be worse since the Lilies are on an incredible run of form at the moment, scoring 7-69 in their last four games. Since Galway have yet to score nineteen times in a game this year, never mind average nineteen scores over a run of four games, it’s safe to say that a huge defensive performance will be required if the Tribesmen are to prevail on Sunday.

Kildare’s pursuit of Seanie Johnston continues unabated, but honestly it’s hard to see why he’s needed. They’ve found their rhythm now and while we don’t like opposing Galway at odds on, we’ll instead take Kildare to cover an alternative handicap at a big price. Galway might pull off a shock here, but anything less than their best and they could be on the end of a heavy defeat.

Meath vs Louth

Under normal circumstances, these teams would be cursing their luck as relegation rivals Monaghan got the benefit of playing Tyrone when the Red Hand men were already qualified, but Mickey Harte would be very slow to harm the integrity of the competition so chances are that Tyrone will go for the win and get it, so Meath will probably be safe from relegation regardless of how they go in this fixture. Nonetheless this match has the potential to be quite spiky since there is plenty of feeling left over from the famous Leinster final of 2010, and Louth didn’t exactly make a good effort at redeeming their pride in last year’s qualifier fixture.

The Wee County are actually playing quite well at the moment without necessarily getting the results  their football deserves. While their under-21 players were outclassed on Wednesday night, there are one or two individuals in that panel who are ready to make a meaningful contribution at senior level. Meath too have played some reasonable football in recent weeks but Seán Boylan’s resignation from his “Director of Football” role is very worrying. If Louth can get over their traditional hang up when it comes to playing Meath – admittedly that’s a big if – they look like the value here with the head start.

Cavan vs Antrim

It’s been a real season of two halves for Antrim, who started the league in great form but have now lost three games in a row and would surely be worrying about the drop if the season was only a game or two longer. Cavan haven’t exactly pulled up any trees at any level but they have been moderately competitive throughout the year and their under-21 footballers are certainly leading the way in the county.

Antrim manager Liam Bradley made it clear how seriously – or not – he was taking the fixture when he named a team that went very deep into his panel. Some of these youngsters have a point to prove, but Cavan have a season to save, and they should be capable of doing just that, backboned by their under-21s who continue to go from strength to strength.

NFL Lower Division Recommendations

Galway vs Kildare: Kildare -5pts @ 3/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Louth: Louth +2pts @ 11/10 (general)

Cavan vs Antrim: Cavan @ 5/6 (Stan James/Betpack)

The plethora of action taking place this week means that we can afford to be a lot more selective when it comes to our lower division betting choices, so we’ll start in a somewhat unlikely place – Brewster Park, Enniskillen.

Fermanagh vs Wicklow

Home manager Peter Canavan has rung the changes after a facile win over Kilkenny in the last round and he will no doubt also be acutely aware of the county’s Ulster under-21 championship match against Tyrone, taking place this coming Wednesday evening. He’s drafted in some proven performers like Niall Bogue, Ryan McCloskey and Barry Mulrone and unquestionably things in the Erne County are going well. However they are not free scorers – running up a ridiculous total against Kilkenny proves nothing – and a four point handicap from Ladbrokes is very dismissive with respect to Wicklow, who were badly stung by Waterford last time out. The Garden County suffered a huge setback in that fixture but they remain a capable division four team and while Fermanagh are worthy favourites, four points is just too big a handicap here.

Sligo vs Longford

Sligo suffered a huge blow to their promotion hopes last weekend against Cavan and now they are all out of second chances if they want to play division two football in 2013, while the prospect of relegation is starting to look like a real threat. They still have one of the best defensive units in the country and some good scoring forwards, but Longford are a much more balanced team and at odds against, also with the Magic Sign, they make plenty of appeal this week. Their two point winning margin over Roscommon would have been worthy form by itself, but they deserved to win by a few more and until they stumble, they remain the form team and one to keep onside.

Kildare vs Derry

What we saw in Páirc Tailteann last Saturday night was much more like the real Kildare team and the Lily White supporters are understandably in much better form after that result, albeit still up in arms over the exit of their highly rated under-21 team last Wednesday. Eighteen scores is a great return over seventy minutes of football but conceding 2-11 will also be a worry. Derry also bounced back to form with a comfortable win over Monaghan and while they might not have the same long term upside as the Kildare men, they still represent a stiff test this week. Paddy Power go 9/2 about Derry winning by 1-3 points and if the Oak Leaf men do pull off an upset, it’s very likely to be by a narrow margin and we were all set to make this recommendation until news of Mark Lynch’s wedding and Gerard O’Kane’s injury broke. If you’re going to bet Derry, take the 9/2 about a short priced win, but instead we’ll side with Kildare to do just about enough and for there to be plenty of scores in the process.

NFL Round 4 Recommendations

Fermanagh vs Wicklow: Wicklow +4pts @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes)

Sligo vs Longford: Longford @ 5/4 (Ladbrokes)

Kildare vs Derry: Kildare by 3-4 points @ 9/2 (Bet365)

Kildare vs Derry: Over 29.5 points @ 1/1 (Ladbrokes)

The big Leinster clash in division two of the Allianz League catches the eye of the TV cameras this week as Setanta Sports head to Navan for tonight’s battle between Kildare and Meath at Páirc Tailteann. Kildare enjoyed a comprehensive win over the Royal County in last year’s Leinster football championship, but Seamus McEnaney has enjoyed a good start to this year’s league campaign with wins over Monaghan and Westmeath, while Kildare are languishing at the bottom of the table without a win so far. Elsewhere, Galway travel to Westmeath, Monaghan play Derry in a crunch all-Ulster tie and Tyrone travel to Louth in a game where two unbeaten sides play for a place in the promotion places.

Meath vs Kildare

We know Kildare will start to improve at some stage, but the question is when? Kieran McGeeney’s men enjoyed a similarly slow start to last year’s league campaign but they’ve left themselves under real pressure now and a reverse here in this fixture would make relegation a real possibility. A county with real designs on provincial and All Ireland success can ill afford to be playing football in division three – unless your province is Connacht – and logic dictates that sheer need will push them over the line here. Still, Meath have a great home record in the league and the shrewd betting play could be backing the green flags to stay rooted, with neither inside line looking good at the moment.

Derry vs Monaghan

At the start of the season Derry were considered among the front runners for promotion, while Monaghan were widely regarded as the most likely county to get sucked in if Westmeath or Louth somehow escaped the drop zone. In the first week of competition Derry slipped up against a dangerous Galway team and Monaghan lost to Meath. Fast forward to week two and Derry get hammered by Tyrone (could happen to anyone) while Monaghan win a physical battle with Kildare, and somehow Derry are now 10/11 at home? The betting here is a gross over-reaction to one week of play and at Celtic Park, Derry are well worthy of support.

Louth vs Tyrone

On the basis of their form so far, Tyrone are entitled to be surging up the betting for the All Ireland, never mind the national football league. The Red Hand County have been devastating against both Kildare and Derry, though Louth too will be happy with their haul of three points from games against Westmeath and Galway. The Wee men re-introduce Michael Fanning who has returned from Australia and he slots into the centre back berth, with Jamie Carr returning to corner back, bolstering the full back line. Louth’s optimism will be lifted even further by the news that Monaghan now have to travel to Drogheda, further enhancing their promotion prospects. Louth are not to be opposed lightly right now, much less at home with a three point start.

Westmeath vs Galway

Logic and reason dictates that when you can bet on a home team in a league match with a six point start, you absolutely should do so. Hills go 5/6 about Westmeath plus six points here and after Galway scored a mere nine times against Louth in their previous outing, they don’t look like good bets to clear a large spread.

The issue however is that Westmeath are simply woeful at the moment and supporters are much more interested in their under-21 footballers and the fortunes of Garrycastle than in the county senior team, of whom very little is expected. John Heslin walks straight back into the team after returning from Australia and he’ll add plenty of power to the midfield sector, but right now things aren’t going well for the Lake County and the best way to bet this game is to take a big price about Galway really going to town. Things are coming to a head soon in the midlands, and it’s hard to see Pat Flanagan turning things around in the meantime.

NFL Division 2 Recommendations

Meath vs Kildare: No Goalscorer @ 4/1 (Powers, Hills, Ladbrokes)

Derry vs Monaghan: Derry to win @ 10/11 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

Westmeath vs Galway: Galway to win by 10-12 points @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

A full card of fixtures in the lower divisions of the Allianz National Football League gives us plenty of interesting betting opportunities to go with the division one and hurling ties already covered here on Starbets. Many of the games look to be reasonably well measured by the bookmaking community, but one or two could offer a chance to secure real value before some of tomorrow’s games.

Division 2 – Monaghan vs Kildare

After being installed as one of the favourites to win the division in the early stages, Kildare are suddenly under pressure after losing their first round fixture to Tyrone. Perhaps more worrying from a Kildare perspective was the way that Tyrone outfought and outbattled them in Croke Park, starving the Kildare forwards of opportunities. Normally criticism of the Lily Whites stems from their profligacy in front of goal, but they didn’t even get the chance to spurn a lot of chances as Tyrone monopolised possession, particularly in the second half.

Now that Seánie Johnston has started training in the county, the forwards currently in McGeeney’s squad must be well aware that they need to start performing very soon – and this week Monaghan could feel the backlash. The Farney men were very disappointing in Navan in their first outing and while they did create a lot of chances, the absence of natural finishers cost them. Take Kildare to cover the handicap here.

Division 3 – Sligo vs Wexford

Sligo were by far the most impressive of the four losing away sides in this division last week, while Wexford took full advantage of some very poor defending to notch four goals against Cavan at Wexford Park. Manager Jason Ryan and his players will make the long trip to the north west tomorrow and they’ll know that there is no way they’ll get that kind of charity from one of the most under-rated defensive units in the league, led by tenacious corner backs Ross Donovan and Charlie Harrison. Take Sligo to edge the game, and also this could be a good game to go low on the total goals market as well.

Division 4 – Fermanagh vs Clare

Never underestimate the value of getting a good game under your belt. Fermanagh may have been rejuvenated by the arrival of Peter Canavan, but the postponement of their clash with London was a disappointing outcome for the Erne County and they should have their hands full with a sharp Clare team this week. Clare look much stronger with their Kilmurry-Ibrickane players on board and last weekend’s outing against Waterford will stand to them. The long trip won’t make life easy but this is still a game where it makes much more sense to side with the visitors, at least with the three point head start.

Allianz NFL Recommendations

Monaghan vs Kildare: Kildare -2 @ 5/4 (BetVictor)

Sligo vs Wexford: Sligo @ 5/4 (Boylesports), Under 1.5 goals @ 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

Fermanagh vs Clare: Clare + 3 @ 10/11 (Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports)

For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

DCU’s threat to pull out of the O’Byrne Cup final, though understandable, has led to a re-opening of the debate on the participation of third level teams at this stage of the competition. The very real prospect of a walkover in the final of the Leinster competition would have given nightmares to the marketing department of new sponsors Bórd na Móna, while the bumper crowds in Newbridge the last few weeks undoubtedly focussed the minds too since nobody would have wanted to pass up the opportunity to have 5,000 people pay in to see the game. DCU could have been forgiven for wanting to pull out since after all, the Sigerson Cup is their main aim and the O’Byrne Cup would have been scant consolation if they slipped up against Cork IT in the first round, but the bigger picture was very much taken in here.

The decision to defer that first round tie until Tuesday week has allowed DCU to put in a more meaningful effort on Sunday, and undoubtedly that will bring a lot of the crowds back. Of course it won’t matter a jot, since Kildare are flying right now and will cruise home in this match. Until you see Kildare up close, it’s hard to conceive of quite how fit they are for this time of year. Cutting through DIT and Offaly for a short cut was not that much of a surprise, but they were very dominant against Dublin too and while Dublin undoubtedly had a lot of winter celebration to get out of the system, they won’t have enjoyed losing so comprehensively to one of their main rivals for the All Ireland this year. Paddy Power bookmakers are offering even money about Kildare minus three points on their handicap betting market and that definitely constitutes our first recommendation of the week.

Cork take on Tipperary in a McGrath Cup final that won’t keep the turnstile operators too busy, and while the 1/4 odds look suspiciously like buying money, our gut instinct here is to hold fire. There isn’t any particular basis to this logic, after all Cork’s reserves are an excellent group of footballers – many of them were starting for the county by the time last year’s All Ireland quarter final came around. Nonetheless there’s something unsettling about betting on teams to win at 1/4 in preseason games where the will to win as a team will be a distant second to the will to impress the manager as individuals.

NUIG didn’t get their Sigerson Cup tie postponed and they will host St Mary’s as planned on Wednesday of next week. The incentive of the trip to New York in the Autumn is always enough to keep teams honest here and even though there was no reward for opposing Mayo last week, at the 4/1 on offer from Powers, it’s hard not to do so again. Mayo are going through the motions at this stage and their trip to Portlaoise in the first round of the league is looming large on their schedule. Win and they set themselves up for a real run at a league title, lose and relegation will be an issue almost immediately. 4/1 is generous enough to warrant a small, speculative punt here.

Up north, Tyrone and Derry meet for another renewal of one of the most keenly contested rivalries in Gaelic Football. The vast majority of the Derry football team come from right beside the Tyrone border and if there was only a tin mug at stake, there would be no half measures for Derry in this game. This will be a low scoring, battle of attrition and Derry are on the back of three wins in succession against their neighbours. Ladbrokes and Boyles are each giving us odds against about a Derry win and the draw thrown in for good measure – that’s certainly good enough for us. It’s not that Tyrone will lie down – God knows the competitiveness of Tyrone football has been the subject of much discussion this week – but in this tie, Derry might have a slight edge, both on form and on desire.

Weekend Football Recommendations:

O’Byrne Cup Final: Kildare (-3pts) to beat DCU @ even money (Powers)

FBD League Final: NUIG to beat Mayo @ 4/1 (Powers)

McKenna Cup Final: Derry (+1pt) to beat Tyrone @ 11/10 (Boyles, Ladbrokes)

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