For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

DCU’s threat to pull out of the O’Byrne Cup final, though understandable, has led to a re-opening of the debate on the participation of third level teams at this stage of the competition. The very real prospect of a walkover in the final of the Leinster competition would have given nightmares to the marketing department of new sponsors Bórd na Móna, while the bumper crowds in Newbridge the last few weeks undoubtedly focussed the minds too since nobody would have wanted to pass up the opportunity to have 5,000 people pay in to see the game. DCU could have been forgiven for wanting to pull out since after all, the Sigerson Cup is their main aim and the O’Byrne Cup would have been scant consolation if they slipped up against Cork IT in the first round, but the bigger picture was very much taken in here.

The decision to defer that first round tie until Tuesday week has allowed DCU to put in a more meaningful effort on Sunday, and undoubtedly that will bring a lot of the crowds back. Of course it won’t matter a jot, since Kildare are flying right now and will cruise home in this match. Until you see Kildare up close, it’s hard to conceive of quite how fit they are for this time of year. Cutting through DIT and Offaly for a short cut was not that much of a surprise, but they were very dominant against Dublin too and while Dublin undoubtedly had a lot of winter celebration to get out of the system, they won’t have enjoyed losing so comprehensively to one of their main rivals for the All Ireland this year. Paddy Power bookmakers are offering even money about Kildare minus three points on their handicap betting market and that definitely constitutes our first recommendation of the week.

Cork take on Tipperary in a McGrath Cup final that won’t keep the turnstile operators too busy, and while the 1/4 odds look suspiciously like buying money, our gut instinct here is to hold fire. There isn’t any particular basis to this logic, after all Cork’s reserves are an excellent group of footballers – many of them were starting for the county by the time last year’s All Ireland quarter final came around. Nonetheless there’s something unsettling about betting on teams to win at 1/4 in preseason games where the will to win as a team will be a distant second to the will to impress the manager as individuals.

NUIG didn’t get their Sigerson Cup tie postponed and they will host St Mary’s as planned on Wednesday of next week. The incentive of the trip to New York in the Autumn is always enough to keep teams honest here and even though there was no reward for opposing Mayo last week, at the 4/1 on offer from Powers, it’s hard not to do so again. Mayo are going through the motions at this stage and their trip to Portlaoise in the first round of the league is looming large on their schedule. Win and they set themselves up for a real run at a league title, lose and relegation will be an issue almost immediately. 4/1 is generous enough to warrant a small, speculative punt here.

Up north, Tyrone and Derry meet for another renewal of one of the most keenly contested rivalries in Gaelic Football. The vast majority of the Derry football team come from right beside the Tyrone border and if there was only a tin mug at stake, there would be no half measures for Derry in this game. This will be a low scoring, battle of attrition and Derry are on the back of three wins in succession against their neighbours. Ladbrokes and Boyles are each giving us odds against about a Derry win and the draw thrown in for good measure – that’s certainly good enough for us. It’s not that Tyrone will lie down – God knows the competitiveness of Tyrone football has been the subject of much discussion this week – but in this tie, Derry might have a slight edge, both on form and on desire.

Weekend Football Recommendations:

O’Byrne Cup Final: Kildare (-3pts) to beat DCU @ even money (Powers)

FBD League Final: NUIG to beat Mayo @ 4/1 (Powers)

McKenna Cup Final: Derry (+1pt) to beat Tyrone @ 11/10 (Boyles, Ladbrokes)

The big market move this weekend has definitely been for the Tipperary footballers, who have gone from generally being offeres as 6/4 shots into 4/5 and 10/11 with most bookmakers. Paddy Power have really ducked the Premier men, going 4/7 about a home win in the McGrath Cup semi-final.

One thing is for certain, the Tipperary management will be hopeful of a much stiffer challenge this weekend because warm up games against Limerick IT and Waterford IT are no preparation for playing in the national football league. Those two colleges are way out of their depth in the McGrath Cup, even though Limerick IT did play some good football in their first round match. If UCC play up to their potential then we’d be recommending siding with the skull and crossbones wearers at odds against, however with the first round of the Sigerson Cup looming ever closer and little or nothing at stake, the worry here is that this flow of money emanates from people with an inside track who know that UCC will be taking their foot off the gas this week. If you’re one of those, then by all means pile in, but bookmakers shops all over Ireland are littered with people who have lighter wallets on account of following money, with no real insight as to why they were doing so. This column isn’t about to make that same mistake.

Now that the finallists of the FBD league competition have been decided, there is little or nothing at stake out west this week, so keeping stakes very low is again the correct course. Roscommon might be capable of upping their game for a battle with neighbours Mayo and 10/3 from Powers and Hills is probably worth a small, speculative wager, but only because of the big price. Based on the form shown so far, Mayo would win this one playing in ice skates, but form is temporary any time, all the more so in January.

Up north the bookmakers are probably on the ball with regard to their pricing, though 5/2 about Fermanagh knocking off Tyrone (Powers) will get some small level of support. Tyrone have much bigger fish to fry while Peter Canavan won’t want to be outdone by his home county men twice in a week, but will to win needs to be augmented by the ability to do so. We’re not quite sure if Fermanagh have enough of the latter quality, though they are brimming with the former.

Finally we look to Leinster, where Meath are favoured to overcome DCU in Navan and the Newbridge stewards are preparing themselves for a full house (at least if reckoned by their new, lower official capacity) when the Dubs come to town for the other O’Byrne Cup semi final. This column already has an outright bet on Kildare on the record so there’s no need to post up another, but everything we argued a week ago holds true. Kildare are playing well, flying fit and crucially, though Dublin would like to beat Kildare, Kildare need to beat Dublin. They won’t meet them in the league this year so this will be a crucial statement of intent in advance of the Leinster championship. Both managers will relish the opportunity to play such a fiercely competitive game this early in the year and this fixture will undoubtedly stand to both counties in advance of the big double header in Croke Park to open the league in two weeks’ time, but for now Kildare look better poised to come through what should be a very enjoyable game.

Ladbrokes are 4/5 about these teams combining for more than 28.5 points in Newbridge – with mild weather forecast and a high pace almost certain, that’s good enough for us for today.

Weekend GAA Recommendations

Mayo vs Roscommon: Roscommon to win @ 10/3 (Powers, Hills)

Kildare vs Dublin: Over 28.5 points @ 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

Now that the dust has settled on the first round of the O’Byrne Cup, now is a good time to step back and assess the first round games with a view to isolating any potential value in the antepost betting market at this stage of the competition.

Of the eight teams remaining, it seems easy enough to draw a line through three of the remaining sides at the very least. Longford laboured to a win over a very mediocre Athlone IT team and while they’ll give DCU plenty to think about this Sunday, that still represents a huge step up in class for them. Of course the county sides are the ones who should find the most improvement between rounds at this time of year since they are starting from a lower base in terms of fitness and cohesion, but even so any side worth their salt in this competition should have got through the challenge of a college like Athlone IT , who are a long way down the betting list for the Sigerson Cup, with a lot more to spare.

The football in O’Connor Park between Offaly and Westmeath was wholehearted, but both sides showed plenty of ring rust and the victors here will almost certainly exit the race for the O’Byrne cup this Sunday in Newbridge. Stand in manager James Stewart is entitled to be happy with how his team performed, but you won’t win too many games only scoring nine times and it wasn’t as if his players created many more chances – largely speaking their full forward line was very isolated and 3-6 was a very rich harvest off little or no supply to the inside men, including last year’s goalkeeper Alan Mulhall.

UCD’s win in Crettyard over Laois looks like good form on paper, but they were heavily dependent on Donie Kingston and that was against a woefully understrength Laois team. They too will find the going much tougher this week and unless they have some heavyweight players to spring for their match in Parnell Park this Saturday, they should be on their way out.

Of the five remaining teams, Louth will probably feel that they have a good chance after coming so close last year and God knows it’s difficult to go broke backing Louth to win football matches before Easter, but even so the psychological hold that Meath have over Louth is one of the most powerful in the GAA and even though Meath were far from spectacular in overcoming Wexford, even at 14/1 Louth make no appeal. While we wouldn’t dismiss them entirely as potential winners, price determines value and they offer little or none at this level.

Meath themselves would have to show a lot more in the next few weeks to merit serious consideration but even so at 5/1 with Ladbrokes, we’d be slow to write them off completely. Dublin and Kildare are both on the other side of the draw and there would be little to call between the Royals and DCU, who are also best priced at 5/1 with Paddy Power. DCU’s win over Wicklow was somewhat controversial, in as much as any O’Byrne Cup match could ever be controversial, and the Garden County felt a little bit hard done by not to at least have been given a chance at extra time in that fixture. Nonetheless such a tough tie will undoubtedly stand to the North Dublin students and they look well poised to continue their good run in Pearse Park this Sunday.

The Dubs used a lot more of their proven footballers than they would normally employ in this competition for their battle with Carlow at Dr Cullen Park, and that was undoubtedly a key factor in why they weren’t relegated to the O’Byrne Shield for the second year in succession. Pat Gilroy’s ability to spring a reliable scorer like Mossy Quinn from the bench was the crucial deciding factor in one of the most entertaining matches that took place last weekend and certainly there is no shortage of depth in Dublin football right now. Subsequently, picking heavily from the fringes of the panel is unlikely to weaken their side too severely.

However in terms of eye catching football, Kildare were by some distance the best side on display in Leinster last week. The nature of Kieran McGeeney’s system is such that it draws heavily on athleticism and power, but doesn’t necessarily ask players to be gifted or inventive on a consistent basis. Because of this and the approach in Kildare which asks the junior and under-21 sides to apply the same tactical strategy, McGeeney is able to slot in any number of footballers into his system and know that they’ll work well within his team and probably overpower their opponents. DIT are clearly not at the same level as they were in 2011, but even so they still possess several decent footballers who will expect to start for their counties in the summer and the manner with which Kildare swatted them aside was hugely impressive.

Kildare should saunter through the challenge of Offaly this week and while playing Dublin will be a much tougher test if that match comes to pass, overall they look like very solid 5/2 shots right now with Ladbrokes. Indeed it’s notable that Powers went 5/2 on Monday, but have since cut the price into 2/1, presumably due to bets being laid at the larger odds.

O’Byrne Cup Antepost Recommendations

Kildare to win @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)

DCU to win @ 5/1 (Powers)

And so, we come to the race for Christmas number one – the real Christmas number one. In the race to become the leading Gaelic Football county in Ireland, there’s no shortcut available, such as going through a reality TV show – it takes years of hard, painstaking work and as Donegal manager Jim McGuinness will certainly testify, there’s no point in playing to impress the paying public!

As always, counties are listed in order of Starbets ranking, but with the bookmaker ranking in brackets, calculated based on an aggregate of all 2012 All Ireland odds, followed by our prediction as to whether the county will be moving up or down the chart in 2012.

8. Tyrone (6 – Disimprovement)

Your columnist was sorely tempted to court publicity by ranking the Red Hand men outside of the top ten, and based on 2011 alone, we could have stood over that view. Their failure to make a real push in division two was worrying, particularly the dropped point against a very mediocre Meath team when anything less than a win was likely to prove fatal. However it would be foolish to ignore the incredible achievements of this county over the past decade. However while they should go well in the league this year, we expect them to be found out in the championship. Dublin and Donegal each exposed weaknesses in their team and tactics and while Mickey Harte is beyond criticism, it could be fast approaching the time when the players need to hear a new voice at the helm.

7. Down (8 – Disimprovement)

2011 was a disappointing year and the news that talisman Martin Clarke, along with their incredible young prospect Caolan Mooney, will be playing AFL instead of NFL next spring is deeply worrying from a Down perspective. Modern defences appear to have figured out how to counteract the threat of Benny Coulter and incredibly, the question marks surrounding the spine of the defence and indeed the midfield remain. Their scoring power gives them a chance against anybody, particularly in Croke Park, if they get back there. That’s a big “if” though.

6. Donegal (7 – Slight improvement)

Firstly, ranking Donegal outside of the top four even though they made the semi-finals may seem harsh, but their 2011 approach will only get you so far against good teams and right now, they would be underdogs, with this odds compiler at least, against any of the five counties yet to be named in this column. However the reason we think they could be destined to climb the ladder is the fact that they will be acutely aware that they need to evolve their approach and Jim McGuinness has both the mental acuity to recognise this and the quality of player available to implement a variety of different approaches. His players will follow him wherever he leads them, and to see how strongly he reacted to Kevin Cassidy’s part in Declan Bogue’s book, even though nothing was said, was instructive. Even more instructive was how none of the other Donegal players spoke out on behalf of Cassidy. They want to be part of Donegal’s footballing future, and rightly so.

5. Mayo (5 – Slight disimprovement)

After they laboured under John O’Mahony and struggled to deliver the success that the county craves, Ballintubber’s James Horan had a very promising first season in charge of Mayo, guiding his team to a Connacht title and a hugely significant All Ireland quarter final win over Cork. That result over the then All Ireland champions illustrated the potential that lies in this group of footballers, but the gulf in class in their All Ireland semi final meeting with Kerry made it very clear how much work remains to be done. As modern midfielders evolve into more mobile, all round footballers, the O’Shea partnership remains something of a throwback to a bygone era. It would a brave man who would bet against the Breaffy men on a tight pitch where the ability to play good contact football is paramount, but if the goal is to beat Dublin and Kerry, one suspects that a makeover will be needed in that section since their immobility would be taken apart against that standard of opponent.

4. Kildare (4 – Improvement)

No team was treated as badly by lady luck in 2011 as the Lily Whites, and on the grounds that the break of the ball evens itself out over time, they clearly have to be well watched in 2012. Kieran McGeeney has complete and utter respect from his players and crucially, he has them implementing a system whereby the success of the system is dependent on their workrate and sticking to the plan, rather than the mercurial talent of a group of individuals. Even John Doyle, the star man of the squad, is being deployed in a more workmanlike role. For as long as they continue to push on, they will continue to improve, and Kildare should come very, very close to All Ireland honours in 2012. The danger for the county is that in every sense, they are burning a lot of fuel. Players cannot continue to put in this level of effort for too long, while equally their county board can ill afford to continue to underwrite one of if not the most expensive county team to run in Ireland. When their star does burn out we suspect it will crash spectacularly, but in the meantime they continue to ascend.

3. Cork (3 – Slight improvement)

The Rebels appeared to regress in 2011, losing in Munster yet again and coughing up an early lead to go out somewhat pitifully against Mayo. As such they had to be downgraded from their top spot, however it would be easy to forget the horrendous injury list that Conor Counihan had to deal with. You can’t lose so many players of that calibre, mainly in the one sector of the field, and expect to be unaffected. With a full strength panel to choose from in 2012, they should find themselves right there in contention yet again.

2. Kerry (1 – Disimprovement)

Judging Kerry based on their 2012 showing is difficult, in that they did what they had to do in the championship, but until the final, they never really had to go into their higher gears. They were fortunate to get what was a relatively kind run to the final, but they took full advantage and there was no question but that Dublin got what decisions were going in that Croke Park decider. Nonetheless the issue of their ageing panel remains a very real one and the possibility that Colm Cooper will be denied a necessary operation until after March because of his involvement with Dr Crokes is far from ideal. Their younger footballers don’t seem to be of the necessary calibre so we’re going to stick our necks out and say that Kerry will slip a little in 2012.

1. Dublin (2 – No change)

It may seem lazy to just put the winners in the number one slot, but for several years now, people have said that Dublin lacked the ability to deliver on the really big day. This year they rode their luck a little certainly, but they also played some very good football when they needed to and to rescue the All Ireland final as they did was very impressive. The self belief that they will take from that can only be beneficial and with that in mind, no one county looks better poised to take the biggest prizes in the game in 2012.

So, hot on the heels after our initial look at the newly formed betting market for Division 1 of the National Football League, let’s step down the order and take our first look at division two and the counties hoping to earn a shot at the big guns in 2013. Traditionally the second and third tier contests are the most competitive, however 2010 was a little different in that Antrim, Sligo and Meath were very much cut adrift at the bottom, playing noticeably poorer than the other five teams in the division two race. Meath were the county who managed to escape making the drop out of that trio and they will enjoy plenty of local derbies next year with games to come against Kildare, Westmeath, Louth and Monaghan, home county of manager Seamus McEnaney.

At the other end of the table last year it was Laois and Donegal who secured promotion, meaning that league heavyweights Kildare, Derry and Tyrone must spend another year at this level. Boylesports and Ladbrokes both make Tyrone and Kildare joint favourites at 3/1 each, while Hills and Powers both side with the Ulster men at 5/2 and go 7/2 Kildare. Despite the plethora of retirements out of the Tyrone squad that we’ve seen over the last few months, a quick look at the fixture list illustrates why Powers and Hills might be the ones with the right idea here.

Tyrone are down for four home games while Kildare have only three, but in fact this advantage is even more skewed since one of Kildare’s home games is their first round fixture against Tyrone, which has been moved to neutral Croke Park. Kieran McGeeney is likely to spend the earlier part of the season putting his squad through intense physical preparation and they won’t be looking to peak too early, while Mickey Harte is very keen on competing against the best teams in the league and would relish the opportunity to get back up into the top flight. It’s not that his relatively fresh squad will be spared tough training, but he’ll still be chasing every league point on offer. If they can get a result against Kildare in the first round they’ll be hard stopped, while even if they don’t, they’ll have four home games and a trip to Louth still to come, five games where they’ll be favoured to win.

Meath’s away form in the league is too shocking to trust, while Louth and Westmeath simply don’t have the personnel to win five games in this company. Westmeath did play division one football only a couple of years ago however they were badly exposed at that level and while they deserved their promotion from division three last year, neither they nor Louth could argue that they were significantly better than any of the other teams in what was a ridiculously evenly matched division.

The wild card here is Galway. The Galway footballers are beginning to mimic their hurlers in that they’ve enjoyed plenty of underage success, they have a thriving club scene that would rival any county in Ireland, and yet they’ve flattered to deceive when it comes to championship football. This columnist has shown faith in them a few times only to be severely punished for doing so, however lloking at all the factors, we’d still be slow to oppose them next year. Whether that’s a fair opinion or failing to learn from our mistakes remains to be seen. The appointment of Alan Mulholland is a nice change of pace after two years of different outside managers and they certainly can’t argue with a schedule that gave them four home games and brings their three main rivals in the betting – Tyrone, Kildare and Meath – west of the Shannon to either Tuam or Pearse Stadium.

Memories of previous bad bets will be a tough barrier for this columnist to overcome before we recommend them again, however they are well worth watching with interest in preseason competition.

Monaghan and Derry were also only given three home games, but the Oak Leaf men won’t be too worried about making the short spin down the A505 towards Healy Park and they’ll also be confident that if they put themselves in a position where they need a result in Mullingar in the last round to secure promotion, that’s well within their grasp. Paddy Power are biggest at 7/1 Derry and they will surely see plenty of interest in a county that has played some of their best football in the league in recent years. Here at Starbets we’d like to be a lot more certain of how close to full strength they’ll be before getting stuck in, but it’s the kind of price that is well worth putting in the “maybe” column, to be re-examined in January.

Mayo’s misfortune to be drawn against Cork in the All Ireland quarter final means that it is now long odds on that the five Connacht counties will, for the second year in succession, make their exit from the championship without having beaten a single team from outside Connacht between them. Unquestionably the western province is at a low ebb, perhaps as low as it has ever been.

However there are also signs that up north, the competitiveness of the Ulster championship is once again masking the fact that in terms of quality, Ulster football has not only slipped from the top of the tree, it is hugely lacking in quality and real innovation.

This is not meant as another pop at the defensive tactics that are traditionally associated with northern football teams, since every intercounty team uses some form of defensive support nowadays so associating such play with Ulster only would be unfair, but instead it reflects the simple fact that the Ulster teams are no longer the sides that everyone wants to avoid when the qualifier draws take place.

This year Monaghan, Cavan and Fermanagh all departed the championship in their first match against non-Ulster opposition, while Armagh and Down could very easily have done so too – and neither of those sides redeemed themselves subsequently. Antrim secured a home win over a demoralised Westmeath team, before limping over Carlow and crashing out to Down, while Derry were a distant second best against Kildare, albeit after only having six days to deal with the trauma of their Ulster Final defeat.

Donegal have yet to be tested outside of Ulster, while Tyrone’s only conquest south of their own province was Longford, who caused them real problems for long spells of that qualifier fixture in Pearse Park. While Longford are an improved and competitive force in 2011 under Glen Ryan, they still do not represent the kind of opposition that Tyrone will need to be able to match and overcome in the coming weeks. Unquestionably, those two teams are a cut above their Ulster rivals, but there is a real danger of both sides being over-rated based on an inflated view of their performances so far.

Both Tony Davis and Joe Brolly, in between their hugely entertaining squabble centred on the topic of the Cork footballers, suggested that Donegal would beat Kildare this Saturday evening in Croke Park. Truly this game will be the acid test of Ulster’s real standing at the moment.

Neither side has the bedrock of confidence that comes from winning an All Ireland title, neither side has a wide array of classy scoring forwards, but both management teams have created a system that suits the tools at their disposal and the clash of those two very different styles will make for some very interesting viewing.

McGeeney’s high octane system, with shots being taken on the move, appears to be custom made to counteract deep lying half forwards, and while Jim McGuinness is a fine innovator who will undoubtedly have analysed Kildare’s play in detail by next weekend, it’s hard to escape the notion that Donegal’s customary deep alignment will be inviting trouble since it will be asking players like Emmet Bolton and John Doyle to attack from deep positions. The presence of Tomás Ó’Connor offers the option to bypass much of the traffic by way of long deliveries, while Kildare’s players are well versed in the art of kicking under pressure and don’t get phased by a bout of wides.

The central tenet of Kildare football this year appears to this writer to be a fierce determination to ensure that the ball never gets turned over with too many Kildare men committed too far forward. The presence of Michael Murphy and Colm McFadden in the Donegal attack is all very well but neither of those players thrive in traffic, despite their size, and Donegal will need to figure out a way to commit Kildare men forward – an art much easier said than done.

So far all Tyrone have proved is that they are well capable of putting most Ulster teams to the sword – but then any decent county is capable of putting many Ulster teams to the sword these days, it’s perhaps not the endorsement that it once was. Kildare at 4/7 look like the better bet and could be more so when the inevitable two point handicap is released.

The bookies may have endured a bloodbath last weekend after the favourites went down the card of provincial and qualifier football ties, but Ladbrokes have come out fighting this week with a few generous offers on the favourites for this weekend’s six intercounty senior fixtures.

The headline fixtures may be taking place on Sunday, games this column will revisit later in the week, however there is a strong case to be made for a treble of Cork, Kildare and Wexford, a treble that pays out a little over 7/5 at the odds currently on offer from Ladbrokes. Boarding the multiple train might seem like a delayed reaction after last week, but each of these three favourites look very well placed to secure their place in the last eight of the All Ireland race this week.

The easiest and most straightforward call is Kildare to beat Derry. Derry’s lack of creative spark in the absence of Eoghan Bradley was exposed last weekend and with Kildare motoring nicely through the qualifiers, they should have the measure of their northern counterparts. They were the better side when these two teams met last year and this time around they appear to have stepped up to another level.

Kildare are the much more familiar side with Croke Park, while Derry’s inability to create scores should see this match resolved very early. Kildare broke from their usual pattern of playing twice as well in the second half last week, but even at 70% pace they should have enough for a Derry team who suffered a real setback last week. The wild card here is if Derry can get Conleth Gilligan more involved, as the experienced corner forward was wasted roaming out around the field, but even then the Lillies should have more than enough answers.

Wexford and Limerick would probably have been a relatively even match if priced this time last year, however Limerick’s presence in the fourth round of the qualifiers owes a lot to a very soft draw and they should be overmatched this week. Against both Waterford and Offaly the Treaty men really struggled to win clean ball at midfield, but they compensated for this with an all out defence that absorbed a lot of pressure before hitting teams on the break with good pacey possession football up along the field.

The tactical naivety of Offaly and Waterford played into Maurice Horan’s hands, however he won’t get things all his own way this week as Jason Ryan is a very shrewd operator who will devise a strategy to minimise the space offered to Ger Collins and Ian Ryan. Players like Ben Brosnan and Ciarán Lyng are well able to engineer space in a crowded defence and they’ll draw plenty of frees, enough to keep the scoreboard ticking over and to ensure that Limerick don’t have a big lead to defend.

Not for the first time this season in a crucial game, Waterford shot themselves in the foot with a red card at just the wrong time against Limerick and provided Wexford’s discipline holds up, they should have more than enough in the tank to get through this Portlaoise battle.

Finally 2/5 about Cork may seem like a short price when one allows for the solitary point that was between these two sides in last year’s All Ireland final, but any All Ireland final is simply about getting over the line and last year Cork were very much in a weaker place mentally, simply because they didn’t have those Celtic Crosses in their bedroom lockers at home.

Down felt empowered by Croke Park, as they always do, while Cork needed to put that All Ireland title on the record to shake off the reputation of Croke Park chokers. This year the Rebels have played some very good football both in the league and the championship with that monkey off their backs, with the exception of a bad half an hour in Tralee, and while they’ll still need a win over Kerry in Croke Park to really lay their demons to rest, they will have no such baggage against Down.

The Ulster men haven’t yet caught fire in this championship, largely because they haven’t had to, but they’ve also found themselves under real pressure from teams like Leitrim and Clare. Even Antrim matched them for long spells, but just came undone in a short goal spree during the second half. Croke Park will again seem like a home from home for the Down men, but there are just too many areas of the field where Cork should have the advantage this week and they should bring home the treble with a couple of points to spare.

The football qualifiers continue to come think and fast, with the eight counties in action this weekend beginning to realise that there could very soon be some light at the end of the tunnel. Already half the participating teams have departed the race for the Sam Maguire Cup, and one more victory will leave any of those remaining, who recently felt like their dreams were dashed, tantalisingly close to Croke Park. For some, it’s still hard to imagine them playing in the last eight of the All Ireland championship, but for others, it’s hard to see them denied.

Down vs Antrim

For long spells of last weekend’s match in Newry, Down struggled to gain real supremacy over Leitrim and they even looked like they could have been in danger of losing the match at times. That they still won by eight points is an indication of the class that there is in the red and black jerseys, while in Casement Park Antrim were extremely fortunate to come through against Carlow – or indeed Carlow were extremely unfortunate, from the point of view of this column, which recommended them at 5/1.

The local derby element will come into play to a certain extent, but even allowing for this, Antrim look overmatched here. Liam Bradley is unlikely to start without Paddy Cunningham this week but even if Cunningham plays and plays well, there simply aren’t enough free scorers in that Antrim forward line. Down should relish the big pitch in Casement Park and after two warnings now, they should be on their toes. 10/11 about Down minus four is a decent bet, but Ladbrokes are also offering 7/4 about Down to score over 1.5 goals. In ten league and championship games this year, only Meath have failed to find the net against the Saffrons and with Down’s attacking talent, raising two green flags is a very realistic prospect.

Wicklow vs Armagh

Hands up time here – this column definitely did not see that coming. Wicklow (and indeed the bookmakers, who would have cheered the demise of countless multiple bets) were blessed that Seán Furlong’s normal time goal was allowed after a questionable amount of steps, while his extra time strike also came after dubious handpass, but even so Armagh will be very worried at the way that Leighton Glynn’s movement and energy really unsettled their full back line, and also how James Stafford and Rory Finn lorded matters at midfield. Their return to Aughrim is a huge boost for Wicklow, but the value of that ground can sometimes be overstated. A field of grass is simply a field of grass and while Aughrim is not the most easily accessible village in Ireland, their venue remains a good open pitch where footballers should thrive.

Given that Armagh have been forewarned now and that Paddy O’Rourke is likely to do a lot better tactically this week, we’ll take the risk of compounding our error by suggesting Armagh minus two points as the best bet.

Limerick vs Waterford

Limerick fully deserved their win over Offaly in the Gaelic Grounds, but as we warned in this column, if Offaly got dragged into a battle, they were always going to come off second best. They needed to get in front and to force Limerick to come out and chase the game, a strategy that went out the window when Ian Ryan and Seamus O’Carroll struck for early goals.

Limerick’s lack of fielding ability will come back to haunt them some other time, but they might still have enough to get through Waterford. However scorelines of 1-17 and 3-13 are very out of character for these teams and bearing in mind how well both sides know each other after playing each other competitively four times in the last 18 months, not to mention a challenge match a fortnight ago, and a low scoring tie could be in prospect. Take under 30.5 points at even money.

Kildare vs Meath

Kildare’s ridiculously good record in the qualifiers continued last week with a crushing victory over Laois, while Meath proved once again that having big names in your forward line is no guarantee of getting plenty of scores. They limped over the line against Galway and their inability to kick points continues to hold them back.

These two sides are operating on completely different levels right now and there is simply no reason why Páirc Tailteann, tradition, or any other factor will compensate for that. Kildare’s very game is built on intensity and they do not know any other way to play – they can win this game and win it well. 1/2 about Kildare on the match betting market is a great odds on bet, but those looking for a big price should take Kildare to win by 7-9 pts at 6/1, and possibly even the 12/1 about a 10-12pt win.

Longford vs Tyrone

Longford might not be a big name in terms of the race for the All Ireland senior football championship, but rest assured Tyrone did not want this fixture at all and a one point win would be readily seized by any Tyrone supporter if it was offered to them right now.

Of course Tyrone have the better players and many people felt that they were the better team in their Ulster semi-final against Donegal. However this time last year they faced an Ulster semi-final against Down, and the contrast between the two games is stark. Against Down, Tyrone got off to a bad start but slowly and inexorably took control of the fixture, suffocating the life out of their opponents. Against Donegal they were the beneficiaries of the good start and with Donegal unable to play free flowing attacking football simply by nature of the way they were lined out, they should have had enough about themselves to close out a three or four point win. Instead they got drawn into a dogfight and came off second best against the younger, hungrier dog.

Now they face a trip to Pearse Park, with Longford in flying form after a big win over their Cavan neighbours, and the whole squad moving freely under Glen Ryan. Seán McCormack has provided a nice alternative threat to Brian Kavanagh in the Longford full forward line, their defence is incredibly tenacious and hugely under-rated, and at home they will fear no-one.

Tyrone still have plenty of know-how and should find a way to win, but they don’t look to have the firepower to blow Longford away. Ladbrokes are standing out in the marketplace with 11/10 about Longford plus four and if they’ve made the effort to draw in money, it seems rude not to respond with a moderate bet.

Armagh vs Wicklow

The national consensus on this fixture is that if it were played in Aughrim, Wicklow would have a real chance. They wouldn’t. Armagh got blindsided by a wonderful Derry performance in the Ulster semi-final but it doesn’t suddenly make them a bad team, while the most significant aspect to Wicklow’s home win over Sligo was the fact that Mick O’Dwyer actually used some substitutes. He can field whoever he likes here, Armagh are operating on a different level and Wicklow’s old style football using Seánie Furlong as a target man will get them nowhere in Armagh. Money buyers could take Armagh/Armagh double result at 1/3, while another option could be 7/4 about Armagh scoring more than 1.5 goals.

Laois vs Kildare

This fixture will undoubtedly be a huge test for the character of this Kildare team as nobody could condemn them for feeling hard done by after their last outing in Croke Park. It would be easy to suggest that the last thing they needed now was a local derby against a resurgent Laois team who would be only too delighted to crush their dreams for the year, however this Kildare team is fuelled by passion, commitment and a ridiculous level of energy and drive. This fixture is actually perfect for them. When the bright lights of Croke Park seems far away, there’s nothing like the pleasure of putting one over on your near neighbours to concentrate the mind and get you through a round of the qualifers and get you a step closer to relevance.

In every championship match they’ve played this year and last, the correct betting play has been waiting until half time and then backing Kildare in running on whatever handicap or match market is available. This could be the game where Kildare finally start the match well. This will be a very well attended game in front of the TV cameras, and with the Mullaghbawn dimension to really spice things up. Kildare/Kildare double result is our recommendation, while this could also be a good time to dabble in Ladbrokes’ “Dream Start” market. 4/1 about Kildare to get the first three scores, while still seething internally at the injustice they suffered.

Meath vs Galway

When the prices for this match were first posted, yours truly raised an eyebrow. Yes Galway were disgracefully bad in their one championship outing this year, and yes, the stock of Connacht football is at an all time low. But still, 5/2 about a bad division one team beating a bad division two side? Hard to fathom.

Then the Galway team was released appeared to contain a lot of positive changes, including the return of Michael Meehan and debuts for a few very talented young footballers. Still 5/2. Then today, the Racing Post Goalpost supplement comes out, and there is a veritable chorus of opinion that Meath should win well?

Time may highlight the flaws in the judgement of your columnist, but right now, it’s hard not to feel like the small boy in the fable of the Emporor’s New Clothes. This Meath team, while heavily laden with individual talent, has done nothing this year to command this type of respect. They beat Louth well, but frankly this column would have been a lot more impressed if they had scored 2-14 than 5-8. This Meath team is not scoring points all year, and only once has scored more than 14 times. They’ve relied on goals to carry them through matches, and that’s a risky strategy.

As for Galway’s problems, well undoubtedly they exist, but too much is being made of their Connacht Semi-Final defeat to Mayo. Yes the standard of football was poor, but they were away from home playing Connacht championship, renewing one of the biggest rivalries in football, with their main attacker out injured and on a truly horrendous day for football. Yes they had a bad day, but the media reaction has been completely overdone. While several players underperformed, Tomás O’Flaharta has the luxury of being able to bring in All Ireland under-21 winners to freshen up the squad, which is a nice option to have.

Meath are probably entitled to be narrow favourites here, but 4/6 would be fair, not 4/9. Ladbrokes are joint best in the market at 5/2 about Galway and while the Tribesmen are the type of team that could decide not to bother and lose badly, if they do take to the field in Páirc Tailteann with a real drive to prove their doubters wrong, they are well capable of a win. That price is way out of line and well worth taking.

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