Now that we’ve covered the intercounty football action this weekend, all that remains is to take a look at the hurling, club and minor action that is also down for decision. In no particular order, here’s a sprinkling of recommendations from the variety of matches taking place all across Ireland.

Minor Football

Both Dublin and Kildare start as prohibitively short priced favourites in the Leinster minor chammpionship this afternoon. Dublin won the Leinster minor league very well, but still will have taken plenty of lessons from a tough final battle with Meath and their round robin draw with Offaly. They look to be going well again, even though it’s an almost entirely new team with only a small handful of players from the 2011 squad still eligible. Longford probably don’t have the players to cause an upset here, but Louth might against an equally well fancied Kildare side.

Louth have struggled at minor level for a long time but they have shown some decent form so far this year and their second half performance against Westmeath looks even better now that the midlanders have gone on to beat Carlow in the qualifiers. Kildare are a very strong team and the Athy pair of David Hyland and Niall Kelly at 6 and 11 respectively are hugely impressive young players, but no group of teenagers can be trusted to play to form all the time, while the large squad in Kildare means that they might be less sure of their best team than some other sides. Boylesports are 9/2 about a Louth win here and that’s enough to justify a small, speculative bet.

Leinster SHC

At the start of the year, punters would have struggled to separate Carlow and Westmeath. Equally, it would have been the view that there was little to call between Laois and Antrim. Those who say that the league is irrelevant need only to look at the betting for today’s games to see that the bookmakers still attach plenty of significance to Spring hurling. Carlow and Antrim went well and so are well fancied, while Laois and Westmeath are very easy to lay.

Antrim should beat Westmath and their price is probably correct, but it’s possible that the market is overestimating the chance of an upset in Dr Cullen Park. Carlow manager Kevin Ryan has come out and claimed that he’s not getting the effort from his players since they won the league – on the one hand there is probably some degree of exaggeration here for the sake of effect, but it’s still not a good sign. Carlow would need to be firing on all cylinders to beat Laois here and it’s odd that there is a disconnect between the match and handicap prices in this fixture – nowhere more than at Ladbrokes, where they are 4/6 about a Laois win and 8/11 Laois minus one on their handicap betting market.

Galway SHC

The relegation battles start this weekend and one of the most intriguing fixtures will be the meeting of Carnmore and Liam Mellows at Athenry tomorrow. It’s unusual in this say and age for teams to be eliminated from a Senior Championship by mid-May, but that’s exactly the situation that these two clubs find themselves in, and picking themselves up to save their senior status is a very different challenge to trying to win a title. Carnmore are a small, close knit club whereas Liam Mellows are a city team, with a bigger pick but perhaps lacking the same solidarity. Neither club has shown any form so far this year – they wouldn’t be in this mess if they had – but if Carnmore can harness the sense of hurt they would have felt after losing to Padraig Pearses by a point, they could be the better betting option here.

Offaly SFC

Needless to say this columnist was always going throw a quick shout to the Offaly championship, where the big event will be the double header in O’Connor Park tomorrow afternoon. The second leg of this double header involves champions Edenderry taking on Tullamore and while Tullamore were very disappointing last year, they’ve always gone well under the guidance of former player Phil O’Reilly, who once again takes charge of his home town. Edenderry’s championship run last year centred around some great play from Richie Dalton and Seán Pender, neither of whom have hit form yet this year. In contrast, Tullamore’s younger players like Michael Brazil, John Moloney and Declan Hogan are all moving well. Boylesports lead the market at 13/10 and should get some interest at that level.

Recommendations

Leinster MFC: Louth to beat Kildare @ 9/2 (Boylesports)

Leinster SHC: Laois to beat Carlow @ 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

Galway SHC: Carnmore to beat Liam Mellows @ 11/8 (Powers)

Offaly SFC: Tullamore to beat Edenderry @ 13/10 (Boylesports)

As we discussed in our column earlier today, the provincial football championships all begin in earnest this weekend, with five teams poised to exit the race for their respective provincial titles on Sunday, barring draws. The Sunday Game cameras will travel to Dr Hyde Park in Roscommon to take in the meeting of the Rossies and Galway in the Connacht quarter final, however there are good betting opportunities all across Ireland, starting at Navan, where Westmeath look well poised to break a run of defeats against Louth.

Westmeath vs Louth

Louth manager Peter Fitzpatrick probably wishes he could play Westmeath every week. In four games against the Lake County, he has guided Louth to four wins, three in the league and one in the 2010 Leinster championship.  Louth also won the last meeting between these two counties before Fitzpatrick took over – a 1-12 to 0-7 victory in the 2007 National League – but previously this was actually a fixture that Westmeath dominated, with seven wins in succession between 2001 and 2006. This column’s suspicion is that the tide could be turning back in Westmeath’s favour, after the Lazarus act that saved their place in Division 2.

Both sides are entitled to be very proud of their achievements in salvaging Division 2 status – both counties were odds on to make the drop – but Westmeath should be a little bit stronger on Sunday than they were in the league, while key absentees from the Louth team should leave them a weaker side than they were in the Spring. John Gaffey, Doran Harte and James Dolan are all selected to start on Sunday having spent most of the Spring playing football in the green and red of Garrycastle instead of the maroon colours of Westmeath, while Eoin O’Connor, Eamon McAuley and Shane Lennon all miss out due to injury on the Louth side.

As if that weren’t enough, Brian White, Brian Donnelly, James Califf and Cathal Bellew have all decided to emigrate to the US for the summer, while regular full back Dessie Finnegan will miss the game as he will be on his honeymoon. Needless to say not all of the eight players listed above would start, but if they were all available, they would possibly fill as many as four of the spinal positions on the team. Louth simply don’t have the depth to justify favouritism with so many gaps in central positions and so Westmeath represent great value.

Longford vs Laois

This is a fascinating game on so many levels. Longford are brimming with confidence, they will play in front of a home crowd, they play a wonderful fast, attacking brand of football and they are looking forward with enthusiasm to this Leinster campaign and in particular the chance to settle a score with Laois, after they came so close to beating them last year. Laois in contrast are riddled with self-doubt, struggling to find form and unsure of their identity. However while both these teams will play division 2 football in 2013, there were two divisions between them this year and this is still the same Laois team that beat both Armagh and Donegal and gave Dublin a tough contest.

For all the reasons listed above, Longford are a very “lovable” county at the moment. They’re the type of plucky underdog that neutrals love, but that can sometimes lead to fundamental flaws being overlooked. For example they are not strong ball winners at midfield, and the swashbuckling, attacking style of their forward division can sometimes leave the defence exposed. However Laois haven’t improved from Spring to Summer for a while now and they aren’t worthy of trust at odds on.

What we can believe in is the likelihood of a high scoring game, Longford’s very way of playing ensures it. Last year Laois played very defensive football but that didn’t really work out for them and Justin McNulty has reverted to a more attacking style this year. Boylesports have pitched their total points mark at 27.5 – on a good playing surface like Pearse Park and in front of a partisan home crowd, we’re confident that number will be surpassed.

Cavan vs Donegal

This is one of those predictions that more experienced GAA pundits don’t usually make, because it can come back to haunt you in the white heat of championship. However we’re going to go ahead and do it anyway, even if it does risk making us look foolish. Donegal should win this with plenty to spare.

Cavan should experience a certain bounce under Terry Hyland and they have some good young footballers to call upon, but they are a world away from where Donegal are in their preparations right now. One of these teams is an All Ireland contender, the other is a team that would be playing division 4 football in 2013 but for the fact that they miraculously found two teams worse than them this year in the third tier. Donegal’s defensive style is the only thing that has this handicap so low, and frankly if it were a six point handicap instead of a three, this columnist would still fancy Donegal to cover, that’s how bad Cavan are.

Limerick vs Waterford

Waterford haven’t beaten anyone other than Clare in the Munster football championship in nearly a quarter of a century.

We give that line a paragraph all to itself so we can allow the magnitude of that statement to sink in. No matter what issues Limerick may have had this year, they still should be better than Waterford, who continue to struggle. If this game were taking place in Fraher Field we might have some belief in the possibility of an upset, but even allowing for the somewhat uncharacteristically free scoring 1-18 to 1-14 win for Waterford when these two counties met in the league, we’d prefer to go for a lower stakes, higher return bet this week than backing the underdogs, who look to be up against it.

So we’re going to pick two players for a first goalscorer bet. First we’ll go with Mark Ferncombe, who scored four goals for Waterford in the league while no other player raised more than a single green flag, and we’re also going to side with Seamus O’Carroll for Limerick. The big full forward is one of the players who should relish the opportunity to go for balls dropping into the square and while he’s been praised highly for his achievements playing handball in recent weeks, he’s also a very accomplished footballer and one who will be a real threat to the Waterford goal this Sunday.

Roscommon vs Galway

If Roscommon manager Des Newton can go into championship battle without feeling the need to start a single member of an under-21 panel that reached the All Ireland final, then clearly he believes that either (a) Roscommon have serious strength in depth, or (b) the under-21′s weren’t that good after all. As with all things, it’s probably a little bit of both.

Galway football this year has given the impression of being very, very close to hitting the mark. Alan Mulholland has imposed a style and pattern to the county’s play and eliminated a lot of the individuality that plagued the Tribesmen in recent years. He now has a young, strong panel who are working hard for each other and if Michael Meehan is in fact close to making a return as is rumoured, then this could yet turn out to be a good summer for Galway. The problem is that they have always shown a genuine disinterest in the qualifiers and in order to avoid that minefield, they need to get out of Dr Hyde Park intact. This could prove tricky, and while this column remains of the view that there are parallels between Roscommon football and the emporor with no clothes, there’s nothing to be gained by punting the Galway at 8/15. Instead, we’ll again play the square ball rule change and side with another big full forward to net the first goal – in this case Paul Conroy of St James and Galway.

Match Betting Recommendations

Louth vs Westmeath: Westmeath to win @ 5/4 (Bet365, Skybet)

Longford vs Laois: Over 27.5 total points @ 5/6 (Boylesports)

Cavan vs Donegal: Donegal -3pts @ 5/6 (Boylesports, Bet365)

Limerick vs Waterford: Seamus O’Carroll @ 7/1 and Mark Ferncombe @ 8/1 to score the first goal. (Ladbrokes)

Roscommon vs Galway: Paul Conroy to score the first goal @ 7/1 (general)

Concluding our series of report cards, we now take a look at the second tier of the National Hurling League, featuring five teams with managers facing into their first championship at the helm of their current team. Indeed for four of the five bosses in question, it will be their first ever championship as an intercounty manager.

Clare – B

The Banner County deservedly topped the Division 1B class and yet again, David Fitzgerald is proving that a very astute hurling brain lies beneath his ferociously competitive and tempestuous exterior. Granted he’s got plenty of raw material to work with in Clare at the moment as some of the best young hurlers in Ireland are natives of the county, but they ticked every box over the course of the league. They produced a stunning display to blow Limerick out of the water in week one, they safely negotiated banana skin fixtures against Antrim and Laois, they hurled Wexford off the park without getting out of second gear, they beat Offaly in Tullamore with a reserve team and they came back from a large deficit in the 1B final against Limerick. It was disappointing that they failed to produce something different to unsettle Kilkenny a little in the league semi final, but generally things are moving well in Clare and they look like real Munster championship contenders right now, particularly with Tipperary struggling to find form.

Limerick – D

They huffed and puffed about dubious decisions in their drawn game against Offaly, but really they should have had the Faithful County long put away before then. They’ve made no real progress since last year and there are too many positions on the spine of their team still up for grabs, way more than should be the case with a manager in his second year. They have great potential and should be relishing the prospect of a Munster championship clash with Tipp, but too many of their new discoveries from last year seem to be suffering from a “sophomore slump” for that to be a realistic betting prospect at the moment.

Offaly – D

Offaly are comfortable hurling at division 1B level but will look back at all three of their games against decent opposition with some level of regret. They absolutely hurled Wexford off the park in round 2 of the campaign before inexplicably conceding three late goals and losing out by a point, they went out of the game for long spells against Limerick and still got a draw and had plenty of chances to beat Clare in Tullamore. Still, they actually have more depth in the panel than has been the case for a long time and with players like David Kenny and Rory Hanniffy fit, they actually have plenty of real leaders in the team. They will be better than they were in 2011, but time will tell how much better.

Wexford – E

We could try and paint a positive picture here, but there would be no justification for doing so. They deservedly lost to Antrim, they showed plenty of character but little hurling in their win over Offaly and nothing that we’ve seen so far suggests that Liam Dunne has a clear plan in terms of where he’s going with the team and what way he wants them to play. Winning a Leinster championship seems as far away as ever and while it’s now been twelve years since they lost to Offaly in the championship, that day looks to be closer than ever.

Antrim – B

Jerry Wallace should actually be really happy with how his side performed this Spring. Playing without the Loughgiel hurlers for the vast, vast majority of the campaign, they beat Wexford, put Offaly under real pressure in Tullamore and produced a great comeback when they needed it against Laois. They actually look to be in a good place in advance of this championship and could pull off a surprise somewhere this summer.

Laois – E

The optimism that pervaded Laois hurling in January has long since dissipated and Teddy McCarthy must be wondering what he has signed on for in trying to sort out the dysfunctional midlanders. They hurled well for small patches against Offaly and Wexford and for maybe half the game in Casement Park against Antrim, but they need to do a lot more. Right now they must be dreading their Leinster championship battle with Carlow, and rightly so.

Having covered the main action this weekend, all that remains is to cast our eye over the underage and club action taking place, though bets are hard to come by at a time of year when clubs are still finding their feet.

Leinster MHC

Offaly host Wexford in O’Connor Park at 2pm to get things underway in the first of three Leinster championship battles between these two counties at minor, U21 and senior level this year. Both these counties should have their work cut out for them in competing with Kilkenny and Dublin for provincial honours, but Wexford look a lot closer to the mark than the home side. Wexford will have as many as five starters from last year’s team that beat Offaly by a goal in Wexford Park, while due to injuries to Cillian Kiely and Ethan Mannion, Offaly will only have goalkeeper Conor Clancy coming back in from their 2011 team. 4/11 is a very short price but based on challenge match results so far, Wexford still represent a worthwhile addition to accumulator bets.

Westmeath have lost the vast majority of last year’s very successful minor team but even so they probably are the better value call for their match with Laois at Cusack Park in Mullingar. Senior panellists Robbie Greville and Niall O’Brien both feature for the Lake county minors and that kind of big game experience is crucial at this level. Laois should have a decent team on paper but they’ve struggled on the challenge match circuit and have been the poor relation between these two midland counties in recent years.

Tipperary SHC

The county hurlers might be in action against Cork, but the South board in Tipp rarely lets such things bother them and they’ve fixed two qualifier matches for this weekend. Killenaule will beat Davins by as much as they like, though punters won’t get rich at prices of 1/5 and shorter, while the battle between Carrick Swan and Ballingarry is expected to be a close one. Swan were given the slightest of edges by most bookmakers but their chances increased hugely when it was released that Ballingarry free taker Seán Cahill would miss out on the fixture due to injury. In a tight battle like this, that one factor could be crucial and anything better than 8/11 about a win for Swan here is well worth taking.

Westmeath SFC

The standout price here has to be the 5/1 about Tyrrellspass beating Garrycastle in the first round tomorrow. If this were a knockout quarter final or semi final this price would be accurate, but Garrycastle have played no league games and concentrated entirely on their All Ireland run up to the start of this month. Since then Anthony Cunningham has stepped down with no replacement, most of the players have taken a few weeks off and in a six team group, realistically they don’t need to be at their best yet. Tyrrellspass are a dangerous opponent at any time and the news that David Glennon has trasferred back down to his home club from St Sylvesters in Dublin is a massive boost. Boylesports offer 5/1 here and that could easily be the bet of the week.

While you’re there, have a nibble at 7/4 about Athlone to beat the Downs. Athlone have toiled in the shadow of their more illustrious neighbours for the past decade and more, but they’ve still got a good pick of players and under the tutelege of former Offaly player and manager Tom Coffey, they’ve gone really well this season, scoring freely in the first division of the league. The Downs are a solid, tough club but they do lack flair and while our verdict here might be different if the betting was even money each of two, price is always the first and foremost factor in determining a bet and 7/4 Athlone is enough to point us in that direction.

Earlier today we recommended a bet on Mayo on grounds that probably wouldn’t best please followers of the green above the red – that Kerry mightn’t be that motivated for a game against James Horan’s team. We were also fully ready to recommend a bet on the Galway hurlers, based on grounds that wouldn’t best please the Tribesmen. However teams have been named and things have changed….

Dublin vs Galway

Both these counties will feel a little aggrieved that despite hurling quite well for most of the season, they ended up in the drop zone while a well timed late run by Waterford saved the Déise’s bacon. However they are where they are now and neither manager will want to lose Sunday’s battle in O’Connor Park and play Division 1B hurling in 2013. Traditionally Galway are at their strongest in April and that was why we were poised to suggest that they were a good value bet at odds against, but then the teams were released, Paul Ryan was named to start in the Dublin attack and Joe Canning’s continued absence was confirmed, so needless to say this affected our view.

Anthony Daly won’t thank Conor Hayes for his outburst this week suggesting that Galway are being badly managed, which will surely motivate the Galway troops to a certain degree. There was a fair degree of truth in what Hayes said – Anthony Cunningham is far from certain of his best team and players are being tried in very different positions. Nonetheless, we are forced to ask – when was it ever any different out in Galway?

It’s all very well to think back on the halcyon days of the 1980′s when the Galway team picked itself, but the problem with an endless production line of capable young hurlers is that it becomes very hard to know which of the 60-100 candidates for county panel slots are the better players. However this has been the case for a long time with Galway and yet they are still a division 1A team and always rated as one of the top four or five teams in Ireland.

Last year these two sides met in the championship in Tullamore and Galway were 1/2 or shorter with a lot of the bookies. The pendulum has swung, possibly too far, but then that was a Galway team with Canning, this one isn’t. Our instinct is still to side with Galway, but not enough to recommend a bet. Instead, we’re going to look at the total points market.

After a high scoring few weeks in early March, the bookies have pulled in the reins on their totals markets but they’ve possibly gone too far here, pitching the line in the high thirties. Dublin are a quite strong team defensively but O’Connor Park is a high scoring field generally and Powers offer of 11/10 about 40 or more as a total is a very appealing bet.

Laois vs Wexford

The arrival of Teddy McCarthy to the O’Moore County was supposed to usher in a new era of competitiveness in Laois hurling, one where the undoubted talent in the county was harnessed. It all started very well and the Walsh Cup victory over Dublin suggested that things were on the up, but after a decent start against Offaly in the league, Mick McEvoy got a red card, Offaly ran up a large score and the wheels duly fell off. Since then Laois have really struggled to even rediscover their Walsh Cup form and their failure to defend a ten point lead against Antrim has seen rumours of backbiting and discontent resurface.

Neither side tried too hard last week but Wexford still won with plenty to spare and while Liam Dunne has his own problems in the South East, they will win this and should cover the spread as well.

Carlow vs Westmeath

Carlow had a slight edge when these two sides met in the round robin series and Westmeath appear to be trying to level the score with all sorts of rumour mongering regarding which players will and won’t be fit to hurl in Nowlan Park this Sunday. Eoin Price takes his place at centre back despite being tipped to miss out, while Brendan Murtagh, Paddy Dowdall and Adam Price are all named as substitutes this week. Now if these lads actually aren’t fit, then Carlow are a great bet at 4/6 – the idea that a county with a small pick like Westmeath wouldn’t be affected by the loss of three of their best players is ludicrous. So stand by for at least one of the three to make a “miraculous” recovery in time for the start, and one more to be sprung off the bench after twenty minutes or so. It’ll make no difference, and if anything will only discommode and confuse the team. Carlow are hurling that bit better at the moment and they deserve to be favourites here, regardless of the gamesmanship from the Lake county.

NHL Playoff Recommendations

Dublin vs Galway: 40 or more points @ 11/10 (Powers)

Laois vs Wexford: Wexford -8 @ 11/10 (Powers)

Carlow vs Westmeath: Carlow @ 4/6 (Betpack, Stan James, BetVictor)

The playoffs may still be looming on the horizon, but for the vast majority of teams, the National Football League is over for another year and nothing remains but to pore over the carcass and see what needs to be done in advance of the championship. The big news in division 1 was the failure of Dublin to reach the last four, and they look to be the side with the most work to do in advance of the championship.

Kerry: B

Despite playing without a lot of their frontline players, Kerry still topped the division and while their final round draw with Mayo wasn’t some of their best work, they still look to be in a good place. Bryan Sheehan looks more settled than ever at midfield while Patrick Curtin is showing lots of potential up front. After losing the previous All Ireland final by a point, it doesn’t take a lot new for Kerry to get where they need to be. A much improved performance from the under-21 footballers under the guidance of Eamon Fitzmaurice is more good news for the Kingdom and they also look to have some good prospects in their ranks that could be called upon if required.

Cork – C

Conor Counihan is persisting with the experiment of playing Aidan Walsh as a target man full forward and his goal at the weekend will undoubtedly be seen as some vindication of that policy, but it’s also detracting from the potency of their running game from midfield. Perhaps this is a ploy to counteract blanket defences, but right now Cork are not really running up the scores that they need and look to be a step behind their main rivals.

Down – C

Many would argue that reaching the knockout stages deserves more praise for a county like Down in such heady Division 1 company, but with the exception of their strong performance against Dublin, they haven’t really shown anything new. They have a great killer instinct and they produced a big win over Laois when it was badly needed, but it’s hard to look at the Down team that played throughout the league and say that James McCartan has hit on a new player or a new tactic, or anything that’s going to bump them up from “capable of beating anyone on their day” to “blue chip contender”. They’re in a better place than most, but they only have another year or two before they start to lose a lot of key players and they need to produce soon. It’s hard to tell what McCartan has in his locker but he’ll need something, though a very kind Ulster championship draw will bring them a long way.

Mayo – B

On the grounds that all league games are equal when it comes to points but not all are equal when it comes to championship form, Mayo actually have more cause to be happy than most right now. Granted some of their losses earlier in the campaign were very disappointing, but they rounded off the season with a great performance against Cork where they were edged out of it, a draw in Kerry and a devastating demolition job of Dublin. Yet again they seem to have eight or nine forwards all making a strong case for championship inclusion and Donal Vaughan looks like he’s really stepped up to a whole new level at centre back. Their semi-final against Kerry will be fascinating but one way or another they look well poised to win Connacht and look like great value at 20/1 in places for the All Ireland on that basis.

Dublin – D

The Dubs badly need Bernard Brogan back because up front they are completely lacking penetration. Pat Gilroy said after Sunday’s defeat to Cork that “We uncovered a few new players, which was one of the things we wanted to do”. At the risk of sounding harsh, if he has discovered them, he hasn’t shown them to the rest of us yet. He has got some solid contributions from proven players in different positions, with Kevin McManamon coming to mind in particular in this regard, but they have a lot of work to do and are currently six points behind where they were at the end of 2011. It’s not as simple as just presuming that it’ll all work out in the end.

Donegal – D

They survived by virtue of three home wins in the league, beating Cork when the Rebels had two key players out through suspension, edging past Armagh who had no Crossmaglen players, and beating Mayo on a day when the Connacht champions never showed up. They’ve shown us nothing and knowing Jimmy McGuinness, that’s probably deliberate. Their championship tactics took us all by surprise last year and expect something similar this time around. Ignore their league entirely is the message here.

Laois – D

Realistically the midlanders were always likely to be relegated so dropping to division 2 is no disaster for them, particularly after winning two games and playing quite well in others, most notably against Kerry and Dublin. Their Leinster draw is tricky but if it also represents a nice progression. If they come through Longford and Wexford, they will be very well poised and ready for a Croke Park tie against the Dubs. Nonetheless they lack free scoring inside forwards and they certainly won’t have taken any heart from their under-21 display.

Armagh – B

Another controversial grade, giving a B to a team that just got relegated, but Armagh played competitively in the top flight without having any use of their Crossmaglen players – that’s an incredible achievement. We certainly won’t get involved in the debate about the rights and wrongs of Ciarán McKeever’s red card in Portlaoise but they essentially got relegated that day and it’s safe to say that such a sequence of events won’t happen again. Put the Cross players back into that team and already the 10th of June in the Morgan Athletic Grounds looks like something well worth marking on your calendar.

Working out the various permutations for this weekend’s National Football League division 1 battles would require an advanced degree in Mathematics, however the GAA authorities have been reasonably fortunate in that seven of the eight teams have something to play for this week so at least supporters will be watching teams trying to win before they have to break out their calculators in the last quarter. We’ll start our round up in Cork, where two of the antepost favourites from pre-season meet in a significant battle, one where defeat is not an option that either Conor Counihan or Pat Gilroy would like to countenance.

Cork vs Dublin

It’s no surprise that Dublin have struggled to generate scores in some of their games with Bernard and Alan Brogan playing little or no part in the league so far, but how many pundits would have predicted that the All Ireland champions would miss Eoghan O’Gara as much as they have? O’Gara was central to their win over Laois and a little bit of his physical presence and direct approach would have been a pleasant change in Castlebar when Mayo cut through them for a short cut last week – though granted it would have had nothing more than a cosmetic effect on the scoreboard with so many Dubs off form. Cork will certainly bring plenty of physicality to this game, though so far, their tactic of playing Aidan Walsh at full forward hasn’t quite worked out. Nonetheless they give the impression of a team that is actually a lot closer to the finished product than Dublin, they just need to iron out a few kinks.

This game was a tough one to call all week but Pat Gilroy made up our minds for us with his team selection. Craig Dias, David Byrne and Michael Dara MacAuley are odd selections in a forward line which surely was crying out for the more potent scoring threat that would have been offered by players like Paddy Andrews or Dean Rock. Cork have the more settled team, they have home advantage, and they need to win – we expect they will.

Donegal vs Armagh

Early in the week we were all set to go big on a home win here, but news of the potential absence of Colm McFadden and Paddy McBrearty makes this game impossible to predict unless you have the inside track to their availability. Michael Murphy is already absent, meaning that if these two also fail to make the start, it’s impossible to see where Donegal will get scores. The Tír Chonaill men are the better team at full strength, but that’s no help to us now. The better bet here might be taking Christy Toye to score a goal – if either McBrearty or McFadden fails to make the start, Toye is the most likely candidate to be pushed into a more forward role and at 14/1 to score the first goal, with each way allowed, backing him could be the best way to go.

Kerry vs Mayo

Only Kerry could revamp their team due to having nothing to play for and yet bring in a player like Colm Cooper. It’s almost laughable, if you’re not from Mayo of course.

On form, we’d nearly suggest that an upset is possible here, but Mayo have a terrible record against Kerry and there is a nagging suspicion that their match against Dublin was almost too good to be true – is it really likely that the Mayo forwards will be that accurate again? Then to top it all off, there is Jack O’Connor’s ability to spring either Darran or Declan O’Sullivan from the bench if required. No bet here.

Laois vs Down

Down have actually played some very good football so far in this league campaign and while they were poor against Kerry and atrocious against Cork, they did produce some other very good performances along the way, not least their win over Dublin at Newry. Laois on the other hand have shown good survival instinct, but they haven’t been as impressive in terms of quality. We suspect Down may actually win this with a little in hand, so again we’re going to go for the low-risk, high-return market that is winning margin.

NFL Division 1 Recommendations

Cork vs Dublin: Cork -1pt @ 10/11 (Betpack, Blue Square)

Donegal vs Armagh: Christy Toye to score the first goal @ 14/1, each way (Powers)

Laois vs Down: Down by 4-6 points @ 11/2 (Powers)

Some lucky Cork bus company got a gig they weren’t expecting when tomorrow night’s league fixture between the Rebel County and Laois was moved from Leeside to the midlands, and certainly the bookmaking community won’t have been too unhappy either as what was something of a dead rubber is suddenly now a much more competitive fixture. Dublin host Armagh in the second leg of a big time double header in Croke Park on Sunday, while elsewhere in the division, Kerry will be expected to continue their good form against a Donegal team who will see how Cork felt after travelling the full length of the country, while Down travel to Mayo, who were quietly impressive against Armagh last weekend.

Laois vs Cork

Justin McNulty’s men always looked second best against the visiting Dubs last weekend, but they still could easily have finished within the three point spread were it not for a late strike by Eoghan O’Gara to increase the final gap to five. Cork have now dropped points twice on their travels up to Ulster and with fixtures against Kerry, Mayo and Dublin still to come, they’ll want to boost their tally and take a strong step closer to the league playoffs.

Last week we were happy to oppose Cork, but that was with a good Donegal team who had Michael Murphy coming back, while Cork missing two key players through suspension. Murphy duly scored 1-3 and Donegal won – but Laois have no such hero riding into battle to save them. Ladbrokes and Boyles both go 11/10 about Cork winning by four or more and against a very ordinary Laois team who will be eying up upcoming matches against Armagh and Down as the ones to save their season, that bet looks very attractive.

Kerry vs Donegal

That Donegal have improved is beyond doubt, but Fitzgerald Stadium in Killarney is a long way from Letterkenny or Ballybofey and when the Ulster champions get there, they’ll meet a Kingdom side that are in very strong form at the moment. Expect Donegal to put up a strong defensive display but the Kingdom to do enough.

Dublin vs Armagh

After taking three points from games against Kerry and Cork, Armagh put up their worst display of the year last weekend against Mayo and suddenly the prospect of relegation is very real once again. Whether or not they make the drop will almost certainly be determined in their other games rather than here, since even Armagh playing well would struggle to live with Dublin. The news that Bernard Brogan has been given the all clear and has resumed training is another boost and the very short odds on a home win look justified.

Mayo vs Down

Down started the year with a great home win over Donegal and while there is no shame in losing to Cork and Kerry in successive weeks, they haven’t looked competitive against those opponents. They should find the going a little easier in Castlebar, but not by that much. James Horan continues to impress with the subtle balancing of the often conflicting goals of getting results and blooding players. They could win well here.

NFL Division 1 recommendations

Laois vs Cork: Cork -3pts @ 11/10 (Ladbrokes, Boylesports)

Kerry vs Donegal: Kerry to win by 4-6 points @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)

Mayo vs Down: Mayo -3pts @ 11/10 (Powers, Hills)

The GAA public and indeed the GAA betting community are certainly spoilt for choice this weekend, with an array of games to choose from in both football and hurling. Plenty of counties are already in dire need of points in the football league, but with such a short season for the main hurling counties, they too will be eager to either continue their current momentum or else undo the damage done in week one. We’ll start our previews with the small ball code this week.

Waterford vs Kilkenny

Any notion of Kilkenny starting the year with a post All Ireland hangover was well and truly blown out of the water in their league opener against Tipperary when they blew away a very rusty looking Premier County team. Waterford actually played moderately well for long stretches of their game against Cork, particularly when the number of key absentees was factored in. However a burst of goals in the second quarter proved crucial and so the Rebels ended up with a relatively comfortable win.

This match might be set for Walsh Park, but the simple fact of the matter is that Kilkenny are too motivated and too strong at this time of year to be opposed. William Hill offer a six point handicap, similar to the rest of the firms in the marketplace, but they are the only firm going odds against about that outcome and that’s good enough for us.

Dublin vs Cork

Another big Spring occasion for the Dublin hurlers in Croke Park and certainly they have a lot of dirty diesel to get out of their system if the Walsh Cup and opening league round are anything to go by. This column was somewhat skeptical of Jimmy Barry Murphy’s ability to make silk purses out of the sows ears that we saw hurling for Cork in 2011, but we’re not going to make the same mistake again. On the other hand, neither is it remotely sensible to back Cork to win, at odds on, away from home, against a team that are better than they are. We can only throw logic out the window so much. No bet here.

Tipperary vs Galway

Galway haven’t beaten Tipperary in their last six league and championship meetings now and their most recent clash, in Salthill last year, saw the Premier men come away with an eighteen point win. A similar result is unlikely here but even so the only logical play is siding with Tipperary to cover Boylesports’ two point spread. Rumours of unhappiness in the Tipperary camp with the management of Declan Ryan are gathering momentum but there still are too many outstanding hurlers in there to be dismissed, while their Waterford Crystal Cup win over Clare last weekend kept them sharp.

Galway manager Anthony Cunningham has a tough task on his hands balancing the dual requirements of the Galway hurlers and the Garrycastle footballers but he has done a good job with a young Galway panel so far. Nonetheless beating a weakened Dublin team at home is one thing – going away to Tipp and winning is quite another.

Laois vs Limerick

Both these sides endured painful reverses in local derbies in round one and it’s reasonable to assume that there will be a certain amount of backlash on both sides. The sending off of Mick McEvoy had a lot to do with Laois’ result against Offaly as it allowed the home side to endow David Kenny with a free role and he duly mopped up a mountain of ball in the Laois forward line. If they can resist the urge to lose a man this time around, Laois can actually be quite competitive here in a game that they really need to go well in. Lose here and a winless league campaign is very, very likely.

Clare vs Antrim

Based on their form in the first round of the league, Clare will be winning this tie by as much as they like, particularly since Antrim are not good travellers in this competition. The Northerners will test anyone at Casement Park, but the long trips south tend to take it out of them. Nonetheless the bookies seem to have it right here and backing Clare to win by ten or more is essentially betting on their levels of motivation.They might have been happy to put Limerick to the sword when the opportunity arose, but they’ve no axe to grind with the Glensmen.

Wexford vs Offaly

Historically the home side usually won league encounters between these two sides, though at the moment the two counties seem to be in very different places and it’s the visitors who have the more cause for optimism in advance of Sunday’s tie. Offaly seem to have done a much better job of finding a manager since Ollie Baker has fitted right in at the helm of the Faithful County, while Liam Dunne is finding that life is a lot tougher managing Wexford than it was when managing Oulart. The return of Diarmuid Lyng to training is a massive, massive boost to the county as the Model County have never adequately replaced Lyng’s all round ability in the forward line, but this weekend is probably a bit too early for him to make a meaningful contribution. Offaly should win on form, but history precludes us from putting that recommendation on the books.

Weekend NHL Recommendations

Waterford vs Kilkenny: Kilkenny -6pts @ 11/10 (Hills)

Tipperary vs Galway: Tipperary -2pts @ 4/5 (Boylesports)

Laois vs Limerick: Laois +5pts @ 1/1 (Hills)

Not unlike the third round of the US Masters golf tournament which is referred to as “Moving Day”, so it is in the National Football League, where round three is the chance for counties start to show real signs of how they are fixed for the summer and how the remainder of their league season is likely to pan out. Early February comes a little quickly for a lot of managers, however even the few that adhere to the winter training ban have now had a couple of months to settle in together and form starts to become much more meaningful.

We’ll start our “Moving Weekend” set of previews with a look at Division 1.

Laois vs Dublin

Rumours that Alan and Bernard Brogan were poised to return for tomorrow night’s clash in O’Moore Park turned out to be erroneous as Tomás Quinn and Diarmuid Connolly fill the corner forward slots either side of Eoghan O’Gara, but even allowing for the absence of the Oliver Plunketts siblings, it’s very hard to make a case to support Laois here. The O’Moore men pulled off a great victory in Donegal last time out but that still looks like a one off result rather than a sign of greater things to come. A 1-16 to 0-13 reverse against Offaly last Saturday night in a challenge match doesn’t suggest that things are going too well and we saw enough from Dublin in the first half of their abandoned match against Mayo to suggest that they are moving at a different tempo now.

Armagh vs Mayo

You can have odds against about either team in this fixture if you shop around, though if you’re a fan of historical trends, you’ll just be looking for one side – it’s actually one week short of twenty years since Mayo last beat Armagh in a competitive fixture. Granted that twenty years just saw the teams play each other five times and last year’s one goal win for Armagh in Castlebar was their first meeting in six seasons. Much more relevant is Armagh’s current good current form and after taking three points from battles with Kerry and Cork, they could have the upper hand here in front of their own supporters. Malachy Mackin’s place in the team is confirmed after there were some doubts about his participation, and while Ciaran McKeever’s absence is a worry, Ladbrokes’ offer of 5/4 about a home win is good enough for us.

Down vs Kerry

Kerry manager Jack O’Connor is famous for his chip on the shoulder regarding Ulster teams and the recalled Declan O’Sullivan will surely share some of that sentiment after the controversial All Ireland Junior semi final between Derrytresk and his own Dromid Pearses. Down’s most recent outing in the league would put you off betting on them for the foreseeable future, but it’s still a long journey for the Kingdom and not the kind of game where we’d like to recommend a bet. Our gut feeling is that Down at 13/5 with William Hill might be worth a second look but this is definitely one of the most unpredictable games of the weekend.

Donegal vs Cork

Donegal have left themselves with a huge mountain to climb after taking no points from two relatively easy ties against Down and Laois, so the pressure is really on for this home fixture against Cork. If they lose, with trips to Dublin and Kerry still to come, they’ll almost certainly be facing a swift return to division two. While their form in February was a concern, the stars are aligning for Donegal a little bit here and they could cause a shock this week. The suspensions to Michael Shields and Pierce O’Neill will rob Cork of some of their power, while Eoin Cotter replaces Eoin Cadogan due to injury, also in the full back line, leaving Cork looking a little weak in that sector. The return of Michael Murphy to action for DCU is also a boost and of course it would be foolish to ignore the logistical nightmare that is Cork making their way to Ballybofey for this fixture. It’s notable too that after touching 5/2 for a time, Paddy Powers have seen fit to cut Donegal into 2/1. Whoever was putting on that money could be on to a winner this week.

NFL Division 1 Recommendations

Laois vs Dublin: Dublin to win by 4-6  points at 10/3 (Ladbrokes, Powers)

Armagh vs Mayo: Armagh to win @ 5/4 (Ladbrokes)

Donegal vs Cork: Donegal to win @ 3/1 (Bodog)

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