The GAA may get a lot of things wrong, but they have mastered the art of starting the National Football League with a bang in recent years and tomorrow night’s double header featuring Kildare vs Tyrone and Dublin vs Kerry is a genuinely mouthwatering attraction, one that should attract a substantial crowd for what will be an incredible night of entertainment. We’ll have a look at Kildare vs Tyrone later today, but for now, let’s have a look at the All Ireland final rematch to kick off our previewing for the week.

Dublin vs Kerry

Last year’s All Ireland final was not unlike an episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer for Dublin supporters, since so many demons were killed over the course of the match. They beat Kerry in an All Ireland final, they delivered a fantastic comeback when it looked like they were dead and buried and thus proved their mental fortitude, and above all they bridged the 16 year gap and ensured that the Sam Maguire Cup spent the winter in the nation’s capital city. Their priority for 2012 will of course be to retain that title and while any victory over Kerry is a good day’s work, much like the O’Byrne Cup semi final two weeks ago, this is a game that Dublin would like to win, but yet they have no real need of doing so. Bernard Brogan, Alan Brogan and Paul Flynn are among the significant absentees from the forward line, but Mossy Quinn has been in good form so far this year while Diarmuid Connolly is capable of scoring well, so that’s not really our concern.

Traditionally opposing Kerry in the first round of the league is a good policy to keep. They’ve often come out of the blocks slowly and usually bounce back in week two. That said, it’s never good to underestimate the intensity that a Kerryman can bring to a game if he feels in any way slighted. Last year was supposed to be Colm Cooper’s year to lift the Sam Maguire and while Dublin probably deserved their narrow win in the final, Kerry can certainly feel a little aggrieved with a few marginal decisions that went against them, none more so than the free that was awarded and converted by Stephen Cluxton to win the game. Dublin are a long way off full fitness yet and even without the Dr Crokes players, Kerry look like the more motivated side here.

Down vs Donegal

Last year Donegal hit the ground running, this year so far they’ve been very flat and the general consensus appears to be that a home win is the most likely outcome here. This column is not so sure about that. Derry shut down the highly rated Down attack in the McKenna Cup semi-final and thoughDonegal are missing a few very important players for this game – in the absence of Colm McFadden, Michael Murphy and Mark McHugh, one wonders where their scores will come from – this is a game where both managers will be drawing heavily on their reserves. In that context, the team with the best system, where panel players can slot in and do a job, may have the advantage and that suggests Donegal can be competitive in what could be one of the lowest scoring matches of the weekend. The match odds seem correct, so we’ll side with a shutout here.

Laois vs Mayo

Laois outdid themselves to secure promotion to division one last year, but one wonders if it will seem like a pyrrhic victory after a tough campaign in the top flight this Spring. Games away to Donegal, Kerry and Cork look like lost causes before the start, so they will have to look at taking at least five if not six points from their four home fixtures to have any chance of staying up. Mayo have been moving well so far this Spring and even though Laois tend to go well under lights at O’Moore Park, we suspect an arduous league campaign starts tomorrow night for Justin McNulty’s men.

Armagh vs Cork

Ladbrokes posted up 1/2 about a Cork win earlier this week and they were quickly brought back into line by the weight of money, while even the 2/5 that was generally available is starting to move now, as the punters line up to take on a home side shorn of their Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Armagh have sometimes surprised us in the past with strong performances at home, but two debutant corner forwards either side of a full forward who is more known for his workrate than his finishing does not suggest that they will score freely this weekend. Now look at the Cork team – arguably stronger than the side that lined out in their last championship match, due to players returning from injury. Taking a global view, it seems wrong not to recommend a single home team to win in a full round of games, but despite an inspecific sense of uneasiness about doing so, logic forces us to back Cork to cover the spread here.

Division One Recommendations

Dublin vs Kerry: Kerry @ 11/10 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Bet365)

Down vs Donegal: No Goalscorer @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)

Laois vs Mayo: Mayo -3pts @ 23/10 (Powers – alternative handicap)

Armagh vs Cork: Cork -3pts @ 11/10 (William Hill)

A quick look down the card of the hurling fixtures taking place this weekend very quickly reveals that whatever else is likely to happen, attendence figures are highly unlikely to challenge the decent numbers that have been posted in the McKenna and O’Byrne competitions this year so far.

The largest crowd of the day will quite possibly be in the unlikely venue of Rathdowney, where Laois will take on Dublin and look to continue to build momentum after overcoming DIT in the first round of this competition. On last year’s championship form, it would be hard to conceive of a more mismatched pairing than these two. Laois crumbled to an appalling ten goal defeat to Cork in the qualifiers, while the Dublin hurlers came desperately close to knocking off Tipperary in the All Ireland semi-final. In championship terms, these sides live in different worlds. Yet, despite all this, Laois will feel they have a chance tomorrow. Teddy McCarthy’s arrival as manager has led to a renewed push from everyone involved in Laois hurling and last year’s Laois team would never have come back from seven points down against anyone, even a college team like DIT. They have a few good hurlers to come back in, and their All Ireland will be their league match against Offaly in Tullamore. They’ll target that fixture and they need to be flying fit now, while Dublin are realistically looking at preparing for July and August – and possibly even September.

Ultimately the result of this game will depend largely on the attitude of Dublin. If Anthony Daly fields even a moderately strong team, or his players are tuned in and go all out for this game, they will win. However good sides don’t always put their best foot forward in this competition, while Laois usually hit form early. Last year they knocked Wexford out of this tournament, in 2010 they beat Kilkenny in the Walsh Shield. If there was 4/1 or bigger available, we might recommend Dublin for a shock win, but seeing as the biggest price is 10/3 with Powers, we’ll hold our fire here. Those very keen to have a bet could do worse than take the 10/3, but it’s just not quite big enough for our taste here at Starbets.

Ollie Baker’s Offaly side were expected to cruise past Westmeath in their Walsh Cup first round fixture, but instead they succumbed to a desperately poor seven point defeat in Kinnegad. Their team looked relatively strong when measured by the amount of recognisable names, however hurlers like Shane Dooley and Diarmuid Horan, though immensely talented, aren’t long back from America and will need some time to get up to the pace of the game. All round there were plenty of signs of ring rust from the Offaly hurlers and while Wexford didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory against NUIG, they do have home advantage this week. These sides rarely get results against each other on the road and while there might be some bit of backlash from Offaly, it’s safe to assume Baker will be looking further down the road at when his players will be up to the pace, and when he can call on the services of the Coolderry contingent. Wexford should win on Sunday.

DIT fielded some decent hurlers against Laois and based on that form, they should have enough to come through the challenge of Carlow, but the danger here is that they rest players in advance of their crucial Fitzgibbon Cup match next Thursday against IT Carlow. With only an away trip to NUIG to follow, DIT are in a must win situation this Thursday and it would be a surprise if they took too many chances here against the Dolmen County. The 2/1 with William Hill makes some appeal and should be taken to small stakes, simply on the basis that Carlow need a few more games to get themselves ready for the league and will improve significantly after finding their range against UCD.

Similarly down south, it makes no sense to trust Waterford IT to go all out against Clare when they have a tricky away fixture against Cork IT midweek. Clare should win this one, but the bookmakers seem alive to this prospect and so there really is little or no opportunity for betting here.

Weekend Hurling Recommendations

Wexford vs Offaly: Wexford @ 4/5 (Powers)

Carlow vs DIT: Carlow @ 2/1 (Hills)

Following on from our breakdown of the lie of the land for the big ball players out there, it’s now time to turn our hand to their hurling counterparts and to make our projections for 2012. Listed below is the first part of our series incorporating all counties chasing provincial or Liam McCarthy honours. While we would love to extend the courtesy to the Ring/Rackard/Meaghar counties, unfortunately there is simply too much volatility at that level. One or two little things like an increase or decrease in attention from a county board that previously concentrated on football, or a couple of transfers of good club hurlers from other counties, could make a world of difference and while we do our best to pick up on all relevant information here at Starbets.ie, unfortunately every grapevine hides a few morsels of fruit deep within the branches.

The format is the same as was used for the football columns. Counties are ranked in order of how we see them right now, based on results and form, with the current bookmaker rankings in brackets and our prediction for whether they’ll be moving up or down the ladder over the next twelve months.

14. Westmeath (14 – Improvement)

One swallow does not make a summer, and while they had a good day against Carlow in the Leinster championship, they still deserve to be ranked behind the Dolmen county for the moment, as Carlow have been much more consistent in their play for the past few seasons. However the future for Westmeath hurling, in the medium to long term at least, looks bright. The small margin of their defeat to Kilkenny in this year’s Leinster minor hurling semi final was no fluke and neither was their comprehensive win over Offaly in O’Connor Park earlier in that competition. There are some excellent young hurlers coming up along the line in Westmeath and while 2012 might be a little early for a lot of them, the next five years should see the Lake county men improve hugely. We suspect they’ll begin by taking full advantage of their reprieve in the National Hurling league and by making a real push to win division 2A this spring.

13. Carlow (13 – Slight disimprovement)

For all the moaning and wailing from Limerick and Wexford, no county was more damaged by the decision to remake the national hurling league than Carlow. From a position where they were in a good competitive division 2, involving some winnable games and a chance to hurl against some “traditional” counties, they suddenly find themselves right back in with mostly Christy Ring counties. Crucially, they had a chance to avoid this fate but didn’t know it at the time. They made no effort in the last round of the league against Clare when they believed there was nothing at stake, instead resting some key players and blooding younger hurlers. As it turned out, a win in that fixture would have seen them replace Antrim in Division 1b. However having said all that, it’s hard to see where the improvement will come from next year. They’ve regressed at underage level, they still lack dominant players in central positions and while their Leinster championship clash with Laois would have been an ideal draw in 2011, under Teddy McCarthy, Laois should progress well this year.

12. Laois (12 – Improvement)

The decision to bring in one of the most decorated dual stars in the GAA’s history to take charge is a clear sign that Laois hurling intends to make real progress this year. Niall Rigney worked miracles in a difficult environment with the county in recent years, but McCarthy will command even more respect and should be able to get Laois hurling moving in the right direction this year. It’s harsh on Rigney to say that as the Portlaoise clubman is clearly one of the outstanding hurling managers in the game right now, but it’s a simple statement of fact that players will rally around a big name from outside quicker than one of their own. It’s been a long time since Laois people have been able to say with confidence that their best hurlers were all available for selection but they have plenty of glamour league ties to look forward to in Division 1B and a nice draw awaits them in the Leinster championship. Ridiculous though it might sound, Laois will feel they have the beating of Dublin. They don’t, but by shooting for the stars, they’ll still go a long way before they finally fall short.

11. Antrim (11 – Disimprovement)

There is a very real chance that they will have to work without their Loughgiel hurlers for long stretches of the league, and frankly, at any given time Antrim hurling looks capable of imploding. The current standoff with their referees, the debacle that was their attempt at fielding a decent team for the All Ireland semi final against Dublin and the long running bad blood between certain clubs all indicate that there are deep, structural problems in Antrim hurling. Many people in the county celebrated St Galls’ win over Dunloy in the club championship as a sign that hurling was making real progress in Belfast – time may tell that the result said more about Dunloy than it did about Galls. There’s simply no grounds for optimism here.

10. Wexford (10 – no change)

Wexford supporters will look at Offaly, ranked above them, and will ask questions as to why that should be after Wexford deservedly finished above the midlanders in the league. That was even after being asked to play the league game between the two counties in O’Connor Park, when home advantage is traditionally hugely important between these counties. The simple answer is that while they played hard to save their skin in the league, they got the benefit of playing Tipperary when Tipp were in second gear, and when it came to the championship Wexford were hugely disappointing. There are good young hurlers in the county but the sight of Oulart the Ballagh, containing half the county team, playing so poorly against Coolderry in Nowlan Park must have been hugely worrying for Liam Dunne. Indeed Dunne himself failed his tactical exams that day, coming off a distinct second best to Ken Hogan, and with so much work still to be done in the South East, it will be a few years before things get better for them.

9. Offaly (9 – Slight improvement)

As one of the big winners from the league reshuffle, Offaly have been handed a great chance to have a good year in 2012 and with Ollie Baker at the helm, they might just take it. Their one point defeat in Páirc Uí Chaoimh was a huge disappointment and a massive missed opportunity, but it also proved that they have a core group of hurlers capable of troubling the middle tier teams, even if they are still a long way off challenging the big guns. The long term prognosis for the county is very bleak as underage and academy results are appalling, but there is still a strong core group of players there and if David Kenny is finally granted the time to recover properly, they will have a spine capable of competing with anyone. Of course Shane Dooley’s intentions are vital and if he ends up staying in New York he will be almost impossible to replace, but for now they should be looking both to the league and to the Leinster championship with moderate optimism.

8. Cork (5 – Slight disimprovement)

After suggesting that Laois will improve for the recruitment of one famous dual star from Leeside, it seems hypocritical to suggest that the Rebel County themselves won’t benefit for the deployment of an even more famous dual star and former All Ireland winning manager. However 2011 was a terrible year for hurling in Cork and they can thank their lucky stars that they didn’t exit the championship in Páirc Uí Chaoimh against Offaly when a farcical lack of injury time saved them when on the ropes. Against Galway many of their bigger names didn’t appear interested and they just don’t seem to have the leadership they’ll need down the spine of the team. If Cork are good enough to secure a championship win over any of the top four or five counties in 2012, it will mean one of two things – either Jimmy Barry Murphy is a miracle worker, or else every player on the team owes Denis Walsh a huge apology for phoning it in under his leadership. We suspect it won’t be an issue.

Continuing now with the third part in the series, detailing those counties that will be hoping to make a real breakthrough into the top tier in 2012…..

17. Roscommon (16 – Disimprovement)

Few counties better illustrate the inequity of the current provincial structure than Roscommon, who have reached the last twelve of the All Ireland race for each of the last two seasons despite failing to beat any top twenty county in league or championship along the way. That there is talent in the county cannot be questioned and that’s the only reason why they aren’t ranked even lower, but a few cracks are starting to appear that suggest that some of their brightest hopes from the 2006 minor team simply aren’t progressing as well as many supporters would have hoped. Players like Peter Domican, Senan Kilbride and Cathal Cregg would be welcome into any county team in Ireland, but there will be no handy run to the Connacht final this year and as a result it would be a huge surprise to this column if they were still playing football in August.

16. Limerick (17 – slight disimprovement)

A little bit more luck in the early part of the league would have gone a long way and by the time they found their rhythm in the summer, even without talismanic midfielder John Galvin, they looked like a dangerous force in the qualifiers. The draw was extremely kind to them and not many teams would get to reach an All Ireland quarter final beating only division three sides, but it’s hard to be too critical of a team that only lost to Kerry in the championship. If they can continue to create space for what is a very potent forward line they’ll do well, but their league match against Fermanagh will be particularly revealing as no side under Canavan is likely to allow a lot of space to their direct opponents. Expect Fermanagh to write the script for how to neutralise Limerick in 2012.

15. Laois (15 – no change)

Based on league form, Laois deserve to be ranked much higher than this, but in the championship they’ve made little or no impression for some years now. Manager Justin McNulty looked like he was achieving some good things in the county but the poor state of their domestic championship is a concern and many of their younger prospects aren’t progressing as well as they should. They will almost certainly get relegated from division one but if they can learn from playing at that standard, they might just have enough to come through a treacherous first round championship tie against Longford.

14. Meath (11 – Slight disimprovement)

The wisdom in picking a non-Meath manager to take charge of the Royal County for the first time is being questioned at the moment with Seamus McEnaney yet to win over the footballing public in Meath. Up front the county has no problems with a string of capable attacking players but the absence of Nigel Crawford will be keenly felt this year while all across the midfield and half back line there are concerns. Their reputation is masking quite how many problems there are in Meath football at the moment.

13. Monaghan (13 – disimprovement)

Their shocking qualifier performance in Tullamore last year was either the portent of the start of a long term decline or else one bad day, an anomaly to be ignored. Sadly for Monaghan supporters, this column suspects it could be the former. The Farney men have been one of the most competitive and consistent counties in terms of punching above their weight in the last few years but a lot of that was down to Tommy Freeman’s incisive play up front and while Conor McManus has stepped up to a certain degree, some very average footballers have seen significant playing time under Seamus McEneaney. Their attitude to the game means that they won’t slip too far but if we were to predict one championship upset now, Antrim vs Monaghan in Clones in the first round of the Ulster championship would be our first choice.

12. Wexford (14 – Slight improvement)

After a couple of years of stagnation, Wexford finally found their rhythm in 2011 and were very unlucky both in terms of missing out on promotion and in losing out to Limerick in the fourth round of the qualifiers. Indeed Kerry were probably delighted to see Limerick trip up Wexford because the Slaneysiders could have created a much more interesting All Ireland quarter final if they had advanced to meet the Kingdom. They have an experienced squad that physically are a lot more powerful than they’ve been given credit for and by far they look like the most realistic contender for a Leinster title outside of the big two.

11. Galway (10 – improvement)

If you were to design a scenario where a county should be poised to make huge gains in 2012, you’d struggle to create anything more ideal than the situation out west. You have a very strong club championship, a highly talented bunch of young footballers waiting in the wings, a local manager who has earned respect with his achievements and a group of senior players that must be eager to start accumulating the medals that their talent warrants. The problem is that many of these conditions have been in place previously. Time will tell if Alan Mulholland can unlock the world of potential that lies in Galway football, but if he can’t manage it, there’s little hope for anyone.

10. Armagh (12 – No change)

The depth in Armagh football is not as much of a strength as many outside the county believe, but they have some fine individual talents and players like Aaron Kernan are incredibly good role models for the younger players that are coming in. One or two injuries tend to hit the county very hard but they are not as far off the pace as all that. If Jamie Clarke starts replicating his club form in the Ulster Championship, they could be real dark horses to take provincial honours.

9. Derry (9 – Slight improvement)

Last year was a glorious chance for an Ulster title that went astray and one wonders quite how many such chances will come their way. If we were projecting well into the future we’d struggle to be optimistic for the Derry men but in the short term, 2012 has to be a big year for the county. Injury permitting both Paddy and Eoghan Bradley will be available to manager John Brennan and if he can get the two Glenullin brothers working well within the framework of the team, he’ll have a unit capable of a lot of success.

Twas the month before Christmas, and all through the house, not a creature was stirring, not even in the O’Byrne Cup.

The county players currently training frantically and preparing for the 2012 season might beg to differ on the concept of the “winter break”, but for the GAA public, the only action to be found during the month of December is at your local club AGM, where treasurers give out about physios, hurlers give out about football, managers complain about lack of commitment and political coups are executed to varying degrees of success. It might be the kind of drama that members of soccer and rugby clubs can only dream of, but it’s still of little use to the betting public, since not even the most foolhardy bookmaker would like to start betting on who will be installed as the new PRO of Ballygobackwards hurling club, much less whether or not they’ll pass that motion suggesting a change in the structure of the under-14 championship.

However those betting firms out there are very conscious of the fact that if they don’t offer us something, all our money would instead get wasted on folly like Christmas presents or brussels sprouts, so rather than allow such a ridiculous scenario to come about, they’ve suddenly burst out of the blocks with betting for next year’s national football leagues.

It’s very early in the game to make any strong recommendations, however now is a good time to share our early thoughts, perhaps picking off some long shots that may dip in price before a ball is ever thrown in. Looking first at division one of the National Football League, and it’s safe to say that most punters will stay with the big three of Cork, Kerry and Dublin, with Kerry perhaps likely to prove the least popular selection of these three. Colm Cooper will miss at least the first two rounds of the competition against Dublin and Armagh due to his involvement with Dr Crokes, as will several other of the Killarney based players, which will be a stumbling block for a lot of potential backers, however Kerry are well used to losing the first round of the league, while Armagh will certainly be a lot more depleted for their round two meeting due to the absence of the Crossmaglen Rangers contingent. Kerry’s reputation as non-triers in the league might seem justified in the light of their comparitively stronger record in championship football, however the 3/1 on offer from William Hill and Boylesports could yet be a decent price. After all, anyone backing the Kingdom at that price for each National League campaign during the last decade would still be showing a profit now after outright wins in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

The fixture list could have been more kind to Jack O’Connor and his panel as it will send Kerry to both Croke Park and Páirc Uí Chaoimh in the spring, however there are Kerry footballers who have played more county games in Croke Park than in Tralee, while the Leeside venue is hardly unfamiliar territory either.

Of the outsiders in this division, Donegal at 10/1 with Boylesports looks the most intriguing. The Kevin Cassidy saga could be a distraction, but Jim McGuinness’ strongest attribute is his ability to handle the mental side of management and he will undoubtedly find some way to turn a crisis into an opportunity, even if it does look to this outsider like a largely self made crisis. Getting four home games is very important to a remote county like Donegal and their week three battle with Cork at home will be their most significant fixture. They have a great chance of starting off with two wins and could very easily be top of the table if they can cash in on Cork’s huge round trip. While they’d have preferred to play Armagh early in the year when the Crossmaglen players wouldn’t be available, otherwise they can have few complaints about the schedule.

James Horan has made it clear in his first season in charge that he will, rightly, use the league for experimentation and with a good championship behind him, he’s under no pressure to get results next spring. They certainly won’t come easily to Mayo with a very real possibility that they will be underdogs in six out of seven matches. For the moment, we can safely draw a line through them in terms of potential winners, as we can through Armagh who will miss the Crossmaglen players for several rounds. Indeed we could possibly dismiss Down, who have concerns over key central positions and will also miss out on the influence of Martin Clarke, but they still might have an outsider’s chance if they avoid shipping too much punishment in the early rounds.

Other than the 10/1 about Donegal from Boylesports, there’s no price that we would say with 80% confidence will be shorter by the start of the season, so we won’t recommend diverting too much of the Christmas money just yet. But don’t go throwing it all in the collection plate at midnight mass – the New Year isn’t that far away.

Longford vs Tyrone

Longford might not be a big name in terms of the race for the All Ireland senior football championship, but rest assured Tyrone did not want this fixture at all and a one point win would be readily seized by any Tyrone supporter if it was offered to them right now.

Of course Tyrone have the better players and many people felt that they were the better team in their Ulster semi-final against Donegal. However this time last year they faced an Ulster semi-final against Down, and the contrast between the two games is stark. Against Down, Tyrone got off to a bad start but slowly and inexorably took control of the fixture, suffocating the life out of their opponents. Against Donegal they were the beneficiaries of the good start and with Donegal unable to play free flowing attacking football simply by nature of the way they were lined out, they should have had enough about themselves to close out a three or four point win. Instead they got drawn into a dogfight and came off second best against the younger, hungrier dog.

Now they face a trip to Pearse Park, with Longford in flying form after a big win over their Cavan neighbours, and the whole squad moving freely under Glen Ryan. Seán McCormack has provided a nice alternative threat to Brian Kavanagh in the Longford full forward line, their defence is incredibly tenacious and hugely under-rated, and at home they will fear no-one.

Tyrone still have plenty of know-how and should find a way to win, but they don’t look to have the firepower to blow Longford away. Ladbrokes are standing out in the marketplace with 11/10 about Longford plus four and if they’ve made the effort to draw in money, it seems rude not to respond with a moderate bet.

Armagh vs Wicklow

The national consensus on this fixture is that if it were played in Aughrim, Wicklow would have a real chance. They wouldn’t. Armagh got blindsided by a wonderful Derry performance in the Ulster semi-final but it doesn’t suddenly make them a bad team, while the most significant aspect to Wicklow’s home win over Sligo was the fact that Mick O’Dwyer actually used some substitutes. He can field whoever he likes here, Armagh are operating on a different level and Wicklow’s old style football using Seánie Furlong as a target man will get them nowhere in Armagh. Money buyers could take Armagh/Armagh double result at 1/3, while another option could be 7/4 about Armagh scoring more than 1.5 goals.

Laois vs Kildare

This fixture will undoubtedly be a huge test for the character of this Kildare team as nobody could condemn them for feeling hard done by after their last outing in Croke Park. It would be easy to suggest that the last thing they needed now was a local derby against a resurgent Laois team who would be only too delighted to crush their dreams for the year, however this Kildare team is fuelled by passion, commitment and a ridiculous level of energy and drive. This fixture is actually perfect for them. When the bright lights of Croke Park seems far away, there’s nothing like the pleasure of putting one over on your near neighbours to concentrate the mind and get you through a round of the qualifers and get you a step closer to relevance.

In every championship match they’ve played this year and last, the correct betting play has been waiting until half time and then backing Kildare in running on whatever handicap or match market is available. This could be the game where Kildare finally start the match well. This will be a very well attended game in front of the TV cameras, and with the Mullaghbawn dimension to really spice things up. Kildare/Kildare double result is our recommendation, while this could also be a good time to dabble in Ladbrokes’ “Dream Start” market. 4/1 about Kildare to get the first three scores, while still seething internally at the injustice they suffered.

Meath vs Galway

When the prices for this match were first posted, yours truly raised an eyebrow. Yes Galway were disgracefully bad in their one championship outing this year, and yes, the stock of Connacht football is at an all time low. But still, 5/2 about a bad division one team beating a bad division two side? Hard to fathom.

Then the Galway team was released appeared to contain a lot of positive changes, including the return of Michael Meehan and debuts for a few very talented young footballers. Still 5/2. Then today, the Racing Post Goalpost supplement comes out, and there is a veritable chorus of opinion that Meath should win well?

Time may highlight the flaws in the judgement of your columnist, but right now, it’s hard not to feel like the small boy in the fable of the Emporor’s New Clothes. This Meath team, while heavily laden with individual talent, has done nothing this year to command this type of respect. They beat Louth well, but frankly this column would have been a lot more impressed if they had scored 2-14 than 5-8. This Meath team is not scoring points all year, and only once has scored more than 14 times. They’ve relied on goals to carry them through matches, and that’s a risky strategy.

As for Galway’s problems, well undoubtedly they exist, but too much is being made of their Connacht Semi-Final defeat to Mayo. Yes the standard of football was poor, but they were away from home playing Connacht championship, renewing one of the biggest rivalries in football, with their main attacker out injured and on a truly horrendous day for football. Yes they had a bad day, but the media reaction has been completely overdone. While several players underperformed, Tomás O’Flaharta has the luxury of being able to bring in All Ireland under-21 winners to freshen up the squad, which is a nice option to have.

Meath are probably entitled to be narrow favourites here, but 4/6 would be fair, not 4/9. Ladbrokes are joint best in the market at 5/2 about Galway and while the Tribesmen are the type of team that could decide not to bother and lose badly, if they do take to the field in Páirc Tailteann with a real drive to prove their doubters wrong, they are well capable of a win. That price is way out of line and well worth taking.

The first round of the qualifiers is a unique test for punters in that it is often a test of the ability to read minds and mindsets as much as it is a test of the ability to read footballing skill and attributes.

Most of the match ups usually lack the local rivalry element that add a little bit of heat to the encounter, and in many cases players are often more concerned about catching a flight to America, or perhaps even getting back to their clubs and getting on with domestic affairs, than they are with prolonging a county season that is often going nowhere to begin with.

Either way, here’s Off the Ground’s assessment of the eight football qualifiers taking place tomorrow.

London vs Fermanagh

This column’s honest assessment is this – it’s impossible to say what the right price is, except that 1/2 Fermanagh and 15/8 London, as Ladbrokes have chalked up, is simply not it. This was not the draw Fermanagh wanted at all, on any level. They have one of the smallest budgets on the intercounty circuit and a €20k trip to London was not what the doctor ordered at all. With London on a high, the general perception is that Fermanagh are ripe for the picking, and the money has reflected this, piling into the Exiles who were as big as 5/1 in places when the odds were first released.

If Fermanagh buy into all this, then London should be favourites. If Fermanagh travel over here determined not to become the first county to lose to London in the qualifiers and believing that there is still something to be salvaged out of this season, then they are 1/6 shots. After all London are still the same county that manage one league win over anyone other than Kilkenny every couple of years. As we said, 1/2 is not right, but ascertaining the correct odds is another matter entirely. The lot of the compiler is an unhappy one here.

Fermanagh minus three at 6/5 looks like the best bet here, given that even though their best players are at home, those that travel still have a lot of pride in the jersey and won’t lie down, and London have lost the element of surprise.

Clare vs Down

Clare have better footballers than they are often given credit for, and if they smelled blood in the water, they would be a real dangerous outsider. Unfortunately Down is simply too big a target, they needed a Cavan, Sligo, Offaly or Antrim to come to Ennis. The retirement of John Clarke, the injury to Danny Hughes, uncertainty over the defensive credentials of the half back line, all these issues still have to be addressed by James McCartan, but they won’t be solved this week. Either way, Down will win here and probably cover the spread in the process.

Louth vs Meath

Remember all that stuff in the first paragraph about how qualifiers often lack the bite due to counties meeting that have no axe to grind? Well scratch that for this one.

It’s a huge pity that this tie couldn’t take place in Louth, because this could have been a humdinger of a tie if it was played in Drogheda with supporters hanging from the rafters, baying for Royal County blood. That wasn’t possible, but even so Louth could be in with a chance here.

Much of the discussion after Kildare’s Leinster quarter final win over Meath centred on Kildare’s inability to shoot, which was fair comment but still missed the point from a Meath perspective. Meath won 50% of the primary possession in that game at least, and yet they had less than half the number of chances as Kildare.

Meath simply don’t know how to turn possession into scoring chances under Banty and a Meath team playing possession football is a round peg trying to fit into a square hole – it’s just not natural. Paddy Keenan can spoil the midfield at least, he won’t meet anyone as good as Brendan Murphy here, and while the Louth half forward line is hugely underwhelming, if Meath turn over ball the same way as they did against Kildare, then Lennon, Maguire and Rooney will get chances.

Louth being Louth, a heartbreaking defeat is always possible, so 6/5 about Louth plus two is the best play.

Offaly vs Monaghan

Even as an Offaly native, calling this one is tough. Offaly have the players to give Monaghan a tough time in Tullamore, but banking on them to be in the right mindset to do so is a risky game. The Wexford game hurt this team and management badly, and subsequent events that have accused them of being good-time-charlies can’t have gone down well either. In many counties that would lead to a backlash, but sometimes backlashes in Offaly don’t always work out how one would imagine. They often take place far away from the field of play.

Anton Sullivan is a huge loss and while the team named is certainly not that which will start, the withdrawal of John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan robs Tom Cribbin of several options so there won’t be that many surprises.

If Offaly get goals, this could be close, but they’ll need the rub of the green because they have proven that they can’t overcome any bad luck in the middle of games.

Laois vs Tipperary

The accepted wisdom regarding this fixture is that Laois were going the right way under Justin McNulty, they just overdid the defensive play and got blown away by a strong Dublin team. That’s as may be, but Tipperary played a strong Kerry team and got no luck, so it’s very early to say that they are way off the pace. Tipperary are a solid division three team, no better, no worse, while Laois are a cut above that. However the Laois half forward line is desperately short on scoring power and there remain question marks over the form of both Kingston and Tierney. Laois should win, but 1/3 with Ladbrokes is way too short. Instead, take even money about less than 28.5 points in the game. It’s hard to see either side scoring fifteen points in this game, never mind both of them.

Cavan vs Longford

It says a lot that despite all the comments directed at the problems in Leinster football, one of the weakest counties in the province is favoured to win away from home against an Ulster team who would probably be regarded as no worse than seventh in the northern province right now. This is a great fixture for the locals who share a keen rivalry but rarely get to meet on the field. Longford to win is the accepted wisdom, but it mightn’t be that simple. No bet here, there’s just too many talented forwards on that Cavan team who could hit form at any time.

Wicklow vs Sligo

What looked like a reasonable assignment for Sligo when the fixture was drawn up has grown more and more difficult as their list of absentees has extended. Johnny Davey and David Kelly are unable to return, Ken Sweeney has followed Keelan Cawley out of Ireland, Brendan Curran and Alan Costello are suspended and all in all Sligo look to have their work cut out for them. Ladbrokes appear to be of the same mind here, offering Sligo at a best price of even money, while only giving 11/10 to Wicklow backers. In a neutral venue, with both sides at full strength, Sligo would be 2/5 here – right now, Wicklow probably deserve narrow favouritism and would be the tentative call.

Antrim vs Westmeath

Two sides that were desperately poor in the first round, but the managers have taken a very different approach to this qualifier tie. Liam Bradley has picked the same Antrim side as started against Donegal, while Pat Flanagan has reverted to type with a very defensive alignment, including two wing forwards who would usually be known as defenders. The other side of this is that the selection of Denis Corroon as a wing back is an unusual one, but one that Gary Connaughton could look to target with kickouts.

The Westmeath hurlers would happily testify as to how difficult it is to play an away fixture in Belfast, so far from home, however the 13/10 makes plenty of appeal even so. Dessie Dolan and Denis Glennon is a fine inside forward pairing and while they were out-gunned against Wexford, Antrim simply don’t have the same scoring power to match them blow for blow. Another low scoring battle could be in prospect here, but we’ll give the tentative nod to the outsiders to sneak it. In fact Westmeath to win by 1-3pts would be our favourite winning margin bet of the week.

Kildare forward Eamonn Callaghan could be the man to bash the bookies this weekend.

Callaghan looks an excellent bet at 20/1 with Boyles to be first goalscorer against Meath at Croke Park in Sunday’s Leinster quarter-final clash.

He has has searing pace, a huge work rate and an ability to turn up on the end of moves.

Callaghan is a Croke Park player, who thrives on a big pitch, but the only problem is he’s played very little football this spring due to a foot injury.

For the more cautious punter 8/1 anytime goalscorer on Callaghan may be the way to go as Meath possess a serious goal threat themselves with Joe Sheridan and Stephen Bray in particular.

In the other Leinster tie the current Dublin side are laden with men who know where the net is so anytime goal scorer might be the best way to go in their clash with Laois.

Laois didn’t concede any goals against Longford, but don’t be fooled by that, the Midlanders could have had two or three majors if they’d finished well.

And on Laois’ last trip to Croke Park Donegal hit them for two goals even though they played the last half hour with 14 men, while they didn’t manage any themselves.

Dublin have grabbed goals galore this year, hitting 18 in their eight league games including the final.

The odds on Bernard and Alan Brogan and Diarmuid Connolly scoring goals are short enough so look to Paul Flynn at 8/1 with Boyles for anytime goalscorer.

Flynn’s finishing lets him down at times, but his impressive physical conditioning means he gets in some great positions, and more goals are coming at some point.

If it has to be first goalscorer the best value is Kevin McManamon at 10/1.

His constant movement means he gets into some great positions and could be the man on the end of a line break by either Brogan or Connolly for a tap in goal.

McManamon could also wind up in the full forward line at some point – in a switch with Alan Brogan – where his direct running could cause havoc, and he knows how to finish.

Laois are not a goalscoring side, but as a real outside bet Colm Begley (40/1 Bet 365) and John O’Loughlin (25/1 – Bet 365) as last goalscorer might be worth a look.

The thinking is there could be a late consolation goal in this for Laois, and O’Loughlin, who was surprisingly poor against Longford, will want to show the class he possess.

Begley got on the end of a good move against Longford and hit the post, so he might be worth watching.

One interesting market is the Sunday game man of the match offered by Powers.

After the mess they made of Longford/Laois two weeks ago, when Longford’s Dermot Brady was clearly the best player on the park, and didn’t even make the top three, this could go any way.

Were Laois to really up their game they have some very underrated defenders in Cahir Healy (66/1), Darren Strong (50/1) and Kevin Meaney (50/1).

Strong was excellent in the league final loss to Donegal and Healy did a great job on Paul Barden against Longford.

Healy could get the man marking job on Bernard Brogan, and with the Footballer of the Year’s huge profile, a big display would put him in the running for man of the match.

In Ulster Sean Cavanagh may be lining out at midfield for Tyrone in their clash with Monaghan, but he is often more of a goal threat coming from deep and the 6/1 with Powers for anytime goalscorer looks good value.

Tyrone +3 at 11/10 with William Hill should be snapped up, as should Dublin at 5/4 +4 versus Laois with William Hill.

Down in Munster Limerick’s Ger Collins might be worth a look at 11/1 for first goalscorer in their clash with Kerry.

Limerick always burst out of the blocks against Munster’s big guns, although the worry is that without John Galvin it may not happen this time.

Collins is Limerick’s penalty taker, and a good one at it, as he showed in scoring a last ditch penalty to put last year’s titanic qualifier against Cork into extra-time.

Again though, Galvin won that penalty, and he won’t be there this year.

TOP BETS

DOUBLE – Tyrone -3 versus Monaghan 11/10 William Hill and Dublin +4 versus Laois William Hill 5/4
Sean Cavanagh Tyrone 6/1 anytime goalscorer versus Monaghan – Powers
Eamonn Callaghan Kildare 20/1 first goalscorer versus Meath – Boyles
Eamonn Callaghan Kildare 8/1 anytime goalscorer versus Meath – Boyles
Paul Flynn Dublin 8/1 anytime goalscorer versus Laois – Boyles
Cahir Healy 66/1 RTE man of the match Dublin versus Laois – Powers
John O’Loughlin Laois 25/1 last goalscorer versus Dublin – Boyles

A double header involving Meath, Kildare, Laois and Dublin is pretty much a dream Sunday as far as the Leinster Council are concerned and all the furore and furrowing of brows regarding low attendances will hopefully be set to one side for what looks like a cracking Bank Holiday Sunday of football in Croke Park. This is a double header that deserves a big crowd and one that can hopefully set the football season alight in the same way that Tipperary and Cork got the hurling underway in style last week.

The action begins with an East Leinster derby between two sides that are generally regarded as the second and third best teams in the province. Kildare’s ranking as the main danger to Dublin is universally agreed, although Meath would have been considered to be quite close to the Lily Whites before the Banty Bandwagon began to derail. Kildare are currently the 4/7 favourites with Ladbrokes for this match and are rated as two points better on their handicap betting market. There is a lot of respect for Meath’s tradition and history is included in that price.

After all, Kildare were the better side between these two teams last year, they beat them in the league, both head to head and overall, they’ve had a good game against Wicklow to get their season underway and they’ve continued to work well under the guidance of Kieran McGeeney. Quite simply, if Meath pull off an upset here then all the training and preparation textbooks can be thrown out the window, and teams would be as well off recalling elder players and dumping selectors all Spring.

Meath are still Meath, and there will be a nervousness about backing against them at any time. Still, there is something fundamentally askew about a team that has attackers of the calibre of the Brays, the Sheridans, Cian Ward, Shane O’Rourke, Brian Farrell and a great under-21 prospect in Michael Newman all to pick from and yet they go back to Graham Geraghty. All is not well in the Royal camp and Kildare minus two points is a solid bet this week.

Dublin are very hotly fancied to get over the challenge of Laois in the second Leinster quarter final taking place this Sunday, but Justin McNulty will be quietly happy with the way that his team are being widely written off and they could have a surprise in store for the Dubs.

Certainly on league and championship form over the last twelve months, Dublin are entitled to be rated alongside Cork and Kerry as leading All Ireland contenders. Laois, despite making good strides under their new Armagh boss, are not at that level yet. Nonetheless there is a lot to like about this Laois team. McNulty has moulded a defensive unit that involves a lot of new parts, but it is beginning to come together. They aren’t as divided and unruly a group as they were under Mick O’Dwyer, while their midfield partnership of Brendan Quigley and Padraig Clancy should hold a fielding advantage over their Dublin rivals.

Of course Dublin are capable of winning this game with plenty to spare, however the first game out in championship is always a tricky one to overcome and division two finalists are not the kind of opponents that Dublin should be 1/7 against. It will be particularly interesting to see how Dublin’s zonal defence copes with Laois’s rugby-style attacking line, where players look to come on to the ball from deep running lines rather than creating space ahead of the man in possession.

This will be a fascinating measure of where these two counties stand right now and odds of 11/2 about Laois are very, very tempting. Dublin may have moved up to a new level but so has Leinster football in general, with the exceptions of Offaly and Wicklow. If Dublin get a goal early, Laois will be forced to chase the game, and that won’t suit them. In that instance, get on Dublin in running. But if Laois can keep it tight, then this game could get very interesting towards the end and that 11/2 could come into play very quickly. A moderate bet is definitely worth it on risk vs reward grounds.

Action in all four provinces this week means that the football championship is well and truly underway, with local derbies, big handicaps, banana skins and everything else all on offer. The only thing genuinely missing is a close game that the bookies find a favourite difficult to agree on.

Going through the games one by one:

Laois vs Longford

The division two finalists versus the division four winners is the first televised game this Sunday and perhaps one of the most interesting from a neutral perspective. Longford’s season gathered momentum fromFebruary when they salvaged a draw in their first league match of the season against the Rossies and while Roscommon phoned it in for the Croke Park final, the feeling of lifting a trophy is always a nice one to carry through your next few training sessions. Longford’s win over Meath in a recent challenge match was very encouraging from the point of view of the Shannonsiders and certainly they have plenty of top class attacking talent.

The concern for Longford, and indeed the reason this column feels that Laois will win on Sunday by four or five points, is that they look way overmatched at midfield. McElvaney and Brady are two excellent footballing midfielders, but contrasted against the fielding power and presence of Clancy and Quigley, not to mention Colm Begley coming into the mix from wing forward, it’s very possible that Longford will be working with very litle primary possession. Laois will have to keep the goals out but they are excellent at keeping the scoreboard moving and not going through long scoring droughts. Narrowly, the preference here is for Laois minus three, and over 29.5 points, as is currently on offer with Ladbrokes.

Kildare vs Wicklow

As we discussed in our Leinster preview earlier this week, Kildare have kept a lot in reserve this Spring and it’s difficult to really get a feel for where they are. Mick O’Dwyer’s presence in the Garden county can sometimes blind people to the real state of affairs in Wicklow but they are a division four team and a couple of good one off days in the championship doesn’t change that. This isn’t a game where Off the Ground would be in a huge hurry to get bets on, but if we were, we’d probably back Kildare to cover. In truth this game is no bet country however.

Kerry vs Tipperary

Tipperary manager John Evans was in the news this week putting a brave face on his county’s draw, but realistically this fixture is not what Tipperary wanted at all. The Premier men have overtaken Limerick as the leading also-ran in Munster football, but they are still a long way off the big two and they need some wins this year to continue moving in the right direction. Ladbrokes’ eight point handicap looks about right, and while they will probably get a lot of players on their over 31.5 total points at 10/11, we wouldn’t recommend that play. Tipperary play a very defensive game which is dependent on absorbing opposition pressure and Barry Grogan carrying the attack. It’s hard to see Tipperary scoring more than eleven or twelve times here since they are not built to chase deficits. and a final tally of 1-16 to 0-11 or similar is possible.

Cork vs Clare

These two sides are a world apart and the eleven point handicap is impossible to call since Cork could cover this if they want to, but if its 0-16 to 1-5 going into the last ten minutes, how motivated will the Rebels really be? Cork will cruise through this game and win by a margin commensurate with their energy expended, however that’s not a good basis for betting.

Instead we suggest looking at the goals markets, in particular the “Who will score the first goal”. Cork are not set up to score plenty of majors while Clare will be chasing the game. 12/5 about Clare to score the first goal is a very attractive bet, simply because they are much more likely to go after goals here. Cork will score twenty times here in all likelihood, but would anyone be surprised if all twenty of those scores were points?

Derry vs Fermanagh

It’s impossible to go through all the turmoil and upheaval that Fermanagh experienced in the Spring and not be affected later in the year. Fermanagh are wonderful battlers but if you’re struggling to get through a division four league campaign, you’re simply not prepared to extract a championship result out of Celtic Park. Losing Paddy Bradley is a real blow to Derry’s chances in the long run, but it shouldn’t affect them here. Certainly his loss does not compare with the amount of players Fermanagh won’t have available to them from their 2010 squad. The Erne men may regroup in the qualifiers but they will do well to stay within the handicap here – we suspect they won’t.

Sligo vs Leitrim

Ladbrokes are very much on Leitrim’s side here, offering a four point handicap as opposed to the five that is generally available and this column would be in agreement with that view. Headlines regarding Leitrim bringing in seven debutants are a little un-nerving from the point of view of those contemplating a bet on the GAA’s most notorious underdogs, but many of those debutants played some excellent football for Leitrim’s juniors in their recent narrow defeat to Mayo in the Connacht JFC semi final, and others have played some really good football in the national league. Sligo are missing Mark Breheny and David Kelly up front, the selection of Eamonn O’Hara at centre forward suggests that they are going to play defensively since there is no way that the tanned Tourlestrane man is going to line up on the Leitrim side of midfield, and in Emlyn Mulligan Leitrim have an excellent orchestrator of their own at eleven.

Leitrim are good at playing competitively in games, they are not good at winning. Sligo to win by 1-3pts at 10/3 is a cracking bet and definitely the best wager of the week.

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