Magic Sign pointing the way

January 21st, 2011 by Kevin Egan

This columnist had set aside this evening to discuss Sunday’s Leinster club final between Rhode and Kilmacud, however upon looking up in the sky, the absence of our thunder was noticeable – it had been stolen.

Neil Walsh, the punters’ regular sparring partner dwelling at the helm of the Ladbrokes GAA department, has struck the nail with a clean blow on the head when he suggested that Rhode to lead at half time and Crokes to win the match at 5/1 is a value bet. Indeed it is much better than a value bet, it is a bet that it is very easy to envisage paying out.

Crokes’ tendency to start slowly and slowly move through the gears has been well documented and both Garrycastle and Portlaoise can testify to that fact. The aspect of this game that Neil didn’t touch upon was Rhode’s mental fragility, indeed an affliction that has curtailed all of Offaly football for the past decade.

Rhode’s collapse in this fixture two years ago was widely attributed to some poor goalkeeping on the day and certainly that played a part, but it didn’t explain why Rhode as a collective force fell asunder. They had enough artillery to overcome an unfortunate concession, but they misfired spectacularly in moving the ball up the field and ended up empty handed after scoring a meagre point in the second half hour. It’s no coincidence that Rhode have had several shots at this Leinster title but have nonetheless failed to get over the line – they don’t like the finish line, and generally wobble as it looms. In Offaly, they’re usually well in front at that point – but against Kilmacud, they are unlikely to have that luxury.

As a proud Offaly man, this columnist would love to be wrong about this, but Rhode have still shown at regular intervals that they could be vulnerable when four or five points in front. Clara got a late goal against them to nearly reel them in at O’Connor Park in the county final, Old Leighlin came very close to doing the same, while Roy Malone’s late goal against Skryne masked the fact that the Meath champions had got within a point from a seemingly beaten stance as well. If Rhode win this game, they’ll either come from behind, or else get a bit of luck at a crucial time. In the absence of that, a Crokes’ comeback will feel inexorable.

For one other football bet this week, have a look at UCD at 15/8 to beat Louth. UCD haven’t gone on a recruiting spree in the same way some other colleges have, however they have a regular inflow of capable young footballers and their wins away to Meath and Carlow carry some merit, certainly at least as much praise as Louth have earned so far this year.

Louth’s tradition as a good January team precedes them, however that still doesn’t justify 1/2 in what should be a very competitive game. UCD have a good array of players, a real powerhouse at midfield in Laois’s John O’Loughlin, and have improved quietly to the point of being genuine Sigerson Cup contenders. At 15/8, they are well worth a small, speculative punt.

A safe Port in wintry conditions

November 5th, 2010 by Kevin Egan

The return of Intercounty football may be a few months away yet, but this weekend’s televised clash between Portlaoise and Kilmacud Crokes will feature more than enough top class talent to come very close to the real thing. The vagaries of the draw this year have given us two mouthwatering club clashes in two weeks, though Crossmaglen’s excellence last week took from the competitiveness of their tie with St Galls. Still, it’s a strange football fan who wouldn’t have enjoyed watching the Armagh champions exert their power last Sunday.

Portlaoise and Kilmacud Crokes would be similarly respected in a Leinster context and on paper, it’s difficult to separate these two heavyweight contenders this weekend. Between them they’ve won four of the last six Leinster titles, and both clubs are packed with talent to the point that the absence of top class players and former All star nominees like Aidan Fennelly and Paul Griffin hasn’t been a barrier to domestic success.

Portlaoise looked to be in unstoppable form as the Laois championship progressed and the concession of a combined total of 2-3 in their semi final and quarter final matches suggested that their showdown with Arles Kilcruise was likely to be a little bit one sided. This turned out to be anything but the case and it took a late goal from Paul Cahillane to sneak a 1-8 to 0-8 victory against the Carlow border club. However any notions of a dip in form were blown away by their 2-11 to 0-14 win in a very high class first round win over Moorefield of Kildare.

If Portlaoise hadn’t come through that difficult tie, it would be easy to see why Kilmacud would be favourites here, but with the reigning Leinster champions having proven themselves to be very definitely in form, there is simply no excuse for 5/4 being available about a home win. Zach Tuohy’s return from Australia has given them another very potent attacking weapon, they have a very cohesive and tough defence built around two outstanding central players in Cahir Healy and Tipperary’s Hugh Coghlan and while they may concede a little ground to Crokes around the middle of the field, they are used to using O’Moore Park’s wide expanses to minimise any deficit in that area. However even in that regard, news of a potential injury to Niall Corkery would greatly diminish Crokes’ perceived advantage in that sector.

A quick look at Kilmacud’s teamsheet serves as an easy reminder as to why the Stillorgan club are so well fancied in provincial competition, but a lot of their star names don’t perform with any real consistency. In the last four rounds of the Dublin senior championship, Brian Kavanagh was the only Crokes forward who scored more than a single point in more than one of those games. Barry O’Rorke kicked 0-4 in the semi final, Mark Vaughan scored 1-2 in the final while Pat Burke and Ray Cosgrove each scored 0-3 against St Sylvesters, but none of these players were able to repeat that form. Kavanagh will have a real tough test against Cahir Healy and if the Longford man can be closed down, Crokes could be in real trouble here.

Of course Kilmacud have to be respected and by no stretch of the imagination would a win for the Dublin champions be a shock, but their valuation as 4/5 favourites away from home against a team with a good Leinster championship win under their belts reeks of the bookmakers getting a little bit of glitter in their eyes from looking at their teamsheet. Portlaoise are well capable of securing a result here, and at 10/11 plus one point on the handicap betting, they make even more appeal. This column would suggest a 3pt bet at that price, with the additional proviso to add two further points to the stake if the rumours on Hill16.ie about Ross O’Carroll not making it home turn out to be true.

Port's experience to ensure safe navigation of Leinster waters

October 28th, 2009 by Kevin Egan

As we discussed last week, provincial and All Ireland club honours are very hard to win at the best of times, and usually impossible to secure if clubs don’t serve an apprenticeship of sorts. In almost every instance, teams need to by win their club championship on a couple of occasions and learn the art of inter-county club competition before any silverware comes their way. In an All Ireland context, that still leaves plenty of contenders at this time of year, but at provincial level, there can be some excellent betting opportunities as a result, with many candidates simply not viable winners.

There are some caveats to this rule to be borne in mind all the same. De la Salle came from nowhere last year, but the important point was that their first game was against a similarly inexperienced outfit, and their narrow win over Sarsfields suddenly left them in a Munster decider. If a new team can get a run going, then they can often cause a shock, but without that launching pad, they have little or no hope.

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