The GAA might pride itself on being an all-inclusive organisation, but a quick look at the media coverage for national league games will tell you where their interests really lie. Expect full page spreads on the big battles in division one, plenty of coverage of Mickey Harte and Kieran McGeeney as they attempt to drag their respective teams out of division two, while everyone else fights for the scraps from the Masters’ table!

However here at Starbets, we’re nothing if not pragmatic. A 2/1 winner in a division four basement battle watched by five men, three maor uisce and a dog is just as good as a 2/1 winner at Croke Park or Páirc Uí Chaoimh, so here now is our preview for the first week of division 3 and division 4 action.

Antrim vs Sligo

These two counties have become joined at the hip in recent years and this will be their eighth meeting since 2006 in the league, meaning that they have met each other more often than any other pairing in that time. Whether it’s promotion or relegation, neither county likes to do anything without the other and as such it’s no surprise that the bookies are finding it hard to split them in advance of tonight’s battle at Casement Park. Boylesports make the home side their ever-so-slight favourites, while Hills give the most tentative of nods to the visitors from the North West, but every other layer is right on the fence, offering even money each of two. Initially we were inclined towards sharing the view held by Hills, but the news that David Kelly doesn’t start was enough for us to recant. The Tubbercurry forward has been in fantastic form for DCU so far this season and while we think that Sligo might be able to get a good result without him, unless you’re in Casement Park and you see his distinctive red hair bobbing into the corner for the throw in, this is a no bet game.

London vs Fermanagh

The odds of 1/7 and 1/8 about a Fermanagh win might seem odd in the light of the most recent result between these two teams, but there is no contrast between the Fermanagh team of 2011 and the 2012 version under the tutelege of Peter Canavan. If there was a handicap bet to be had, we’d be suggesting that Fermanagh would cover, but there isn’t, so our hands remain in our pockets for this one too.

Clare vs Waterford

Not many football supporters from north of the Suir river will realise quite how talented the two O’Gorman brothers are, and how much of a blow their defection to the hurling panel is to John Kiely and his selectors. There still are some fine footballers in this Waterford team and they can certainly consider themselves unlucky to have made the drop last year after three of their five league defeats were by a goal or less, but Clare looked decent in preseason competition. Home advantage is worth a couple of points, while the availability of the Kilmurry-Ibrickane players is worth a few more.

Kilkenny vs Wicklow

Kilkenny’s forfeiture against Louth in the O’Byrne Cup could easily turn out to be their best result of the year. Wicklow to win by as much as they like, not that this is any use to us.

Leitrim vs Limerick

Limerick will feel very hard done by to be playing division four football and they now share with Roscommon the remarkable record of having reached an All Ireland quarter final one year only to play basement league football the year after. And no game more typifies division four than a trip to Páirc Séan MacDiarmada to play Leitrim. There is no glamour or glory to be had, but anything less than complete and total commitment will see you coming home empty handed. Limerick to win, but not without a fight.

Longford vs Offaly

The few bits of 8/11 about Longford that were floating around earlier in the week have disappeared a long time ago and now 4/7 is the best that can be had about a home win here. It’s easy to see why those prices were taken – Longford are much further on in their development while Offaly are going into battle without their standout player in Niall McNamee. Longford should win with a bit over a goal to spare.

Roscommon vs Tipperary

Tipperary bring a very strong, seasoned outfit up to Kiltoom for this fixture and against a Roscommon team shorn of their St Brigids players, they will be expected to come home with the points. However it may not turn out to be that simple against a Roscommon team with plenty of scoring still in their team. Logic dictates that the 11/8 from Hills about an away win is the way to go, but we’re going to stay on the fence in this one in terms of the result.

However these are two good goalscoring sides and neither is either team particularly convincing in the full back line. Ladbrokes are offering 3/1 about over 2.5 goals in this game and that’s a decent shout here.

Wexford vs Cavan

Our antepost tip for the division faces what should be their toughest fixture of the entire campaign when they travel to Wexford Park to take on the antepost favourites for this extremely competitive division. Here at Starbets we were all set to recommend Cavan as a live outsider for this fixture, but that was at a time when we expected them to be offered at something around 3/1. 2/1 doesn’t appeal nearly as much and instead the best play is to stick with Cavan on the outright market. Even if they lose here they still have a great chance, while a win will see their outright price slashed right into 7/2 or 4/1.

Division 3 and Division 4 recommendations

Clare vs Waterford: Clare @ 4/5 (Bet365, Boylesports, Powers, Hills)

Leitrim vs Limerick: Limerick to win by 1-3 pts @ 13/5 (Powers)

Longford vs Offaly: Longford -1 pt @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Roscommon vs Tipperary: Over 2.5 goals @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes)

Perhaps because there aren’t any matches to bet on, or perhaps because the NFL season is reaching a climax and we decided to borrow an idea from across the Atlantic Ocean to end the year, this column took the somewhat traditional decision to end the year with an attempt at that great debate topic, alternatively known as the great space filler, the power rankings.

When Martin Breheny of the Indo puts together a similar list at the end of the season, the ratings largely follow along the lines of the championship performances that year, probably as much to avoid controversy as for any other reason. While this Starbets list is obviously taking into account 2011 performances as the most significant factor, we are also attaching some weight to the general potential of counties in question. After all, Galway footballers won one competitive match this year out of nine – yet it is a brave compiler who would rank them in the bottom half of sides playing football.

Equally there are sides ranked above teams that beat them in significant games – the most obvious example being Kildare, ranked above Donegal. The reasoning here again is similar – Donegal got the result on that particular day in August, but only the most irrational mind would ignore that an erroneous square ball decision was the only reason they even got a chance to play extra time. If the sides met again tomorrow in a vital battle, Kildare would be favourites, and rightly so. Anyway, let us begin our voyage of unsubstantiated opinion, spread  across four columns and counting down. Counties are listed in order of Starbets ranking, but with the bookmaker ranking in brackets, calculated based on an aggregate of all 2012 All Ireland odds, and the prediction for how our ranking will change over the next twelve months.

33. New York (33 – no change)

A nice easy one to begin. New York’s participation in the All Ireland championship owes more to tradition than logic at this stage and perhaps the time is coming when New York should have to compete with teams from Boston or San Francisco to secure their slot in the Connacht Championship. That’s a debate for another forum however.For now, expect them to remain, and to continue shipping beatings.

32. London (28 – No change)

Slight controversy here, as not many would rate London so poorly after their incredible summer. However while they did have a good campaign, ultimately all they achieved was a win over a Fermanagh team that clearly were not ready for championship football. Anyone who has also played football in London knows that the issue of travelling from South to North for training is a very real one, to be taken very seriously. Southside clubs Fulham Irish and Round Towers were the London Senior and Intermediate champions in 2011, and their players will find it difficult to commit to playing county football, another blow for the Exiles. Without the element of surprise, London will struggle this year.

31. Leitrim (32 – slight improvement)

It may seem odd to rank Leitrim so poorly after a reasonable summer, but there is a feeling that they really peaked in beating Sligo and they will struggle to find more this year. The county isn’t producing enough good young players and while they can always catch a team on the hop, they’ll struggle to beat any other county who play to their potential against Leitrim.

30. Carlow (29 – slight improvement)

Carlow have always had good footballers, but getting them to work together for the greater good of the county has been a difficult art. Their win over Louth was a great occasion for the county, but now they have to build on that, starting with the league where they need to make a real push at escaping division 4.

29. Waterford (30 – no change/slight disimprovement)

Waterford put in a powerful effort in their 2011 NFL Division 3 campaign and to end the year relegated was a devastating blow. They remain very powerful around the middle third of the field for a division four team but there is no sign of that all -important elusive scoring inside forward coming up through their ranks.

28. Clare (31 – no change)

Clare had a glorious chance to make it out of division four last year but they fell at the closing hurdles and their Munster championship campaign ended with predictable results. Nonetheless they have some fine individual players and their level of talent stands equal to at least ten other counties in Ireland. As such it’s hard to rate them too poorly.

27. Wicklow (27 – No change/slight disimprovement)

As discussed in the previous column discussing division four, the biggest drawback to bringing Mick O’Dwyer in as your manager is that there will come a point where he will leave. Underage and personal development of players will have been neglected, and quite often transferred players will return home, though Thomas Walsh beat the rush by getting out already. Nothing that the county has done at minor or under-21 level suggests that a real bounce is coming and a first round tie against Meath looks ominous.

26. Fermanagh (26 – improvement)

This is still a county full of committed footballers, and the recruitment of Peter Canavan as manager has to be a significant step in the right direction. Getting out of division four is the immediate priority and Peter will know that no matter how much improvement he gets out of his team, beating Down is probably out of reach just yet. Nonetheless the future is a lot brighter and nobody believes for a minute that 2011 was a fair reflection of Fermanagh’s ability.

Limerick vs Offaly

The reasons to go against Limerick are plentiful, and certainly if Offaly come close to replicating their performance against Monaghan, they should come through this fixture with relative ease. Losing heavily to Kerry wouldn’t be something that a lot of counties would lose sleep over, however in 2010 Limerick came desperately close to beating Kerry in a Munster Final and to have lost so much ground to them in the space of twelve months must be hugely disconcerting. Injuries to Jim O’Donovan, Eoin Joy and John Galvin rob them of a lot of presence around the midfield sector, not to mention the inspirational leadership that Galvin brings to any game.

However there is also plenty of cause to hold fire here – Offaly’s performance in O’Connor Park against Monaghan was hewn out of a fierce desire to prove a point after letting themselves down so badly against Wexford. Their need to set the record straight in front of their home supporters (and three times as many Monaghan supporters) was palpable and it’s far from certain that they’ll have the same passion for performance now that they are no longer the subject of criticism on the national airwaves. On the grounds that if they play well, they can win well, but without wanting to risk too much capital on the psychology involved, we’ll take 8/1 from Ladbrokes about Offaly winning by 7-9pts inclusive.

Antrim vs Carlow

Antrim are marginally the better team, they have home advantage, and they have some momentum after winning their most recent game – all advantages in their favour. However while these advantages are useful, they do not explain odds of 1/7 Antrim and 11/2 Carlow. Carlow’s win over Louth was a huge milestone for the county and having got a taste for success and now been handed a winnable tie in the qualifiers, it would be a huge shock if Carlow lay down easily in Belfast. Luke Dempsey’s grievances over the throw in time are understandable but still it’s hardly the huge obstacle that he suggests, while he’s also well versed in plotting through the qualifiers from his time with Westmeath and Longford.

Antrim are a very solid team but they don’t score much, and much like a boxer without a knockout punch, they always give a weaker opponent a chance. Seán Gannon is a big loss, but there are scores in Willie Minchin, his replacement, while Cormac Mullins is there to come on at any stage. Purely on price, 11/2 is worth a shout.

London vs Waterford

Perhaps this columnist is just suffering from a touch of the Doubting Thomas syndrome, but the idea that London are suddenly a force to be reckoned with in the qualifiers defies logic. Their win over Fermanagh was great for the GAA community in London and it was the least that a lot of devoted Gaels over there deserved, but Fermanagh were absolutely in tatters going over there so people suggesting things like London suddenly having the potential to go all the way to the quarter finals are getting hugely carried away.

The problem for punters this week is that the signs are that Waterford might not be in great shape either. Last week they were torn asunder by Limerick in a challenge match and so they too could be vulnerable. Waterford at full speed and with everybody tuned in would win this by six or seven points, regardless of how much London have improved. However without knowing for sure what state the Déise men are in, this is no bet country.

Down vs Leitrim

Clearly all is not well in the Leitrim camp. Wayne McKeon, their man of the match against Sligo, has left the squad due to disciplinary reasons, while the absence of Conor and Tomás Beirne from the match day panel is another baffling surprise. Leitrim football simply doesn’t have the depth to replace guys of this calibre and it must surely be devastating for players who have put their heart and soul into playing well for Leitrim to see things fall apart like this.

Down got their scare against Clare, and last year, after Down got scared by Offaly, they turned around and devoured Sligo in the next match. Leitrim look like they are in the wrong place at the wrong time, and even though Ladbrokes’ handicap of minus ten points looks high, we’re still going to recommend the 10/11 about Down covering that line.

After enjoying a star-studded weekend of football activity in which the five leaders in the betting for the Sam Maguire were all in action, the big ball games this weekend simply don’t jump off the page to the same extent, unless of course you hail from one of the eight counties competing to stay in their respective provincial races.

First up we’ll take a look at the two games in the general North West area, starting with the meeting of Donegal and Cavan at Kingspan Breffni Park.

On the face of it, reasons to fancy Cavan are very hard to come by. Donegal won division two this year, Cavan were somewhat fortunate to avoid relegation from division three. Donegal won an All Ireland under-21 title last year and have successfully integrated many of those players into their team right now, Cavan reached this year’s under-21 decider and have called upon several of those players, but it remains to be seen how they will bed in.

Donegal ended their run of four years without an Ulster championship win this year, Cavan have only gone through two years since getting a win but another way of looking at it is that since their 1997 success, they’ve only beaten Down, Fermanagh and Antrim in Ulster – the two traditional whipping boys, and Down, who have a poor record in Ulster and who for some reason, always struggle against Cavan.

Basically, by any measure, Donegal should be winning this game and even at 1/3, we’d probably side with them to do so. Donegal mightn’t be great viewing but they are solid banker material this week. However the handicap betting will be the market of choice for most punters and here the Magic Sign are 5/6 about Donegal winning by more than a three point head start. Before betting on this market, we would preach caution.

Donegal’s style of football hasn’t won them too many admirers south of Bundoran or east of Lifford, but it is effective and sometimes when a team is struggling to muster up commitment, any rallying point, even a unique style of play, can galvanise a group of players and create a sense of purpose that was hitherto lacking. However it cannot be ignored that Donegal were utterly dominant against Antrim, monopolising possession and suffocating their attack but despite this, were it not for Mark McHugh’s late goal, they would not have covered the handicap. Simply put, Donegal’s system is built to win games, but not to win by big margins. Donegal to win this game by 1-3pts at 3/1 is the bet here.

Moving west of Breffni Park to the wonderful Páirc Seán Mac Diarmada now and a longstanding rivalry of great depth gets renewed this Sunday when Leitrim take on Roscommon. Roscommon come into this game as Connacht champions but only the most utterly biased Rossie would disagree that their provincial title in 2010 was probably the handiest one won in gaelic football since the war. They beat London, then a Leitrim team who were still devastated and shattered from the death of Philly McGuinness, and caught Sligo napping in the final after the hype got into the heads of the Yeats County men. Even then they would have been reeled in had the game gone on two minutes longer.

Simply put, one Nestor Cup in those circumstances does not suddenly make a mediocre team into a good one but yet the forces of Roscommunism appear to be getting a bit carried away. The discussion boards are full of posters paying lip service to Leitrim but the bottom line is always about how Roscommon will win and it can be difficult for management to fight that kind of mindset if it spreads to the players, which it invariably will in the internet era.

Leitrim were greatly assisted by the injury to David Kelly in their first round win over Sligo, but they now have a home game to play with the carrot of a Connacht Final appearance dangling in front of their noses. No team is more certain to put in a competitive display than Leitrim and this game should go right down to the wire.

Ladbrokes “Close Call” bet is absolutely made for this fixture and 5/6 about a win for either team by a goal or less or indeed a draw is a great offer. Roscommon won this tie by five points last year but this is a better Leitrim team with a win behind them – a one or two point win would be a great result for them this year.

Action in all four provinces this week means that the football championship is well and truly underway, with local derbies, big handicaps, banana skins and everything else all on offer. The only thing genuinely missing is a close game that the bookies find a favourite difficult to agree on.

Going through the games one by one:

Laois vs Longford

The division two finalists versus the division four winners is the first televised game this Sunday and perhaps one of the most interesting from a neutral perspective. Longford’s season gathered momentum fromFebruary when they salvaged a draw in their first league match of the season against the Rossies and while Roscommon phoned it in for the Croke Park final, the feeling of lifting a trophy is always a nice one to carry through your next few training sessions. Longford’s win over Meath in a recent challenge match was very encouraging from the point of view of the Shannonsiders and certainly they have plenty of top class attacking talent.

The concern for Longford, and indeed the reason this column feels that Laois will win on Sunday by four or five points, is that they look way overmatched at midfield. McElvaney and Brady are two excellent footballing midfielders, but contrasted against the fielding power and presence of Clancy and Quigley, not to mention Colm Begley coming into the mix from wing forward, it’s very possible that Longford will be working with very litle primary possession. Laois will have to keep the goals out but they are excellent at keeping the scoreboard moving and not going through long scoring droughts. Narrowly, the preference here is for Laois minus three, and over 29.5 points, as is currently on offer with Ladbrokes.

Kildare vs Wicklow

As we discussed in our Leinster preview earlier this week, Kildare have kept a lot in reserve this Spring and it’s difficult to really get a feel for where they are. Mick O’Dwyer’s presence in the Garden county can sometimes blind people to the real state of affairs in Wicklow but they are a division four team and a couple of good one off days in the championship doesn’t change that. This isn’t a game where Off the Ground would be in a huge hurry to get bets on, but if we were, we’d probably back Kildare to cover. In truth this game is no bet country however.

Kerry vs Tipperary

Tipperary manager John Evans was in the news this week putting a brave face on his county’s draw, but realistically this fixture is not what Tipperary wanted at all. The Premier men have overtaken Limerick as the leading also-ran in Munster football, but they are still a long way off the big two and they need some wins this year to continue moving in the right direction. Ladbrokes’ eight point handicap looks about right, and while they will probably get a lot of players on their over 31.5 total points at 10/11, we wouldn’t recommend that play. Tipperary play a very defensive game which is dependent on absorbing opposition pressure and Barry Grogan carrying the attack. It’s hard to see Tipperary scoring more than eleven or twelve times here since they are not built to chase deficits. and a final tally of 1-16 to 0-11 or similar is possible.

Cork vs Clare

These two sides are a world apart and the eleven point handicap is impossible to call since Cork could cover this if they want to, but if its 0-16 to 1-5 going into the last ten minutes, how motivated will the Rebels really be? Cork will cruise through this game and win by a margin commensurate with their energy expended, however that’s not a good basis for betting.

Instead we suggest looking at the goals markets, in particular the “Who will score the first goal”. Cork are not set up to score plenty of majors while Clare will be chasing the game. 12/5 about Clare to score the first goal is a very attractive bet, simply because they are much more likely to go after goals here. Cork will score twenty times here in all likelihood, but would anyone be surprised if all twenty of those scores were points?

Derry vs Fermanagh

It’s impossible to go through all the turmoil and upheaval that Fermanagh experienced in the Spring and not be affected later in the year. Fermanagh are wonderful battlers but if you’re struggling to get through a division four league campaign, you’re simply not prepared to extract a championship result out of Celtic Park. Losing Paddy Bradley is a real blow to Derry’s chances in the long run, but it shouldn’t affect them here. Certainly his loss does not compare with the amount of players Fermanagh won’t have available to them from their 2010 squad. The Erne men may regroup in the qualifiers but they will do well to stay within the handicap here – we suspect they won’t.

Sligo vs Leitrim

Ladbrokes are very much on Leitrim’s side here, offering a four point handicap as opposed to the five that is generally available and this column would be in agreement with that view. Headlines regarding Leitrim bringing in seven debutants are a little un-nerving from the point of view of those contemplating a bet on the GAA’s most notorious underdogs, but many of those debutants played some excellent football for Leitrim’s juniors in their recent narrow defeat to Mayo in the Connacht JFC semi final, and others have played some really good football in the national league. Sligo are missing Mark Breheny and David Kelly up front, the selection of Eamonn O’Hara at centre forward suggests that they are going to play defensively since there is no way that the tanned Tourlestrane man is going to line up on the Leitrim side of midfield, and in Emlyn Mulligan Leitrim have an excellent orchestrator of their own at eleven.

Leitrim are good at playing competitively in games, they are not good at winning. Sligo to win by 1-3pts at 10/3 is a cracking bet and definitely the best wager of the week.

With two full rounds remaining in the National Football League, the extra variable of which teams are trying hardest becomes an issue in identifying profitable bets from now on. With the exception of Roscommon and a couple of counties marooned at the bottom of division four, pretty much everyone still has something to play for this week, but there are one or two counties who we might be a little wary of.

Cork footballers would be the perfect example. If Dublin beat Down on Saturday night, Cork could afford to lose in Mayo and still have a league final place in their hands if they beat Armagh in Páirc Uí Chaoimh on the final weekend. They rolled over and died to a certain extent in last year’s regular season meeting between these two counties, even if they did redress the balance in style in the final, and manager Conor Counihan must be happy about the form of a lot of his leading players and willing to give his squad members some more thorough examination soon. It’s perhaps a bit too much to suggest that 9/4 Mayo is value, but we certainly wouldn’t like to have too much money rolling on Cork at 4/9.

Division Two is full of top quality fixtures where there is no such threat, though Ladbrokes appear to be taking current form as gospel in a couple of games. Donegal at 2/7 to beat Antrim at home is a price that would have looked ridiculously short at the start of the season, but seems natural now as a top vs bottom match in the home venue of the top team. Regardless, this bettor will be having a nibble on the even money about Antrim plus four in the handicap market.

The Saffrons were very poor against Sligo last time out, but their previous two matches were a five point away loss to Tyrone and a home win over Meath, not the kind of results that would suggest that the county is in crisis or out of their depth in this league. Indeed a ten point home defeat is the kind of result that often lights a bit of a fire under a team. Donegal are going well certainly but it would be foolish to get carried away with a few league results in a county with such a long history of underachievement. Antrim know full well that defeat here could consolidate their relegation if Sligo beat Laois at home – and with such high stakes, they can give Donegal plenty to think about.

On the subject of that game in Markievicz Park, Sligo at 11/8 look like fantastic value this week against Laois. This is another price that would have looked wrong at the start of the season and while it might have made sense three games into the campaign when Laois were top of the table and Sligo had only one point from three matches, it makes no sense now with Laois going backwards.

Justin McNulty worked wonders with his players to extract such a good start to the season, however wins over Antrim and Meath don’t look as good in hindsight and the hammering of Derry in Celtic Park was too bizarre to be taken seriously. Winning that game by six or seven points would have been impressive – winning by 1-21 to 1-7 with Derry’s goal coming late on has a fierce aroma of rat about it. Some other factor was at play that day.

Laois’ recent form has been much more in line with what would have been expected of them, while Sligo’s win in Antrim means that they are now the favourite out of themselves, Meath and Antrim to escape the drop. They can keep that momentum going this week and really should be favourites – 11/8 with the Magic Sign is excellent value.

Finally this week, Leitrim plus three at even money is the eye catcher from the division four games. Longford have been the better of these two Shannonside counties this year however these local derbies are usually hotly contested and as things stand people are forgetting that Leitrim are right in the mix for promotion from division four.

A win here would leave them in great shape with games against London and an already promoted Roscommon team to come and they’ll have no fear of their near neighbours. Last weekend’s loss to Carlow was a setback but Longford didn’t pull up any trees down in Clare either and will be distracted by their upcoming Leinster under-21 final. Expect this game to go right down to the wire and a three point head start for Leitrim is very healthy.

A number of short-priced favourites occupy the GAA betting conundrum on Sunday, and with this in mind it’s worth taking a closer look at the handicaps on offer.

Galway will be without a host of stars for their opening match in Division One including Joe Canning. And had the Portumna man been listed at full-forward then the handicap betting would surely have been two or maybe three points higher.

Absentees will have an effect but they still have star quality in Ger Farragher and Iarla Tannian. Although Wexford will be boosted by the return of their Oulart The Ballagh contingent, doubts remain about their current form after a disappointing Walsh Cup campaign.

Galway look the safer option and should cover the -5 spread with Ladbrokes at evens.

Cork could be a team to keep an eye on this year. Denis Walsh has a solid and young group of players that will be much the better for last year’s championship run.

Some Rebel fans may be expecting better, but they appear a team going the right way by trying to blend youth and experience.

They put in a good performance in the final of the Waterford Crystal Cup and will be looking to turn Páirc Uí Chaoimh into a fortress. Offaly have a number of injury worries and it may be too early in the season to trust Joe Dooley’s men. Take the Rebels -6 at 5/6 with Ladbrokes.

Dublin hurlers will not have fond memories of their last trek to Waterford. On that occasion they suffered a humiliating 13 point defeat and they will be chomping at the bit to banish that memory today. For me Waterford are somewhat of a risky prospect at 1/2 considering their list of high profile absentees.

If Dublin are to win, it will be by the minimum of margins and they are 4/1 to triumph by 1-3 points.

Clare may be a more settled outfit at this time of year but the 6/4 on offer about Limerick represents good value. This should be a close contest with O’Grady recalling some of the big name players that decided against playing in 2010 and they could lead the Treaty men to an opening round win.

Carlow look good at 1/2 away to Down while Laois should have enough firepower to cover the -5 spread with Paddy Power at evens against Westmeath.

Two matches take place in Division Four of the national football league with Wicklow travelling to Leitrim and Carlow hosting Fermanagh. Wicklow have an excellent forward division and they look the bet at 8/13, especially considering Leitrim struggled past a 13 man Clare outfit last weekend.

Carlow and Fermanagh could be a close contest and a small bet on a draw at 15/2 is the call.

In the midst of a very busy weekend for the hurling section of the GAA community, a few key football games are also down for decision, most notably in division four where the need to escape football’s basement division is felt very keenly by a couple of counties keen to make good progress.

Clare’s meeting with Kilkenny is hardly worth analysing, however London on the other hand can’t be completely written off for their home game with Roscommon. The reigning Connacht champions should have come away from Longford with a win last week, but sadly for this column they failed to get over the line and a final tally of 0-10 suggests that they are badly missing Donie Shine, Senan Kilbride, Karol Mannion from their attack. London had a nice season opener against Kilkenny to get things underway and while beating an awful Kilkenny team doesn’t mean anything by itself, there will be some kind of feel good factor around the exiles for another while.

News breaking in London that players are unhappy about unpaid expenses is not encouraging, however a home meeting with Roscommon when the visitors are down several key players is a great chance to secure an historic win. There was plenty of nervousness to be found among Roscommon supporters before the first round of the Connacht championship last year, however that turned out to be unfounded. On this occasion, in wintry conditions and with London likely to have a spring in their step, this could be a dangerous trip. 11/2 to win the match might not happen but even money about London plus seven could very easily.

Leitrim’s win over Clare was a huge shock to most of the smart money as the Banner County were unquestionably one of the most popular bets of the week. On paper, this Leitrim team should really struggle this year, however it’s difficult to overestimate the value of positive momentum. Wicklow have made great progress in the championship in recent years, but in truth they would probably be a lot better off for having escaped the basement division in the league. Their draw with Carlow last week suggests that once again it will be a case of limp through the league and look for an upset or two. In that environment, Leitrim are possibly the better bet here, even if that goes completely against what we would have said a week ago.

Fermanagh’s trip to Carlow is arguably the most intriguing fixture of the round as it pits an improving Carlow team against a side that really should be looking to get out of this league at the first attempt. Fermanagh put in some very good performances in the McKenna Cup and while Dr Cullen Park is not an easy place to go, this is exactly the type of game they need to be winning if they are to secure promotion. 8/13 is maybe a little short, but Fermanagh should be the classier team here.

Finally in division three, Louth host Westmeath tomorrow in a rescheduled game from last week. Three home wins in the other three fixtures in this league proved that as was the case in 2010, division three is not unlike a men’s tennis match at Wimbledon. You have to hold your serve at home, and look to pick up a break or two against the serve to come out on top.

Louth have championship form over Westmeath from last Summer and are seen as the form team from their exploits in the O’Byrne Cup, but nonetheless there is a lot to like about this Westmeath team, even allowing for a lot of their unfamiliar faces. We liked Westmeath here in this column last week and nothing has changed since then. Westmeath at 6/4 still represent the better bet.

Traditionally, national football league division four is one of the easiest competitions to analyse. Draw a line through half the contenders, put an asterisk beside which teams have London and Kilkenny as their away games and see where that leaves you. This year, presumably by accident rather than design, the fixture list has actually worked out quite fairly for all the main contenders, meaning that such simplistic analysis won’t cut it. Roscommon, Fermanagh, Longford and Wicklow, who between them make up the vast majority of the field book, each have at least one game at home and one game away to the other members of that quartet, while each team has one of the cannon fodder teams at home and the other away, meaning that they each have a similar number of banana skin trips away to Clare, Carlow and Leitrim.

On the face of it, there is also a little bit of unpredictability about two of those three also-ran counties that might skew things a little. Clare hit their glass ceiling last year when despite a good start, they fell short despite needing just one final result against either Limerick or Waterford. Manager Gerry McDermott has taken the approach of trawling the nation for players with Clare parentage and this has resulted in several new recruits, including talented footballers like Niall Browne from Two Mile House in Kildare. It’s never easy to say with any degree of certainty how an approach of that nature will be received by the natives in a county, however the attitude of Kilmurry-Ibrickane footballers when it comes to playing for their county is reason enough for McDermott to be justified in suggesting that some outside help is needed and that the locals might need some re-adjustment in their attitude when it comes to playing for Clare.

Carlow will be adding to their panel in the more traditional fashion, bringing along several of last year’s quite talented under 21 footballers. The problem in Carlow for years has been successfully bringing on good young players, but still not improving since key players in their prime decide to opt out too frequently. This has to change if Carlow are ever going to make an impact, and the county secretary making a speech imploring clubs to release players is not a good sign that 2011 is likely to be any different. Nonetheless they have the quality to perform well in this company. Matches against Wicklow, Fermanagh and Roscommon in the first three rounds will tell a lot – they need to take three points from those fixtures, and if they do they can gather momentum from there and make an impact. If not, it’s going to be more of the same.

Leitrim have no such grounds for optimism, other than the fixture list. Their four away games are to the two cannon fodder teams, and to near neighbours Longford and Roscommon. These would be the four games they would choose for away fixtures, however none of this can mask their lack of real quality. Expect them to challenge for a top half spot, but not promotion.

What all this says is that some of the top four are way too short, and unquestionably Wicklow look like the most obvious candidate for bad value. Mick O’Dwyer’s disdain for the league is famous and while he has brought about some improvement in championship performances, Wicklow have remained rooted to the basement division in the spring competition. There is no reason why this year should be any different.

Longford too would need to be 9/1 instead of the 9/2 Ladbrokes are offering before any investment would be warranted, and even then we’d be hesitant. The potential absence of Brian Kavanagh for crucial early round clashes against Fermanagh and Roscommon is a huge concern, and it’s too soon to start thinking of any of last year’s minor team making a real impact.

Fermanagh are a team heading in the wrong direction and while they do have talent to be respected, unquestionably the strongest team in this division should be Roscommon, available at 7/4 with the Magic Sign. Their performance in winning Connacht last year must be put in the context of a championship where Sligo did the hard grafting for them by taking out Galway and Mayo and the overall record of Connacht counties outside of the province was truly awful. Three counties were badly beaten, while Galway and Mayo exited to Wexford and Longford respectively.

Nonetheless this is a good, young Roscommon team with less dependence on the St Brigid’s footballers than one might imagine. Players like Cathal Cregg, Peter Domican and Sean McDermott are improving with every year, while Donie Shine’s ability to kick frees is crucial. 7/4 may seem short, but they are the best team in it and if they can avoid too many early slip ups, they should gather momentum as the year progresses.

A bet on Roscommon, with covering stakes on Clare and Carlow just in case they do come good, looks like the best policy to follow in a league which could yet turn out to be one of the more competitive contests in this year’s national league, despite the usual trend of descending into a short field very quickly.

With Tyrone footballers, Kilkenny hurlers and several other top class counties in action this weekend, the Connacht semi final meeting between Roscommon and Leitrim has escaped the attention of many media pundits and supporters alike, but from a betting perspective, this game is perhaps one of the most appealing ties of the whole weekend. Supporters may want action and scores, but from a betting perspective, predictability and consistency are very welcome characteristics.

It might not be easy to predict who’ll win in the clash between the two local rivals, but at the risk of sounding like a tired hack falling back on an old cliché, anything other than a tight match tomorrow would be a huge surprise. Hyde Park is notorious for hosting low scoring games while neither of these two attacking units would fill opposing back lines with fear. With plenty of intensity guaranteed, the total points line in this game of 27.5 looks optimistic from a scoring point of view. While going low on this line would be a sensible play, there are other ways to exploit a potentially dour clash.

(more…)

• 1With question marks hanging over both these sides (Chelsea - John......
• 2The odds are so skinny on Ireland it may be wise......
• 3Plenty to keep the Winter chill at bay. Our Monty (10/1......
• 4Newcastle's Senegalese starlets Demba Ba and Papis Demba Cisse are back......
• 5With a busy day already done Laurence McCormack examines the Man......

• Twitter
• RSS
• You Tube