The GAA might pride itself on being an all-inclusive organisation, but a quick look at the media coverage for national league games will tell you where their interests really lie. Expect full page spreads on the big battles in division one, plenty of coverage of Mickey Harte and Kieran McGeeney as they attempt to drag their respective teams out of division two, while everyone else fights for the scraps from the Masters’ table!

However here at Starbets, we’re nothing if not pragmatic. A 2/1 winner in a division four basement battle watched by five men, three maor uisce and a dog is just as good as a 2/1 winner at Croke Park or Páirc Uí Chaoimh, so here now is our preview for the first week of division 3 and division 4 action.

Antrim vs Sligo

These two counties have become joined at the hip in recent years and this will be their eighth meeting since 2006 in the league, meaning that they have met each other more often than any other pairing in that time. Whether it’s promotion or relegation, neither county likes to do anything without the other and as such it’s no surprise that the bookies are finding it hard to split them in advance of tonight’s battle at Casement Park. Boylesports make the home side their ever-so-slight favourites, while Hills give the most tentative of nods to the visitors from the North West, but every other layer is right on the fence, offering even money each of two. Initially we were inclined towards sharing the view held by Hills, but the news that David Kelly doesn’t start was enough for us to recant. The Tubbercurry forward has been in fantastic form for DCU so far this season and while we think that Sligo might be able to get a good result without him, unless you’re in Casement Park and you see his distinctive red hair bobbing into the corner for the throw in, this is a no bet game.

London vs Fermanagh

The odds of 1/7 and 1/8 about a Fermanagh win might seem odd in the light of the most recent result between these two teams, but there is no contrast between the Fermanagh team of 2011 and the 2012 version under the tutelege of Peter Canavan. If there was a handicap bet to be had, we’d be suggesting that Fermanagh would cover, but there isn’t, so our hands remain in our pockets for this one too.

Clare vs Waterford

Not many football supporters from north of the Suir river will realise quite how talented the two O’Gorman brothers are, and how much of a blow their defection to the hurling panel is to John Kiely and his selectors. There still are some fine footballers in this Waterford team and they can certainly consider themselves unlucky to have made the drop last year after three of their five league defeats were by a goal or less, but Clare looked decent in preseason competition. Home advantage is worth a couple of points, while the availability of the Kilmurry-Ibrickane players is worth a few more.

Kilkenny vs Wicklow

Kilkenny’s forfeiture against Louth in the O’Byrne Cup could easily turn out to be their best result of the year. Wicklow to win by as much as they like, not that this is any use to us.

Leitrim vs Limerick

Limerick will feel very hard done by to be playing division four football and they now share with Roscommon the remarkable record of having reached an All Ireland quarter final one year only to play basement league football the year after. And no game more typifies division four than a trip to Páirc Séan MacDiarmada to play Leitrim. There is no glamour or glory to be had, but anything less than complete and total commitment will see you coming home empty handed. Limerick to win, but not without a fight.

Longford vs Offaly

The few bits of 8/11 about Longford that were floating around earlier in the week have disappeared a long time ago and now 4/7 is the best that can be had about a home win here. It’s easy to see why those prices were taken – Longford are much further on in their development while Offaly are going into battle without their standout player in Niall McNamee. Longford should win with a bit over a goal to spare.

Roscommon vs Tipperary

Tipperary bring a very strong, seasoned outfit up to Kiltoom for this fixture and against a Roscommon team shorn of their St Brigids players, they will be expected to come home with the points. However it may not turn out to be that simple against a Roscommon team with plenty of scoring still in their team. Logic dictates that the 11/8 from Hills about an away win is the way to go, but we’re going to stay on the fence in this one in terms of the result.

However these are two good goalscoring sides and neither is either team particularly convincing in the full back line. Ladbrokes are offering 3/1 about over 2.5 goals in this game and that’s a decent shout here.

Wexford vs Cavan

Our antepost tip for the division faces what should be their toughest fixture of the entire campaign when they travel to Wexford Park to take on the antepost favourites for this extremely competitive division. Here at Starbets we were all set to recommend Cavan as a live outsider for this fixture, but that was at a time when we expected them to be offered at something around 3/1. 2/1 doesn’t appeal nearly as much and instead the best play is to stick with Cavan on the outright market. Even if they lose here they still have a great chance, while a win will see their outright price slashed right into 7/2 or 4/1.

Division 3 and Division 4 recommendations

Clare vs Waterford: Clare @ 4/5 (Bet365, Boylesports, Powers, Hills)

Leitrim vs Limerick: Limerick to win by 1-3 pts @ 13/5 (Powers)

Longford vs Offaly: Longford -1 pt @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Roscommon vs Tipperary: Over 2.5 goals @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes)

Even by preseason standards, the McGrath Cup in Munster is very much the poor relation of the four competitions. Due to the absence of Kerry and the straight knockout format that fails to allow sides to get any momentum up, it’s taking place below the radar this weekend with little or no national interest in the games taking place. Traditionally a lot of the third level institutions taking part in the McGrath Cup are among the weakest footballing colleges in Ireland, with sides like Limerick IT and Waterford IT very much out of their depth at this level of competition.

However in the midst of all this, Sigerson Cup champions UCC certainly add a heavyweight presence to the competition, while the bright and positive early start for Clare suggests that they too could be worthy contenders for this prize if they can keep up their decent form.

From a betting point of view, the battle between Waterford IT and Tipperary is a dead duck with the 1/12 Tipp men almost certain to win, while Cork IT are simply too unpredictable and can’t be trusted to play to form against a low profile but capable group from IT Tralee. Odds of 9/4 about IT Tralee would be worth watching for the simple reason that a little money would tell a long story at this level, however in the absence of any clear team information or flood of money for the Kerry college, this too is not a fixture where we’d like to make any strong recommendations.

Cork manager Conor Counihan has suggested in the national media that his team will be taking the McGrath Cup seriously and will be hoping to string together a run of games, however the fifteen starters that he has selected don’t exactly back up this assertion. Graham Canty might be a big name in the world of Gaelic Football after a stellar career but he’s spent a long time away from county action and will undoubtedly need plenty of playing time to get back up to the pace of the game. There is huge depth in Cork football so it’s not as if we’re expecting any of the players named to turn out to be a weak link, but even so it’s a raw team that hasn’t played together and will be a long way further back in their training than Clare. After all Cork and Kerry are the two counties that can say with complete and absolute confidence that they will be playing ball in late July, and with that safety net behind him, Conor Counihan and Jack O’Connor simply don’t have to hit the ground running to the same extent.Conor Counihan might be trying to do the Munster Council a favour in talking up the McGrath Cup so as to get bums on seats, but we’d be amazed if he genuinely afforded priority to this match.

The presence of Kilmurry-Ibrickane footballers on the Clare panel this year indicated that the Banner County finally might be able to pull together and start delivering on the potential that exists in Clare football, while the hard hitting style of football in the county is well suited to winter games. Their comprehensive win last weekend did come at the expense of an underwhelming UL team and David Moran’s injury undoubtedly played a big part, but even so it’s hard to fault any team who scored eighteen times in a January football match, no matter who their opponents were. Hills’ offer of 4/1 about Clare is very attractive in this context and well worth a small bet.

Boylesports appear to be out to get UCC in advance of their battle with Limerick, but on the face of things, it’s difficult to see quite why they are pursuing this policy. All of the other leading contenders for the Sigerson Cup with the exception of Queens – DCU, NUIG, UUJ and UCD – got off to winning starts, in some cases against some very decent opposition. UCC kept plenty in reserve in the higher education league, as they usually do, but even so any side defending a Sigerson Cup title is likely to be decent and odds of 8/11 against a Limerick team with four debutants in the forward line and short of several other leading players, they look like an outstanding bet in Rathkeale.

McGrath Cup Recommendations

Cork vs Clare: Clare to win @ 4/1 (Hills)

Limerick vs UCC: UCC @ 8/11 (Boylesports)

Hot on the heels of the first part of our series, now we detail the top half of our hurling power rankings. We left off the first part with one county that had just recruited a local legend to take the reins so now, we resume with another….

7. Clare (8 – Slight improvement)

With a proven manager in charge and a lot of fine young prospects coming into their prime, Clare should be set to move well up the pecking order in the next few years, though Banner supporters will be slightly worried that they haven’t made more ground up by now. Last year in the Fitzgibbon Cup there were ten colleges that were competitive – Clare had 22 starters for these ten colleges, more than any other county, with the exception of Kilkenny. The significance of this is that Fitzgerald can afford to push his team very hard because the depth is there in the county to sustain a few losses. If players like Darach Honan, John Conlon, Caimín Morey and the like start to deliver on their huge potential they will shoot up the rankings and secure some very big wins, but we’ll temper our expectations for the moment and say that a Munster semi final win against Waterford is well within their grasp.

6. Galway (4 – Slight improvement)

Loads of underage talent, a new manager at the helm with a good track record, and a club championship that yet again proved itself to be one of the deepest in the country in terms of talent – you’ll forgive us if we say that we’ve heard it all before. On paper, Galway should be there or thereabouts every year, and yet they’ve only reached the last four once in the last ten championship campaigns. In 2010 they absolved themselves by saying that they should have beaten Tipperary, who went on to win the All Ireland. There can be no such excuse in 2011 after an abject defeat to Waterford, who should have been mentally broken after leaking seven goals in the Munster final. Logic dictates they should improve, but on the other hand, why would 2012 be any different to every other year when they promised greatness only to fall way short?

5. Waterford (6 – Disimprovement)

Time to get off the fence here. This column’s view is that people don’t realise yet what an incredible job David Fitzgerald did with very limited material in Waterford, so subsequently they will struggle to keep up the same standard next year and will probably slip down the order considerably. They may not be overtaken by too many other counties, but they ended 2011 maybe seven or eight points off All Ireland winning standard – expect that to move out to double figures at least. There are some good young hurlers in the county but it’s hard to look at those hurlers under 25 in the county and say that any of them have the making of another Tony Browne, John Mullane or Brick Walsh, all of whom are either retired or nearing that stage. Their first round league meeting with Cork in Páirc Uí Rinn is a massive fixture for them. Relegation to 1B will be difficult to avoid if they don’t win that tie, and their players might not have the mental strength to overcome a setback of that nature.

4. Limerick (7 – Slight disimprovement)

Their bookmaker ranking of seven is a little harsh and is probably more a reflection of the Munster championship draw that pits them against Tipperary in the quarter final. They appeared to turn a corner in 2011 and after comfortably securing promotion, they were narrowly edged out by Waterford in a wonderful Munster final. Their qualifier performances were very solid and they can consider themselves very unlucky to lose out to Dublin in a game where goals were very much the difference between the sides. John Allen will provide a steady hand on the tiller but they need to find a bit more steel in the full back line and possibly a consistent point scorer from play up front, someone who can be depended upon to raise two or three white flags even on a bad day. Right now there is no Limerick forward that meets that description – though several of their younger players could yet grow into that role.

3. Dublin (3 – improvement)

Not unlike Kildare in football, Dublin are in a “don’t look down” situation. They are going hell for leather and continue to take steps forward as a result, but standing still is not an option for them as they will slip right back as soon as they do. The second they take their foot off the accelerator, they will struggle to rediscover their momentum and they need Anthony Daly to keep pushing his players on. He’s not without fuel for the fire however – they proved in 2011 that they can win big games, they showed no fear of Tipperary in the All Ireland semi final and next year’s draw is ideal for them. Tthey can take on Kilkenny early and either secure that elusive championship win over the Cats, or else take their time and rebuild through the qualifiers and use what they learned later in the year. They have youth on their side, and Conal Keaney’s return will change their dynamic completely. Genuine All Ireland contenders in 2012.

2. Tipperary (2 – Slight disimprovement)

Consistently strong throughout the team, but Eoin Kelly continues to slow down and Lar Corbett struggled in the All Ireland final. Being so one-sided at the top level of the game was always likely to cause problems for the Sarsfields man and now that the Cats have figured out how to counteract Tipperary’s pattern of movement up front, Corbett will struggle to get himself into the same goalscoring positions. There are too many good hurlers in the county for Declan Ryan ever to have to field a “weak link” but in contrast to Kilkenny, how many Tipperary hurlers can we say are definitely the number one in Ireland in their position? Michael Cahill, Padraic Maher and Corbett are the only three that stand out and none of those man a central role. It’s a lot more than some other counties have, but you need more than that to usurp this Kilkenny team.

1. Kilkenny (1 – No change)

Yet again, Brian Cody took apart a good team and rebuilt it to become even better. In 2009, Kilkenny won the All Ireland but it was clear that Tipp were gaining ground and in 2010 the Premier men deservedly took the big prize. Last year Kilkenny defied their critics and roared back with an outstanding season and it’s hard to pick holes in any aspect of their setup. For as long as Brian Cody retains his incredible thirst for success and Henry Shefflin continues to compete at his incredibly high level they will be right up there, but next year they will have to be on guard for a challenge from Dublin. They’ve got Tipp figured out for the moment at least, but Dublin could have the fresh approach that might be their undoing. Deserved favourites and the best team in Ireland right now however.

Sadly there will be no Hurricane Fly in the featured Festival Hurdle, run for the first time this year in honour of the mighty Istabraq, but the final day of Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival still promises to provide plenty of excitement.

Thousand Stars, who deputised so successfully for his higher-profile stable companion in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown last month, once again plays the role of supersub in the Grade 1 feature at 1.55 and the wonderfully tough and consistent grey appears to hold a favourite’s chance. He seems equally effective over a wide variety of distances, and while Moon Dice and Unaccompanied are potential improvers stepped up to this level in open company for the first time they may have to settle for a supporting role.

The Grade 3 ITBA Fillies Scheme Mares Hurdle at 1.25 is a worthy chief supporting event and Stephanie Kate makes plenty of appeal as she returns to the smaller obstacles. Charlie Swan’s daughter of King’s Theatre has been running extremely well against the likes of First Lieutenant and Knockfierna over fences of late, giving the strong impression she has improved since her fine fifth to Quevega at the Cheltenham Festival. Official figures give her a mountain to climb against the likes of Our Girl Salley and Magen’s Star but they should not be taken too seriously.

Hidden Cyclone was one of the top novice hurdlers in the country last season and the “Shark” Hanlon’s exciting prospect is taken to get off to the perfect start over the larger obstacles in the beginners event at 12.55. The imposing Stowaway gelding was purposely kept away from Cheltenham last term as connections always felt this would be his game and though Grade 1 hurdle winner Shot From The Hip will be no pushover he may not quite have the scope of the selection.

Limerick’s big holiday meeting also draws to a close with a seven-race card and the main point of interest concerns whether Satwa King and Fahamore can follow up their victories at the track earlier in the week. The latter in particular looked to have plenty up his sleeve when seeing off the well-treated Whiskey Hall and is difficult to oppose in the 2m6f handicap hurdle, for all that Cloughmile probably has a few pounds in hand as well after a productive spell chasing.

Leopardstown Tips

12.25 – Glam Gerry
12.55 – Hidden Cyclone
1.25 – Stephanie Kate
1.55 – Thousand Stars
2.30 – Define
3.05 – Vesper Bell
3.35 – Wandering Aengus

Limerick Tips

12.35 – Folsom Blue
1.05 – Oscars Business
1.40 – Satwa King
2.15 – Fahamore
2.50 – Askanna
3.25 – Mister Farmer
3.55 – Three Mountainview

Continuing now with the third part in the series, detailing those counties that will be hoping to make a real breakthrough into the top tier in 2012…..

17. Roscommon (16 – Disimprovement)

Few counties better illustrate the inequity of the current provincial structure than Roscommon, who have reached the last twelve of the All Ireland race for each of the last two seasons despite failing to beat any top twenty county in league or championship along the way. That there is talent in the county cannot be questioned and that’s the only reason why they aren’t ranked even lower, but a few cracks are starting to appear that suggest that some of their brightest hopes from the 2006 minor team simply aren’t progressing as well as many supporters would have hoped. Players like Peter Domican, Senan Kilbride and Cathal Cregg would be welcome into any county team in Ireland, but there will be no handy run to the Connacht final this year and as a result it would be a huge surprise to this column if they were still playing football in August.

16. Limerick (17 – slight disimprovement)

A little bit more luck in the early part of the league would have gone a long way and by the time they found their rhythm in the summer, even without talismanic midfielder John Galvin, they looked like a dangerous force in the qualifiers. The draw was extremely kind to them and not many teams would get to reach an All Ireland quarter final beating only division three sides, but it’s hard to be too critical of a team that only lost to Kerry in the championship. If they can continue to create space for what is a very potent forward line they’ll do well, but their league match against Fermanagh will be particularly revealing as no side under Canavan is likely to allow a lot of space to their direct opponents. Expect Fermanagh to write the script for how to neutralise Limerick in 2012.

15. Laois (15 – no change)

Based on league form, Laois deserve to be ranked much higher than this, but in the championship they’ve made little or no impression for some years now. Manager Justin McNulty looked like he was achieving some good things in the county but the poor state of their domestic championship is a concern and many of their younger prospects aren’t progressing as well as they should. They will almost certainly get relegated from division one but if they can learn from playing at that standard, they might just have enough to come through a treacherous first round championship tie against Longford.

14. Meath (11 – Slight disimprovement)

The wisdom in picking a non-Meath manager to take charge of the Royal County for the first time is being questioned at the moment with Seamus McEnaney yet to win over the footballing public in Meath. Up front the county has no problems with a string of capable attacking players but the absence of Nigel Crawford will be keenly felt this year while all across the midfield and half back line there are concerns. Their reputation is masking quite how many problems there are in Meath football at the moment.

13. Monaghan (13 – disimprovement)

Their shocking qualifier performance in Tullamore last year was either the portent of the start of a long term decline or else one bad day, an anomaly to be ignored. Sadly for Monaghan supporters, this column suspects it could be the former. The Farney men have been one of the most competitive and consistent counties in terms of punching above their weight in the last few years but a lot of that was down to Tommy Freeman’s incisive play up front and while Conor McManus has stepped up to a certain degree, some very average footballers have seen significant playing time under Seamus McEneaney. Their attitude to the game means that they won’t slip too far but if we were to predict one championship upset now, Antrim vs Monaghan in Clones in the first round of the Ulster championship would be our first choice.

12. Wexford (14 – Slight improvement)

After a couple of years of stagnation, Wexford finally found their rhythm in 2011 and were very unlucky both in terms of missing out on promotion and in losing out to Limerick in the fourth round of the qualifiers. Indeed Kerry were probably delighted to see Limerick trip up Wexford because the Slaneysiders could have created a much more interesting All Ireland quarter final if they had advanced to meet the Kingdom. They have an experienced squad that physically are a lot more powerful than they’ve been given credit for and by far they look like the most realistic contender for a Leinster title outside of the big two.

11. Galway (10 – improvement)

If you were to design a scenario where a county should be poised to make huge gains in 2012, you’d struggle to create anything more ideal than the situation out west. You have a very strong club championship, a highly talented bunch of young footballers waiting in the wings, a local manager who has earned respect with his achievements and a group of senior players that must be eager to start accumulating the medals that their talent warrants. The problem is that many of these conditions have been in place previously. Time will tell if Alan Mulholland can unlock the world of potential that lies in Galway football, but if he can’t manage it, there’s little hope for anyone.

10. Armagh (12 – No change)

The depth in Armagh football is not as much of a strength as many outside the county believe, but they have some fine individual talents and players like Aaron Kernan are incredibly good role models for the younger players that are coming in. One or two injuries tend to hit the county very hard but they are not as far off the pace as all that. If Jamie Clarke starts replicating his club form in the Ulster Championship, they could be real dark horses to take provincial honours.

9. Derry (9 – Slight improvement)

Last year was a glorious chance for an Ulster title that went astray and one wonders quite how many such chances will come their way. If we were projecting well into the future we’d struggle to be optimistic for the Derry men but in the short term, 2012 has to be a big year for the county. Injury permitting both Paddy and Eoghan Bradley will be available to manager John Brennan and if he can get the two Glenullin brothers working well within the framework of the team, he’ll have a unit capable of a lot of success.

Fermanagh start the year as the shortest priced favourite in any of the four national football leagues, which suggests among other things that the boomaking community don’t consider last year’s form to be in any way indicative about the potential that lies in this Erne County panel. Ladbrokes and Stan James/Betpack are going after Fermanagh at 9/4, while Hills are ducking them completely, offering them at 7/4 while going best price about five of the seven other contenders in this division. It’s pretty clear where Hills stand with a pricing strategy like that.

However before formulating a betting policy, or even taking a preliminary view, the question has to be asked; a county that last year failed to get out of this trapdoor division, played perhaps the worst half of football in the provincial championships against Derry and went on to lose to London, and shed many of their main squad players on the way, how can they be considered favourites for anything, much less when capable if unspectacular football counties like Limerick and Wicklow are also in contention?

Unquestionably, a huge part of this optimism on behalf of the bookmaking community has to be attributed to the man taking over the helm in Fermanagh, Peter Canavan of Tyrone. The man who played such a huge part in Tyrone’s All Ireland successes in 2003 and 2005 was without peer on the field for most of his career, and while it’s far from certain that he will be able to replicate that level of overachievement as manager, the probability that his appointment will give the county a huge boost is overwhelmingly high. In a county where the simple matter of getting the best footballers on to the field of play has been a huge concern, his very presence will create a buzz that should carry the county quite a long way.

The fixture list has also been extremely kind. Their two main contenders, Limerick and Wicklow, both have to travel to Brewster Park, while they have the two easiest opponents – Kilkenny and London – away from home. Of all the counties that could slip up against London this year, Fermanagh are by far the least likely to do so after what happened last year. Add in the fact that a third away game is against Carlow in round 9, when Carlow could easily have nothing to play for,  and these fixtures are so perfect that Canavan himself couldn’t have drawn them up any better.

Leitrim, Carlow and Clare are always tough opponents at this level but they’ve struggled to make the breakthrough for several years now, and there is no reason to believe that any of these counties should be any better in 2012 than they were for the past few years. Clare had the perfect run of games last year and still couldn’t get over the line, while Leitrim simply don’t have the depth to try out new players and still get results. A fixture list that sends them away to Wicklow and Fermanagh is no help either.

Waterford were competitive in division three last year and came within one red card against Louth of staying up. They should be capable of going well in this division, but this columnist couldn’t help but be a little bit spooked by the report from secretary Timmy O’Keeffe at the Waterford convention, where he said “However, if we are to remain competitive at inter-county level, particularly in hurling, we must continue to prepare our teams to the highest standards.”. Those three words – particularly in hurling – make it very clear where his loyalty will lie, and as long as a decent bunch of footballers are treated like second class citizens, they will struggle to improve.Of all Hills’ prices however, their 9/1 here is the most intriguing.

Limerick have to respected. Any side capable of reaching the All Ireland quarter finals has to be respected and a full forward line containing Ian Ryan and Ger Collins is capable of tearing any division four backline asunder. John Galvin’s long term injury is a huge loss as the Croom man is one of the best midfielders in the country and he too would stand out like a sore thumb at this level, however there is enough depth in Limerick football to be capable of going really well in this league. Their issue will be the fixture list. Their first five games are home gimmes against Kilkenny and London, and away dogfights against Clare, Leitrim and Wicklow. If they lose two of those three, and it would be easy to do so, they would have a real mountain to climb.

Of all the single figure priced teams in this year’s National Football League. this column’s bismarck by a long way is Wicklow. Expect us to oppose Wicklow in the betting hard and often next year, as the Garden County are about to experience something we like to call “The Micko Hangover”.

It’s no secret that Mick O’Dwyer brings enthusiasm to counties where getting everyone pulling together has been difficult. He has got results wherever he has gone and certainly Wicklow experienced a lot more success with the Waterville man at the helm than they had done for several years previously. However his methods when he goes to counties are broadly similar. Get nigh on a hundred lads in for training early on, weed out the less able and less willing ones, make the remainder very fit and use the league to prepare for championship where his team will take the field full of running, albeit always a bit more gravitationally challenged than the year before he arrived. Then, where possible, fill the gaps in the team with transfers from other counties. Younger footballers tend not to be exposed to high quality technical instruction, and while he gets the best out of the raw material that he has at his disposal, on an individual level players don’t develop as they should.

That’s where the Micko hangover comes in – counties struggling to pull themselves together for a few years after Micko has been around. Laois have done little or nothing in the championship since he left, and while they are now a division one team, they were always a good league side. They continue to underachieve where it counts. Kildare took a few years to get back on track as well after his departure and now Wicklow will experience the same issue. The really disappointing thing from a Wicklow perspective is that more than any other county, they needed to get out of division four. Not since the 1996/97 season when Wicklow won five games in what was then division three of four, and the following year where the league divisions were four equal unseeded pots of eight, have Wicklow ever played in anything other than the lowest tier possible.That’s simply not good enough for a county of Wicklow’s size and depth in terms of football.

Championship qualifier wins are all very well, but Wicklow’s players needed the development of playing football in division three, and they never really came close to getting out of the basement. If they couldn’t do it with Micko in charge, they certainly won’t now.

Willie Mullins will be trying to keep up the momentum generated over the weekend at this afternoon’s sole Irish fixture at Limerick, and in Theleze the champion jumps trainer saddles one of the most interesting runners on the seven-race programme.

Successful in two bumpers in her native France, both over 1m4f, the Alan Potts-owned daughter of Lavirco also picked up some useful experience over obstacles and appears to have been found a very good opportunity to make a winning start to her career in Ireland. Chief rival BAck In A Tic has a rating of just 105, and while she does have race-fitness on her side it must be doubtful whether she will be up to beating the favourite.

Robbie Power, fresh from his fine successes on Steps To Freedom and Big Zeb in recent days, partners The Engineer in the 2m3f beginners chase at 3.15 and it might be worth backing the son of Old Vic to get off to the perfect start over the larger obstacles. A useful sort in bumper company, placed behind the likes of Aupcharlie and Ipsos Du Berlais, Jessica Harrington’s charge looks the type to do well at this game and may prove too strong for Gigginstown pair Gift Of Dgab and Fists Of Fury.

Tornant, a half-sister to former stable star Newhall, caught the eye when fifth at Punchestown last month on what was just her second outing outside maiden company and with that form working out very well Mark Walsh’ mount can step up to record a first career victory in division one of the 2m5f handicap hurdle, while another Flood runner Senior Again could put it up to Mullins hot-pot Bundle Of Fun in the concluding handicap chase.

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Selections

12.40 – Tellherimnothere 11/4
1.10 – Theleze 13/8
1.40 – Tornant 8/1
2.15 – Akadyr 10/1
2.45 – Tico 5/2
3.15 – The Engineer 8/1
3.45 – Senior Again 12/1

A respectable day for us again yesterday with Big Zeb (5/6) and Voler La Vedette (2/1) making winning returns to the track and Olofi (2nd 20/1) landing the each way money for us.

Two short priced selections to start a new week.

Plumpton 2.00 – Five Rivers 11/8

Five Rivers ran a promising race in a well contested Novice event at Chepstow a few weeks ago and with improvement to come he should be hard to beat here. The form of the race has been franked by the winner Prospect Wells at Cheltenham on Friday and the fourth horse in the race, High Storm ran a good second in a Novice event last week. This Warren Greatrex- trained gelding can run a bit free in his races , so the step up in trip today is a slight worry. However,there is plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree and indeed one of his relations is the Willie Mullins-trained smart staying chaser Bothar Na. Certainly on pedigree, Fine Rivers should relish the extra half mile today and should go close dropped in grade.

Limerick 3.45 – Bundle Of Fun 11/8

Bundle of Fun rated 24 pounds superior over hurdles was unable to exploit his lower chase rating last time out but we will give him another chance today. Although, a winning hurdler at three miles, he also has plenty of form over shorter distances and it is possible that today’s Two Miles Three Furlongs could suit better over fences.He has never been the best jumper of the larger obstacles but the fences at Limerick are not overly taxing and he has the additional plus of having Ruby Walsh in the saddle today. Walsh is a great man to get a horse jumping and into a fluent rhythm and his influence could be what the horse needs today. It is interesting that Mullins perseveres over fences with him and today might be his opportunity.

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Plumpton Selection

2.00 – Five Rivers 11/8

Limerick Selection

3.45 – Bundle of Fun 11/8

Abergavenny – Newmarket, Oct 8th

This Brian Ellison-trained four year old has not had things go his way so far this season but he remains a well handicapped horse and could yet pop up in a decent handicap before the end of the year. He first caught the eye over a year ago, when staying on nicely for fourth in a ten furlong rated race at Doncaster behind Willing Foe and again ran a nice race on his seasonal reappearance this year, behind Bonfire Night, also at the Town Moor venue.

Circumstances have conspired against him subsequently, at Newmarket behind Yorgunnabelucky, where he got hampered at a crucial stage, then at Doncaster in September where he was undone by a slow pace and he was given no chance in the Cesarewitch last Saturday, dropped out at the back over a distance which was too far for him. He remains a horse with plenty of talent and is racing off a winnable mark of 85 at present. Connections have been experimenting with him over fourteen furlongs plus, but I believe a strongly run twelve furlongs is what he wants and he would appeal as having solid prospects in the November handicap, to be run on the last day of the UK turf flat season.

Bonifacio – Limerick, Oct 9th

This seven year old gelding has been running wel during a summer campaign in handicap hurdles and again ran a noteworthy race last Sunday at Limerick. Held up out the back, many lengths off the pace, he was forced very wide at crucial stages in the race conceding ground to his rivals. The way the race panned out, I thought he fared pretty well to finish a staying on fifth and to get as close as he did at the finish. He is creeping up the weights slightly but judged on last Sunday’s effort, there could be another low grade handicap hurdle to be won with him.

Lethal Weapon – Curragh, Oct 9th

Now six years old, Lethal Weapon has not quite delivered on the potential he displayed in his juvenile days but judged by his run at the Curragh last Sunday, he possesses plenty of ability and should be winning races soon. On his first start in over five months and running at a inadequate one mile distance, the son of Hawk Wing was unable to go the early pace and became detached in last over the first three furlongs. It was only in the latter stages that he found his rhythm, but he caught the eye in the last couple of furlongs where he made up several lenghts in a short space of time to end up a fast finishing fifth. His trainer Christy Roche is as shrewd operator and there will surely be more to come from this horse either on the flat or over jumps.

My St Clair – Curragh, Oct 9th

A recent addition to the Charles Byrne yard, this mare finished third in the same one mile handicap at the Curragh mentioned above. Having been racing quite freely in the early stages, My St Clair received a hefty knock midway during the race losing a couple of lengths and valuable momentum. She impressed though with the manner in which she rallied and stayed on strongly in the latter stages to finish third. Having been largely out of form in 2011, the switch to Byrnes’ yard may have revitalised her and she is back to a mark of 60 which she was successful off at Dundalk last season. Connections will no doubt be buoyed by her effort last Sunday and she could be capable of going close in a one mile handicap in the coming weeks.

Curragh 4.15 – Bremen 25/1 e/w (NAP) & Dimona 7/1

A very difficult renewal of the Irish Cesarewitch but these staying flat handicaps are my bread and butter and I feel compelled to have a crack at it.

Bremen is a bit of a plodder but he appeals as one to relish the likely slog that this race could develop into and he makes some appeal at a big price. Paul Flynn’s eight year old has been campaigned mainly in National Hunt code over the past couple of seasons but he displayed plenty of promise in his two most recent starts since been switched back to the level. He was not disgraced when fifth in the Amateur handicap at Galway and enjoys an eighteen pounds swing at the weights with his conqueror that day, Fosters Cross, and he is now ten pounds better off with Kalann,who actually finished behind him in the Galway race. The son of Sadlers Wells also performed with credit subsequently when staying on for sixth in the Kingdom Gold Cup at Killarney.The potential stamina sapping nature of this race should see this horse in his element and a decent run would not surprise me.

I will back one of the more fancied contenders also and Dimona gets a tentative vote. Her immediate pedigree as a daughter of Alhaarth and Diliya would raise question marks about her suitability for a gruelling stamina test like this, but the further we delve into her pedigree, it is easier to understand why connections believe stamina could be her forte. Her Grandmother Dalara was a strong staying type in France and she is closely related to a number of staying types on the flat and over hurdles, who also relish soft ground. Dimona seems to have inherited some of this staying prowess judged by her win at Leopardstown in the summer over two miles and by her fair staying on effort behind Zaralabad at Killarnery. I am not convinced she will truly relish a real slog but she stands out as the one of the few potential improvers in the field and her trainer John Oxx has a good record with simalar types.

Curragh 5.20 – Western Pearl 16/1 e/w

Feeling in a speculative mood today and I will take a chance on UK handicapper Western Pearl upstaging what I believe are just an average crop of Irish listed rated perfomers.William Knight’s charge is only rated 93 and on paper faces a very difficult task at level weights here but I am not convinced about many of the more fancied horses in this race, who all appear to have quite an inconsistent profile. The selection’s best performance this season came when third behind Fox Hunt and Tactician in a big handicap at York and that form entitles her to have a squeak here. She disappointed next time out at Newbury but she seems to be a horse who could be better in a bigger field when obtaining more cover. As a daughter of High Chaparral the conditions will hold no fears for her and her proven stamina could be an asset at the business end. In an open contest , she might be the surprise packet with Fran Berry booked.

Goodwood 2.35 – Ballista 20/1

One for a small interest here with Ballista. Tom Dascobe’s gelding has tended to run very freely in all his races thgroughout the year and has struggled to last home at the business end. Last time however, when more patient tactics were employed he caught the eye travelling smoothly out the back and making eye-catching late headway in a Haydock sprint behind Valery Borzov. He had four of today’s field ahead of him that day but if he had encountered a slightly clearer passage, he could have finished much closer. The hold up tactics might be worth another shot and if he can get a bit more luck in -running, he might have a squeak at a big price.

Limerick – Win Treble - 9/2
2.30 – Sailors Warn 4/6
5.05 – Loosen My Load 8/13
5.40 – Far Away So Close 11/10

Given that we are going for a few risky ones today, it might be worth trying a short priced treble to cover ourselves. The above three look to hold pretty solid chances at Limerick today and if avoiding any mishaps should be hard to beat.

Sailors Warn competed in top Juvenile company last season and looks to have a decent opportunity. Loosen My Load competed in top Novice Chase company and if anything should be suited by the drop back to Two Miles and Far Away So Close was a very useful Novice hurdler last season and has been found a very winnable opportunity on his chasing debut.

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Curragh Racing Tips:

4.15 – Bremen 25/1 e/w & Dimona 7/1
5.20 – Western Pear 16/1 e/w

Goodwood Racing Tips:

2.35 – Ballista 20/1

Limerick Racing Tips:

2.30 – Sailors Warn
5.05 – Loosen My Load
5.40 – Far Away So Close 9/2 Treble

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