Now that we’ve covered the intercounty football action this weekend, all that remains is to take a look at the hurling, club and minor action that is also down for decision. In no particular order, here’s a sprinkling of recommendations from the variety of matches taking place all across Ireland.

Minor Football

Both Dublin and Kildare start as prohibitively short priced favourites in the Leinster minor chammpionship this afternoon. Dublin won the Leinster minor league very well, but still will have taken plenty of lessons from a tough final battle with Meath and their round robin draw with Offaly. They look to be going well again, even though it’s an almost entirely new team with only a small handful of players from the 2011 squad still eligible. Longford probably don’t have the players to cause an upset here, but Louth might against an equally well fancied Kildare side.

Louth have struggled at minor level for a long time but they have shown some decent form so far this year and their second half performance against Westmeath looks even better now that the midlanders have gone on to beat Carlow in the qualifiers. Kildare are a very strong team and the Athy pair of David Hyland and Niall Kelly at 6 and 11 respectively are hugely impressive young players, but no group of teenagers can be trusted to play to form all the time, while the large squad in Kildare means that they might be less sure of their best team than some other sides. Boylesports are 9/2 about a Louth win here and that’s enough to justify a small, speculative bet.

Leinster SHC

At the start of the year, punters would have struggled to separate Carlow and Westmeath. Equally, it would have been the view that there was little to call between Laois and Antrim. Those who say that the league is irrelevant need only to look at the betting for today’s games to see that the bookmakers still attach plenty of significance to Spring hurling. Carlow and Antrim went well and so are well fancied, while Laois and Westmeath are very easy to lay.

Antrim should beat Westmath and their price is probably correct, but it’s possible that the market is overestimating the chance of an upset in Dr Cullen Park. Carlow manager Kevin Ryan has come out and claimed that he’s not getting the effort from his players since they won the league – on the one hand there is probably some degree of exaggeration here for the sake of effect, but it’s still not a good sign. Carlow would need to be firing on all cylinders to beat Laois here and it’s odd that there is a disconnect between the match and handicap prices in this fixture – nowhere more than at Ladbrokes, where they are 4/6 about a Laois win and 8/11 Laois minus one on their handicap betting market.

Galway SHC

The relegation battles start this weekend and one of the most intriguing fixtures will be the meeting of Carnmore and Liam Mellows at Athenry tomorrow. It’s unusual in this say and age for teams to be eliminated from a Senior Championship by mid-May, but that’s exactly the situation that these two clubs find themselves in, and picking themselves up to save their senior status is a very different challenge to trying to win a title. Carnmore are a small, close knit club whereas Liam Mellows are a city team, with a bigger pick but perhaps lacking the same solidarity. Neither club has shown any form so far this year – they wouldn’t be in this mess if they had – but if Carnmore can harness the sense of hurt they would have felt after losing to Padraig Pearses by a point, they could be the better betting option here.

Offaly SFC

Needless to say this columnist was always going throw a quick shout to the Offaly championship, where the big event will be the double header in O’Connor Park tomorrow afternoon. The second leg of this double header involves champions Edenderry taking on Tullamore and while Tullamore were very disappointing last year, they’ve always gone well under the guidance of former player Phil O’Reilly, who once again takes charge of his home town. Edenderry’s championship run last year centred around some great play from Richie Dalton and Seán Pender, neither of whom have hit form yet this year. In contrast, Tullamore’s younger players like Michael Brazil, John Moloney and Declan Hogan are all moving well. Boylesports lead the market at 13/10 and should get some interest at that level.

Recommendations

Leinster MFC: Louth to beat Kildare @ 9/2 (Boylesports)

Leinster SHC: Laois to beat Carlow @ 4/6 (Ladbrokes)

Galway SHC: Carnmore to beat Liam Mellows @ 11/8 (Powers)

Offaly SFC: Tullamore to beat Edenderry @ 13/10 (Boylesports)

As we discussed in our column earlier today, the provincial football championships all begin in earnest this weekend, with five teams poised to exit the race for their respective provincial titles on Sunday, barring draws. The Sunday Game cameras will travel to Dr Hyde Park in Roscommon to take in the meeting of the Rossies and Galway in the Connacht quarter final, however there are good betting opportunities all across Ireland, starting at Navan, where Westmeath look well poised to break a run of defeats against Louth.

Westmeath vs Louth

Louth manager Peter Fitzpatrick probably wishes he could play Westmeath every week. In four games against the Lake County, he has guided Louth to four wins, three in the league and one in the 2010 Leinster championship.  Louth also won the last meeting between these two counties before Fitzpatrick took over – a 1-12 to 0-7 victory in the 2007 National League – but previously this was actually a fixture that Westmeath dominated, with seven wins in succession between 2001 and 2006. This column’s suspicion is that the tide could be turning back in Westmeath’s favour, after the Lazarus act that saved their place in Division 2.

Both sides are entitled to be very proud of their achievements in salvaging Division 2 status – both counties were odds on to make the drop – but Westmeath should be a little bit stronger on Sunday than they were in the league, while key absentees from the Louth team should leave them a weaker side than they were in the Spring. John Gaffey, Doran Harte and James Dolan are all selected to start on Sunday having spent most of the Spring playing football in the green and red of Garrycastle instead of the maroon colours of Westmeath, while Eoin O’Connor, Eamon McAuley and Shane Lennon all miss out due to injury on the Louth side.

As if that weren’t enough, Brian White, Brian Donnelly, James Califf and Cathal Bellew have all decided to emigrate to the US for the summer, while regular full back Dessie Finnegan will miss the game as he will be on his honeymoon. Needless to say not all of the eight players listed above would start, but if they were all available, they would possibly fill as many as four of the spinal positions on the team. Louth simply don’t have the depth to justify favouritism with so many gaps in central positions and so Westmeath represent great value.

Longford vs Laois

This is a fascinating game on so many levels. Longford are brimming with confidence, they will play in front of a home crowd, they play a wonderful fast, attacking brand of football and they are looking forward with enthusiasm to this Leinster campaign and in particular the chance to settle a score with Laois, after they came so close to beating them last year. Laois in contrast are riddled with self-doubt, struggling to find form and unsure of their identity. However while both these teams will play division 2 football in 2013, there were two divisions between them this year and this is still the same Laois team that beat both Armagh and Donegal and gave Dublin a tough contest.

For all the reasons listed above, Longford are a very “lovable” county at the moment. They’re the type of plucky underdog that neutrals love, but that can sometimes lead to fundamental flaws being overlooked. For example they are not strong ball winners at midfield, and the swashbuckling, attacking style of their forward division can sometimes leave the defence exposed. However Laois haven’t improved from Spring to Summer for a while now and they aren’t worthy of trust at odds on.

What we can believe in is the likelihood of a high scoring game, Longford’s very way of playing ensures it. Last year Laois played very defensive football but that didn’t really work out for them and Justin McNulty has reverted to a more attacking style this year. Boylesports have pitched their total points mark at 27.5 – on a good playing surface like Pearse Park and in front of a partisan home crowd, we’re confident that number will be surpassed.

Cavan vs Donegal

This is one of those predictions that more experienced GAA pundits don’t usually make, because it can come back to haunt you in the white heat of championship. However we’re going to go ahead and do it anyway, even if it does risk making us look foolish. Donegal should win this with plenty to spare.

Cavan should experience a certain bounce under Terry Hyland and they have some good young footballers to call upon, but they are a world away from where Donegal are in their preparations right now. One of these teams is an All Ireland contender, the other is a team that would be playing division 4 football in 2013 but for the fact that they miraculously found two teams worse than them this year in the third tier. Donegal’s defensive style is the only thing that has this handicap so low, and frankly if it were a six point handicap instead of a three, this columnist would still fancy Donegal to cover, that’s how bad Cavan are.

Limerick vs Waterford

Waterford haven’t beaten anyone other than Clare in the Munster football championship in nearly a quarter of a century.

We give that line a paragraph all to itself so we can allow the magnitude of that statement to sink in. No matter what issues Limerick may have had this year, they still should be better than Waterford, who continue to struggle. If this game were taking place in Fraher Field we might have some belief in the possibility of an upset, but even allowing for the somewhat uncharacteristically free scoring 1-18 to 1-14 win for Waterford when these two counties met in the league, we’d prefer to go for a lower stakes, higher return bet this week than backing the underdogs, who look to be up against it.

So we’re going to pick two players for a first goalscorer bet. First we’ll go with Mark Ferncombe, who scored four goals for Waterford in the league while no other player raised more than a single green flag, and we’re also going to side with Seamus O’Carroll for Limerick. The big full forward is one of the players who should relish the opportunity to go for balls dropping into the square and while he’s been praised highly for his achievements playing handball in recent weeks, he’s also a very accomplished footballer and one who will be a real threat to the Waterford goal this Sunday.

Roscommon vs Galway

If Roscommon manager Des Newton can go into championship battle without feeling the need to start a single member of an under-21 panel that reached the All Ireland final, then clearly he believes that either (a) Roscommon have serious strength in depth, or (b) the under-21′s weren’t that good after all. As with all things, it’s probably a little bit of both.

Galway football this year has given the impression of being very, very close to hitting the mark. Alan Mulholland has imposed a style and pattern to the county’s play and eliminated a lot of the individuality that plagued the Tribesmen in recent years. He now has a young, strong panel who are working hard for each other and if Michael Meehan is in fact close to making a return as is rumoured, then this could yet turn out to be a good summer for Galway. The problem is that they have always shown a genuine disinterest in the qualifiers and in order to avoid that minefield, they need to get out of Dr Hyde Park intact. This could prove tricky, and while this column remains of the view that there are parallels between Roscommon football and the emporor with no clothes, there’s nothing to be gained by punting the Galway at 8/15. Instead, we’ll again play the square ball rule change and side with another big full forward to net the first goal – in this case Paul Conroy of St James and Galway.

Match Betting Recommendations

Louth vs Westmeath: Westmeath to win @ 5/4 (Bet365, Skybet)

Longford vs Laois: Over 27.5 total points @ 5/6 (Boylesports)

Cavan vs Donegal: Donegal -3pts @ 5/6 (Boylesports, Bet365)

Limerick vs Waterford: Seamus O’Carroll @ 7/1 and Mark Ferncombe @ 8/1 to score the first goal. (Ladbrokes)

Roscommon vs Galway: Paul Conroy to score the first goal @ 7/1 (general)

The somewhat ceremonial final between Kildare and Tyrone is still down for decision, but for the rest of the second division of the National Football League, the next competitive game will be championship fare. Following on from our division one assessments, Here’s the Starbets grades on how the eight counties performed in the league this past few months.

Tyrone – A

Honestly, if we could put a gold star onto this grade, we would. Despite peripheral roles from a lot of the older players, Tyrone have been impeccable throughout this league campaign, playing football with great pace and intensity while still giving playing time to plenty of their younger footballers. The one accusation levelled at Mickey Harte in recent years that was probably a little justified is that he was too slow to realise when some of his loyal servants were past their best and no longer worthy of a place in the first fifteen. This year we’ve finally started to see the best of players like Kyle Coney and Peter Harte and the team has benefitted.

All that said, they’ve still got a very tough run through Ulster in prospect. We’re certainly impressed by what they’ve done so far, but that doesn’t automatically imply that they are a great bet for provincial success, at least not at prices shorter than 2/1.

Kildare – B

Whatever problems there are in the short grass county, on the field of play everything is rosy. Their late escape act to come away from Pearse Stadium with a draw proved their character, while they’ve made a mockery of their supposed “need” for a corner forward like Seanie Johnston by scoring more than any other team bar Wexford in the top three divisions. RTE’s decision to take their Leinster quarter-final meeting with Offaly off the air for fear of offending sensitive viewers says it all about where they are right now.

Galway – C

Their disappointing results against Louth and Westmeath came back to haunt them in terms of promotion, but right now division 2 is not a bad place to be for Galway. They still have a lot of rebuilding to do and staying a little bit below the radar is no harm. Defensively they remain quite strong and the forward line now has balance, but the fact that Padraig Joyce is still the standout performer when he’s on the field is a little bit worrying. Without a genuine blue chip attacker, the worry has to be that there is a bit of a glass ceiling in place for them. That said, after the disarray of the past couple of years, this was a solid Spring showing.

Louth – C

For Louth, this league was all about the nine point win in Navan that relegated the Royal County. Everything else that happened during the campaign was merely a preamble to that fixture. However while they performed well, Westmeath’s resurrection is a cause of concern for the championship since the two sides will meet once again next month. Defensively, Peter Fitzpatrick still has a lot to do and there would be concerns in the county that some of their more experienced forwards might not be as effective on the faster ground. They’ve done well, but it’s difficult to see significant further improvement by the summer.

Westmeath – B

Pat Flanagan has performed miracles here extracting Westmeath out of the relegation mire and saving their place in division two. Without any of the Garrycastle players, without several others due to emigration and injury, he masterminded three wins to secure a mid table finish. Now, unexpectedly, there is a great sense of optimism in the county. Denis Glennon looks to be back to his best up front and if John Heslin performs, he can be hugely effective. Right now they’ve got a lot of momentum and they could even be dark horses to give the Dubs a few nervous moments in Croke Park, provided they get through the challenge of Louth in Navan

Derry – D

They could have had few complaints if they were relegated since they never looked on form throughout the league campaign, with the exception of their six point win over Monaghan. None of the forwards have stepped up to support Paddy Bradley and while he’ll obviously get a lot more help this summer from brother Eoin who is almost back to full fitness, no new players established themselves by playing consistently well throughout the campaign. Right now they look like very poor value for the Ulster championship.

Meath – F

Where do you begin? On the field of play, they actually had a few good outings. They started well against Monaghan, they were clinical in the way they put Westmeath to the sword and they produced a great performance against Kildare which could have resulted in a victory, or maybe even a draw. However since then it’s been all downhill, resulting in the current unseemly public squabbling that is unworthy of a county of their stature. It’s clear that Banty has lost the dressing room, but sending Seán Boylan in would be no help. Boylan is one of the greats of the game but his time has come and gone and the biggest point in his favour is that no county board officer could be criticised for giving him the job. They’d be better off losing to Wicklow, because unless something very strange happens, Kildare will obliterate them in a Leinster semi-final.

Monaghan – E

Their tempestuous win over Kildare should have galvanised the team but instead they limped through the rest of the season, passing up great chances to make their division two status secure. They should have done much better in Mullingar, they coughed up a five point lead against Galway and they played Tyrone when the league leaders had nothing to play for. The prospect of re-introducing players like Dessie Mone, Conor McManus and Tommy Freeman for the championship will keep supporters energised and certainly the Ulster championship draw has been very kind, but right now it’s the Paul Finlay show with nothing by way of a support act. That’s just not good enough.

The weekend is barely underway but already plenty of people will have picked their first winner – but nobody will have got rich backing the Offaly minors at 1/250 against Kilkenny. The favourites are generally popular however and the money continues to come in for both Kerry and Cork in advance of the National Football League semi finals in Croke Park tomorrow. Elsewhere there are more minor games and club action is on offer in Tipperary, Wexford and Meath. Here’s our round up with a couple more good value bets.

Kildangan vs Moneygall

Though Barack Obama showed some nice touches with a hurl when he visited Ireland and his ancestral home of Moneygall last year, he didn’t catch the eye of the local team management and that’s despite the fact that Moneygall would be one of the poorest teams in the Tipperary SHC. They started with a very lack lustre performance, losing by ten points to Borris-Ileigh, while Kildangan battled to a good draw with Roscrea. Indeed many observers felt they won the game by a point, even though the referee counted it as a draw. This was despite Darragh Egan’s absence and even though winning a North title might be beyond them, Kildangan look much stronger than Moneygall here.

Louth vs Westmeath

Five of the six first round clashes in the Leinster Minor Football championship look pretty clear cut, but today’s clash at Haggardstown is the exception according to the bookmakers. Louth look decent if unspectacular at this level, while Westmeath have looked forward to this generation for the past two or three years after this group enjoyed a lot of success at development competitions. Their decision to recruit Tommy Carr for the manager’s post was a controversial one to say the least and the jury is out on whether or not that has worked after a very disappointing league campaign. Nonetheless they have got a few good forwards back in since then including Ger Leech of Coralstown/Kinnegad, and Lorcan Dolan from Castledaly. These players were unavailable for long stretches due to their commitment to their schools but they should give the Lake County that touch of class here and help them pull through the challenge of Louth.

Limerick vs Cork

Limerick have a truly shocking record at minor level despite having plenty of patches of real football country out west, and this minor team selection bears that out with the vast majority coming from the footballing heartlands of the county. Odd though it may seem, this isn’t always the case in the Treeaty County. Cork should be very strong as always and manager Ephie Fitzgerald is a very astute judge who is quite highly rated, but Tom McGlinchey has done a lot of work with this Limerick team and they will be very fit, very mobile and with a few seriously sharp threats playing on the wings. Cork should be favourites but Paddy Powers are overdoing it offering 7/1 about a home win here. Keep the stakes small, but at minor level that price is rarely justified.

Final Betting Recommendations

Tipperary SHC: Kildangan to beat Moneygall @ 8/15 (Powers)

Leinster MFC: Westmeath to beat Louth @ 4/5 (Hills)

Munster MFC: Limerick to beat Cork @ 7/1 (Powers)

Unlike the top flight, the lower divisions of the National Football League are littered with contests where there is little or nothing at stake for the competing teams this weekend. Plenty of sides have no reason to look either up or down the table, and while that can often lead to betting opportunities, it’s a dangerous game to play. For that reason, we’re going to start with the most competitive game of them all, the Division Two promotion decider at Pearse Stadium.

Galway vs Kildare

Two good golden rules to follow in the betting game are, never trust Galway at odds on against a weaker opponent, but always respect their ability to produce a very high quality game when you least expect it. A one point haul from their games against Louth and Westmeath seemed to condemn them to another mid table finish at best, but good wins over Monaghan and Meath have salvaged their season and suddenly they face a one off game with promotion on the table for the winner.

However for Galway, the timing could not be worse since the Lilies are on an incredible run of form at the moment, scoring 7-69 in their last four games. Since Galway have yet to score nineteen times in a game this year, never mind average nineteen scores over a run of four games, it’s safe to say that a huge defensive performance will be required if the Tribesmen are to prevail on Sunday.

Kildare’s pursuit of Seanie Johnston continues unabated, but honestly it’s hard to see why he’s needed. They’ve found their rhythm now and while we don’t like opposing Galway at odds on, we’ll instead take Kildare to cover an alternative handicap at a big price. Galway might pull off a shock here, but anything less than their best and they could be on the end of a heavy defeat.

Meath vs Louth

Under normal circumstances, these teams would be cursing their luck as relegation rivals Monaghan got the benefit of playing Tyrone when the Red Hand men were already qualified, but Mickey Harte would be very slow to harm the integrity of the competition so chances are that Tyrone will go for the win and get it, so Meath will probably be safe from relegation regardless of how they go in this fixture. Nonetheless this match has the potential to be quite spiky since there is plenty of feeling left over from the famous Leinster final of 2010, and Louth didn’t exactly make a good effort at redeeming their pride in last year’s qualifier fixture.

The Wee County are actually playing quite well at the moment without necessarily getting the results  their football deserves. While their under-21 players were outclassed on Wednesday night, there are one or two individuals in that panel who are ready to make a meaningful contribution at senior level. Meath too have played some reasonable football in recent weeks but Seán Boylan’s resignation from his “Director of Football” role is very worrying. If Louth can get over their traditional hang up when it comes to playing Meath – admittedly that’s a big if – they look like the value here with the head start.

Cavan vs Antrim

It’s been a real season of two halves for Antrim, who started the league in great form but have now lost three games in a row and would surely be worrying about the drop if the season was only a game or two longer. Cavan haven’t exactly pulled up any trees at any level but they have been moderately competitive throughout the year and their under-21 footballers are certainly leading the way in the county.

Antrim manager Liam Bradley made it clear how seriously – or not – he was taking the fixture when he named a team that went very deep into his panel. Some of these youngsters have a point to prove, but Cavan have a season to save, and they should be capable of doing just that, backboned by their under-21s who continue to go from strength to strength.

NFL Lower Division Recommendations

Galway vs Kildare: Kildare -5pts @ 3/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Louth: Louth +2pts @ 11/10 (general)

Cavan vs Antrim: Cavan @ 5/6 (Stan James/Betpack)

It’s a bit early yet to say that this year will see the launch of another “Drive for Five” in Dublin GAA – or maybe even the “Joy of Six” – but the Metropolitans are off to a good start in the under-21 football championship and they should put the first piece of silverware on the table tonight. Elsewhere there is semi final action in Ulster, while the Connacht title will be decided on Saturday evening in Dr Hyde Park.

Dublin vs Louth

Dublin have enjoyed two large victories in succession in this championship and while Laois were in disarray under Pat Roe, that was a good Westmeath team that they put to the sword a fortnight ago in Parnell Park. Louth by contrast were marginally the better team in their win over Longford, but if it wasn’t for a very kind run of the ball against Offaly, they would have exited the championship at that stage. Without attempting to sound too biased, a perfectly legitimate Offaly goal was pulled back for a free in to be given instead, Anton Sullivan missed two 20m frees and even then Louth were hanging on at the end as Offaly’s greater fitness almost reeled them in. This Louth team may yet provide the template for beating sides that play a blanket defence since their tendency of playing long foot passes from one 45m line to the other and looking for runners off the shoulder instead of playing long from midfield to the scoring zone meant that the football got to the danger area before Offaly defenders did. Nonetheless Dublin won’t be playing such a defensive game, neither will they give Louth as big a head start, and they should cover the handicap.

Tyrone vs Down

Down came into this championship with a strong reputation, but they were severely tested by a very ordinary Antrim team and they could find tonight’s game a bridge too far. The injury to Ronan O’Neill however is a blow to Tyrone and their would be some concern about their full back line, which will be well tested tonight. Of the four games taking place tonight and on Saturday, this is the one best left aside, purely because Down should be a lot better than we’ve seen so far, but it would be a speculative play to bet on the basis that they will either match their potential or merely reproduce their first round form.

Cavan vs Derry

On the face of it, Cavan’s six-point win over Armagh in the first round in Ulster was the most impressive performance of this competition so far. They blew away a very highly rated Armagh team and now they take the favourites’ tag into tonight’s fixture with Derry. However reports subsequent to that game suggest that not all was well in the Armagh camp at the time with a rift existing between senior and under-21 management, while injuries have hit Cavan hard since then. Captain Barry Reilly, freetaker Paul O’Connor and midfielder Killian Brady are all set to miss out tonight and Cavan simply don’t have the depth to replace players of that calibre. One way or another they wouldn’t be in for an easy game tonight against a very strong Derry team and both Boylesports and Hills have cut Derry already. However Boylesports haven’t gone far enough, so take the 7/4 still on offer while you can.

Roscommon vs Sligo

Roscommon came out of the tough side of the draw while Sligo have really proved nothing in a facile win over a Leitrim team shorn of their best forward, but even so the odds here could be a little lopsided. Roscommon’s style of football involves very fast transferring of the football from one end of the field to the other, carrying the ball and avoiding the tackle. They could be vulnerable to a side that packs the scoring zone and forces them to shoot from distance and Sligo may well be that team. Pat Hughes, David Maye and James Clarke are all dominant players in the diamond sector and while Pat Hughes has a huge task on his hands against Roscommon captain Paddy Brogan who was one of the stars of the show against Mayo, midfielders Niall Daly and and Fintan Kelly don’t look entirely natural in these roles and would possibly be happier elsewhere. Powers go 7/2 about a win for Sligo here and that could be a little generous in a game where Roscommon could easily start the match with a touch of complacency.

Under-21 Championship Recommendations

Dublin vs Louth: Dublin -5pts @ 5/6 (Ladbrokes)

Cavan vs Derry: Derry @ 7/4 (Boylesports)

Roscommon vs Sligo: Sligo @ 7/2 (Powers)

Already a fair smattering of teams are all but ruled out of the race for promotion from the lower divisions of the NFL, while several are still looking nervously at the table worrying about relegation. The second last weekend is somewhat akin to golf’s “Moving Day”, or the round where teams have to make a move if they want to get to the business end of proceedings. Here are some of the more interesting fixtures taking place from a betting point of view.

Tyrone vs Meath

Last year was the first league meeting between these two counties in 15 years, and Meath ended up salvaging a draw that saved them from making the drop to division three. Yet again they need a result here or else they would be staring down the barrel of a do or die grudge match with Louth in Navan tomorrow week. Tyrone have been hugely impressive so far but promotion has already been secured and it would be understandable if they didn’t bring quite the same intensity to the table this week. Mickey Harte has made seven changes and while he certainly isn’t ostensibly weakening the team – drafting in players like Ryan McMenamin and Stephen O’Neill is hardly a step back – Boylesports and Bodog (always at the forefront of GAA betting) are both offering 7/2 about a Meath win and we have a sneaking suspicion that this could be a good bet tonight. Alternatively, 11/4 with Ladbrokes on the “Draw no Bet” market could be the way to go.

Derry vs Louth

A scan of the GAA discussion fora and newspapers suggests that what follows is going to be a very popular bet this week, but at the risk of sounding like a sheep following the herd, Derry should cover the spread tonight. These two counties have had sharply contrasting seasons. Louth started very brightly but have since lost three games in a row, conceding an horrific 6-52 in the process, while Derry were very poor in the first couple of weeks of the season but have since bounced back with three much better performances and still have an outside shot at securing promotion. Both sides had excellent performances at under-21 level during the week but at senior level, they are still a long way apart. A three point spread on a neutral venue? Maybe. In Celtic Park? Too low.

Carlow vs Wicklow

Outside of the footballing heartlands of Aughrim, Rathvilly and Baltinglass this fixture might not be the biggest story of the week, but it is a keenly contested local rivalry and a game with plenty at stake. Both sides have lost two games so far and their promotion hopes are hanging by a thread, so defeat here will spell the end of any hopes of going up for either county. Carlow were dealt a blow with the news that Cormac Mullins is to miss out due to injury and his absence greatly reduces the potency of the Carlow attack. However the home side still have enough good forwards, augmented by an incredible midfielder in Brendan Murphy, to accumulate a decent total. The problem is at the other end, where they failed to defend a five point lead against Clare and even conceded scores to Kilkenny last week. Rory Finn has played some good football since joining James Stafford at midfield and there just is a lot more to like about Wicklow here.

NFL Recommendations

Tyrone vs Meath: Meath to win @ 7/2 (Boylesports)

Derry vs Louth: Derry -3pts @ 11/10 (Powers)

Carlow vs Wicklow: Wicklow -1pt @ 5/6 (Hills)

The big Leinster clash in division two of the Allianz League catches the eye of the TV cameras this week as Setanta Sports head to Navan for tonight’s battle between Kildare and Meath at Páirc Tailteann. Kildare enjoyed a comprehensive win over the Royal County in last year’s Leinster football championship, but Seamus McEnaney has enjoyed a good start to this year’s league campaign with wins over Monaghan and Westmeath, while Kildare are languishing at the bottom of the table without a win so far. Elsewhere, Galway travel to Westmeath, Monaghan play Derry in a crunch all-Ulster tie and Tyrone travel to Louth in a game where two unbeaten sides play for a place in the promotion places.

Meath vs Kildare

We know Kildare will start to improve at some stage, but the question is when? Kieran McGeeney’s men enjoyed a similarly slow start to last year’s league campaign but they’ve left themselves under real pressure now and a reverse here in this fixture would make relegation a real possibility. A county with real designs on provincial and All Ireland success can ill afford to be playing football in division three – unless your province is Connacht – and logic dictates that sheer need will push them over the line here. Still, Meath have a great home record in the league and the shrewd betting play could be backing the green flags to stay rooted, with neither inside line looking good at the moment.

Derry vs Monaghan

At the start of the season Derry were considered among the front runners for promotion, while Monaghan were widely regarded as the most likely county to get sucked in if Westmeath or Louth somehow escaped the drop zone. In the first week of competition Derry slipped up against a dangerous Galway team and Monaghan lost to Meath. Fast forward to week two and Derry get hammered by Tyrone (could happen to anyone) while Monaghan win a physical battle with Kildare, and somehow Derry are now 10/11 at home? The betting here is a gross over-reaction to one week of play and at Celtic Park, Derry are well worthy of support.

Louth vs Tyrone

On the basis of their form so far, Tyrone are entitled to be surging up the betting for the All Ireland, never mind the national football league. The Red Hand County have been devastating against both Kildare and Derry, though Louth too will be happy with their haul of three points from games against Westmeath and Galway. The Wee men re-introduce Michael Fanning who has returned from Australia and he slots into the centre back berth, with Jamie Carr returning to corner back, bolstering the full back line. Louth’s optimism will be lifted even further by the news that Monaghan now have to travel to Drogheda, further enhancing their promotion prospects. Louth are not to be opposed lightly right now, much less at home with a three point start.

Westmeath vs Galway

Logic and reason dictates that when you can bet on a home team in a league match with a six point start, you absolutely should do so. Hills go 5/6 about Westmeath plus six points here and after Galway scored a mere nine times against Louth in their previous outing, they don’t look like good bets to clear a large spread.

The issue however is that Westmeath are simply woeful at the moment and supporters are much more interested in their under-21 footballers and the fortunes of Garrycastle than in the county senior team, of whom very little is expected. John Heslin walks straight back into the team after returning from Australia and he’ll add plenty of power to the midfield sector, but right now things aren’t going well for the Lake County and the best way to bet this game is to take a big price about Galway really going to town. Things are coming to a head soon in the midlands, and it’s hard to see Pat Flanagan turning things around in the meantime.

NFL Division 2 Recommendations

Meath vs Kildare: No Goalscorer @ 4/1 (Powers, Hills, Ladbrokes)

Derry vs Monaghan: Derry to win @ 10/11 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

Westmeath vs Galway: Galway to win by 10-12 points @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

Logic would dictate that of the four O’Byrne Cup quarter finals taking place this weekend, the battle between Meath and Louth should be the trickiest to call. After all, the Wee County are the only team yet to line out in this competition – not that a facile win over Kilkenny would have told us anything – and so they are difficult to assess in advance of their battle with Meath in what should be a keenly contested local derby.

As we discussed in this column earlier in the week, the psychological hold that Meath have over their neighbours to the East is significant. The Royal County have historically enjoyed a great run of success against Louth and the controversial Leinster football final of 2010 has only added to that reputation. However we were also quick to dismiss Louth from our outright calculations because of reports that they were going to be fielding a very understrength team in this fixture due to injury and other considerations.

Now while no team with five debutants can be considered “strong”, the news that experienced regulars Paddy Keenan and Dessie Finnegan have been passed fit is of course a boost, while Ray Finnegan, Brian Donnelly, Derek Crilly, Derek Maguire and Andy McDonnell will bring plenty of intercounty craft and know how to the table as well. If we also factor in the range of options that Peter Fitzpatrick will have available to him on the bench, then this is actually a quite decent team by O’Byrne Cup standards. In fact if a bookmaker was to bet on which of the two counties taking part on Sunday will field more of their O’Byrne Cup team in the championship, Louth would be long odds on to send a greater proportion into battle in May and June.

All of this makes the price of 11/4 about Louth with Ladbrokes and Boyles look very appealing. We’ll be the first to admit that we recommended opposing Meath last week at 11/4 and the Royals were full value for their three point win against Wexford on that occasion, but in games like this, with little or nothing at stake, it’s too hard to ignore a big price like that. Certainly prices like 4/11 and 1/3 about Meath make no appeal whatsoever.

Elsewhere in the O’Byrne competitions, this columnist finds it difficult to understand why DIT are favoured to beat Westmeath in their shield contest which throws in at 2pm in Kinnegad this Sunday. DIT are a very different team in 2012 when compared to 010 and 2011 when they were genuine Sigerson cup contenders. Diarmuid Connolly, Kieran Martin, Conor Lynam, Gareth Bradshaw and Tom Cunniffe are among the intercounty players that have left the college, and they simply haven’t replaced those players with others of a similar standard. Kildare cut through them with ease last week and offered the students few opportunities other than from free kicks. Meanwhile Westmeath were soundly beaten by Offaly but that result was largely down to which side showed the better finishing ability in front of goal.

Westmeath will improve considerably for last week’s outing and while they won’t slice through DIT as easily as Kildare did, they should be favourites to come through, not 6/4 underdogs as they are with Paddy Powers and Ladbrokes. We are slightly hesitant to recommend a substantial bet here since there has been early money for the students this week and we don’t take the decision to go against the flow of money in games like this lightly. Nonetheless only someone in O’Connor Park last week could appreciate quite how even that midlands derby was and based on that, Westmeath have a great chance of securing a home win at the Kinnegad venue.

O’Byrne Cup and Shield Recommendations

Meath vs Louth: Louth to win @ 11/4 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes)

Westmeath vs DIT: Westmeath to win @ 6/4 (Powers, Ladbrokes)

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