The somewhat ceremonial final between Kildare and Tyrone is still down for decision, but for the rest of the second division of the National Football League, the next competitive game will be championship fare. Following on from our division one assessments, Here’s the Starbets grades on how the eight counties performed in the league this past few months.

Tyrone – A

Honestly, if we could put a gold star onto this grade, we would. Despite peripheral roles from a lot of the older players, Tyrone have been impeccable throughout this league campaign, playing football with great pace and intensity while still giving playing time to plenty of their younger footballers. The one accusation levelled at Mickey Harte in recent years that was probably a little justified is that he was too slow to realise when some of his loyal servants were past their best and no longer worthy of a place in the first fifteen. This year we’ve finally started to see the best of players like Kyle Coney and Peter Harte and the team has benefitted.

All that said, they’ve still got a very tough run through Ulster in prospect. We’re certainly impressed by what they’ve done so far, but that doesn’t automatically imply that they are a great bet for provincial success, at least not at prices shorter than 2/1.

Kildare – B

Whatever problems there are in the short grass county, on the field of play everything is rosy. Their late escape act to come away from Pearse Stadium with a draw proved their character, while they’ve made a mockery of their supposed “need” for a corner forward like Seanie Johnston by scoring more than any other team bar Wexford in the top three divisions. RTE’s decision to take their Leinster quarter-final meeting with Offaly off the air for fear of offending sensitive viewers says it all about where they are right now.

Galway – C

Their disappointing results against Louth and Westmeath came back to haunt them in terms of promotion, but right now division 2 is not a bad place to be for Galway. They still have a lot of rebuilding to do and staying a little bit below the radar is no harm. Defensively they remain quite strong and the forward line now has balance, but the fact that Padraig Joyce is still the standout performer when he’s on the field is a little bit worrying. Without a genuine blue chip attacker, the worry has to be that there is a bit of a glass ceiling in place for them. That said, after the disarray of the past couple of years, this was a solid Spring showing.

Louth – C

For Louth, this league was all about the nine point win in Navan that relegated the Royal County. Everything else that happened during the campaign was merely a preamble to that fixture. However while they performed well, Westmeath’s resurrection is a cause of concern for the championship since the two sides will meet once again next month. Defensively, Peter Fitzpatrick still has a lot to do and there would be concerns in the county that some of their more experienced forwards might not be as effective on the faster ground. They’ve done well, but it’s difficult to see significant further improvement by the summer.

Westmeath – B

Pat Flanagan has performed miracles here extracting Westmeath out of the relegation mire and saving their place in division two. Without any of the Garrycastle players, without several others due to emigration and injury, he masterminded three wins to secure a mid table finish. Now, unexpectedly, there is a great sense of optimism in the county. Denis Glennon looks to be back to his best up front and if John Heslin performs, he can be hugely effective. Right now they’ve got a lot of momentum and they could even be dark horses to give the Dubs a few nervous moments in Croke Park, provided they get through the challenge of Louth in Navan

Derry – D

They could have had few complaints if they were relegated since they never looked on form throughout the league campaign, with the exception of their six point win over Monaghan. None of the forwards have stepped up to support Paddy Bradley and while he’ll obviously get a lot more help this summer from brother Eoin who is almost back to full fitness, no new players established themselves by playing consistently well throughout the campaign. Right now they look like very poor value for the Ulster championship.

Meath – F

Where do you begin? On the field of play, they actually had a few good outings. They started well against Monaghan, they were clinical in the way they put Westmeath to the sword and they produced a great performance against Kildare which could have resulted in a victory, or maybe even a draw. However since then it’s been all downhill, resulting in the current unseemly public squabbling that is unworthy of a county of their stature. It’s clear that Banty has lost the dressing room, but sending Seán Boylan in would be no help. Boylan is one of the greats of the game but his time has come and gone and the biggest point in his favour is that no county board officer could be criticised for giving him the job. They’d be better off losing to Wicklow, because unless something very strange happens, Kildare will obliterate them in a Leinster semi-final.

Monaghan – E

Their tempestuous win over Kildare should have galvanised the team but instead they limped through the rest of the season, passing up great chances to make their division two status secure. They should have done much better in Mullingar, they coughed up a five point lead against Galway and they played Tyrone when the league leaders had nothing to play for. The prospect of re-introducing players like Dessie Mone, Conor McManus and Tommy Freeman for the championship will keep supporters energised and certainly the Ulster championship draw has been very kind, but right now it’s the Paul Finlay show with nothing by way of a support act. That’s just not good enough.

Unlike the top flight, the lower divisions of the National Football League are littered with contests where there is little or nothing at stake for the competing teams this weekend. Plenty of sides have no reason to look either up or down the table, and while that can often lead to betting opportunities, it’s a dangerous game to play. For that reason, we’re going to start with the most competitive game of them all, the Division Two promotion decider at Pearse Stadium.

Galway vs Kildare

Two good golden rules to follow in the betting game are, never trust Galway at odds on against a weaker opponent, but always respect their ability to produce a very high quality game when you least expect it. A one point haul from their games against Louth and Westmeath seemed to condemn them to another mid table finish at best, but good wins over Monaghan and Meath have salvaged their season and suddenly they face a one off game with promotion on the table for the winner.

However for Galway, the timing could not be worse since the Lilies are on an incredible run of form at the moment, scoring 7-69 in their last four games. Since Galway have yet to score nineteen times in a game this year, never mind average nineteen scores over a run of four games, it’s safe to say that a huge defensive performance will be required if the Tribesmen are to prevail on Sunday.

Kildare’s pursuit of Seanie Johnston continues unabated, but honestly it’s hard to see why he’s needed. They’ve found their rhythm now and while we don’t like opposing Galway at odds on, we’ll instead take Kildare to cover an alternative handicap at a big price. Galway might pull off a shock here, but anything less than their best and they could be on the end of a heavy defeat.

Meath vs Louth

Under normal circumstances, these teams would be cursing their luck as relegation rivals Monaghan got the benefit of playing Tyrone when the Red Hand men were already qualified, but Mickey Harte would be very slow to harm the integrity of the competition so chances are that Tyrone will go for the win and get it, so Meath will probably be safe from relegation regardless of how they go in this fixture. Nonetheless this match has the potential to be quite spiky since there is plenty of feeling left over from the famous Leinster final of 2010, and Louth didn’t exactly make a good effort at redeeming their pride in last year’s qualifier fixture.

The Wee County are actually playing quite well at the moment without necessarily getting the results  their football deserves. While their under-21 players were outclassed on Wednesday night, there are one or two individuals in that panel who are ready to make a meaningful contribution at senior level. Meath too have played some reasonable football in recent weeks but Seán Boylan’s resignation from his “Director of Football” role is very worrying. If Louth can get over their traditional hang up when it comes to playing Meath – admittedly that’s a big if – they look like the value here with the head start.

Cavan vs Antrim

It’s been a real season of two halves for Antrim, who started the league in great form but have now lost three games in a row and would surely be worrying about the drop if the season was only a game or two longer. Cavan haven’t exactly pulled up any trees at any level but they have been moderately competitive throughout the year and their under-21 footballers are certainly leading the way in the county.

Antrim manager Liam Bradley made it clear how seriously – or not – he was taking the fixture when he named a team that went very deep into his panel. Some of these youngsters have a point to prove, but Cavan have a season to save, and they should be capable of doing just that, backboned by their under-21s who continue to go from strength to strength.

NFL Lower Division Recommendations

Galway vs Kildare: Kildare -5pts @ 3/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Louth: Louth +2pts @ 11/10 (general)

Cavan vs Antrim: Cavan @ 5/6 (Stan James/Betpack)

Already a fair smattering of teams are all but ruled out of the race for promotion from the lower divisions of the NFL, while several are still looking nervously at the table worrying about relegation. The second last weekend is somewhat akin to golf’s “Moving Day”, or the round where teams have to make a move if they want to get to the business end of proceedings. Here are some of the more interesting fixtures taking place from a betting point of view.

Tyrone vs Meath

Last year was the first league meeting between these two counties in 15 years, and Meath ended up salvaging a draw that saved them from making the drop to division three. Yet again they need a result here or else they would be staring down the barrel of a do or die grudge match with Louth in Navan tomorrow week. Tyrone have been hugely impressive so far but promotion has already been secured and it would be understandable if they didn’t bring quite the same intensity to the table this week. Mickey Harte has made seven changes and while he certainly isn’t ostensibly weakening the team – drafting in players like Ryan McMenamin and Stephen O’Neill is hardly a step back – Boylesports and Bodog (always at the forefront of GAA betting) are both offering 7/2 about a Meath win and we have a sneaking suspicion that this could be a good bet tonight. Alternatively, 11/4 with Ladbrokes on the “Draw no Bet” market could be the way to go.

Derry vs Louth

A scan of the GAA discussion fora and newspapers suggests that what follows is going to be a very popular bet this week, but at the risk of sounding like a sheep following the herd, Derry should cover the spread tonight. These two counties have had sharply contrasting seasons. Louth started very brightly but have since lost three games in a row, conceding an horrific 6-52 in the process, while Derry were very poor in the first couple of weeks of the season but have since bounced back with three much better performances and still have an outside shot at securing promotion. Both sides had excellent performances at under-21 level during the week but at senior level, they are still a long way apart. A three point spread on a neutral venue? Maybe. In Celtic Park? Too low.

Carlow vs Wicklow

Outside of the footballing heartlands of Aughrim, Rathvilly and Baltinglass this fixture might not be the biggest story of the week, but it is a keenly contested local rivalry and a game with plenty at stake. Both sides have lost two games so far and their promotion hopes are hanging by a thread, so defeat here will spell the end of any hopes of going up for either county. Carlow were dealt a blow with the news that Cormac Mullins is to miss out due to injury and his absence greatly reduces the potency of the Carlow attack. However the home side still have enough good forwards, augmented by an incredible midfielder in Brendan Murphy, to accumulate a decent total. The problem is at the other end, where they failed to defend a five point lead against Clare and even conceded scores to Kilkenny last week. Rory Finn has played some good football since joining James Stafford at midfield and there just is a lot more to like about Wicklow here.

NFL Recommendations

Tyrone vs Meath: Meath to win @ 7/2 (Boylesports)

Derry vs Louth: Derry -3pts @ 11/10 (Powers)

Carlow vs Wicklow: Wicklow -1pt @ 5/6 (Hills)

The big Leinster clash in division two of the Allianz League catches the eye of the TV cameras this week as Setanta Sports head to Navan for tonight’s battle between Kildare and Meath at Páirc Tailteann. Kildare enjoyed a comprehensive win over the Royal County in last year’s Leinster football championship, but Seamus McEnaney has enjoyed a good start to this year’s league campaign with wins over Monaghan and Westmeath, while Kildare are languishing at the bottom of the table without a win so far. Elsewhere, Galway travel to Westmeath, Monaghan play Derry in a crunch all-Ulster tie and Tyrone travel to Louth in a game where two unbeaten sides play for a place in the promotion places.

Meath vs Kildare

We know Kildare will start to improve at some stage, but the question is when? Kieran McGeeney’s men enjoyed a similarly slow start to last year’s league campaign but they’ve left themselves under real pressure now and a reverse here in this fixture would make relegation a real possibility. A county with real designs on provincial and All Ireland success can ill afford to be playing football in division three – unless your province is Connacht – and logic dictates that sheer need will push them over the line here. Still, Meath have a great home record in the league and the shrewd betting play could be backing the green flags to stay rooted, with neither inside line looking good at the moment.

Derry vs Monaghan

At the start of the season Derry were considered among the front runners for promotion, while Monaghan were widely regarded as the most likely county to get sucked in if Westmeath or Louth somehow escaped the drop zone. In the first week of competition Derry slipped up against a dangerous Galway team and Monaghan lost to Meath. Fast forward to week two and Derry get hammered by Tyrone (could happen to anyone) while Monaghan win a physical battle with Kildare, and somehow Derry are now 10/11 at home? The betting here is a gross over-reaction to one week of play and at Celtic Park, Derry are well worthy of support.

Louth vs Tyrone

On the basis of their form so far, Tyrone are entitled to be surging up the betting for the All Ireland, never mind the national football league. The Red Hand County have been devastating against both Kildare and Derry, though Louth too will be happy with their haul of three points from games against Westmeath and Galway. The Wee men re-introduce Michael Fanning who has returned from Australia and he slots into the centre back berth, with Jamie Carr returning to corner back, bolstering the full back line. Louth’s optimism will be lifted even further by the news that Monaghan now have to travel to Drogheda, further enhancing their promotion prospects. Louth are not to be opposed lightly right now, much less at home with a three point start.

Westmeath vs Galway

Logic and reason dictates that when you can bet on a home team in a league match with a six point start, you absolutely should do so. Hills go 5/6 about Westmeath plus six points here and after Galway scored a mere nine times against Louth in their previous outing, they don’t look like good bets to clear a large spread.

The issue however is that Westmeath are simply woeful at the moment and supporters are much more interested in their under-21 footballers and the fortunes of Garrycastle than in the county senior team, of whom very little is expected. John Heslin walks straight back into the team after returning from Australia and he’ll add plenty of power to the midfield sector, but right now things aren’t going well for the Lake County and the best way to bet this game is to take a big price about Galway really going to town. Things are coming to a head soon in the midlands, and it’s hard to see Pat Flanagan turning things around in the meantime.

NFL Division 2 Recommendations

Meath vs Kildare: No Goalscorer @ 4/1 (Powers, Hills, Ladbrokes)

Derry vs Monaghan: Derry to win @ 10/11 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

Westmeath vs Galway: Galway to win by 10-12 points @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

Logic would dictate that of the four O’Byrne Cup quarter finals taking place this weekend, the battle between Meath and Louth should be the trickiest to call. After all, the Wee County are the only team yet to line out in this competition – not that a facile win over Kilkenny would have told us anything – and so they are difficult to assess in advance of their battle with Meath in what should be a keenly contested local derby.

As we discussed in this column earlier in the week, the psychological hold that Meath have over their neighbours to the East is significant. The Royal County have historically enjoyed a great run of success against Louth and the controversial Leinster football final of 2010 has only added to that reputation. However we were also quick to dismiss Louth from our outright calculations because of reports that they were going to be fielding a very understrength team in this fixture due to injury and other considerations.

Now while no team with five debutants can be considered “strong”, the news that experienced regulars Paddy Keenan and Dessie Finnegan have been passed fit is of course a boost, while Ray Finnegan, Brian Donnelly, Derek Crilly, Derek Maguire and Andy McDonnell will bring plenty of intercounty craft and know how to the table as well. If we also factor in the range of options that Peter Fitzpatrick will have available to him on the bench, then this is actually a quite decent team by O’Byrne Cup standards. In fact if a bookmaker was to bet on which of the two counties taking part on Sunday will field more of their O’Byrne Cup team in the championship, Louth would be long odds on to send a greater proportion into battle in May and June.

All of this makes the price of 11/4 about Louth with Ladbrokes and Boyles look very appealing. We’ll be the first to admit that we recommended opposing Meath last week at 11/4 and the Royals were full value for their three point win against Wexford on that occasion, but in games like this, with little or nothing at stake, it’s too hard to ignore a big price like that. Certainly prices like 4/11 and 1/3 about Meath make no appeal whatsoever.

Elsewhere in the O’Byrne competitions, this columnist finds it difficult to understand why DIT are favoured to beat Westmeath in their shield contest which throws in at 2pm in Kinnegad this Sunday. DIT are a very different team in 2012 when compared to 010 and 2011 when they were genuine Sigerson cup contenders. Diarmuid Connolly, Kieran Martin, Conor Lynam, Gareth Bradshaw and Tom Cunniffe are among the intercounty players that have left the college, and they simply haven’t replaced those players with others of a similar standard. Kildare cut through them with ease last week and offered the students few opportunities other than from free kicks. Meanwhile Westmeath were soundly beaten by Offaly but that result was largely down to which side showed the better finishing ability in front of goal.

Westmeath will improve considerably for last week’s outing and while they won’t slice through DIT as easily as Kildare did, they should be favourites to come through, not 6/4 underdogs as they are with Paddy Powers and Ladbrokes. We are slightly hesitant to recommend a substantial bet here since there has been early money for the students this week and we don’t take the decision to go against the flow of money in games like this lightly. Nonetheless only someone in O’Connor Park last week could appreciate quite how even that midlands derby was and based on that, Westmeath have a great chance of securing a home win at the Kinnegad venue.

O’Byrne Cup and Shield Recommendations

Meath vs Louth: Louth to win @ 11/4 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes)

Westmeath vs DIT: Westmeath to win @ 6/4 (Powers, Ladbrokes)

Now that the dust has settled on the first round of the O’Byrne Cup, now is a good time to step back and assess the first round games with a view to isolating any potential value in the antepost betting market at this stage of the competition.

Of the eight teams remaining, it seems easy enough to draw a line through three of the remaining sides at the very least. Longford laboured to a win over a very mediocre Athlone IT team and while they’ll give DCU plenty to think about this Sunday, that still represents a huge step up in class for them. Of course the county sides are the ones who should find the most improvement between rounds at this time of year since they are starting from a lower base in terms of fitness and cohesion, but even so any side worth their salt in this competition should have got through the challenge of a college like Athlone IT , who are a long way down the betting list for the Sigerson Cup, with a lot more to spare.

The football in O’Connor Park between Offaly and Westmeath was wholehearted, but both sides showed plenty of ring rust and the victors here will almost certainly exit the race for the O’Byrne cup this Sunday in Newbridge. Stand in manager James Stewart is entitled to be happy with how his team performed, but you won’t win too many games only scoring nine times and it wasn’t as if his players created many more chances – largely speaking their full forward line was very isolated and 3-6 was a very rich harvest off little or no supply to the inside men, including last year’s goalkeeper Alan Mulhall.

UCD’s win in Crettyard over Laois looks like good form on paper, but they were heavily dependent on Donie Kingston and that was against a woefully understrength Laois team. They too will find the going much tougher this week and unless they have some heavyweight players to spring for their match in Parnell Park this Saturday, they should be on their way out.

Of the five remaining teams, Louth will probably feel that they have a good chance after coming so close last year and God knows it’s difficult to go broke backing Louth to win football matches before Easter, but even so the psychological hold that Meath have over Louth is one of the most powerful in the GAA and even though Meath were far from spectacular in overcoming Wexford, even at 14/1 Louth make no appeal. While we wouldn’t dismiss them entirely as potential winners, price determines value and they offer little or none at this level.

Meath themselves would have to show a lot more in the next few weeks to merit serious consideration but even so at 5/1 with Ladbrokes, we’d be slow to write them off completely. Dublin and Kildare are both on the other side of the draw and there would be little to call between the Royals and DCU, who are also best priced at 5/1 with Paddy Power. DCU’s win over Wicklow was somewhat controversial, in as much as any O’Byrne Cup match could ever be controversial, and the Garden County felt a little bit hard done by not to at least have been given a chance at extra time in that fixture. Nonetheless such a tough tie will undoubtedly stand to the North Dublin students and they look well poised to continue their good run in Pearse Park this Sunday.

The Dubs used a lot more of their proven footballers than they would normally employ in this competition for their battle with Carlow at Dr Cullen Park, and that was undoubtedly a key factor in why they weren’t relegated to the O’Byrne Shield for the second year in succession. Pat Gilroy’s ability to spring a reliable scorer like Mossy Quinn from the bench was the crucial deciding factor in one of the most entertaining matches that took place last weekend and certainly there is no shortage of depth in Dublin football right now. Subsequently, picking heavily from the fringes of the panel is unlikely to weaken their side too severely.

However in terms of eye catching football, Kildare were by some distance the best side on display in Leinster last week. The nature of Kieran McGeeney’s system is such that it draws heavily on athleticism and power, but doesn’t necessarily ask players to be gifted or inventive on a consistent basis. Because of this and the approach in Kildare which asks the junior and under-21 sides to apply the same tactical strategy, McGeeney is able to slot in any number of footballers into his system and know that they’ll work well within his team and probably overpower their opponents. DIT are clearly not at the same level as they were in 2011, but even so they still possess several decent footballers who will expect to start for their counties in the summer and the manner with which Kildare swatted them aside was hugely impressive.

Kildare should saunter through the challenge of Offaly this week and while playing Dublin will be a much tougher test if that match comes to pass, overall they look like very solid 5/2 shots right now with Ladbrokes. Indeed it’s notable that Powers went 5/2 on Monday, but have since cut the price into 2/1, presumably due to bets being laid at the larger odds.

O’Byrne Cup Antepost Recommendations

Kildare to win @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)

DCU to win @ 5/1 (Powers)

Unlike the McKenna Cup, discussed in our most recent column, the O’Byrne Cup as a betting event is loaded with pitfalls. We know that certain teams will be trying harder than others, and we know that certain teams will be at completely different fitness levels – however it’s not always easy to anticipate which teams will be which.

Equally, Leinster college teams are much less predictable, even from one week to the next. Take Athlone IT in 2011 – in the first round of the Cup competition, they shipped a 2-15 to 0-4 hiding from Louth. The following weekend, they were being cursed by accumulator punters all across Ireland as they held Laois to a draw in the first round of the O’Byrne shield. As such, betting recommendations on this competition can be somewhat akin to directions on how to get to mass going through the fields. You could get where you’re going bright and early all right, but if you’re not careful you’ll have destroyed a good pair of shoes in the process.

Now that we’ve got that ridiculous metaphor behind us, let’s look at Offaly vs Westmeath in O’Connor Park. For the guts of half a century this was one of the most one sided rivalries in football. For every narrow win that Westmeath secured in a lowly league or O’Byrne Cup match, Offaly had three narrow wins and a hiding or two to boot. Westmeath were unable to get a championship win over their southerly neighbours for love nor money, even in 1997 when Offaly’s ultimately successful Leinster championship run was almost derailed in Tullamore in the first round.

Then in 2004 Offaly shot sixteen wides, Wesmeath shot six and one of them by Fergal Wilson was awarded as a score, the Lake County ended up 0-11 to 0-10 ahead and a psychological hold was broken at long last. Since then both counties have had good days and bad days against each other, and no obvious trend has emerged. Looking at the players available for Sunday’s battle in O’Connor Park, predicting a winner is no less difficult. Offaly are without their three senior players from last year in Ciarán McManus, Scott Brady and Karol Slattery, Niall McNamee is unavailable due to injury and their team contains a lot of fresh blood but a distinct shortage of proven players. Certainly this writer can’t recall the last time that any team went to battle with a full back and centre back both around 5 foot 9 in height.

Westmeath will be missing a few injured players, all of their Garrycastle contingent and of course will also be short John Heslin, while Francis Boyle and Brendan Murtagh have decided to throw their lot in with the Westmeath hurling team for 2012 and give complete commitment to manager Brian Hanley. That in turn is a huge hole in Pat Flanagan’s resources, perhaps more than he could handle. However Denis Glennon has shown in preseason matches that he’s in form, and in a match with little concrete information, one blue chip forward is enough to justify a small bet on Westmeath at 11/8.

The second O’Byrne Cup match worthy of interest tomorrow has to be the meeting of Meath and Wexford in Navan. At the risk of going over old ground, this pairing continues to offer value every time they meet – for five or six years now, there has been little to choose between these counties, and yet the bookies persist in making Meath long odds on favourites every time, whether it’s O’Byrne Cup, league or championship. Wexford have named an experimental team, but Meath are likely to do the same, and the 11/4 from Paddy Powers about the visitors is simply wrong.

Wexford have won five of their last six meetings with Meath in all competitions and have no fear whatsoever of the Royal County. Home advantage and perhaps a little bit more strength in depth is probably worth a  couple of points to Meath, but 8/15 or 1/2 would be plenty short enough about them. Take Wexford to triumph, small stakes only however.

O’Byrne Cup Recommendations

Offaly vs Westmeath: Westmeath @ 11/8 (Boylesports)

Meath vs Wexford: Wexford @ 11/4 (Powers)

Continuing now with the third part in the series, detailing those counties that will be hoping to make a real breakthrough into the top tier in 2012…..

17. Roscommon (16 – Disimprovement)

Few counties better illustrate the inequity of the current provincial structure than Roscommon, who have reached the last twelve of the All Ireland race for each of the last two seasons despite failing to beat any top twenty county in league or championship along the way. That there is talent in the county cannot be questioned and that’s the only reason why they aren’t ranked even lower, but a few cracks are starting to appear that suggest that some of their brightest hopes from the 2006 minor team simply aren’t progressing as well as many supporters would have hoped. Players like Peter Domican, Senan Kilbride and Cathal Cregg would be welcome into any county team in Ireland, but there will be no handy run to the Connacht final this year and as a result it would be a huge surprise to this column if they were still playing football in August.

16. Limerick (17 – slight disimprovement)

A little bit more luck in the early part of the league would have gone a long way and by the time they found their rhythm in the summer, even without talismanic midfielder John Galvin, they looked like a dangerous force in the qualifiers. The draw was extremely kind to them and not many teams would get to reach an All Ireland quarter final beating only division three sides, but it’s hard to be too critical of a team that only lost to Kerry in the championship. If they can continue to create space for what is a very potent forward line they’ll do well, but their league match against Fermanagh will be particularly revealing as no side under Canavan is likely to allow a lot of space to their direct opponents. Expect Fermanagh to write the script for how to neutralise Limerick in 2012.

15. Laois (15 – no change)

Based on league form, Laois deserve to be ranked much higher than this, but in the championship they’ve made little or no impression for some years now. Manager Justin McNulty looked like he was achieving some good things in the county but the poor state of their domestic championship is a concern and many of their younger prospects aren’t progressing as well as they should. They will almost certainly get relegated from division one but if they can learn from playing at that standard, they might just have enough to come through a treacherous first round championship tie against Longford.

14. Meath (11 – Slight disimprovement)

The wisdom in picking a non-Meath manager to take charge of the Royal County for the first time is being questioned at the moment with Seamus McEnaney yet to win over the footballing public in Meath. Up front the county has no problems with a string of capable attacking players but the absence of Nigel Crawford will be keenly felt this year while all across the midfield and half back line there are concerns. Their reputation is masking quite how many problems there are in Meath football at the moment.

13. Monaghan (13 – disimprovement)

Their shocking qualifier performance in Tullamore last year was either the portent of the start of a long term decline or else one bad day, an anomaly to be ignored. Sadly for Monaghan supporters, this column suspects it could be the former. The Farney men have been one of the most competitive and consistent counties in terms of punching above their weight in the last few years but a lot of that was down to Tommy Freeman’s incisive play up front and while Conor McManus has stepped up to a certain degree, some very average footballers have seen significant playing time under Seamus McEneaney. Their attitude to the game means that they won’t slip too far but if we were to predict one championship upset now, Antrim vs Monaghan in Clones in the first round of the Ulster championship would be our first choice.

12. Wexford (14 – Slight improvement)

After a couple of years of stagnation, Wexford finally found their rhythm in 2011 and were very unlucky both in terms of missing out on promotion and in losing out to Limerick in the fourth round of the qualifiers. Indeed Kerry were probably delighted to see Limerick trip up Wexford because the Slaneysiders could have created a much more interesting All Ireland quarter final if they had advanced to meet the Kingdom. They have an experienced squad that physically are a lot more powerful than they’ve been given credit for and by far they look like the most realistic contender for a Leinster title outside of the big two.

11. Galway (10 – improvement)

If you were to design a scenario where a county should be poised to make huge gains in 2012, you’d struggle to create anything more ideal than the situation out west. You have a very strong club championship, a highly talented bunch of young footballers waiting in the wings, a local manager who has earned respect with his achievements and a group of senior players that must be eager to start accumulating the medals that their talent warrants. The problem is that many of these conditions have been in place previously. Time will tell if Alan Mulholland can unlock the world of potential that lies in Galway football, but if he can’t manage it, there’s little hope for anyone.

10. Armagh (12 – No change)

The depth in Armagh football is not as much of a strength as many outside the county believe, but they have some fine individual talents and players like Aaron Kernan are incredibly good role models for the younger players that are coming in. One or two injuries tend to hit the county very hard but they are not as far off the pace as all that. If Jamie Clarke starts replicating his club form in the Ulster Championship, they could be real dark horses to take provincial honours.

9. Derry (9 – Slight improvement)

Last year was a glorious chance for an Ulster title that went astray and one wonders quite how many such chances will come their way. If we were projecting well into the future we’d struggle to be optimistic for the Derry men but in the short term, 2012 has to be a big year for the county. Injury permitting both Paddy and Eoghan Bradley will be available to manager John Brennan and if he can get the two Glenullin brothers working well within the framework of the team, he’ll have a unit capable of a lot of success.

So, hot on the heels after our initial look at the newly formed betting market for Division 1 of the National Football League, let’s step down the order and take our first look at division two and the counties hoping to earn a shot at the big guns in 2013. Traditionally the second and third tier contests are the most competitive, however 2010 was a little different in that Antrim, Sligo and Meath were very much cut adrift at the bottom, playing noticeably poorer than the other five teams in the division two race. Meath were the county who managed to escape making the drop out of that trio and they will enjoy plenty of local derbies next year with games to come against Kildare, Westmeath, Louth and Monaghan, home county of manager Seamus McEnaney.

At the other end of the table last year it was Laois and Donegal who secured promotion, meaning that league heavyweights Kildare, Derry and Tyrone must spend another year at this level. Boylesports and Ladbrokes both make Tyrone and Kildare joint favourites at 3/1 each, while Hills and Powers both side with the Ulster men at 5/2 and go 7/2 Kildare. Despite the plethora of retirements out of the Tyrone squad that we’ve seen over the last few months, a quick look at the fixture list illustrates why Powers and Hills might be the ones with the right idea here.

Tyrone are down for four home games while Kildare have only three, but in fact this advantage is even more skewed since one of Kildare’s home games is their first round fixture against Tyrone, which has been moved to neutral Croke Park. Kieran McGeeney is likely to spend the earlier part of the season putting his squad through intense physical preparation and they won’t be looking to peak too early, while Mickey Harte is very keen on competing against the best teams in the league and would relish the opportunity to get back up into the top flight. It’s not that his relatively fresh squad will be spared tough training, but he’ll still be chasing every league point on offer. If they can get a result against Kildare in the first round they’ll be hard stopped, while even if they don’t, they’ll have four home games and a trip to Louth still to come, five games where they’ll be favoured to win.

Meath’s away form in the league is too shocking to trust, while Louth and Westmeath simply don’t have the personnel to win five games in this company. Westmeath did play division one football only a couple of years ago however they were badly exposed at that level and while they deserved their promotion from division three last year, neither they nor Louth could argue that they were significantly better than any of the other teams in what was a ridiculously evenly matched division.

The wild card here is Galway. The Galway footballers are beginning to mimic their hurlers in that they’ve enjoyed plenty of underage success, they have a thriving club scene that would rival any county in Ireland, and yet they’ve flattered to deceive when it comes to championship football. This columnist has shown faith in them a few times only to be severely punished for doing so, however lloking at all the factors, we’d still be slow to oppose them next year. Whether that’s a fair opinion or failing to learn from our mistakes remains to be seen. The appointment of Alan Mulholland is a nice change of pace after two years of different outside managers and they certainly can’t argue with a schedule that gave them four home games and brings their three main rivals in the betting – Tyrone, Kildare and Meath – west of the Shannon to either Tuam or Pearse Stadium.

Memories of previous bad bets will be a tough barrier for this columnist to overcome before we recommend them again, however they are well worth watching with interest in preseason competition.

Monaghan and Derry were also only given three home games, but the Oak Leaf men won’t be too worried about making the short spin down the A505 towards Healy Park and they’ll also be confident that if they put themselves in a position where they need a result in Mullingar in the last round to secure promotion, that’s well within their grasp. Paddy Power are biggest at 7/1 Derry and they will surely see plenty of interest in a county that has played some of their best football in the league in recent years. Here at Starbets we’d like to be a lot more certain of how close to full strength they’ll be before getting stuck in, but it’s the kind of price that is well worth putting in the “maybe” column, to be re-examined in January.

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