For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

Logic would dictate that of the four O’Byrne Cup quarter finals taking place this weekend, the battle between Meath and Louth should be the trickiest to call. After all, the Wee County are the only team yet to line out in this competition – not that a facile win over Kilkenny would have told us anything – and so they are difficult to assess in advance of their battle with Meath in what should be a keenly contested local derby.

As we discussed in this column earlier in the week, the psychological hold that Meath have over their neighbours to the East is significant. The Royal County have historically enjoyed a great run of success against Louth and the controversial Leinster football final of 2010 has only added to that reputation. However we were also quick to dismiss Louth from our outright calculations because of reports that they were going to be fielding a very understrength team in this fixture due to injury and other considerations.

Now while no team with five debutants can be considered “strong”, the news that experienced regulars Paddy Keenan and Dessie Finnegan have been passed fit is of course a boost, while Ray Finnegan, Brian Donnelly, Derek Crilly, Derek Maguire and Andy McDonnell will bring plenty of intercounty craft and know how to the table as well. If we also factor in the range of options that Peter Fitzpatrick will have available to him on the bench, then this is actually a quite decent team by O’Byrne Cup standards. In fact if a bookmaker was to bet on which of the two counties taking part on Sunday will field more of their O’Byrne Cup team in the championship, Louth would be long odds on to send a greater proportion into battle in May and June.

All of this makes the price of 11/4 about Louth with Ladbrokes and Boyles look very appealing. We’ll be the first to admit that we recommended opposing Meath last week at 11/4 and the Royals were full value for their three point win against Wexford on that occasion, but in games like this, with little or nothing at stake, it’s too hard to ignore a big price like that. Certainly prices like 4/11 and 1/3 about Meath make no appeal whatsoever.

Elsewhere in the O’Byrne competitions, this columnist finds it difficult to understand why DIT are favoured to beat Westmeath in their shield contest which throws in at 2pm in Kinnegad this Sunday. DIT are a very different team in 2012 when compared to 010 and 2011 when they were genuine Sigerson cup contenders. Diarmuid Connolly, Kieran Martin, Conor Lynam, Gareth Bradshaw and Tom Cunniffe are among the intercounty players that have left the college, and they simply haven’t replaced those players with others of a similar standard. Kildare cut through them with ease last week and offered the students few opportunities other than from free kicks. Meanwhile Westmeath were soundly beaten by Offaly but that result was largely down to which side showed the better finishing ability in front of goal.

Westmeath will improve considerably for last week’s outing and while they won’t slice through DIT as easily as Kildare did, they should be favourites to come through, not 6/4 underdogs as they are with Paddy Powers and Ladbrokes. We are slightly hesitant to recommend a substantial bet here since there has been early money for the students this week and we don’t take the decision to go against the flow of money in games like this lightly. Nonetheless only someone in O’Connor Park last week could appreciate quite how even that midlands derby was and based on that, Westmeath have a great chance of securing a home win at the Kinnegad venue.

O’Byrne Cup and Shield Recommendations

Meath vs Louth: Louth to win @ 11/4 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes)

Westmeath vs DIT: Westmeath to win @ 6/4 (Powers, Ladbrokes)

Now that the dust has settled on the first round of the O’Byrne Cup, now is a good time to step back and assess the first round games with a view to isolating any potential value in the antepost betting market at this stage of the competition.

Of the eight teams remaining, it seems easy enough to draw a line through three of the remaining sides at the very least. Longford laboured to a win over a very mediocre Athlone IT team and while they’ll give DCU plenty to think about this Sunday, that still represents a huge step up in class for them. Of course the county sides are the ones who should find the most improvement between rounds at this time of year since they are starting from a lower base in terms of fitness and cohesion, but even so any side worth their salt in this competition should have got through the challenge of a college like Athlone IT , who are a long way down the betting list for the Sigerson Cup, with a lot more to spare.

The football in O’Connor Park between Offaly and Westmeath was wholehearted, but both sides showed plenty of ring rust and the victors here will almost certainly exit the race for the O’Byrne cup this Sunday in Newbridge. Stand in manager James Stewart is entitled to be happy with how his team performed, but you won’t win too many games only scoring nine times and it wasn’t as if his players created many more chances – largely speaking their full forward line was very isolated and 3-6 was a very rich harvest off little or no supply to the inside men, including last year’s goalkeeper Alan Mulhall.

UCD’s win in Crettyard over Laois looks like good form on paper, but they were heavily dependent on Donie Kingston and that was against a woefully understrength Laois team. They too will find the going much tougher this week and unless they have some heavyweight players to spring for their match in Parnell Park this Saturday, they should be on their way out.

Of the five remaining teams, Louth will probably feel that they have a good chance after coming so close last year and God knows it’s difficult to go broke backing Louth to win football matches before Easter, but even so the psychological hold that Meath have over Louth is one of the most powerful in the GAA and even though Meath were far from spectacular in overcoming Wexford, even at 14/1 Louth make no appeal. While we wouldn’t dismiss them entirely as potential winners, price determines value and they offer little or none at this level.

Meath themselves would have to show a lot more in the next few weeks to merit serious consideration but even so at 5/1 with Ladbrokes, we’d be slow to write them off completely. Dublin and Kildare are both on the other side of the draw and there would be little to call between the Royals and DCU, who are also best priced at 5/1 with Paddy Power. DCU’s win over Wicklow was somewhat controversial, in as much as any O’Byrne Cup match could ever be controversial, and the Garden County felt a little bit hard done by not to at least have been given a chance at extra time in that fixture. Nonetheless such a tough tie will undoubtedly stand to the North Dublin students and they look well poised to continue their good run in Pearse Park this Sunday.

The Dubs used a lot more of their proven footballers than they would normally employ in this competition for their battle with Carlow at Dr Cullen Park, and that was undoubtedly a key factor in why they weren’t relegated to the O’Byrne Shield for the second year in succession. Pat Gilroy’s ability to spring a reliable scorer like Mossy Quinn from the bench was the crucial deciding factor in one of the most entertaining matches that took place last weekend and certainly there is no shortage of depth in Dublin football right now. Subsequently, picking heavily from the fringes of the panel is unlikely to weaken their side too severely.

However in terms of eye catching football, Kildare were by some distance the best side on display in Leinster last week. The nature of Kieran McGeeney’s system is such that it draws heavily on athleticism and power, but doesn’t necessarily ask players to be gifted or inventive on a consistent basis. Because of this and the approach in Kildare which asks the junior and under-21 sides to apply the same tactical strategy, McGeeney is able to slot in any number of footballers into his system and know that they’ll work well within his team and probably overpower their opponents. DIT are clearly not at the same level as they were in 2011, but even so they still possess several decent footballers who will expect to start for their counties in the summer and the manner with which Kildare swatted them aside was hugely impressive.

Kildare should saunter through the challenge of Offaly this week and while playing Dublin will be a much tougher test if that match comes to pass, overall they look like very solid 5/2 shots right now with Ladbrokes. Indeed it’s notable that Powers went 5/2 on Monday, but have since cut the price into 2/1, presumably due to bets being laid at the larger odds.

O’Byrne Cup Antepost Recommendations

Kildare to win @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)

DCU to win @ 5/1 (Powers)

Unlike the McKenna Cup, discussed in our most recent column, the O’Byrne Cup as a betting event is loaded with pitfalls. We know that certain teams will be trying harder than others, and we know that certain teams will be at completely different fitness levels – however it’s not always easy to anticipate which teams will be which.

Equally, Leinster college teams are much less predictable, even from one week to the next. Take Athlone IT in 2011 – in the first round of the Cup competition, they shipped a 2-15 to 0-4 hiding from Louth. The following weekend, they were being cursed by accumulator punters all across Ireland as they held Laois to a draw in the first round of the O’Byrne shield. As such, betting recommendations on this competition can be somewhat akin to directions on how to get to mass going through the fields. You could get where you’re going bright and early all right, but if you’re not careful you’ll have destroyed a good pair of shoes in the process.

Now that we’ve got that ridiculous metaphor behind us, let’s look at Offaly vs Westmeath in O’Connor Park. For the guts of half a century this was one of the most one sided rivalries in football. For every narrow win that Westmeath secured in a lowly league or O’Byrne Cup match, Offaly had three narrow wins and a hiding or two to boot. Westmeath were unable to get a championship win over their southerly neighbours for love nor money, even in 1997 when Offaly’s ultimately successful Leinster championship run was almost derailed in Tullamore in the first round.

Then in 2004 Offaly shot sixteen wides, Wesmeath shot six and one of them by Fergal Wilson was awarded as a score, the Lake County ended up 0-11 to 0-10 ahead and a psychological hold was broken at long last. Since then both counties have had good days and bad days against each other, and no obvious trend has emerged. Looking at the players available for Sunday’s battle in O’Connor Park, predicting a winner is no less difficult. Offaly are without their three senior players from last year in Ciarán McManus, Scott Brady and Karol Slattery, Niall McNamee is unavailable due to injury and their team contains a lot of fresh blood but a distinct shortage of proven players. Certainly this writer can’t recall the last time that any team went to battle with a full back and centre back both around 5 foot 9 in height.

Westmeath will be missing a few injured players, all of their Garrycastle contingent and of course will also be short John Heslin, while Francis Boyle and Brendan Murtagh have decided to throw their lot in with the Westmeath hurling team for 2012 and give complete commitment to manager Brian Hanley. That in turn is a huge hole in Pat Flanagan’s resources, perhaps more than he could handle. However Denis Glennon has shown in preseason matches that he’s in form, and in a match with little concrete information, one blue chip forward is enough to justify a small bet on Westmeath at 11/8.

The second O’Byrne Cup match worthy of interest tomorrow has to be the meeting of Meath and Wexford in Navan. At the risk of going over old ground, this pairing continues to offer value every time they meet – for five or six years now, there has been little to choose between these counties, and yet the bookies persist in making Meath long odds on favourites every time, whether it’s O’Byrne Cup, league or championship. Wexford have named an experimental team, but Meath are likely to do the same, and the 11/4 from Paddy Powers about the visitors is simply wrong.

Wexford have won five of their last six meetings with Meath in all competitions and have no fear whatsoever of the Royal County. Home advantage and perhaps a little bit more strength in depth is probably worth a  couple of points to Meath, but 8/15 or 1/2 would be plenty short enough about them. Take Wexford to triumph, small stakes only however.

O’Byrne Cup Recommendations

Offaly vs Westmeath: Westmeath @ 11/8 (Boylesports)

Meath vs Wexford: Wexford @ 11/4 (Powers)

Continuing now with the third part in the series, detailing those counties that will be hoping to make a real breakthrough into the top tier in 2012…..

17. Roscommon (16 – Disimprovement)

Few counties better illustrate the inequity of the current provincial structure than Roscommon, who have reached the last twelve of the All Ireland race for each of the last two seasons despite failing to beat any top twenty county in league or championship along the way. That there is talent in the county cannot be questioned and that’s the only reason why they aren’t ranked even lower, but a few cracks are starting to appear that suggest that some of their brightest hopes from the 2006 minor team simply aren’t progressing as well as many supporters would have hoped. Players like Peter Domican, Senan Kilbride and Cathal Cregg would be welcome into any county team in Ireland, but there will be no handy run to the Connacht final this year and as a result it would be a huge surprise to this column if they were still playing football in August.

16. Limerick (17 – slight disimprovement)

A little bit more luck in the early part of the league would have gone a long way and by the time they found their rhythm in the summer, even without talismanic midfielder John Galvin, they looked like a dangerous force in the qualifiers. The draw was extremely kind to them and not many teams would get to reach an All Ireland quarter final beating only division three sides, but it’s hard to be too critical of a team that only lost to Kerry in the championship. If they can continue to create space for what is a very potent forward line they’ll do well, but their league match against Fermanagh will be particularly revealing as no side under Canavan is likely to allow a lot of space to their direct opponents. Expect Fermanagh to write the script for how to neutralise Limerick in 2012.

15. Laois (15 – no change)

Based on league form, Laois deserve to be ranked much higher than this, but in the championship they’ve made little or no impression for some years now. Manager Justin McNulty looked like he was achieving some good things in the county but the poor state of their domestic championship is a concern and many of their younger prospects aren’t progressing as well as they should. They will almost certainly get relegated from division one but if they can learn from playing at that standard, they might just have enough to come through a treacherous first round championship tie against Longford.

14. Meath (11 – Slight disimprovement)

The wisdom in picking a non-Meath manager to take charge of the Royal County for the first time is being questioned at the moment with Seamus McEnaney yet to win over the footballing public in Meath. Up front the county has no problems with a string of capable attacking players but the absence of Nigel Crawford will be keenly felt this year while all across the midfield and half back line there are concerns. Their reputation is masking quite how many problems there are in Meath football at the moment.

13. Monaghan (13 – disimprovement)

Their shocking qualifier performance in Tullamore last year was either the portent of the start of a long term decline or else one bad day, an anomaly to be ignored. Sadly for Monaghan supporters, this column suspects it could be the former. The Farney men have been one of the most competitive and consistent counties in terms of punching above their weight in the last few years but a lot of that was down to Tommy Freeman’s incisive play up front and while Conor McManus has stepped up to a certain degree, some very average footballers have seen significant playing time under Seamus McEneaney. Their attitude to the game means that they won’t slip too far but if we were to predict one championship upset now, Antrim vs Monaghan in Clones in the first round of the Ulster championship would be our first choice.

12. Wexford (14 – Slight improvement)

After a couple of years of stagnation, Wexford finally found their rhythm in 2011 and were very unlucky both in terms of missing out on promotion and in losing out to Limerick in the fourth round of the qualifiers. Indeed Kerry were probably delighted to see Limerick trip up Wexford because the Slaneysiders could have created a much more interesting All Ireland quarter final if they had advanced to meet the Kingdom. They have an experienced squad that physically are a lot more powerful than they’ve been given credit for and by far they look like the most realistic contender for a Leinster title outside of the big two.

11. Galway (10 – improvement)

If you were to design a scenario where a county should be poised to make huge gains in 2012, you’d struggle to create anything more ideal than the situation out west. You have a very strong club championship, a highly talented bunch of young footballers waiting in the wings, a local manager who has earned respect with his achievements and a group of senior players that must be eager to start accumulating the medals that their talent warrants. The problem is that many of these conditions have been in place previously. Time will tell if Alan Mulholland can unlock the world of potential that lies in Galway football, but if he can’t manage it, there’s little hope for anyone.

10. Armagh (12 – No change)

The depth in Armagh football is not as much of a strength as many outside the county believe, but they have some fine individual talents and players like Aaron Kernan are incredibly good role models for the younger players that are coming in. One or two injuries tend to hit the county very hard but they are not as far off the pace as all that. If Jamie Clarke starts replicating his club form in the Ulster Championship, they could be real dark horses to take provincial honours.

9. Derry (9 – Slight improvement)

Last year was a glorious chance for an Ulster title that went astray and one wonders quite how many such chances will come their way. If we were projecting well into the future we’d struggle to be optimistic for the Derry men but in the short term, 2012 has to be a big year for the county. Injury permitting both Paddy and Eoghan Bradley will be available to manager John Brennan and if he can get the two Glenullin brothers working well within the framework of the team, he’ll have a unit capable of a lot of success.

So, hot on the heels after our initial look at the newly formed betting market for Division 1 of the National Football League, let’s step down the order and take our first look at division two and the counties hoping to earn a shot at the big guns in 2013. Traditionally the second and third tier contests are the most competitive, however 2010 was a little different in that Antrim, Sligo and Meath were very much cut adrift at the bottom, playing noticeably poorer than the other five teams in the division two race. Meath were the county who managed to escape making the drop out of that trio and they will enjoy plenty of local derbies next year with games to come against Kildare, Westmeath, Louth and Monaghan, home county of manager Seamus McEnaney.

At the other end of the table last year it was Laois and Donegal who secured promotion, meaning that league heavyweights Kildare, Derry and Tyrone must spend another year at this level. Boylesports and Ladbrokes both make Tyrone and Kildare joint favourites at 3/1 each, while Hills and Powers both side with the Ulster men at 5/2 and go 7/2 Kildare. Despite the plethora of retirements out of the Tyrone squad that we’ve seen over the last few months, a quick look at the fixture list illustrates why Powers and Hills might be the ones with the right idea here.

Tyrone are down for four home games while Kildare have only three, but in fact this advantage is even more skewed since one of Kildare’s home games is their first round fixture against Tyrone, which has been moved to neutral Croke Park. Kieran McGeeney is likely to spend the earlier part of the season putting his squad through intense physical preparation and they won’t be looking to peak too early, while Mickey Harte is very keen on competing against the best teams in the league and would relish the opportunity to get back up into the top flight. It’s not that his relatively fresh squad will be spared tough training, but he’ll still be chasing every league point on offer. If they can get a result against Kildare in the first round they’ll be hard stopped, while even if they don’t, they’ll have four home games and a trip to Louth still to come, five games where they’ll be favoured to win.

Meath’s away form in the league is too shocking to trust, while Louth and Westmeath simply don’t have the personnel to win five games in this company. Westmeath did play division one football only a couple of years ago however they were badly exposed at that level and while they deserved their promotion from division three last year, neither they nor Louth could argue that they were significantly better than any of the other teams in what was a ridiculously evenly matched division.

The wild card here is Galway. The Galway footballers are beginning to mimic their hurlers in that they’ve enjoyed plenty of underage success, they have a thriving club scene that would rival any county in Ireland, and yet they’ve flattered to deceive when it comes to championship football. This columnist has shown faith in them a few times only to be severely punished for doing so, however lloking at all the factors, we’d still be slow to oppose them next year. Whether that’s a fair opinion or failing to learn from our mistakes remains to be seen. The appointment of Alan Mulholland is a nice change of pace after two years of different outside managers and they certainly can’t argue with a schedule that gave them four home games and brings their three main rivals in the betting – Tyrone, Kildare and Meath – west of the Shannon to either Tuam or Pearse Stadium.

Memories of previous bad bets will be a tough barrier for this columnist to overcome before we recommend them again, however they are well worth watching with interest in preseason competition.

Monaghan and Derry were also only given three home games, but the Oak Leaf men won’t be too worried about making the short spin down the A505 towards Healy Park and they’ll also be confident that if they put themselves in a position where they need a result in Mullingar in the last round to secure promotion, that’s well within their grasp. Paddy Power are biggest at 7/1 Derry and they will surely see plenty of interest in a county that has played some of their best football in the league in recent years. Here at Starbets we’d like to be a lot more certain of how close to full strength they’ll be before getting stuck in, but it’s the kind of price that is well worth putting in the “maybe” column, to be re-examined in January.

The four senior games may be capturing the national attention and the vast majority of the GAA column inches this week, but with three long odds on favourites and Kildare also expected to win (by this column at least!) punters searching for a closely contested tie will have to look instead to the minor ranks and the four upcoming All Ireland quarter finals.

The headline fixture is the meeting of Dublin and Cork in O’Moore Park on Monday, and it’s fair to say that all previews of this game will focus on the same thing – that this Dublin team are flying under Dessie Farrell, and that they should win well.

They may do, but if Cork have Conor Dorman back to fill their full back berth, the young Rebels will be a much better team than the side that lost so tamely to Tipperary in the Munster final. Cork spent far too much time in that Munster decider chopping and changing their alignment in their back line and against a competent team like Tipperary, that was unforgivable. Dorman faces a huge task taking on the wonderfully talented Ciarán Kilkenny, however if he can curtail the young dual star, Cork will have gone a long way towards securing a win here.

Dublin are probably the best team left in this championship, but people forget that these are teenagers, who are invariably prone to bad days. 4/11 is too short to consider a bet on the Dubs against a Cork side that are capable of an upset.

The other Leinster vs Munster clash sees Tipperary taking on Meath and after putting both Cork and Kerry to the sword, despite trailing Kerry by ten points early in the game, this Tipperary team have more than proved their worth. Meath limped through to a Leinster Final largely due to landing on what was by far the easier side of the draw within their province, and they look to be comfortably the weakest side still in the competition. They should have no answer to TJ Ryan, who is one of the most promising talents in the entire competition, and if Ladbrokes release a handicap by Monday, it would be well worth backing Tipperary to cover.

The meeting of Cavan and Galway is one of the trickiest games to call, simply because Galway underachieved so spectacularly in the Connacht final. Word out west is that this team is very fast and fluid and they were simply unable to get going in the miserable conditions that prevailed on Connacht Final day, however the absence of any notable scalps so far this year is a worry. Some wonderful footballers from St Jarlaths have a lot to offer the teenage Tribesmen, but Cavan probably should be slight favourites based on a great performance in the Ulster final and a wonderful result against a hotly fancied Tyrone team in the Ulster semi-final.

The best value bet of the week looks to be Roscommon minors, 8/11 to overcome Armagh in Croke Park on Saturday afternoon. Ross Shannon has moulded a wonderful group of footballers in Roscommon this year and more than a few pundits within the county feel that this group is at least as good as the All Ireland winning team of 2006.

They’ve got plenty of size and power, but they still play a fast and effective style of football that should prosper in the open spaces of Croke Park. This Roscommon team have actually played in Croke Park already this year and that experience will stand to them, however more than any other factor, it’s simply hard to ascertain why Armagh are so highly rated. They accounted for Down in the Ulster semi-final and since big things were expected of Down this year, that result saw them rocket up the betting – however they failed to score for the entire second half of the Ulster Final and don’t look potent up front.

Roscommon just look to be a good cut above and at 8/11, they represent the best value bet of the eight teams playing this weekend.

The football qualifiers continue to come think and fast, with the eight counties in action this weekend beginning to realise that there could very soon be some light at the end of the tunnel. Already half the participating teams have departed the race for the Sam Maguire Cup, and one more victory will leave any of those remaining, who recently felt like their dreams were dashed, tantalisingly close to Croke Park. For some, it’s still hard to imagine them playing in the last eight of the All Ireland championship, but for others, it’s hard to see them denied.

Down vs Antrim

For long spells of last weekend’s match in Newry, Down struggled to gain real supremacy over Leitrim and they even looked like they could have been in danger of losing the match at times. That they still won by eight points is an indication of the class that there is in the red and black jerseys, while in Casement Park Antrim were extremely fortunate to come through against Carlow – or indeed Carlow were extremely unfortunate, from the point of view of this column, which recommended them at 5/1.

The local derby element will come into play to a certain extent, but even allowing for this, Antrim look overmatched here. Liam Bradley is unlikely to start without Paddy Cunningham this week but even if Cunningham plays and plays well, there simply aren’t enough free scorers in that Antrim forward line. Down should relish the big pitch in Casement Park and after two warnings now, they should be on their toes. 10/11 about Down minus four is a decent bet, but Ladbrokes are also offering 7/4 about Down to score over 1.5 goals. In ten league and championship games this year, only Meath have failed to find the net against the Saffrons and with Down’s attacking talent, raising two green flags is a very realistic prospect.

Wicklow vs Armagh

Hands up time here – this column definitely did not see that coming. Wicklow (and indeed the bookmakers, who would have cheered the demise of countless multiple bets) were blessed that Seán Furlong’s normal time goal was allowed after a questionable amount of steps, while his extra time strike also came after dubious handpass, but even so Armagh will be very worried at the way that Leighton Glynn’s movement and energy really unsettled their full back line, and also how James Stafford and Rory Finn lorded matters at midfield. Their return to Aughrim is a huge boost for Wicklow, but the value of that ground can sometimes be overstated. A field of grass is simply a field of grass and while Aughrim is not the most easily accessible village in Ireland, their venue remains a good open pitch where footballers should thrive.

Given that Armagh have been forewarned now and that Paddy O’Rourke is likely to do a lot better tactically this week, we’ll take the risk of compounding our error by suggesting Armagh minus two points as the best bet.

Limerick vs Waterford

Limerick fully deserved their win over Offaly in the Gaelic Grounds, but as we warned in this column, if Offaly got dragged into a battle, they were always going to come off second best. They needed to get in front and to force Limerick to come out and chase the game, a strategy that went out the window when Ian Ryan and Seamus O’Carroll struck for early goals.

Limerick’s lack of fielding ability will come back to haunt them some other time, but they might still have enough to get through Waterford. However scorelines of 1-17 and 3-13 are very out of character for these teams and bearing in mind how well both sides know each other after playing each other competitively four times in the last 18 months, not to mention a challenge match a fortnight ago, and a low scoring tie could be in prospect. Take under 30.5 points at even money.

Kildare vs Meath

Kildare’s ridiculously good record in the qualifiers continued last week with a crushing victory over Laois, while Meath proved once again that having big names in your forward line is no guarantee of getting plenty of scores. They limped over the line against Galway and their inability to kick points continues to hold them back.

These two sides are operating on completely different levels right now and there is simply no reason why Páirc Tailteann, tradition, or any other factor will compensate for that. Kildare’s very game is built on intensity and they do not know any other way to play – they can win this game and win it well. 1/2 about Kildare on the match betting market is a great odds on bet, but those looking for a big price should take Kildare to win by 7-9 pts at 6/1, and possibly even the 12/1 about a 10-12pt win.

Longford vs Tyrone

Longford might not be a big name in terms of the race for the All Ireland senior football championship, but rest assured Tyrone did not want this fixture at all and a one point win would be readily seized by any Tyrone supporter if it was offered to them right now.

Of course Tyrone have the better players and many people felt that they were the better team in their Ulster semi-final against Donegal. However this time last year they faced an Ulster semi-final against Down, and the contrast between the two games is stark. Against Down, Tyrone got off to a bad start but slowly and inexorably took control of the fixture, suffocating the life out of their opponents. Against Donegal they were the beneficiaries of the good start and with Donegal unable to play free flowing attacking football simply by nature of the way they were lined out, they should have had enough about themselves to close out a three or four point win. Instead they got drawn into a dogfight and came off second best against the younger, hungrier dog.

Now they face a trip to Pearse Park, with Longford in flying form after a big win over their Cavan neighbours, and the whole squad moving freely under Glen Ryan. Seán McCormack has provided a nice alternative threat to Brian Kavanagh in the Longford full forward line, their defence is incredibly tenacious and hugely under-rated, and at home they will fear no-one.

Tyrone still have plenty of know-how and should find a way to win, but they don’t look to have the firepower to blow Longford away. Ladbrokes are standing out in the marketplace with 11/10 about Longford plus four and if they’ve made the effort to draw in money, it seems rude not to respond with a moderate bet.

Armagh vs Wicklow

The national consensus on this fixture is that if it were played in Aughrim, Wicklow would have a real chance. They wouldn’t. Armagh got blindsided by a wonderful Derry performance in the Ulster semi-final but it doesn’t suddenly make them a bad team, while the most significant aspect to Wicklow’s home win over Sligo was the fact that Mick O’Dwyer actually used some substitutes. He can field whoever he likes here, Armagh are operating on a different level and Wicklow’s old style football using Seánie Furlong as a target man will get them nowhere in Armagh. Money buyers could take Armagh/Armagh double result at 1/3, while another option could be 7/4 about Armagh scoring more than 1.5 goals.

Laois vs Kildare

This fixture will undoubtedly be a huge test for the character of this Kildare team as nobody could condemn them for feeling hard done by after their last outing in Croke Park. It would be easy to suggest that the last thing they needed now was a local derby against a resurgent Laois team who would be only too delighted to crush their dreams for the year, however this Kildare team is fuelled by passion, commitment and a ridiculous level of energy and drive. This fixture is actually perfect for them. When the bright lights of Croke Park seems far away, there’s nothing like the pleasure of putting one over on your near neighbours to concentrate the mind and get you through a round of the qualifers and get you a step closer to relevance.

In every championship match they’ve played this year and last, the correct betting play has been waiting until half time and then backing Kildare in running on whatever handicap or match market is available. This could be the game where Kildare finally start the match well. This will be a very well attended game in front of the TV cameras, and with the Mullaghbawn dimension to really spice things up. Kildare/Kildare double result is our recommendation, while this could also be a good time to dabble in Ladbrokes’ “Dream Start” market. 4/1 about Kildare to get the first three scores, while still seething internally at the injustice they suffered.

Meath vs Galway

When the prices for this match were first posted, yours truly raised an eyebrow. Yes Galway were disgracefully bad in their one championship outing this year, and yes, the stock of Connacht football is at an all time low. But still, 5/2 about a bad division one team beating a bad division two side? Hard to fathom.

Then the Galway team was released appeared to contain a lot of positive changes, including the return of Michael Meehan and debuts for a few very talented young footballers. Still 5/2. Then today, the Racing Post Goalpost supplement comes out, and there is a veritable chorus of opinion that Meath should win well?

Time may highlight the flaws in the judgement of your columnist, but right now, it’s hard not to feel like the small boy in the fable of the Emporor’s New Clothes. This Meath team, while heavily laden with individual talent, has done nothing this year to command this type of respect. They beat Louth well, but frankly this column would have been a lot more impressed if they had scored 2-14 than 5-8. This Meath team is not scoring points all year, and only once has scored more than 14 times. They’ve relied on goals to carry them through matches, and that’s a risky strategy.

As for Galway’s problems, well undoubtedly they exist, but too much is being made of their Connacht Semi-Final defeat to Mayo. Yes the standard of football was poor, but they were away from home playing Connacht championship, renewing one of the biggest rivalries in football, with their main attacker out injured and on a truly horrendous day for football. Yes they had a bad day, but the media reaction has been completely overdone. While several players underperformed, Tomás O’Flaharta has the luxury of being able to bring in All Ireland under-21 winners to freshen up the squad, which is a nice option to have.

Meath are probably entitled to be narrow favourites here, but 4/6 would be fair, not 4/9. Ladbrokes are joint best in the market at 5/2 about Galway and while the Tribesmen are the type of team that could decide not to bother and lose badly, if they do take to the field in Páirc Tailteann with a real drive to prove their doubters wrong, they are well capable of a win. That price is way out of line and well worth taking.

The first round of the qualifiers is a unique test for punters in that it is often a test of the ability to read minds and mindsets as much as it is a test of the ability to read footballing skill and attributes.

Most of the match ups usually lack the local rivalry element that add a little bit of heat to the encounter, and in many cases players are often more concerned about catching a flight to America, or perhaps even getting back to their clubs and getting on with domestic affairs, than they are with prolonging a county season that is often going nowhere to begin with.

Either way, here’s Off the Ground’s assessment of the eight football qualifiers taking place tomorrow.

London vs Fermanagh

This column’s honest assessment is this – it’s impossible to say what the right price is, except that 1/2 Fermanagh and 15/8 London, as Ladbrokes have chalked up, is simply not it. This was not the draw Fermanagh wanted at all, on any level. They have one of the smallest budgets on the intercounty circuit and a €20k trip to London was not what the doctor ordered at all. With London on a high, the general perception is that Fermanagh are ripe for the picking, and the money has reflected this, piling into the Exiles who were as big as 5/1 in places when the odds were first released.

If Fermanagh buy into all this, then London should be favourites. If Fermanagh travel over here determined not to become the first county to lose to London in the qualifiers and believing that there is still something to be salvaged out of this season, then they are 1/6 shots. After all London are still the same county that manage one league win over anyone other than Kilkenny every couple of years. As we said, 1/2 is not right, but ascertaining the correct odds is another matter entirely. The lot of the compiler is an unhappy one here.

Fermanagh minus three at 6/5 looks like the best bet here, given that even though their best players are at home, those that travel still have a lot of pride in the jersey and won’t lie down, and London have lost the element of surprise.

Clare vs Down

Clare have better footballers than they are often given credit for, and if they smelled blood in the water, they would be a real dangerous outsider. Unfortunately Down is simply too big a target, they needed a Cavan, Sligo, Offaly or Antrim to come to Ennis. The retirement of John Clarke, the injury to Danny Hughes, uncertainty over the defensive credentials of the half back line, all these issues still have to be addressed by James McCartan, but they won’t be solved this week. Either way, Down will win here and probably cover the spread in the process.

Louth vs Meath

Remember all that stuff in the first paragraph about how qualifiers often lack the bite due to counties meeting that have no axe to grind? Well scratch that for this one.

It’s a huge pity that this tie couldn’t take place in Louth, because this could have been a humdinger of a tie if it was played in Drogheda with supporters hanging from the rafters, baying for Royal County blood. That wasn’t possible, but even so Louth could be in with a chance here.

Much of the discussion after Kildare’s Leinster quarter final win over Meath centred on Kildare’s inability to shoot, which was fair comment but still missed the point from a Meath perspective. Meath won 50% of the primary possession in that game at least, and yet they had less than half the number of chances as Kildare.

Meath simply don’t know how to turn possession into scoring chances under Banty and a Meath team playing possession football is a round peg trying to fit into a square hole – it’s just not natural. Paddy Keenan can spoil the midfield at least, he won’t meet anyone as good as Brendan Murphy here, and while the Louth half forward line is hugely underwhelming, if Meath turn over ball the same way as they did against Kildare, then Lennon, Maguire and Rooney will get chances.

Louth being Louth, a heartbreaking defeat is always possible, so 6/5 about Louth plus two is the best play.

Offaly vs Monaghan

Even as an Offaly native, calling this one is tough. Offaly have the players to give Monaghan a tough time in Tullamore, but banking on them to be in the right mindset to do so is a risky game. The Wexford game hurt this team and management badly, and subsequent events that have accused them of being good-time-charlies can’t have gone down well either. In many counties that would lead to a backlash, but sometimes backlashes in Offaly don’t always work out how one would imagine. They often take place far away from the field of play.

Anton Sullivan is a huge loss and while the team named is certainly not that which will start, the withdrawal of John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan robs Tom Cribbin of several options so there won’t be that many surprises.

If Offaly get goals, this could be close, but they’ll need the rub of the green because they have proven that they can’t overcome any bad luck in the middle of games.

Laois vs Tipperary

The accepted wisdom regarding this fixture is that Laois were going the right way under Justin McNulty, they just overdid the defensive play and got blown away by a strong Dublin team. That’s as may be, but Tipperary played a strong Kerry team and got no luck, so it’s very early to say that they are way off the pace. Tipperary are a solid division three team, no better, no worse, while Laois are a cut above that. However the Laois half forward line is desperately short on scoring power and there remain question marks over the form of both Kingston and Tierney. Laois should win, but 1/3 with Ladbrokes is way too short. Instead, take even money about less than 28.5 points in the game. It’s hard to see either side scoring fifteen points in this game, never mind both of them.

Cavan vs Longford

It says a lot that despite all the comments directed at the problems in Leinster football, one of the weakest counties in the province is favoured to win away from home against an Ulster team who would probably be regarded as no worse than seventh in the northern province right now. This is a great fixture for the locals who share a keen rivalry but rarely get to meet on the field. Longford to win is the accepted wisdom, but it mightn’t be that simple. No bet here, there’s just too many talented forwards on that Cavan team who could hit form at any time.

Wicklow vs Sligo

What looked like a reasonable assignment for Sligo when the fixture was drawn up has grown more and more difficult as their list of absentees has extended. Johnny Davey and David Kelly are unable to return, Ken Sweeney has followed Keelan Cawley out of Ireland, Brendan Curran and Alan Costello are suspended and all in all Sligo look to have their work cut out for them. Ladbrokes appear to be of the same mind here, offering Sligo at a best price of even money, while only giving 11/10 to Wicklow backers. In a neutral venue, with both sides at full strength, Sligo would be 2/5 here – right now, Wicklow probably deserve narrow favouritism and would be the tentative call.

Antrim vs Westmeath

Two sides that were desperately poor in the first round, but the managers have taken a very different approach to this qualifier tie. Liam Bradley has picked the same Antrim side as started against Donegal, while Pat Flanagan has reverted to type with a very defensive alignment, including two wing forwards who would usually be known as defenders. The other side of this is that the selection of Denis Corroon as a wing back is an unusual one, but one that Gary Connaughton could look to target with kickouts.

The Westmeath hurlers would happily testify as to how difficult it is to play an away fixture in Belfast, so far from home, however the 13/10 makes plenty of appeal even so. Dessie Dolan and Denis Glennon is a fine inside forward pairing and while they were out-gunned against Wexford, Antrim simply don’t have the same scoring power to match them blow for blow. Another low scoring battle could be in prospect here, but we’ll give the tentative nod to the outsiders to sneak it. In fact Westmeath to win by 1-3pts would be our favourite winning margin bet of the week.

• 1With question marks hanging over both these sides (Chelsea - John......
• 2The odds are so skinny on Ireland it may be wise......
• 3Plenty to keep the Winter chill at bay. Our Monty (10/1......
• 4Newcastle's Senegalese starlets Demba Ba and Papis Demba Cisse are back......
• 5With a busy day already done Laurence McCormack examines the Man......

• Twitter
• RSS
• You Tube