For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

Perhaps the highest profile football fixture that took place last weekend was Down’s meeting with Armagh in the McKenna Cup, probably the only all-division one battle that will take place in preseason competition in 2012. What looked like a renewal of a fiercely contested local derby when it was first drawn up turned into something of a canter for Down however, as Armagh struggled to compensate for the absence of their Crossmaglen players and several other key individuals. James McCartan’s selection looked very fresh when first announced, but he had a lot of strength on the bench to call upon if required, and the value of that was clear to see when he was able to get meaningful contributions from Conor Laverty, Aidan Brannigan and of course Benny Coulter.

The question that now has to be asked, since most observers and journalists present in Newry agreed that the eight point margin was a fair reflection, is how good were Down? Alternatively, how bad were Armagh?

To put it another way – Monaghan had an eight point win over St Mary’s College, who were expected to struggle without some key players like Tyrone’s Peter Harte, but their substantial winning margin was largely the result of some very poor shooting from the teaching college students and most observers in Clones felt that a five or six point margin would have been fairer, albeit in a match that never really caught fire. So in theory at least, the gap between Down and Monaghan should be the same if not bigger than the gap between Armagh and St Mary’s – yet Armagh are  as short as 1/4 in places for their match, while Monaghan are not to be had at any price bigger than the 2/1 on offer from William Hill. It’s not unreasonable to infer that either the potential of an upset in the Morgan Atheltic Grounds is being understated, or else Down should be stronger favourites against Monaghan.

The wild card in this line of thinking however is the concern about which teams will improve most from last Sunday to next – and of course the answer here should be the county teams. The college sides have played a league campaign as a coherent panel and are a lot further in their development, while the county sides have theoretically at least, not been playing collectively for several months. Having had their first session together, they should improve immensely for that exercise, all the more when trying to integrate new players with more experienced footballers. Nonetheless the very real prospect of greatly altered teams mitigates this somewhat.

While there is a lot to like about Down, best priced at 8/13 with Boylesports – certainly we’d prefer to be backing that than taking the 2/1 about Monaghan – our gut feeling here is that Armagh really struggled to compensate for the absence of their key players and that they could be very vulnerable favourites this week. St Mary’s haven’t shown any signs over the winter of improving significantly on their performances in recent years, but they’ve still won one game out of three in this competition in each of the last three seasons. With Down currently flying, they’ll almost certainly have to beat Armagh to keep that record up for a fourth successive year and while the county men should still hold an edge, Hills, Powers and Boylesports are all 10/3 about an upset win and that price is just about big enough to justify a small interest.

McKenna Cup Round 2 Recommendation

Armagh vs St Marys: St Mary’s to win at 10/3 (Boylesports, Hills, Powers)

Continuing now with the third part in the series, detailing those counties that will be hoping to make a real breakthrough into the top tier in 2012…..

17. Roscommon (16 – Disimprovement)

Few counties better illustrate the inequity of the current provincial structure than Roscommon, who have reached the last twelve of the All Ireland race for each of the last two seasons despite failing to beat any top twenty county in league or championship along the way. That there is talent in the county cannot be questioned and that’s the only reason why they aren’t ranked even lower, but a few cracks are starting to appear that suggest that some of their brightest hopes from the 2006 minor team simply aren’t progressing as well as many supporters would have hoped. Players like Peter Domican, Senan Kilbride and Cathal Cregg would be welcome into any county team in Ireland, but there will be no handy run to the Connacht final this year and as a result it would be a huge surprise to this column if they were still playing football in August.

16. Limerick (17 – slight disimprovement)

A little bit more luck in the early part of the league would have gone a long way and by the time they found their rhythm in the summer, even without talismanic midfielder John Galvin, they looked like a dangerous force in the qualifiers. The draw was extremely kind to them and not many teams would get to reach an All Ireland quarter final beating only division three sides, but it’s hard to be too critical of a team that only lost to Kerry in the championship. If they can continue to create space for what is a very potent forward line they’ll do well, but their league match against Fermanagh will be particularly revealing as no side under Canavan is likely to allow a lot of space to their direct opponents. Expect Fermanagh to write the script for how to neutralise Limerick in 2012.

15. Laois (15 – no change)

Based on league form, Laois deserve to be ranked much higher than this, but in the championship they’ve made little or no impression for some years now. Manager Justin McNulty looked like he was achieving some good things in the county but the poor state of their domestic championship is a concern and many of their younger prospects aren’t progressing as well as they should. They will almost certainly get relegated from division one but if they can learn from playing at that standard, they might just have enough to come through a treacherous first round championship tie against Longford.

14. Meath (11 – Slight disimprovement)

The wisdom in picking a non-Meath manager to take charge of the Royal County for the first time is being questioned at the moment with Seamus McEnaney yet to win over the footballing public in Meath. Up front the county has no problems with a string of capable attacking players but the absence of Nigel Crawford will be keenly felt this year while all across the midfield and half back line there are concerns. Their reputation is masking quite how many problems there are in Meath football at the moment.

13. Monaghan (13 – disimprovement)

Their shocking qualifier performance in Tullamore last year was either the portent of the start of a long term decline or else one bad day, an anomaly to be ignored. Sadly for Monaghan supporters, this column suspects it could be the former. The Farney men have been one of the most competitive and consistent counties in terms of punching above their weight in the last few years but a lot of that was down to Tommy Freeman’s incisive play up front and while Conor McManus has stepped up to a certain degree, some very average footballers have seen significant playing time under Seamus McEneaney. Their attitude to the game means that they won’t slip too far but if we were to predict one championship upset now, Antrim vs Monaghan in Clones in the first round of the Ulster championship would be our first choice.

12. Wexford (14 – Slight improvement)

After a couple of years of stagnation, Wexford finally found their rhythm in 2011 and were very unlucky both in terms of missing out on promotion and in losing out to Limerick in the fourth round of the qualifiers. Indeed Kerry were probably delighted to see Limerick trip up Wexford because the Slaneysiders could have created a much more interesting All Ireland quarter final if they had advanced to meet the Kingdom. They have an experienced squad that physically are a lot more powerful than they’ve been given credit for and by far they look like the most realistic contender for a Leinster title outside of the big two.

11. Galway (10 – improvement)

If you were to design a scenario where a county should be poised to make huge gains in 2012, you’d struggle to create anything more ideal than the situation out west. You have a very strong club championship, a highly talented bunch of young footballers waiting in the wings, a local manager who has earned respect with his achievements and a group of senior players that must be eager to start accumulating the medals that their talent warrants. The problem is that many of these conditions have been in place previously. Time will tell if Alan Mulholland can unlock the world of potential that lies in Galway football, but if he can’t manage it, there’s little hope for anyone.

10. Armagh (12 – No change)

The depth in Armagh football is not as much of a strength as many outside the county believe, but they have some fine individual talents and players like Aaron Kernan are incredibly good role models for the younger players that are coming in. One or two injuries tend to hit the county very hard but they are not as far off the pace as all that. If Jamie Clarke starts replicating his club form in the Ulster Championship, they could be real dark horses to take provincial honours.

9. Derry (9 – Slight improvement)

Last year was a glorious chance for an Ulster title that went astray and one wonders quite how many such chances will come their way. If we were projecting well into the future we’d struggle to be optimistic for the Derry men but in the short term, 2012 has to be a big year for the county. Injury permitting both Paddy and Eoghan Bradley will be available to manager John Brennan and if he can get the two Glenullin brothers working well within the framework of the team, he’ll have a unit capable of a lot of success.

So, hot on the heels after our initial look at the newly formed betting market for Division 1 of the National Football League, let’s step down the order and take our first look at division two and the counties hoping to earn a shot at the big guns in 2013. Traditionally the second and third tier contests are the most competitive, however 2010 was a little different in that Antrim, Sligo and Meath were very much cut adrift at the bottom, playing noticeably poorer than the other five teams in the division two race. Meath were the county who managed to escape making the drop out of that trio and they will enjoy plenty of local derbies next year with games to come against Kildare, Westmeath, Louth and Monaghan, home county of manager Seamus McEnaney.

At the other end of the table last year it was Laois and Donegal who secured promotion, meaning that league heavyweights Kildare, Derry and Tyrone must spend another year at this level. Boylesports and Ladbrokes both make Tyrone and Kildare joint favourites at 3/1 each, while Hills and Powers both side with the Ulster men at 5/2 and go 7/2 Kildare. Despite the plethora of retirements out of the Tyrone squad that we’ve seen over the last few months, a quick look at the fixture list illustrates why Powers and Hills might be the ones with the right idea here.

Tyrone are down for four home games while Kildare have only three, but in fact this advantage is even more skewed since one of Kildare’s home games is their first round fixture against Tyrone, which has been moved to neutral Croke Park. Kieran McGeeney is likely to spend the earlier part of the season putting his squad through intense physical preparation and they won’t be looking to peak too early, while Mickey Harte is very keen on competing against the best teams in the league and would relish the opportunity to get back up into the top flight. It’s not that his relatively fresh squad will be spared tough training, but he’ll still be chasing every league point on offer. If they can get a result against Kildare in the first round they’ll be hard stopped, while even if they don’t, they’ll have four home games and a trip to Louth still to come, five games where they’ll be favoured to win.

Meath’s away form in the league is too shocking to trust, while Louth and Westmeath simply don’t have the personnel to win five games in this company. Westmeath did play division one football only a couple of years ago however they were badly exposed at that level and while they deserved their promotion from division three last year, neither they nor Louth could argue that they were significantly better than any of the other teams in what was a ridiculously evenly matched division.

The wild card here is Galway. The Galway footballers are beginning to mimic their hurlers in that they’ve enjoyed plenty of underage success, they have a thriving club scene that would rival any county in Ireland, and yet they’ve flattered to deceive when it comes to championship football. This columnist has shown faith in them a few times only to be severely punished for doing so, however lloking at all the factors, we’d still be slow to oppose them next year. Whether that’s a fair opinion or failing to learn from our mistakes remains to be seen. The appointment of Alan Mulholland is a nice change of pace after two years of different outside managers and they certainly can’t argue with a schedule that gave them four home games and brings their three main rivals in the betting – Tyrone, Kildare and Meath – west of the Shannon to either Tuam or Pearse Stadium.

Memories of previous bad bets will be a tough barrier for this columnist to overcome before we recommend them again, however they are well worth watching with interest in preseason competition.

Monaghan and Derry were also only given three home games, but the Oak Leaf men won’t be too worried about making the short spin down the A505 towards Healy Park and they’ll also be confident that if they put themselves in a position where they need a result in Mullingar in the last round to secure promotion, that’s well within their grasp. Paddy Power are biggest at 7/1 Derry and they will surely see plenty of interest in a county that has played some of their best football in the league in recent years. Here at Starbets we’d like to be a lot more certain of how close to full strength they’ll be before getting stuck in, but it’s the kind of price that is well worth putting in the “maybe” column, to be re-examined in January.

In the tricky quest to find some value winners in the first round of the football qualifiers you may find some worth in noting the market movers. Here I’ll talk you through our thinking on some of the price changes made in the run up to today’s games.

A question I’m often asked is “How much money does it take to change a price?” To ask the question is to misunderstand the dynamic of the market. As John Maynard Keynes retorted when challenged about his shift in position on monetary policy: “When the facts change, I change my mind.”

In the case of the Sligo v Wicklow game the changing fact is that Sligo travel to Wicklow missing a significant number of players who would be expected to deliver the top level of performance that the county team is capable of. In the absence of these players our original price of 11/8 against a Wicklow victory was overly generous, so without seeing any significant amount of money for Mick O’Dwyer’s side we took the measure to reassess the game and move Wicklow in to 11/10.

Our price of even money Sligo is the best in the industry today. It’s not so much that we’re ‘out to get them’ but an under-strength side having been beaten by Leitrim then having to travel the breadth of the country for a first round qualifier tie look a selection that we’d struggle to lay at odds-on.

Another side that we are now stand-out against is Offaly. Having suffered a brutal beating against a county that they historically wouldn’t feel inferior to when Wexford wiped the floor with them, they were then dragged in to the controversy surrounding their county’s hurling counterparts when a high profile pundit – and a platoon of internet gossipers – questioned how they ‘refuelled’ between games. John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan quit the panel, and of course Offaly would not be renowned for blazing a trail through the qualifiers.

Even with a home draw things are stacking against Tom Cribben’s side. Monaghan on the other hand were nobly defeated by Tyrone, perhaps exceeding expectations as a new-look championship side took the game to the Ulster champions. A hard luck story in Dick Clerkin’s sending off presents an opportunity to ponder what might have been; they seem to be a unified and focussed panel that expects to improve through the qualifiers. We have the Ulster side in to 4/11 with Offaly now available at 3/1.

One selection that has been moved by market forces rather than team news is Down on the handicap against Clare.

We went up with a six point line on this game, Down at 10/11. It didn’t last so long. We saw interest from some customers whose view we respect and it became apparent that we were going to end up in an extreme position if we didn’t alter the prices. We cut Down to 4/5 and saw yet more money, so we went 4/6 and also opened up a new line at 7 points for customers who wanted odds closer to even money on their handicap pick.

Teams like Clare can be difficult to assess. They don’t get a lot of airtime or a lot of column inches. Their team news or reports on camp morale tends not to displace any of the headlines on the sports bulletins. What does reveal everything we need to know about Clare however is the weight of money opposing them. The punters penny is the key indicator, and we haven’t seen many notes cross the counter accompanying a docket with Clare +6 or Clare +7 on it.

Punt On!

The first round of the qualifiers is a unique test for punters in that it is often a test of the ability to read minds and mindsets as much as it is a test of the ability to read footballing skill and attributes.

Most of the match ups usually lack the local rivalry element that add a little bit of heat to the encounter, and in many cases players are often more concerned about catching a flight to America, or perhaps even getting back to their clubs and getting on with domestic affairs, than they are with prolonging a county season that is often going nowhere to begin with.

Either way, here’s Off the Ground’s assessment of the eight football qualifiers taking place tomorrow.

London vs Fermanagh

This column’s honest assessment is this – it’s impossible to say what the right price is, except that 1/2 Fermanagh and 15/8 London, as Ladbrokes have chalked up, is simply not it. This was not the draw Fermanagh wanted at all, on any level. They have one of the smallest budgets on the intercounty circuit and a €20k trip to London was not what the doctor ordered at all. With London on a high, the general perception is that Fermanagh are ripe for the picking, and the money has reflected this, piling into the Exiles who were as big as 5/1 in places when the odds were first released.

If Fermanagh buy into all this, then London should be favourites. If Fermanagh travel over here determined not to become the first county to lose to London in the qualifiers and believing that there is still something to be salvaged out of this season, then they are 1/6 shots. After all London are still the same county that manage one league win over anyone other than Kilkenny every couple of years. As we said, 1/2 is not right, but ascertaining the correct odds is another matter entirely. The lot of the compiler is an unhappy one here.

Fermanagh minus three at 6/5 looks like the best bet here, given that even though their best players are at home, those that travel still have a lot of pride in the jersey and won’t lie down, and London have lost the element of surprise.

Clare vs Down

Clare have better footballers than they are often given credit for, and if they smelled blood in the water, they would be a real dangerous outsider. Unfortunately Down is simply too big a target, they needed a Cavan, Sligo, Offaly or Antrim to come to Ennis. The retirement of John Clarke, the injury to Danny Hughes, uncertainty over the defensive credentials of the half back line, all these issues still have to be addressed by James McCartan, but they won’t be solved this week. Either way, Down will win here and probably cover the spread in the process.

Louth vs Meath

Remember all that stuff in the first paragraph about how qualifiers often lack the bite due to counties meeting that have no axe to grind? Well scratch that for this one.

It’s a huge pity that this tie couldn’t take place in Louth, because this could have been a humdinger of a tie if it was played in Drogheda with supporters hanging from the rafters, baying for Royal County blood. That wasn’t possible, but even so Louth could be in with a chance here.

Much of the discussion after Kildare’s Leinster quarter final win over Meath centred on Kildare’s inability to shoot, which was fair comment but still missed the point from a Meath perspective. Meath won 50% of the primary possession in that game at least, and yet they had less than half the number of chances as Kildare.

Meath simply don’t know how to turn possession into scoring chances under Banty and a Meath team playing possession football is a round peg trying to fit into a square hole – it’s just not natural. Paddy Keenan can spoil the midfield at least, he won’t meet anyone as good as Brendan Murphy here, and while the Louth half forward line is hugely underwhelming, if Meath turn over ball the same way as they did against Kildare, then Lennon, Maguire and Rooney will get chances.

Louth being Louth, a heartbreaking defeat is always possible, so 6/5 about Louth plus two is the best play.

Offaly vs Monaghan

Even as an Offaly native, calling this one is tough. Offaly have the players to give Monaghan a tough time in Tullamore, but banking on them to be in the right mindset to do so is a risky game. The Wexford game hurt this team and management badly, and subsequent events that have accused them of being good-time-charlies can’t have gone down well either. In many counties that would lead to a backlash, but sometimes backlashes in Offaly don’t always work out how one would imagine. They often take place far away from the field of play.

Anton Sullivan is a huge loss and while the team named is certainly not that which will start, the withdrawal of John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan robs Tom Cribbin of several options so there won’t be that many surprises.

If Offaly get goals, this could be close, but they’ll need the rub of the green because they have proven that they can’t overcome any bad luck in the middle of games.

Laois vs Tipperary

The accepted wisdom regarding this fixture is that Laois were going the right way under Justin McNulty, they just overdid the defensive play and got blown away by a strong Dublin team. That’s as may be, but Tipperary played a strong Kerry team and got no luck, so it’s very early to say that they are way off the pace. Tipperary are a solid division three team, no better, no worse, while Laois are a cut above that. However the Laois half forward line is desperately short on scoring power and there remain question marks over the form of both Kingston and Tierney. Laois should win, but 1/3 with Ladbrokes is way too short. Instead, take even money about less than 28.5 points in the game. It’s hard to see either side scoring fifteen points in this game, never mind both of them.

Cavan vs Longford

It says a lot that despite all the comments directed at the problems in Leinster football, one of the weakest counties in the province is favoured to win away from home against an Ulster team who would probably be regarded as no worse than seventh in the northern province right now. This is a great fixture for the locals who share a keen rivalry but rarely get to meet on the field. Longford to win is the accepted wisdom, but it mightn’t be that simple. No bet here, there’s just too many talented forwards on that Cavan team who could hit form at any time.

Wicklow vs Sligo

What looked like a reasonable assignment for Sligo when the fixture was drawn up has grown more and more difficult as their list of absentees has extended. Johnny Davey and David Kelly are unable to return, Ken Sweeney has followed Keelan Cawley out of Ireland, Brendan Curran and Alan Costello are suspended and all in all Sligo look to have their work cut out for them. Ladbrokes appear to be of the same mind here, offering Sligo at a best price of even money, while only giving 11/10 to Wicklow backers. In a neutral venue, with both sides at full strength, Sligo would be 2/5 here – right now, Wicklow probably deserve narrow favouritism and would be the tentative call.

Antrim vs Westmeath

Two sides that were desperately poor in the first round, but the managers have taken a very different approach to this qualifier tie. Liam Bradley has picked the same Antrim side as started against Donegal, while Pat Flanagan has reverted to type with a very defensive alignment, including two wing forwards who would usually be known as defenders. The other side of this is that the selection of Denis Corroon as a wing back is an unusual one, but one that Gary Connaughton could look to target with kickouts.

The Westmeath hurlers would happily testify as to how difficult it is to play an away fixture in Belfast, so far from home, however the 13/10 makes plenty of appeal even so. Dessie Dolan and Denis Glennon is a fine inside forward pairing and while they were out-gunned against Wexford, Antrim simply don’t have the same scoring power to match them blow for blow. Another low scoring battle could be in prospect here, but we’ll give the tentative nod to the outsiders to sneak it. In fact Westmeath to win by 1-3pts would be our favourite winning margin bet of the week.

Plenty of interesting games this weekend. Tyrone and Monaghan make their summer bow at Healy Park in a repeat of last year’s Ulster Final. Monaghan came in to that game with high hopes on the back of high scoring wins over Fermanagh and Armagh. They were extremely well supported in the market, no bigger than 5/4 when David Coldrick threw-in at Clones.

What followed was an enormous disappointment to the Farney as they were comfortably beaten while registering a pitifully low tally of 0-7. What was set to be the glory day of Banty McEneaney’s reign at Monaghan ended in dejection. A four point defeat to Kildare six days later ended Monaghan’s summer. And with the eventual departure of their manager, a memorable chapter in Monaghan football met a dissonant cadence.

It hasn’t been easy picking up the pieces since. Damien Freeman retired, Tommy Freeman emigrated, as did Rory Woods. Kieran Hughes picked up a long term injury, while the queue out the treatment room door for less serious twinges, tweaks and strains does little to boost confidence.

A team that in optimal condition was 10 points off Tyrone last summer now faces them with what can at best be called serious gaps in personnel. 5/4 to beat Tyrone last year, 11/4 this year is perhaps the most telling indicator of how this transitional Monaghan team ranks in the minds of the betting industry and its ever knowledgeable clients.

What of Tyrone? Ulster champions in three of the last four years, and All-Ireland winners the other, yet always the doubts that battle-weariness has infested Mickey Harte’s side. They may have been on the road longer than Forrest Gump, but they still have enough in them to win this home fixture and cover the 3 point spread at 10/11.

While his former troops put Tyrone to the test, Banty’s new platoon Meath get their Leinster campaign underway against Kildare at Croke Park. We make Kildare 4/7 favourites, offer 15/2 the draw and its 7/4 Meath. Its very hard to know what to expect from Meath, and just as Seamus McEneaney stunned the GAA world by putting Darren Hughes in goal last season, he has done it again by calling the seemingly retired Graham Geraghty in to the panel. Whether its the act of a genius or a madman only simplistic hindsight will tell, but there is no doubt that it is a poor reflection on the current crop of Meath’s forwards that such a measure was taken.

Kildare have had an unfair share of serious knee injuries, and reshuffled in their win over Wicklow to the extent that one of the game’s great forwards John Doyle was drafted in to midfield. There’s still plenty of attacking threat in the Kildare team; Alan Smith and James Kavanagh will test any defence. The problem with Kildare is their lack of efficiency in converting chances to scores. They will either become less profligate or pay dearly for it this season.

Punt On!

The start of the GAA championships on Irish soil (or indeed on soil of any kind) is upon us, with Antrim’s trip to Donegal getting the Ulster football championship underway on Sunday, while Laois play Antrim’s hurlers in the first Leinster hurling championship tie of the year on Saturday evening in O’Moore Park.

This week, with that in mind, we’ll have a run through all the provinces from an antepost betting perspective and see if we can’t at least draw a line through a few of the counties in a bid to isolate where the real value lies.

Since it’s Ulster football getting things underway this week, up north is as good a place as any to start with our football preview blogs. Tyrone are clear favourites and Ladbrokes have them at 2/1, and while this column believes that this Tyrone team is running out of road, it’s still difficult to oppose them in Ulster this year.

Monaghan were somewhat unlucky to suffer relegation from division one this season as they played quite competitively throughout, however Tyrone have something of an Indian sign over Monaghan in the championship in recent years, beating them three times out of three meetings since 2005.

Eamonn McEnaney unearthed some good young talent during the league campaign but they are still hugely reliant on a few key performers that are edging past their best. Their display against Kildare in last year’s fourth round qualifier illustrated just how much energy they had sunk into their Ulster championship campaign and while the change of management will have freshened things up somewhat, they still could struggle to find enough in the tank to get past Tyrone.  Tyrone in turn are stumbling in their attempts to find the higher gears, but they can scrape through to an Ulster final on memory alone and once they reach that stage, it’s well worth having them covered.

This weekend Donegal host Antrim and while Off the Ground suspects that there is real upset potential here, certainly at the odds of 9/2 being offered by Ladbrokes at the moment, only Donegal have any real long term potential out of this pairing. Their inside forward pairing of Michael Murphy and Colm McFadden is very difficult to stop simply because they can score with high or low ball in, while Jimmy McGuinness has developed an excellent work ethic throughout the rest of the team.

It’s been four years now since Donegal won an Ulster championship match despite getting plenty of home draws in that time so there will be a degree of mental fragility that still has to be worked out of the system. It’s for that reason that we’d suggest leaving the 13/2 for now and waiting until the semi final stages, when the banana skins have been avoided and they face into a game with Tyrone. They will still be no shorter than 4/1 or 9/2 at that stage, and it will make more sense to punt them there if at all. In honesty, four Ulster championship games can prove too much and it probably will be a battle too far for either of these teams.

The darkest of dark horses is Cavan, waiting in the wings for the winner of the match in Ballybofey. 28/1 is on offer about the Breffni men bridging a 14 year gap since their last Anglo Celt Cup and they’re not the kind of team that we like to oppose too readily. They have been consistent underachievers relative to their talent for some years now, and someday soon a manager will get that out of them and they will cause real problems for good teams.

It remains to be seen if Val Andrews is the man to do this but he has settled down their defensive structure, and up front Cavan possess some really top class forwards. They’ll take plenty of encouragement from their under-21 footballers who performed so well and right now this is a county that should be kept on side, simply based on the price.

On the other side of the draw, Fermanagh have no chance and not if the 33/1 was trebled would we suggest a bet on them. They cannot win an Anglo-Celt Cup with the kind of preparation that they’ve had this year.

Derry, their first round opponents, are another matter entirely however. They’ve completely slipped under the radar this year but with the exception of a horror show performance at home to Laois, they actually enjoyed a decent league campaign. Paddy and Eoghan Bradley are back in harness and playing well and while they don’t have as much depth as they might like, they can beat anyone in this province.

The problem here is the price. At 5/1, they are just too short to provide any real value. Even if we say that they are 1/10 to get through Fermanagh, that still makes them no bigger than 5/4 in each of the semi final and final – and that’s too short. Contenders, but no value.

Finally we have the big clash between Down and Armagh at the newly revamped Athletic Grounds, and this match features the best football team in Ulster and the value bet to win out – but those two teams aren’t the same.

Down are the best footballing side in the province and even though they can struggle to win possession around the middle, they have a craft and innovation about their play in the half forward line that is unmatched anywhere north of Listowel. Benny Coulter has become all the more threatening now that Martin Clarke has become the main man in the attack, while much like the Clare hurlers of the 1990′s, they have a supporting cast of forwards that are inconsistent, but yet on any given day each of Ronan Murtagh, Mark Poland, Ronan Sexton and Danny Hughes are capable of having a big day. If it’s not one, it’s another.

The problem is that as a lightweight side, by Ulster measures anyway, they can be muscled out of games and Armagh are just the kind of side to do that. It should not be forgotten here that amidst all the talk of how Ulster is the most open province in Ireland, it has been thirteen years since anyone other than Armagh or Tyrone won the title. These two counties know how to win and while they can sometimes be found out in the qualifiers, they have the resilience to dig out big results in tight provincial games. Gareth Swift is an All Star waiting to happen and with home advantage, Armagh can overcome Down and progress deep into this championship.

Overall, the best policy here is to place 50% of your total stake on Armagh at 8/1, 10% on Cavan just to be on the safe side, and 40% on Tyrone at 2/1 to ensure that you are covered in the event of one last big push from Mickey Harte’s men.

Potential betting landmines lie in wait for those seeking a profit on the final day of the National football leagues. Trying to grasp the thoughts of certain managers in their approach to this weekend’s match is anyone’s guess. Of course they want to finish on a high, but the thoughts of losing a star player in a dead rubber game is the last thing they want and it would be no surprise to see some fringe players getting a run. Maybe it’s best sticking with teams with something to play for. James Horan has already stated he will give some fringe players a run-out and with Monaghan holding slim survival hopes, it’s time to back the Ulster men. The absence of some key players is a worry but I’ve been impressed by the competitiveness of Eamon McEneaney’s men. Back Monaghan to win the match at 10/11.

Kerry and Down should be a cracking encounter with plenty of scores. I expect the Kingdom to come away with the win, especially as it looks like the starting 15 is beginning to take shape. The 4/6 on offer for over 28.5 points looks a good bet considering the forwards that will be on show. I’m struggling to find value elsewhere in Division 1 with the handicaps looking just about right.

Take Cork half time/full time at 4/9 and the 4/1 on offer for Galway to beat Dublin by 1-3 points in Salthill. Pat Gillroy’s men may have one eye on the final and face a Galway side that will be playing with a bit more confidence. Division 2 looks far more competitive this week with the clash of table toppers Laois and Donegal taking place in Portlaoise. Both teams have impressed under new management but it’s the hosts that I’m siding with this week. For me they have been slightly more impressive and I’ve slight reservations about some of Donegal’s wins. Back Laois at 10/11 to beat their Ulster opponents.

Meath are still to be avoided at all costs and Tyrone look a terrific -1 at 5/6. On form this shouldn’t be close. Sligo have been tipped by many shrewd observers but I just can’t see them beating Kildare on their home patch and back the Lillywhites to come out on top by 4-6 points at 4-6 and to cover the -2 handicap at 10/11. The 4/5 on offer for Antrim to score more than 12.5 looks a good bet considering the return of Paddy Cunningham. Looking down the Leagues Wicklow are the bet of the day -3 at 10/11 while Cavan and Louth should also prevail at 4/5 and 5/6 respectively.

A worthwhile treble involves Wicklow, Cavan and Kildare valued at around 9/4. Finally it may be worthwhile finding a goalscorer bet and take a chance with Kieran Donaghy grabbing the opening goal against Down at 15/2.

Barring draws, the All Ireland under-21 championship will shed three contenders tonight, leaving just five counties in the running by Thursday morning.

From the point of view of the All Ireland race, most of the focus will be on the Munster decider between Cork and Kerry, with the winner likely to move into odds on with only two games remaining, even allowing for Galway’s great win over Roscommon.

Ladbrokes are going 4/6 about Cork, however this writer would find it very difficult to pick a favourite between these age old Munster rivals. Both these sides have got plenty of top class talent and neither will have any fear of the opposition.

The game taking place in Páirc Uí Rinn is obviously a point in Cork’s favour but there are questions over whether or not midfielder Aidan Walsh is fully fit, while there are also legitimate fears over the security of the Cork full back line. Ciarán Sheehan, Barrry O’Driscoll and Mark Collins are three top quality forwards and this Cork attack would test a good senior defence, never mind one of the under-21 variety.

On the Kerry side, not unlike with their seniors, the real concern will be regarding the midfield sector. Edmund Walsh has played well so far this year but he still will be stepping up in class hugely against his namesake Aidan, while Thomas Ladden gets the start alongside him tomorrow night and he too has a lot to prove. Good young footballers might not be good enough in this fixture.

Overall however, on the basis that Kerry won the corresponding fixture between these sides at minor three years ago and this fixture at under-21 level last year, Kerry plus one point at 11/10 could be the better bet. Kerry are rarely underdogs for a football match at any level and more often than not they come through when odds against is chalked up about them.

In Leinster, a Longford team with proven resilience and battling quality takes on Wexford in Portlaoise and while Wexford look like a quality side, it’s hard to go against a team that beat Meath in Navan and followed that up with a great result against a good Westmeath team.

That win over Westmeath owed a lot to John Heslin’s rush of blood to the head but lesser sides wouldn’t have been able to take advantage of that opportunity and with plenty of experience from the Longford side that won the Leinster minor championship last year, there is every chance that Longford can get over the line here too and record their first ever provincial title at this grade. They have a very strong midfield and half back line and Wexford’s progress this far owes a lot to getting home advantage for the first two rounds.

Finally there is the meeting of Tyrone and Monaghan in Brewster Park and while Tyrone’s long running saga with Down caught the imagination of the province, there is a real possibility that people are forgetting quite how talented this Monaghan team is. Their win over Derry was the kind of form that has to be taken seriously and Tyrone will have to earn their place in the Ulster final.

Having said that there is a feelgood factor around Tyrone football right now as they have turned around their difficulties from earlier in the season. 8/15 might just be a relatively fair reflection of the difference between these two sides. An upset is definitely a possibility here but 15/8 might be no better than an accurate reflection of that possibility. Certainly Kerry plus one looks like the best bet of the night.

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