The somewhat ceremonial final between Kildare and Tyrone is still down for decision, but for the rest of the second division of the National Football League, the next competitive game will be championship fare. Following on from our division one assessments, Here’s the Starbets grades on how the eight counties performed in the league this past few months.

Tyrone – A

Honestly, if we could put a gold star onto this grade, we would. Despite peripheral roles from a lot of the older players, Tyrone have been impeccable throughout this league campaign, playing football with great pace and intensity while still giving playing time to plenty of their younger footballers. The one accusation levelled at Mickey Harte in recent years that was probably a little justified is that he was too slow to realise when some of his loyal servants were past their best and no longer worthy of a place in the first fifteen. This year we’ve finally started to see the best of players like Kyle Coney and Peter Harte and the team has benefitted.

All that said, they’ve still got a very tough run through Ulster in prospect. We’re certainly impressed by what they’ve done so far, but that doesn’t automatically imply that they are a great bet for provincial success, at least not at prices shorter than 2/1.

Kildare – B

Whatever problems there are in the short grass county, on the field of play everything is rosy. Their late escape act to come away from Pearse Stadium with a draw proved their character, while they’ve made a mockery of their supposed “need” for a corner forward like Seanie Johnston by scoring more than any other team bar Wexford in the top three divisions. RTE’s decision to take their Leinster quarter-final meeting with Offaly off the air for fear of offending sensitive viewers says it all about where they are right now.

Galway – C

Their disappointing results against Louth and Westmeath came back to haunt them in terms of promotion, but right now division 2 is not a bad place to be for Galway. They still have a lot of rebuilding to do and staying a little bit below the radar is no harm. Defensively they remain quite strong and the forward line now has balance, but the fact that Padraig Joyce is still the standout performer when he’s on the field is a little bit worrying. Without a genuine blue chip attacker, the worry has to be that there is a bit of a glass ceiling in place for them. That said, after the disarray of the past couple of years, this was a solid Spring showing.

Louth – C

For Louth, this league was all about the nine point win in Navan that relegated the Royal County. Everything else that happened during the campaign was merely a preamble to that fixture. However while they performed well, Westmeath’s resurrection is a cause of concern for the championship since the two sides will meet once again next month. Defensively, Peter Fitzpatrick still has a lot to do and there would be concerns in the county that some of their more experienced forwards might not be as effective on the faster ground. They’ve done well, but it’s difficult to see significant further improvement by the summer.

Westmeath – B

Pat Flanagan has performed miracles here extracting Westmeath out of the relegation mire and saving their place in division two. Without any of the Garrycastle players, without several others due to emigration and injury, he masterminded three wins to secure a mid table finish. Now, unexpectedly, there is a great sense of optimism in the county. Denis Glennon looks to be back to his best up front and if John Heslin performs, he can be hugely effective. Right now they’ve got a lot of momentum and they could even be dark horses to give the Dubs a few nervous moments in Croke Park, provided they get through the challenge of Louth in Navan

Derry – D

They could have had few complaints if they were relegated since they never looked on form throughout the league campaign, with the exception of their six point win over Monaghan. None of the forwards have stepped up to support Paddy Bradley and while he’ll obviously get a lot more help this summer from brother Eoin who is almost back to full fitness, no new players established themselves by playing consistently well throughout the campaign. Right now they look like very poor value for the Ulster championship.

Meath – F

Where do you begin? On the field of play, they actually had a few good outings. They started well against Monaghan, they were clinical in the way they put Westmeath to the sword and they produced a great performance against Kildare which could have resulted in a victory, or maybe even a draw. However since then it’s been all downhill, resulting in the current unseemly public squabbling that is unworthy of a county of their stature. It’s clear that Banty has lost the dressing room, but sending Seán Boylan in would be no help. Boylan is one of the greats of the game but his time has come and gone and the biggest point in his favour is that no county board officer could be criticised for giving him the job. They’d be better off losing to Wicklow, because unless something very strange happens, Kildare will obliterate them in a Leinster semi-final.

Monaghan – E

Their tempestuous win over Kildare should have galvanised the team but instead they limped through the rest of the season, passing up great chances to make their division two status secure. They should have done much better in Mullingar, they coughed up a five point lead against Galway and they played Tyrone when the league leaders had nothing to play for. The prospect of re-introducing players like Dessie Mone, Conor McManus and Tommy Freeman for the championship will keep supporters energised and certainly the Ulster championship draw has been very kind, but right now it’s the Paul Finlay show with nothing by way of a support act. That’s just not good enough.

For the senior footballers and hurlers all across Ireland we’ve a long way still to go until the business end of the season, but already the under-21 championship is beginning to take shape and tonight we’ll get an even clearer picture as to which counties have some of the best prospects coming up through the ranks. Today we’ll preview the four quarter finals taking place in Ulster, where the meeting at Breffni Park tops the bill.

Cavan vs Armagh

As Galway and Wexford have proved so far, reigning under-21 champions means very little when panels change so much from year to year. Cavan retain a lot of their stars from last year but their success in 2011 owed a lot to the attitude and workrate that they brought to every game rather than any significant amount of class. Certainly the All Ireland final against Galway illustrated Cavan’s deficit in that regard and while that may seem unduly critical, it’s actually a huge endorsement of the players themselves that they used their potential so well.

However there is a real danger that they will be outclassed again tonight. Armagh have added plenty of fine young talents to their All Ireland Minor team from 2009 and up front in particular, they look devastating. Under-21 teams don’t always deliver on their potential but if this one does, they’ll win with a bit to spare and could so the whole way through Ulster.

Down vs Antrim

Three years ago there wasn’t a lot to call between Down and Armagh in the Ulster minor final but Down’s players haven’t quite progressed to the same degree, and while Antrim are not usually one of the front runners at this grade, they still have enough raw material in the squad to suggest that they could be competitive. Still, though odds of 1/8 make no appeal, Down should advance here.

Derry vs Monaghan

Monaghan pulled off a surprise win over Derry in last year’s championship and again they look like dark horses in this Ulster championship. There are some concerns about their full back line but they’ve played some good football in challenge matches and will travel to Celtic Park with plenty of cause for optimism. Very little has been said about Derry in the approach to this game and while they have had some promising footballers at minor level over the past three years, they don’t look like worthy odds on shots.

Donegal vs Tyrone

Donegal can call on some proven talent in players like Paddy McBrearty and Brick Molloy for this game, but Tyrone are clearly flying as evidenced by their facile win over Fermanagh, while the ridiculous delay in getting a management team in place in Donegal bodes poorly for the Tír Chonaill men. Getting to know each other is crucial at this grade, all the more so when players might never have met due to the huge distances between the west of the county and places like Inishowen, and it’s notable that Boylesports have already cut their price on Tyrone right in. Expect Paddy Power to follow, so the 5/4 about Tyrone minus two should be taken now, while you can.

Ulster Under-21 Championship Recommendations

Cavan vs Armagh: Armagh to win @ 8/11 (Ladbrokes)

Derry vs Monaghan: Monaghan to win @ 7/4 (Hills, Ladbrokes, Boylesports)

Donegal vs Tyrone: Tyrone -2 pts @ 5/4 (Powers)

The big Leinster clash in division two of the Allianz League catches the eye of the TV cameras this week as Setanta Sports head to Navan for tonight’s battle between Kildare and Meath at Páirc Tailteann. Kildare enjoyed a comprehensive win over the Royal County in last year’s Leinster football championship, but Seamus McEnaney has enjoyed a good start to this year’s league campaign with wins over Monaghan and Westmeath, while Kildare are languishing at the bottom of the table without a win so far. Elsewhere, Galway travel to Westmeath, Monaghan play Derry in a crunch all-Ulster tie and Tyrone travel to Louth in a game where two unbeaten sides play for a place in the promotion places.

Meath vs Kildare

We know Kildare will start to improve at some stage, but the question is when? Kieran McGeeney’s men enjoyed a similarly slow start to last year’s league campaign but they’ve left themselves under real pressure now and a reverse here in this fixture would make relegation a real possibility. A county with real designs on provincial and All Ireland success can ill afford to be playing football in division three – unless your province is Connacht – and logic dictates that sheer need will push them over the line here. Still, Meath have a great home record in the league and the shrewd betting play could be backing the green flags to stay rooted, with neither inside line looking good at the moment.

Derry vs Monaghan

At the start of the season Derry were considered among the front runners for promotion, while Monaghan were widely regarded as the most likely county to get sucked in if Westmeath or Louth somehow escaped the drop zone. In the first week of competition Derry slipped up against a dangerous Galway team and Monaghan lost to Meath. Fast forward to week two and Derry get hammered by Tyrone (could happen to anyone) while Monaghan win a physical battle with Kildare, and somehow Derry are now 10/11 at home? The betting here is a gross over-reaction to one week of play and at Celtic Park, Derry are well worthy of support.

Louth vs Tyrone

On the basis of their form so far, Tyrone are entitled to be surging up the betting for the All Ireland, never mind the national football league. The Red Hand County have been devastating against both Kildare and Derry, though Louth too will be happy with their haul of three points from games against Westmeath and Galway. The Wee men re-introduce Michael Fanning who has returned from Australia and he slots into the centre back berth, with Jamie Carr returning to corner back, bolstering the full back line. Louth’s optimism will be lifted even further by the news that Monaghan now have to travel to Drogheda, further enhancing their promotion prospects. Louth are not to be opposed lightly right now, much less at home with a three point start.

Westmeath vs Galway

Logic and reason dictates that when you can bet on a home team in a league match with a six point start, you absolutely should do so. Hills go 5/6 about Westmeath plus six points here and after Galway scored a mere nine times against Louth in their previous outing, they don’t look like good bets to clear a large spread.

The issue however is that Westmeath are simply woeful at the moment and supporters are much more interested in their under-21 footballers and the fortunes of Garrycastle than in the county senior team, of whom very little is expected. John Heslin walks straight back into the team after returning from Australia and he’ll add plenty of power to the midfield sector, but right now things aren’t going well for the Lake County and the best way to bet this game is to take a big price about Galway really going to town. Things are coming to a head soon in the midlands, and it’s hard to see Pat Flanagan turning things around in the meantime.

NFL Division 2 Recommendations

Meath vs Kildare: No Goalscorer @ 4/1 (Powers, Hills, Ladbrokes)

Derry vs Monaghan: Derry to win @ 10/11 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

Westmeath vs Galway: Galway to win by 10-12 points @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

A full card of fixtures in the lower divisions of the Allianz National Football League gives us plenty of interesting betting opportunities to go with the division one and hurling ties already covered here on Starbets. Many of the games look to be reasonably well measured by the bookmaking community, but one or two could offer a chance to secure real value before some of tomorrow’s games.

Division 2 – Monaghan vs Kildare

After being installed as one of the favourites to win the division in the early stages, Kildare are suddenly under pressure after losing their first round fixture to Tyrone. Perhaps more worrying from a Kildare perspective was the way that Tyrone outfought and outbattled them in Croke Park, starving the Kildare forwards of opportunities. Normally criticism of the Lily Whites stems from their profligacy in front of goal, but they didn’t even get the chance to spurn a lot of chances as Tyrone monopolised possession, particularly in the second half.

Now that Seánie Johnston has started training in the county, the forwards currently in McGeeney’s squad must be well aware that they need to start performing very soon – and this week Monaghan could feel the backlash. The Farney men were very disappointing in Navan in their first outing and while they did create a lot of chances, the absence of natural finishers cost them. Take Kildare to cover the handicap here.

Division 3 – Sligo vs Wexford

Sligo were by far the most impressive of the four losing away sides in this division last week, while Wexford took full advantage of some very poor defending to notch four goals against Cavan at Wexford Park. Manager Jason Ryan and his players will make the long trip to the north west tomorrow and they’ll know that there is no way they’ll get that kind of charity from one of the most under-rated defensive units in the league, led by tenacious corner backs Ross Donovan and Charlie Harrison. Take Sligo to edge the game, and also this could be a good game to go low on the total goals market as well.

Division 4 – Fermanagh vs Clare

Never underestimate the value of getting a good game under your belt. Fermanagh may have been rejuvenated by the arrival of Peter Canavan, but the postponement of their clash with London was a disappointing outcome for the Erne County and they should have their hands full with a sharp Clare team this week. Clare look much stronger with their Kilmurry-Ibrickane players on board and last weekend’s outing against Waterford will stand to them. The long trip won’t make life easy but this is still a game where it makes much more sense to side with the visitors, at least with the three point head start.

Allianz NFL Recommendations

Monaghan vs Kildare: Kildare -2 @ 5/4 (BetVictor)

Sligo vs Wexford: Sligo @ 5/4 (Boylesports), Under 1.5 goals @ 4/5 (Ladbrokes)

Fermanagh vs Clare: Clare + 3 @ 10/11 (Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports)

For many years, national league action was seen as irrelevant when the big business of championship came around in the summer. This writer still remembers Offaly winning the National Hurling League in 1991, only to lose to Dublin in the Leinster championship that summer and break a run of eleven successive appearances in the Leinster hurling final. From then on, League success went from being considered irrelevant to being seen as a terrible omen, to be feared and avoided, in the drinking establishments around Birr, Coolderry, Kinnitty and Banagher.

Not many counties would have gone out of their way to avoid league success in that manner, but there were very few players that started their year dreaming of lifting league trophies in April. Then in the noughties, things changed. In football at least, league and championship performances became much more strongly correlated and playing well in the spring became much more important to managers. That belief has subsided a little in recent years, but for counties that feel like they’re in with a genuine chance of competing for the All Ireland, division one remains the place to be.

In theory eight counties start this season looking to secure promotion to the top flight, though in reality, there are three types of teams in this division. There are those that are desperate to go back up to the top flight and will be looking to win at least five of their seven ties – Kildare, Tyrone, Derry and Galway would each feel like they belong in this category. Meath and Monaghan are probably in their natural environment in division two and the supporters of both counties would probably be happy just to hold their own and avoid the drop, while Louth and Westmeath look to be a little out of their depth and each would be delighted to take a sixth place finish if it were offered to them right now. Since they play what looks like the first relegation four-pointer of the year, we’ll start our preview there.

Louth vs Westmeath

The Wee County have been all the rage in the betting market this week and one has to wonder how long William Hills’ price of 4/7 will last as everyone else crumbles around them. Paddy Power have even gone as far as 1/3 and are now offering 11/4 about Westmeath, a remarkable price in a match between two sides that look relatively evenly matched, at least when at full strength. Westmeath are of course missing their Garrycastle contingent, but despite Garrycastle’s domination of the Westmeath domestic scene, their strength is the balance and lack of weakness in their squad rather than individual brilliance. Dessie Dolan is no longer capable of seventy minutes at intercounty level, while Doran Harte and James Dolan were the only two players from the club that started Westmeath’s last championship match against Antrim. If the flow of money is based on this, then we would happily back Westmeath at the current prices with confidence.

Louth are far from full strength themselves. Mark Brennan, Shane Lennon, Declan Byrne, Aaron Hoey and Jamie Carr all miss out through injury. In case the money is emanating from the Mullingar area where news is creeping out of an outbreak of ebola virus within the camp we’ll tread warily, but this is one where it might be worth taking the counter view, albeit to very, very small stakes.

Meath vs Monaghan

Monaghan’s trajectory doesn’t make for good reading from a Farney county perspective and while this column has made plenty of money opposing Meath at fancy prices in the past, this is not the time to take them on. The Royals have a fantastic record in league games at Páirc Tailteann and it’s just too hard to see the lightweight Monaghan forward line that has been named accumulating a winning total here.

Derry vs Galway

There have been so many false dawns in Galway football over the past few years that football people in the county must be wondering if they will ever see a chink of light at senior level again. They are fast starting to mimic their hurlers – great at underage, all the ingredients for success, yet spectacular underachievers at county level for no obvious reason.

Derry have looked very impressive so far this year and were it not for James Conway’s unlucky yellow card, they would probably be coming into this game on the back of five successive victories in the McKenna Cup. Galway are the type of underdog that we don’t oppose lightly, but at the same time they still look very light in this kind of company and could be in for a tough day at Celtic Park.

Kildare vs Tyrone

And so to the big one. Two sides on the back of good runs in preseason competition, each considered genuine Sam Maguire contenders and the two favourites to win this division. Kildare have looked unstoppable so far but last year they were a high scoring team and they haven’t really got into that rhythm yet in 2012. They secured comfortable wins over a mediocre DIT side, a very young and inexperienced Offaly team and a Dublin side carrying a lot of “winter condition” after celebrating a momentous success last year. Tyrone will do well to compete aroung midfield where they could be overpowered, but a quick look at the two forward lines suggests that the men in red might be a little bit more dangerous than they are being given credit for. Without Doyle and Callaghan, Kildare are missing scoring power.

Kildare at 5/6 with William Hill will be a popular bet, but we’re going to go against the grain and suggest that the open space of Croke Park may lead to a goal or two, with Mark Donnelly a good shout to nick one at some stage.

Division Two recommendations

Westmeath vs Louth: Westmeath to win by 4-6 points @ 13/1 (Powers)

Meath vs Monaghan: Meath -1pt @ evens (Powers)

Derry vs Galway: Derry @ 8/13 (William Hill)

Kildare vs Tyrone: Mark Donnelly anytime goalscorer @ 7/2 (generally available)

Perhaps the highest profile football fixture that took place last weekend was Down’s meeting with Armagh in the McKenna Cup, probably the only all-division one battle that will take place in preseason competition in 2012. What looked like a renewal of a fiercely contested local derby when it was first drawn up turned into something of a canter for Down however, as Armagh struggled to compensate for the absence of their Crossmaglen players and several other key individuals. James McCartan’s selection looked very fresh when first announced, but he had a lot of strength on the bench to call upon if required, and the value of that was clear to see when he was able to get meaningful contributions from Conor Laverty, Aidan Brannigan and of course Benny Coulter.

The question that now has to be asked, since most observers and journalists present in Newry agreed that the eight point margin was a fair reflection, is how good were Down? Alternatively, how bad were Armagh?

To put it another way – Monaghan had an eight point win over St Mary’s College, who were expected to struggle without some key players like Tyrone’s Peter Harte, but their substantial winning margin was largely the result of some very poor shooting from the teaching college students and most observers in Clones felt that a five or six point margin would have been fairer, albeit in a match that never really caught fire. So in theory at least, the gap between Down and Monaghan should be the same if not bigger than the gap between Armagh and St Mary’s – yet Armagh are  as short as 1/4 in places for their match, while Monaghan are not to be had at any price bigger than the 2/1 on offer from William Hill. It’s not unreasonable to infer that either the potential of an upset in the Morgan Atheltic Grounds is being understated, or else Down should be stronger favourites against Monaghan.

The wild card in this line of thinking however is the concern about which teams will improve most from last Sunday to next – and of course the answer here should be the county teams. The college sides have played a league campaign as a coherent panel and are a lot further in their development, while the county sides have theoretically at least, not been playing collectively for several months. Having had their first session together, they should improve immensely for that exercise, all the more when trying to integrate new players with more experienced footballers. Nonetheless the very real prospect of greatly altered teams mitigates this somewhat.

While there is a lot to like about Down, best priced at 8/13 with Boylesports – certainly we’d prefer to be backing that than taking the 2/1 about Monaghan – our gut feeling here is that Armagh really struggled to compensate for the absence of their key players and that they could be very vulnerable favourites this week. St Mary’s haven’t shown any signs over the winter of improving significantly on their performances in recent years, but they’ve still won one game out of three in this competition in each of the last three seasons. With Down currently flying, they’ll almost certainly have to beat Armagh to keep that record up for a fourth successive year and while the county men should still hold an edge, Hills, Powers and Boylesports are all 10/3 about an upset win and that price is just about big enough to justify a small interest.

McKenna Cup Round 2 Recommendation

Armagh vs St Marys: St Mary’s to win at 10/3 (Boylesports, Hills, Powers)

Continuing now with the third part in the series, detailing those counties that will be hoping to make a real breakthrough into the top tier in 2012…..

17. Roscommon (16 – Disimprovement)

Few counties better illustrate the inequity of the current provincial structure than Roscommon, who have reached the last twelve of the All Ireland race for each of the last two seasons despite failing to beat any top twenty county in league or championship along the way. That there is talent in the county cannot be questioned and that’s the only reason why they aren’t ranked even lower, but a few cracks are starting to appear that suggest that some of their brightest hopes from the 2006 minor team simply aren’t progressing as well as many supporters would have hoped. Players like Peter Domican, Senan Kilbride and Cathal Cregg would be welcome into any county team in Ireland, but there will be no handy run to the Connacht final this year and as a result it would be a huge surprise to this column if they were still playing football in August.

16. Limerick (17 – slight disimprovement)

A little bit more luck in the early part of the league would have gone a long way and by the time they found their rhythm in the summer, even without talismanic midfielder John Galvin, they looked like a dangerous force in the qualifiers. The draw was extremely kind to them and not many teams would get to reach an All Ireland quarter final beating only division three sides, but it’s hard to be too critical of a team that only lost to Kerry in the championship. If they can continue to create space for what is a very potent forward line they’ll do well, but their league match against Fermanagh will be particularly revealing as no side under Canavan is likely to allow a lot of space to their direct opponents. Expect Fermanagh to write the script for how to neutralise Limerick in 2012.

15. Laois (15 – no change)

Based on league form, Laois deserve to be ranked much higher than this, but in the championship they’ve made little or no impression for some years now. Manager Justin McNulty looked like he was achieving some good things in the county but the poor state of their domestic championship is a concern and many of their younger prospects aren’t progressing as well as they should. They will almost certainly get relegated from division one but if they can learn from playing at that standard, they might just have enough to come through a treacherous first round championship tie against Longford.

14. Meath (11 – Slight disimprovement)

The wisdom in picking a non-Meath manager to take charge of the Royal County for the first time is being questioned at the moment with Seamus McEnaney yet to win over the footballing public in Meath. Up front the county has no problems with a string of capable attacking players but the absence of Nigel Crawford will be keenly felt this year while all across the midfield and half back line there are concerns. Their reputation is masking quite how many problems there are in Meath football at the moment.

13. Monaghan (13 – disimprovement)

Their shocking qualifier performance in Tullamore last year was either the portent of the start of a long term decline or else one bad day, an anomaly to be ignored. Sadly for Monaghan supporters, this column suspects it could be the former. The Farney men have been one of the most competitive and consistent counties in terms of punching above their weight in the last few years but a lot of that was down to Tommy Freeman’s incisive play up front and while Conor McManus has stepped up to a certain degree, some very average footballers have seen significant playing time under Seamus McEneaney. Their attitude to the game means that they won’t slip too far but if we were to predict one championship upset now, Antrim vs Monaghan in Clones in the first round of the Ulster championship would be our first choice.

12. Wexford (14 – Slight improvement)

After a couple of years of stagnation, Wexford finally found their rhythm in 2011 and were very unlucky both in terms of missing out on promotion and in losing out to Limerick in the fourth round of the qualifiers. Indeed Kerry were probably delighted to see Limerick trip up Wexford because the Slaneysiders could have created a much more interesting All Ireland quarter final if they had advanced to meet the Kingdom. They have an experienced squad that physically are a lot more powerful than they’ve been given credit for and by far they look like the most realistic contender for a Leinster title outside of the big two.

11. Galway (10 – improvement)

If you were to design a scenario where a county should be poised to make huge gains in 2012, you’d struggle to create anything more ideal than the situation out west. You have a very strong club championship, a highly talented bunch of young footballers waiting in the wings, a local manager who has earned respect with his achievements and a group of senior players that must be eager to start accumulating the medals that their talent warrants. The problem is that many of these conditions have been in place previously. Time will tell if Alan Mulholland can unlock the world of potential that lies in Galway football, but if he can’t manage it, there’s little hope for anyone.

10. Armagh (12 – No change)

The depth in Armagh football is not as much of a strength as many outside the county believe, but they have some fine individual talents and players like Aaron Kernan are incredibly good role models for the younger players that are coming in. One or two injuries tend to hit the county very hard but they are not as far off the pace as all that. If Jamie Clarke starts replicating his club form in the Ulster Championship, they could be real dark horses to take provincial honours.

9. Derry (9 – Slight improvement)

Last year was a glorious chance for an Ulster title that went astray and one wonders quite how many such chances will come their way. If we were projecting well into the future we’d struggle to be optimistic for the Derry men but in the short term, 2012 has to be a big year for the county. Injury permitting both Paddy and Eoghan Bradley will be available to manager John Brennan and if he can get the two Glenullin brothers working well within the framework of the team, he’ll have a unit capable of a lot of success.

So, hot on the heels after our initial look at the newly formed betting market for Division 1 of the National Football League, let’s step down the order and take our first look at division two and the counties hoping to earn a shot at the big guns in 2013. Traditionally the second and third tier contests are the most competitive, however 2010 was a little different in that Antrim, Sligo and Meath were very much cut adrift at the bottom, playing noticeably poorer than the other five teams in the division two race. Meath were the county who managed to escape making the drop out of that trio and they will enjoy plenty of local derbies next year with games to come against Kildare, Westmeath, Louth and Monaghan, home county of manager Seamus McEnaney.

At the other end of the table last year it was Laois and Donegal who secured promotion, meaning that league heavyweights Kildare, Derry and Tyrone must spend another year at this level. Boylesports and Ladbrokes both make Tyrone and Kildare joint favourites at 3/1 each, while Hills and Powers both side with the Ulster men at 5/2 and go 7/2 Kildare. Despite the plethora of retirements out of the Tyrone squad that we’ve seen over the last few months, a quick look at the fixture list illustrates why Powers and Hills might be the ones with the right idea here.

Tyrone are down for four home games while Kildare have only three, but in fact this advantage is even more skewed since one of Kildare’s home games is their first round fixture against Tyrone, which has been moved to neutral Croke Park. Kieran McGeeney is likely to spend the earlier part of the season putting his squad through intense physical preparation and they won’t be looking to peak too early, while Mickey Harte is very keen on competing against the best teams in the league and would relish the opportunity to get back up into the top flight. It’s not that his relatively fresh squad will be spared tough training, but he’ll still be chasing every league point on offer. If they can get a result against Kildare in the first round they’ll be hard stopped, while even if they don’t, they’ll have four home games and a trip to Louth still to come, five games where they’ll be favoured to win.

Meath’s away form in the league is too shocking to trust, while Louth and Westmeath simply don’t have the personnel to win five games in this company. Westmeath did play division one football only a couple of years ago however they were badly exposed at that level and while they deserved their promotion from division three last year, neither they nor Louth could argue that they were significantly better than any of the other teams in what was a ridiculously evenly matched division.

The wild card here is Galway. The Galway footballers are beginning to mimic their hurlers in that they’ve enjoyed plenty of underage success, they have a thriving club scene that would rival any county in Ireland, and yet they’ve flattered to deceive when it comes to championship football. This columnist has shown faith in them a few times only to be severely punished for doing so, however lloking at all the factors, we’d still be slow to oppose them next year. Whether that’s a fair opinion or failing to learn from our mistakes remains to be seen. The appointment of Alan Mulholland is a nice change of pace after two years of different outside managers and they certainly can’t argue with a schedule that gave them four home games and brings their three main rivals in the betting – Tyrone, Kildare and Meath – west of the Shannon to either Tuam or Pearse Stadium.

Memories of previous bad bets will be a tough barrier for this columnist to overcome before we recommend them again, however they are well worth watching with interest in preseason competition.

Monaghan and Derry were also only given three home games, but the Oak Leaf men won’t be too worried about making the short spin down the A505 towards Healy Park and they’ll also be confident that if they put themselves in a position where they need a result in Mullingar in the last round to secure promotion, that’s well within their grasp. Paddy Power are biggest at 7/1 Derry and they will surely see plenty of interest in a county that has played some of their best football in the league in recent years. Here at Starbets we’d like to be a lot more certain of how close to full strength they’ll be before getting stuck in, but it’s the kind of price that is well worth putting in the “maybe” column, to be re-examined in January.

In the tricky quest to find some value winners in the first round of the football qualifiers you may find some worth in noting the market movers. Here I’ll talk you through our thinking on some of the price changes made in the run up to today’s games.

A question I’m often asked is “How much money does it take to change a price?” To ask the question is to misunderstand the dynamic of the market. As John Maynard Keynes retorted when challenged about his shift in position on monetary policy: “When the facts change, I change my mind.”

In the case of the Sligo v Wicklow game the changing fact is that Sligo travel to Wicklow missing a significant number of players who would be expected to deliver the top level of performance that the county team is capable of. In the absence of these players our original price of 11/8 against a Wicklow victory was overly generous, so without seeing any significant amount of money for Mick O’Dwyer’s side we took the measure to reassess the game and move Wicklow in to 11/10.

Our price of even money Sligo is the best in the industry today. It’s not so much that we’re ‘out to get them’ but an under-strength side having been beaten by Leitrim then having to travel the breadth of the country for a first round qualifier tie look a selection that we’d struggle to lay at odds-on.

Another side that we are now stand-out against is Offaly. Having suffered a brutal beating against a county that they historically wouldn’t feel inferior to when Wexford wiped the floor with them, they were then dragged in to the controversy surrounding their county’s hurling counterparts when a high profile pundit – and a platoon of internet gossipers – questioned how they ‘refuelled’ between games. John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan quit the panel, and of course Offaly would not be renowned for blazing a trail through the qualifiers.

Even with a home draw things are stacking against Tom Cribben’s side. Monaghan on the other hand were nobly defeated by Tyrone, perhaps exceeding expectations as a new-look championship side took the game to the Ulster champions. A hard luck story in Dick Clerkin’s sending off presents an opportunity to ponder what might have been; they seem to be a unified and focussed panel that expects to improve through the qualifiers. We have the Ulster side in to 4/11 with Offaly now available at 3/1.

One selection that has been moved by market forces rather than team news is Down on the handicap against Clare.

We went up with a six point line on this game, Down at 10/11. It didn’t last so long. We saw interest from some customers whose view we respect and it became apparent that we were going to end up in an extreme position if we didn’t alter the prices. We cut Down to 4/5 and saw yet more money, so we went 4/6 and also opened up a new line at 7 points for customers who wanted odds closer to even money on their handicap pick.

Teams like Clare can be difficult to assess. They don’t get a lot of airtime or a lot of column inches. Their team news or reports on camp morale tends not to displace any of the headlines on the sports bulletins. What does reveal everything we need to know about Clare however is the weight of money opposing them. The punters penny is the key indicator, and we haven’t seen many notes cross the counter accompanying a docket with Clare +6 or Clare +7 on it.

Punt On!

The first round of the qualifiers is a unique test for punters in that it is often a test of the ability to read minds and mindsets as much as it is a test of the ability to read footballing skill and attributes.

Most of the match ups usually lack the local rivalry element that add a little bit of heat to the encounter, and in many cases players are often more concerned about catching a flight to America, or perhaps even getting back to their clubs and getting on with domestic affairs, than they are with prolonging a county season that is often going nowhere to begin with.

Either way, here’s Off the Ground’s assessment of the eight football qualifiers taking place tomorrow.

London vs Fermanagh

This column’s honest assessment is this – it’s impossible to say what the right price is, except that 1/2 Fermanagh and 15/8 London, as Ladbrokes have chalked up, is simply not it. This was not the draw Fermanagh wanted at all, on any level. They have one of the smallest budgets on the intercounty circuit and a €20k trip to London was not what the doctor ordered at all. With London on a high, the general perception is that Fermanagh are ripe for the picking, and the money has reflected this, piling into the Exiles who were as big as 5/1 in places when the odds were first released.

If Fermanagh buy into all this, then London should be favourites. If Fermanagh travel over here determined not to become the first county to lose to London in the qualifiers and believing that there is still something to be salvaged out of this season, then they are 1/6 shots. After all London are still the same county that manage one league win over anyone other than Kilkenny every couple of years. As we said, 1/2 is not right, but ascertaining the correct odds is another matter entirely. The lot of the compiler is an unhappy one here.

Fermanagh minus three at 6/5 looks like the best bet here, given that even though their best players are at home, those that travel still have a lot of pride in the jersey and won’t lie down, and London have lost the element of surprise.

Clare vs Down

Clare have better footballers than they are often given credit for, and if they smelled blood in the water, they would be a real dangerous outsider. Unfortunately Down is simply too big a target, they needed a Cavan, Sligo, Offaly or Antrim to come to Ennis. The retirement of John Clarke, the injury to Danny Hughes, uncertainty over the defensive credentials of the half back line, all these issues still have to be addressed by James McCartan, but they won’t be solved this week. Either way, Down will win here and probably cover the spread in the process.

Louth vs Meath

Remember all that stuff in the first paragraph about how qualifiers often lack the bite due to counties meeting that have no axe to grind? Well scratch that for this one.

It’s a huge pity that this tie couldn’t take place in Louth, because this could have been a humdinger of a tie if it was played in Drogheda with supporters hanging from the rafters, baying for Royal County blood. That wasn’t possible, but even so Louth could be in with a chance here.

Much of the discussion after Kildare’s Leinster quarter final win over Meath centred on Kildare’s inability to shoot, which was fair comment but still missed the point from a Meath perspective. Meath won 50% of the primary possession in that game at least, and yet they had less than half the number of chances as Kildare.

Meath simply don’t know how to turn possession into scoring chances under Banty and a Meath team playing possession football is a round peg trying to fit into a square hole – it’s just not natural. Paddy Keenan can spoil the midfield at least, he won’t meet anyone as good as Brendan Murphy here, and while the Louth half forward line is hugely underwhelming, if Meath turn over ball the same way as they did against Kildare, then Lennon, Maguire and Rooney will get chances.

Louth being Louth, a heartbreaking defeat is always possible, so 6/5 about Louth plus two is the best play.

Offaly vs Monaghan

Even as an Offaly native, calling this one is tough. Offaly have the players to give Monaghan a tough time in Tullamore, but banking on them to be in the right mindset to do so is a risky game. The Wexford game hurt this team and management badly, and subsequent events that have accused them of being good-time-charlies can’t have gone down well either. In many counties that would lead to a backlash, but sometimes backlashes in Offaly don’t always work out how one would imagine. They often take place far away from the field of play.

Anton Sullivan is a huge loss and while the team named is certainly not that which will start, the withdrawal of John Reynolds and Thomas Deehan robs Tom Cribbin of several options so there won’t be that many surprises.

If Offaly get goals, this could be close, but they’ll need the rub of the green because they have proven that they can’t overcome any bad luck in the middle of games.

Laois vs Tipperary

The accepted wisdom regarding this fixture is that Laois were going the right way under Justin McNulty, they just overdid the defensive play and got blown away by a strong Dublin team. That’s as may be, but Tipperary played a strong Kerry team and got no luck, so it’s very early to say that they are way off the pace. Tipperary are a solid division three team, no better, no worse, while Laois are a cut above that. However the Laois half forward line is desperately short on scoring power and there remain question marks over the form of both Kingston and Tierney. Laois should win, but 1/3 with Ladbrokes is way too short. Instead, take even money about less than 28.5 points in the game. It’s hard to see either side scoring fifteen points in this game, never mind both of them.

Cavan vs Longford

It says a lot that despite all the comments directed at the problems in Leinster football, one of the weakest counties in the province is favoured to win away from home against an Ulster team who would probably be regarded as no worse than seventh in the northern province right now. This is a great fixture for the locals who share a keen rivalry but rarely get to meet on the field. Longford to win is the accepted wisdom, but it mightn’t be that simple. No bet here, there’s just too many talented forwards on that Cavan team who could hit form at any time.

Wicklow vs Sligo

What looked like a reasonable assignment for Sligo when the fixture was drawn up has grown more and more difficult as their list of absentees has extended. Johnny Davey and David Kelly are unable to return, Ken Sweeney has followed Keelan Cawley out of Ireland, Brendan Curran and Alan Costello are suspended and all in all Sligo look to have their work cut out for them. Ladbrokes appear to be of the same mind here, offering Sligo at a best price of even money, while only giving 11/10 to Wicklow backers. In a neutral venue, with both sides at full strength, Sligo would be 2/5 here – right now, Wicklow probably deserve narrow favouritism and would be the tentative call.

Antrim vs Westmeath

Two sides that were desperately poor in the first round, but the managers have taken a very different approach to this qualifier tie. Liam Bradley has picked the same Antrim side as started against Donegal, while Pat Flanagan has reverted to type with a very defensive alignment, including two wing forwards who would usually be known as defenders. The other side of this is that the selection of Denis Corroon as a wing back is an unusual one, but one that Gary Connaughton could look to target with kickouts.

The Westmeath hurlers would happily testify as to how difficult it is to play an away fixture in Belfast, so far from home, however the 13/10 makes plenty of appeal even so. Dessie Dolan and Denis Glennon is a fine inside forward pairing and while they were out-gunned against Wexford, Antrim simply don’t have the same scoring power to match them blow for blow. Another low scoring battle could be in prospect here, but we’ll give the tentative nod to the outsiders to sneak it. In fact Westmeath to win by 1-3pts would be our favourite winning margin bet of the week.

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