Posts Tagged ‘NHL’
Taking a break from the football analysis for the moment, the national hurling league finals in division one and two take place this weekend in Semple Stadium, and one could be forgiven for assuming that a little bit of Munster hurling bias was factored into the prices. The division two decider between Clare and Wexford looks, on all known form, to be a quite even match. A quick look at the respective formlines of the two protagonists this year confirms this. Both sides hammered Down and won easily against Kildare and Westmeath, both sides beat Laois by four and they each drew with each other. Wexford won well against Antrim but fell to Carlow, while Clare played poorly against both and limped home in each case by a single point – overall balancing out.
Nobody likes bankers very much these days and visions of Seanie Fitzpatrick and the like living it up on the taxpayers’ shilling is hard to stomach for a lot of people, but in a betting shop, bankers are still very welcome. Everybody loves a short odds favourite that looks like it can’t lose and “bankers” thus get inserted to make up the odds on every multiple bet going.
This column has never been a huge fan of multiple bets since mathematically, there is much more margin built in than is the case with single bets. As any bookie worth his salt will tell you, a punter who regularly bets 7/1 single bets will almost always beat the punter who places the same stake on a treble on three even money shots, simply because the margin built into the treble is usually so much more.
If the world of hurling worked in a similar fashion to the WWE (or the WWF as a few people might remember it) then Tipperary would now, by virtue of their win over Kilkenny, be the reigning All Ireland Champions. In the wrestling world, they may have ended up winning it only after Liam Sheedy came onto the field and hit Tommy Walsh over the back of the head with a steel chair, but they’d still be the champions right now.
Of course in the real world, Kilkenny remain the kingpins and Tipperary are the number one contenders when it comes to championship honours irrespective of any league results – but that means little to punters right now, looking for winners in mid-March.
Unlike previous years when the National Football League opened under the glare of Croke Park lights with thousands in attendance, this year the powers that be chose to set the NFL off with a lot less fanfare. Fixtures such as Kerry vs Dublin and Derry vs Tyrone could have been harnessed to create a sense of occasion, but overall there was no grand opening, so to speak.
The same certainly could not be said of the hurling. This Saturday night the undisputed big two counties in the game at the moment go head to head in a game that should get any small ball enthusiast salivating at the prospect. Last year Kilkenny and Tipperary went head to head in both the National Hurling League final and the All Ireland final, and in both instances supporters were treated to a humdinger of a match, with Kilkenny winning out both times. A large crowd is likely to make the trek to Tom Semple’s field in the hope of similarly competitive action this weekend, with TV cameras also on hand.
The forgotten match between these two counties last year was their meeting in Nowlan Park in the round robin stages of the league towards the end of March when Kilkenny laid down a marker with a 5-17 to 1-12 hammering. The nett result of these three results is that Kilkenny will feel that whether the game is close or not, whether they lead or trail coming into the closing stages, they should have the upper hand – and for that reason, this Saturday night’s fixture is a lot more meaningful to Tipperary than it is to Kilkenny. Of course Brian Cody would never admit it, but deep down the James Stephens man knows that a loss or two in the league tends to knock the complacency out of his players and that there is no danger of his side ever feeling inferior to Tipperary, so a win is not really as important.
For Liam Sheedy, he knows that the longer his team go without beating Kilkenny, the more of a mental block it will become to ever do so. His team have done a lot of great work to get to the stage that they’re at, nipping at the heels of the greatest team that has ever played the game, but if they don’t take out Kilkenny soon, it will all be to no avail. Nobody remembers second best, least of all in a county with a tradition like theirs. Tipperary also know more than most how psychological factors can take hold and become genuine stumbling blocks. Tipp spent many years hurling really well in Munster before crumbling in Croke Park and it took a pathetic performance from Limerick last summer to allow them to shake that monkey off their backs and the last thing they need is another simian passenger mounting their shoulders.
Of course there is a world of difference between needing to win and being able to, but on that level too, this game seems primed for a Tipperary success. Many of Kilkenny’s frontline hurlers didn’t see any Walsh Cup action, while the absence of the Ballyhale contingent will be an issue for them as well. Home support and a greater degree of familiarity with floodlit hurling should be of huge benefit to Tipp this weekend and even allowing for a couple of absentees, greater hunger and a good level of home support should push them over the line.
A 3pt bet on Tipperary to beat Kilkenny at even money is recommended for Saturday night’s fixture.
Preseason form is rarely given too much credence at the best of times, but a Walsh Cup where Kilkenny lose to both Offaly and Laois is unlikely to be regarded as anything other than a meaningless knockaround by most observers. Suffice it to say that this columnist, a long suffering Offaly man, didn’t feel the need to celebrate Offaly’s win over the Cats to any great degree and it’s probably reasonable to assume that over in Laois it’s the opening rounds of the league, where Kildare, and more importantly Clare, visit Portlaoise in rounds one and two that will be occupying Niall Rigney’s thoughts.
There is no doubt that the Kilkenny team to play Tipperary in Semple Stadium will be wholly different from the unfamiliar group who took the field against the two midland counties, but nonetheless it’s unreasonable to expect any team, even one as good as this Kilkenny side, to slip back into the groove without having played a lot hurling together so far.
With less than 18 hours to go until tomorrow’s hurling finals from Semple Stadium, punters are now working with a full hand in terms of team information and though there haven’t been too many surprises in the teams named, the return of David Kenny and David Franks to the Offaly full back line, perversely enough, helps us to isolate value in picking a Wexford player to be first goalscorer.
Rory Jacob is the 6/1 favourite in the first goalscorer market and if one was to price this market looking at the forwards alone, then it would be hard to argue with the price as either too big or too small. However when pricing up first goalscorer, it’s not unheard of for compilers to look at the forwards picked and ignore the defenders who will be picking them up. With Franks and Kenny back in harness, both Stephen Banville and Pat Kenny will find themselves up against interprovincial standard opponents, while Jacob will be the man best positioned to exploit Offaly’s left corner back slot, a position that has caused Joe Dooley a considerable degree of concern this season. James Rigney, a very hard working hurler from the Kinnitty club has been deployed in this role for tomorrow, but he has never been a full back line hurler at county or even club level and while he may yet turn out to be the answer to Offaly’s problems in this position, while learning the roped he’s likely to find the going very tricky against the elusive Jacob.
Wexford have been scoring goals freely in Division two all season and while Offaly should be in a better position to curb this trend with their star men back on the field, but at 6/1, Rory Jacob to be the first goalscorer is worth a two point bet.
Ladbrokes have also issued prices on the weekend hurling matches in Cork and in doing so, appear to have offered a small bit of value in a Sunday afternoon fixture. Joe Deane is one of the more prominent absentees from this year’s Cork intercounty panel, however his absence from the top level has greatly strengthened his club and they have been a rejuvenated force this year. They don’t have the depth to win a Cork championship or anything like that, but at 7/4 they represent excellent value to turn over Bride Rovers and a 2pt bet on Killeagh to beat Bride Rovers at 7/4 rounds off our weekend’s punting.
It’s a little disappointing that when the national hurling league finally reverts to the most simple and effective format of an eight team divisional structure with a clear heirarchy, the powers that be are rewarded with a final round where absolutely nothing is at stake in the flagship division. Kilkenny and Tipperary will contest the final irrespective of their results this weekend, while Clare will be playing division two hurling in 2010, despite Mike McNamara’s best attempts to suggest otherwise, meaning that all four division one fixtures this weekend will be of no real consequence.
Sadly for those of us keen to pick out a bet for the weekend, this also makes it extremely difficult to isolate value when essentially we are punting on which teams will choose to go all out and which will treat these glorified challenge matches as just that.
Whether it’s a product of a bartending past or simply a low attention span, yours truly has never been one to be pigeon-holed into a single career, always preferring a mix, a cocktail if you will, of different professions. Having worked as both a bookmaking bean counter and a small town scribe in the past, this current incarnation is quite the healthy mix of both those vocations, though as any good cocktail bartender could say, it just needs something extra to add a little kick!
As a result, as well as directing, you’ll no doubt have noticed that Off the Ground is also partial to a little education, having also attempted to impart maths to young midlanders in the distant past. Education in the ways of gambling is a tricky art with different people preferring to bet in different ways, but one of those key lessons has always been to try and stay away from the high profile games where the odds compiler (who represents the competition after all!) is well informed, instead hanging out in the dark hallways of club games, lower division games, college matches and the like.
Both here and elsewhere on Betdiary.ie, the reader will find plenty of recommendations in terms of what teams/horses/individuals are well fancied and well priced and long may that continue. However this column certainly, and no doubt the others as well, also takes very seriously a second responsibility – the duty to help people understand where value is to be found and how to identify it for themselves. One tenet is central to this. Ultimately all GAA compilers, punters and supporters are hamstrung by the one thing they all have in common – it’s impossible to see everything.
In racing and in soccer (to give two examples) the truly diligent student can take time out, get recordings of races or matches and see everything that there is to be seen. In GAA, that option is not available to us. Two or three live games are broadcast every weekend, highlights shown on TG4 of one or two more, and if we’re lucky we get to attend a game or two as well – notwithstanding any involvement in a club or county on a personal level.
Odds compilers will always tell you that this time of year is one of the trickiest to price up outright betting. League outright markets become less about which team is better than which and instead become complicated mathematical nightmares with countless different permutations. These permutations are an inexact science at the best of times since they are dependent on different interpretations of match odds, but even so they often throw up anomalies in outright betting and this week there appear to be a couple to take advantage of.
In football, this column currently has bets running on Down in division 3 (though our Limerick wager is dead in the water, albeit after proving their ability at the very wrong time!) and a Kerry and Sligo each way double, which only leaves division 2 to find an interest in – and now seems to be the perfect time.
