Weekend Football preview

January 27th, 2012 by Kevin Egan

DCU’s threat to pull out of the O’Byrne Cup final, though understandable, has led to a re-opening of the debate on the participation of third level teams at this stage of the competition. The very real prospect of a walkover in the final of the Leinster competition would have given nightmares to the marketing department of new sponsors Bórd na Móna, while the bumper crowds in Newbridge the last few weeks undoubtedly focussed the minds too since nobody would have wanted to pass up the opportunity to have 5,000 people pay in to see the game. DCU could have been forgiven for wanting to pull out since after all, the Sigerson Cup is their main aim and the O’Byrne Cup would have been scant consolation if they slipped up against Cork IT in the first round, but the bigger picture was very much taken in here.

The decision to defer that first round tie until Tuesday week has allowed DCU to put in a more meaningful effort on Sunday, and undoubtedly that will bring a lot of the crowds back. Of course it won’t matter a jot, since Kildare are flying right now and will cruise home in this match. Until you see Kildare up close, it’s hard to conceive of quite how fit they are for this time of year. Cutting through DIT and Offaly for a short cut was not that much of a surprise, but they were very dominant against Dublin too and while Dublin undoubtedly had a lot of winter celebration to get out of the system, they won’t have enjoyed losing so comprehensively to one of their main rivals for the All Ireland this year. Paddy Power bookmakers are offering even money about Kildare minus three points on their handicap betting market and that definitely constitutes our first recommendation of the week.

Cork take on Tipperary in a McGrath Cup final that won’t keep the turnstile operators too busy, and while the 1/4 odds look suspiciously like buying money, our gut instinct here is to hold fire. There isn’t any particular basis to this logic, after all Cork’s reserves are an excellent group of footballers – many of them were starting for the county by the time last year’s All Ireland quarter final came around. Nonetheless there’s something unsettling about betting on teams to win at 1/4 in preseason games where the will to win as a team will be a distant second to the will to impress the manager as individuals.

NUIG didn’t get their Sigerson Cup tie postponed and they will host St Mary’s as planned on Wednesday of next week. The incentive of the trip to New York in the Autumn is always enough to keep teams honest here and even though there was no reward for opposing Mayo last week, at the 4/1 on offer from Powers, it’s hard not to do so again. Mayo are going through the motions at this stage and their trip to Portlaoise in the first round of the league is looming large on their schedule. Win and they set themselves up for a real run at a league title, lose and relegation will be an issue almost immediately. 4/1 is generous enough to warrant a small, speculative punt here.

Up north, Tyrone and Derry meet for another renewal of one of the most keenly contested rivalries in Gaelic Football. The vast majority of the Derry football team come from right beside the Tyrone border and if there was only a tin mug at stake, there would be no half measures for Derry in this game. This will be a low scoring, battle of attrition and Derry are on the back of three wins in succession against their neighbours. Ladbrokes and Boyles are each giving us odds against about a Derry win and the draw thrown in for good measure – that’s certainly good enough for us. It’s not that Tyrone will lie down – God knows the competitiveness of Tyrone football has been the subject of much discussion this week – but in this tie, Derry might have a slight edge, both on form and on desire.

Weekend Football Recommendations:

O’Byrne Cup Final: Kildare (-3pts) to beat DCU @ even money (Powers)

FBD League Final: NUIG to beat Mayo @ 4/1 (Powers)

McKenna Cup Final: Derry (+1pt) to beat Tyrone @ 11/10 (Boyles, Ladbrokes)

Sligo sides poised for good start to 2012

January 3rd, 2012 by Kevin Egan

Finally, we’re back. After what seemed like an interminable few weeks with nothing only closed door challenge games to entertain us, the result of most of which you had to be careful to even talk about, official GAA action is back and ready to go once again, starting tomorrow night in the new GAA centre of excellence in Ballyhaunis with a very attractive FBD league double header.

The main college and county teams of Galway are both in action, and in both instances the bookmakers expect the Galway sides to prevail – though all involved, punters and bookies alike, are well aware that it won’t take much money one way or another to move markets in games like this. Galway are between 4/6 (Hills) and 1/2 (Ladbrokes) to beat Sligo IT in the first game, while there is little disparity in the second match with Hills, Ladbrokes and Powers all going either 11/8 or 6/4 about a win for Sligo over NUIG.

Galway have named a very fresh team for their battle with Sligo IT and while they have deployed some experienced players in the diamond section with Gareth Bradshaw, Paul Conroy and Cormac Bane playing at 6, 9 and 11 respectively, Alan Mulholland is clearly looking to give some of his younger players every opportunity to prove themselves in this competition. They’ll certainly get the chance to do just that against Sligo IT, who were very impressive in the higher education league earlier this year. Last year’s preseason competitions featured plenty of college teams getting off to a very strong start and Sligo IT will feel that they are in with every chance against a Galway side with more than a few raw players. The IT face a huge battle to reach the finals weekend of the Sigerson with UCC standing in their way, but at this level they should be capable of going well.

As outsiders, Sligo the county are given even less of a chance against NUIG, and after losing to the Galway university in this competition last year, it’s understandable that the Yeats county are considered underdogs here. However while NUIG will be fancied to go well in the Sigerson Cup this year, particularly as they will have home advantage for the finals, they often keep a little in reserve for Sigerson competition, and have lost some of their older players from last year. Sligo, unlike Galway, are unlikely to dip too deeply into their panel of reserves, simply because they just don’t have that level of depth to call upon. As any supporter of a smaller county will tell you, selection in such counties is a much simpler process usually because bringing in over a dozen new footballers simply isn’t an option. Last year Sligo’s FBD league side was comprised of almost two thirds championship starters and if they employ a similar tactic here, they should be able to stay close to NUIG. The third level students probably deserve slight favouritism here, but punting them at odds on makes little or no appeal.

FBD League Recommendation:

Galway vs Sligo IT: Sligo IT to win @ 15/8 (Ladbrokes)

Sigerson quarters set to go

March 2nd, 2011 by Kevin Egan

Tomorrow’s Sigerson Cup quarter final between Jordanstown and Carlow IT marks the start of one of one of the most eagerly anticipated Sigerson finals in some time, a finals weekend when eight teams instead of four prepare to do battle and three days of top class action.

With Carlow likely to be hopelessly outclassed against the very strong visiting side, this is unlikely to be the best fixture of the weekend, even though it will see plenty of people using Ladbrokes’ price of 2/11 as a coupon builder. Normally this column isn’t a big fan of that tactic, but in this instance it’s just too hard to see anything but a Jordanstown win. Carlow got here by way of a home win over Athlone IT and there aren’t too many more Sigerson teams that they could have beaten. They will be the first team to exit the competition. Short odds backers could be forgiven for being a bit nervous after today’s unbelievable scenes in Bangalore, but it’s all about value and this one looks like great value to sneak home.

At 1.45pm Maynooth meet UL in the trickiest match to call of the four taking place. Ladbrokes have installed UL as 8/11 favourites but on the face of it, this doesn’t necessarily add up. Yes UL beat DIT, but Maynooth’s win over Queens University was no less impressive and even though a lot of people mightn’t have known who Michael Newman was before that match, they certainly do now. The Kilmainham attacker is in fantastic form, seen again in the Under 21 championship last week. While UL have to be respected, the chaos that was their preparations is still likely to take a toll and Maynooth have every right to believe in their ability to reach a second successive Sigerson semi final. This should be an even game, maybe even 10/11 Maynooth.

DCU will be widely expected to see off the challenge of UCC at 3pm and while the Corkmen shouldn’t be underestimated, DCU look way too strong. The Glasnevin university have been the favourites for this competition from the start and their line up would be worthy of any inter-county competition. This is a banana skin fixture, but ultimately the UCC attack looks a little too lightweight for this level of football and it’s difficult to see Daithí Casey and Kevin O’Driscoll matching the high powered DCU front six score for score. As a general rule, defensive play is crucial in college football and UCC won’t lack for defensive strength, but at the end of the day you can’t beat a team like DCU only scoring nine or ten times, unless you hit a lot of goals. 1/3 is a fair price, the Magic Sign appear to be spot on here.

From a betting point of view and perhaps from a neutral, football supporting point of view, by far the most attractive tie is the late throw in between home college UCD and NUIG. These two sides both put in a very solid campaigns in the pre-season competitions, however UCD will have a much stronger hand to pick from tomorrow with Donie Kingston, Rory O’Carroll and Cian O’Sullivan all available for selection this time around. That extra depth should prove crucial, and with home advantage they look like an excellent value bet at 4/5.

NUIG have an extra gear from January as well and John Maughan’s men, with the help of Alan Dillon, cannot be taken for granted. Nonetheless the absence of Neil Douglas’ energy and movement is a blow, while there are still question marks over the NUIG half back line from a defensive standpoint. There are excellent midfielders on both sides and the battle between Westmeath stars John Heslin and Denis Corroon will be watched with interest by Pat Flanagan, however even break even for NUIG probably won’t be good enough with UCD likely to score heavily off any possession that they secure. This is the best value bet of this competition so far and anything above 8/15 or 4/7 is well worth taking.

Sligo at home the Sigerson bet

February 17th, 2011 by Kevin Egan

In the past, the Sigerson Cup has been a very happy hunting ground for this column. The third level competition was often forgotten about by the national media, as a result many bookmakers offered bets on the competition while somewhat blinded by the lack of information.

The same couldn’t be said to be the case in 2011 with plenty of coverage for college games, so as a result there aren’t too many games standing out as ridiculously good value – nonetheless there are one or two eye catchers among what should be an excellent card of matches all across the country.

The meeting of Cork IT and UUJ is expected to go the way of the Northern University, but the Cork college have a decent midfield and half forward sector and can dominate possession here. UUJ didn’t get their usual solitary win in the McKenna Cup and while they looked good against Tyrone, they really should have sneaked a result against either Fermanagh or Donegal if they were good enough.They might do enough to win here but we wouldn’t back them at 4/7.

Athlone IT’s trip to Carlow IT won’t be making any headlines since neither of these colleges will be expected to achieve anything, however for the purposes of betting, one could only side with the Westmeath college. They were appalling against Louth in the O’Byrne Cup but they did put in a very solid league campaign and have a few very nice footballers dotted around the park. Carlow IT have struggled to make an impression in recent years and while they will look on this as a winnable fixture, Ladbrokes’ 4/6 about the visitors looks very decent.

DIT host UL in what should be the most one-sided fixture of the round. DIT possess a very strong group of footballers while UL’s preparations appear to have been somewhat less than ideal. A couple of seasons ago UL were capable of going places but they passed up a glorious opportunity to knock over UCD when Ciarán Lyng single handed carried the Donnybrook college over the line and since then things have gone backwards. With or without Paul Galvin, there is only one possible winner of this tie.

The meeting between NUI Maynooth and Queens University is undoubtedly the toughest game to call of the seven taking place today. Maynooth didn’t take part in the O’Byrne Cup and only made a half hearted attempt at the league – yet they have a few nice footballers and made a good run at this competition last year. Queens have been very solid and if they play well, they could win this with plenty to spare. Nonetheless it is a journey into the unknown to a certain degree and no matter what the winning margin in the end, 2/5 is too short a price, unless you’re on the inside and you can confirm that Maynooth aren’t putting any effort in – in which case feel free to share the wisdom!!

St Mary’s looked like a very promising group this year under Paddy Tally, but they failed to deliver on that promise in the McKenna Cup and they look to be hugely outgunned against DCU today. DCU don’t deserve to be as short as they are in the outright betting, but they are a cut above the Ulster teaching college and will win at home.

UCC’s footballers meet GMIT two days after their hurlers beat GMIT in the Fitzgibbon cup by eight points and a similar result is likely here. GMIT have a couple of nice players from all along the Western Seaboard but UCC have too much power around the middle with Johnny Buckley at midfield and Daithí Casey at centre forward likely to cause havoc. 1/4 is probably more than short enough, however a repeat of two years ago when GMIT beat UCC in Galway in the first round of this competition looks unlikely. GMIT have replaced most of their team since then and this group looks much weaker than the class containing Niall Darby, Tom Cunniffe, Donie Shine and Paul Conroy.

Finally NUIG travel to Sligo IT in what will be a repeat fixture from earlier this year. NUIG won the FBD league game between the two colleges by a single point and having been in attendance that day, this writer is unsure of why NUIG are entitled to be 8/13 favourites. Certainly this isn’t a great IT Sligo team, but they have a few strong performers around the middle of the field and enough forwards to generate a winning total. NUIG are a little craftier but very physically light in the forward line and away from home they might just find it tough going. IT Sligo plus one point at 6/5 on Ladbrokes handicap betting is probably the bet of the day.

Drive a Mitzy to the Fitzy

February 15th, 2011 by Kevin Egan

After a somewhat disappointing opening to the national hurling league, where the draw between Waterford and Dublin was probably the only really exciting fixture of the eight games played in the top two divisions, today there is some top class hurling on offer from the Fitzgibbon Cup, with four quarter finals being played all across Ireland and several big name stars in action.

Neutral followers will undoubtedly gravitate towards the meeting of Limerick IT and NUIG in Limerick, with the 2011 second favourites taking on the 2010 champions.

Nonetheless at 1/3 for today’s game, there is no value in punting Limerick IT. NUIG had a very poor run in the group stages, but they still have a good chunk of last year’s team available to them and on their day, they could very easily give the Limerick college plenty to think about. This game is actually ripe for an ambush as the Galway students really have something to prove here, and no opponent better fits the bill for that task than the highly rated IT students. Limerick IT deserve to be favourites, but at 13/5 you’d have to take NUIG for betting purposes.

NUIG’s neighbour college GMIT are also at home today to UCC and again, it’s hard to justify the favourites being so short in the betting. Yes GMIT have achieved very little in this competition and UCC have a strong team, but in Galway on soft ground, this is a very tough assignment for the Cork University. They have the reputation but hurler for hurler, they aren’t that strong and odds of 1/10 defy belief. If this turns into a freeflowing game with both sides getting scores easily then there’s only one winner, but looking out the window it’s hard to see that as likely. 11/2 about a home dog in a dogfight? Yes please.

Continuing the trend, Cork IT are also very prohibitively priced for their meeting with St Pats college, though if we were forced to pick one favourite that looks very solid, that would be the Cork college. St Pats don’t look to have a strong team this year and with home advantage for the Cork students, this does look like 1/7 is justified. We wouldn’t say for a minute to have seven grand to win one and Cork IT don’t look to have the power to go further than the semi final stage, but nonetheless there just isn’t the firepower in the St Pats ranks to suggest that an upset here is likely.

Finally we have outright favourites UL, who drew the short straw when it came to playing group runners up, in that they got the very dangerous UCD as opponents. To come second in a group involving Waterford IT and Limerick IT was no mean feat for UCD and with a good solid group of Kilkenny hurlers backboning their team, they simply have to be respected in this fixture.

UL’s heavyweight teamsheet has seen them installed as 7/4 favourites by Ladbrokes and even at that, the Magic Sign are offering best price in the market. Naysayers are pointing to the fact that they could easily have come a cropper against UCC in the first round, but that was without Shane Dooley among others, and while Offaly hurling is at an all time low, the Tullamore man is an elite hurler and would be with any county. He has earned the right to be considered alongside Canning as the most dangerous player in this competition.

If UL are firing on all cylinders they will win this, but they will need to be at their best and as any follower of UL hurling will tell you, they’ve let slip a few golden opportunities in the past. There are better value outsiders hurling today so we won’t recommend a bet on UCD, but we wouldn’t be shocked to hear of an upset in Limerick either.

Colleges unconcerned for Crystal

January 20th, 2011 by Kevin Egan

Hurling enthusiasts will undoubtedly be looking forward to this weekend and their first chance to get a look at Kilkenny, Cork and Galway, as well as several other county and college sides. Tipperary’s debut last week wouldn’t have been a sign of encouragement for most punters to get stuck into the other three market leading counties, however things are slightly different this week with Fitzgibbon Cup games looming on Thursday.

Kilkenny play NUIG and based on NUIG’s performance last week, this should be a competitive fixture. It was an appallingly poor side that Joe Dooley sent out to represent Offaly, however the fitness and power that NUIG showed inthe second half suggests that they will be a force in the Fitzgibbon Cup, while a repeat performance would cause Kilkenny a lot of problems on Saturday in Ballyraggett. This is also allowing for the Cats missing their students, the O’Loughlins players and presumably a couple more besides.

Odds of 1/6 from Ladbrokes are a clear indication that the Magic Sign feel that NUIG will not be sending down their first string hurlers and while this column feels that 1/6 might be a bit of an over-reaction, it’s still not worth backing NUIG with such uncertainty prevalent. Their Fitzgibbon cup group with Cork IT and DIT is a real minefield and the current holders won’t want to take any chances by giving players too much playing time against Kilkenny.

Cork play UCC in Páirc Uí Rinn with UCC also having just four days to prepare for their meeting with UL in the Fitzgibbon. With DCU also in the same group, realistically both these universities will be playing in the Fitz quarter finals, however the winner of this fixture is likely to be guaranteed a home draw, and a quarter final fixture against another group runner up as opposed to a winner. UCC played some good hurling in a competitve league group this year and are entitled to consider themselves as genuine contenders for the Fitzgibbon, so in a similar vein to NUIG above, they could expect to compete well with Cork if they lined out with all their main stars. However that may not be the case on Sunday. The absence of any travelling is likely to be a boost for them and the odds of 15/8 reflect that, but even so they couldn’t be backed with any great degree of confidence.

Galway could be in for a more competitive fixture against DIT as the Dublin college have no Fitzgibbon game this week, and thus could easily put a lot more effort into what will be an excellent challenge for them against John McIntyre’s men. The ridiculous amount of depth in Galway hurling means that they tend to be strong at any time of year, as evidenced by their win in this competition last year. The fixing of the game for Ballinasloe will also be a boost as Duggan Park is a very familiar venue to this Galway panel and will suit the more powerful county hurlers in what could be a tricky tie.

DIT were not a college traditionally associated with hurling but they have come on in leaps and bounds over the past couple of years and with a significant Kilkenny contingent on board, there is every reason to respect them. Certainly there is no logic to backing Galway at 1/4.

Limerick IT are also on a bye week in the Fitzgibbon and thus will be expected to put a lot of focus into their Waterford Crystal cup meeting with Clare. Clare looked very poor last week against Tralee IT and with so many of their better players involved with college teams, particularly NUIG, they should continue to struggle. LIT don’t look as strong this year as they have done in previous campaigns, however they still should have more than enough in the tank to overcome this Clare side who badly need their younger hurlers back.

Crystal Cup runneth over

January 14th, 2011 by Kevin Egan

So far, it’s been a strong 2011 for third level teams, most of which exceeded their expectations in the first round of the pre-season football competitions. No games took place in Ulster and the two colleges in Connacht faced off against each other so little could be ascertained in those provinces, however in Leinster there were good wins for DCU, UCD and DIT, with UCD winning at odds against and the other two colleges winning with a lot more to spare than was expected to be the case. Athlone IT let the side down spectacularly, but otherwise followers of college teams had a good start to their betting year.

In Munster neither UCC nor IT Tralee got off to the winning start that they had hoped for, but UCC could easily have got a win over Clare and were only one score off the pace in their tie, while IT Tralee put in a very good display against Kerry and proved that rumours of their re-emergence as a force have some foundation.

This week it’s the turn of the college hurling teams to prove their worth and Ladbrokes currently have prices on three of the games this weekend that feature third level institutions.

This rising tide for college teams was somewhat expected since the ongoing economic crisis in Ireland means that many GAA stars in their mid twenties have been unable to find work. For some, this has meant getting on a plane to Australia, Canada or New Zealand, but for others it has meant a return to education. As a result, most colleges have found a couple of strong hurlers to bolster their ranks who would normally be long past Fitzgibbon and Sigerson age.

That said, at least two of the three games offered by Ladbrokes appear to be priced as to take no chances with the colleges.

Cork IT against Kerry tomorrow is the kind of game that most bookies would be happy to take no bet on, however there is every chance that the Magic Sign will see some interest in their 12/5 about the Kingdom for this game. Kerry were probably the county that made the most improvement in 2010, and from a base where they would have been worried about relegation to the Nicky Rackard Cup, they will now be going into 2011 as leading contenders for the Christy Ring Cup, and in the long run a possible return to the Munster championship. They hurled well in this competition last year and were relatively unlucky to lose out to UL on a 3-15 to 1-15 scoreline. They competed for long stretches of that game, and that was against a UL team containing John Devane, Paddy Stapleton, Kieran Joyce, Dylan Hayden, Andrew Quinn, Seamus Hickey, Ryan O’Dwyer and Shane Dooley.

Kerry manager John Meyler is also in a very good position for this game as he is a lecturer in Cork IT who has been involved with their freshers teams, and thus he’ll know his opponents very well. Perhaps the most interesting aspect however is the fact that Cork IT also have a challenge match arranged against Oulart the Ballagh for Sunday. The word on the grapevine is that they will be using their first string players in the challenge game, and sending their second stringers down to Tralee. That may or may not turn out to be true, but even if it wasn’t, 12/5 about Kerry would be worth a small bet. Nonetheless it might be worth increasing the stakes ever so slightly just in case there turns out to be some substance to that rumour.

15/8 about NUIG is another price which on the surface might seem appealing, but in reality offers little or no value. NUIG have not given this competition too much attention in the past and bowed out meekly to Dublin last year. Offaly are also in the relatively happy position of having most of their first team available due to having relatively few college students in the panel. They limped past DIT at this stage last year, however that same Offaly team turned around and beat Kilkenny in the next round. They make  return to traditional hurling country by hosting this game in Banagher and unless the students really dial up the intensity, this should be a home win.NUIG could win this if they focused their efforts on doing so, but there is no reason to believe that they will.

** Edit @ 2:20pm Friday: In a move that has surprised most observers in Offaly, Joe Dooley has taken a new tack and named an extremely young team for this game. It’s very possible that NUIG will still send down a weaker team, but some of the players that have been named for Offaly haven’t even played under 21 yet and unless NUIG really phone it in, it could be a very competitive. NUIG aren’t the kind of team to be trusted and Joe Dooley has all his heavyweight players available to call on from the bench, but expect the odds to close in before tomorrow afternoon.

Perhaps the most appealing students are those at the biggest price of all – Waterford IT, 3/1 with Ladbrokes to knock over All Ireland champions Tipperary. This Waterford IT team is solid but unspectacular and doesn’t have the star power that was within their lineup in some of the years gone by, however they are believed to be preparing quite well.  Certainly the same could not be said for Tipperary, who only arrived back in from their team holiday earlier this week. Tipperary have no need to be competitive at this time of year and manager Declan Ryan will not worry too much about how his team performs in Clonmel. They could get through this hurling from memory alone and chances are WIT are just a little too lightweight to take full advantage, however there’s simply no sense taking any chances on the Premier men at the ludicrously short odds of 2/9.

Seven crucial exams for college teams tomorrow

February 2nd, 2010 by Kevin Egan

Wednesday afternoon at 2pm might not be a time of day when many people have free time on their hands, but if you do happen to be at a loose end tomorrow, there are seven games taking place in the Sigerson Cup all around the country with some top quality games on offer. The Sigerson competition has traditionally been very good to this column and in the spirit of trying to continue that good run, here’s a quick rundown on the full card of action, with a view towards isolating the value.

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GAA could do with studying Sky

January 29th, 2010 by Kevin Egan

The world of soccer since the advent of Sky Sports is a very different environment to that which existed back in the seventies and eighties, and though some of the changes, such as the obsession with club finances and the lack of physical contact, may not appeal to everyone, no-one can argue that the games suffer from a lack of exposure or promotion. Indeed such has been the complete absorption of the media into the sport (or the sport into the media?) that it can be difficult to escape the constant barrage of team news and indeed player scandal, even when one has no interest in any of their affairs.

Though the GAA has evolved in the last few decades as well, most would say that the changes brought about have been largely for the better and introduced gradually, causing no real shock to the system. However one aspect where the administrators really need to take a look at themselves is in the area of marketing.

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The Students have become the Studied

February 4th, 2009 by Kevin Egan

Following on from yesterday’s post, it appears that our site sponsors and a few other concerns have burst into life and priced up today’s Sigerson Cup clashes. Third level competitions are notoriously difficult to gauge correctly until every team has put some form on the board, but even allowing for the inherent unpredictability of these sides, there still looks to be a few games where the bookies’ choice for favouritism is somewhat suspect to say the least.

Obviously one can assume that whichever oddsmaker took the lead, any of those who followed would have strongly tempered their opinion and largely fallen into line, however it’s still somewhat surprising that in such a large vacuum of information, there hasn’t been more disparity of opinion. For what it’s worth, here is a brief rundown of the games as this column can see them.

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