Anyone looking at the formlines of the two teams taking part in tomorrow’s Leinster club football semi final could be forgiven for thinking that a similar outcome was a distinct possibility, simply because the Laois champions have been hugely underwhelming since coming out of Laois for the fifth time in a row this year. St Brigid’s, in contrast, have been in scintillating form, putting Meath champions Summerhill to the sword with ease and overcoming the handicap of the concession of three first half goals against Horeswood, including one resulting from an uncharacteristic error from goalkeeper Shane Supple.

After his heroics in the Dublin championship, the least Supple deserved was to have his team-mates bail him out of trouble in that instance and the Blanchardstown club did exactly that, running up an incredible total of 1-20 against the Wexford champions, an incredible total in an hour of November football. That they bailed out out handicap recommendation of minus six in the process was a nice bonus! Indeed 1-20 would be an impressive total even if it happened in Croke Park in July over seventy minutes of play, so the Dublin champions certainly took a significant step towards dispelling the notion that their presence at this stage of the championship is almost exclusively down to their defensive prowess.

However despite all this, Portlaoise are not the sort of team that we dismiss lightly. They are, after all, the most successful club in Leinster competition and their players are well used to taking part at this time of year. They’ve struggled to get the most out of their very potent inside forward line so far this year and their decision to play Paul Cahillane as a roving player just in front of the midfield seems like an odd decision when he is by far the biggest threat for goal in the team, even if his passing from that sector has been sublime. However the return of Colm Parkinson to the fold has added a bit more potency in front of goal and Craig Rogers, club captain this year, rounds off a full forward line that would be competitive at county level, never mind in a club championship.

Where Portlaoise should struggle to compete however is at midfield. The Laois county champions haven’t had a strong, dominant middle man for nearly a decade now and the news that Adrian Kelly is battling injury certainly doesn’t bode well. Native Laois man John O’Loughlin will be relishing this challenge and there is a real danger that he and Barry Cahill will run all over his Portlaoise midfield, just as Louth midfielder Paddy Keenan did for St Patricks earlier in this Leinster campaign.

Portlaoise had the upper hand in enough battles around the rest of the field to overcome that handicap against St Patricks – it’s unlikely that they will be able to defy the odds as easily in Parnell Park.

If Portlaoise do fall behind in this fixture, they are unlikely to panic since they have the experience to know that they’ve come back from deficits before, however one of their possible tactical switches in that situation would be to move Brian “Bruno” McCormack to full forward, where he would lend a little physicality to the exchanges at the edge of the square. If Portlaoise are forced to bypass the centre of midfield and use the flanks a lot, this becomes even more likely since too much running and handpassing down the wings would give time for the Brigids midfielders and half forwards to funnel back and clog up the space in front of goal. An occasional high ball would be required in this situation and that’s where McCormack comes in.

Ladbrokes go 16/1 about McCormack to score the first or last goal, and while that would be a fair price if he spent the full game at centre forward, the very real possibility of a switch into the edge of the square makes this a very attractive bet.

St Brigids vs Portlaoise Tips:

Match Betting: St Brigids @ 4/5 (Hills)

Last Goalscorer: Brian McCormack 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

Portlaoise and Kilmacud Crokes would be similarly respected in a Leinster context and on paper, it’s difficult to separate these two heavyweight contenders this weekend. Between them they’ve won four of the last six Leinster titles, and both clubs are packed with talent to the point that the absence of top class players and former All star nominees like Aidan Fennelly and Paul Griffin hasn’t been a barrier to domestic success.

Portlaoise looked to be in unstoppable form as the Laois championship progressed and the concession of a combined total of 2-3 in their semi final and quarter final matches suggested that their showdown with Arles Kilcruise was likely to be a little bit one sided. This turned out to be anything but the case and it took a late goal from Paul Cahillane to sneak a 1-8 to 0-8 victory against the Carlow border club. However any notions of a dip in form were blown away by their 2-11 to 0-14 win in a very high class first round win over Moorefield of Kildare.

If Portlaoise hadn’t come through that difficult tie, it would be easy to see why Kilmacud would be favourites here, but with the reigning Leinster champions having proven themselves to be very definitely in form, there is simply no excuse for 5/4 being available about a home win. Zach Tuohy’s return from Australia has given them another very potent attacking weapon, they have a very cohesive and tough defence built around two outstanding central players in Cahir Healy and Tipperary’s Hugh Coghlan and while they may concede a little ground to Crokes around the middle of the field, they are used to using O’Moore Park’s wide expanses to minimise any deficit in that area. However even in that regard, news of a potential injury to Niall Corkery would greatly diminish Crokes’ perceived advantage in that sector.

A quick look at Kilmacud’s teamsheet serves as an easy reminder as to why the Stillorgan club are so well fancied in provincial competition, but a lot of their star names don’t perform with any real consistency. In the last four rounds of the Dublin senior championship, Brian Kavanagh was the only Crokes forward who scored more than a single point in more than one of those games. Barry O’Rorke kicked 0-4 in the semi final, Mark Vaughan scored 1-2 in the final while Pat Burke and Ray Cosgrove each scored 0-3 against St Sylvesters, but none of these players were able to repeat that form. Kavanagh will have a real tough test against Cahir Healy and if the Longford man can be closed down, Crokes could be in real trouble here.

Of course Kilmacud have to be respected and by no stretch of the imagination would a win for the Dublin champions be a shock, but their valuation as 4/5 favourites away from home against a team with a good Leinster championship win under their belts reeks of the bookmakers getting a little bit of glitter in their eyes from looking at their teamsheet. Portlaoise are well capable of securing a result here, and at 10/11 plus one point on the handicap betting, they make even more appeal. This column would suggest a 3pt bet at that price, with the additional proviso to add two further points to the stake if the rumours on Hill16.ie about Ross O’Carroll not making it home turn out to be true.

The battle hardened men from the Banner County were definitely underestimated this year in a Munster context, but it should not be forgotten that this was a Munster championship shorn of any leading contender along the lines of a Dr. Crokes or a Nemo Rangers flagship team. The first round against Dromcollogher Broadford was probably the most likely game in which Kilmurry could have slipped up and once they negotiated that challenge, they were unlikely to miss out on their Munster crown.

The Clare champions also came very close to suffering the fate of being the first Irish provincial champion to fall in Ruislip, but a scrappy goal got them over the line against a Tír Chonaill Gaels team who will always regret blowing such a golden opportunity. There are no more soft touches left for them now though with only the elite club teams remaining – and Kilmurry simply aren’t in that league. They play Portlaoise this weekend in the Gaelic Grounds, but even if it were Corofin or St. Galls on the agenda, the verdict would be the same – this is simply a bridge too far for a committed but limited side.

Laois football may be at a low ebb as the legacy of the Mick O’Dwyer era starts to manifest itself, but even in the worst of times for Laois football, the townies were always a force to be reckoned with and they appear to be as strong as ever this year. The fixing of this tie for the Gaelic Grounds may appear to favour the Clare men and gepographically it is a ridiculous choice with Thurles lying idle on Sunday, but the wide open expanses of the Ennis Road venue are unlikely to suit the hard grafters of Kilmurry who, rumour has it, had been hoping to get the game fixed for Nenagh. The suspension of wing back Declan Callinan, another trial-by-television disiplinary decision, will also hurt the Munster champions. Portlaoise have been playing well in challenge matches and if they come close to their true form, they should cover the three point spread. A 2pt bet on Portlaoise minus three points at 6/5 is the recommendation.

Also staying with the same game, the bookmakers are breaking new ground with a price of 5/2 about no goals in the match. This would suggest a goal expectancy of 1.1 or 1.2 for the game, which is extremely low by any normal measure. KIB don’t score or concede goals freely, indeed their three Munster championship matches were all goal-less, but this is Portlaoise they are facing, who do rattle the twines frequently enough. The relatively unheralded Paul Cahillane is their main goal threat and the reason he is not as well known as he could be is because he has recently returned from a stint at Celtic and his time playing soccer has fine tuned his eye for goal. He is without question the main goalscoring threat on this team and at 7/1, two 1pt bets on Paul Cahillane to score the first and last goal of the game are definitely in order.

Looking briefly to the second semi final, this column is carrying in an antepost each way position on Corofin and despite the groundswell of opinion that St. Galls are the worthy favourites, I still fancy the Galway champions to progress. There is very little in between these two excellent teams and if the Galls attack can score at anything like the frequency they usually do, they’ll win this game handily because Corofin just don’t have fourteen or fifteen scores in them. Nonetheless, Corofin will take to the field armed with the best club defence in Ireland and they can suffocate and frustrate a Galls forward unit which is high on class but not always big into graft. Conservative types may wish to cover their positions here, but at the prices offered there is simply no value, so we wouldn’t recommend it.

Austin Stack Park in Tralee is one venue which has traditionally held up reasonably well in the face of adverse weather conditions, but unless the predicted rain for tomorrow fails to materialise, even that match could come under pressure. Having said all that, if the games do take place, then there may be a little bit of value in the goals markets that have been priced up.

Assuming that any games which do go ahead do so in very inclement conditions, it’s reasonably safe to say that there is unlikely to be any high scoring encounters. That said, wet and mucky conditions lead to considerably less points being scored, but the number of goals is not always affected in the same way. While the slower movement of the ball can take a toll in that it becomes much more difficult to hit teams on the break and create match ups with corner forwards going one on one with their markers, while heavy ground tends to suit the backsman anyway, different chances can come about from players making mistakes, struggling to catch or control high deliveries. The number of good goals scored is likely to be quite low, but that doesn’t always equate to a drop in the number of goals of any type.

With regard to using this information, the game that stands out by a mile is the meeting of Portlaoise and Clara, and the 10/11 available about more than 1.5 goals in this encounter. Portlaoise’s scoring statistics this season have been phenomenal and their attack is functioning exceptionally well, but equally a lot of Clara’s strength lies in their full forward line and they too could cause problems. Clara’s most recent win over Rathvilly broke a five game streak in which they scored at least one goal in every game, and while Portlaoise are an exceptional team, they are by no means exceptional at keeping out good goalscorers.

This is a game where both sides are more than likely going to get in for at least one goal, and at 10/11, the statistics definitely favour getting behind two or more goals in this match. A 2pt bet is recommended.

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Of those more likely to be considered by people looking for steady, dependable teams, Rathnew plus three points at 6/5 is probably the most attractive of the outsiders on offer. However Rathnew are already recommended at 3/1 as a match bet in this column and we’re happy with that position, there is no need to overdo it. That said, those who like to play the game a little bit more conservatively, and who haven’t already gone in on the match betting, might like to pay close attention to this price. Derrygonnelly at 4/5 plus four is also a justifiable bet with Loup unlikely to open up, however 4/5 is quite short and perhaps robs the value out of this one.

Glencar/Manorhamilton plus four is simply not a good bet as there is a gulf in quality between the Leitrim champions and their Galway counterparts. Corofin would only have to play at 70% capacity to win by more than a goal here and this is actually one game where, even allowing for the injury to Alan O’Donovan, one could buck the trend and go with the favourites.

However instead, we’re going to look at Portlaoise minus three, priced at 5/6. Of all the handicap bets out there, no matter what the weather, this one stands out. Portlaoise have been hugely impressive this season, and though the loss of Zach Tuohy due his travelling to Australia robs them of a very lively half forward, they are still very well placed to advance here. Seneschalstown only won their county championship last Thursday night after two very hard fought games against Wolfe Tones, and it would require a superhuman effort for their players to be fit to compete to the full of their ability this Sunday. Obviously the celebrations will have been put on hold, that’s not the concern, but quite simply it’s too soon after a really difficult challenge to be trying to step up another level again, against what is almost certainly the best football team in the Leinster Championship.

With Portlaoise also enjoying home advantage, they can win this with plenty to spare. There is no danger of Seneschalstown collapsing in the manner that Mattock Rangers did, however they are still likely to be five or six points in arrears by the end of tomorrow’s game. A 3pt bet on Portlaoise minus three points at 5/6 is the recommendation.

There are some caveats to this rule to be borne in mind all the same. De la Salle came from nowhere last year, but the important point was that their first game was against a similarly inexperienced outfit, and their narrow win over Sarsfields suddenly left them in a Munster decider. If a new team can get a run going, then they can often cause a shock, but without that launching pad, they have little or no hope.

This year’s Leinster club football championship is an interesting renewal, with a good mix of different types of clubs. Without question the blue chip club are Portlaoise, recent winners of this title and very regular competitors at this stage. Rathnew, Garrycastle and Clonguish are all competing in this tournament having played in it before, and they will each be difficult opponents. There would be question marks over the quality of each of these teams in terms of actually winning a provincial title, but the fact to bear in mind here is that Ballyboden St Endas will have to beat two of these three teams to reach a Leinster final.

Dublin clubs are often another exception to this rule since the standard of the Dublin championship is higher than most others (albeit largely due to imported players) and metropolitan representatives have been known to progress at the first attempt. However Ballyboden would be comparitively weak as Dublin champions go – certainly not on the same level as St Vincents and Kilmacud in 2007 and 2008 – and they will be further hamstrung by the travails of their hurlers. Certainly the last thing that the football men in the club wanted was a draw in last Sunday’s Dublin SHC semi-final.

If there were an exchange market, Ballyboden at 15/8 would be a huge lay. Home advantage will be a help to them against Rathnew as Wicklow clubs are traditionally a very different proposition at home, however they are no certainties in that match, while a likely away trip to Athlone or Mullingar to face Garrycastle will see them put to the pin of their collar.

On the other side of the draw, Clara are typical of the kind of club who do not have the immediate pedigree, but who could grow into the competition. Their win last weekend was extremely impressive and indeed but for some poorer shooting, they could have won by more. They should account for Rathvilly, even allowing for the Carlow club’s potential dominance around the middle of the field now that Brendan Murphy has returned to their ranks.

However meeting Portlaoise in a semi-final, particularly in O’Moore Park, looks like a much bigger ask altogether. Rhode did well to beat Portlaoise last year, but that was in O’Connor Park and when Portlaoise weren’t playing quite as well as they are now. The margin of their win over Mattock Rangers was eye-opening to say the least, and right now it’s very difficult to see the Laois club being stopped. Certainly if they are to be stopped, it’s unlikely to be by the Meath representatives, and that’s even assuming that their championship gets completed under the pressure of Navan O’Mahonys’ objections.

Realistically, while Ballyboden could win this competition, they are no value whatsoever and the smart money will oppose them. Portlaoise at 6/4 are very much the front runners and well worth a 4pt stake, while a 0.5pt saver on Garrycastle at 16/1 would also be a worthwhile investment. This works out at combined odds of just under 6/5, and to be honest anything over even money about this pair would be very good value. If the Gods of fortune smiled on Clara they could cause an upset, but at 10/1 with an away trip to Portlaoise to come, they are no value whatsoever right now, while realistically only Ballyboden of the other teams could come through.

Of course from a betting perspective, October is still October – which means the latter stages of county championships and looking forward to provincial campaigns. And though it’s not the nicest perspective for all those clubs out there trying to make the breakthrough, the simple fact is that breakthroughs in club championships are hard earned, and the old dogs don’t go down easy. Of course they do go down – witness the demise of such stalwarts as Crossmaglen, Nemo Rangers, Ballinderry, and Mayobridge already this year.

Last weekend saw Birr and Toomevara bite the dust in the small ball code also, and it would be hard to find two clubs who are more synonymous with Winter hurling.

Portlaoise are not quite at that level, at least in hurling, but they are a proven team who have been there or thereabouts in Laois for some time now. Their win over Castletown in the semi-final was the kind of form that their opponents on Sunday, Clough-Ballacolla, simply haven’t matched so far this year and they are entitled to be favourites for this Sunday’s county final, and should be shorter than the 4/5 currently available.

The dual status of the club won’t help matters as the town football team is also going strong, but Portlaoise have dealt with this very well so far this year and there’s no reason why it would suddenly become an obstacle now. Indeed when teams get on a roll like this, one sport can often energise the other, and after the footballers secured a 3-18 to 0-9 win over a club that would have been regarded as big rivals earlier this decade last weekend, it would be amazing if the hurlers weren’t on a high as well.

A 3pt bet on Portlaoise to beat Clough-Ballacolla at 4/5 is the best option for this weekend, and should be taken relatively quickly as this price is likely to move before Sunday.

It would also be remiss if an Offalyman such as myself was not to give a mention to the Offaly county final between Rhode and Clara, though unfortunately, it appears that the bookies have called this one reasonably accurately. Unlike Kilmacud, who had to be back in action very quickly after their All Ireland campaign, Rhode had the benefit of a much later start to the season and didn’t have to kick a ball in the championship until July. They hit their stride fairly quickly and their semi-final win over Shamrocks was very impressive in two different ways. When things weren’t going well for Rhode, they hung in well and slowly chipped away at Shamrocks’ early lead, and when they did click into gear early in the second half, they demolished good opponents in jig time.

Despite the absence of Niall Darby due to a cruciate ligament injury, Rhode appear to be at or close to their level of play from 2008, however they are still very short at 2/7.

Clara may not be a team well known to those outside of Offaly, but they have a lot of the ingredients needed to cause Rhode real problems. They have a devastating inside line who can score well off scraps of possession, they have oodles of self-belief – indeed some would say too much – and they have a manager who is tactically very astute in Pat Flanagan. Now no amount of planning makes it easy to curtail a forward of Niall McNamee’s ability, particularly when Flanagan is working with a defence with no county players, however an upset here is quite possible. At 3/1, Clara are not quite big enough to be recommended, but they certainly should not be opposed.