Despite their usual policy of focusing on county finals, TG4 have decided to forego their option of broadcasting the Galway hurling final this weekend, instead sending their cameras up to Armagh for the intriguing battle between Crossmaglen Rangers and St Galls. Hurling supporters will undoubtedly crib about how their sport is again coming off second best to football in the broadcasting stakes, but such sporting bias aside, it’s easy to see why the station felt that the Ulster club quarter final was the more appealing fixture.

It’s a long time since Crossmaglen Rangers went into any football match as underdogs, though the last meeting between these two clubs in the 2007 Ulster Final was perceived to be an even game and may have seen Cross at 11/10 in places. However to find the last time Rangers were outright underdogs, one probably has to go back ten years to when they were slight outsiders in the All Ireland club final against Na Fianna of Glasnevin. On that occasion the money came very heavily for the Dublin champions but Crossmaglen gave the bookies a great pay day by taking the Andy Merrigan Cup. Now they are odds against this weekend and there is no doubt that there will be more than a little tingle of excitement in the dressing room at the prospect of proving the oddsmakers, and the heavy odds on punters, wrong once again.

A winter off from playing inter-provincial football was no harm for a team that has been as long on the go as Cross. Their narrow margin of victory in the last two rounds of the Armagh championship, though not a sign of a team on top form, is hardly a concern for a club that always prided itself on getting in front and defending with a zeal not matched since some Chinese military experts decided to erect a large wall.

However, they will still have to conjure up a dozen scores and the continued suspension of Jamie Clarke is a big worry. Stephen Kernan is playing wonderful football at centre forward and he will create openings, while Kyle Carragher showed great potential when he came on and scored three points in the county final. Nonetheless the concern is that despite Tony McEntee’s return, Galls will hold the upper hand at midfield and enjoy much more possession. CJ McGourty is a mercurial player who performs wonderfully well for his club and given the type of service he’s likely to enjoy, Galls can edge this tie, albeit at odds that make little appeal bearing in mind the risk of a draw.

Clontibret are also marginally fancied to win out away from home, and their odds of 5/6 are far more attractive in the circumstances. The Monaghan champions struggled to get over Magheracloone in the Farney county decider, but they know that this year represents a huge opportunity for them to reach an Ulster final at the very least. Donegal teams have an atrocious record in this competition and Naomh Conaill’s win over Kingscourt Stars, with all due respect to the Cavan champions, proves nothing. Magheracloone had Tommy Freeman – the Glenties men offer no such threat. Clontibret are very well priced and should be backed to a 4pt stake at the 5/6 on offer.

Roslea are also down to travel away from home, though Healy Park is probably an equidistant journey for both themselves and Coalisland this weekend. Both these clubs have gone over two decades since winning their previous county title and neither club will be expected to last too long in this competition. However the Tyrone champions appear to be installed as 1/3 favourites for this fixture for no reason other than their county of origin. It goes without saying that the general standard of Tyrone football is much higher than that in Fermanagh, but Roslea Shamrocks were very impressive this year and their success was no surprise to those within the county. They’ve had plenty of time to celebrate their win and prepare for this tie, while Coalisland are still hot on the heels of their championship win.

Roslea will need goals to sneak this game but they have goalscoring threats in Niall Cosgrove and Seamus Quigley, and at a very generous 3/1, they could be worth a speculative 1pt punt.

It was interesting to note the coverage, reaction and assessment of Ireland’s performance in the First Test of the International Rules Series last weekend. Admittedly the sport is neither duck nor drake, but I’ll leave others to argue its merits or otherwise. Generally the consensus was that Ireland were fortunate to get within seven points and keep the series alive. Ireland’s lack of accuracy was, ahem, widely ridiculed and rightly so. The default jibe of the wag was to question whether the ball was actually oval rather than round as the Australians had a greater success rate when attempting to split the posts.

There have been all sorts of recriminations and theories knocking around as to why Australia kicked for scores more accurately than Ireland, but what I haven’t yet heard acknowledged is that this is absolutely nothing new.

Historically, Australia have exceeded Ireland in converting more of their shooting opportunities as overs rather than behinds. It’s instructive that coming in to the test at Limerick, Ireland had kicked more behinds than overs in five of the 16 tests this decade, they kicked an equal number twice, and managed to get the ball between the target more often than not on the other nine occasions. In the starkest of contrasts, Australia have managed to land on target more often than not in 15 out of those 16 same tests. They are better kickers whether it be round ball, oval ball or I expect, half-filled buckets of sand that meet their feet.

Where there is mis-perception, there is generally an opportunity for profit, and so ladies and gentlemen, Ladbrokes.com present the “Overs v Behinds” market!

We offer 4/6 for Ireland to score more overs than behinds, 11/10 the other side and 10/1 for them to score an equal amount of each. Australia are 2/9 to score more overs than behinds, 11/4 to have a wayward night in front of the posts, and also a 10/1 chance to score an equal amount of three pointers and single scores.

Away from the floodlit glamour of Croke Park, and to the frosty score-shy fields of the Ulster Championship.

Coalisland have just emerged from the attrition fest that is the Tyrone Championship. I expect they’ll also throttle the life out of the game with Roslea, but the Fermanagh side are probably a better than evens chance given the 3 point start on the hcap. A 0-9 to 0-7 scoreline wouldn’t surprise anyone.

Crossmaglen’s reputation rightly precedes them, and home advantage is exactly what it means, but I think St Galls could end up a few ticks shorter than the 4/6 I’m offering. They look like they have all the appetite and ability needed to record back to back All Irelands. I’ll be looking to lay South Armagh’s finest at 13/8, bigger if I have to!

Another home side I’m taking on this weekend is Naomh Conaill at 13/10. I will be made eat my words and possibly clear my office if the Donegal men win this championship but I think Clontibret’s recent experience in the provincial championship will see them through.

Punt On!

We released our prices for the Ulster Senior Club Football Championship this week at Ladbrokes and I can’t imagine too many people will need prising from the floor in shock at seeing St Galls at the head of market. The Belfast club’s All-Ireland success last St Patrick’s Day was followed up a few weeks back by a nine point win over Cargin in the Antrim Final, suggesting that the spring serving of medals hasn’t spoiled Galls’ appetite for winter football.

It’s possible we are witness to the emergence a Crossmaglen-like dynasty. With the county now truly conquered into servile obedience, attention turns to retention of provincial spoils. Should Crossmaglen manage to overcome the challenge of Dromintee in the Armagh Final then they will set up an Ulster quarter-final meeting with St Galls. What an encounter this would be. A plucky confident new champion taking on a past master struggling to find the easy groove of former glory – Foreman v Ali? We offer 5/1 that Cross rope-a-dope Galls on the way to reclaiming their Ulster crown.

Next in the betting are Eoghan Rua Coleraine and Clontibret. We’ve put both of these in at odds of 7/1. Coleraine’s odds may look a little, cautious, as I’d say – or downright mean, as you’d say – when you consider that as first time winners of the Derry title this is their first venture in to senior provincial football.

Often when a club goes a generation, or in the case of Coleraine – an eternity – before winning the county title, there’s a sense that the battle is won, the glory is total and the provincial game will be a nice day out. The record of Derry clubs in this competition dictates it would be foolish to think Coleraine will adopt that attitude. The players will have plenty of time to blow off a little steam before knuckling down for a trip to face the Down champions. Derry’s representatives have reached the Ulster final in seven of the last ten years.

While I’m dishing out the stats it is worth noting that of the last seven finals only one of the 14 finalists has come from outside Derry, Antrim or Armagh. That was Mayobridge in 2004. I can guarantee that the dominance of those three counties will be broken this year – the draw has seen to that. There will be one team from either Tyrone, Fermanagh, Monaghan, Cavan or Donegal in this year’s final. Shrewd punters will have worked this out already of course and it will not escape their attention that all bar Clontibret are available at double figure odds at this stage.

If we are to take the view that Kingscourt and Naomh Conaill are not especially outstanding champions in their county then the obvious thing to do is to draw a line through them. You may say the same for Roslea. Neither Cavan nor Fermanagh has ever spawned a provincial champion, while you have to go back to 1975 to find Donegal’s last winner and, to be fair, the Ulster Club Championship wasn’t half as prestigious a title back then.

The expectation for this half of the draw is that the Tyrone and Monaghan champions would meet in a semi-final. Clontibret having the experience of a recent Ulster campaign behind them catch the eye in that scenario. Adding further weight to their case is that they defeated Tyrone’s champions Dromore last season before getting tonked by Galls. Dromore aren’t in the mix this year and Tyrone will be represented by either Coalisland or the winner of the rescheduled county semi between Omagh and Carrickmore.

Tyrone’s rise as an inter-county superpower hasn’t yet been the tide that floated all boats in O’Neill country. Indeed since Mickey Harte started turning senior teams out in September the club sides have failed to reach a senior provincial final and the Errigal Ciaran heady days that marked the turn of the century don’t look like returning to the county just yet.

I think getting behind a team from the weaker side of the draw could prove a profitable strategy, one that should create a hedging opportunity down the road if all goes to plan. Clontibret my pick.

Punt On!

With a good handful of county champions already decided, a few select clubs are already looking towards the winter, planning their assault on the All Ireland club football championships. As with every year, there is a good mix of clubs who are simply delighted to take their county crown, and then there are those who will be looking a lot further, keen to make an impression at provincial and All Ireland level.

Up north in particular, there are a large number of clubs who can be all but dismissed in terms of assessing potential All Ireland winners. Naomh Conaill, Roslea, Kingscourt, Coleraine and anyone bar Carrickmore in Tyrone and Mayobridge from Down would be teams that simply wouldn’t have the tools to progress in the All Ireland series. Even Carrickmore and Mayobridge are likely to have extended too much energy getting through their county series in a short space of time if they do manage to do so, so realistically, the only potential All Ireland winners up north are St. Galls, Crossmaglen Rangers and possibly, Clontibret.

Galls are the short price favourites, and rightly so. They have a tough draw in Ulster, starting with an away trip to Armagh, but they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for this stage, and it goes without saying that as champions, they have proven that they are capable of travelling this journey. If they can come out of Crossmaglen with a win, they will be 1/3 or shorter for every other game in Ulster, while the lopsided draw in Leinster leaves an outside possibility of a handy All Ireland semi final as well. Realistically they probably will work out at 4/1 or more by multiplying their match prices the whole way through, but they are deservedly clear front runners.

Crossmaglen appeared to find a rich vein of form at times this year, but they struggled to overcome Cullyhanna in the Armagh semi final and failing to exert themselves properly in the replay was a concern. Their final against Dromintee is unlikely to be as straightforward as many might expect, so they won’t be thinking of Ulster or All Ireland titles at all yet.

They have tradition on their side and a great blend of youth and experience, but they have lost a few key players while many of their younger stars are unproven at the higher levels. Based on the fact that they should be no shorter than 1/3 to win Armagh and at least 2/1 to get past Galls,they’d have to be a 5/2 shot for the All Ireland with four games to go for 14/1 to represent value and that doesn’t look likely.

As mentioned, the wild cards are Clontibret. It’s been nearly twenty years since a Monaghan team won the Ulster club title and the 2009 Monaghan champions still have to cross a tough county final hurdle with Magheracloone and Tommy Freeman lying in wait. Nonetheless they’ve been to this stage of proceedings before and will have learned a lot from their chastening experience at the hands of Galls last year. A home tie against the winners of Kingscourt Stars and Naomh Conaill would be a good range finder and they are strong possibilities to contest an Ulster Club final this year. Of all the outsiders from that province, they make the most appeal.

The Leinster draw is perhaps the most lopsided, with Laois, Dublin and Kildare set to contribute one provincial semi finalist between them. Longford, Wexford, Louth and Carlow can all be dismissed from long term calculations here while Rathnew are not the force they once were, meaning that a lot of strength has been put in one small sector. Ladbrokes’ book is taking almost 27% from the teams still left in that quarter for the draw, meaning that whoever comes out of there would have to be 11/4 to win the All Ireland with four games to go – simply not going to happen.

Of the other counties, Skryne cannot be dismissed on account of their experience and the overall strength of the Meath championship, but they too look a little weak, particularly in the defensive sector. Rhode and Clara are two strong clubs and the winner of this tie is well placed to reach a Leinster final, though right now it’s difficult to predict which of the two will reach that stage. Either club would look on Leinster as a real opportunity, however the current Rhode training regime is somewhat worrying – they cannot be expected to maintain four nights a week for much longer.

Perhaps a more interesting selection is Garrycastle, also priced at 40/1. The east Athlone club have had a few forays into Leinster and reached the final last year, narrowly losing out to Portlaoise. They’ve a nice draw with home ties against Longford Slashers and Mattock Rangers lying between them and a Leinster semi final and at the price offered, they stand out as the best betting option in the province right now.

The Munster club football championship spent 39 years as almost the exclusive domain of Cork and Kerry teams, with only the Pat Spillane inspired Thomond College breaking the run in 1977, and Doonbeg of Clare in 1998. Then, in the last six years, there have been three winners from elsewhere in Munster – Kilmurry/Ibrickane twice, and Dromcollogher/Broadford of Limerick. An outside case could be made for Stradbally of Waterford this year, but other than them, it looks to be going back to the two big counties.

In Kerry, both Dr Crokes and Austin Stacks are famous clubs who could go on a run, but crucially, Dr Crokes have been on the All Ireland stage before and know what it takes. Having beaten South Kerry last weekend, the Killarney club are flying high and they look like the better betting option by far. 8/1 and 14/1 about the two teams would be better reflected by 8/1 and 28/1 – Stacks would have a lot to do to go further than winning Kerry.

In Cork, Nemo Rangers’ reputation has seen them installed as 8/1 second favourites also, but nothing that they’ve done in 2010 so far suggests that they’re back to where they were in the middle part of this decade. They have a couple of tough games ahead, including a semi final meeting with 2009 champions Clonakilty, before they even get out of Cork. If they were 4/5 to win Cork and 4/5 to win Munster, that makes them 15/8 or shorter at All Ireland semi final stage. Not way wrong, but not value nonetheless.Indeed the Barrs at 28/1 might be a more interesting proposition if they do make it out of Cork, but there are better long shots out there.

We finally look to Connacht, where the 2009 Galway and Connacht champions Corofin are still going strong. Ballintubber and Castlebar will compete in a novel Mayo final on Sunday October 24th, and though Mayo clubs have a very strong record in Connacht, these two don’t look ready to take on Corofin (or Killererin) and win. St Brigids too cannot be discounted, and they look well placed to reach a Connacht decider with only Eastern Harps and Glencar/Manorhamilton lying in their way. At 16/1, they look like the best value selection out in the West, with plenty of depth and a strong range of scoring options. That price will look doubly attractive if Corofin slip up between now and the Connacht final, which is unlikely but not impossible.

For real GAA enthusiasts, it’s difficult not to get caught up in the romance of the All Ireland club finals. No single day in the GAA calendar has such a wonderful tradition of throwing up pairings that can whet the appetite for a variety of reasons, and in 2010, the pairings couldn’t be better if they were chosen by hand at the start of the year. The hurling contest sees two of the most celebrated clubs in the land going head to head in the final pairing that everyone wanted to see since last year’s one-sided semi final in Thurles. Each side will line out with one of the best hurlers of the modern day in their starting forward line, and with wonderfully contrasting approaches in terms of how to hurl and create scores. They represent East vs West and the game also serves as an excellent form guide in advance of Galway’s assault on Kilkenny’s Leinster crown later this year.

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In a summer that was collectively a little short on romance, the progression of the Antrim footballers to their first Ulster final in generations was perhaps the high point for those in search of feelgood stories. Indeed even the most hardened of GAA supporters would find it difficult not to enjoy scenes like these . One swallow does not make a summer however, and looking at the prices chalked up for the meeting of St Galls and Clontibret this weekend, one could be forgiven for wondering if the compilers were getting a bit carried away by Antrim fever, and forgetting that this is still the same county that lived in the doldrums for so long.

St Galls are an excellent club team and worthy favourites this weekend, but 9/4 outsiders against a very decent Clontibret O’Neills team is simply incorrect. Due to their consistency in Ulster competition in recent seasons and allied to the absence of many traditionally powerful clubs, Galls were well fancied to lift this Ulster crown from early on. Two solid but unspectacular wins over Cavan Gaels and Pearse Óg have confirmed what we already knew – that the Belfast club will not go down easily.

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While Croke Park will be hosting three All Ireland finals this Sunday, it’s probably not unreasonable that for most of the GAA membership all across the country this weekend, the real focus will be on the club fixtures that are being played all across Ireland. The weekend in between All-Ireland finals is traditionally one where counties put busy programmes in place and this weekend is no different, with several very interesting betting opportunities resulting from the wide range of fixtures being played.

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